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发表于 2008-5-22 12:35
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EUR USD« Previous Entries
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EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, European Session - 15/01/0801 15th, 2008
1,4865. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The uptrend should continue on 1,4950 (80 pips) resistance. Resistances 1,4915 - 1,4950 Supports 1,4860 - 1,4820
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, Asian Session - 14/01/0801 14th, 2008
1,4871. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H, 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The uptrend should continue on 1,4950 (80 pips) resistance. Resistances 1,4915 - 1,4950 Supports 1,4850 - 1,4820
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, American Session - 14/01/0801 14th, 2008
1,4895. EUR USD broke 1,4820 resistance. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The uptrend should continue on 1,4950 (60 pips) resistance. Resistances 1,4915 - 1,4950 Supports 1,4850 - 1,4820
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, European Session - 14/01/0801 14th, 2008
1,4814. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 4H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The consolidation should continue. The price should find a resistance below 1,4820. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 1,4950 (130 pips). Resistances 1,4820 - 1,4845 Supports 1,4790 - 1,4760
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, American Session - 11/01/0801 11th, 2008
1,4792. EUR USD broke 1,4760 resistance. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 4H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The uptrend should continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 1,4900 (100 pips). Resistances 1,4815 - 1,4860 Supports 1,4750 - 1,4700
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, European Session - 11/01/0801 11th, 2008
1,4812. EUR USD broke 1,4750 resistance. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 4H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. ForexTrend 1H, 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The uptrend should continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 1,4900 (100 pips). Resistances 1,4815 - 1,4860 Supports 1,4750 - 1,4700
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, European Session - 10/01/0801 10th, 2008
1,4688. EUR USD is in a range between 1,4660 and 1,4740. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won’t take a position. Resistances 1,4700 - 1,4740 Supports 1,4660 - 1,4650
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, Asian Session - 09/01/0801 9th, 2008
1,4663. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. EUR USD is in a range between 1,4660 and 1,4770. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. 1H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on EUR USD. The consolidation should continue. The price should find a support above 1,4650 / 1,4660. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,4550. We won’t take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position.. Resistances 1,4700 - 1,4735 Supports 1,4660 - 1,4650
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, American Session - 09/01/0801 9th, 2008
1,4681. EUR USD is in a range between 1,4660 and 1,4770. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. 1H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on EUR USD. The price should continue to move in 1,4660 / 1,4760 range. We won’t take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position.. Resistances 1,4700 - 1,4735 Supports 1,4660 - 1,4650
Source : EUR USD
Published in EUR USD | No Comments »
Weekly Picture of the EURUSD,01 9th, 2008
This weekly picture of the current situation in the EURUSD pair seems to be more clear than usual if we look a bit backward in its immediate history. A nice impulsive move, from the 1.34 price area (August 2007) up to the climax of an extended wave 5 at the 1.50 price area (November 2007), gave no doubt about the weakness of the US Dollar. In fact, the American currency was considered “finished” and the sentiment indicators were so extended to the negative, that the start of the reversal was a bit surprising.
At the time, we said that we do not see the fundamentals backing the price move but that we were sure that they will follow shortly. Even the best contrarian traders, that showed us popular magazines front covers, with the US Dollar going down in flames, had some misgivings about the possibility of a rebound soon, but as usual, when least expected, the US Dollar did its thing and came back.
We usually monitor its strength by the behavior of the USD Dollar index in which the EURO is overwhelmingly dominant. So, in short, the EURUSD should be the most important pair to look when analyzing the USD situation and this week, is one of the most interesting and, as we said, seemingly easy. So what is the Technical Analysis picture?
- The first leg of the correction took the price 4 weeks and brought it to the exact 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (1.435). The same place was also one of the parallels (dotted lines) of the main ascending channel of the whole bull campaign. We can see, again, how a combination of TA elements gives nearly a 100% good result.
- The last two tops, top of wave 5 and top of B, are creating the upper boundary of the new governing pattern here: a descending channel. The lower boundary anchor is the bottom of A, of course.
- Wave B of the correction was constructed with two candles only (two weeks) while the fist one is showing how violent and forceful is the mood of the USD bears.
- Besides being short and violent, wave B was also deep and went up to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, which is a popular retracement level when this pair is changing course at tops or bottoms. Deep retracements are showing to us that the believers in the last trend do not buy the reversal at hand and try to revert to the good old days.
- The most logical short term price action should be a C, of the ABC combination, that should bring the pair near the 61.8% level. Again, we look for combinations and we can find the lower boundary of the descending channel and the incoming 200 DMA in the same general area (Blue arrow).
In conclusion: A short-medium term trader should be more bearish than bullish in this junction. Only a decisive move over the top of B (1.485) would negate our assumptions and prove again that something that can look easy is in fact deceptive.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-22 15:44 编辑 ] |
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An important support broke on USD/CAD, 
