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发表于 2008-5-21 18:35
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Hanging Man
• Direction: Bearish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Moderate to Weak
• In a uptrend a red or blue day occurs with a body in the upper part of the sessions range, a long lower wick, and little to no upper wick
• Analysts do not care of the small candle is red or blue
The Hanging Man formation indicates trend exhaustion, and suggests a bearish reversal. After a bullish rally the day opens with a significant sell-off, creating a long bottom wick. However, buyers are able to push prices back to the upper range, creating a short body.
The meaning of the candle is a bit ambiguous. Even though sellers brought the market to low lows, in the end buyers brought the close price back up near the market open price. Overall this candlestick serves as an early indication that buyers are losing control and bearish traders are gaining strength.
Since the signal alone is fairly weak, traders look for a number of characteristics to reinforce the bearish signal.
In ideal conditions traders want the wick length to be several times longer than the body of the candle. The longer the candle, the stronger sellers were able to drive price down and the stronger the bearish signal this candle provides.
Although above we state that most analysts do not care if the small candle is red or blue, traders will actually take a red candle to suggest a slightly stronger bearish signal. Sellers being unable to bring the close price below the open price suggest stronger bearish control.
The bearish Dragonfly Doji serves as a stronger sell signal than the Hanging Man pattern. Since a Dragonfly candle (where open and close are identical, but we see a low similar in length to the Hanging Man) reflects more uncertainly and lack of direction, candlestick analysts will usually take it as a stronger bear signal.
• Hammer vs Hanging Man.
Alone, Hammer and Hanging Man candles look identical. Their difference lies in what type of trend the candle follows. If the market had been trending up for a while the formation is a Hanging Man. In fact the name, Hanging Man, suggest price is hanging over a precipice, ready for a fall. Hammers follow a bearish trending market and its name suggests price has already been weighted down.
Although traders will usually wait for confirmation the next day, look for selling opportunities to come.
Bearish Harami
• Direction: Bearish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Weak
• First day is long blue candle continuing an established uptrend.
• Day-two is a small candle or start whose range is within the first days body, above its midpoint.
Bearish Haramis are characterized by a long blue day followed by a small candle, also refers to as a star. The trading range of the star stays within the body of the previous days candle. The significance of this formation is quite clear, as price continues its uptrend it is halted by a bearish candle.
Bearish Haramis are very weak in signal strength though, since even in a strong bull trend it is very reasonable to see a sell-off that pulls price back down from highs. Longs paring off their exposure may cause this. Thus candlestick analysts will watch for bearish days to come, but probably not bet on them.
In non-FX markets gaps seen above that allow the star to occur deep within the body of the first days candle are typical. Such gaps are just not possible in Foreign Exchange Markets. Since the Forex Market version of this candle is more nuanced, traders pay attention to several details.
This formation is very similar to the Bearhish Engulfing formation, except that the Harami move does not trade below the previous candles body. Because Harami sellers are not able to drive price much past the previous days midpoint, this patterns offers a weaker signal.
In range bound markets this formation will occur frequently with little significance. But if this pattern occurs after a protracted uptrend, analysts will attach greater importance to it.
Lastly if this does turn out to be a reversal pattern the high of the two candles will likely turn into a significant resistance level.
Bearish Harami Cross & Notes on Bearish Harami
• Direction: Bearish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Weak
• First day is long blue candle continuing an established trend.
• Day-two is a small candle completely within the range of the first day's body.
This first possible version of this formation is characterized by a long blue day followed by a doji cross that falls within the body of the previous day's candle. Up to this point the formation matches the bearish Doji Star (see above). The doji illustrates a light day of trading where the open and the close are at the same price. A day of uncertainty after a large bullish move suggests bulls may have lost control of the market. Candlestick analysts will watch for bearish moves in the following days.
In non-FX markets gaps that allow the doji to occur deep within the body of the first day's candle are typical - But such gaps are just not possible in Foreign Exchange Markets. Because the close of the first day would match the open of the second day, in the Forex Market this formation should look more like a Hanging Man candle (see below).
Since the Forex Market version of this candle is more nuanced, traders pay attention to several details.
Bearish Harami Cross turns into simply Bearish Harami
Translating non-FX markets into Foreign Exchange requires getting rid of any gaps between candles. No matter what market we are looking at, FX, Equity and Futures markets typically close at 5:00pm. Thus the FX version of this formation should have a small red candle that trades down within the body of the previous bull move.
Bearish Doji Cross | Bearish Harami Cross in FX | Bearish Harami in FX | Bearish Engulfing  |
This formation is very similar to the Bearish Engulfing formation, except that the move does not trade below the blue candle's body. Because Harami sellers are not able to drive price down more than in the Bearish Engulfing formation, this patterns offers a weaker signal.
In range bound markets this patterns occurs far more frequently with little significance. But if this formation occurs after a protracted bull move analysts will put attach greater significance to it. |
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