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发表于 2008-5-21 18:49
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Bearish Falling Three Methods
• Direction: Bearish
• Type: Continuation
• Reliability: Strong
• In a downtrend, a long red day occurs
• The second, third and fourth days are short blue days that fall within the range of the first day
• The fifth day continues the downtrend with a long red candle that creates new lows
The Falling Three Methods pattern occurs in a bear market, where during a downtrend the market rests before resuming the trend. The bearish trends break is reflected by small candles that all stick to a strict market range formed by the aggressive move on day one.
A typical explanation for this type of formation might that the market is slowly digesting the relatively larger move in day-one. These small daily ranges often precede significant economic reports. Such periods of relative inactivity and tight trading are common in markets. Falling Three Methods is confirmed where a red candle dives down to new lows reinstituting the bearish trend.
Number of Middle Candles - In a picture perfect formation the middle candles number three. But realistically the pattern may have two, four or even five candles. Individually each middle candle may be a star or doji, red or blue.
Middle Candle Wicks - Important to note is that each middle candle wick needs to stay within the first candles high/low range to signal a strong continuation signal. With the bearish Falling Three Methods this is especially important for the highs. Should a wick trade to a high above the first large red candles high, it casts doubt over the strength of the established down trend.
Bearish Gravestone Doji
• Direction: Bearish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Moderate to Weak
• After an established bull trend a blue candle forms, closing at the upper trading range near the days high
• The second day can be a doji day (identical open and close). The upper wick of the second day should be fairly long.
• The lower wick of the second day should be non-existent or very little.
In a bullish trending market the gravestone illustrates an unsustainable bull rally where price drives up to new highs in trading on day two, but sellers take control by market close.
Although this formation is a moderate to weak in signal strength, it is a warning for longs that the uptrend is losing momentum and bears may retake the market soon.
Most candlestick analysts will wait to confirm the signal, watching for a red candle for day three. Such confirmation could come in the form of the consistent bearish Evening Star pattern.
The Gravestone Doji pattern is similar to the Doji star, except its second day is characterized by a gravestone (doji with a high high and low equal to open and close prices) rather than just a doji. The Gravestone Doji is less reliable since the rally on day-two suggests bulls may still be in control of the market, despite the recent sell-off. Where the Doji Star offers a stronger signal of uncertainty of possible reversal in trend.
In non-FX markets traders accept a gap between day one and day two (a seen in the equity example above). Since such gaps are unlikely in the 24 hour Forex Market, when this pattern is translated into FX the gravestone could also appear like a shooting star and still be of the same signal strength.
Regarding strength of signal, the more day-twos candle looks like a Doji the more it reflects sellers taking control of the bull rally, and the stronger the bearish signal.
Bearish Harami
• Direction: Bearish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Weak
• First day is long blue candle continuing an established uptrend.
• Day-two is a small candle or start whose range is within the first days body, above its midpoint.
Bearish Haramis are characterized by a long blue day followed by a small candle, also refers to as a star. The trading range of the star stays within the body of the previous days candle. The significance of this formation is quite clear, as price continues its uptrend it is halted by a bearish candle.
Bearish Haramis are very weak in signal strength though, since even in a strong bull trend it is very reasonable to see a sell-off that pulls price back down from highs. Longs paring off their exposure may cause this. Thus candlestick analysts will watch for bearish days to come, but probably not bet on them.
In non-FX markets gaps seen above that allow the star to occur deep within the body of the first days candle are typical. Such gaps are just not possible in Foreign Exchange Markets. Since the Forex Market version of this candle is more nuanced, traders pay attention to several details.
This formation is very similar to the Bearhish Engulfing formation, except that the Harami move does not trade below the previous candles body. Because Harami sellers are not able to drive price much past the previous days midpoint, this patterns offers a weaker signal.
In range bound markets this formation will occur frequently with little significance. But if this pattern occurs after a protracted uptrend, analysts will attach greater importance to it.
Lastly if this does turn out to be a reversal pattern the high of the two candles will likely turn into a significant resistance level.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-21 18:51 编辑 ] |
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