边走边看

andar

#*)*#

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-2-17 21:05 编辑 ]

jjr448

姑且勿论正统顶底，我只强调第5浪延长，

andar

本人2006年9月中旬就已经预期大盘将走出第5浪延长。
然而，直到2007年末期才看到亚龙湾的强贴。

这告诉大家一个什么道理哪？#*31*#
我想，太多时候，尤其关键时刻，在浪坛里是很难找到正确答案的。
过去如此，现在还是一样。

jjr448

你支持牙笼湾走大牛？姑且勿论正确与否，用两个号互相吹擂用心不正，反推技术，，，
我认为3067下来也要走5浪延长4月底见底2000下方

andar

6124前的问题是一回事，
2132后的问题是另一回事，
两个号、三个号、N个号则纯属个人自由偏好，
岂可混为一谈？

再说，亚龙湾说过2132后走大牛吗？只记得，我和他讨论过这个问题，当时我说，2132后并非大牛，而是诱多，首选与1307---1783时一样。看看亚龙湾近期开的第一个帖子，应该很清楚。

当然，完整地说，应为双首选，另一首选则看三角形的最后一次上踢腿。
何去何从，随缘，随缘。

顺便，本人并未将3067做为5浪起点。

jjr448

他的4000，7000不是大牛吗？另外我说的5浪延长是指3067开始的下跌应该象998-61z4和6124一1664，和1664-3478都发生第5浪延长，在4月底完成。另外我也赞成6124开始的下跌应该象2245-998模式，4月底5月初才开始运行1307-17xx那段，预计会升穿3478与3186连线之后再下跌，6124整个下跌估计要到2014年尾或2015年。按照公式90+n*60=1530至1600

[ 本帖最后由 jjr448 于 2012-2-18 17:10 编辑 ]

jjr448

-QUOTE:原帖由老山东于 2012-2-7 17:47 发表 此图浪画的合理，只是7000点有点意外，《反弹浪的C往往短于A》的说法你怎么看？根据波浪理论998--6124是个五浪延长，A要回撤到五浪的起点1700-1800附近，结果1665～B浪再走一个回撤超过前期高点6124～！根据B浪计算规则，高点是7100和7700可以选择～！能把指数推到这样高，唯独只有银行集体蹦高可以做到～！！所以，嘿嘿～我就不说了～牙混混坚信艾略特波浪理论的无比正确性，坚信可以看到7100点以上～！

[ 本帖最后由 jjr448 于 2012-2-18 19:49 编辑 ]

andar

谢谢你把老山东的帖子找出来。我与亚兄的讨论应该是在他自己的帖子里。但关于6124的处理，以及以后的市场行为，本人并未有机会与他充分交流，因此，也就不清楚亚兄的完整浪型轮廓。

就简单谈一下我的首选吧：
1，6124是一非正统顶。
2，以6124为非正统顶的调整，也就是对第5浪延长的那波上攻的调整，至1664业已彻底完结。

andar

你瞧，是否做正统顶、底处理，确实很关键。
此外，你把3067作为3186以来c浪或3浪的起点的做法并不一定合适，应该还有别的处理方法。

jjr448

原帖由  于 2012-2-19 12:01 发表 你瞧，是否做正统顶、底处理，确实很关键。此外，你把3067作为3186以来c浪或3浪的起点的做法并不一定合适，应该还有别的处理方法。

数浪时我很注意4倍时间，998-6124,6124-1664,1664-3478都隐约有4分时间和谐关系2245-998的4分时间应用到6124-后，看3067比3186位置更重要，况且6124--1664的时间起伏为63日（6124-5500）而3067开始的下跌起伏也是63我波浪讲不胜，输打赢要动粗了，哈哈

[ 本帖最后由 jjr448 于 2012-2-19 14:16 编辑 ]

andar

我是一个彻底的艾略特原教旨主义者。

在浪坛，我不断提醒：艾略特铁律在逻辑上是完备、自恰的，WXYZ理论画蛇添足，本质上是反艾略特理论的，同样性质的奇谈怪论还有“引导”，等等。但收效甚微，反艾略特的阵容强大啊。
成也萧何，败也萧何是也。普莱切特整理了艾略特波浪理论文献，居功至伟。但同时，他也把自己的缺乏科学素养、反艾略特理论的“WXYZ”、“引导”等荒诞学说推向了世界，毒害了一大批人，又是艾略特波浪理论的敌人。
本来用艾略特波浪理论数浪就是个累活，普莱切特的追随者们又来添乱，真是不胜其烦。

当然，解决的办法总还是有的，再建个【普莱切特波浪研究交流】论坛吧，与【艾略特波浪研究交流】论坛来个社会主义劳动竞赛还是可以的。

andar

回到市场。
大家知道那些因素最为关键，它竟导致中央银行在1月份CPI反弹的情况下最终下决心降低存款准备金率吗？我想，除了近期金融市场资金紧张的因素外，1月份PPI逼近通缩是一个，而1月份企业价格指数WPI陷入通缩（我年初预测）则是另一个关键因素。
近两年来，中国的中央银行将其统计的企业价格指数（WPI）的发布期向后推迟了一个月左右，比如，要想知道今年1月份的企业价格指数（WPI）变动情况，要耐心等到3月份到中央银行网站上才能查到。
中国的中央银行还是有点邪门歪道的，这是其中一个。

andar

工行直奔两年来的新高而去，顶一个！

andar

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in January to the highest level since May 2010 as investors took advantage of lower prices to buy distressed properties.

Purchases climbed 4.3 percent to a 4.57 million annual rate, less than forecast, from a revised 4.38 million pace in December that was slower than previously estimated, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Distressed properties made up the largest portion of all purchases since April.

Almost one in four of all transactions was made by investors. That’s helping to clear the market of unsold properties and may stabilize prices. While the threat of more foreclosures risks slowing progress, housing may get a boost from gains in employment and mortgage rates that are near record lows.

andar

By the way, the foreclosure crisis is unlikely to subside any time soon. Owners of more than 14 million homes are in foreclosure, behind on their mortgages or owe more than their properties are worth.

andar

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits were unchanged last week, holding at the lowest level since the early days of the 2007-2009 recession and giving a fresh sign the battered labor market is healing.

Workers filed 351,000 initial claims for state unemployment benefits, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 351,000 from the previously reported 348,000.

The last two weekly readings have been the lowest since March 2008. The four-week moving average for new claims, a measure of labor market trends, fell 7,000 to 359,000 - also the lowest since March 2008.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims rising to 354,000.

With weekly claims approaching levels last seen before the recession that began in December 2007, economists say employers might be close to ending a long cycle of heavy layoffs, laying the ground for more hiring.

Already, the jobless rate has fallen sharply, dropping to 8.3 percent in January from 9.1 percent in August. Job gains have exceeded 200,000 for two straight months.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has left benchmark interest rates near zero since December 2008 to coax companies into hiring, and the recent improvement in the labor market has dampened expectations of further monetary stimulus.

A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in last week's data, although claims were estimated for three states, including California.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 52,000 to 3.392 million in the week ended February 11 from a revised reading of 3.444 million. The drop left continuing claims at their lowest level since August 2008.

浪翁

#*)*#

[ 本帖最后由 浪翁 于 2012-2-24 13:29 编辑 ]

andar

预测有风险，听者须谨慎。

随着中央银行公布今年1月份企业商品价格（WPI）同比通胀率为1.3%，本人年初发布的“1月份中国生产、批发领域将陷入通缩”预测落空。春节漂移的力量巨大。

特此，更新一下预测：
1，从2012年2月份开始，中国PPI或生产领域将进入同比通缩通道，为期2、3个季度左右。
2，从2012年2月份开始，中国WPI或批发领域将进入同比通缩通道，为期2、3个季度左右。
3，来自于生产与批发环节的这种通缩压力将很快传导至最终消费环节，从而形成轻度而短促的全面通缩。消费环节的轻度通缩大约维持两个季度左右，大概在今年5月份---10月份显现。

andar

昨日，深证B指率先升破与上证综指2661对应点位，或上破其888以来abc下跌之c浪1之低点。
上证综指首轮上攻可能性很多，上破2661的可能性不能排除。

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-2-28 13:57 编辑 ]

andar

Date Time (ET)    Statistic                                        For  Actual     Prior  
Feb 28 8:30 AM   Durable Orders                             Jan  -4.0%     3.2%
Feb 28 8:30 AM   Durable Orders -ex Transportation  Jan  -3.2%     2.1%
Feb 28 9:00 AM   Case-Shiller 20-city Index              Dec  -4.0%    -3.8%
Feb 28 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence                    Feb   70.8      61.5  

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A strengthening jobs market helped lift U.S. consumer confidence to a one-year high this month, but a surprisingly large plunge in orders for some factory goods cast a cloud over signs of increased economic momentum.

HIGH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
The spike in the Conference Board's monthly gauge of economic confidence, which rose more than expected to a reading of 70.8, could mean consumers will open their wallets more readily in coming months, analysts said.
The report by the Conference Board, a private business research group, showed confidence had yet to be badly hit by a rise in gasoline prices, while consumers are beginning to believe in an improving labor environment.
About 38.7 percent of respondents in the Conference Board survey said jobs were hard to get this month, down from 43.3 percent in January. The share of consumers viewing jobs as plentiful rose to 6.6 percent from 6.2 percent the prior month.

CORE ORDERS ALSO WEAK
The readings on confidence contrasted with a government report that showed orders for long-lasting factory goods fell the most in three years in January.
The Commerce Department data also pointed to a potential scaling back of business investment, which would undermine a pillar of the country's recovery from the 2007-2009 recession.
New orders for durable goods dropped 4.0 percent last month, the biggest decline since January 2009. Demand slipped across the board - from machinery and appliances to airplanes.
Data on durable goods can be volatile, and January's weakness followed strong gains in December and November. Some analysts said the weakness last month was likely due to one-time factors like the expiration of some tax breaks.
The drop, however, was much sharper than expected.
"We are seeing a slowdown in domestic demand for equipment and also slower overseas demand," said Christopher Low, an economist at FTN Financial in New York.
Weaker export demand highlights one of the chief risks facing the U.S. economy: a festering debt crisis in Europe that could lead to fewer orders for American manufacturers.
Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for future business investment, fell 4.5 percent, the steepest drop in a year. Machinery orders dropped 10.4 percent, the largest decline since January 2009.
A 6.1 percent drop in bookings for transportation equipment - including a 19 percent fall in civilian aircraft orders - dragged on the overall reading for durable goods. Boeing received 150 orders for aircraft during the month, down from 287 in December.

COLD HOUSING STILL
A third report cast doubt on the strength of an incipient housing market recovery .
The S&P/Case Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent in December from November and a hefty 4.0 percent from a year earlier. The 20-city index registered its lowest reading since January 2003.
Analysts said the drop, which came despite relatively upbeat signs for home building and sales in recent weeks, likely reflected downward pressure from an ongoing wave of foreclosures.
"It is really a tough market for these prices to make any progress," said Sean Incremona, an economist at 4Cast Ltd in New York.

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-2-29 09:56 编辑 ]