边走边看

andar

U.S. Business Activity Improves in Sign Demand to Sustain Growth: Economy

By Bob Willis and Alex Kowalski - Mar 1, 2012 5:05 AM GMT+0800

Companies took in more orders and stepped up production in February, a sign demand will sustain the U.S. expansion after a fourth-quarter pickup.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer climbed to a 10-month high of 64 from 60.2 in January. Readings above 50 signal expansion and the figure exceeded all forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Commerce Department raised its growth estimate for the final three months of 2011, to 3 percent from 2.8 percent.

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy expanded more than forecast in the fourth quarter as companies rebuilt inventories in anticipation of growing demand. Gross domestic product climbed at a revised 3 percent annual rate, the most since the second quarter of 2010, Commerce Department figures showed today. Betty Liu reports on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke delivers his semi-annual report on monetary policy to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. (This report contains opening statements. Source: Bloomberg)
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Income gains in the second half of 2011 were stronger than previously reported, which may bolster household purchases that make up 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled today to Congress that recent signs of strength won’t change the central bank’s view that low rates are necessary through 2014.

“We’re continuing to see moderate economic expansion driven by an improvement in the labor market,” said Conrad DeQuadros, a senior economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York. “Even with growth at 3 percent, the Fed remains concerned about the outlook with the unemployment rate high, and that’s the driver of their highly accommodative monetary policy.”

Stocks fell as Bernanke gave no indication of more quantitative easing to stimulate the world’s largest economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.5 percent to 1,365.66 at the close in New York.

While describing “positive developments” in the labor market, Bernanke said during the first day of his semi-annual monetary policy report that “the job market remains far from normal.”

Bernanke on Labor Market

“At present, with the unemployment rate elevated and the inflation outlook subdued, the committee judges that sustaining a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy is consistent with promoting both objectives” of the Fed for stable prices and maximum employment, Bernanke said today in prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.

At the same time, he gave no signal that more policy easing is under consideration. Recent data, including today’s, shows the economy is picking up.

Economists projected the Chicago group’s gauge to rise to 61, and forecasts ranged from 58.3 to 63.

The employment measure rose in February to the highest level since May 1984, suggesting factories are boosting payrolls as production and orders increase. The ISM-Chicago’s production gauge increased to the highest since April, while new orders climbed to an 11-month high.

Capital Spending

“The manufacturing sector is doing very well right now,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Motor vehicle output is pretty solid and we’ve seen some strength in capital spending.”

The gain in gross domestic product in the final three months of 2011 was the biggest since the second quarter of 2010. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for no change from the previously reported increase.

Consumer spending grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate, little changed from the 2 percent initial estimate and reflecting a pickup in demand for services. Purchases added 1.5 percentage points to growth, the most in a year.

Job growth is bolstering spending as incomes strengthen. After-tax incomes adjusted for inflation increased at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the final three months of 2011, more than the previously reported 0.8 percent gain.

Wages, Salaries

In the third quarter, incomes climbed 0.7 percent compared with a 1.9 percent slump that was initially reported. Wages and salaries from July through September rose $107.2 billion, up from the $24.8 billion gain initially reported.

This helped boost the savings rate to 4.5 percent from a previously reported 3.7 percent. In the third quarter, the rate was 4.6 percent.

“The consumer may well be buying back into the economy, and if that happens, this economy will take off,” Andrew Liveris, president and chief executive officer of Midland, Michigan-based Dow Chemical Co. (DOW), said in an interview yesterday. “As you get better economic data, confidence builds.”

Inventories contributed the largest boost to growth in the final three months of 2011. Stockpiles added 1.88 percentage points to GDP. Final sales, or GDP minus inventories, rose 1.1 percent.

Imports of goods and services were less than initially reported, subtracting less from fourth-quarter GDP.

Corporate Spending

Business investment was revised higher. Corporate spending on structures fell at a 2.6 percent rate, compared with a 7.2 percent drop initially reported. Business spending on equipment and software rose at 4.8 percent annual rate last quarter. Recent data indicate it may be strengthening.

Factory output rose 0.7 percent in January after a 1.5 percent surge in December, marking the best two-month performance since July-August 2009, Fed data showed earlier this month. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of new orders to manufacturers rose last month to the highest level since April.

Employers added 243,000 workers in January, the most in nine months, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, Labor Department data show.

andar

#*)*#

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-3-1 11:47 编辑 ]

linhaiui

顶起#*19*# #*19*#

andar

国家统计局今天发布2月份PPI同比通胀率为0，使得本人上月“2月份中国PPI同比陷入通缩”的预测再次落空，尽管，2月份中国的生产资料价格同比已经陷入通缩。
正所谓：“预测有风险，看官须谨慎！”

andar

China Hard Landing Concerns Vastly Overblown, Yale’s Roach Says

By Bloomberg News - Mar 9, 2012 12:00 AM GMT+0800

Concerns that China will enter a so- called hard landing are “vastly overblown” even as economic growth becomes more unbalanced, according to Yale University Professor Stephen Roach.

China’s government has done a terrific job in controlling inflation, Roach, former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia and chief economist, said at a conference in Shanghai yesterday. The greatest risk to economic growth is the increasing reliance on fixed-asset investment and the declining contribution of private consumption, he said.


((Enlarge image
((Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg


China, the world’s second-largest economy, pared the nation’s economic growth target to 7.5 percent from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005, according to a state-of-the-nation speech that Premier Wen Jiabao delivered to about 3,000 lawmakers at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress that started on March 5 in Beijing. Officials will also aim for inflation of about 4 percent this year, unchanged from the 2011 goal, it said.

“I don’t think the banking system will collapse and the property bubble will burst,” Roach said in Shanghai. “These are all exaggerations.”

This year’s reduced growth target signals that the nation’s ruling Communist Party is determined to shift the makeup of growth toward consumption and away from exports and investment. Gross domestic product expanded 8.9 percent in the last three months of 2011, the least in 10 quarters.

Consuming Need

China needs to boost jobs and increase wages in order to stoke consumption, Roach said yesterday. The nation’s property bubble and banking issues also remain problematic for its economy, he said.

The government is scheduled to report consumer price data for February and fixed-asset investment figures tomorrow. Inflation (CNCPIYOY) may have cooled to 3.4 percent last month after rising 4.5 percent in January and 5.4 percent in 2011, and fixed-asset investment may have risen 20.5 percent this year, according to separate surveys of economists by Bloomberg News.

The yuan may continue to appreciate 3 percent to 5 percent over the next couple of years, Roach also said, adding that he doesn’t think the currency is undervalued.

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-3-9 14:35 编辑 ]

andar

Beijing teaches a masterclass in macro policy strategy
By Stephen S. Roach
2012年03月09日 07:15 AM


Contrary to widespread concerns over an imminent hard landing, China will defy the naysayers. Even after premier Wen Jiabao’s latest warning over a moderate slowing of growth, it is doing a far better job managing its economy than most give it credit for. It even offers lessons in macro policy strategy that the rest of the world should heed.

Nowhere is that more evident than on the inflation front, where Chinese authorities have waged a successful campaign against what has long been the nation’s most destabilising economic threat. After peaking at 6.5 per cent in July 2011, the headline consumer price index has decelerated to 4.5 per cent in early 2012, with more disinflation likely in the coming months.

This reflects the effects of three deliberate policy actions taken by Beijing.

First, administrative measures were put in place to deal with bottlenecks in agriculture – pork, cooking oil, fresh vegetables and fertiliser. Food inflation, which accounts for about a third of the items on the Chinese CPI, peaked at 15 per cent in mid-2011. It has slowed to about 10 per cent.

Second, bank-required reserve ratios were raised 12 times in 2011 to slow credit growth. The results are encouraging. Renminbi bank loan growth decelerated from 19.9 per cent in 2010 to 15.8 per cent in 2011. Renminbi deposit growth slowed even more sharply, from 20.2 per cent in 2010 to 13.5 per cent in 2011.

Third, the People’s Bank of China raised policy interest rates five times in 2011. This was important in light of the acceleration of non-food, or core, inflation to a 3 per cent high last northern summer, the sharpest such increase in more than a decade. Had the PBoC not acted, underlying inflationary pressures could have intensified. Instead, they have begun to moderate, with non-food CPI inflation easing off to 1.8 per cent in January 2012.

This three-pronged approach, in conjunction with a modest acceleration in renminbi currency appreciation, is an example of China’s increased prowess in macro policy stabilisation.

The central bank was willing to take its policy rate up to the peak headline inflation rate of 6.5 per cent last northern summer. By doing so, the PBoC not only ended the excessive accommodation imparted by negative real interest rates, but was able to orchestrate a “passive” monetary tightening – allowing real short-term rates to climb to 2 per cent as administrative actions took food price and headline inflation lower in the second half of 2011.

This is classic central banking at its best. China has plenty of ammunition in its monetary policy arsenal – namely, high required bank reserve ratios and positive real short-term interest rates – to deploy as circumstances dictate. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are out of traditional ammunition. They have followed the Bank of Japan and taken their short-term policy rates down to the zero bound.

As a result, the world’s big central banks have been forced to rely on untested and dubious liquidity injections as the primary means of monetary control. Where this ends and what it implies for the future – inflation, another outbreak of asset and credit bubbles, or some combination – is anyone’s guess.

In the event of a downside shock to its economy, Chinese authorities have ample scope to ease.

With economic activity slowing, they have taken modest actions in that direction with two 50 basis point cuts in the required reserve ratio to a still very high 20.5 per cent.

At the same time, with real policy rates at 2 per cent and likely to rise a little further as headline inflation eases, there is scope for traditional monetary easing if there is further weakening in the economy.

The west – out of basis points and with huge budget deficits – has no such option.

In a crisis-prone world, there is a gathering sense of foreboding over China. First it was the US, then Europe. Now there are growing fears that the Chinese economy must be next. It is not just the hand-wringing over inflation but worries of a big property bubble, a banking crisis and social unrest.

Those fears are overblown. China is cut from a very different cloth than the advanced economies of the west. Long focused on stability, it is more than willing to accept the short-term costs of a growth sacrifice to keep its development strategy on course.

A successful battle with inflation is an example of the interplay between China’s tactical imperatives and its overarching strategic objectives. That is a lesson the rest of the world could certainly stand to learn.

Stephen S. Roach, a member of the Yale faculty and author of ‘The Next Asia’, is a former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-3-9 14:45 编辑 ]

andar

向中国学习宏观调控
前摩根士丹利亚洲区主席 史蒂芬•罗奇 为英国《金融时报》撰稿
2012年03月09日 07:15 AM


中国不会像许多人担心的那样很快迎来硬着陆，那些唱衰中国的人只会自讨没趣。尽管温家宝总理最近对经济增长温和放缓发出警告，中国在管理经济方面的表现仍远远胜过多数人对它的肯定。中国甚至在宏观政策战略方面给世人上了一课，这一课是世界其他地区应该聆听的。

没有哪条战线能比通胀战线更能说明问题了。中国当局发动了一场成功的反通胀战役，遏制住了长期以来破坏中国经济稳定的最大威胁。全国居民消费价格总水平(headline CPI)同比涨幅在2011年7月触及6.5%的峰值后，已于2012年初回落至4.5%，未来数月很可能还会进一步回落。

这说明，北京方面经过慎重考虑采取的三项政策行动发挥出了效力。

首先，采取行政措施解决农业领域的瓶颈——猪肉、食用油、新鲜蔬菜和化肥。2011年年中，食品价格（占中国CPI的权重约为三分之一）同比涨幅达到15%的峰值，目前已回落至约10%。

其次，在2011年12次上调银行存款准备金率，以减缓信贷增长。此举的结果令人鼓舞。2011年，银行人民币贷款增速由2010年的19.9%降至15.8%。人民币存款增速的下降幅度更大，从2010年的20.2%降至2011年的13.5%。

第三，中国央行在2011年5次上调政策利率。鉴于非食品价格（即核心CPI）同比涨幅去年夏天曾升至3%的高点——这是十多年来最大的涨幅——中国央行的这一举措就显得尤为重要。假若它当时坐视不管，潜在通胀压力可能已经加大。实际情况是，潜在通胀压力已开始缓解，2012年1月的非食品价格同比涨幅回落至1.8%。

这种“三管齐下”的做法、加之人民币升值步伐的适度加快，显示出中国利用宏观政策稳定经济的本领已是越来越高超。

去年夏天，中国央行积极地将其政策利率（此处指金融机构一年期贷款利率——译者注）一路上调至6.5%，达到与总体通胀率峰值持平的水平。如此一来，中国央行不仅终止了负实际利率造成的过量宽松，还得以安排了一轮“被动的”货币紧缩——2011年下半年，食品价格和总体通胀率在行政措施的干预下有所回落，短期实际利率因此升至2%。

这是经典的、最佳状态的央行调控。中国的货币政策“武库”中拥有充足的“弹药”——即较高的存款准备金率和正短期实际利率——可根据不同的形势来动用相应的“弹药”。相比之下，美联储(Fed)、欧洲央行(ECB)和英国央行(BoE)已用光了传统的“弹药”。它们纷纷步日本央行(BoJ)后尘，将各自的短期政策性利率下调至近零水平。

结果，全球主要央行不得不依靠未经检验且毫无把握的注资操作，把它当作货币调控的主要手段。这种局面何时能画上句号、以及它会对未来产生怎样的影响（是导致通胀、是引爆又一轮资产和信贷泡沫，还是促成某种兼而有之的局面），谁也说不准。

倘若中国经济出现滑坡风险，中国当局拥有充足的空间放松货币政策。

随着经济活动逐渐放缓，他们已开始适度放松银根，将存款准备金率两度下调50个基点。下调后的存款准备金率仍高达20.5%。

与此同时，在实际政策利率为2%、且其随着总体通胀压力缓解很可能小幅升高的情况下，即使中国经济进一步放缓，采取传统货币宽松政策的空间也依然存在。

而既无降息空间又背负庞大预算赤字的西方国家，则没有这种选择。

在一个危机四伏的世界，人们对中国有一种不祥的预感，这种预感正变得越来越强烈。先是美国经济出了问题，然后是欧洲。人们越来越担心，中国经济将成为下一个“倒霉蛋”。他们不仅仅是头疼通胀问题，还担心巨大的楼市泡沫、银行业危机以及社会动荡。

这些担心有些过头了。中国与西方发达经济体之间存在很大的差异。中国长期致力于稳定，为了保证其发展战略顺利实施，它非常愿意承受牺牲增长带来的短期成本。

通胀阻击战的胜利是中国对其战术需求和总体战略目标作出协调的一个范例。世界其他国家绝不应错过这堂课。

本文作者曾任摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚洲区主席，如今在耶鲁大学教书，著有《未来的亚洲》(The Next Asia)一书

译者/何黎

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-3-9 14:44 编辑 ]

andar

你，
可以看空日本经济，
可以看空欧洲经济，
也可以看空美国经济，
但若想看空中国经济，
那可要当心了。
#*)*#

andar

By the way,  China's core CPI inflation is only 1.2 per cent in Feburary 2012.

andar

国家统计局今天发布3月份PPI同比通胀率为-0.3%，比本人“中国PPI将陷入轻度同比通缩”的预测迟到了两个月。
正所谓：“预测有风险，看官须谨慎！”

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-4-9 14:46 编辑 ]

泉山

#bb# #bb#

andar

再说几句。

在生产领域再次进入通缩的情况下，为减缓通缩向批发领域传导，更为了阻断通缩向最终消费领域的传导，负责任的中央银行应该立即率先下调存款准备金率1个百分点，同时，中央银行也有责任向世人昭告其明确而又坚定的反通缩立场：一旦生产领域的通缩继续蔓延，中央银行将保留采取一切必要的数量与价格措施予以应对的权利。

当然了，根据制度安排，应对“反通缩”负责任的，远非中央银行一家。

听其言，观其行。欲知换届前Z@@F能否“尽职尽责”“站好最后一班岗”？还是再次深陷可以理解的以备“人走茶凉”的大堆事务之中难以它顾，就请列位看官主人们瞪大眼睛耐心观瞧吧......

在此，我要特别表扬一下立JUN和树清同志，太实在太实干了，一个蒙族，一个来自内蒙，都是巴特尔，难得，难得。

王侯将相宁有种乎？！

[ 本帖最后由 andar 于 2012-4-11 01:25 编辑 ]

andar

今年全球流行开裆裤

andar

爱美的女孩儿为了在阳光明媚的季节里穿出靓丽的感觉，辛苦的减肥，努力的健身。现在，这个季节来到了，就把你的减肥成果大方的亮出来吧！天生就有一种性感野性的味道，将你的窈窕姿态完美的烘托出来，开裆裤是最好的选择。

高官、权贵、精英、名牌院校长以及学者专家熟视无睹，不闻不问，装聋作哑，视而不见，避而不谈 。禁蝇们唱红脸？唱白脸？扮鬼脸？咋就成为“三花脸”？对于开裆裤潮流，精蝇政府将继续不作为。

还有那些人追求的，自然、野味、山野、高雅、韵味、和亵、和庸..............性感迷人的太阳裙

三八妇女节：女人至露胸、露臀，今夏竞将流行穿开裆裤,因此可见,龙年今夏届时随处可见因释放过大压力的男、女露阴癖、暴露狂必将成为都市与城乡的又一道新风景线......

andar

百年变暖的直观后果就是：女人内裤由长变短直至无底裤。

狂野：少妇穿裙无底裤，休闲女只穿开档裤，时尚小姐不穿裤。

andar

也是预测，很专业的

andar

行为与结果

宇宙与分子

哈哈，沙发！

andar

咋整的，睡这么晚/起这么早？

andar

准确地讲，“在中国，根据相关制度安排，“反通缩”或“反通胀”的第一责任部门，并非中央银行。”