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《股票作手回忆录》探讨
下面是我博客上提到最小阻力位的原文
我一直同时买卖股票和商品期货。我还是个少年的时候，就开始在对赌行做期货交易了。这么多年以来，我一直在研究期货市场，但可能没有研究股市那么专心，事实上，比较而言，我更倾向于做期货，这与期货更具正统性无关。虽然，期货的确要正统一些。但期货比股票更具冒险性。用虚构的理由来对抗期货市场的价格趋势，成功只会是短暂的。因为最终获胜的还会是事实。因而，就像做平常的生意一样，交易商总会在研究、观察中得到回报。他可以观察并权衡形势，他同别人知道的一样多，他用不着抵御内幕集团。在棉花期货市场或是小麦、玉米市场，没有分配红利这回事，长期以来，期货价格就不是被垄断着的，而是由供求法则决定的。做期货的人只需要了解供求情况、现况与前景。他用不着像做股票那样要对许多事进行猜测。因而期货总是更吸引我。
当然，所有的投机市场都有相同之处。行情走势的分析技巧是相同的。对任何乐于思考的人来讲，其实是相当明确的。如果他多问自己几个问题，考虑一下条件，答案自己就出来了。但人们总是懒得问问题，更别说找答案了。在所有游戏中，唯一真正需要在行动前做的就是做好准备，有些人在用他一半的财产冒险时，思考的时间还不如买一辆平价汽车的考虑的久。
分析行情，但也并不像看起来那么难。当然还是需要经验，比在头脑中有一定的基本原则来得更重要。分析行情并不在于得知运气好坏。行情走势可不会告诉你下星期四下午一点三十五分你肯定会值多少。分析行情的目的在于探知，首先是如何，其次是在什么时候交易，也就是说，应该买入还是抛出，这对股票、棉花、小麦、玉米、燕麦同样奏效。
你观察着市场，当然是通过行情记录机记录的价格走势，只有一个目的：确定方向，也就是价格趋势。我们知道，价格会根据遇到的阻力上升或下跌。为了简洁的解释一下，我们可以说价格，像其它所有的东西一样，沿最小阻力线运动。它们总会怎么容易怎么来，因而如果上升的阻力比下跌的阻力小，价格就上涨，反之亦然。
如果股市平稳地开市，后来无论发展成为牛市还是熊市都不应该感到困惑。对一个头脑敏捷、眼光犀利的人来说，趋势是很明显的。总想用理论套事实的交易商是非常不明智的。知道市场到底是牛市还是熊市，他就知道到底应该买入还是抛出。一个人如果在市场起行之初，你就应判断出方向来。
举个例子来说，假设市场像平常那样上下起伏。在十点的范围内波动：压力点为130，支撑点为120。有可能当它跌到支撑位附近时显得非常虚弱。而在上升阶段，上涨了八点十点后，它可能看起来非常强势。一个人不该由于某种迹像就被吸引去交易，他应该等行情记录告诉他时机是否成熟。事实上，人们看股票便宜就买，看股票贵就抛，已损失了成百上千万美元。投机者不是投资者，他的目的并非追求稳定的回报，而是从价格的起落中获利。因而需要决定的是在交易时最小阻力的位置，他需要等待市场自己确定自身的支撑和阴力位。因为这是他的交易指南。
阅读行情走势起让你看出在130时抛出比买入强，市场接着开始调整。于是那些对行情分析一知半解的人认为价格会一直涨至150，于是他们就买入了。但当价格回调时他们或者坚持，或认赔又反手做空。到120时，在价格有较强的支撑，买入又胜过抛出，价格上扬，空头又认赔了。人们经常被上下扫荡，他们总是不吸取教训，让人尺惊讶。
最终总会有什么事发生使得上涨或下跌的力量强大起来，而阻力的最高点也上升或上降，也就是说，头一次在130的位置买入比卖出强，或在120卖出比买入强。价格会冲破波动区间继续前进。总有许多市场人在120时做空头，因为市场看起来很弱，在130时做多头，因为市场看起来很强，当市场反期道而行时，他们将被迫认赔，正是这些人使支撑和阻力位更明确了。而那些聪明又耐心的交易商等待着趋势成立，他们会得益于对基本条件的分析，也会得益于那些斩仓客对市场的推动作用。斩仓客的买卖指令常推动市价沿最小阻力点波动。
在这儿我所说的虽然并非精确的定理或投机的公理，但我的经验正是那些突发事件，也就是那些出乎意料判定的事件，无论我的头寸是否基于对最小阻力线的判定，突发事件总会对我有所帮助。还记得我给你讲过的在萨拉托加发生的太平洋联盟交易吗？我做多头是因为我发现最小阻力线正在上升。我应该坚持做多头，而不该听经纪人说什么内幕人士都在抛出。董事们心里所想的就是我可能不知道的事，但我能够而且的确知道行情走势说，“正在上涨！”然后果然就是出乎意料的提高红利，股票也涨了三十点。价格如果到了164，的确看起来挺高，但就像我以前说的那样，永远不要因价格太高而不买，永远不要因价格太低而不愿抛出，价位高低从本质上来说，与确立最小阻力线毫无关系。
在实际操作中，你会发现在收盘后发布的重大消息往往与最小限力线相一致。在消息公布之前，趋势就已经确定下来了。在牛市中，人们就会忽略利淡消息，而利好的消息总是被夸大，反之亦然。战争爆发以前，股市形势很不好，德国宣布了潜水艇政治。我做了十五万股空头。倒不是因为我听说了什么消息，而是我一直沿最小阻力线交易。当然我利用了境况，在那天就将空头平仓了。
听起来似乎挺容易的，你只需观察行情走势，确立限力位，一旦确定了最小阻力线就立刻顺着它做交易。但在实际操作中，一个人却必须警慎许多事情，而且大部分都是与他相对立的，也就是说，与人性的弱点对抗。在牛市中人们会忽略利淡的因素，这就是人性，但人们还对之表示惊讶。由于出现一两个季节的恶劣天气，有人就说小麦期货会暴涨会惊讶于原来损失是如此之小。他们会发现他们只是帮了空头。
做期货交易的人一定不要持一成不变的观点。他必须思维开放且灵活。无论你对于谷物的供需状况有什么样的观点，都不要轻视行情记录传达的信息。我记得有一次因为我太冲动，结果失去了一个很大的机会。我对于形势非常肯定，我认为没有必要等最小阻力线成立，我甚至决定我可以帮它一把，因为看起来只需要一点帮助就行了。
英文原文：
I always have traded in commodities as well as in stocks. I began as a youngster in the bucket shops. I
studied those markets for years, though perhaps not so assiduously as the stock market. As a matter of
fact, I would rather play commodities than stocks. There is no question about their greater legitimacy, as
it were. It partakes more of the nature of a commercial venture than trading in stocks does. A man can
approach it as he might any mercantile problem. It may be possible to use fictitious arguments for or
against a certain trend in a commodity market; but success will be only temporary, for in the end the fac
are bound to prevail, so that a trader gets dividends on study and observation, as he does in a regular
business. He can watch and weigh conditions and he knows as much about it as anyone else. He need no
guard against inside cliques. Dividends are not unexpectedly passed or increased overnight in the cotton
market or in wheat or corn. In the long run commodity prices are governed but by one law—the
economic law of demand and supply. The business of the trader in commodities is simply to get facts
about the demand and the supply, present and prospective. He does not indulge in guesses about a dozen
things as he does in stocks. It always appealed to me—trading in commodities.
Of course the same things happen in all speculative markets. The message of the tape is the same. That
will be perfectly plain to anyone who will take the trouble to think. He will find if he asks himself
questions and considers conditions, that the answers will supply themselves directly. But people never
take the trouble to ask questions, leave alone seeking answers. The average American is from Missouri
everywhere and at all times except when he goes to the brokers' offices and looks at the tape, whether it
stocks or commodities. The one game of all games that really requires study before making a play is the
one he goes into without his usual highly intelligent preliminary and precautionary doubts. He will risk
half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-
priced automobile.
This matter of tape reading is not so complicated as it appears. Of course you need experience. But it is
even more important to keep certain fundamentals in mind. To read the tape is not to have your fortune
told. The tape does not tell you how much you will surely be worth next Thursday at 1:35 p.m. The object
of reading the tape is to ascertain, first, how and, next, when to trade—that is, whether it is wiser to buy
than to sell. It works exactly the same for stocks as for cotton or wheat or corn or oats.
You watch the market—that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape—with one object: to
determine the direction—that is, the price tendency. Prices, we know, will move either up or down
according to the resistance they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices, like
everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore
they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline; and vice versa.
Nobody should be puzzled as to whether a market is a bull or a bear market after it fairly starts. The tre
is evident to a man who has an open mind and reasonably clear sight, for it is never wise for a speculato
to fit his facts to his theories. Such a man will, or ought to, know whether it is a bull or a bear market, a
if he knows that he knows whether to buy or to sell. It is therefore at the very inception of the movemen
that a man needs to know whether to buy or to sell.
Let us say, for example, that the market, as it usually does in those between-swings times, fluctuates
within a range of ten points; up to 130 and down to 120. It may look very weak at the bottom; or, on th
way up, after a rise of eight or ten points, it may look as strong as anything. A man ought not to be led
into trading by tokens. He should wait until the tape tells him that the time is ripe. As a matter of fact,
millions upon millions of dollars have been lost by men who bought stocks because they looked cheap
sold them because they looked dear. The speculator is not an investor. His object is not to secure a stea
return on his money at a good rate of interest, but to profit by either a rise or a fall in the price of
whatever he may be speculating in. Therefore the thing to determine is the speculative line of least
resistance at the moment of trading; and what he should wait for is the moment when that line defines
itself, because that is his signal to get busy.
Reading the tape merely enables him to see that at 130 the selling had been stronger than the buying an
a reaction in the price logically followed. Up to the point where the selling prevailed over the buying,
superficial students of the tape may conclude that the price is not going to stop short of 150, and they
buy. But after the reaction begins they hold on, or sell out at a small loss, or they go short and talk
bearish. But at 120 there is stronger resistance to the decline. The buying prevails over the selling, there
a rally and the shorts cover. The public is so often whipsawed that one marvels at their persistence in not
learning their lesson.
Eventually something happens that increases the power of either the upward or the downward force and
the point of greatest resistance moves up or down—that is, the buying at 130 will for the first time be
stronger than the selling, or the selling at 120 be stronger than the buying. The price will break through
the old barrier or movement-limit and go on. As a rule, there is always a crowd of traders who are short
120 because it looked so weak, or long at 130 because it looked so strong, and, when the market goes
against them they are forced, after a while, either to change their minds and turn or to close out, In either
event they help to define even more clearly the price line of least resistance. Thus the intelligent trader
who has patiently waited to determine this line will enlist the aid of fundamental trade conditions and als
of the force of the trading of that part of the community that happened to guess wrong and must now
rectify mistakes. Such corrections tend to push prices along the line of least resistance.
And right here I will say that, though I do not give it as a mathematical certainty or as an axiom of
speculation, my experience has been that accidents—that is, the unexpected or unforeseen—have always
helped me in my market position whenever the latter has been based upon my determination of the line o
least resistance. Do you remember that Union Pacific episode at Saratoga that I told you about? Well, I
was long because I found out that the line of least resistance was upward. I should have stayed long
instead of letting my broker tell me that insiders were selling stocks. It didn't make any difference what
was going on in the directors' minds. That was something I couldn't possibly know. But I could and did
know that the tape said: "Going up!" And then came the unexpected raising of the dividend rate and the
thirty-point rise in the stock. At 164 prices looked mighty high, but as I told you before, stocks are never
too high to buy or too low to sell. The price, per se, has nothing to do with establishing my line of least
resistance.
You will find in actual practice that if you trade as I have indicated any important piece of news given out
between the closing of one market and the opening of another is usually in harmony with the line of least
resistance. The trend has been established before the news is published, and in bull markets bear items are
ignored and bull news exaggerated, and vice versa. Before the war broke out the market was in a very
weak condition. There came the proclamation of Germany's submarine policy. I was short one hundred
and fifty thousand shares of stock, not because I knew the news was coming, but because I was going
along the line of least resistance. What happened came out of a clear sky, as far as my play was
concerned. Of course I took advantage of the situation and I covered my shorts that day.
It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and
be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it. But in actual
practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself—that is, against human
nature. That is the reason why I say that the man who is right always has two forces working in his
favor—basic conditions and the men who are wrong. In a bull market bear factors are ignored. That is
human nature, and yet human beings profess astonishment at it. People will tell you that the wheat crop
has gone to pot because there has been bad weather in one or two sections and some farmers have been
ruined. When the entire crop is gathered and all the farmers in all the wheat-growing sections begin to
take their wheat to the elevators the bulls are surprised at the smallness of the damage. They discover that
they merely have helped the bears.
When a man makes his play in a commodity market he must not permit himself set opinions. He must
have an open mind and flexibility. It is not wise to disregard the message of the tape, no matter what your
opinion of crop conditions or of the probable demand may be. I recall how I missed a big play just by
trying to anticipate the starting signal. I felt so sure of conditions that I thought it was not necessary to
wait for the line of least resistance to define itself. I even thought I might help it arrive, because it looked
as if it merely needed a little assistance.
[ 本帖最后由 leson6666 于 2007-3-22 00:37 编辑 ]
引用:原帖由 Tomato 于 2007-3-21 11:21 发表
《股票作手回忆录》中提到的最小阻力线具体是什么样的概念？大家读书有什么心得不妨在这里探讨一下～～
我对最小阻力线的理解是一根均线的支持.
当然,在LIVERMORE的那个时代还没有发明"均线"这个技术工具,
但从他的描述中,我得出的感觉是一根MA10--MA20之间的均线,
因为价格一旦突破区间震荡,开始走趋势时,
多数是依据MA10--MA20的均线为支撑的. |
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