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发表于 2007-12-27 22:32
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EMAs are the core of the 5/13/62 Strategy
EMAs are the core of the 5/13/62 Strategy
Exponential Moving Averages (described in more detail below) are at the core of tis strategy. From the beginning you should understand that I didn’t invent the 5/13/62 strategy. At least I don’t think I did.
There are some extras that I add in, but essentially, all of this information is available elsewhere. That said, I believe that most of the people that write about forex have a way of putting you and I to sleep.
So maybe this is the first time you’ve heard about it, but in any event, I’ll try to keep it interesting.
If the chart above doesn’t make any sense to you, even with the legend, then here’s a brief explanation:
1. When the 5 crosses below the 13, and both of them cross below the 62, it’s possibly a good sell signal.
2. Inversely, we can assume that the opposite is true: when the 5 crosses above the 13, and both cross above the 62, it’s a buy signal.
What is EMA ?
Moving averages are the average value of the price of a currency pair, over a certain period of time. A 5-day moving average for the EUR/USD would be the average price of the EUR/USD over a 5 day period.
You can base the average on the closing, opening, or other price. Each time the MA is calculated, the earliest period is dropped and the latest period is added. In this way, the average price fluctuates according to the fixed time period.
The exponential moving average (EMA) puts the emphasis on the most recent prices, and less emphasis on the older prices. Sometimes you won’t see much difference between the EMA and the Simple Moving Average, which does not weigh any price
more than another.
Do I just look for the
crosses?
I have backtested (and so have many, many others) simply buying when the signals cross above and selling when the signals cross below.
There are even companies that build trading robots that will
automatically buy and sell when these signals are given. But, as much as I’d like to say differently, it’s not that easy.
There are all types of false signals (crosses that happen but that don’t turn profitable).
Here are some other principles of this strategy, divided in three sections: entering the trade, staying in the trade, exiting the trade. The principles of each section will help you maximize your gains and minimize your losses.
But first, a quick look at the tools you’ll need.
Charting
You can use the free charting software that comes with your
account – but I’ve not been impressed with anyone’s offerings. Some dealers don’t allow you to show more than 2 EMAs on a single screen.
Some do, but the process of charting them is difficult or unreliable.
The 30 minute chart
I have used the 15 minute, 30 minute, 1hr, 4hr, daily … even the weekly chart. You can really use anything longer than 15 minutes. I recommend starting with the 15 minute or the 30 minute, so you will see more opportunities in a shorter period of time.
The 5 and the 13 alone
Chart the 5, the 13, and the 62 period Exponential Moving Averages.
Part I: Making the Trade
Below you’ll find the principles behind making good trades. And avoiding the bad ones. These are guidelines. Good trades based on these guidelines are the result of applying them enough times that you begin to get a feel for the market.
I want to emphasize that you can change these rules. You can manipulate them. You will be most successful when you make this “your own,” by adjusting so that you feel most comfortable.
Holidays and other bad days
Try not to trade on holidays, especially U.S. holidays. It’s best to stay out of the market on those days and catch up on time with your family, see a movie, adjust the metal rod that was placed in your back, insert a metal rod in your back, or fire up the barbie-q and roast some weenies. Or you can back test your strategies. It’s also best to never,
ever, ever, enter a trade past 14:00 GMT on a Friday.
On holidays and late on Fridays, the market is unpredictable and might not move enough to give you any profit. Or it might move 50 points in one direction just for the heck of it, and then move back. Of course it might move a zillion pips, but that’s the exception rather than the rule. Then you’re stuck in what might become a losing position, but meanwhile, you’re losing money to premiums/interest paid to your
broker. This is a good time to shove a metal rod into your spine.
Please take my advice and just stay out of the market, with this system, at these times. You may lose some opportunities, but you will lose (also) the chance of getting trapped in a motionless or unpredictable market.
Other systems, long term systems in particular, can work okay late on Fridays and on holidays. But that is the subject of another ebook. One, incidentally, that I have not written yet.
Trading on the 5 and the 13
You should be prepared to buy anytime the 5 crosses above the 13. You should also be prepared to sell anytime the 5 crosses below the 13.
You should be prepared to do this even if they do not simultaneously cross the 62.
This does not mean that you take the trade immediately. It means that you are aware that a trade might be coming.
Is the 13 crossing the 62?
The next part of the system is to watch for the 13 to cross the 62.Whether above or below (long or short positions), you’re in good territory. At these times, it might be a very, very good opportunity.
I want you to also focus on the fact that the pair, after this crossover occurs at the pink circle, return to hit the 62 EMA again – and this is an excellent time to sell the pair all over again. This means that if you miss the original trade, it’s totally acceptable to enter the trade when the pair
rises up and hits the 62.
This works for long and short trades – the 62 EMA will act as a dynamic level of support and resistance.
Stops and limits
Last of all, do the following:
1. Set a stop-loss at 20 pips beyond the 62 EMA.
2. Trail the trade by 20 pips (using a trailing stop loss), or:
3. Set a profit target at a recent high or low (something that creates a double top or double bottom).
During the Trade
Lots can happen during the trade. Here are some things to consider and remember during the trade.
Set it and forget it?
believe that anyone that tells you to “Set it and forget it” is appealing to your desire for quick, easy profits without any work.
Right now, I would like to appeal to your desire for quick and easy profits without any work. I will do this by telling you that if
you choose a recent high/low as your profit target, or a trailing stop, then you can walk away.
Initial volatility
At the beginning of the trade, you might see some initial volatility.
This means that after the candle closes, you might see the next candle go opposite from where you want it to be. Don’t get overly concerned about this. You need at least 20 pips of free room to let the trade gather momentum.
And remember what I said (not about the rock band): the pair might rise up or fall down and hit the 62 EMA. This is just another opportunity to get in the trade if you did not already (or add to your position).
Part III: Exiting the Trade
We already covered this, because you set the limit at a recent high or low, or you set a 20 pip trailing stop.
Let the system exit the trade for you, based on your stops and limits.
Most forex dealers will guarantee stops and limits, so you’ve got little to worry about.
That’s it!
翻译：EMAs均线组合是5/13/62 策略的核心
chinazen翻译
指数移动平均线是这个策略的核心。首先，你应该知道，并非是我发明了5/13/62 策略，至少我不认为是我发明的。有些内容是我添加的，但基本上，所有这些信息都可以在任何地方找到。尽管如此，我相信，大多数人写出的有关外汇交易的文章，都或多或少会使人昏昏欲睡。所以，或许这是你第一次听说这个策略，但是无论如何，我将尽可能保持它的趣味性。如果即使结合了图例，你也没能看懂以上的图表，那么请看以下的解释：
1. 如果5日均线从上向下交叉跌破13日均线，并且它们又都从上向下交叉跌破62日均线时，这有可能是一个很好的卖出信号。
2. 与此相反，我们可以认为：当5日均线从下向上交叉突破13日均线，并且它们又都从下向上交叉突破62日均线时，这可能是一个很好的买入信号。什么是EMA?（略）
是否仅仅找寻这种均线的交叉就足够了？我进行过加载测试（还有很多很多其他人也进行过加载测试），只是简单地在信号向上交叉突破时买入，向下交叉跌破时卖出。有些公司甚至制造了交易机器，在出现这些信号时自动进行买卖。但我几乎要唱反调，这并非如此简单。存在着各种各样虚假的信号（虽然出现了交叉，但并没有出现赢利机会）。这个策略还有一些其他的原则，这些原则分为三个环节：进场、持仓和出场。每一环节的原则，将帮助你将收益最大化，损失最小化。
我使用的是15分钟图、30分钟图、1小时图、4小时图、天图甚至周图。你实际上可以使用任何长于15分钟的图表。我建议开始时，使用15或30分钟图，这样你可以在一个更短的时间周期里发现更多的机会。
一. 进场
下述原则，是交易获利所遵循的原则，也是避免交易失败的原则。这些原则是一些大政方针。依据这些方针进行交易，要想使之成功，必须对这些方针加以充分的反复运用，直至你开始对市场有了感觉。
需要强调的是，你可以改变这些规则，可以主动操控它们。只有当你通过亲自调整这些原则，使它们成为 “你自己”的规则，得心应手地运用时，你才能取得最大的成功。
节假日和其他的坏日子不要尝试在节假日，尤其是美国的节假日交易。在节假日里，最好远离汇市，与家人共享时光。或者，你可以加载测试你的策略。此外，在格林尼治标准时间周五下午14:00以后，决不要再入场。在节假日或周五的下午，市场是不可预测的，波动的幅度不足以产生任何赢利空间。或者，它会毫无缘故地单边移动50点，然后又会回到原来的位置。当然它也可能会移动很多点，但这仅仅是例外，并不是规律。而后，你会被卡在一个有可能带来亏损的点位，而同时，你还要向经纪人支付手续费/利息，从而加大损失。请接受我的忠告，如果采用这个交易系统，你应该在这些日子里，呆在场外。你可能因此而失去一些机会，但同时，你更将因此而避免陷于市场死水一潭或吉凶未卜的窘境。其他的交易系统，特别是长线的系统，能够在星期五和节假日照常操作。但这是其他交易教科书的主题了，但这种书，恰巧我还没来得及写呢。
均线组合1：
根据5日和13日均线的交易只要5日均线从下向上交叉突破13日均线时，应随时做好买进准备，而当5日均线从上向下交叉突破13日均线时，则应随时做好卖出准备。即使 5日均线和13日均线并非同时突破62日均线，你都应该准备买进。这并不意味着你要马上入场交易，而是你必须意识到，交易的时机可能就要来临。
均线组合2：
13日均线交叉突破62日均线了吗？这个交易系统的下一步，是观察13日均线交叉突破62日均线。无论是向上突破还是向下突破（长线或短线位置），你都处在一个很好的交易区域。这一刻，也许就是一个非常、非常好的机会。我希望你也同时关注以下这一事实：在交叉突破发生在红色区域之内以后，这一对均线再次返回到62日均线，而这是一个再次卖出的绝好时机。这意味着如果你错过了最初的交易机会，当这对组合上涨并摸到62日均线时，这个入场交易点也是完全可以接受的。这适合于长线和短线交易，62日均线是动态的支撑位和阻力位。
二. 止损和止赢
在最后，应按以下操作：
1. 在距离62日均线之外20点设置止损位。
2. 每20点追踪交易（使用追踪止损），或者；
3. 在近期的高点或低点（也就是发生双顶或双底的点位）设置一个利润目标。
交易期间
交易期间，有许多事情都可能发生，这里是一些在交易期间需要考虑和记住的事情。
设置后就忘掉它吗？请相信：任何人告诉你“设置后就忘掉它”，都是为了迎合你希望快速、轻松地不劳而获的欲望。那么现在，我就来迎合你希望快速、轻松地不劳而获的欲望，我说：如果你选定了近期高点或低点作为你的利润目标，或者设置了跟踪止损，那么你可以走开了。最初的波动性在交易开始的时候，你可以看到一些最初的波动。这意味着在一个蜡烛线结束后，你也许会看到下一个蜡烛线走向与你期望相反的方向。不要过于关注这些波动，你需要至少20点的自由空间给交易聚集动能。记住：5/13这对均线组合可以上涨或下跌并碰到62日均线。如果你还没有入场（或增加头寸）的话，这正是另一个入场时机。
二. 出场
我们已经说到这个了，因为你在近期的高点/低点设置了止赢目标，或者你设置了一个20点的追踪止损。让系统来为你出场吧，当然是基于你所设置的止损和止赢。大部分外汇交易商都确保可以止损和止赢，因此你大可不必担心什么。 |
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