一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Wednesday, January 04, 2006A New Trading Year Begins
Happy New Year to one and all. My new year's resolution for this blog is to be not quite so dogmatic with my bearish views. After all, my role here is to be as objective as possible - - - not proselytize! So having said that, let's take a look at what the markets are doing.

The story is pretty much the same across all the major markets: for about six weeks, from October 11th through November 29th, the markets were strong. For the whole of December, the markets generally had a stair-step pattern downward. Nothing dramatic, but definitely a series of lower highs and lower lows.

With the first two trading days of the year behind us, the market has shown strength, ostensibly due to some clarity from the Fed that they won't keep cranking interest rates up forever. And January, being the strongest trading month of the year historically, has a lot of favorable bias to it.

Let's look at the three biggest ETFs - DIA, QQQQ, and SPY (respectively, the Dow 30, NASDAQ 100, and the S&P 500 ETFs). I've pointed out the "high water mark" for each of these. Simply stated, the prices must exceed these prior levels for the market to show continued strength. Otherwise, we're just looking at a start-of-the-year anomoly and little else. Here, then, is the DIA.....


The QQQQ.......


And, finally, the SPY (remember, you can click on any image to see a bigger version)....


I'd also like to point out an example of a stock in a nicely-shaped inverted head & shoulders pattern, which is typically seen as bullish. The symbol is ASYT. Below I've drawn the two shoulders and the head, and I've shown the neckline above which the price has already broken. As you can see, the price fell back to touch the neckline and is starting to move upward again. I've marked the target price for this stock - about $7.50 according to traditional measurement techniques.




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Tuesday, December 27, 2005Rudolph's Light Goes Dim


Shorting these momentum stocks can be risky business, but let me point to a recent example that was a pretty clean trade - Forward Industries (symbol FORD). Here's what the stock looked like over the past year or so. Notice this important fact - - although the stock was pushing higher, the momentum was clearly slowing.

I've circled the ascending highs to try to make this point more clear. I've also drawn a sharply ascending trendline to illustrate how its role as support plainly changed to resistance, thus indicating that at least the "straight up" direction of the stock was slowing down.


When I saw this stock a couple of months back, I was intrigued. What kind of business is this? I did a bit of research and found they were in the business of - - hold on to your hat - - cell phone covers. You know, like cases. I was floored. I don't pretend to know anything about that business, and I couldn't argue with the success of the company, so they must have been doing great. But cell phone covers? Was that really a rock solid high-growth business with high barriers to entry?

I kept an eye on the stock, and when it made another thrust upward, I shorted it. I've put a circle on the chart below to indicate where I went short the stock.


A few days back, FORD announced revised expectations, and the price just swooned. You can even make out a pretty decent head and shoulders pattern. My point here is that waning momentum on a former high flier can make for a great short.

Some other high fliers (which may or may not turn out to be great shorts......only time will tell) including GOOG, HANS, WFMI, and, as I mentioned before, NTRI.

NTRI, shown below, has had a huge run up. If the broad market continues to weaken as it has been, and this stock doesn't regain its momentum, a trade like this could be a terribly profitable short, particularly if you're willing to take on the even greater risk of owning a put option position instead of a straight equity short.


I'll be sure to put up a post shortly after Friday's close to find out if the Dow wound up in the plus or minus column this year. It's going to be a photo finish!


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Monday, December 19, 2005The Bulls Will Fail
With each passing day I like this market more and more.

The sneering, smirking bulls, with their obsession over "Dow 11,000", keep failing to do it. They just can't. No matter what favorable news blows their way, and no matter how many millions of people are falling all over themselves to push the market higher, it's not working. The market's not going up.

What's cool is that every morning they try again, and they fail again. As I've said in the past, this is exactly what we want to see. The market opens, they stamp their little hooves and push the market 30, 50, 70 points higher.....and it stalls. And starts slipping. And spends the rest of the day giving those gains back and, more often than not, closing lower for the day.

There are now just eight trading days left in the year. At this point, for the entire year, the Dow has gain 53 points. I am hopeful that minuscule gain will be wiped out and replaced with a loss before the year is over so we can throw this decennial pattern in the garbage where it belongs.


Now let's take a look at the current insanity, Google. About a week ago or so, in an attempt to outdo other analysts, one stock analyst made a projected price target of $500 for Google. What's this thing with big, round numbers? Does this guy really get paid this much to just dream up a big round number? Is there actual analysis behind it? What about $600? Or $700? Why not a good old 1990s $1,000 price target?

Well, anyway, Google shot out of the gates today because they look close to catching some of that AOL magic (take a good look at the dog TWX stock to see how much life is left there). It was up $17 or so, blasting to another lifetime high. And it stalled. And started sinking. It finally closed down nearly $6 for the day. A daily range of something like $25. I actually had bought puts on it near the top but chickened out. Just look at this insane intraday chart (below is about the past 5 days).


I am hoping 2006 will put us in a position where the bears really take charge. We're sort of gently tapping the bulls away at this point. I'm wanting to rip a few thousand points out of the Dow and see real blood in the streets. 2006 could be the year for that kind of action. Below is a list of all my current puts and shorts. All of them are already deeply profitable, and I'm counting on many gains to come. Let the games begin!




at 12/19/2005 9 insightful comments
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Thursday, December 15, 2005Bulls Still Struggling

Here's a chart showing the VIX (black line, right scale) versus the S&P 500 (blue line, left scale) over the past 3 1/2 years. As always, click on the image to make it larger so you can see it better. Look at the picture and judge for yourself what this chart might be telling us. I've put some green highlights to ilustrate how these two charts are often "mirror images".




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Tuesday, December 13, 2005Breakout........or Failure?
Today, for the 13th time in a row, the Fed increased interest rates. Perversely, the market rallied on the news (supposedly because there was a suggestion that perhaps the rate hikes would stop). It wasn't that many years ago there was a saying about "three steps and a stumble" (in other words, three rate hikes in a row preceded a bear market). I guess even 13 hikes haven't done the trick yet.

The market has been going nowhere for a long, long time. The flip side of this, however, is that when the market does finally decide to go somewhere, the move will be substantial. Even I, Mr. Bear, concede that if the Dow breaks 11,000 in a meaningful way, the market is going to rally strongly. There is simply too much pent up energy to hold it back. Conversely, if the market keeps failing to penetrate 11,000, as it has done repeatedly already, the market will finally succumb and wilt downward.

Take a look at the past couple of years of the Dow 30; notice where I have marked the 11,000 threshold:


There have been two earnest attempts to pierce 11,000. If it can't "punch through", the bear market I've been yacking about all year will finally start to take hold. Until then, everyone - including me - is in wait-and-see mode.

The market will either have the strength to push itself past the resistance that's been holding it back for many months, or it will finally throw in the towel as people rush for the exit doors and take profits as quickly as they can.


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Thursday, December 08, 2005Cute with a Capital Q

I'll stifle all the bearish hoo-ha for a day and mention one honey of a stock pattern - Qwest Communications (symbol Q). This is a fantastic inverted head & shoulders pattern with a good volume and price spike today.

I've mentioned this stock in the past, but I wanted to put out a reminder since it's clearly broken above its neckline at this point.


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Wednesday, December 07, 2005





Sunday, December 04, 2005
The Windup......and the Pitch!
As a new trading week approaches, most of the talk is about crossing Dow 11,000 (as if this is unprecedented; we were last there in June 2001). Clearly, given the market's strength since October 11th, it would be a psychological boost to the bulls to cross this threshold.

It could well happen. In fact, given the market chatter, it seems almost a foregone conclusion. But what if it does? What next?

There have actually been a number of breakouts over the past few years, and it pays to take a look at their respective "windups" (the amount of time they were forming before they broke out) and "pitches" (just how much oomph was in the breakout).

I offer below the Russell 2000 for the past three and a half years. I've taken the liberty of illustrating each major breakout, showing the length of time (in purple) and the subsequent rise upward (in green). Click on the image for a bigger version.


You've probably noticed a pattern already. With each successive breakout, the length of time gets shorter, and the subsequent strength (and its longevity) gets weaker.




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Tuesday, November 29, 2005When Good News Can't Help Anymore
There were two very important economic reports that came due this morning.



In my view, the market (as measured by the $SPX) peaked on November 23rd at 1,270.64. Look at the graph below, and notice how beautifully all the Fibonacci retracements line up:


I'd also like to point out the amazing shooting star pattern on the Dow. It's absolutely textbook!


There's about a month left in the year, and the Dow is currently up 1.5%. Hopefully the Dow will close out the year at less than 10,783, which will "break" this decennial pattern and be another feather in the cap for the bears.


at 11/29/2005 1 insightful comments
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Monday, November 28, 2005New Hope for the Bears?
The stock market has been going virtually straight up since October 13th, much to the chagrin of dyed-in-the-wool bears (waving hands wildly, pointing at self).

Nothing would be better for the bears than for everything seem to be in favor of the bulls and then have the carpet yanked out from under their grimy little hooves. As a reminder, what's in favor of the bulls right now is (1) the Decennial Pattern (2) strong seasonal bias (the so-called January effect, which tends to take place in December!) (3) recent broad-based strength, particularly in the NASDAQ.

One day does not a trend make (or break), but today was heartening nonetheless. Witness first that the market opened higher and spent most of the day sinking. The Dow, approaching 11,000, may be turning tail again. A double top would be potent elixir for the bears. (Reminder: click on the image to see a bigger version of this graph, then click Back to return to this scintillating post):



I also want to point out that, across the board, both indices and individual stocks alike had examples of the bearish engulfing pattern (one of the easiest-to-spot and powerful candlestick patterns). Check out the SPY, and notice how it stands out from the price action over the prior six weeks:



Google, which has had a swashbuckling year, seems to do little but go up. Although I am loathe to call a top on this powerhouse of a stock (which, by the way, happens to represent a very fine company!), here is another fine example of a huge bearish engulfing pattern.



It's important to get a sense as to the scope of the market. I am, for example, long puts on Boeing (symbol BA). This is based on a recent trendline break. Boeing has recovered from this break, but the damage may have been done already. Although the above graphs are very recent history, look at the graph of BA below which spans about 12 years. Witness just how far BA has ascended over the past couple of years, and imagine the possibilities should the market ever start really falling (ahem, if it ever gets any traction in the downward direction). There's a looooong way to go.



For those interested, below are my current positions. I will once again state that this blog is merely a place for me to spout ideas and thoughts on the market. Your analysis is up to you. So trade at your own peril! Anyway, the underlying symbols for my put positions are:




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Monday, November 21, 2005What's Next for the Bulls & Bears?
These are the times that try bears' souls!

Between the "decennial" magic and this bullish time of year, bears are getting smushed. Some major indexes are reaching highs never seen before - - ever! Examples include the very important Dow Transports ($TRAN), the MidCap 400 ($MID) and less known but still important indexes like the Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 ($MSH) and the Morgan Stanley Internet ($MOX). These last two look extraordinarily bullish.

The Dow Jones 30 ($INDU) is only 180 points away from the psychologically important 11,000 level. The last time it got close, earlier this year, it turned tail and ran. Clearly if it manages to get onto the other side of 11,000, it will be extremely heartening to the bulls (big, round numbers make for great press).

I still believe - yep - that the market is ultimately in for a huge tumble. But you can't argue with the prices and the strength. This market has been powerfully strong since October 11, and there aren't any clear signs of it abating for any technical reason in the near term.

I am not seeing a huge quantity of individual stocks that look like great buys. Once exception is Quest Communications (symbol Q) which has a beautiful - - albeit slanted - - inverted H&S pattern. Notice, too, the handsome increase in volume in recent months:



The $MOX, mentioned earlier, sports a similar pattern, although it's so level you could do carpentry on top of it:



One cautionary note for you bulls out there - the VIX has, naturally, descended given the market's rise. It has reached a level not seen since July of this year, which was a high water mark for the market. I've highlighted the area of the VIX when it bottomed out and, subsequently, the market went into a sustained dive.



One short that has done quite nicely for me is PetsMart (which I've mentioned once or twice before). It's a beautiful head & shoulders pattern which has ascended to touch its neckline and, starting today, is moving away from it.




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Thursday, November 17, 2005The Bearish Case Weakens
Well, as much as I hate to admit it, the case of a downfall in the market anytime soon took another blow. Recent strength in the market - especially in the face of what should be viewed as weak economic data - speaks for itself. I'm getting very close to the point that even I'll have to admit the bulls are firmly in control for the forseeable future. (And some stocks are just beyond belief - check out NTRI and HANS!)

The S&P 500 ETF, the SPY, is getting terribly close to crossing above its highs for this year. If that happens, that will be the final nail in the bear's coffin for the time being:



Some major ETFs have already crossed into new high territory. Particularly strong is the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX):



Also strong, and until recently a favorite short of mine, is the MidCap 400 ($MID):



So, as long as I'm sheepishly visiting the bullish camp, how about some specific suggestions? The stocks below are in technical formations that appear quite attractive; I suggest you check out the charts and see for yourself:




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Tuesday, November 15, 2005Repelled!
As a devoted bear (ahem: duh) I have been nervously eyeing the Dow, which has been the strongest index of late and has threatened to cross above 10,725 in a meaningful way.

Over the past several months, the Dow has tried to pierce this level, as shown below. It has failed every time. And any failure to push past a resistance level only strengthens the bear's argument that that level will not be surpassed, and the fall will be just that much stronger when it comes.



I was disheartened to witness the Dow push through this level today, but the curious thing was that the 22 stocks in which I have short positions didn't follow suit. In spite of the Dow's strength, many of them remained weak.

Three hours before the close, the Dow peaked, it started falling, and it never looked back. Not to say today was some kind of amazing plunge - the Dow only lost about 10 points. But what's crucial is that the Dow was pushed away yet another time from this resistance level, and just about every index wound up in the red.

There are many time-based reasons the bulls have an upper hand. The decennial pattern (described here) is terribly potent. Plus the timeframe of November 1 to April 30 is traditionally the stronger half of the year. So the bears have plenty going against them. (I would note that, with 2005 almost over, the Dow is down a fraction of a percent. Hardly jibes with the awesome gains illustrated in the decennial pattern article).

As the Fibonacci retracement indicates below, this level of 10,725 is a key line in the sand. As long as it can stay below it, the odds of the market "cutting loose" to the downside stay strong. If this line is penetrated in a meaningful way and the prices close above this level, I will have to reconsider my position.




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Thursday, November 10, 2005Using Retracements Short- and Long-Term
Today's entry is going to be about using multiple Fibonacci retracements in different timeframes. Now, wait, wait; don't roll your eyes and turn on the TV just yet. This isn't as dry as you might think. Stay with me on this one.

The general point is that using the Fibonacci retracement is very useful not just for long term analysis but short term as well. On one given chart, you might have two, three, or even more retracements drawn.

For those of you relatively new to these, they are quite simple to draw - typically the reference line is drawn from one price extreme to another, and the retracement lines are automatically placed on the chart. Take one of my favorite examples these days - the NZD/USD currency pair (New Zealand/US Dollar). I have been touting this as a short position for quite some time.

Look at the chart below (frequent reminder: click on it for a bigger view). It shows the NZD/USD over the past couple of years. I've highlighted in green where the price tends to "hug" or bounce off of the various retracements. I find this behavior uncanny.



Although you can just barely see it, I've drawn another retracement way up in the upper-right hand corner of the graph. This is for just the past few weeks of activity. Below is a zoomed-in portion of that graph. Once again, you can see how the prices line up beautifully.



As you can see, these retracement levels are invaluable. If you are "between the lines" and moving either up or down in price, you already have advance warning as to where the price is probably going to pause. In addition, once it breaks through a price level (either up or down), you can have a higher degree of confidence that it will move more smoothly from that point until the next level is reached.


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Tuesday, November 08, 2005Two Great Short Ideas
Since this market still can't make up its mind about which direction it's going to go, I thought I'd share a couple of favorite short ideas, both of them in massive head & shoulders patterns. I've mentioned each of these before, but they are both so good, I wanted to revisit their latest charts.

The first, PetsMart (PETM) broke beneath its neckline, took a sharp fall, and then has retraced beautifully to the neckline. This is a gift! It represents a much lower-risk place to put in a short order. Prices don't always return to the neckline, and the stock has already "tipped its hand" about the direction it will probably go. I've put an arrow indicating a target price.



The second, Family Dollar Stores (FDO) is a much, much larger pattern. In fact, whereas the chart above spans five years, the chart for FDO spans a much broader period. In addition to being in a head & shoulders pattern (albeit not as squeaky-clean as PETM), it has broken beneath a major ascending trendline. So you have a breakdown from not just one pattern, but two.



Two reminders - first, you can click on any chart on this blog to see a bigger version; and second, take these suggestions at your own risk! Your own analysis needs to drive your trading. I merely offer these as interesting examples of technical patterns.


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Friday, November 04, 2005Revisiting FOREX (NZD/USD)
I've posted a couple of different times about the attractive short position in NZD/USD (which basically means the New Zealand Kiwi should fall in relation to the US Dollar).

This continues to be a good trade. Over the past several days the US Dollar has been very strong, so NZD/USD continues to get pounded.

As the graph below demonstrates, these markets are extremely volatile (the graph on the left is the past several days of the EUR/USD and on the right is NZD/USD). As the highlighted portion shows, these markets can spasm on news in one direction and then flip around and rush the other direction. Trying to trade on too short a time horizon is almost always a money-losing proposition in the FOREX markets.



I am not sure if NZD/USD is temporarily oversold at this point; it was definitely hammering out a short-term bottom near the end of trading today. The big picture remains superb for shorts. But, having fallen so far, it isn't as safe a bet in the short term since it could recover to the upside. Over the course of weeks and months, however, this still looks terrific.


at 11/04/2005 2 insightful comments
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Monday, October 31, 2005Knowing When You're Wrong
For those of you who follow this blog regularly (and there are millions!) you may recall I made a strong suggestion that Carter's (symbol CRI) was headed for a tumble in







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Wednesday, October 26, 2005The Bull & Bear War of 2005
Until Friday of last week, the market was a bear's dream. On Monday the 24th it became what looked like a nightmare, as the Dow rocketed over 160 points and there was strength across the board.

Now that a couple more days have passed, I have had the opportunity to look again at the markets overall. My point-of-view remains utterly unchanged. I still believe we are at the beginning of a major descent, and Monday's action was one of many "one-day wonders" that we are bound to see that will frighten less stalwart bears away.

As you may recall from my earlier postings, the market (specifically, the IWM, which is the broad Russell 2000 ETF) "kissed" the underside of its broken trendline not once but twice (as shown by the down-pointing red arrows on the graph below). On Monday it kissed it again, then it kissed it good-bye as it jumped to the other side.

This was discouraging at first, since it seeemed the broken trendline had been overcome. But look at the graph below. A violent war is ensuing between the bulls and bears. You can practically see the opposing sides shoving the price from one side to another of this "line in the sand" that is so important to the market's future direction.


The key, as always, is which side has more strength. Judging from the charts I am looking at (and I look at hundreds), there is an overwhelming case for a severe downfall. Trendline after trendline, Fibonacci after Fibonacci, they all point to the same thing - - that the market IS broken already, and we're going to keep heading lower in fits and starts.

Since I mentioned my beloved Fibonaccis, I'll point out again how marvelously helpful these can be in trading. OIH, which is representative of the oil group, descended sharply from its wild ride recently. It bounced perfectly off the retracement line, as you can see in the highlighted area below.

The upward bounce has exhausted itself. I re-entered the oil market on the short side in a big way today. Just look at the massive shooting star pattern (for you candlestick fans out there). As always, just click on the image to see a bigger version.




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