一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Since I trade medium term now (weeks), I look at weekly/daily charts and trade, so here's my analysis of GJ. IMO a good retracement is due, atleast to the famous 50% which is 223, where a strong support was broken and never tested again, so it should be a very strong resistance now. The weekly QQE is also at the bottom of it's range, very very close to oversold area. I like to keep things simple and stupid.

hefeiddd

We just got a 4H candle breakout from the downward channel we've been in for several weeks, things are looking great

hefeiddd

Hallo Karmostaji!

I am with you on the retracement. Maybe I will bail out with my profits a bit earlier, but I will surely have the patience to see the little butterfly take off. In fact the pattern is so large, that I had to get the compression up to make it digestable.

Let's see when it comes to its fruition!

See ya!
Gnat
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Hallo Karmostaji!

Here we have a possible messenger for the retracement that the GBPJPY loves as an interlude! And the upward move was really very nice and rewarding! Closed just 30 min. ago

Greetz!
Gnat

Sorry: Mistake in the snapshot - last formation was a butterfly too. Looking strange!
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hefeiddd

I still stand with the same view and here's an updated weekly chart.

hefeiddd

Price is currently retracing from it's last move down, I believe the retracement might be over at 50% (208.47) or 61.8% (209.65) before it starts the next leg down towards the the monthly 50% (199.63), but I'm waiting for confirmation from the new weekly momentum, I'll confirm it once I get it.

hefeiddd

As long as price is above the 4H Gann hilo, bulls are in control for now.
I'm waiting for the new weekly momentum, we'll get it in a couple of hours.

4H chart
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Hey karmo, Just an observation and question to consider. Could the the retrace already be fullfilled to the 38.2 ? Could the weight of the down trend be so great that it could only retrace partially to the 50fib, which was only 60 pips away?
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They line up nicely. Could be a great buying opportunity. Thanks again.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-26 14:02 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

On the 4H chart, price is still in this bullish channel, if we break to the downside, we will also have the 4H gann and QQE to cross down, so basically we'll be getting 2 confirmations of downward movement coming up, until then have some patience and relax
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Ok, very interesting stuff!
New weekly momentum is VERY BULLISH, opposite what I was expecting so we have to be very careful.. keep an eye on the Daily gann, if price breaks above and closes above then we are going much higher, I'll figure out later where price might go (falling asleep here it's 4am lol)
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hefeiddd

Ok I just drew a new fibo on the weekly and the 50% is at 217, this number keeps coming back to me lol, who knows.
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Price testing lower trendline and 205.85 is a good S/R area.
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hefeiddd

Took a small long position at the 205.75.Attached Images





205.45 has a S/R history
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since momentum is extremely bullish, I'm concentrating more on the bulls for now. A daily close above 209.50 which is the Daily gann hilo will be great for the bulls, here's a chart..
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-26 14:16 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

The Daily gann hilo also coincides with the Daily trendline and the Daily 50ema, so the 209.50 is a very important and strong area, it will be a do or die mission for the bulls if price gets there, if they don't break it then price will fall the same way it did last time it went up to 213 area. here's the daily TLAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Nice Daily Pin Bar on the USDJPY, at a trend line. Let's see if it proves true.
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hefeiddd

Adjusted the bullish channel a little, it's looking much better n clearer now.
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New 4H momentum is bullish
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hefeiddd

I got a clear path to 207.00. I don't see anything in the way.
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Perfect setup short : Price Action, Gann, trendline break, break of the QQE 50 level.

DBHLC:
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The best case is the Highs are the same, but they seem to work if they are close within 20-30 pips. I didn't mean to highlight 3 candles, sorry.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-26 14:21 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

4H Bollinger bands indicate that a breakout is going to occur today/tomorrow and price is still trading in the bullish channel.
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I just drew a new trendline (red) and price seems to be bouncing off it, I don't know if price is really respecting that or not, but keep an eye on it.

hefeiddd

Here's another thing I like to watch, harmonic patterns.
We currently have a bullish butterfly on 1H TF (not a perfect one, but it's valid)

Targets are the fib lines, as you all know 50% is the favorite.
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New Daily momentum on VT is bearish
Daily Gann moved down to 208

we could see a retest of the low at 203
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Hourly candle closed above the Gann hilo, momentum slightly bearish indicating a retracement to the 1H 5sma, that's where I'll launch my long.
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New daily momentum is very bullish and the daily gann is just above, if tomorrow's candle closes above the daily gann then say hello to 213.50 and then 217

Remember also that the weekly momentum was extremely bullish!
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New 4H momentum remains very bullish
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-26 14:27 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

karmo look at this charts , what do u think

Today:



In Jan.

hefeiddd

How pretty is this DBLHC at a S/R level. Gann and QQE looking good.

If this doesn't screams long, I don't know what does.
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I miss that too. Do you foresee another dip? Usually Price Action on higher time frames (although not lately) retraces into the pattern. Fib retracements are a good guide.
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hefeiddd

Here are my S/R levels.Attached Images

hefeiddd

my daily chart show some room & gj may go up to 50% or 61.8%. gu daily chart show a bigest posibility to see down move next days. that will prevent gj from posibility to go up to much. that is what I see on the charts...
any comments are well come...
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hefeiddd

Hi Karmo and everybody,
I think we are going in a new channel in the daily chart.We have to wait and see.
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New daily momentum remains bullish, so I'll buy dips and once the 1H QQE crosses upwards n candle closes above, longs should be safe.
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Price retraced down near the 38 fib of the DBLHC. This time I caught it at 206.50. Longs may be strong and not reach the 50 fib retrace.
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