一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:02

Daily Technical Outlook On USD/CHF
Updating time : 27/02/2008 01:00 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0760...The greenback fell sharply y'day after meeting renewed selling at 1.0819 n price hit a new record low of 1.0705 in Australia this morning (in line with eur/usd's rally abv the 1.5000 lvl to 1.5050) b4 staging a recovery on profit taking.

Y'day's selloff below 1.0729 (Feb 1 low) confirms MT downtrend has finally resumed n below 1.0705 wud extend weakness to previously-mentioned measured obj. at 1.0674 (50% proj. of 1.1598-1.0729 fm 1.1108) but oversold readings on 13-hr rsi n hourly oscillators shud limit downside to 1.0622 today (61.8% proj. of 1.2469-1.0889 fm 1.1598) n risk has increased for a corrective rebound to take place. Therefore, trading fm short side is favoured but readers shud be prudent n exit on next fall.

On the upside, abv 1.0800/10 wud signal temporary low is possibly made n a break of 1.0835/36 (prev. sup n 38.2% r of 1.1048-1.0705) wud bring correction twds 1.0880/85 but reckon res area at 1.0919/30 (Feb 26 n 25 highs resp) wud hold n yield another decline...
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Daily Technical Outlook On Gbp/usd
Updating time : 28/02/2008 00:25 GMT

GBP/USD - 1.9830...Although cable rallied fm 1.9644 to 1.9972 in Asia n
European morning y'day, price then retreated to 1.9826 b4 staging another bounce, however, the British pound fell again in U.S. session fm 1.9937 to 1.9791 (price briefly touched the trend-following 55-hr ema) on active cross selling in sterling (due to speculation that the Bank of England may cut interest rates). Despite y'day's relatively volatile movements, readers who followed our intra-day n daily recommendations wud have made a total profit of 247 points.

Y'day's selloff signals recent upmove has formed a temporary top n below
o/n NY low at 1.9791 wud bring correction to 1.9751/55 (61.8% r of 1.9615-1.9972 n previous minor res), however, reckon 1.9708/10 sup wud hold fm here n yield a rebound later.

On the upside, abv 1.9882 (50% r of 1.9972-1.9791) wud suggest corrective
fall fm y'day's high at 1.9972 has possibly ended but a break of 1.9937 res is
needed to indicate recent upmove has resumed for re-test of 1.9972 n then twds the 'psychological' 2.0000 lvl...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:03

Daily Technical Outlook On Usd/jpy
Updating time : 28/02/2008 23:55 GMT

USD/JPY - 104.85...Dlr moved sideways in Asia n despite a brief recovery
to 106.65 in European morning, price then nose-dived to 105.07 in line with the greenback's broad-based weakness (weak U.S. economic data releases added to the bearish sentiment on dlr). The pair has just fallen to a new 3-year 104.65 low this morning on cross buying in yen (unwinding of carry trades).

Dlr's breach of 104.95 (Jan '08 low) confirms the MT decline fm 124.14
(June '07 high) has resumed n below 104.65 wud extend weakness to 104.20 (daily chart sup n also 61.8% proj. of 124.14-107.22 fm 114.66) but as hourly oscillators are approaching o/sold territory, reckon 103.65/77 (sup n 50% proj. of 114.66-104.95 fm 108.62) shud contain downside n yield a corrective rebound later. Looking ahead, a daily close below 103.65 wud bring 'eventual' re-test of 2005 low at 101.67 in March.

On the upside, abv 105.45 wud signal a temporary low has been formed n yield correction to 105.65 (50% r of 106.65-104.65) but 105.95/106.02 (prev. sup n 38.2% r of 108.23-104.65) shud limit gain, bring another fall later...
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Weekly Technical Outlook On Usd/chf
Updating time : 03/03/2008 00:45 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0340...Dlr has collapsed to a new record low (this morning's low in Australia is 1.0322) in line with the greenback's broad-based selloff (weak U.S. economic data has increased the likelihood of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed this month) n also active cross buying in chf (eur/chf has fallen to its lowest since Aug '06 on unwinding of carry trades due to risk aversion).

Dlr's MT downtrend is likely to extend to 1.0239 (equality proj. of
1.1598-1.0729 fm 1.1108) n then twds 1.0090/00 but as the 13-day rsi n daily stochastics are approaching o/sold territory, reckon 'psychological' 1.0000 lvl (below equality proj. of 1.2469-1.0889 fm 1.1598 at 1.0018) wud limit downside n yield a much-needed correction later.

Abv 1.0485 (prev. sup) wud indicate low has been formed n bring retrace.to 1.0554 (38.2% r of 1.0930-1.0322) n possibly twds 1.0611 (prev. sup) but res at 1.0654 should hold.

Today, present o/sold readings on hourly stochastics suggest recovery wouldd be seen b4 decline resumes to 1.0260/70. Abv 1.0426 risks 1.0440/50 n 1.0485...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:04

Daily Technical Outlook On Eur/usd
Updating time : 04/03/2008 00:04 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5195...The single currency rose briefly to another record
high at 1.5276 y'day b4 retreating to 1.5158 as traders covered short dlr
positions after the release of a better-than-expected U.S. ISM (manufacturing) index, however, euro recovered to around 1.5210/15 in N.Y. afternoon in part due to cross buying vs yen n chf.

Although y'day's retreat fm 1.5276 suggests recent upmove has possibly
formed a temporary top (the peaks of 1.5240 n 1.5276 have been accompanied by bearish divergences on hourly oscillators), a break below 1.5144 sup is needed to confirm this view n bring correction twds 1.5095 (equality proj. of 1.5276-1.5158 fm 1.5213), subsequent breach of 1.5074 wud yield further weakness twds 1.5019/27 (sup n 50% r of 1.4778-1.5276).

On the upside, abv 1.5240 wud bring re-test of aforesaid y'day's high at
1.4276 n break there wud extend gain twd 1.5300 (61.8% proj. of 1.4778-1.5144 fm 1.5074), however, loss of upward momentum shud prevent strg rise n yield much- needed correction later this week...
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Daily Technical Outlook On Eur/usd
Updating time : 06/03/2008 00:02 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5272...Although euro fell fm 1.5221 to 1.5145 in European
morning y'day on the back of the intra-day selloff in cable, the single currency
then rallied to a fresh record high at 1.5305 (price reached our weekly target
at 1.5300) in line with dlr's broad-based weakness n also cross buying in euro
esp vs yen on carry trade demand.

Today, as price is trading well abv both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting
uptrend wud resume after minor consolidation n abv 1.5305 wud extend gain twds 1.5320/30, however, anticipated o/bot readings on hourly oscillators shud limit upside to 1.5363 (61.8% proj. of 1.3264-1.4968 fm 1.4310) n risk has increased for another correction later (ECB is expected to keep rates on hold today but profit taking may occur ahead of tomorrow's release of U.S. non-farm payrolls).

Therefore, buying on pullback is favoured but readers shud be prudent n
take profit on subsequent rise. Below 1.5206 (61.8% r of 1.5145-1.5305) wud
signal a temporary top has been formed n risk retracement to 1.5160/70, possibly twds near term strg sup area at 1.5144/45...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:05

Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 07/03/2008 00:16 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5387...The single currency rose y'day on the back of dlr's broad-based weakness n also the hawkish comments fm ECB President Trichet in the press conference following ECB's expected decision to keep rates on hold. Euro hit another fresh record high at 1.5396 in Australia this morning b4 easing.

Although price is trading with a firm undertone, the bearish divergences on 15-min oscillators combined with overbought readings on hourly oscillators shud prevent strg gain in Asia n as long as the upper hourly Bollinger band (currently at 1.5408 n starting to flatten) holds, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for a much-needed pullback twds 1.5305/09, below there wud signal temp. top is made n yield further weakness to 1.5271 (50% r of 1.5145-1.5396) n 1.5250 (traders may use today's non-farm payrolls data n the weekend as an opportunity to take profits).

In the event euro stages another rally (possibly due to a very weak U.S. employment report), further gain to 1.5450/60 n then 1.5500 (psychological lvl) can't be ruled out but reckon 1.5569 shud cap upside n yield retreat next week.
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Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 10/03/2008 00:07 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5385...The single currency rose to another record high at 1.5465 on Friday on the back of a weak U.S. job employment report (non-farm payrolls fell for the second consecutive) month b4 retreating sharply to 1.5313 on position adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Although euro's retreat fm 1.5465 suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed, a break below 1.5309/13 (prev. res n Friday's low) is needed to confirm n bring correction of recent uptrend twds 1.5203/07 (38.2% r of 1.4778-1.5465 n minor sup) but 1.5145 (last Wednesday's low) shud hold n yield another rise this week. Abv 1.5465 wud extend gain to the 'psychological' 1.5500 lvl (sizeable option barriers are rumoured to be placed there) n a daily close abv there wud yield eventual headway to 1.5633/43 (equality proj. of 1.5145-1.5465 fm 1.5313 n equality proj. of 1.4778-1.5276 fm 1.5145) n then 1.5700.

Today, as long as 1.5433/36 (minor res n 80.9% r of 1.5465-1.5313) holds, consolidation with downside bias is seen for another corrective fall to 1.5267 (61.8% r of 1.5145-1.5465). Abv 1.5433/36 wud risk re-test of 1.5465 1st...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:06

Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 12/03/2008 00:01 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5343...The single currency rallied to a fresh record high at 1.5496 y'day after the release of better-than-expected German n eurozone ZEW surveys, however, the subsequent selloff fm there to 1.5282 (heavy offers emerged to defend an option barrier at the 'psychological' 1.5500 lvl) after the Fed introduced new liquidity measures signals a temporary top has been formed n choppy consolidation is expected today with downside bias.

Therefore, selling euro on recovery is favoured as 1.5407/14 (minor res n 61.8% r of 1.5496-1.5282) shud cap upside n yield another corrective fall, below y'day's low at 1.5282 wud extend weakness to 1.5250 (prev. res) n possibly twd 1.5222 (38.2% r of the intermediate rise fm 1.4778-1.5496) b4 prospect of a rebound later (position traders can use such decline as a buying opportunity as per our weekly outlook).

On the upside, only abv 1.5407/14 wud defer this near term bearish scenario on euro n risk gain to 1.5465 (prev. record high made on Friday) but abv there is needed to signal uptrend has resumed for re-test of 1.5496/1.5500..
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Updating time : 12/03/2008 23:45 GMT

USD/JPY - 101.35...The dollar fell y'day in line with the greenback's
selloff across the board (the sentiment twds the Fed's new liquidity measures
turned out to be less optimistic) n price hit a new 13-year low at 101.10 in
part due to active cross buying in yen (unwinding of yen carry trades due to
risk aversion).

Dlr's breach of 101.25 (1999 low) signals downside break of the LT broad
sideways range of 101.25-135.20 has finally taken place n below 101.10 (option-
related stops are likely to emerge below the 101.00 lvl n traders have been
aware of verbal intervention fm Japanese officials this week) wud extend the
major fall fm 147.64 (1998) to 100.48 (61.8% proj. of 108.62-102.60 fm 104.20) n
then twds the 'psychological' 100.00 sup lvl (just abv 50% proj. of 108.62-
101.40 fm 103.60 at 99.99).

On the upside, only abv 102.18/21 (50% of 103.27-101.10 n previous sup)
wud indicate a temporary low has been formed n bring stronger recovery twds
102.81/83 but reckon 103.27 res (y'day's reaction high in Europe) shud hold...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:07

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 14/03/2008 01:11 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0124...Dlr fell to a new record low at 1.0045 in European morning y'day b4 rebounding to 1.0161 (o/n NY high) due to the comments fm Standard & Poor's who said an end to the sub-prime crisis was 'in sight' n also cross selling in chf (eur/chf rose fm 1.5678-1.5821), however, price retreated fm 1.0161 to 1.0082 (this morning's low made in Australia) on renewed selling in the greenback esp vs euro.

Although y'day's recovery fm 1.0045 suggests initial consolidation abv there is in store, a break of 1.0161/69 is needed to confirm temporary low has been formed n bring another corrective rise to 1.0198/00 (equality proj. of 1.0045-1.0161 fm 1.0082 n 50% r of 1.0355-1.0045), however, upside shud be capped below minor res at 1.0248.

Today, selling on recovery is favoured n a firm breach of 1.0082 wud signal MT downtrend has resumed n bring re-test of y'day's low at 1.0045 n then twds 'psychological' 1.0000 lvl (parity)...
*** T.G.I.F. ***
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Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 17/03/2008 00:17 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5765...The single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.5282 last Tuesday n rallied to a fresh record high at 1.5773 (made this morning in Australia) on the back of the dlr's broad-based selloff n also cross buying vs sterling despite comments fm several European officials expressing concerns over euro's recent strength.

Price continues to trade well abv the 13-day n 55-day (currently now at 1.5401 n 1.4953) n further gain to 1.5902 (equality proj. of 1.5282-1.5652 fm 1.5532) is seen but a breach of 'psychological' 1.6000 lvl (this lvl is also equivalent to equality proj. of 1.4778-1.5496 fm 1.5282) is needed to extend to 1.6100/10, however, daily oscillators are already in o/bot territory n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place.

Below 1.5646/52 (prev. res) wud be the 1st signal a temporary top has been formed n bring pullback to 1.5600/10, however, a break of 1.5532 (Friday's low) is needed to confirm n a retracement of the intermediate rise fm 1.5282 wud follow...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:08

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 18/03/2008 23:55 GMT

USD/JPY - 99.92...The dlr started to rise in Asian morning y'day on the back of cross selling in yen n despite a sharp but brief retreat fm 98.82 to 97.81 following the Fed's 75 basis-point rate cut (some economists have been expecting a 100 basis-point reduction), the greenback surged again in line with the rally in U.S. stocks to 100.45 (high made in Australia this morning) b4
retreating on profit taking.

Today, although dlr's pullback fm 100.45 suggests consolidation below this intra-day high wud be seen, as long as 98.82 (previous res n also 61.% r of 97.81-100.45) holds, the rise fm this week's multi-year low at 95.77 to retrace recent decline shud resume n abv said res wud extend gain twds 100.70/80 but 101.15/25 res area shud cap upside due to o/bot readings on hourly oscillators.

On the downside, below 98.82 wud risk stronger retreat to 98.43 (present lvl of the 55-hr ema) but break there is needed to indicate aforesaid rise fm 95.77 is being retraced instead n yield further weakness to 98.11 (50% r of 95.77-100.45) n then twds 97.75/81 (previous res n o/n post Fed rate cut low)...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 20/03/2008 01:02 GMT

USD/CHF - 0.9993...Despite the initial retreat fm 1.0058 (y'day's high in Australia) to 0.9869, dlr then rebounded fm there to 1.0030 (in part due to a robust earnings report fm Morgan Stanley) b4 retreating in N.Y. afternoon, with the late retreat in eur/chf limiting the pair's upside somewhat.

Looking at the hourly chart, further 'gyrations' inside the near term range of 0.9869-1.0058 is likely in Asia n only a firm breach of 1.0030 wud signal the corrective rise fm this week's record low at 0.9630 has resumed, yield further gain twds 1.0127 (38.2% r of 1.0930-0.9630) but res at 1.0161 (abv present lvl of the 13-day ema at 1.0150) shud remain intact n bring another decline later.

On the downside, below minor sup at 0.9931 wud yield re-test of 0.9869 n a break there wud extend weakness twds 0.9785/93 (sup n 61.8% r of 0.9630-1.0058), however, dlr needs to penetrate this lvl to indicate MT downtrend has possibly resumed n bring eventual re-test of aforesaid low at 0.9630. We will stand aside initially but readers shud look out for any special daily updates...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:09

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 24/03/2008 23:51 GMT

USD/JPY - 100.73...Dlr found renewed buying at 99.63 y'day as U.S. traders returned fm the Easter weekend n the pair rallied to 100.90 on cross trading vs yen on the back of the 187-point rise in the Dow (supported by stronger-than- expected U.S.existing home sales data).

Y'day's breach of 100.45 confirms the upmove fm last week's low at 95.77 to retrace MT downtrend has resumed n as price is trading abv both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, further gain twds 101.15/25 res area (101.25 also happens to be 1999 low) is envisaged, however, anticipated o/bot readings on hourly oscillators shud limit upside to 101.60/70 n 102.20 (natural half retracement of the intermediate decline fm 108.62-95.77) wud hold.

Therefore, buying on dips is favoured but readers shud be prudent n take profit on next rise. Below 100.12/16 (61.8% r of 99.63-100.90 n prev. res) wud signal temp. top has been formed n risk correction twds 99.63 (y'day's NY low) but 99.27/31 sup area (50% r of 97.67-100.90 is 99.29) wud contain weakness n yield another upmove later this week...
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Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 26/03/2008 00:07 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5615...Euro rallied in Asia y'day on the back of active buying fm Asian CBs n sovereign names n the subsequent release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data further helped to push the single currency to 1.5660 b4 a retreat was seen in Australia this morning.

Y'day's rally indicates the correction fm 1.5905 (March 17 record top) has formed a low earlier this week at 1.5341 n as price is trading abv both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, further gain to 1.5690 (61.8% r of 1.5905-1.5341) is seen after consolidation, however, the o/bot readings on hourly stochastics shud cap upside below 1.5732/40 (res n 70.7% r of 1.5905-1.5341) n risk has increased for a retreat later. Looking ahead, euro needs to penetrate 1.5786 (March 19) to con-firm correction is over n bring resumption of MT uptrend for re-test of 1.5905.

Therefore, buying euro on pullback is favoured today but readers shud look to take profit on next rise. Below 1.5525/26 (y'day's low in Europe n present lvl of the 55-hr ema) wud signal top is made n risk stronger retracement to 1.5501 (50% r of 1.5341-1.5660) n possibly twds 1.5473 (prev. res)...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:10

Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
Updating time : 27/03/2008 00:18 GMT

GBP/USD - 2.0081...Despite the brief euro-led rise to 2.0112 in European morning y'day (after release of stronger-than-expected German Ifo index), cable then nose-dived to 1.9927 on active cross selling in sterling on dovish comments fm BOE policy makers b4 rising again in U.S. session due to renewed selling in dlr on weak U.S. durable goods data (which caused DJI to fall by 109 points).

Although cable has traded with a firm undertone after the o/n rally n a re-test of y'day's high at 2.0112 is likely, the bearish divergences on hourly oscillators shud cap upside below 2.0152/60 (res n 61.8% proj. of 1.9735-2.0112 fm 1.9927) n yield a minor correction later.

Looking at the daily chart, cable's correction fm 2.0399 (March 14) has ended earlier at 1.9735 n a firm break abv 2.0152 wud bring further headway to 2.0204 (70.7% r of 2.0399-1.9735) n then twds pivotal res at 2.0275.

Today, we will refrain fm chasing cable's rise here n instead, stand aside in the meantime. Below 2.0015/20 (50% r of 1.9927-2.0103 n sup) wud prolong 'choppy' trading n risk weakness to 1.9950/60 n possibly twds 1.9927...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 27/03/2008 23:33 GMT

USD/JPY - 99.55...Although dlr declined to 98.56 in Asian morning y'day, the greenback rebounded strongly fm there on active cross selling in yen n numerous stops were triggered as price rose to 100.17 (y'day's robust U.S. personal consumption data gave brief support to the pair) b4 retreating in N.Y. afternoon on cross unwinding as U.S. stocks fell in late trade.

Looking at the bigger picture, this week's selloff fm 101.04 suggests the early corrective rise fm 95.77 (March 17) has possibly formed a top there n despite y'day's rebound fm 98.56, outlook is 'consolidative' n reckon 100.57/67 (80.9% r of 101.04-98.56 n res) wud limit upside, yield retreat later.

On the downside, below minor sup 99.23 wud indicate recovery fm y'day's low at 98.56 has ended but break of 98.90/00 is needed to signal aforesaid fall fm 101.04 has resumed, yield re-test of y'day's low at 98.56 n later 98.10/20.

In view of current mixed outlook, we will stand aside initially but readers shud keep an eye out for any special daily updates (note today's U.S. data releases may move the markets in the same manner as y'day)...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:12

Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 01/04/2008 00:15 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5773...Despite y'day's anticipated breach of last week's top of 1.5859, the single currency was unable to penetrate 08' record high at 1.5905 as heavy option-defensive offers capped intra-day rally to 1.5897 n price fell sharply fm there to 1.5748 (Australia) b4 staging a minor recovery.

The decline fm 1.5897 strongly suggests further choppy consolidation below 1.5905 wud continue until release of the key U.S. payrolls data this Friday n although nr term downside bias is seen today, a firm breach of sup at 1.5726 is needed to confirm early strg rise fm 1.5341 has indeed made a top n bring a stronger retracement of this move to 1.5685 1st (38% r), however, reckon 1.5619 (50% r) wud contain weakness n yield rebound.

Although selling euro on recovery is favoured, as the nr term decline fm 1.5897 is 'losing momentum', we're standing aside initially n look to sell on subsequent rebound as upside shud falter well below 1.5859 (prev. res) n yield another fall, however, one shud take profit on decline as only a break of said sup at 1.5726 is needed to retain bearishness on euro...
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Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
Updating time : 02/04/2008 01:03 GMT

GBP/USD - 1.9782...Y'day was a volatile day for cable as price dropped initially to 1.9738 in European opening b4 staging a cross-inspired rebound to 1.9875, however, the British pound fell again in U.S. trading to 1.9728 (lowest since March 5) on the back of dlr's broad-based rise in line with the Dow's 391-point rally (dovish comments fm U.K. PM Brown also put pressure on sterling).

Y'day's breach of 1.9735 (March 20 low) indicates the decline fm 2.0399 to retrace the rise fm 1.9337 (Jan '08 low) has resumed n downside bias remains for weakness to 1.9690/00 n then twds 1.9648 (70.7% r of 1.9337-2.0399), however, bullish convergences on the hourly oscillators shud keep price abv 1.9615 sup n risk has increased for a rebound later.

Therefore, selling on recovery is favoured but readers shud take profit on next fall (markets are likely to be choppy again with U.S. ADP employment data n Fed chief Bernanke's testimony later today). Abv 1.9875 wud signal a temporary low has been formed n risk gain to 1.9906/09 (50% r of 2.0090-1.9728 n 38.2% r of 2.0193) but 1.9945 res shud limit upside...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:13

Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 03/04/2008 00:18 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5657...Trading the single currency proved to tricky y'day as despite staging a strg bounce in Europe after falling initially to 1.5533, price then fell sharply but briefly to 1.5578 due to release of stronger-than-expected U.S. ADP employment report, however, admission by the Fed chairman in his testimony at the U.S. congress that the world's largest economy may contract in the 1st half of this year caused dlr (as well as U.S. stocks) to drop across the board, euro subsequently climbed to 1.5702 b4 easing.

The strg rebound fm 1.5533 confirms euro's decline fm this Monday's top at 1.5897 has made a low n consolidation with initial upside bias is seen for a retracement of this move, having said that, as 15 min. oscillators wud display bearish divergences on next rise, further sharp gain abv 1.5726 (prev. sup) is not envisaged n reckon dynamic res at 1.5755 (62% r of 1.5897-1.5533) wud hold n yield another decline later today.

Therefore, selling on intra-day upmove in anticipation of a strg retreat
is favoured but below 1.5533 needed to extend weakness twd 1.5490/00...
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Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 06/04/2008 23:55 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5731...Despite last week's selloff to 1.5510, euro rebounded fm there on cross buying esp vs yen n chf (for carry trade demand purposes) n hit an intra-day high of 1.5775 on Friday following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls b4 retreating sharply to 1.5682 on profit taking ahead of the weekend.

Looking at the daily chart, broad outlook remains 'consolidative' as euro continues to gyrate inside the established range of 1.5341-1.5905 n below 1.5638 wud bring another fall to 1.5510, break there wud extend to 1.5447/56 (80.9% r of 1.5341-1.5905 n prev. res) but sup at 1.5341 is expected to remain intact.

Abv 1.5775/89 wud extend gain to 1.5846/59 (61.8% proj. of 1.5510-1.5775 fm 1.5682 n res) but only a breach of 1.5897/1.5905 res area confirms MT uptrend has finally resumed n yields further headway to the 'psychological' 1.6000 lvl.

Today, as long as Friday's high at 1.5775 holds, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen n below 1.5682 wud bring stronger retracement of the near term rise fm 1.5510 to 1.5555/60 but reckon 1.5638 shud limit weakness...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:14

Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
Updating time : 08/04/2008 00:41 GMT

GBP/USD - 1.9902...Cable tumbled fm 1.9956 to 1.9835 in Asia n European morning y'day on the back of dlr's rise across the board n also cross selling in sterling on expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates later this week, however, the British pound has risen this morning in line with the intra-day rally in the euro, suggesting the near term decline fm 2.0050 (lastFriday's high) has formed a low at 1.9835 n consolidation with mild upside bias is seen in Asia.

Looking at the bigger picture, the 13-day n 55-day emas are 'horizontal', suggesting choppy trading inside the broad range of 1.9728-2.0193 is likely to continue n abv 1.9956 (y'day's high in Australia) wud yield gain to 1.9985/90 but aforesaid res at 2.0050 shud hold on 1st testing.

On the downside, below sup area at 1.9835/45 wud bring another fall twds 1.9790 (80.9% r of 1.9728-2.0050) but only a firm breach of pivotal sup at 1.9760 wud signal erratic decline fm 2.0399 (last month's high) has resumed instead n re-test of 1.9728 wud follow...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 08/04/2008 23:26 GMT

USD/JPY - 102.73...Despite y'day's stronger-than-expected fall to 101.76 (partly due to cross unwinding in yen) in European morning, dlr rose strongly fm there in line with the greenback's broad-based strength, suggesting correction fm last week's top at 102.95 has ended earlier at 101.30 but a break of said res is needed to confirm recent erratic rise fm 95.77 (March low) to retrace MT downtrend has finally resumed, extend gain to 103.20/25 n then 103.50/60, being 50% proj. of 98.56-102.95 fm 101.30 n daily chart res, however, 104.01 (61.8% proj.) is expected to hold fm here.

Today, buying dlr on pullback is favoured but readers shud look to take profit on next rise as hourly stochastics are displaying o/bot readings (now at 87) n risk has increased for a retreat later.

On the downside, a breach of y'day's low at 101.76 wud prolong 'choppy' trading below 102.95 n yield weakness to 101.30 but a only break of latter sup wud signal correction of recent upmove is under way, risk further subsequent decline to 100.76 (50% r of 98.56-102.95, adjust latter lvl if necessary)...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:15

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 10/04/2008 00:49 GMT

USD/CHF - 0.9990...Dlr was unable to penetrate Monday's high at 1.0173 (y'day's high in Australia was 1.0170) n fell sharply to 0.9975 in U.S. session
in line with greenback's selloff across the board n also cross buying in chf (unwinding of carry trades on weak global stocks).

Y'day's cross-inspired selloff below 1.0015 signals the erratic decline fm 1.0218 has resumed n further fall to 0.9922/32 (1.236 times ext. of 1.0218-1.0015 measured fm 1.0173 n sup) is envisaged, however, anticipated o/sold readings on 15-min n hourly oscillators wud keep price abv 0.9870 n 'choppy' consolidation inside 0.9870-1.0250 range shud continue. Looking ahead, a daily close below 0.9870 wud indicate the correction fm this year's record low at 0.9630 has ended earlier at 1.0250 n extend weakness to 0.9785 n 0.9748 (80.9% r of 0.9630-1.0250).

On the upside, abv 1.0067 (prev. sup) wud risk rebound to 1.0108/09 but break there is needed to signal temporary low has been formed instead n yield
retracement to 1.0140/50...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 10/04/2008 23:27 GMT

USD/JPY - 101.88...Although dlr nose-dived in Asia on cross buying in yen (on the back of the strength in Asian currencies such Chinese yuan n Singapore dlr) n hit an intra-day low of 100.03 in Europe, price then rallied in U.S. session in line with the greenback's broad-based rebound n selling of yen on renewed demand for carry trades.

Dlr's cross-inspired rally fm 100.03 signals the decline fm 102.95 has formed a low there n consolidation with upside bias is seen, abv 102.18 (this morning's high in Australia) wud extend marginal gain to 102.30/40 but o/bot readings on hourly stochastics (now at 91) shud cap price below 102.75/95 res area n yield further 'choppy' trading. In the event the greenback is able to penetrate 102.95, this wud confirm the erratic rise fm 95.77 low to retrace MT downtrend has resumed n further headway to 103.60 wud be seen next week.

Below 101.30/36 (sup n 38.2% r of 100.03-102.18) wud bring pullback to 100.70/80 but 100.03 is expected to hold on 1st testing. We will stand aside for day trade but readers shud keep an eye out for any special updates....
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:15

Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 14/04/2008 00:32 GMT

WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF

USD/CHF - 1.0065...Although price fell fm 1.0173 to 0.9888 last week in line with the greenback's broad-based selloff (on dlr-negative comments fm Fed officials n also the IMF's bearish outlook on the U.S. economy), dlr was unable to penetrate daily sup at 0.9870 (March 31) n the subsequent rebound to 1.0090 suggests further 'choppy' trading inside the established range of 0.9870-1.0250 wud continue with mild upside bias, abv 1.0173 wud extend gain to 1.0218 but a break of latter res is needed to signal another leg of correction fm this year's record low at 0.9630 is under way n further headway to 1.0355/69 (res n 50% r of the MT intermediate decline fm 1.1108-0.9630) n then twds 1.0490 (equality proj. of 0.9630-1.0250) fm 0.9870 wud follow.

On the downside, below 0.9967 (last Friday's low) wud yield re-test of
0.9870/88 but only a breach of this sup area wud indicate aforesaid corrective rise fm 0.9630 has ended earlier at 1.0250, bring resumption of MT downtrend to 0.9785 n then twds 0.9630 later this month...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 15/04/2008 00:29 GMT

USD/CHF - 0.9995...Dlr opened higher in NZ y'day following the weekend's G7 comments only to fall as traders opted to sell the greenback again n price declined to 0.9925 b4 rebounding in U.S. session on profit taking n also cross selling in chf.

Although y'day's cross-inspired bounce fm 0.9925 suggests choppy trading abv 0.9870/88 sup area wud continue, broad outlook is consolidative n reckon 1.0080/90 (April 14 n 11 highs resp) wud cap upside, yield another fall to 0.9950/60 n then re-test of 0.9925, however, a breach of 0.9870 is needed to confirm 'downside break' of the established range of 0.9870-1.0250 has finally taken place n extend weakness to 0.9785 n then twds 0.9748 (80.9% r of the rise fm record low at 0.9630-1.0250).

Therefore, selling on further recovery for day trade is favoured but readers shud be prudent n take profit on subsequent fall. A firm break abv 1.0090 wud abort this bearish scenario n risk further gain to 1.0145/50 n possibly twds res at 1.0173...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:17

Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 16/04/2008 23:45 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5958...The single currency surged to a fresh record high at 1.5980 (exactly equality proj. of 1.5658-1.5887 fm 1.5751) y'day after eurozone consumer prices increased by more than expected, increasing speculation that the ECB wud leave interest rates unchanged to combat inflation (compared to the Fed n BOE who are expected to ease monetary policy to boost the U.S. n U.K. economy respectively), euro also rose strongly in cross trading against jpy n gbp.

As price is now trading abv both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting MT uptrend is likely to resume after consolidation n a break of y'day's high at 1.5980 wud extend gain to the 'psychological' 1.6000 lvl, however, abv there is needed to
bring further headway to 1.6040/50 n later 1.6074 (50% proj. of 1.4440-1.5905 fm 1.5341), however, anticipated o/bot readings on hourly stochastics shud cap price well below 1.6122 (1.618 times ext. of 1.5658-1.887 fm 1.5751).

Therefore, buying on pullback is favoured but readers shud take profit on
rebound. Below 1.5866 (50% r of 1.5751-1.5980) wud signal temporary top has been formed y'day n risk correction twd 1.5815 (prev. res) but 1.5751 shud hold...
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Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
Updating time : 18/04/2008 00:49 GMT

GBP/USD - 1.9905...Cable rallied abv 1.9807 (now sup) to 1.9925 y'day due to active cross buying in sterling on speculation that the BOE wud introduce measures next week to assist the troubled U.K. mortgage market, causing eur/gbp to plummet fm Wednesday's record high of 0.8098 to 0.7972 (after EU's Juncker warned against the euro's strength vs dlr).

Y'day's cross-inspired rise indicates recent decline fm 2.0399 has made a low earlier this week at 1.9600 n although further gain twds 1.9956 cannot be ruled out, as hourly oscillators are displaying o/bot readings, reckon 2.0000 (50% r of 2.0399-1.9600) wud cap upside today n yield retreat later (as traders may take profits ahead of the weekend). On the bigger picture, abv res at 2.0050 is needed to signal aforesaid fall fm 2.0399 has ended at 1.9600 n extend gain to 2.0094 (61.8% r of 2.0399-1.9600) n 2.0193 later this month.

We will refrain fm chasing cable's upmove here n stand aside for now.
Below 1.9845/48 (50% r of 1.9764-1.9925 n prev. minor res) wud signal temp. top is possibly made n yield retrace. to 1.9807 (prev. res) but 1.9764 shud hold...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:18

Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 21/04/2008 01:42 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0197...Dlr moved inside a range of 0.9925-1.0112 for most of last week b4 rising strongly on Friday in line with the greenback's rally esp vs
yen n euro (boosted by the 228-point rise in the DJI) n also due to active cross selling in chf on carry trade demand.

Friday's breach of 1.0250 (March 24) signals the corrective rise fm the record low at 0.9630 (March '08) has resumed n as long as 1.0094/1.0112 (prev.
res) holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for a retracement of MT down-trend to 1.0355/69 (res n 50% r of 1.1108-0.9630) n possibly 1.0455/90 (res n equality proj. of 0.9630-1.0250 fm 0.9870), however, 1.0614 (50% r of 1.1598-0.9630) shud limit gain n yield a strg retreat 'later'.

On the downside, below 1.0094/1.0112 wud signal a temporary top has been
formed instead n weakness to 1.0035/40 (38.2% r of 0.9630-1.0285 n Friday's
low) wud follow but a breach of 0.9925/40 sup area is needed to bring stronger retracement of entire upmove fm 0.9630 to 0.9870/80 (sup n 61.8% r of 0.9630-1.0285) b4 prospect of a rebound...
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Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 22/04/2008 23:45 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5985...Although euro fell initially at European opening y'day to 1.5835 on rumours (later denied) that a German bank was facing liquidity problems, the single currency then rallied to a fresh record high at 1.6020
on speculation that the ECB wud have to hike interest rates in order to combat inflation, however, price retreated in N.Y afternoon on profit taking n minor consolidation is seen in Asia initially.

Despite euro's retreat fm y'day's high at 1.6020, a firm break below 1.5948/57 (prev. res) is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed there n bring retracement to 1.5892/1.5902 (minor sup n 38.2% r of 1.5711-1.6020) n possibly twds 1.5866 (50% r of 1.5711-1.6020), however, y'day's low at 1.5835 shud contain weakness n yield rebound.

On the upside, abv 1.6020 wud extend MT uptrend to 1.6040/50 n then 1.6074 (50% proj. of 1.4440-1.5905 fm 1.5341) but anticipated o/bot readings on hourly oscillators shud prevent strg rise beyond 1.6100 n yield a much-needed correction later...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:19

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 25/04/2008 00:56 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0350...The pair rallied strongly in European morning session as release of a much weaker-than-expected German Ifo index gave recent dollar
bulls further ammunition to hammer the dollar bears n price rose to 1.0282 (just shy of last week's 1.0285 high) b4 rising strongly again in NY session as intra-day rally accelerated after penetrating 1.0285 n the greenback subsequent surged to 1.0385 b4 easing.

Yesterday's daily closing abv 1.0285 confirms the major correction fm 08' low at 0.9630 remains in progress n although no prominent daily indicators were
apparent at recent record low at 0.9630, present rise well abv the daily upper
bollinger band suggests further headway twd 1.0490 wud be seen, being quality proj. of the rise fm 0.9630-1.0250 measured fm 0.9870, however, a daily close abv there is needed to retain bullishness for 1.0614 (50% r of 1.1598-0.9630).

Today, as long as 1.0285 holds, gain to 1.0400/10 is likely, in view of this, we have exited previous short n will buy on dips as only below 1.0273 (NY low) wud signal top is made n risk stronger pullback to 1.0237, 1.0190/00...
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Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 27/04/2008 23:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 104.47...Although Friday's brief rise abv April's high of 104.66 confirms dlr's corrective upmove fm 08' low at 95.77 has resumed, price could't hold on to intra-day gain due to cross-buying in yen, causing the buck to fall sharply to 103.90 in NY session b4 staging a recovery.

Looking at the daily chart, dlr's aforesaid rise fm 95.77 is viewed as a correction of MT intermediate fall fm 114.66 (27 Dec 07), upside bias remains
for further headway to 105.22, being a natural 50% retracement, however, reckon 106.61 (38% r of the entire fall fm 07' top at 124.14 to 95.77) wud cap present gain n yield decline later next month. Therefore, whilst buying again on dips is cautiously favoured, profit shud be taken on next upmove. Below daily pivotal sup at 100.03 anytime wud signal correction is over.

Today, as price is currently trading abv both hourly emas, suggesting nr term upside bias remains but abv 104.95/00 is needed to extend gain to 105.22, however, bearish divergences on hourly oscillators shud cap dlr at 105.50/60.
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:20

Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 29/04/2008 00:08 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5657...Trading the single currency y'day proved to be 'tricky' as the choppy price action has whipped both intra-day & day traders. Although price fell fm European morning high of 1.5682 to 1.5614, euro later than staged another strg rebound to an intra-day high of 1.5894 b4 dropping sharply to 1.5596 in NY morning, however, lack of further follow through helped price to stage another bounce to 1.5662/64 in late NY session.

Looking at the hourly chart, as the price action fm Friday's low at 1.5555 looks 'corrective', suggesting once current choppy consolidation is over, the
decline fm last week's record high of 1.6020 shud resume, a subsequent breach of near term sup area at 1.5584/96 wud signal such move has taken place n euro shud head twd daily chart obj. at 1.5510, however, as the hourly oscillators wud display prominent bullish convergences on such a move, further steep fall is not envisaged n reckon 1.5462 (50% proj. of 1.6020-1.5555 measured fm 1.5694) wud contain weakness. On the upside, abv 1.5694 wud risk marginal gain n only break of 1.5773 wud risk stronger retracement of aforesaid decline twd 1.5830/40...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 30/04/2008 00:52 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0380... Although price fell sharply fm y'day's high at 1.0400 in tandem with dlr's broad-based strg retreat in NY morning, as renewed buying at 1.0316 has lifted the greenback, suggesting as long as this intra-day sup holds, recent upmove is expected to resume, a rise abv 1.0400 wud confirm this nr term bullish scenario n yield a re-test of last week's high at 1.0431. Having said that, as the hourly oscillators' readings wud be displaying prominent 'bearish divergences' on such a move, further strg gain is therefore not envisaged n reckon upside wud falter well below 1.0490, being an equality proj. of the major rise fm 08' low at 0.9630 to 1.0250 measured fm 0.9870 n risk is seen for a strg retracement of recent upmove later this week.

In view of abv analysis, so whilst buying dlr on dips is favoured for a resumption of upmove, profit must be taken on subsequent rise. On the downside, in the event price fails to re-test 1.0431 n drops below 1.0299, then risk is seen for a correction of the early rise fm 0.9997, yield decline to 1.0265 but reckon 1.0214 (50% r) wud contain weakness n bring choppy consolidation...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:21

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 02/05/2008 00:46 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0481...Dlr rallied to 1.0509 (highest since Feb 29) y'day in line with the greenback's rise across the board (speculation that the Fed wud end its current series of interest rate cuts spurred the Dow to close points higher) n also cross selling in chf b4 retreating in N.Y. on profit taking.

Y'day's rally confirms the upmove fm March '08 record low at 0.9630 to retrace MT downtrend has resumed n further gain twds 1.0567 (61.8% proj. of 0.9997-1.0431 measured fm 1.0299) is envisaged, however, the o/bot readings on hourly stochastics (now at 85) shud cap upside below 1.0614 (50% r of 1.1598-0.9630) n risk has increased for a retreat later (readers shud be aware of the release of the closely-watched U.S. jobs report at 12:30GMT.

Therefore, buying dlr on dips is favoured but readers shud take profit on next rise. Below 1.0400 (prev. res n 61.8% r of 1.0333-1.0509) wud signal a temporary top has been formed instead n risk correction to 1.0360/65 but sup at 1.0330/36 shud limit downside n yield rebound next week...

*** T.G.I.F. ***
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Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 04/05/2008 23:20 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.35...The greenback finally pierced through indicated strg res area at 104.90/105.00 (now sup) on Friday n price surged to 105.70 after release of stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data b4 easing.

The previous daily close abv 105.00 confirms the major decline fm 2007 top at 124.14 has indeed ended earlier in Mar at 95.77 n a correction of this move is in progress where a min. 38.2% r of this move wud subsequently push dlr to 106.61, however, as daily oscillators' readings will be in o/bot territory on such rise, further strg gain abv there is not envisaged this week n reckon 107.30 (equality measurement of 100.03-104.66 projected fm 102.67) wud cap upside n yield a strg retreat. On the downside, only a break of daily pivotal chart sup at 102.67 (Apr 22) wud indicate top is in place.

Today, dlr is expected to move sideways initially in Asia (Japanese markets are closed today & tom for Golden Week holiday) b4 extending Friday's upmove to 105.90/00, however, as 15 min. oscillators' reading wud display bearish divergences on next rise, reckon 106.20/25 wud hold n yield decline later...
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-23 10:22

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 06/05/2008 00:27 GMT

USD/CHF - 1.0518...Despite y'day's brief cross-inspired rise to 1.0597 following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. ISM non-manufacturing)
data, price swiftly retreated fm there in tandem with the greenback's intra-day broad-based weakness after failing to penetrate previous res at 1.0610 (last Friday's post non-farm payrolls high).

Y'day's retreat suggests recent upmove has formed a temporary top at 1.0610 on Friday n consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for correction to 1.0455/65 (50% r of 1.0299-1.0610 n sup) n possibly twds 1.0418 (61.8% r of 1.0299 -1.0610), however, anticipated o/sold readings on hourly stochastics shud keep price abv 1.0389 (50% r of 0.9997-1.0610) n yield a rebound later (readers can use such fall as a buying opportunity as per our weekly recommedation).

On the upside, abv 1.0597/1.0610 wud signal the rise fm March '08 record low at 0.9630 to retrace MT downtrend has resumed n further headway to 1.0650 n then 1.0729 (prev. sup on daily chart) wud follow. We will stand aside for now but readers shud keep an eye out for any special daily update...
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Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
Updating time : 09/05/2008 00:40 GMT

GBP/USD - 1.9556 ... Despite initial re-test of previous day's low at 1.9503, cable managed to stage a strg bounce to 1.9614 after the Bank of England kept interest rate unchanged at 5.0% as expected, price later yield another
rise fm 1.9524 to 1.9623 in NY due to intra-day dollar's broad-based weakness.

Current price action suggests another day of choppy consolidation wud be seen, however, as long as 1.9623/35 (y'day's high n previous sup, now res) holds, recent erratic decline fm this year's high at 2.0399 shud resume for re-test of said sup, below wud extend weakness to 1.9456 (62% proj. of 1.9774-1.9503 measured fm 1.9623) but loss of downward momentum shud keep price abv 1.9409 (1.236 extension of 2.0029-1.9624 fm 1.9910) today. Looking at the bigger picture, the major fall fm 2.1162 top (Nov 07') is expected to resume n bring a re-test of 1.9337 low (Jan 08) later this month.

On the upside, in the event price continues to trade abv said near term good sup at 1.0503 n penetrates indicated res area at 1.9623/35, then risk wud shift to upside for a stronger retrace. of the fall fm 1.9910 to 1.9700/10...
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