一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 23rd January 200801 23rd, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.4633

Resistance:	1.4661	1.4683	1.4712	1.4742
Support:	1.4625	1.4595	1.4555	1.4524

Bias:

We are in mid-range thus work with breaks – max upside 1.4772-00 and downside 1.4486-1.4524

Daily Bullish:	How frustrating… Price dipped to 1.4364 before seeing the recovery I had been looking for. However, this does give us two scenarios to play with. The first would be a straight pullback that should stall close to the 1.4712 area but then send price lower. Thus we need a break above there to suggest follow-through to the favored 1.4742-72 resistance (maybe a little above.) If we see direct losses then look at the 1.4486-1.4524 area which, while the 1.4742-72 area is possible, should hold.
MT Bullish:	The dip to 1.4390 came in 3 waves and thus I suspect we’ll see this higher – watch 1.4590, 1.4666-96 while an eventual target should develop in the 1.4770-00 area. This should see a move back lower in range. (22nd January)
Daily Bearish:	Loss of the 1.4385-90 area annoyed and with two possible scenarios, one calling for continued sideways ranging and the other suggesting after this correction we see direct losses below 1.4309 we need to be aware of the downside risk (though I feel it’s a bit too early.) There is resistance around 1.4712 and if this holds and we see a break below 1.4486-1.4524 followed by 1.4439 I would expect a retest of 1.4309. In the meantime First watch the 1.4625 support and then 1.4595-00 – loss would take us lower.
MT Bearish:	The downside has been much stronger than anticipated but only breach of 1.4385 would threaten the 1.4309 low and then again this needs to break to suggest follow-through to 1.4182 and possibly 1.4134. (22nd January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 22nd January 2008 … USDCHF01 22nd, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.1090

Resistance:	1.1135	1.1155	1.1190	1.1225
Support:	1.1077	1.1055	1.1020	1.0998

Bias:

While 1.1120-35 caps I feel the downside should now resume for 1.0944 and below

Daily Bullish:	Price recycled higher and while the 1.1090 peak was broken we have not yet seen breach of the key 1.1135 resistance. Indeed, before I turn to bullish I need this to break. If seen look for an immediate move to the 1.1190-1.1225 resistance area which should cause a pullback. Only breach extends further to 1.1298-04 and possibly 1.1357.
MT Bullish:	The upside is not looking positive at all. Only a break back above 1.1038 would imply recovery to 1.1100-42. Break will be needed there to extend the gains. (16th January)
Daily Bearish:	The 1.1135 resistance remains intact and while it does so – which I think will be the case – I still see there being a risk for one last move lower. To confirm reversal lower we require a break back below 1.1055-77 and once seen expect the downside to become a little easier. There does seem to be risk of support at 1.0998 causing a pullback so be careful there. Below keeps the downside on track for 1.0944 and probably the 1.0883 area en route the 1.0806-36 area again.
MT Bearish:	Losses are developing and momentum still looks weak as we retest the 1.0883 low. Watch for the next supports at 1.0806-36 and 1.0749. Below extends more aggressively to 1.0614 at least. (15th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 18th January 2008 … USDCAD01 18th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.0287

Resistance:	1.0319	1.0350	1.0400	1.0435
Support:	1.0280	1.0259	1.0235	1.0205

Bias:

Mixed – waiting for breaks though still favor one more high to around 1.0319 or 1.0363

Daily Bullish:	The 1.0170-05 area held the pullback lower yesterday and allowed the upside to resume to reach 1.0307. I feel we are now close to a peak and larger reversal. While 1.0280 supports the risk still remains higher to 1.0319 minimum. Take care there as this could force a reversal. However, there is still a higher potential target at 1.0350-63 which I suspect is the highest we should see.
MT Bullish:	The breach of 1.0247 should extend the upside to 1.0319 minimum and probably 1.0363 but from here we must be aware of the risk of reversal lower. Further resistance is at 1.0435. (18th January)
Daily Bearish:	The 4-hour chart continues to show a bearish divergence while the hourly does seem at risk of developing. There is resistance at 1.0319 and if this holds and is followed by a break back below 1.0280 and 1.0258 it should cause losses down to the 1.0205-10 area which should hold on first test. This is where a channel support line rests. Thus below 1.0200 is more bearish for 1.0124 initially.
MT Bearish:	The 1.0319 and 1.0363 levels hold the greatest risk of forcing a correction lower. Below the 1.0205-10 channel support should see losses to the start at 0.9960 and later to the 0.9755 low again. (18th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

GFT Forex« Previous Entries
Next Entries »

Pro Commentary Lite … 17th January 2008 … USDJPY01 17th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            107.04

Resistance:	107.45	107.67	107.91	108.30
Support:	106.90	106.50	106.22	105.90

Bias:

We have to be cautious about the extent of the recovery but I suspect a decline to 105.60 & 104.95

Daily Bullish:	Losses moved below 106.22 but stalled at the 105.90 support from where we saw a stronger recovery. I still feel there is risk of one more low but in the mean time we have to be a little careful in case we see an extended sideways consolidation. We have bounced from first support at 106.90 and if we are to see any earlier gains again we need a break back above 107.45 and then 107.67. If seen it will raise the risk of a move back above yesterday’s 107.91 corrective high. Stronger resistance is at 108.30-50.
MT Bullish:	Momentum is looking a little bearish and thus only a move above 108.53-80 then 109.21 would provide any relief for 110.11 again.  (15th January)
Daily Bearish:	Below the 106.22 support price found a base at the 105.93 minimum target. I tend to feel that we should see one more dip but whether this happens directly or following a second attempt higher is not clear. To see immediate losses we shall need a dip below this morning’s 106.90 low which would then cause further slippage to 106.45-55 with breach there suggesting a test of 105.90 again. Below there are two targets – at 105.60 and then right down at 104.95. This risks sizeable correction from there.
MT Bearish:	We have seen 106.57 so far and I suspect 106.22 is possible before a correction. Only below highlights direct risk to 105.60 and 104.95 but this should cause a larger pullback. (16th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 16th January 2008 … EURJPY01 16th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                             158.04

Resistance:	158.25	158.56	158.70	159.09
Support:	157.55	157.28	156.93	156.28

Bias:

Take care at 157.28-55 – only below sees further aggressive losses to 155.80 and 155.27

Daily Bullish:	As warned we have seen stronger losses that have reached the 157.55-80 area. There is no bullish divergence but we cannot rule out a correction. For this to develop we shall need to see the 157.28-55 area support. A move back above 158.56-70 would provide some relief. If seen then we should see the upside move through to 159.09 and probably 159.38. However, for now I think this would be the most we see. Next resistance is at 159.97.
MT Bullish:	Yesterday’s losses don’t really give much hope for the upside. Thus only back above 159.40 would provide stronger relief for 159.97 and 160.51.  (16th January)
Daily Bearish:	Breach of 160.34 was seen directly as suggested and losses then duly moved to the 157.55-83 area. Momentum does still look bearish though we cannot rule out a correction at this point. Thus take the next leg lower a little more carefully. We need breach of 157.28-55 to trigger what should be a strong decline once again. This would move below 156.93 and down to 156.28 en route 155.80 minimum and at most 155.27.
MT Bearish:	The first leg lower to 157.55-83 has already been seen and if we see breach of 157.28 we could see additional losses to 155.27. By this point we should be requiring a correction. (16th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 15th January 2008 … EURUSD01 15th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.4875

Resistance:	1.4880	1.4913	1.4937	1.4966
Support:	1.4850	1.4815	1.4785	1.4760

Bias:

Momentum looks strong and appears to suggest follow-through to 1.4966-74

Daily Bullish:	Breach of the 1.4823 high indeed provoked follow-through to the 1.4913 perfectly from where we have seen a correction. I suspect that since momentum looks quite firm that we should see additional gains today. Watch support at 1.4850 and then 1.4810-20. While these remain intact the risk still appears to be higher for 1.4966-74 – but take are as this should cause a small pullback. Next resistance is then found at 1.5016-31.
MT Bullish:	We have seen price reach 1.4913 with momentum favoring breach for 1.4966-74 at least. We should also beware of the old daily support line which is now just around 1.5100-20. (15th January)
Daily Bearish:	The 1.4913 target was reached without causing a bearish divergence and thus we need to be careful about expecting too much in the way of weakness. Back below the 1.4810-20 pivot area would appear to suggest additional losses. If seen then look for the downside to progress towards 1.4730-60 and if this breaks then to 1.4638.
MT Bearish:	Yesterday’s move higher may have more bullish implications with the only risk being that we are seeing a large flat correction. Only now below 1.4730-60 would undermine the structure for 1.4550-80 initially. (15th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commnetary Lite … 14th January 2008 … USDCHF01 14th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.0993

Resistance:	1.1005	1.1055	1.1080	1.1107
Support:	1.0975	1.0939	1.0921	1.0883

Bias:

While 1.0975 holds the upside can re-develop else loss signals a move to the 1.0883 low

Daily Bullish:	We saw losses as expected and these stalled perfectly at 1.0975. Now, this really does need to hold to retain a possible bullish move. To raise the chance we shall need a move above 1.1005 and then 1.1055. If seen then we should see a move through to 1.1107. Take care as this could cause a correction. Next major resistance is at 1.1170-90.
MT Bullish:	Loss of 1.1018 breaks down the triangle scenario but should 1.0975 hold there is still potential for gains. We shall need a break above 1.1172 & then 1.1225 to provide a stronger thrust for 1.1299-1.1346. (11th January)
Daily Bearish:	The 1.0975 target held perfectly. There is also a small projection at 1.0939. Only below 1.0939 extends to the 1.0862-83 area which I feel would hold. Next major support is at 1.0806 and 1.0749.
MT Bearish:	I am beginning to consider the possibility of a stronger decline over the next 2-3 months at least. I don’t think this will occur directly - only below the 1.0836-83 would bring this eventuality closer. (4th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 11th January 2008 … GBPUSD01 11th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.9621

Resistance:	1.9336	1.9666	1.9700	1.9740
Support:	1.9590	1.9552	1.9524	1.9505

Bias:

While 1.9636-66 caps I remain bearish for losses to 1.9479 before a correction

Daily Bullish:	The 1.9542-52 area basically held with just a few points slippage and this caused a move back to the 1.9657-89 area advised. This should be the most we see and thus only a break above 1.9633-36 and then yesterday’s 1.9666 high would turn the picture more bullish and trigger gains through 1.9695-00 and probably all the way to 1.9772 at least – possibly 1.9820. However, in this area take care as I’d expect a move back lower then.
MT Bullish:	The downside is progressing well but we should see a decent correction from around the 1.9406-12 area. Note the daily bullish divergence. The correction should find it tough to break above 2.00-2.01. (11th January)
Daily Bearish:	With the 1.9657-89 area holding the correction from the 1.9542-52 area I suspect we should now see the final decline to 1.9479. Initially we may well see continued sideways consolidation between 1.9558 -1.9636 but once this breaks lower we should see losses to the 1.9479 intermediate target which should then cause a further correction. Only below 1.9470 would suggest a direct attack on the 1.9406-10 area before the larger correction.
MT Bearish:	The downside should continue to develop to 1.9479 and after a correction to the 1.9406 area which should generate a more sizeable correction. Further out we should see a move towards 1.87 approx. (10th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 10th January 2008 … AUDUSD01 10th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            0.8843

Resistance:	0.8858	0.8873	0.8912	0.8940
Support:	0.8820	0.8795	0.8770	0.8749

Bias:

I cautiously favor the upside but we need a break of 0.8858 to confirm strength to 0.8912 at least

Daily Bullish:	The correction lower seemed to be truncated yesterday and we have seen a 5 point break of the old high. Hourly momentum is a little weak but 4-hour seems a bit stronger. Thus I’ll cautiously favor continued gains but we’ll need to see the 0.8820 area to hold to see this occur directly. Breach of 0.8820 would imply a retest at 0.8770 before higher. A break then above 0.8853-58 should maintain the upward direction for 0.8873 and probably 0.8912. Take care as there could be a pullback. Next resistance = 0.8983.
MT Bullish:	Higher support held and we have seen the move back to the 0.8853 high. It should move further and while 0.8645-67 continues to hold the next target should be 0.8983 minimum & possibly as high as 0.9075-98. (9th January)
Daily Bearish:	A break of 0.8853 was seen but was hardly successful. On the whole I remain bullish but we should be aware of the risk of a further correction lower. First support is at 0.8820 and if this breaks then we could see a dip down to 0.8770. I think this will hold if seen. Only breach would extend the decline down to 0.8700 and possibly 0.8654-82.
MT Bearish:	The upside still looks more likely and therefore only a break below 0.8645 would undermine the bullish structure and cause a retest of the 0.8552 low. (9th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 9th January 2008 … USDCAD01 9th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.0038

Resistance:	1.0083	1.0111	1.0131	1.0175
Support:	1.0019	0.9990	0.9964	0.9940

Bias:

There is still a risk of seeing 1.0131 before the downside resumes – below 0.9964 suggests losses

Daily Bullish:	The dip below 0.9993-98 stalled around the next support at 0.9964 and has forced a further move higher. This still highlights the risk of additional gains being seen towards the 1.0131-39 area. For this I’d prefer if the 1.0019 area remains supporting and we see a move through 1.0078-83 which should then prompt extension to 1.0011 and probably the 1.0131-39 area which I suspect should cap. Only above extends to 1.0175-86 and then 1.0226-47.
MT Bullish:	Gains have reached 1.0045 this morning and we need beware of the risk of gains all the way to 1.0131. However, for the moment I think this should cap. Only above 1.0140 threatens 1.0247 again.  (7th January)
Daily Bearish:	Loss of 0.9993 stalled just 3 points below the 0.9967 support. I am still medium term bearish but also feel there is a strong argument for an initial recovery to 1.0131. Thus only below 1.0019 would bring the downside more into focus again. If breach is seen then look for losses back to 0.9964 with loss there signaling stronger losses. Next support is at 0.9905 – then 0.9840.
MT Bearish:	I still basically prefer a more bearish stance but must allow for a recovery to 1.0131. While this holds I’ll still look for losses back to the 0.9755 low and probably lower. (7th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 7th January 2008 … GBPUSD01 7th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                             1.9682

Resistance:	1.9710	1.9745	1.9798	1.9827
Support:	1.9672	1.7649	1.9619	1.9589

Bias:

Loss of 1.9672 will trigger follow-through to 1.9619 and possibly as far as 1.9505-24

Daily Bullish:	Losses stalled at 1.9672 and after a correction to 1.9849 we are once again approaching the 1.9672 low. I am very cautious about expecting any gains here. Only if the 1.9649-72 area holds and we see a reversal back above 1.9710 and then 1.9745 would I begin to feel more comfortable with the upside. If seen then look for extension to 1.9818-27. Take care there as this could hold within a small sideways correction. Above extends to 1.9849 again and 1.9886.
MT Bullish:	I find the structure a little less clear here. Thus only above 2.0100 again would provide further gains for 2.0195-2.0225 and possibly as high as 2.0292. (2nd January)
Daily Bearish:	The 1.9649-60 are has been approached and has repulsed the initial attempt lower. We are seeing this test again as I write and I have a greater bias towards seeing this break. If seen then watch for losses to reach 1.9619 at least. There is a small risk of reversal from here though I still tend to prefer continued losses to 1.9589 minimum and quite possibly the 1.9505-24 support.
MT Bearish:	The downside is being pushed towards the daily corrective low at 1.9649 and if this breaks then we can expect stronger losses. There is minor support at 1.95889, moderate at 1.9505-24 and then 1.9406. (7th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 4th January 2008 … USDJPY01 4th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            108.94

Resistance:	109.10	109.35	109.74	110.26
Support:	108.77	108.57	108.22	107.88

Bias:

Cautiously, while 108.22-57 supports I feel we should see gains above 109.74 for 111.43

Daily Bullish:	Loss of 109.20 has seen additional losses down to 108.22 with a bullish divergence developing. While I can’t really come up with a good wave relationship to suggest that 108.22 was an intermediate low it does look like a spike bottom and has produced potential for an inverse head & shoulders. Thus if we see a move back above 109.10 and then 109.74 look for a stronger rally through to 110.25 at least. However, above here will be required to maintain the upward momentum for 110.80 & 111.43.
MT Bullish:	I am less certain of the upside now and while a recovery to 111.43 is possible break here and at 112.20 will be needed to suggest a possibility of seeing 114.65 again. (4th January)
Daily Bearish:	Losses stalled just above the 108.15 support. I have to be cautious given the possible spike bottom but without particularly strong Fibonacci relationships in the 108.22 low we must be aware of the risk of additional losses. Below 108.57 will pressure the 108.22 low and extends losses to 107.88 minimum and quite possibly the 107.21-52 area which I feel would hold if seen.
MT Bearish:	I need to recheck the cycles but there does seem downside potential through to March. If this is the case I suspect we could see a retest close to the 100-102 area. However, this shouldn’t occur directly. (4th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

Pro Commentary Lite … 3rd January 2008 … USDCHF01 3rd, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price:                            1.1184

Resistance:	1.1203	1.1225	1.1247	1.1270
Support:	1.1160	1.1147	1.1121	1.1080

Bias:

While yesterday’s low holds there seems more risk of gains

Daily Bullish:	The 1.1225 low gave way and we saw losses to just a few points below the 1.1153 corrective low. This is normally a type of corrective low that causes a deeper pullback. Thus, while yesterday’s low at 1.1147 holds there does seem a good chance we shall see a return higher. A break above 1.1203 will assist while above the 1.1225 pivot (which may hold on first test) would trigger a stronger move higher to 1.1247-60 at least. Any further will require breach of 1.1270 which would extend to 1.1346-71.
MT Bullish:	The initial move higher is done at 1.1594 and thus we need be patient for buying opportunities although I don’t see sustained upside until late January at the earliest. Above 1.1594 sees 1.1684 first. (2nd January)
Daily Bearish:	The 1.1147-53 area is moderately important and breach will be required to trigger stronger losses. While there is a downside risk the 1.1247-70 area needs to cap. Any subsequent (or earlier) breach of 1.1147 would extend losses to 1.1121 and more likely to the 1.1051-80 area. Take care there and watch for development of a bullish divergence in the hourly chart to match that of the 4-hour chart. Next support is not then found until 109.75.
MT Bearish:	Having seen a peak at 1.1596 it looks like we’ll see a period of consolidation with the larger risk being lower towards the end of the month. Watch 1.1153 and below there at 1.1051 and 1.0975. (2nd January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

hefeiddd

USD/CAD, EUR/JPY - Yeah, Still Trending
Everywhere I look, I keep seeing articles and posts that suggest and even outright predict trend reversals in USD/CAD and other currency pairs. Well, guess what? Today, we have a new 30-year low in USD/CAD and a new 15-year high in EUR/JPY. The lesson is clear - although it is a natural human tendency to try to pick tops and bottoms, it is ultimately a loser's game to fight against the trend. It seems simple enough, but show me a trend, and I'll guarantee you that somewhere, someone is betting on a reversal. Avoid this tendency and you'll be miles ahead of most traders. Click below for the chart of USD/CAD

http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...1&d=1183981699
Attached Images

hefeiddd

USD/CAD Short @1.0585
USD/CAD is in a long term downtrend, and it has found some resistance on the hourly chart on the 1.0600 figure. Also showing overbought on the hourly RSI. Shorting here with a stop above the recent highs.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hammer of the Gods?
The Japanese Yen has become extremely volatile overnight, due to a variety of factors.

1) Risk Aversion. Moody's Investors Service cut ratings on $5.2 billion of bonds backed by U.S. subprime mortgages, and S&P announced that it may downgrade $12 billion worth of subprime sludge. If hedge funds and other investors are forced to meet margin calls, they will liquidate their profitable carry trade positions.

2) Bank of Japan. The BoJ will announce its decision on interest rates this evening. While no change is expected, we may hear hawkish comments from BoJ officials, who are expected to raise rates in August.

All of this volatility has created some wicked looking potential hammers (potential because we never assume that we know how an open candle will close!), like the one on the daily GBP/JPY
Attached Images





USD/CAD Resistance - Fibonacci, Moving Average
An addendum to the previous post, a glance at the daily chart reveals that the rally hit resistance at the 20-day moving average (about 1.0615) before slipping back below the 1.0600 figure. We also have a 50% Fibonacci resistance point near 1.0600, so the stop has a good degree of protection. This doesn't guarantee success, put it doesn't hurt, either.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

USD/CAD - Managing The Trade
Hey Everybody,

I hope you're all having a great day and enjoying our live trade on USD/CAD. Now that we have a nice little profit of about 40 pips, it's time to move the stop. I'm going to lower the protective stop to 1.0585, which was also the entry point. At the same time I'm going to close 1/3 of my position. This means that we'll have a nice little gain on 1/3 of the trade, and at worst a break-even scenario on the other 2/3 of the trade. Hopefully this puppy will keep on running, and we can take additional profits and lower the stop further.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Total profit = 117 pips (So Far)
Continuing coverage of our live trade. A big move in USD/CAD on the heels of the Trade Balance figures for the U.S. and for Canada. We are going to take additional profits here at 1.0508, and move the stop down to 1.0545.

We entered yesterday at 1.0585 (see previous posts) We now have:

1/3 = profit of 40 pips
1/3 = profit of 77 pips
Total profit = 117 pips (So Far)
1/3 = still open

Our target for the final 1/3 of the trade is 1.0465. So, well either gain 40 pips if the stop is hit at 1.0545, or 120 pips if the exit is reached at 1.0465.

Comments? Questions? Is anybody out there?
Attached Images






Total Profit = 237 pips - Trade Closed
We have finally closed our live trade with a total profit of 237 pips. Final exit was 1.0465, duration was approximately 30 hours. I sure wish that it were always this easy!

We entered yesterday at 1.0585 (see previous posts) We now have:

1/3 = profit of 40 pips
1/3 = profit of 77 pips
1/3 = profit of 120 pips

Total Profit = 237 pips

Feel free to hit me up with comments and questions. info@fxeducator.com is my email address

Thanks,

Ed Ponsi
Attached Images

hefeiddd

EUR/JPY Ascending Triangle
The EUR/JPY pair appears to be consolidating after another ferocious leg higher, and that consolidation is taking the form of an ascending triangle. I'm impressed by the fact that the triangle harmonizes with the overall trend, as the pair has been trending higher for over two years now. Bears have been defending the area just under 169.00, for a week or so, and I've got to believe there are stops above the figure. A break above that level could unleash a torrent of short covering.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

EUR/JPY Falling With DJIA, S&P 500
It's no coincidence that the reversal in US stocks - which opened nicely higher and traded well through most of the day - has also led to a reversal in EUR/JPY. I consider the US stock market to be the current barometer of risk, and when risk aversion rears its head, investments that had performed well tend to suffer. Few trades have performed as well as the Carry Trades over the past five months. Here on the 15 minute chart, we see EUR/JPY reversing in sync with US stocks.
Attached Images