一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

USD/JPY 60 minute
Bullish Gartley
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Eurusd
Bearish Butterfly
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hefeiddd

EURGBP 240 minute
Bearish Butterfly
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AUDUSD 60 minute chart
Bullish Butterfly

I should have been adding the Fib extensions on these patterns...
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Gbp/aud
Using the November high as a base for the fib tool........... price today is approaching the .382. Until it breaks that level with some gusto, I would consider the downtrend to still be in place....

We still have lower highs and lower lows on the long trend, the current up move, to me, would be a retracement..... and would not be a change in trend until we see a higher low.

Perhaps others have opinions to share.

I am attaching a weekly chart showing some fib clusters
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hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
I have a Bullish Pattern on 60 minute and also 240 minute.....

To my way of thinking, short entries should be watched very carefully...

and perhaps we can start to anticipate a change in trend starting, although premature at this time.

On the 240 minute chart.. the price hit resistance at a fib cluster, one of the ratios being 1.618 and , to me, that ratio is significant..

Perhaps someone has some insights as to what we can expect from this situation.......
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hefeiddd

Gbp/jpy
I am posting an update to the Butterfly formation on the one hour chart from yesterday.

Easy to see the substantial bullish move....
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AUDUSD 240 minute
Bullish Butterfly
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hefeiddd

AUDUSD 640 volume
overlapping Butterflies
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hefeiddd

Usdchf
I should have posted this one...... missed it.....
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Audusd
Fibonacci circles
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Update on AudUsd
Once the price met the 1.618 fib, it reversed in fine style.....
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hefeiddd

Butterflies
These are worth paying attention to

Last night we had a bearish one and price travelled a good distance...

The bullish one is just formed a few minutes ago.....

Fibonacci ratios are so very important.!
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EURUSD 60 minute chart
Bearish Butterfly
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Butterflies are good....!!
This was an excellent pattern..!!!!
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-20 00:26 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

EURUSD monthly
There is some divergence appearing and although this butterfly does not have perfect ratios, there is some signs that the bull run may be starting to peak..

Sometimes these patterns show up and then are extended so this may be premature..
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AUDUSD 240 minute
Bullish Pattern
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hefeiddd

Kiwi Dollar bouncing North
NZD/USD know by traders as the Kiwi dollar fresh weekly highs ending the decline from the 8217 February 27th high to the March 10th low of 7874.

The March 11th coordinated central bank intervention drove prices higher reversing the decline at the 7898 38.2% retracement.

Traders have to ask themselves if Fibonacci predicted central bank intervention, or do central banks look at Fibonacci levels or if it is all coincidence.

There is downward Fibonacci resistance at the .8087 61.8% level of the down swing starting at .8217 down to .7876. Resistance can also be found at the .8145 78.6% Fib level of that same swing.

Clearing those two significant levels of resistance will open up the Feb. 27th high of .8218 and the 127% extension target of .8446

See the attached chart:

To learn more about using Fibonacci and other Advanced trading techniques, go to http://www.fxcm.com/fxcourse-portal.jsp and enroll now. Invest in your trading knowledge
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hefeiddd

USD/CHF Resumes Descent
Shooting Star at 61.8% Fibo Resistance marks end of the Counter-trend Intervention rally in the USD/CHF.

Traders and banks have determined that the $200 Billion infusion is not enough.

Look for lower levels until the market gets what it wants--lower interest rates.
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hefeiddd

KIWI continues upward climb
A break above the February 27th .8215 high would possibly open up .8446 and higher.

A close above the .8144 78% down swing resistance would solidify the argument for higher rates moving forward.

New Zealand core retail sales surprised to the upside coming in at .3% instead of .1%.

This renewed fears of inflation and possible interest rate increase to keep it under control.
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hefeiddd

Overlapping Fibs on Loonie
Superimposing higher time frame Fibonacci lines on a daily or 4 hour chart can help a trader keep an eye on support and resistance without changing charts. The longer the time frame, the more reliable the indicator, trend line, or support and resistance line becomes.

Notice on the attached chart of the USD/CAD that I placed monthly Fibs in red, weekly fibs in blue and daily fibs in white.

Confluences of fib levels from different time frames indicate strong support or resistance.

For example the blue 50% weekly support fib level at .9955 corresponds to the .9954 daily resistance fib level in white.

Price had a hard time breaking that level. Price ended up breaking that level and then ran against the down trend channel resistance.

See the attached chart
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hefeiddd

GBP/USD looks to resume upward rise to 2.0397
The GBPUSD bounced off of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement after the FOMC cut interest rate 75 basis points to 2.25%.

This Daily Fibonacci support line was established 3 days ago using the February 20th swing low of 1.9361- 2.0397 March 14th swing high. This would have given a trader plenty of time to wait for confirmation by a reversal candle pattern on a 4 hour chart.

A conservative price target would be the old high of 2.0397. A close above that point would open up 2.0600

See the attached charts:
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hefeiddd

EUR/CAD Hits 261.8% Fibonacci Extension Target
EUR/CAD bounced from a low of 1.4409 to a high of 1.5076 only to pull back to a 61.8% retracement level located at 1.4665.

Buyers came in with a vengeance and pushed prices to the 127% extension target of 1.5260 and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension target. A doji and spinning top marked a pause in the upward march at this level until more buyers pushed prices all the way to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension where price stands currently.

In the attached chart, I have made the Fibonacci retracement white and the Fibonacci extension red to show you how a trader could use extension targets with the retraces that he/she currently use.
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hefeiddd

Ozzie Yen Hopping Higher
With the DOW up nearly 400 points on the day, risk aversion seems to have abated as carry trade currencies like the AUD/JPY have gained favor.

The rush to sell yen in favor of high yielding assets could continue for a few days to come.

If AUD/JPY gets above 92.58, we could see the 127% extension target hit at 93.79. I would expect gains to be capped at the 94.53 area which is where the 200 period moving average is located.

We could see prices sell off violently form the 93.87-94.53 area back down to retest the 88.000 area.

See the attached chart.

I welcome any comments or questions on this or other pairs you might be interested in discussing.


Happy Trading,

Gregory McLeod
FX Powercourse Instructor
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hefeiddd

Our AUD/JPY trade hit the 127% extension target. It ended the US Session with a long-legged doji. This indecision candle could open up further gains to the 161.8% extension target of 95.33.

See the attached chart:Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Audusd
this should be a valid pattern due to the ratios
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GBPUSD daily
Nice Butterfly on the daily chart to go along with your summary
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hefeiddd

Gbpaud
I use a bit more than Fibs, in fact my charts could be a bit cluttered for some people, lol

We will await Gregory's input...... see how he interprets the developments...
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AUDUSD daily
Looks like this has reached .382 and decided to continue the downtrend
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hefeiddd

Hi Vit

Glad to hear you liked the article.

Regarding USDCAD:

If you draw in the Fibs for the 01/22 - 02/28 decline, you will notice a smaller range setup within the larger one between the 61.8% Fib of the smaller move at 1.0125 and the overall range top at 1.0250. Looking for a close below that would give more confirmation for a downside move to the trend line at near 0.9880.

From a fundamental perspective, a range-bound scenario makes sense for USDCAD since the two countries' close trade relationship makes the economies dependent and gives a degree of symmetry to their business cycles.

Naturally, current volatility makes things very erratic, so caution is definitely warranted. That said, risk-reward seems to favor a short because your stop can be relatively tight while the pair is trading near the range high. Should the pair break out to the top, the loss would be relatively low compared to the possible gain from a move back into the channel.
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD - Bullish above 1.5700, Targeting 1.6000
EURUSD began last week range-bound between the highest close of the previous bullish run near 1.5730 and the 1.5900 double top. Markets reacted strongly to the marginally better ISM manufacturing survey, giving the Greenback impetus to rally and take the pair down to the upward-sloping trend line established in early February. Last Friday’s NFP report crushed the dollar bulls’ wishful thinking, and further downside failed to materialize. Current price action is very reminiscent of February’s orderly ascent along the trend line, with consistent bullish days separated by shallow bearish Hammer candlesticks. We continue to hold the view that EURUSD is set to test 1.6000.
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GBP/USD - Bearish against 2.00, Targeting 1.9860
We remained flat on sterling last week as we looked for the pair to show a confirmation of directional bias. The current picture looks decidedly bearish, with a downward-sloping resistance trend line capping recent upside retracements. The strongest support looks to be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 02/20-03/13 rally at 1.9758. Price action has repeatedly bounced higher from this level, working through preceding Fib levels at 2.0002 and 1.9880, setting a lower high and with every try. In the near term, we expect the pair to test this level again with a potential break targeting as low as 1.9360.
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