一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

eur/jpy
i think it might be time to go short on the eur/jpy again. on the daily chart it has failed to break through the 50% retracement and we have a horizontal trendline a bit above the 50% line and a down trendline. plus price just hit the 50ma in the same area and the rsi doesnt seem like it will be able to break its 60 line, which when you look in the past on the chart the 60 has acted as a good support/resistance line. we will have to see how the rest of the day goes but if the present candle closes as a long legged doji, i think we can expect a drop to the 78.6% retracement area minimum, so around 155.00.
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Looks like the USD/CAD is setting up for a fall. Price has been turned back from the 61.8% retracement of the swing from 1.0386 High to the 0.9871 Low.

Only a close above the 1.0276 Level (the 78.6% retracement) would open up 1.04 and above. This could also lead to a full blown trend reversal.

Learn more about using Fibonacci by enrolling now in the Intensive 8-Day Powercourse
http://www.fxcm.com/fxcourse-portal.jspAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Looks like we have some follow through. A close below the trend line would be added confirmation.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Thank you! Seems that dollar weakness is the theme of the week. CAD/JPY looks to be breaking out as well.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Please post a chart with a .707. I've posted a 88.9% example.

Here is a Daily chart of the GBP/USD. Price had a deep retrace exceeding the 78.6% retrace to the 88.9% level. This level was tested multiple times before Price moved higher.

Usually, early beginnings of a trend reversal have deep pull backs that can go as low as 100% of the initial wave 1 move.

We have a powerful close above a 10 day high breaking a multi-month down trend.

See the attached chart:Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Usd/cad
Bearish pattern using Fibonacci ratios
Attached Images






As I remember, that is a Gartley pattern. It is a powerful application of Fibonacci ratios.

Thank you for posting a great chart!

Price D is the point to sell (bearish Gartley pattern) as the price is about to decrease.

See the attached chart

Here is a pretty good site that has more information on them: http://www.harmonictrader.com/chart_examples.htm
Attached Images

hefeiddd

this one has a couple .707 ratios....
Attached Images






Update USD/CAD
A few posts prior to this one we saw this pattern... here is an update.
Attached Images





707 ratio
I added .707 to the Fib tool so we could see how prominent .707 is, probably the Gartley is clutter on the illustration. I left it there as the discussion started with that formation.

A great percentage of the bars in this chart end near the .707..

Perhaps you have another pair that we can 'operate ' on. lol

Suggestion.........?

I am adding another chart showing how price is bouncing from.707
Attached Images

hefeiddd

2.618
here is a great example of Fib lines showing resistance.
Attached Images






USD/CHF weekly...
This chart could be worth watching, price is so close to 2.618 at this time..

As the future for USD is looking grim we may get a surprise and see a nice move upwards....

Will be interesting to see what kind of accent Greg can put on this....
Attached Images

hefeiddd

gbp usd
looks like we have a double bottom on gbp. but neckline is near 38.2% fib line which appears to be holding its ground. rsi is near 70.
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

gbp usd 1hr
this is what he calls a slingshot pattern. 50, 20, and 10 ma are up because 10 and 20 are above 50. price is in a strong uptrend then starts to retrace a bit. in this case, you have each new high is lower than previous high. so you could buy when price goes above the previous low. if you look at 1.9705 on this chart on feb 26 you will see another slingshot pattern. price dipped down and then shoots upward. you need at least 4 bars. the first bar is the highest point and then you need at least 3 bars following with each high lower than previous high. you could be waiting for a trigger 10 bars later as long as each high is lower than previous high. stop loss is place just below low of entry bar and i usually go for move back to high. this is a simple and great trigger.. the great thing on this one is the bar went above previous bar but then dipped down so i got in at a lower price. i put my stop loss at 1.9837 and going for profits at 1.9930. sometimes i will use the 161.8% on external fibs for a price target because a lot of times it will get hit. for now, i want to be cautious until i feel more comfortable with my trading.
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Butterfly Pattern
here is basic info concerning butterfly pattern. butterfly pattern identifies significant reversal point against main trend. the example im showing is from eur/usd 1/31/08. 4 points to a butterfly. 1. retraces against main trend., 2. tries to reach point 1 but fails to do so, 3. tries to reach point 2 but again fails to do so, 4. moves up again breaking through resistance, in this case. point 3 should be around 61.8%-78.6% and the break out from point 4 should reach 127.2% - 161.8%

im not an expert in these patterns but this is what i know.
moe
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

usd jpy
here is a chart of the usd/jpy 1hr. you can see we are at the end of an AB=CD pattern. the daily chart has been showing divergence, on rsi period 10, that started in mid october. i think this is going to be a great time to get in and catch this reversal. also there is divergence on usd/chf on daily and hourly. just have to wait for the right time to buy. there is divergence on eur/usd 1 hr chart.
moe
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

usd/cad
on daily chart have AB=CD pattern and that matches up with 38.2%. usd/cad is bouncing between 38% and 61% fib lines.
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

.841 .707
I was going to post this chart to show the three consecutive measurements of 1.128,

And I have also highlighted .841.... also consecutive....

.841 is not all that common from what I have observed..... yet on this chart we can see it three times.... ( coincidence that I had this chart as you were posting).

.707 is on many, many charts, I think that .786 may be selected as the popular measure as it allows a little more distance for the target zone.

There is an equal low on this chart.

I think my interest in Fibs was sparked by your thread... or rekindled by your thread... I had not previously seen a thread devoted to Fibs specifically and guided by someone who uses them all the time...

NB Dollar index has fallen significantly since this chart drawn
Attached Images




Using AB = CD to locate turning points
I am going to attempt to locate turns with Fibonacci ratios... This is the first one I have worked with.... of course this example is an extreme, most of the turns should be at less than 161.8, I would think.

Probably I should be working with longer charts as that is what people seem to base their decisions on....
Attached Images

hefeiddd

This AB= CD is just about perfect......
Attached Images






some examples of fib resistance.

I think this tells why we should all have proficiency using the fib tool.....

there are many uses..... hopefully we can touch on each and learn a lot.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

GbpJpy
on this chart 1.618 seems to have a lot of presence as far as providing resistance to the decline and also the retracements from this level are attractive.

I am adding a second chart. different time frame..... showing more of the same
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Bearish Bat AB = CD
Again... 1.618 leads to a major move
Attached Images





US Dollar Index
Significant level achieved 1.618....

Perhaps this is a signal for reversal
Attached Images  





Audusd
On this chart you can see that price reversed at 1.618.. then reversed again at.618....... went up to .382 and then down to another .618

And each was a significant reversal......
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Fibonacci Circles
Price is right at a significant level on the circle. we will have to see if there is a retracement or reversal from here
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Two AB = CD examples
Attached Images

hefeiddd

two bearish patterns
Attached Images