Mike,
I'm quite bearish on that pair. Here is the monthly chart, showing a well formed triange. We know from Ellitt guidelines that triangle occurs in wave IV and the min target after a breakout is the begining of the triangle.
In our case that's the end of wave III or 79/80 area. We are 104.85 right now, so yes, you can say it's a big drop from here. But we need a confirmation first - a break of the - trendline.
I'd love to see some other counts as well. Good to see if I'm on the right track or way out http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gifAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11866&stc=1&d=1204262068
Wave-3 can NEVER be the shortest wave in a 5-wave sequence. Either your count on the impulsion is incorrect and you didn't adhere to the rule of neutrality and alternation, OR you're not in an impulsive series.
Anyways, Here's my chart on USDJPY. It'll probably be deleted before anyone sees it!..
AdrianAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11867&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204262258
Eur/Usd
Todays Update ( Daily Bars )
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http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11870&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204270350
Here is a Short-term Update http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Only a Probability! ......... Not Cast in Stone !
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http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11886&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204298539
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11887&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204298562
but here is what may be occurring ...............http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
( see chart below )
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http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11893&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204302951
Eur/Usd
WHERE' THE TOP ...........?http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/confused.gif
Where is the top of this thing ?
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Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11895&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204305068
Ray,
I think there's still room to go up as we don't have a complete five waves yet.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11897&stc=1&d=1204305472
It looks to me that the EURJPY has topped for good. Entering a iii of 3 now. This thing will be near 130 in a matter of months.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11882&stc=1&d=1204296111
Remember this post from last week Friday ?
Well, Well , Well --
Here were are today , We may now have our confirmation .Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11900&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204317313
Gbp/Usd
Wave-count ( 4hr Bars )
This is the wave-count that I am observing of the Gbp/Usd
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Only a Probability ! ................. Not Cast in Stone !
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Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11901&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204317695
Gbp/Usd
Hmmm ............. ?http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
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Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11907&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204332434
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GBP/USD Short Term Triangle
Here's a possible count I'm watching for the short term movement in GBP/USD. A contracting triangle may be forming for wave four.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11902&stc=1&d=1204318446
Are you guys dreaming? There is absolutely nothing pointing to a move higher. Set your targets at 1.97 and 1.96 for the first shorts and get ready for much lower to come.
Rad
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11904&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204322511
This pair is never going to see the highs again. Look out below as this is headed to 154 and then 152 on the next legs down. Get short on any bounces up as they will be very short lived.
Rad
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11903&stc=1&d=1204321661
Cable Triangle?
Heya Justy,
I was reading about triangles again last night and tried to fit the price action of the cable into one. I think I have a similar count to you now. No more overlapping 4ths grin. Although the B wave is a bit oblong. Have a great weekend.
John
http://i28.tinypic.com/35bs789.jpg
Gbpusd Monthly
I'll leave the shorter term up to the rest of you... Here's what I'm seeing at a glance from the monthly.... Only a possability....
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11909&stc=1&d=1204332915
Eurjpy Daily
Here's a look at EURJPY Daily... I think this looks pretty clear.... You can see the diagonal triangle that completed the 5 wave rally... (It is truncated) As for the near term action what I have labelled as the wave 1 followed by A then B and now in C, It could be a 1,2 and another 1,2 .. it's too early too tell... But the larger picture is clearer... We just have to get down to the shorter time frames for entry. I still believe this market is headed much higher over the long term. There has been no indication of anything to the contrary. I'm sure some novices in here will notice my wave 4 does overlap my wave 1, but this is allowed in a wave 1 position if it is a leading diagonal. Which I believe it is.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11911&stc=1&d=1204337540 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11912&stc=1&d=1204337547
Chfjpy
Here's an update to CHFJPY I posted a few days ago... Still heading upward, But I think we're do for a little correction before we continue.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11913&stc=1&d=1204338794
Hey there Justy...
Ya I think there's deffinately upside potential especially with the way this month has just closed leaving us with two hammer's right in the support zone ... Supprt is clearly shown on the monthly... For the life of me though, I just can't get the short term.. Glad you got it http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/wink.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11914&stc=1&d=1204339464
Usdjpy
Glad I stayed Short USDJPY... I'm roughly three hundred pips in the money with stops already protecting profits... I'll be riding this one for a while yet too...
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11915&stc=1&d=1204341033 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11916&stc=1&d=1204341042
Usd/chf
Hey guys,
While there is still plenty of downside potential for the USD in the near-term, the bottom may be just around the corner. The chart I have attached shows that price is in wave five. So maybe in the next few years we could see a turnaround.
What do you guys think?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11917&stc=1&d=1204341327