http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0723techs2.gif
Commentary:The EURUSD briefly traded above 1.3832 today, hitting 1.3843 before pulling back to the 1.3800 figure.Because the rally from 1.3752 is in 3 waves, the ascent is most likely wave b within a flat correction.Look for wave c to come under 1.3752.The bigger picture remains bullish but risk of a more severe pullback is also possible as daily RSI remains above 70.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0723techs3.gif
Commentary:The break under 120.97 indicates additional bearish potential.Intraday charts show a head and shoulders pattern forming from the beginning of June as well.The pattern is confirmed on a break below 120.75.The next level of support would be the 50% fibo of 115.14-124.13 at 119.64.This level is defended by the 5/11 low at 119.46.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0723techs4.gif
Commentary: With 5 waves up from 2.0056 and with Cable pressing against the resistance line drawn off of the 6/12 and 7/3 highs, the risk of a reversal is high.We are looking for a correction to breing price back to at least 2.0468 and possibly parallel channel support (near 2.0375 today but increases 30 pips/day).The structure is bullish as long as price is above 2.0203.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0723techs5.gif
Commentary:Given the strong rally from 1.1980, it is likely that the USDCHF is tracing out a more complex correction from the 7/18 low at 1.1960.A push through 1.2064 wouls satisfy minimum expectations so be wary of getting long on a break through that level.If 1.2064 gives way, then former support at 1.2091 becomes potential resistance.If a triangle is unfolding from the low at 1.1960, then the USDCHF will range between 1.1960 and 1.2064 before a break lower.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0723techs6.gif
Commentary:We wrote Friday that “an inverse head and shoulders pattern may be playing out in the short term as well.A rally through 1.0477 increases confidence in the bullish outlook.” Still, we can not identify a clean 5 wave rally from the low to signal with confidence that the trend has indeed changed from bearish to bullish.1.0400 remains key to the bullish case.
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 1.0400, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0723techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD has closed up 11 consecutive days (today would be the 12th), but the rally from .8707 is choppy (possible a diagonal), which warns that upside momentum is waning..8840 is a measured objective and the high this morning is at .8842.Risk of a reversal is high.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0723techs8.gif
Commentary: Kiwi continues to rocket higher and the next level of potential resistance is the 138.2% of .7463-.5928 at .8049.The 161.8% extensions of .7237-.7637/.7452 is at .8099 and is also potential resistance.Although Kiwi has extended, the form remains the same and we are looking for a 4th wave (within the 5 wave rally from .7237) to eventually unfold before a 5th wave makes a new high.The structure remains bullish.
Strategy:Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0720techs2.gif
Commentary:The high made on 7/18 at 1.3832 remains intact.As we focused on yesterday, the 3 wave rally from 1.3752-1.3830 suggests that 1.3752 will be broken.The decline unfoidng from 1.3830 is most likely either a wave 3 or a c wave.A short term bearish target is the 161.8% extension of 1.3832-1.3752/1.3830 at 1.3700.This is also a former 4th wave/congestion area from 7/10.The bearish alternate has a triangle unfolding from 1.3832.1.3832 is key to the short term bearish case.
Strategy:Remain bearish, against 1.3832, target 1 at 1.3700, target 2 TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0720techs3.gif
Commentary:The dominant pattern in the USDJPY remains the 3 wave decline from 124.13 to 120.97, which is why we have remained with the bullish count.As long as 120.97 remains intact, the structure in the USDJPY is bullish.Shorter term, the rally from 120.97 is an impulse and therefore likely wave 1 (or a) in a new 5 wave bullish sequence.A push above 122.61 gives scope to a test of 123.18, which is the 100% extension of 120.97-122.61/121.55.Longs should keep risk tight at this level but we expect a rally through 124.13 in the next few weeks.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 120.97, target a break above 124.13, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0720techs4.gif
Commentary: Cable has backed off following the spike through the resistance line drawn off of the 6/12 and 7/3 highs.The short term pattern that we favor remains similar to that of the EURUSD.We are treating the spike this morning to 2.0541 as the top of wave b (or ii).Therefore, we are looking for a decline in wave c (or iii) to just below 2.0459.This indicates a very short term bearish opportunity, but the trend remains bullish above 2.0365 (as the count shown today indicates).A new high (above 2.0547) would be wave iv within the rally from 2.0056 (which is larger wave 3) and give way to a larger correction.A break of 2.0364 indicates additional bearish potential (and potentially a significant reversal).
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0720techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “we maintain that the USDCHF is forming a low.Similar to the EURUSD (but the inverse), the USDCHF rally from 1.1960 is an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the near term trend has turned to the upside.Initial resistance is at 1.2068 (trendline resistance is at 1.2090 as well) but the ‘5 up’ from 1.2960 indicates additional bullish potential.”The pair hit 1.2064 this morning.Since the rally from the low is in 3 waves and at the cited resistance, we recommend that longs keep risk to 1.1982.Risk of a decline is high.
Strategy:Move to flat (previously bullish)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0720techs6.gif
Commentary:The USDCAD is little changed.“We have been looking for a bottom due to speculative positioning and the longer term wave structure, which has an ending diagonal unfolding from 1.4000.The rally from 1.0400 is impulsive, indicating that the trend has turned.A bullish bias is warranted against 1.0400.An inverse head and shoulders pattern may be playing out in the short term as well.A rally through 1.0477 increases confidence in the bullish outlook.”The decline from 1.0477 is in 3 waves and the 3rd leg of that decline is also in 3 waves, which bolsters the bullish bias.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.0400, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0720techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday “that an ending diagonal may be unfolding and that the potential for a turn is high”.The Aussie spiked to .8811 this morning and has backed off to below .8800 since.Risk is for a retrun to .8707, which was the origin of the diagonal.The larger 4th wave that are looking for may be beginning.This outlook has a correction unfolding for the next seversal weeks.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0720techs8.gif
Commentary: We are looking for a decline in a 4th wave towards the 7/11 low at .7714.Potential channel support is at .7770 today.Coming under .7882 indicates additional that wave 4 is underway.The confluence of psychological resistance (.8000) and the resistance line drawn off of the June and July highs should provide formidable resistance.The larger trend remains towards higher prices (as indicated on the chart) but we are looking for a pullback first.
Strategy:Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0719techs2.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that“the ‘5 down’ means that at least one more 5 wave decline is likely to occur.The correction from 1.3773 may extend higher, but should be contained by the 61.8% of 1.3832-1.3773 at 1.3809.An initial bearish target is 1.3700.The form of the decline will alert us to the bearish potential.”The bearish count remains on track as the rally from 1.3752 unfolded in a corrective 3 waves and 1.3832 remains intact.Coming under 1.3786 instills confidence in the bearish bias.
Strategy:Remain bearish, against 1.3832, target 1 at 1.3700, target 2 TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0719techs3.gif
Commentary:The dominant pattern in the USDJPY remains the 3 wave decline from 124.13 to 120.97.As long as 120.97 remains intact, the structure in the USDJPY is bullish.Shorter term, the rally from 120.97 is an impulse and therefore likely wave 1 (or a) in a new 5 wave bullish sequence.A push above 122.61 gives scope to a test of 123.18, which is the 100% extension of 120.97-122.61/121.55.Longs should keep risk tight at this level.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 120.97, target a break above 124.13, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0719techs4.gif
Commentary: After a brief spike through the resistance line drawn off of the 6/12, 6/20, 6/22, and 7/2 highs, Sterling has shown signs of reversing.The decline from 2.0547 may be just a 4th wave decline ina5 wave rally from 2.0261.Coming under 2.0402 would eliminate this bullish count and indicate additional bearish potential.Remember, the psychological backdrop, as indicated by the COT report, remains ripe for a top and reversal.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0719techs5.gif
Commentary:We maintain that the USDCHF is forming a low.Similar to the EURUSD (but the inverse), the USDCHF rally from 1.1960 is an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the near term trend has turned to the upside.Initial resistance is at 1.2068 (trendline resistance is at 1.2090 as well) but the ‘5 up’ from 1.2960 indicates additional bullish potential.
Strategy:Remain bullish, against 1.1960, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0719techs6.gif
Commentary:We have been looking for a bottom due to speculative positioning and the longer term wave structure, which has an ending diagonal unfolding from 1.4000.The rally from 1.0400 is impulsive, indicating that the trend has turned.A bullish bias is warranted against 1.0400.An inverse head and shoulders pattern may be playing out in the short term as well.A rally through 1.0477 increases confidence in the bullish outlook.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.0400, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0719techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that an ending diagonal may be unfolding but the potential for a turn is high, so we are moving to flat (previously bullish).The Aussie extended to .8808 this morning, which may have completed an ending diagonal from .8707.Coming under .8761 warrants a bearish bias for a return to at least .8707.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0719techs8.gif
Commentary: We are looking for a decline in a 4th wave towards the 7/11 low at .7714.Potential channel support is at .7758 today.Coming under .7907 indicates additional bearish potential in the near term.
Strategy:Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-18-07t2.gif
Commentary:Sometimes, looking at a very short term chart is helpful, especially when it is highly probable that the market is at a turning point.This is one of those times.It is obvious from the chart above that a 5 wave structure ended at 1.3832 and that there are 5 waves down from 1.3832 to 1.3773.The ‘5 down’ means that at least one more 5 wave decline is likely to occur.The correction from 1.3773 may extend higher, but should be contained by the 61.8% of 1.3832-1.3773 at 1.3809.An initial bearish target is 1.3700.The form of the decline will alert us to the bearish potential.
Strategy:Bearish on break of 1.3773, against 1.3832, target 1 at 1.3700, target 2 TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-18-07t3.gif
Commentary:There is no change regarding the near term outlook for the USDJPY. “The USDJPY rally from 120.97 is in 5 waves, which strongly indicates that the entire decline from 124.13 was an a-b-c correction.The decline from 122.61 is corrective so far and ended near the 61.8% of 120.97-122.61 at 121.60.120.97 must hold in order to keep the bullish structure intact.Ultimately, we are looking for a new high (above 124.13).”
Strategy: Bullish now, against 120.97, target a break above 124.13, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-18-07t4.gif
Commentary: The rally from 2.0261 is the 9th wave in the rally that began at 1.9621.As we have commented on here before, reversals occur following completions of 5 wave structures - or derivations of 5 wave structures - 9, 13, 17, etc.9 waves means that one of waves 1, 3 or 5 is extended.For trading purposes, it does not matter which one is extended but rather that the probability is high that a reversal will occur.There is no sign yet of a reversal but we are on the lookout for one.The clear ‘5 down’ in the EURUSD favors a turn in Cable.Daily RSI is at 81, which is the highest since December 2006 (GBPUSD reversed then at 1.9847).Coming under the trendline drawn off of the 7/10, 7/13, and 7/17 indicates additional bearish potential.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-18-07t5.gif
Commentary:We maintain that the USDCHF is forming a low.Similar to the EURUSD (but the inverse), the USDCHF rally from 1.1960 is an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the near term trend has turned to the upside.Initial resistance is at 1.2068 (trendline resistance is at 1.2090 as well) but the ‘5 up’ from 1.2960 indicates additional bullish potential.
Strategy:Bullish on break above 1.2026, against 1.1960, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-18-07t6.gif
Commentary:After testing the 1.0400 level this morning, the USDCAD has rocketed higher.We have been looking for a bottom due to speculative positioning and the longer term wave structure, which has an ending diagonal unfolding from 1.4000.The rally from 1.0400 is impulsive, indicating that the trend has turned.A rally through 1.0497 would instill confidence in a bullish outlook.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.0400, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-18-07t7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “a measured objective for the end of the advance from .8162 is the 161.8% extension of .8162-.8476/.8332 at .8840. The Aussie appears headed to a new high (above .8762) as the rally from .8707-.8750 is a 5 wave affair.A bullish bias is warranted against .8707.”The AUDUSD hit .8784 this morning but the decline from there to .8743 is impulsive and warns of additional gains.An ending diagonal may be unfolding but the potential for a turn is high, so we are moving to flat (previously bullish).
Strategy: Move to flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-18-07t8.gif
Commentary: No change in Kiwi: “It is possible that a 3rd wave is complete at .7940.However, the decline so far has been uninspiring and the larger trend remain up.If wave 3 is complete, then look for wave 4 to unfold soon and bottom close to .7714 before a new high in wave 5.Ultimately, a measured objective for the end of the rally from .7237 is the 161.8% extension of .7237-.7637/.7452 at .8099.”
Strategy:Flat
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0717techs2.gif
Commentary:We are looking for a larger correction of strength in the near term, but upside potential remains.It looks like a complex correction is unfolding from the 1.3813 high (a-b-c-X-a-b-c, labeled W-X-Y).The correction is either complete at 1.3756 or will continue lower towards congestion at either 1.3731 or 1.3700.A cautious bullish bias is warranted against 1.3756, since it is possible that the mentioned complex correction ended at 1.3756.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0717techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY rally from 120.97 is in 5 waves, which strongly indicates that the entire decline from 124.13 was an a-b-c correction.The decline from 122.61 is corrective so far and ended near the 61.8% of 120.97-122.61 at 121.60.120.97 must hold in order to keep the bullish structure intact.Ultimately, we are looking for a new high (above 124.13).A rally through 122.08 would indicate that a wave 3 up is underway, which should be powerful.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 120.97, target a break above 124.13, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0717techs4.gif
Commentary: Cable continues to subdivide higher.1 month trendline resistance is at 2.0491 today.The rally from 2.0261 is the 9th wave in the rally that began at 1.9621.As we have commented on here before, reversals occur following completions of 5 wave structures - or derivations of 5 wave structures such as 9, 13, 17, etc.9 waves means that one of waves 1, 3 or 5 is extended.For trading purposes, it does not matter which one is extended but rather that the probability is high that a reversal will occur.That said, Cable can continue to subdivide higher, towards the mentioned resistance line as well as 2.0500.Daily RSI is at 79, which is the highest since December 2006 (GBPUSD reversed then at 1.9847).COT positioning sheds some light on the psychological backdrop http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/British_Pound_Commercial_Interest_Points_1184596213473.html
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0717techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “it appears that an ending diagonal may be unfolding from 1.2068.A drop below 1.1984 would complete 5 waves down from 1.2232 and give scope to a correction back towards 1.2068.”The USDCHF dropped to 1.1973 this morning and has reversed.Look for resistance at 1.2068.The form of the rally from 1.1973 will determine our course of action.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0717techs6.gif
Commentary:See yesterday’s chart and analysis as well as the COT report http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/British_Pound_Commercial_Interest_Points_1184596213473.html in order to understand why the USDCAD is close to putting in a significant bottom.There is no evidence yet that the bottom is in place though.The rally from 1.0416 is in 3 waves so far and therefore the structure remains bearish.A rally through 1.0497 would instill confidence in the upside.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0717techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “sideways consolidation is likely to occur in small wave iv (of v of 3) before a new high is extablished.A measured objective for the end of the advance from .8162 is the 161.8% extension of .8162-.8476/.8332 at .8840.” The Aussie appears headed to a new high (above .8762) as the rally from .8707-.8750 is a 5 wave affair.A bullish bias is warranted against .8707.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8707, targeting .8840
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0717techs8.gif
Commentary: It is possible that a 3rd wave is complete at .7940.However, the decline so far has been uninspiring and the larger trend remain up.If wave 3 is complete, then look for wave 4 to unfold soon and bottom close to .7714 before a new high in wave 5.Ultimately, a measured objective for the end of the rally from .7237 is the 161.8% extension of .7237-.7637/.7452 at .8099.
Strategy:Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs9.gif
< Prev Next > [ Back ]
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs2.gif
Commentary:We wrote Friday that “the EURUSD could test 1.3800 again today before bearish potential comes to the forefront.We say this because the rally from 1.3731 may be tracing out an ending diagonal.If this is the pattern playing out, then we should see a spike through 1.3798 before a reversal.”The EURUSD spiked to 1.3813 Friday and currently rests below the figure.It seems likely that the next move of consequence will be a decline back towards the former 4th wave at 1.3568 Coming under 1.3731 instills confidence in the near term bearish case but only an intial 5 wave decline would signal that the trend has reversed.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY rally from 120.97 is in 5 waves, which strongly indicates that the entire decline from 124.13 was an a-b-c correction.The decline from 122.61 has been corrective so far and ended near the 61.8% of 120.97-122.61 at 121.60.120.97 must hold in order to keep the bullish structure intact.A rally through 122.18 instills confidence in the bullish case.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 120.97, target a break above 124.13, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote Friday that “there is no sign yet of a reversal but the long term structure indicates reversal potential.The near term strucutre certainly allows for a new high (above 2.0365) as the decline from 2.0365 is in a corrective 3 waves.A short term bullish bias is warranted above 2.0261, but strength above 2.0365 will likely be marginal.Until we see impulsive bearish price action, we will remain on the sidelines.”Cable tested the psychological 2.0400 figure this morning before reversing.Coming under 2.0319 warrants a bearish bias (for the reversal).It is also possible that an ending diagonal (shown on the chart today) is unfolding from 2.0261.If this is the case, then one more high (above 2.0366) is in order before the reversal.
Strategy: Sell break of 2.0319.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs5.gif
Commentary:It appears that an ending diagonal may be unfolding from 1.2068.A drop below 1.1984 would complete 5 waves down from 1.2232 and give scope to a correction back towards 1.2068.
Strategy:Move to flat (from bearish)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs6.gif
Commentary:The short term pattern is unclear so we continue to focus on the longer term potential for a bottom.“The reversal that we have been expecting may be underway but we would like to see a clear 5 wave advance to signal the turn and instill confidence in the upside.Coming under 1.0442 could see a test of the long term support line, near 1.0385 this week.We are showing the weekly chart with the wave count to illustrate why the USDCAD is close to putting in a significant low.”
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs7.gif
Commentary:The rally from .8162 is wave v of larger wave 3 (that began at .7415).The rally from .8162 does not look complete though.Sideways consolidation is likely to occur in small wave iv (of v of 3) before a new high is extablished.A measured objective for the end of the advance from .8162 is the 161.8% extension of .8162-.8476/.8332 at .8840.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs8.gif
Commentary: A 3rd wave may be complete at .7930.Expectations now are for wave 4 to unfold and bottom close to .7777 before a new high in wave 5.Ultimately, a measured objective for the end of the rally from .7237 is the 161.8% extension of .7237-.7637/.7452 at .8099.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs8.gif
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0716techs9.gif
< Prev Next > [ Back ]
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-13-07tech2.gif
Commentary:1.3800 held yesterday but the EURUSD could test that level again today before bearish potential comes to the forefront.We say this because the rally from 1.3731 may be tracing out an ending diagonal.If this is the pattern playing out, then we should see a spike through 1.3798 before a reversal.However, upside potential is limited compared to downside risk.It seems likely that we’ll see a decline backl towards the former 4th wave at 1.3568 next week.Coming under 1.3731 instills confidence in the near term bearish case.
Strategy:Sell break of 1.3731, against swing high (currently 1.3798), target 1 is 1.3568, additional bearish potential below there
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-13-07tech3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the USDJPY bounce from 120.97 is still in 3 waves, but a rally through 122.52 would make the rally a 5 wave affair and strongly indicate that the entire decline from 124.13 was an a-b-c correction.Keep in mind that the longer term structure suggests that an A-B-C correction could extend to 128.00 before the larger reversal.”The USDJPY pushed through 122.52 to make the rally from 120.97 5 waves, which sets the tone for additional gains.The decline so far has been corrective but additional support is at 121.83.A break above 124.13 is now the favored view, but 120.97 must hold in order to keep the bullish structure intact.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 120.97, target a break above 124.13, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-13-07tech4.gif
Commentary: “There is no sign yet of a reversal but the long term structure indicates reversal potential.Price has touched the resistance line from the ending diagonal.A terminal thrust through the line is possible but strength should prove temporary.We expect a reversal, and soon.”The near term strucutre certainly allows for a new high (above 2.0365) as the decline from 2.0365 is in a corrective 3 waves.That corrective 3 waves could also be just the first wave of a complex correction.A short term bullish bias is warranted above 2.0261, but strength above 2.0365 will likely be marginal.Coming under 2.0261 exposes former congestion at 2.0243.Similar to the EURUSD, we could very well see a move back to the former 4th wave at 2.0056 next week.However, until we see impulsive bearish price action, we will remain on the sidelines.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-13-07tech5.gif
Commentary:As we have focused on, “look for a period of consolidation/correction to play out in 3 waves.Our count on the daily has price declining below 1.1877 before any meaningful rally attempt takes place.The USDCHF is bearish below 1.2232 although price is unlikely to come near here.”The 3 wave correction is still unfolding and price is likely to push through 1.2068 before the next leg down begins.Resistance is at the 38.2% of 1.2232-1.1992 at1.2084.
Strategy:Remain bearish, against 1.2232, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-13-07tech6.gif
Commentary:The reversal that we have been expecting may be underway but we would like to see a clear 5 wave advance to signal the turn and instill confidence in the upside.Coming under 1.0442 could see a test of the long term support line, near 1.0393.We are showing the weekly chart with the wave count to illustrate why the USDCAD is close to putting in a significant low.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-13-07tech7.gif
Commentary:There is no change in our outlook for the AUDUSD as the our count is tracking nicely.“The AUDUSD continues to chop higher in the 5th wave (of a 5 wave rallythat began at .7415) of the 3rd wave ( of a 5 wave rally that began at .7268).The pair may continue to extend towards where wave v (from .8162) would equal wave i of 3 (.7415-.7979) at .8726.A wave 4 decline is eventually expected to bring price back to .8162 (or close to it) before larger wave 5 completes the advance from .7268.”
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-13-07tech8.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a rally through .7838 would complete 5 waves from .7714 and set the stage for additional gains.”Kiwi did rally through .7838 but a correction may be unfolding near term that brings price back towards .7790.The pattern is not super clear but it is workable.A cautious bullish bias is warranted close to .7790, against .7714.We say cautious because the longer term structure indicates reversal potential (see previous daily techs for longer term analysis).Also, the measured objective for the AUDUSD is just above .8700.Given that the Aussie is close to this level and that Kiwi and Aussie are correlated, upside potential is likely limited.
Strategy:Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007i.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0712techs2.gif
Commentary:No change regarding the EURUSD as the wave 5 within the 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261 is close to an end.We wrote yesterday that “the 5th of the 5th should exceed 1.3786” and the pair hit 1.3798 this morning.1.3800 is psychological resistance but we need to see a ‘5 down’ to suggest that the trend has turned.
Strategy:Move to flat (from bullish)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0712techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY bounce from 120.97 is still in 3 waves, but a rally through 122.52 would make the rally a 5 wave affair and strongly indicate that the entire decline from 124.13 was an a-b-c correction.Keep in mind that the longer term structure suggests that an A-B-C correction could extend to 128.00 before the larger reversal.Still, a bearish bias is warranted against 122.52, which is defended by the 61.8% of 123.47-120.97.
Strategy: Remain bearish, against 122.52, target 120.97
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0712techs4.gif
Commentary: “There is no sign yet of a reversal but the long term structure indicates reversal potential.Price has touched the resistance line from the ending diagonal.A terminal thrust through the line is possible but strength should prove temporary.We expect a reversal, and soon.”This morning’s high at 1.0365 may have completed the 5th wave of the advance 1.9621 and ultimately a much larger advance.Minimum expectations are for a return to the previous 4th wave at 2.0056.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0712techs5.gif
Commentary:“The USDCHF decline is back underway, as evidenced by the ‘5 down’ from 1.2232 to 1.1920.Look for a period of consolidation/correction to play out in 3 waves.Our count on the daily has price declining below 1.1877 before any meaningful rally attempt takes place.The USDCHF is bearish below 1.2232 although price is unlikely to come near here.”That consolidation is playing out now and may print above 1.2068 in a c wave before the next leg down (as shown on chart).
Strategy:Remain bearish, against 1.2232, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0712techs6.gif
Commentary:The reversal that we have been expecting may be underway and a cautious bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 1.0476.Still, we would like to see a clear 5 wave advance to signal the turn and instill confidence in the upside.Coming under 1.0442 could see a test of the long term support line, near 1.0393.We are showing the weekly chart with the wave count to illustrate why the USDCAD is close to putting in a significant low.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0712techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD continues to chop higher in the 5th wave (of a 5 wave rallythat began at .7415) of the 3rd wave ( of a 5 wave rally that began at .7268).The pair may continue to extend towards where wave v (from .8162) would equal wave i of 3 (.7415-.7979) at .8726.A wave 4 decline is eventually expected to bring price back to .8162 (or close to it).
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0712techs8.gif
Commentary: The short term pattern in Kiwi has cleared up.A rally through .7838 would complete 5 waves from .7714 and set the stage for additional gains.On the other hand, if price comes under .7770 before rallying through .7838, there would only be 3 waves up from the bottom, which would set the stage for additional losses.We should know the expected future path of Kiwi within the next day.
Strategy:Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs2.gif
Commentary:Wave 5 within the 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261 is close to an end.The pair is pressing up against the resistance line drawn off of the 6/19 and 7/2 highs.In the very short term, the pair is tracing out a small wave 4 (within larger wave 5).The 5th of the 5th should exceed 1.3786, if only slightly, before a reversal.
Strategy:Move to flat (from bullish)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “longs should be careful as sentiment is ripe for a top”.The USDJPY has plummeted so we are looking to the short term structure to find out what we can expect.The decline from 123.66 is currently in the 4th wave position, therefore we expect a drop below 120.97 in the 5th wave before another correction higher.A short term target for bears os the 161.8% extension of 124.13-122.09/123.66 at 120.37.
Strategy: Remain bearish, against 123.66, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs4.gif
Commentary: There is no sign yet of a reversal but the long term structure indicates reversal potential.Price has touched the resistance line from the ending diagonal.A terminal thrust through the line is possible but strength should prove temporary.We expect a reversal, and soon.We are looking for a return to 1.8515 (time horizon unclear).
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs5.gif
Commentary:The USDCHF decline is back underway, as evidenced by the ‘5 down’ from 1.2232 to 1.1920.Look for a period of consolidation/correction to play out in 3 waves.Our count on the daily has price declining below 1.1877 before any meaningful rally attempt takes place.The USDCHF is bearish below 1.2232 although price is unlikely to come near here).
Strategy:Bearish, against 1.2232, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs6.gif
Commentary:The reversal that we have been expecting is underway.A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 1.0476.See yesterday’s analysis with the weekly chart to see why we think this rally is the real deal.We are looking for much higher prices over the next few months. A rally through 1.0756 would instill confidence in the bull side.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs7.gif
Commentary:There is not much to add regarding the AUDUSD.The pair is right at potential trendline resistance drawn off of the August 2006 and April 2007 highs.This line and bearish divergence with RSI on the daily make getting bullish now a risky proposition.Getting bearish is difficult because there is no sign yet that the pair has reversed.We think that the best opportunity is to wait for a corrective decline to unfold before getting bullish for a run at a new high in a 5th wave.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs8.gif
Commentary: See Monday’s commentary for why we see potential for a longer term top to form.Kiwi has declined but the decline is corrective so far.Coming under .7690 and then the potential support line drawn off of the March and May lows would instill confidence in the longer term bearish outlook.The count remains bullish until that happens, as an impulse may be unfolding from .7452.
Strategy:Move to flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0711techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-10-07tech2.gif
Commentary:We maintain that wave 5 within the 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261 is underway and is to exceed 1.3680 before a reversal with longer term bearish implications.A measured objective for the end wave 5 (that began at 1.3568) is the 161.8% extension of 1.3568-1.3640/1.3594 at 1.3711.Another measured objective for the end of the entire 5 wave rally from 1.3261 is where wave 5 (beginning at 1.3568) would equal wave 1 (1.3261-1.3437) at 1.3744.
Strategy:If already bullish, remain so as long as price is above1.3594, look for a top at 1.3700/50.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-10-07tech3.gif
Commentary:See yesterday’s commentary for the price structure.We want to focus today on the recently released COT report.Speculative net positioning on JPY futures increased from record bearish levels last week.The same scenario occurred in late October 2006 and early February 2007.In each instance, the USDJPY formed tops that week and fell hard.Longs should be careful as sentiment is ripe for a top.
Strategy: Move to flat, get bearish on trendline break.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-10-07tech4.gif
Commentary: There is no sign yet of a reversal but the long term structure indicates reversal potential.The upper resistance line for an ending diagonalfrom 1.8515 is at 2.0343 today.Short term, a cautious bullish stance is warranted against 2.0056.Be careful though because a push through 2.0203 would satisfy minimum expectations.Coming under 2.0056 would indicate additional bearish potential and indicate that either a wave c or a wave 3 is unfolding (we are showing this alternate count today).
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-10-07tech5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the countertrend movement may have ended at 1.2232.If 1.2232 fails to hold, then a complex correction is playing out and we would look for resistance closer to the 61.8% at 1.2329.”Unfortunately, there is little to add today.It remains possible that a complex correction is playing out (which we are showing today) and only a decline below 1.2091 would confidently suggest that the USDCHF is headed lower.
Strategy:Move to flat (as pattern is not clear enough to remain bearish).
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-10-07tech9.gif
Commentary:We were too early in calling the turn but we still expect a reversal.The weekly chart shows why.A 5 wave decline from the 2002 high is nearing its end as evidenced by the ending diagonal (i-ii-iii-iv-v).RSI divergence is also evident on the weekly.A rally through 1.0756 would strongly suggest that a low is in place.We are looking for a 5 wave rally to get bullish against.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-10-07tech10.gif
Commentary:There is not much to add regarding the AUDUSD.The pair is right at potential trendline resistance drawn off of the August 2006 and April 2007 highs.This line and bearish divergence with RSI on the daily make getting bullish now a risky proposition.Getting bearish is difficult because there is no sign yet that the pair has reversed.We think that the best opportunity is to wait for a corrective decline to unfold before getting bullish for a run at a new high in a 5th wave.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-10-07tech8.gif
Commentary: See yesterday’s commentary for why we see potential for a longer term top to form.Kiwi has declined but the decline is corrective so far.Coming under .7690 would instill confidence in the longer term bearish outlook.The count remains bullish until that happens, as an impulse may be unfolding from .7452.
Strategy:Move to flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007i.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs2.gif
Commentary:We wrote Friday that “we are expecting wave 4 to end somewhere near 1.3528/49, which is the former 4th wave and the 38.2% of 1.3371-1.3659 (wave 3).Wave 5 is expected to exceed 1.3680 before a longer term reversal takes hold.”The bottom was put in at 1.3568 and the EURUSD is back above 1.3600 now.There is no change to our outlook for a new high (above 1.3659 and then 1.3680) before the longer term reversal.
Strategy:If already bullish, remain so as long as price is above1.3568.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs3.gif
Commentary:With the dominant pattern being the 3 wave decline from 124.13 to 122.09, we are looking higher as long as channel support (see chart above) holds.A break above 124.13 would expose the next level of chart resistance from the December 2002 high at 125.73.Limit risk to channel support as positioning is extreme (specs extremely short JPY and commercials long JPY), which indicates the high probability of a reversal in the weeks ahead.
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 122.09, target 125.60
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs4.gif
Commentary: There is no sign yet of a reversal but the long term structure indicates reversal potential.The upper resistance line for an ending diagonalfrom 1.8515 is at 2.0338 today (see previous day’s commentary for more on this pattern).Short term, a cautious bullish stance is warranted against 2.0056.Be careful though because a push through 2.0203 would satisfy minimum expectations.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote Friday that “we are treating the rally from 1.2091 as a correction, which means that we expect new lows either today or next week.Fibonacci resistance is at 1.2238 (38.2% of 1.2476-1.2091), 1.2284 (50%) and 1.2329 (61.8%).Look for a reversal of recent strength near one of these levels.”The countertrend movement may have ended at 1.2232.If 1.2232 fails to hold, then a complex correction is playing out and we would look for resistance closer to the 61.8% at 1.2329.
Strategy:Bearish now, against 1.2232, target below 1.2091.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs6.gif
Commentary:We were too early in calling the turn but we still expect a reversal.The weekly chart shows why.A 5 wave decline from the 2002 high is nearing its end as evidenced by the ending diagonal (i-ii-iii-iv-v).RSI divergence is also evident on the weekly.A rally through 1.0756 would strongly suggest that a low is in place.We are looking for a 5 wave rally to get bullish against.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs7.gif
Commentary:The short term pattern is not clear so we are focusing on the longer term chart right now.The impulse rally that followed the break of the triangle began in June 2006.Impulse rallies will either unfold in 5, 9, or 13 waves (these are all derivations of 5 waves - 9 would indicate an extended wave - 13 would indicate 2 extended waves, etc).So far, there are just 7 waves.This means that we are looking for a corrective down leg to be followed by a rally to a new high.When the down leg will begin is anyone’s guess.The best opportunity in the AUDUSD in the next few weeks will be to wait for the corrective decline to unfold before getting bullish for a run at a new high.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs8.gif
Commentary:The short term pattern is not clear so we are focusing on the longer term chart right now.The impulse rally that followed the break of the triangle began in June 2006.Impulse rallies will either unfold in 5, 9, or 13 waves (these are all derivations of 5 waves - 9 would indicate an extended wave - 13 would indicate 2 extended waves, etc).So far, there are just 7 waves.This means that we are looking for a corrective down leg to be followed by a rally to a new high.When the down leg will begin is anyone’s guess.The best opportunity in the AUDUSD in the next few weeks will be to wait for the corrective decline to unfold before getting bullish for a run at a new high.
Strategy: Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0709techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-06-07t2.gif
Commentary:Wave 3 of the 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261 is complete at 1.3659 and wave 4 is underway now.We are expecting wave 4 to end somewhere near 1.3528/49, which is the former 4th wave and the 38.2% of 1.3371-1.3659 (wave 3).Wave 5 is expected to exceed 1.3680 before a longer term reversal takes hold.The structure is bullish as long as price is above 1.3637.
Strategy:Get bullish close to 1.3530, against 1.3437, target 1.3680
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-06-07t3.gif
Commentary:With channel support holding and the dominant pattern being the 3 wave decline from 124.13 to 122.09, we are looking higher.A rally through 123.55 instills confidence in the bullish outlook.A break above 124.13 exposes the next level of chart resistance from the December 2002 high at 125.73.A confluence of Fibonacci measurements suggests that strength may persist until the 128.00 figure.The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67 is at 127.97.The 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 is at 128.70 and the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14 is at 128.33.Three long term Fibonacci measurements in close proximity to one another is rare.When this does happen, the level in question tends to act as a magnet.Limit risk to the 7/2 low at 122.6309 as positioning is extreme (specs extremely short JPY and commercials long JPY), which indicates the high probability of a reversal in the weeks ahead.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 122.09, target 125.60
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-06-07t4.gif
Commentary:We are looking for a major reversal in the GBPUSD.The upper resistance line for an ending diagonalfrom 1.8515 is at 2.0333 today.Cable may push closer to this level but the reward to risk does not justify a bullish position.The daily shows why we are expecting a change in trend.The rally from 1.7046 is nearly complete (or already is) as indicated by the 5 wave structure.The 5th wave is an ending diagonal.These patterns often lead to a violent reversal and are usually fully retraced.Once we see a clear ‘5 down on the intraday (which would signal that a top is in), we will comment on it here.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-06-07t5.gif
Commentary:The 5 wave decline from 1.2476-1.2091 sports an extended 5th wave (from 1.2341).We are treating the rally from 1.2091 as a correction, which means that we expect new lows either today or next week.Fibonacci resistance is at 1.2238 (38.2% of 1.2476-1.2091), 1.2284 (50%) and 1.2329 (61.8%).Look for a reversal of recent strength near one of these levels.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-06-07t6.gif
Commentary:The reversal with long term bullish implications is underway as there are 5 waves up from the 1.0470 low.We are showing the short term structure this morning.A complex correction (W-X-Y) appears to be playing out, meaning that 1.0526 will be broken before the next leg up.1.0470 must remain intact for the structure to remain bullish.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.0470, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-06-07t7.gif
Commentary:The short term pattern is not clear so we are focusing on the longer term chart right now.The impulse rally that followed the break of the triangle began in June 2006.Impulse rallies will either unfold in 5, 9, or 13 waves (these are all derivations of 5 waves - 9 would indicate an extended wave - 13 would indicate 2 extended waves, etc).So far, there are just 7 waves.This means that we are looking for a corrective down leg to be followed by a rall to a new high.When the down leg will begin is anyone’s guess.The best opportunity in the AUDUSD in the next few weeks will be to wait for the corrective decline to unfold before getting bullish for a run at a new high.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/07-06-07t8.gif
Commentary: The short term structure in Kiwi is also unclear.Kiwi is at an interesting point.The pair may be in the early stages of a significant reversal.The decline from .7463-.5928 was most likely an A wave and the rally since has been wave B.Within wave B, the rally from .6719 is nearly equal to the .5928-.7096 rally and .7878 is the 127% of .7463-.5928.The high yesterday was at .7879.This is a common relationship in a flat (wave B is usually retraces between 100%-138.2% of wave A).If our count is correct then wave C is underway and the decline should accelerate in the next few weeks.
Strategy:Bearish now, against .7879, target TBD
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007b.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the wave structure continues to favor the upside.Look for a new high, above 1.3637, in order to complete the third wave within a 5 wave rally from 1.3261.A 4th wave correction would be next and a 5th wave advance would complete the entire rally (above 1.3680).We’ll look for a reversal following the 5th wave completion.”The 4th wave correction is playing out now.Look for support near the 38.2% of 1.3371-1.3659 at 1.3549.The structure is bullish above 1.3437.
Strategy:None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007c.gif
Commentary:“The structure is bullish as long as price is above the 6/7 low of 120.75 and the decline from 123.96 is in 3 waves (corrective).Given the longer term measured objectives at 128.00, now is not the time to get bearish.A cautious bullish stance is warranted against 120.75.A rally through 123.55 would isntill confidence in the bullish outlook.”Trendline support has held and 122.09 is now key to the bullish case.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007d.gif
Commentary:See yesterday’s analysis for the daily chart and longer term outlook.Today we are focusing on the short term chart (60 min) because Cable may be at a turning point.The rally from 1.9621 is in 5 waves and possibly complete.An initial 5 wave decline from the top (2.0203) would signal the reversal and a bearish opportunity.That decline may be underway now.Given the quadruple RSI divergence on the daily that we pointed out yesterday, a cautious bearish stance is warranted against 2.0203.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007e.gif
Commentary:We continue to look lower.The dominant pattern is the 3 wave advance from 1.1993-1.2476, this suggests that 1.1993 will eventually be broken.Additionally, the decline since is impulsive.The decline can be counted as 5 waves down with an extended 5th wave.Near term, the USDCHF may work back towards 1.2341, which is defended by the 61.8% of 1.2476-1.2091 at 1.2329.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007f.gif
Commentary:The reversal with long term bullish implications is underway as there are 5 waves up from the 1.0470 low.The ‘5 up’ is the dominant pattern.The pair has traded sideways since in what appears to be a triangle.A rally through 1.0656 would signal the resumption of the newly established uptrend.1.0470 is critical to the bullish case.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.0470, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007g.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that“a pop above .8596 may complete the 5th wave of the run from .8355.”A spike to .8608 appears to have completed that small degree 5th wave today.The short term pattern is not too clear but the decline unfolding now may be a larger 4th wave.The structure is bullish as long as price is above .8355.Potential trendline support rests near .8400.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007h.gif
Commentary: We wrote last week that Kiwi could test“.7848-.8093 in the next couple of weeks (this is the 100%-161.8% of .7237-.7637/.7452).”The NZDUSD hit .7879 today, which is in the center of our ‘reversal zone’, so a top may be in.As always, only a 5 wave decline would signal with confidence that a top is in.We are watching this pair closely over the next few days – looking for an opportunity to get short.Daily RSI is at 75 and divergent (slightly) with the recent high.
Strategy:Flat
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/Daily_technicals_07-05-2007i.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J2.gif
Commentary:The wave structure continues to favor the upside.Look for a new high, above 1.3637, in order to complete the third wave within a 5 wave rally from 1.3261.A 4th wave correction would be next and a 5th wave advance would complete the entire rally (above 1.3680).We’ll look for a reversal following the 5th wave completion.
Strategy:None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J3.gif
Commentary:Although we have been looking for a decline to at least the 100% extension of 124.13-122.23/123.55 at 121.65, trendline support, drawn off of the April and June lows, has help up.The structure is bullish as long as price is above the 6/7 low of 120.75 and the decline from 123.96 is in 3 waves (corrective).Given the longer term measured objectives at 128.00, now is not the time to get bearish.A cautious bullish stance is warranted against 120.75.A rally through 123.55 would isntill confidence in the bullish outlook.Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J4.gif
Commentary:The rally through 2.0131 has satisfied minimum upside expectations for the end of the ending diagonal that began at 1.8515 (the ending diagonal is the 5th wave within the larger 5 wave sequence from 1.7046).The upper resistance line for the diagonal is at 2.0321 today.Cable may push closer to this level but the reward to risk does not justify a bullish position.Still, looking at the short term intraday charts, the pair looks poised to make another high (above 2.0194) as the decline from there is in 3 waves.Daily RSI shows a quadruple divergence as well and RSI is above 70 so the big decline back towards 1.8500 is expected to begin within the next few days to week.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J10.gif
Commentary:We continue to look lower.The dominant pattern is the 3 wave advance from 1.1993-1.2476, this suggests that 1.1993 will eventually be broken.Additionally, the decline since is impulsive.The decline can be counted as 5 waves down with an extended 5th wave.Near term, the USDCHF may work back towards 1.2341, which is defended by the 61.8% of 1.2476-1.2091 at 1.2329.Since we expect lower levels, we do not feel comfortable getting bullish for the expected countertrend rally.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J6.gif
Commentary:The reversal with long term bullish implications is underway as there are 5 waves up from the 1.0470 low.We are showing the short term structure this morning.A complex correction (W-X-Y) appears to be playing out, meaning that 1.0526 will be broken before the next leg up.1.0470 must remain intact for the structure to remain bullish.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.0470, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J7.gif
Commentary:With the decline from .8596 corrective (so far), continue to look higher as long as price is above .8474.A measured objective for the end of the run is at the 161.8% extension of .8332-.8510/.8355 at .8643.A pop above .8596 may complete the 5th wave of the run from .8355.Similar to the EURUSD, we expect a new high to be short lived as a pullback in a larger 4th wave is expected.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J8.gif
Commentary: We wrote last week that Kiwi could test“.7848-.8093 in the next couple of weeks (this is the 100%-161.8% of .7237-.7637/.7452).”The high today is at .7840 so the bull run may be complete.A 5 wave decline would confirm this but it is possible to count an ending diagonal from .7237 and channel resistance is at today’s high.These are the kind of patterns that lead to sharp reversals.Coming under .7791 signals additional bearish potential.
Strategy:Move to flat, bearish on break of .7791.
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Techs/J9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs2.gif
Commentary:The wave structure continues to favor the upside.Look for a new high, above 1.3637, in order to complete the third wave within a 5 wave rally from 1.3261.A 4th wave correction would be next.The forecase for a range over the next two days makes sense too given the holiday in the U.S. tomorrow.We still expect 1.3680 to be exceeded before reversal potential comes to the forefront.Given that the bulk of the move is complete, we are moving to the sidelines.
Strategy:Move to flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs3.gif
Commentary:Although we have been looking for a decline to at least the 100% extension of 124.13-122.23/123.55 at 121.65, trendline support, drawn off of the April and June lows, has help up.The structure is bullish as long as price is above the 6/7 low of 120.75 and the decline from 123.96 is in 3 waves (corrective).Given the longer term measured objectives at 128.00, now is not the time to get bearish.A cautious bullish stance is warranted against 120.75.A rally through 123.55 would isntill confidence in the bullish outlook.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs4.gif
Commentary:The rally through 2.0131 has satisfied minimum upside expectations for the end of the ending diagonal that began at 1.8515 (the ending diagonal is the 5th wave within the larger 5 wave sequence from 1.7046).The upper resistance line for the diagonal is at 2.0321 today.Cable may push closer to this level but the reward to risk does not justify a bullish position.Still, looking at the short term intraday charts, the pair looks poised to make another high (above 2.0194) as the decline from there is in 3 waves.Daily RSI shows a quadruple divergence as well and RSI is above 70 so the big decline back towards 1.8500 is expected to begin within the next few days to week.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs5.gif
Commentary:We continue to look lower.The dominant pattern is the 3 wave advance from 1.1993-1.2476, this suggests that 1.1993 will eventually be broken.Additionally, the decline since is impulsive.The decline can be counted as 5 waves down with an extended 5th wave.Near term, the USDCHF may work back towards 1.2341, which is defended by the 61.8% of 1.2476-1.2091 at 1.2329.Since we expect lower levels, we do not feel comfortable getting bullish for the expected countertrend rally.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs6.gif
Commentary:The reversal with long term bullish implications is underway as there are 5 waves up from the 1.0470 low.We are showing the short term structure this morning.A complex correction (W-X-Y) appears to be playing out, meaning that 1.0526 will be broken before the next leg up.1.0470 must remain intact for the structure to remain bullish.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.0470, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs7.gif
Commentary:With the decline from .8596 corrective (so far), continue to look higher as long as price is above .8474.A measured objective for the end of the run is at the 161.8% extension of .8332-.8510/.8355 at .8643.A pop above .8596 may complete the 5th wave of the run from .8355.Similar to the EURUSD, we expect a new high to be short lived as a pullback in a larger 4th wave is expected.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs8.gif
Commentary: We wrote last week that Kiwi could test“.7848-.8093 in the next couple of weeks (this is the 100%-161.8% of .7237-.7637/.7452).”The high today is at .7840 so the bull run may be complete.A 5 wave decline would confirm this but it is possible to count an ending diagonal from .7237 and channel resistance is at today’s high.These are the kind of patterns that lead to sharp reversals.Coming under .7791 signals additional bearish potential.
Strategy:Move to flat, bearish on break of .7791.
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0703techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech2.gif
Commentary:As mentioned last week - “The push through 1.3437 signals that wave iii, of a 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261, is underway.An objective is 1.3656, the 161.8% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371.While we are looking for a test or a marginal break of 1.3680, we are expecting the next big move to be down towards the mid 1.2000’s.”The pair is pressing against 1.3600 so there is no reason to change our outlook for a test of 1.3680.Expect some consolidation in wave 4 today or tomorrow before a rally to a new high (above 1.3680).The mentioned reversal is expected though.
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.3414, targeting 1.3656
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech3.gif
Commentary:We wrote Friday that “a potential end for this short term rally is 123.72/90, which is the 78.6% of 124.13-122.23/123.72 and the 100% extension of 122.23-123.36/122.77 (rally could reverse prior).A larger complex correction is playing out from 124.13 (W-X-Y).After the reversal, we are looking for a drop below 122.23.”The pair reversed from 123.55 and we are looking for a decline to at least 124.13-122.23/123.55 at 121.65.Potential trendline support is at 122.25.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech4.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “wave 5 could extend higher but its not a high probability trade.Cable has lagged behind and we will look for a small 5 wave decline in order to get longer term bearish for a return to below 1.9000.”Cable has tested the previous high at 2.0130 (today at 2.0128).A rally through 2.0130 would satisfy minimum upside expectations.The 5th wave of the entire rally from 1.7046 is unfolding as an ending diagonal (from 1.8515).The upper resistance line for the diagonal is at 2.0283 today.A small 5 wave decline (after a break above 2.0131) will signal that it is time to get bearish.
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech5.gif
Commentary:We wrote last week that “the USDCHF structure is now longer term bearish and suggests that the CHF will outperform ther currencies (especially the GBP).”A wave 3 down began at 1.2341 and we are looking for this decline to extend to the 161.8% of 1.2476-1.2258 /1.2341 at 1.1988.Remaining below 1.2258 keeps us looking lower.
Strategy:None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech6.gif
Commentary:The reversal with long term bullish implications is underway as there are 5 waves up from the 1.0470 low.“The decline under 1.0548 satisfies minimum expectations.Since the USDCAD is in a 5th wave, we do not see this as a breakout opportunity.We are showing the weekly chart with the long term outlook (2 to 3 years).”A second wave is either close to complete near current price or will end closer to the 61.8% of 1.0470-1.0656 at 1.0541.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.0470, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech7.gif
Commentary:The Aussie is extending higher.The rally from .8355 looks like a 3rd wave in a 5 wave rally from .8332.A measured objective is at the 161.8% extension of .8332-.8510/.8355 at .8643.The structure is bullish as long as price remains above .8470.
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech8.gif
Commentary: No change in Kiwi.“Looking at the rally from .7237, it is possible that Kiwi is just now entering a third of a third wave that could see the pair test .7848-.8093 in the next couple of weeks (this is the 100%-161.8% of .7237-.7637/.7452).”Remaining above .7686 keeps the structure bullish.
Strategy:Bullish now (breakout), against .7686, target TBD (above .8000)
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/07/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0702tech9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-29-07tech2.gif
Commentary:Our count is tracking well so there is no reason to change our outlook.“The push through 1.3437 signals that wave iii, of a 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261, is underway.An objective is 1.3656, the 161.8% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371.”Be careful at 1.3550, which is the 100% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371 and the 6/5 high (1.3552).While we are looking for a test or a marginal break of 1.3680, we are expecting the next big move to be down towards the mid 1.2000’s.
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.3414, targeting 1.3656
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-29-07tech3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “we are publishing a 5 minute chart this morning to show the potential bullish structure that is forming from 122.23.”As it happened, the USDJPY broke higher from abullish triangle, which means that this rally is terminal (will be reversed).A potential end for this short term rally is 123.72/90, which is the 78.6% of 124.13-122.23/123.72 and the 100% extension of 122.23-123.36/122.77 (rally could reverse prior).A larger complex correction is playing out from 124.13 (W-X-Y).After the reversal, we are looking for a drop below 122.23.
Strategy: Look for bearish opportunity at 123.72/90 against 124.13, targeting below 122.23
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-29-07tech4.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “since the rally unfolding will be a 5th wave rally and the euro is embarking on a 3rd wave rally, there is considerable upside potential for the EURGBP.Be careful about getting bullish here because the high at 2.0040 satisfies minimum upside expectations.Wave 5 could extend higher but its not a high probability trade.”Cable has lagged behind and we will look for a small 5 wave decline in order to get longer term bearish for a return to below 1.9000.Near term, at least a return to the previous 4th wave is expected (1.9927).
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-29-07tech5.gif
Commentary:As mentioned here yesterday, “the decline from 1.2424 looks more like a 3rd wave than a wave c, thus we are abandoning the bullish stance.Near term, it looks like a 4th wave correction is unfolding.”The 5th wave is unfolding now and we will look for a rally towards 1.2341 (next week) in order to get bearish.However, the USDCHF structure is now longer term bearish and suggests that the CHF will outperform ther currencies (especially the GBP).
Strategy:None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-29-07tech6.gif
Commentary:The 5th wave of the decline that began at 1.1879 is close to an end and a multi year advance is likely to begin in the next few weeks.A potential end for the current decline is 1.0400, which is channel support.Still, the decline under 1.0548 satisfies minimum expectations.Since the USDCAD is in a 5th wave, we do not see this as a breakout opportunity.We are showing the weekly chart with the long term outlook (2 to 3 years).
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-29-07tech7.gif
Commentary:We got the rally through .8510 that we were looking for earlier than expected.The Aussie may very well extend higher but we see a possible 5 waves up (not very clear) from .8355, so we are moving to flat after getting bullish yesterday.A correction at least to .8454 is expected.Our next decision will be based on the structure of the decline from .8521.
Strategy: Move to flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-29-07tech8.gif
Commentary: No change in Kiwi.“Looking at the rally from .7237, it is possible that Kiwi is just now entering a third of a third wave that could see the pair test .7848-.8093 in the next couple of weeks (this is the 100%-161.8% of .7237-.7637/.7452).The alternate count is that an ending diagonal from .7237 is close to complete and that a decline will begin soon.Remaining above .7571 keeps the former count favored.”Based on the outlooks for Kiwi and Aussie, AUDNZD looks likely to accelerate its decline.
Strategy:Bullish now (breakout), against .7571, target TBD (above .8000)
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-14-07tech9.jpg
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech2.gif
Commentary:The push through 1.3437 signals that wave iii, of a 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261, is underway.An objective is 1.3656, the 161.8% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371.The decline from 1.3478-1.3414 is viewed as the 2nd wave correction of the smaller 5 wave advance from 1.3371-1.3478 (which is wave i of 3).
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.3371, targeting 1.3656
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech3.gif
Commentary:There is still the potential for a drop to the channel support line, drawn off of the 4/19 and 6/8 lows, near 122.00.The longer term bull trend is bullish above 120.76.“Coming under 120.76 (as well as channel support near 122.00) would indicate additional bearish potential.”The decline from 124.13-122.79 is nearly equal to the 123.51-122.23 decline (6 pips difference).This means that an a-b-c decline could be complete at 122.23.We are publishing a 5 minute chart this morning to show the potential bullish structure that is forming from 122.23.An a-b-c correction may end at the 61.8% of 122.23-123.36 at 122.66.
Strategy: Look for bullish opportunity close to 122.66 Fibo support, 120.76, targeting above 125.00
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech4.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “it is likely that the pullback is complete as 3 waves are visible and impulsive upside action is visible on the very short term charts.The correction that just played out is most likely a 4th wave in the 5 wave sequence from 1.9621.A 5th wave rally is expected to register a new high (above 2.0014) and potentially 2.0130 before a reversal.Wave 5 (from 1.9927) would equal wave 1 at 2.0086 (measured objective).Since the rally unfolding will be a 5th wave rally and the euro is embarking on a 3rd wave rally, there is considerable upside potential for the EURGBP.”Be careful about getting bullish here because the high at 2.0040 satisfies minimum upside expectations.Wave 5 could extend higher but its not a high probability trade.
Strategy: Move to flat (better opportunity in EURUSD).
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech5.gif
Commentary:As mentioned here yesterday, “the decline from 1.2424 looks more like a 3rd wave than a wave c, thus we are abandoning the bullish stance.Near term, it looks like a 4th wave correction is unfolding.”It is clear now that the 4th wave is unfolding as a triangle.A thrust lower in a 5th wave is expected.A larger upward correction is expected following a decline below 1.2258 so now is not the time to get bearish (unless you’re looking for a very short term move).
Strategy:None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech6.gif
Commentary:The USDCAD decline appears to be back underway as there are 5 waves down from 1.0733.The previous 4th wave is at 1.0665 and a small second wave could spike towards there before the decline comes under 1.0548.This is from yesterday.“We are expecting wave 4 to end this week (may already be complete).Price is approaching potential channel resistance, which is just below 1.0800.We are looking for this correction to continue towards channel resistance before a 5th wave decline brings the USDCAD below 1.0548.”See yesterday’s chart for the longer term chart.
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the decline ended this morning at .8373 and looks like a sharp 2nd wave correction.The very short term charts (like the EURUSD) show impulsive upside action.As such, it it likely that a low is in place at .8373 and that price is headed higher (above .8510) over the next few days.We’ll look for targets in the days ahead.A rally through .8421 would increase confidence in the bull argument.”The Aussie did drop below .8773 and stopped us out but the pair has skyrocketed since.Support should be strong near .8417.We still expect a rally through .8510 by next week.
Strategy: Look to align with bulls near .8417, stop at .8355, targets TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech8.gif
Commentary: We advocated a cautious bullish stance yesterday and Kiwi has launched higher to fresh 25 year highs.Looking at the rally from .7237, it is possible that Kiwi is just now entering a third of a third wave that could see the pair test .7848-.8093 in the next couple of weeks (this is the 100%-161.8% of .7237-.7637/.7452).The alternate count is that an ending diagonal from .7237 is close to complete and that a decline will begin soon.Remaining above .7571 keeps the former count favored.
Strategy:Bullish now (breakout), against .7571, target TBD (above .8000)
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Daily_Technicals/0628tech9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-27-07t2.gifCommentary:The push through 1.3437 signals that wave iii, of a 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261, is underway.An objective is 1.3656, the 161.8% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371.The decline from 1.3478-1.3414 is viewed as the 2nd wave correction of the smaller 5 wave advance from 1.3371-1.3478 (which is wave i of 3).
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.3371, targeting 1.3656
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-27-07t3.gif
Commentary:The pullback that we were looking for towards the “channel support line, drawn off of the 4/19 and 6/8 lows, near 122.00/15” is taking place right now.The longer term bull trend is bullish above 120.76.Coming under 120.76 (as well as channel support near 122.00) would indicate additional bearish potential.
Strategy: Look for bullish opportunity close to 122.00/15 channel support, stop and reverse just below 120.76
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-27-07t4.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “we are still looking for a bigger pullback, to channel support near 1.9885/9900.”Cable has pulled backbut has not reached channel support.Still, it is likely that the pullback is complete as 3 waves are visible and impulsive upside action is visible on the very short term charts.The correction that just played out is most likely a 4th wave in the 5 wave sequence from 1.9621.A 5th wave rally is expected to register a new high (above 2.0014) and potentially 2.0130 before a reversal.Wave 5 (from 1.9927) would equal wave 1 at 2.0086 (measured objective).Since the rally unfolding will be a 5th wave rally and the euro is embarking on a 3rd wave rally, there is considerable upside potential for the EURGBP.
Strategy: Move to flat (better opportunity in EURUSD).
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-27-07t5.gif
Commentary:As mentioned here yesterday, “the decline from 1.2424 looks more like a 3rd wave than a wave c, thus we are abandoning the bullish stance.Near term, it looks like a 4th wave correction is unfolding.”It is clear now that the 4th wave is unfolding as a triangle.A thrust lower in a 5th wave is expected.A larger upward correction is expected following a decline below 1.2258 so now is not the time to get bearish (unless you’re looking for a very short term move).
Strategy:None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-27-07t6.gif
Commentary:There is no change to our outlook for the USDCAD as price is close to testing channel resistance.We are expecting wave 4 to end this week (may already be complete).“Price is approaching potential channel resistance, which is just below 1.0800.We are looking for this correction to continue towards channel resistance before a 5th wave decline brings the USDCAD below 1.0548.”
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-27-07t7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “if the rally stalls in the .8515/31 area (or before), then we will assume that the rally from .8332 is the b wave in an irregular flat correction.The next move would be a decline towards .8332.”The decline ended this morning at .8373 and looks like a sharp 2nd wave correction.The very short term charts (like the EURUSD) show impulsive upside action.As such, it it likely that a low is in place at .8373 and that price is headed higher (above .8510) over the next few days.We’ll look for targets in the days ahead.A rally through .8421 would increase confidence in the bull argument.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8373, targets TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-27-07t8.gif
Commentary: The decline from .7690 to .7584 is in 3 waves so far but a rally through .7635 is needed to instill confidence in the upside again.The AUDUSD pattern is much clearer.Considering that the two currencies are highly correlated, a cautious bullish stance is reasonable.The longer term bull is intact above .7452.
Strategy:None
JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-14-07tech9.jpg
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-26-07tech2.gif
Commentary:The push through 1.3437 signals that wave iii, of a 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261, is underway.An objective is 1.3656, the 161.8% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371.Watch the 1.3550 area for resistance as well.The 6/5 high is 1.3552 and the 100% extension is at 1.3547.A break above 1.3472 would be a strong indication that a ‘3rd of a 3rd’ is underway (these are often the strongest moves).
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.3371, targeting 1.3656
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-26-07tech3.gif
Commentary:The pullback that we have warned of is underway right now and there is potential for a drop to the channel support line, drawn off of the 4/19 and 6/8 lows, near 122.00/15.The longer term bull trend is bullish above 120.76 but coming under 120.76 (as well as channel support near 122.00) would indicate additional bearish potential.
Strategy: Look for bullish opportunity close to 122.00/15 channel support, stop and reverse just below 120.76
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-26-07tech4.gif
Commentary:We are still looking for a bigger pullback, to channel support near 1.9885/9900.It is unclear whether or not the decline from 2.0005 is a larger 4th wave or an a-b-c correction as part of a larger 2nd wave.Either way, we are expecting a decline near term before a rally to a new high.
Strategy: Bearish now, against 2.0005, limit and reverse at 1.9900
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-26-07tech5.gif
Commentary:As mentioned here yesterday, “the decline from 1.2424 looks more like a 3rd wave than a wave c, thus we are abandoning the bullish stance.”Near term, it looks like a 4th wave correction is unfolding.There is potential for a spike through 1.2309 before a decline in a small 5th wave towards 1.2225.Resistance on a spike through 1.2309 is the 38.2% of 1.2424-1.2258 at 1.2321.
Strategy:None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-26-07tech6.gif
Commentary:There is no change to our outlook for the USDCAD.“Price is approaching potential channel resistance, which is just below 1.0800.We are looking for this correction to continue towards channel resistance before a 5th wave decline brings the USDCAD below 1.0548.”
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-26-07tech7.gif
Commentary:The short term wave structure is unclear but the series of lower highs keeps us looking higher.The short term trend is considered bullish as long as price is above .8428 but watch for resistance in the .8515/31 area.This is the 127%-138.2% of .8476-.8332.If the rally stalls in the .8515/31 area (or before), then we will assume that the rally from .8332 is the b wave in an irregular flat correction.The next move would be a decline towards .8332.
Strategy: None
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-26-07tech8.gif
Commentary: The rally from .7452 may also be the b wave of an irregular flat correction.If this is the case, then price is likely to fall from close to current price towards .7452.The measured objective for the end of wave b is .7687/.7708, which is the 127%-138.2% of .7637-.7452.Daily RSI is overbought and divergent with the recent high as well.
Strategy:None
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/06/dailyfx_reports/Techs/06-14-07tech9.jpg
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