http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/techs_122407_1.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “The low on Thursday was at 1.4310 and the EURUSD has rallied for a test of 1.44.We posted an update advocating a long in the Elliott Wave forum last week, noticing that a 3 wave decline had followed a 5 wave advance on a short term chart.The advance has continued and at least a push through 1.4410 is expected to complete at least a C wave although there is more bullish potential.
Strategy:Bullish against 1.4309, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/techs_122407_2.gif
Commentary:Near term, the USDJPY has most likely completed a triangle as a 4th wave.The USDJPY should continue to rally towards the 11/7 high of 114.77 with 112.73 remaining intact.A support line drawn off of the 11/26 and 12/11 lows reinforces the bullish bias.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/techs_122407_3.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down and that the next objective is 1.9525.”Today we are looking at the hourly and considering the short term wave count.At this juncture, it is likely that wave iii of 3 is down since price has broken throught the 100% extension of 2.0831-2.0180/2.0576.When price breaks below this level, it is often a sign that the decline will continue until the 161.8% extension.In this case, the 161.8% extension is at 1.9523.Near term, look for a test of 1.9984 (solid black line).
Strategy:Get bearish near 1.9984, against 2.0195, target 1.9530
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/techs_122407_4.gif
Commentary:We have been expecting a reversal at the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.The high yesterday was at 1.1594 but we have yet to see an impulsive decline; even on the very short term charts.Until then, we will refrain from taking action. Aggressive bears can consider getting bearish against 1.1594.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/techs_122407_5.gif
Commentary:The USDCAD is setting up for a big decline.5 waves down from the top (1.0248) are complete at .9951.This decline completes either wave 1 or A of one larger degree.A wave 2 or B corrective rally should end in the 1.0064-1.0135 area (38.2%-61.8% of 1.0248-.9951).Get bearish in that zone, against 1.0248.
Strategy: Get bearish in the 1.0064-1.0135 zone, against 1.0248, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/techs_122407_6.gif
Commentary:We have favored a larger setaback in the AUDUSD in order to complete wave C in an a-b-c correction from .9400.It is possible that the correction is over at .8549, which is just shy of the 50% retrace level of .7673-.9400 and the 200 day SMA at .8532.The next level of support would be the 61.8% at .8333.A cautious bullish bias is warranted against .8549.
Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/techs_122407_7.gif
Commentary:Our favored count is that wave c of a flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507.As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity.The alternate count has an ending diagonal unfolding from .7365 with the rally from .7507 as the beginning of wave 5 within the diagonal.This count is gaining traction so be cautious on the bear side.
Strategy:Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ∆:Slope of the 200 day SMA
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.21.07techs2.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “The low yesterday was at 1.4310 and the EURUSD has rallied through 1.4410 so far.We posted an update advocating a long in the Elliott Wave forum yesterday afternoon, noticing that a 3 wave decline had followed a 5 wave advance on a short term chart.The advance has continued and at least a push through 1.4410 is expected to complete at least a C wave although there is more bullish potential.
Strategy:Bullish against 1.4309, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.21.07techs3.gif
Commentary:Near term, the USDJPY has most likely completed a triangle as a 4th wave.The USDJPY should rally from here into the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83 with 112.73 remaining intact.A support line drawn off of the 11/26 and 12/11 lows reinforces the bullish bias.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.21.07techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down and that the next objective is 1.9525.”Today we are looking at the hourly and considering the short term wave count.At this juncture, it is likely that wave iii of 3 is down since price has broken throught the 100% extension of 2.0831-2.0180/2.0576.When price breaks below this level, it is often a sign that the decline will continue until the 161.8% extension.In this case, the 161.8% extension is at 1.9523.Near term, look for a test of 1.9984 (solid black line).
Strategy:Get bearish near 1.9984, against 2.0195, target 1.9530
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.21.07techs5.gif
Commentary:We have been expecting a reversal at the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.The high yesterday was at 1.1594 but we have yet to see an impulsive decline; even on the very short term charts.Until then, we will refrain from taking action. Aggressive bears can consider getting bearish against 1.1594.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.21.07techs6.gif
Commentary:The USDCAD is setting up for a big decline.5 waves down from the top (1.0248) are complete at .9951.This decline completes either wave 1 or A of one larger degree.A wave 2 or B corrective rally should end in the 1.0064-1.0135 area (38.2%-61.8% of 1.0248-.9951).Get bearish in that zone, against 1.0248.
Strategy: Get bearish in the 1.0064-1.0135 zone, against 1.0248, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.21.07techs7.gif
Commentary:We have favored a larger setaback in the AUDUSD in order to complete wave C in an a-b-c correction from .9400.It is possible that the correction is over at .8549, which is just shy of the 50% retrace level of .7673-.9400 and the 200 day SMA at .8532.The next level of support would be the 61.8% at .8333.A cautious bullish bias is warranted against .8549.
Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.21.07techs8.gif
Commentary:Our favored count is that wave c of a flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507.As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity.The alternate count has an ending diagonal unfolding from .7365 with the rally from .7507 as the beginning of wave 5 within the diagonal.This count is gaining traction so be cautious on the bear side.
Strategy:Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ∆:Slope of the 200 day SMA
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.20.07techs2.gif
Commentary: We wrte yesterday that “the EURUSD may drop below 1.4330 without first challenging 1.4452 and complete wave C (and larger wave 4) of the A-B-C decline from 1.4967.A potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “The EURUSD is approaching this level now but there is no sign of a bottom forming near current price, indicating that the decline could extend into the 1.4100 area.For more on this, see the Special Report that we published yesterday.
Strategy:Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.20.07techs3.gif
Commentary:Near term, the USDJPY is either completing a triangle as a 4th wave or a flat as a 4th wave.In the case of the triangle, the USDJPY should rally from here into the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83 with 112.73 remaining intact.In the case of the flat, the USDJPY will dip below 112.73 to test the support line near 112.55/60 before rallying into the mentioned Fibonacci level.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.20.07techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down.If we see 5 waves down on the daily, then we will get an opportunity sell the wave 2 correction that ensues.Those that wish to begin bearish operations now should look for resistance in the 2.0230 area.”Cable has plummeted below 1.9900 and the next objective is the 161.8% extension at 1.9525.
Strategy:Flat
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency. \
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.20.07techs5.gif
Commentary:The USDCHF is closing in on the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.Given the outlook for bottoms to form in the EURUSD and GBPUSD over the next week or so, we expect a top in the USDCHF near 1.1594.This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.20.07techs6.gif
Commentary:The USDCAD is setting up for a big decline.5 waves down from the top (1.0248) are complete (or close to complete) at .9951.This decline completes either wave 1 or A of one larger degree.A wave 2 corrective rally should end in the 1.0064-1.0135 area (38.2%-61.8% of 1.0248-.9951).Get bearish in that zone, against 1.0248.
Strategy: Get bearish in the 1.0064-1.0135 zone, against 1.0248, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.20.07techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD continues to slide and is likely to continue lower until at least a support shelf which begins with the 200 day SMA at .8517.The next potential support levels are the 61.8% of .7670-.9400 at .8331.We will look for a bottom and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.20.07techs8.gif
Commentary:Wave c of the flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507.As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity.However, wave ii might be complete at price has been unable to push through resistance at .7586.We are showing the 15 minute chart this morning.
Strategy:Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
Commentary:Wave c of the flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507.As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity.However, wave ii might be complete at price has been unable to push through resistance at .7586.We are showing the 15 minute chart this morning.
Strategy:Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.19.07techs2.gif
Commentary: It is still possible that the EURUSD challenges congestion near 1.4452 before the pair reverses and drops to a new low (below 1.4330).However, the EURUSD may drop below 1.4330 without first challenging 1.4452 and complete wave C (and larger wave 4) of the A-B-C decline from 1.4967.A potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309.The next 5 to 6 weeks should see larger wave 5 exceed 1.5000.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:Wave c of the a-b-c correction from 107.20 remains in progress.The next level of potential resistance is the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83, followed by a potential resisting trendline just above 114.00 and then the 78.6% retrace level at 115.63.The rally from 107.20 is wave 2 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 124.13.While potential does remain for a push to the mentioned resistance levels, the USDJPY is setting up for a major decline.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.19.07techs4.gif
Commentary: Cable has broken below the confluence of long term channel support and the 200 day SMA.We wrote yesterday that “if price slips below the confluence of the 200 day SMA/channel support then potential support is at the 100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 at 2.0024.”The GBPUSD is very close to that level right now.If an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down.If we see 5 waves down on the daily, then we will get an opportunity sell the wave 2 correction that ensues.Those that wish to begin bearish operations now should look for resistance in the 2.0230 area.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.19.07techs5.gif
Commentary:The USDCHF is closing in on the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.Given the outlook for bottoms to form in the EURUSD and GBPUSD over the next week or so, we expect a top in the USDCHF near 1.1594.This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.Near term, the rally from 1.1153 (which we are treating as wave C), needs a push through 1.1574 in order to complete 5 waves.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We are still waiting to see if the USDCAD completes 5 waves down from 1.0248.If the USDCAD drops below 1.0026, then the pair will have completed 5 waves lower from the top (1.0248).Under this scenario, we expect price to correctively rally back towards 1.0140.This would offer an opportunity to get aggressively bearish against 1.0248 for a much larger decline.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.19.07techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD continues to slide and is likely to continue lower until at least a support shelf which begins with the 200 day SMA at .8517.The next potential support levels are the 61.8% of .7670-.9400 at .8331.We will look for a bottom and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.19.07techs8.gif
Commentary:We favor the idea that an expanded flat is unfolding (wave b exceeds top of wave v).Wave c of the flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507.As such, expect a corrective setback to end in the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507).
Strategy:Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-18-07techs2.gif
Commentary:Near term, expect the EURUSD to challenge congestion near 1.4452 before the pair reverses and drops to a new low (below 1.4330).The drop below 1.4330 should complete wave C (and larger wave 4) of the A-B-C decline from 1.4967.A potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A; at 1.4309.The next 5 to 6 weeks should see larger wave 5 exceed 1.5000.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-18-07techs3.gif
Commentary:Wave c of the a-b-c correction from 107.20 remains in progress.The next level of potential resistance is the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83, followed by a potential resisting trendline just above 114.00 and then the 78.6% retrace level at 115.63.The rally from 107.20 is wave 2 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 124.13.While potential does remain for a push to the mentioned resistance levels, the USDJPY is setting up for a major decline.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-18-07techs4.gif
Commentary: The short term picture in Cable remains clouded so we are again showing the daily chart with the long term channel support, which is defended by the 200 day SMA.We weote yesterday that we are expecting a significant bottom to form in the next week or so, primarily because of the EURUSD structure.This remains our outlook.If price slips below the confluence of the 200 day SMA/channel support then potential support is at the 100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 at 2.0024.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-18-07techs5.gif
Commentary:The USDCHF is closing in on the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.Given the outlook for bottoms to form in the EURUSD and GBPUSD over the next week or so, we expect a top in the USDCHF near 1.1594.This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-18-07techs6.gif
Commentary:The short term pattern is finally clearing up.If the USDCAD drops below 1.0026, then the pair will have completed 5 waves lower from the top (1.0248).Under this scenario, we expect price to correctively rally back towards 1.0140.This would offer an opportunity to get aggressively bearish against 1.0248 for a much larger decline.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-18-07techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD continues to slide and is likely to continue lower until at least a support shelf which begins with the 200 day SMA at .8517.The next potential support levels are the 61.8% of .7670-.9400 at .8331.We will look for a bottom and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:We favor the idea that an expanded flat is unfolding (wave b exceeds top of wave v).Wave c of the flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.As such, a bearish bias is warranted until price does decline below this level.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:The EURUSD continues to work lower in wave iv within the 5 wave rally from 1.3261.We wrote last week that “the next level of potential support is the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.3360-1.4966 at 1.4353 and where C = A at 1.4306.”The low today is at 1.4330.Near term, a bounce to 1.4452 and maybe even 1.4500 is likely before a new low completes wave iv.In summary, the EURUSD is forming an important low.
Strategy:Flat (bearish target hit at 1.4360)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.17.07techs3.gif
Commentary:We maintain that wave C within an A-B-C rally from 107.20 remains underway.Wave A would equal wave C just below the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83.A resisting trendline is at 114.63 today and decreases about 6 pips per day.We do expect a top and reversal near these levels before wave iii of 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle that began at 124.13 begins.This probably does not happen until after the first of the year.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.17.07techs4.gif
Commentary: Similar to the EURUSD, Cable is forming a significant low.Price is testing the confluence of the 200 day SMA, channel support currently.We will keep a close eye on the short term structure, looking for a low to trade against as the year comes to an end.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.17.07techs5.gif
Commentary:The USDCHF is nearing the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327/1.1153 at 1.1594 and the 61.8% of 1.2215-1.0886 at 1.1707.Given the outlook for bottoms to form in the EURUSD and GBPUSD over the next week or so, we expect a top in the USDCHF near the mentioned levels.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.17.07techs6.gif
Commentary:The short term pattern is not clear right now.The entire rally from .9055 could be the first leg in a new bull; either a 5 leg bull rally or a 3 leg bull rally.The rally from .9055 counts better as a 3 itself, so a large flat might be unfolding from .9055.If this is the case, then the USDCAD is likely to undergo a deep correction, to at least the 61.8% of .9055-1.0248 at .9511.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.17.07techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD continues to slide and is likely to continue lower until at least a support shelf which begins with the 200 day SMA at .8517.The next potential support levels are the 61.8% of .7670-.9400 at .8331.We will look for a bottom and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.17.07techs8.gif
Commentary:We favor the idea that an expanded flat is unfolding (wave b exceeds top of wave v).Wave c of the flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.As such, a bearish bias is warranted until price does decline below this level.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.03.07techs9.gif
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Commentary:Our favored count is playing out.We wrote yesterday to “remain bearish for the drop to the 1.4400’s against 1.4750.”Price has plummeted below 1.4500 and the next level of potential support is the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.3360-1.4966 at 1.4353 and where C = A at 1.4306.
Strategy:Bearish now, move risk to 1.4655 (from 1.4750), target 1.4360
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “we maintain a cautious bullish bias as long as price is above 109.56 in part because the decline yesterday was in only 3 waves, which is corrective.As we have focused on in recent days, the rally from there may be part of wave C within an A-B-C rally from 107.20.A would equal C just below the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83.”This remains the favored count as long as price is above 110.48.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-14-07techs4.gif
Commentary: An argument can be made that Cable is forming a fairly significant bottom.We showed the daily chart yesterday with the long term channel support and that the pair had bounced off of this level on 12/6.With now waves 1 and 2 potentially complete of a new 5 wave bull cycle, a bullish bias is warranted against 2.0180.
Strategy:Bullish, against 2.0180, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-14-07techs5.gif
Commentary:The USDCHF has definitively broken through the 1.1350 level.Price is nearing the 61.8% of 1.1894-1.0886 at 1.1509.The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.Given the outlook for bottoms to form in the EURUSD and GBPUSD over the next week or so, we expect a top in the USDCHF near the mentioned objectives.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-14-07techs6.gif
Commentary:The short term pattern is not clear right now.The USDCAD has broken above a trendline drawn off of the March and August highs.The next level of potential resistance is the 200 day SMA at 1.0534.The count is unclear, but it is obvious that the pair is in an uptrend, especially after the break above the mentioned line.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-14-07techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD has collapsed (as have most currencies against the USD), and our favored count is no longer.The pair is testing support near the .8650 level and a break would give way to the 50% of .7673-.9400 at .8537.Once the pattern clears up, we will publish our thoughts on it here.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-14-07techs8.gif
Commentary:“We have favored the idea that a larger correction is unfolding to more fully correct the 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 but the decline has yet to occur and Kiwi is testing the wave 5 high.While an expaned flat is certainly possible, we urge caution to bears that are attempting to catch the C wave decline into the .7200’s and lower.The rally from .7435, although choppy, could be a series of 1s and 2s.In this case, the NZDUSD rally could accelerate in a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher.Additionally, the pair is making a bid to close above the resistance line drawn off of the July and November highs.A daily close above there adds fuel to the bullish fire.”The pair closed above the line two days ago, which warranted adopting a bullish bias.We maintain a cautious bullish bias as long as price is above .7575.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-13-07techs2.gif
Commentary:In Elliott, our job is to follow the pattern and trade accordingly.As the pattern evolves, so too should our strategy.We have favored the bear side near term recently due to the idea that larger wave B within an A-B-C correction from 1.4966 is complete at the 50% of 1.4966-1.4525 (wave A).This remains our favored count unless price pushes through 1.4750.If that happends, then wave B is a more complex correction itself, with a triangle as b of B, as shown in the chart above.In summary, remain bearish for the drop to the 1.4400’s against 1.4750.If 1.4750 gives way, then price is likely to test at least the 61.8% of A at 1.4800 and maybe the 78.6% at 1.4873.
Strategy:Bearish now, against 1.4750, target 1.4360
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-13-07techs3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “we maintain a cautious bullish bias as long as price is above 109.56 in part because the decline yesterday was in only 3 waves, which is corrective.As we have focused on in recent days, the rally from there may be part of wave C within an A-B-C rally from 107.20.A would equal C just below the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83.”This remains the favored count as long as price is above 110.48.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-13-07techs4.gif
Commentary: Cable continues to range but be careful if on the bearish side as the pair has bounced from long term channel support.Much like the EURUSD, Cable may continue to range before dropping a bit lower, perhaps to test the 100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 at 2.0024.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-13-07techs5.gif
Commentary:With the near term count unclear, we are sticking with the idea that the USDCHF is could top and head lower to complete the larger decline from 1.2468.We wrote yesterday that “with price pushing through 1.1353, it is clear that wave v of 3 is not yet underway.The next level of potential resistance is the 50% of 1.1896-1.0886 at 1.1391.Look for a top and reversal now, which is just in front of the psychologically important 1.1400 as well.”We are not very confident in the count right now and are standing down from taking any action.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-13-07techs6.gif
Commentary:This is one count that we are working with in the USDCAD.It labels the rally from .9055 as an impulse with an extended 5th wave in the form of a diagonal (overlapping).Under this count, larger wave 2 is likely to be a deep retracement, potentially bringing price all the way back to the 61.8% of .9055-1.0216 at .9499.This is also the origin of the diagonal and price often retraces the entire diagonal when that diagonal is in the 5th wave position.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0216, target 1 at .9790
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-13-07techs7n.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the rally from .8659 to .8895 can be counted as a 5 and yesterday’s decline is a 3 (much like the USDJPY decline).A push above .8845 near term would make the rally from .8710 a 5 wave affair and give way to a corrective setback, which would present an opportunity to get bullish (see the arrows that outline the expected path on the chart).”The rally did push through .8845, all the way to .8906.The pair has corrected as expected and we advocate an aggressive bullish stance against .8710.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target .9140
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-13-07techs8.gif
Commentary:“We have favored the idea that a larger correction is unfolding to more fully correct the 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 but the decline has yet to occur and Kiwi is testing the wave 5 high.While an expaned flat is certainly possible, we urge caution to bears that are attempting to catch the C wave decline into the .7200’s and lower.The rally from .7435, although choppy, could be a series of 1s and 2s.In this case, the NZDUSD rally could accelerate in a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher.Additionally, the pair is making a bid to close above the resistance line drawn off of the July and November highs.A daily close above there adds fuel to the bullish fire.”The pair closed above the line yesterday, which warranted adopting a bullish bias.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.12.07techs2.gif
Commentary:We have favored a rally in larger wave B to end near the 61.8% of 1.4966-1.4525 at 1.4800 but evidence exists now that a B wave top is in at 1.4750, which is just pips above the 50% retrace level.As such, we favor a drop below 1.4525 in wave C of the decline from 1.4966 while 1.4750 remains intact.A bearish target is the 38.2% of 1.3360-1.4966 at 1.4353.This count was first presented yesterday afternoon in the Elliott wave forum in post # 2188.
Strategy:Bearish now, against 1.4750, target 1.4360
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.12.07techs3.gif
Commentary:We maintain a cautious bullish bias as long as price is above 109.56 in part because the decline yesterday was in only 3 waves, which is corrective.As we have focused on in recent days, the rally from there may be part of wave C within an A-B-C rally from 107.20.A would equal C just below the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.12.07techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the rally from 2.0180 is testing resistance from the 61.8% of 2.0678-2.0180 at 2.0488 and the 11/23 low at 2.0518.Look for a top and reversal now.”Cable’s high yesterday was 2.0518 and the pair fell to 2.0328 before finding support and rallying back towards 2.0450.With the rally from 2.0180-2.0518 in just 3 waves, we expect a drop below 2.0180 and maybe a test of the 100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 at 2.0024 before the pair finds real support.
Strategy:Bearish, move risk to 2.0518 (from 2.0678), target below 2.0030
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.12.07techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “with price pushing through 1.1353, it is clear that wave v of 3 is not yet underway.The next level of potential resistance is the 50% of 1.1896-1.0886 at 1.1391.”Look for a top and reversal near that level, which is just in front of the psychologically important 1.1400 as well.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.12.07techs6.gif
Commentary:This is one count that we are working with in the USDCAD.It labels the rally from .9055 as an impulse with an extended 5th wave in the form of a diagonal (overlapping).Under this count, larger wave 2 is likely to be a deep retracement, potentially bringing price all the way back to the 61.8% of .9055-1.0216 at .9499.This is also the origin of the diagonal and price often retraces the entire diagonal when that diagonal is in the 5th wave position.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0216, target 1 at .9790
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.12.07techs7.gif
Commentary:We are posting a short term 15 minute chart this morning to show the bullish potential.The rally from .8659 to .8895 can be counted as a 5 and yesterday’s decline is a 3 (much like the USDJPY decline).A push above .8845 near term would make the rally from .8710 a 5 wave affair and give way to a corrective setback, which would present an opportunity to get bullish (see the arrows that outline the expected path on the chart).We eventually expect a rally through .9068 at the minimum.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target .9140
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.12.07techs8.gif
Commentary:We have favored the idea that a larger correction is unfolding to more fully correct the 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 but the decline has yet to occur and Kiwi is testing the wave 5 high.While an expaned flat is certainly possible, we urge caution to bears that are attempting to catch the C wave decline into the .7200’s and lower.The rally from .7435, although choppy, could be a series of 1s and 2s.In this case, the NZDUSD rally could accelerate in a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher.Additionally, the pair is making a bid to close above the resistance line drawn off of the July and November highs.A daily close above there adds fuel to the bullish fire.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.03.07techs9.gif
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-11-07techs2.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the call for “a test of 1.4800 (61.8% of 1.4966-1.4526) before bearish potential comes to the forefront.”As mentioned the last few days, we maintain that a large flat or triangle is unfolding from 1.4966.The decline from 1.4966-1.4525 was most likely the first wave of a a 3 wave correction (or a triangle).Look for resistance near 1.4800/70.The rally is likely to accelerate near term with the small degree count indicating that a third wave may be underway from 1.4654.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-11-07techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY continues to trend upwards although the rally from 109.66 is not especially clear.The rally from 109.56 is wave C of an A-B-C from 107.20 but wave C is just 61.8% of wave A to this point.The next level of potential resistance is 112.57 (50% of 117.93-107.20) and then the confluence of the 61.8% and 161.8% extension of C from A at 113.58/83.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-11-07techs4.gif
Commentary: We still favor a drop to the long term channel support that we focused on last week.Also, a measured objective is at 2.0024 (100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831).The rally from 2.0180 is testing resistance from the 61.8% of 2.0678-2.0180 at 2.0488 and the 11/23 low at 2.0518.Look for a top and reversal now.The next level of potential resistance is the 78.6% at 2.0572.Risk should be kep to 2.0678.
Strategy:Bearish, against 2.0678, target below 2.0180
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-11-07techs5.gif
Commentary:With price pushing through 1.1353, it is clear that wave 5 is not yet underway.The next level of potential resistance is the 38.2% of 1.2215-1.0886 at 1.1393.This would be where wave 4 would have retraced 38.2% of wave 3, a common Elliott relationship.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-11-07techs6.gif
Commentary:There is little change to the USDCAD.The resisting trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci level the last few days on the daily chart has turned us bearish.The pair will not even have retraced 38.2% of its rally from .9055 until .9772.Potential support prior to that level is a line at .9940.In sunmmary, remain bearish.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0149, target 1 at .9790
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-11-07techs7.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the AUDUSD as the pair has formed a base near .8650 and the rally may be ready to accelerate.“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target .9140
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-11-07techs8.gif
Commentary:We would still like to see a larger corrective setback in the Kiwi before committing ot he bull side but we have presented an alternate (immediately bullish) count in red letters.The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline with the current advance as wave B.However, a rally through .7891 would force us to switch our count to the alternate (in red) bullish count.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.10.07techs2.gif
Commentary:We wrote Friday that “a cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.4770 but a larger correction is likely playing out in the form of a flat or triangle.This suggests that a test of 1.4800 (61.8% of 1.4966-1.4526) is possible (if not probable) before bearish potential comes to the forefront.”This outlook remains intact.The decline from 1.4966-1.4525 was most likely the first wave of a a 3 wave correction (or a triangle).Look for resistance near 1.4800/70.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.10.07techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY has run into chart resistance from the former 4th wave extreme at 111.76.We maintain that wave C of the A-B-C rally from 107.20 is underway towards 113.50/114.00.The rally from 109.66 is not especially clear although it it probably wave i of C.As such, expect a deep wave ii retracement that brings price back to at least 110.63 before a strong rally in wave iii of C.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.10.07techs4.gif
Commentary: We still favor a drop to the long term channel support that we focused on last week.Also, a measured objective is at 2.0024 (100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831).The rally from 2.0180 is fast approaching potential resistance from the 1.8% of 2.0678-2.0180 at 2.0488 and the 11/23 low at 2.0518.Look for a top and reversal in this vicinity.
Strategy:Get bearish near 2.0500, against 2.0678, target below 2.0180
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.10.07techs5.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the outlook that calls for a drop below 1.0886 in order to complete wave 3 within a 5 wave bear cycle from 1.2468.“With price stalling near the 4th wave (iv) of one less degree, probability is high that the USDCHF is beginning a wave v decline to complete larger wave 3.”
Strategy:Bearish, against 1.1353, target 1.0886
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.10.07techs6.gif
Commentary:There is little change to the USDCAD.The resisting trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci level the last few days on the daily chart has turned us bearish.The pair will not even have retraced 38.2% of its rally from .9055 until .9772.Potential support prior to that level is a line at .9940.In sunmmary, remain bearish.
Strategy: Bearish move risk to 1.0149 (from 1.0216), target 1 at .9790
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.10.07techs7.gif
Commentary:We have stuck to our guns regarding the bullish count and patience might be paying off here.“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target .9140
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12.10.07techs8.gif
Commentary:We would still like to see a larger corrective setback in the Kiwi before committing ot he bull side but we have presented an alternate (immediately bullish) count in red letters.The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline with the current advance as wave B.However, a rally through .7891 would force us to switch our count to the alternate (in red) bullish count.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-7-2007techs2.gif
Commentary:A cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.4770 but a larger correction is likely playing out in the form of a flat or triangle.This suggests that a test of 1.4800 (61.8% of 1.4966-1.4526) is possible (if not probable) before bearish potential comes to the forefront.Elliott channeling suggests that the correction is not over since the decline in wave iv has yet to challenge the parallel line that defines the uptrend from 1.3261.We will have a special report on the EURUSD (Elliott and technically based) out later this afternoon.
Strategy:Exit bearish position
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-7-2007techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY has run into chart resistance from the former 4th wave extreme at 111.76.It is possible that wave C of the A-B-C is underway towards 113.50/114.00 but the character of the advance does not fit as a C wave.“The other scenario is that a larger correction is underway (expanded flat…arrows shown in red) and that the ‘real’ next leg up in the USDJPY will not occur until a test of 109.21 (50% of 107.20-111.22).That scenario is outlined here.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-7-2007techs4.gif
Commentary: There is not change to the GBPUSD outlook.We wrote yesterday that “a small period of consolidaton is in order before we get a test of the mentioned channel support (probably next week) closer to 2.0100.A measured objective is at 2.0024 (100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831).”That consolidation is unfolding now.We expect a test of the mentioned channel support early next week.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-7-2007techs5.gif
Commentary:We have been looking to get bullish the USDCHF recently but the wave count on the daily chart argues for a drop to a new low (below 1.0886) before a larger recovery.With price stalling near the 4th wave (iv) of one less degree, probability is high that the USDCHF is beginning a wave v decline to complete larger wave 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.2468.
Strategy:Bearish, against 1.1353, target 1.0886
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-7-2007techs6.gif
Commentary:We have showed the daily chart with the resisting trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci level the last few days.That confluence turned us bearish near 1.0200 and there is much more bearish potential.In fact, the USDCAD will not even have retraced 38.2% of its rally from .9055 until .9772.Potential support prior to that level is a line at .9940.In sunmmary, remain bearish.
Strategy: Bearish move risk to 1.0149 (from 1.0216), target 1 at .9790
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-7-2007techs7.gif
Commentary:We have stuck to our guns regarding the bullish count and patience might be paying off here.“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target .9140
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-7-2007techs8.gif
Commentary:We would still like to see a larger corrective setback in the Kiwi before committing ot he bull side but we have presented an alternate (immediately bullish) count in red letters.The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline with the current advance as wave B.However, a rally through .7891 would force us to switch our count to the alternate (in red) bullish count.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-6-2007techs2.gif
Commentary:We maintain that wave 4 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3261 is underway now.Wave 2 (of the same degree) took 4 weeks to play out and this week is week 3 for wave 4.Therefore, we expect a significant bottom to form next week.We wrote yesterday that “it is possible that wave B of 4 is complete at 1.4770 and that wave C is underway towards 1.4500.”As it turns out, wave B was in place and the EURUSD is on its way towards where C would equal A at 1.4423.The 38.2% of larger 3 is at 1.4353.We expect at least a drop to 1.4423 by next week and possibly 1.4353.Near term resistance to add to the short trade is at 1.4620.
Strategy:Bearish, move risk to 1.4770 (from 1.4908), target 1 at 1.4430
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-6-2007techs3.gif
Commentary:The correction that we have expected could be complete at 109.66.The other scenario is that a larger correction is underway and that the ‘real’ next leg up in the USDJPY will not occur until a test of 109.21 (50% of 107.20-111.22).That scenario is outlined here.
Strategy: Flat (for now)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-6-2007techs4.gif
Commentary: Stepping back and focusing on the daily channel has served us well this last week.We wrote a few days ago that the GBPUSD has dropped below the midpoint of the long term channel and that price is likely to test channel support.The pair has plummeted and a small period of consolidaton is in order before we get a test of the mentioned channel support (probably next week) closer to 2.0100.A measured objective is at 2.0024 (100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831).
Strategy: Bearish target hit at 2.0200
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-6-2007techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “a short term bullish bias is warranted against 1.1153 since the decline from the top is in 3 waves.A larger correction could test the 61.8% of 1.0886-1.1327 at 1.1054.”The larger correction did not play out and the USDCHF is in the next leg up (that could test 1.1594).A small setback offers an opportunity to get bullish against 1.1153.Look for long opportunities at 1.1265 and 1.1230.
Strategy:Get bullish near 1.1230/1.1265, against 1.1153, target 1.1594
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-6-2007techs6.gif
Commentary:The USDCAD is putting the trendline / Fibonacci combination that we have mentioned the last week to test.We wrote yesterday that “a daily close above the trendline gives scope to the next level of potential resistance at the 78.6% level (1.0479).”What we saw yesterday was a spinning top that gives scope to a reversal towards weakness in the USDCAD.The short term pattern shows a small 5 wave decline with the current rally as a corrective bounce.A bearish bias is warranted against 1.0216.
Strategy: Bearish against 1.0216, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/12/dailyfx_reports/Techs/12-6-2007techs7.gif
Commentary:“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”We have maintained a short term bullish stance against .8653 and price has held above there (barely).Needless to say, confidence in the bull at this point is low.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target TBD
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Commentary:We would still like to see a larger corrective setback in the Kiwi before committing ot he bull side.“The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline.Wave B may have ended at .7760 and wave C is underway now.Under this count, price is expected to come under .7435 and likely test the 50% of .6639-.7891 at .7265 before the next leg up begins.The NZDUSD count is more clear than the AUDUSD count.The bearish Kiwi count calls into question our short term bullish stance regarding the AUDUSD.”
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We maintain that “wave 4 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3261 is underway now.Wave 2 (of the same degree) took 4 weeks to play out and this week is week 3 for wave 4.Therefore, we expect a significant bottom to form next week.”It is possible that wave B of 4 is complete at 1.4770 and that wave C is underway towards 1.4500.The other possibility is that wave B will continue to play out and test 1.4800/35.Either way, a bearish bias is warranted against 1.4908.
Strategy:If already bearish, remain so against 1.4908.If not, get bearish near 1.4835
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Commentary:The correction that we have expected could be complete at 109.66.A rally through 110.67 would instill confidence in this scenario.The other possibility is that the correction from 111.22 is not over yet and that a larger more complex correction is unfolding.Under this scenario, support should be stron at 109.00, which is where wave c (from 110.67) would equal wave a (111.22-109.56).Subjectively speaking, we favor the idea that the USDJPY correction is still underway and that a dip below 109.56 is needed to complete the correction.
Strategy: Get bullish near 109.00, against 107.20, target 1 at 113.50, target 2 much higher
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a well defined channel goes back to May 2006.Notice that the GBPUSD has broken below the midpoint of that channel.As such, a bearish bias is warranted until at least a test of channel support near 2.0100/2.0150.”The GBPUSD has plummeted and currently sits below 2.0400.Again, we continue to favor the downside for a test of channel support, which is at 2.0111 today and increases about 4 pips per day.
Strategy: Bearish, move risk to 2.0698 (from 2.0831), target 2.0200
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “we were looking for an opportunity to get bullish for the next advance.Support should be strong near the confluence of the 50% of 1.0886-1.1327 / former 4th wave low at 1.1096/1.1106.”The USDCHF failed to reach the figure (1.1100) but bounced from the 38.2% of 1.0886 at 1.1158 instead.Similar to the EURUSD and USDJPY, a larger correction could unfold, but a short term bullish bias is warranted against 1.1153 since the decline from the top is in 3 waves.A larger correction could test the 61.8% of 1.0886-1.1327 at 1.1054.
Strategy:Get bullish near 1.1100, against 1.0886, target above 1.1327
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Commentary:The USDCAD is putting the trendline / Fibonacci combination that we mentioned yesterday to test.Price is just above the 61.8% of 1.0866-.9055 at 1.0174.A daily close above the trendline gives scope to the next level of potential resistance at the 78.6% level (1.0479).
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:We are maintaining a bullish stance against .8653, although confidence in the pattern is low at this point.“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target TBD
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Commentary: The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline.Wave B may have ended at .7760 and wave C is underway now.Under this count, price is expected to come under .7435 and likely test the 50% of .6639-.7891 at .7265 before the next leg up begins.The NZDUSD count is more clear than the AUDUSD count.The bearish Kiwi count calls into question our short term bullish stance regarding the AUDUSD.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:Wave 4 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3261 is underway now.Wave 2 (of the same degree) took 4 weeks to play out and this week is week 3 for wave 4.Therefore, we expect a significant bottom to form next week.The rise from 1.4620 is wave b of 4.Look for wave c of 4 to begin in the next few days.Resistance should be strong near 1.4835 (61.8% of 1.4967-1.4620).
Strategy:If already bearish, remain so against 1.4908.If not, get bearish near 1.4835
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Commentary:We wrote the last few days that “the USDJPY rally is likely coming to an end near term.There are now 5 waves higher from 107.20, indicating that the USDJPY has more upside potential, but not before a corrective decline that likely sees at least 109.46.”Price has fallen to 109.57 this morning.The USDJPY could continue to slide but support should be strong at 108.74 (61.8% of prevous rally).
Strategy: Get bullish near 108.74/109.20, against 107.20, target 1 at 113.50, target 2 much higher
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Commentary: The short term Cable picture has yet to clear up.With all of the confusion on the intraday charts, we are presenting the daily chart today.This well defined channel goes back to May 2006.Notice that the GBPUSD has broken below the midpoint of that channel.As such, a bearish bias is warranted until at least a test of channel support near 2.0100/2.0150.
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0831, target 2.0200
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “we expect a larger corrective setback to occur after a new high is registered to bring the USDCHF back to the 1.1100 area in either a 2nd wave or B wave.This would offer an opportunity to get bullish for the next advance.”The USDCHF failed to make a new high (above 1.1327) but the larger setback is underway now.Support should be strong near the confluence of the 50% of 1.0886-1.1327 / former 4th wave low at 1.1096/1.1106.
Strategy:Get bullish near 1.1100, against 1.0886, target above 1.1327
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Commentary:Near term price action is choppy and unclear from an EW standpoint.On the daily chart, the rally from .9055 has retraced over 50% of the 1.0866-.9055 decline.The next level of potential resistance is the 9/26 high at 1.0095, then the confluence of the 61.8% of 1.0866-.9055 / trendline drawn off of the March and August highs at 1.0174.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:We are maintaining a bullish stance against .8653, although confidence in the pattern is low at this point.“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target TBD
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Commentary: The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline.Wave B may have ended at .7760 and wave C is underway now.Under this count, price is expected to come under .7435 and likely test the 50% of .6639-.7891 at .7265 before the next leg up begins.The NZDUSD count is more clear than the AUDUSD count.The bearish Kiwi count calls into question our short term bullish stance regarding the AUDUSD.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:The EURUSD has fallen as expected but we expect a bit more weakness and a test of at least the 23.6% of 1.3360-14967 at 1.4588.A dip to this level would complete wave 4 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3261. A deeper correction, to the 38.2% at 1.4353 is also possible although bears will also have to contend with the 11/13 low at 1.4520.
Strategy:Bearishm, move risk to 1.4785 (from 1.4858), target 1.4520
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Commentary:We wrote Friday that “the USDJPY rally is likely coming to an end near term.There are now 5 waves higher from 107.20, indicating that the USDJPY has more upside potential, but not before a corrective decline that likely sees at least 109.46.”After reversing at 111.22, the corrective decline that we mentioned is underway.Again, look for at least a decline to 109.46 and maybe 108.74 before the next leg higher.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: As long as price is below 2.0831, the bias remains bearish.“The favored count treats the decline from 2.1160-2.0522 as larger wave 1 (or A) in a bear cycle with the rally to 2.0844 as wave 2 of the same degree.The decline to 2.0353 was wave 1 of 3 and the choppy rally from 2.0353 to 2.0831 can be counted as a triple zigzag, which fits as wave 2 of 3.Wave 3 of larger 3 appears as though it is underway now and downside potential is much greater.”The alternate count treats the decline from 2.1160 as the beginning of a large triangle or flat.
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0831, target much lower
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Commentary:A push through 1.1327 would complete an extended 5th wave within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.0937.We expect a larger corrective setback to occur after a new high is registered to bring the USDCHF back to the 1.1100 area in either a 2nd wave or B wave.This would offer an opportunity to get bullish for the next advance.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:Near term price action is choppy and unclear from an EW standpoint.On the daily chart, the rally from .9055 has retraced over 50% of the 1.0866-.9055 decline.The next level of potential resistance is the 9/26 high at 1.0095, then the confluence of the 61.8% of 1.0866-.9055 / trendline drawn off of the March and August highs at 1.0174.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:There is no change to the AUDUSD pattern.“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”However, keep in mind the longer term pattern we showed last week.That pattern argues for a top of significant proportion to form in the next few weeks.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target TBD
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Commentary: The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline.The current rally is wave B.Wave B could exceed .7891 in an expanded flat but we do expect price to eventually come under .7435 and test .7365 (10/22 low).Near term, it looks like at least one more high is required before price turns lower in wave C.A spike through .7760 could test the 78.6% of .7891-.7435 at .7794 before price rolls over.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We are still looking for a larger decline.There are 2 counts that we are following closely; “the decline from 1.4967 has either completed the first leg of a flat correction (3 waves down to this point) or a more bearish structure is unfolding now and the decline from 1.4908 is wave 3 within a 5 wave bearish cycle from the top.”Both scenarios remain valid at this point but we favor the former corrective scenario.This treats the first 3 wave decline as wave A in a larger A-B-C correction.The more bearish count (in red) treats the decline from the top as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.Both counts are bearish and call for at least a return to 1.4520.The more bearish count would see price get to this level much quicker.
Strategy:Bearish against 1.4858, target 1.4520
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Commentary:The USDJPY rally is likely coming to an end near term.There are now 5 waves higher from 107.20, indicating that the USDJPY has more upside potential, but not before a corrective decline that likely sees at least 109.46.A push to the 38.2% of 117.93-107.20 at 111.30 is still very much a possibility but at this point, downside risk outweighs upside potential.We will look to re-establish long positions on the expected decline.
Strategy: Exit bullish position
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Commentary: The decline that we have anticipated may finally be underway.The favored count treats the decline from 2.1160-2.0522 as larger wave 1 (or A) in a bear cycle with the rally to 2.0844 as wave 2 of the same degree.The decline to 2.0353 was wave 1 of 3 and the choppy rally from 2.0353 to 2.0831 can be counted as a triple zigzag, which fits as wave 2 of 3.Wave 3 of larger 3 appears as though it is underway now and downside potential is much greater.Short term potential resistance is at 2.0740.
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0831, target much lower
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Commentary:We maintain that price is expected to challenge former congestion at 1.1300 in the next few weeks (if not sooner).“The rally from 1.0886 is a beautiful 5 wave advance.5 Waves higher indicates that the trend of the next larger degree is up so we should expect at least one more 5 wave rally, but not before a corrective setback.We will use this correction to get bullish.”Support should be strong in the 1.1100 area.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We have been looking for a much larger setback but the wave structure at small degrees of trend indicates additional bullish potential.It is also possible that a triangle or some other corrective pattern is unfolding from .9992.A bearish outcome remains possible as long as price is below 1.0002.As mentioned though, the wave structure at smaller degrees of trend does not favor the downside.The bullish count is shown on the chart but the recent decline looks corrective (circled).
Strategy: Exit bearish position
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Commentary:There is no change to the AUDUSD pattern.“The decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.”However, keep in mind the longer term pattern we showed last week.That pattern argues for a top of significant proportion to form in the next few weeks.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target TBD
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Commentary: The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline.The current rally is wave B.Wave B could exceed .7891 in an expanded flat but we do expect price to eventually come under .7435 and test .7365 (10/22 low).Near term, it looks like at least one more high is required before price turns lower in wave C.A spike through .7760 could test the 78.6% of .7891-.7435 at .7794 before price rolls over.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:There is little change from yesteday’s commentary.We wrote yesterday that “the decline from 1.4967 has either completed the first leg of a flat correction (3 waves down to this point) or a more bearish structure is unfolding now and the decline from 1.4908 is wave 3 within a 5 wave bearish cycle from the top.”Both scenarios remain valid at this point but we favor the former corrective scenario.This treats the first 3 wave decline as wave A in a larger A-B-C correction.The more bearish count (in red) treats the decline from the top as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.Both counts are bearish and call for at least a return to 1.4520.The more bearish count would see price get to this level much quicker.
Strategy:Bearish against 1.4858, target 1.4520
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Commentary:The USDJPY rally is unfolding as expected.The dip to 109.68 last night likely completed wave iv of either 3 or C.A rally through 110.48 would satisfy minimum expectations for the rally from 107.52.Targets for the end of the near term rally are 111.31 (where wave iv from 109.68 would equal wave i (107.52-109.15)).111.30 happens to be the 38.2% of 117.93-107.20 as well.
Strategy: Bullish, move risk to 109.68 (from 108.26), target 111.20
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Commentary: The bearish count that we presented yesterday treated the rally from 2.0353 as a double zigzag.That rally has changed into a triple zigzag.“Under the bearish count, the decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle.The rally from 2.0522-2.0844 is wave 2.The decline from 2.0844-2.0504 is wave 1 of larger 3.”Again, the choppy rally from 2.0353 to 2.0831 can be counted as a triple zigzag, which fits as wave 2 of larger 3.Wave 3 of larger 3 may be about to begin now.If so, then price must remain below 2.0844 (preferably 2.0831) and the downside is much greater.Reward/risk favors bears.
Strategy: Get bearish near 2.0680, against 2.0831, target much lower
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the recent turn is either a correction in larger wave 4 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.2467 or is something more bullish.Either way, price is expected to challenge former congestion at 1.1300 in the next few weeks (if not sooner).”The USDCHF is already pressing against 1.1200 and the rally from 1.0886 is a beautiful 5 wave advance.5 Waves higher indicates that the trend of the next larger degree is up so we should expect at least one more 5 wave rally, but not before a corrective setback.We will use this correction to get bullish.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the large double zigzag that we proposed may be complete.The USDCAD has run into resistance from former congeston (circled) and the 50% of 1.0866-.9055 at .9961.”A 5 wave decline is complete at .9835 and a setback is unfolding now as either larger wave 2 or B.The rally has stalled at the 50% of 1.0002-.9835.Potential resistance is at the 61.8% at .9936.The next leg lower should challenge .9700.
Strategy: Bearish against 1.0002, target .9710
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Commentary:Near term, the decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8653, target TBD
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Commentary: The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline.The current rally is wave B.Wave B could exceed .7891 in an expanded flat but we do expect price to eventually come under .7435 and test .7365 (10/22 low).Near term, it looks like at least one more high is required before price turns lower in wave C.A spike through .7760 could test the 78.6% of .7891-.7435 at .7794 before price rolls over.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:It seems likely now that a top is in place for the EURUSD at 1.4967 until at least 1.4520.The decline from 1.4967 has either completed the first leg of a flat correction (3 waves down to this point) or a more bearish structure is unfolding now and the decline from 1.4908 is wave 3 within a 5 wave bearish cycle from the top.In the former instance, price could test 1.4967 before a larger drop.In the latter instance, price is likely to continue lower from current levels until 1.4600/15 (1.4613 is the 161.87% extension of 1.4967-1.4785/1.4908) before a bounce.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that“this rally could continue to at least the former 4th wave at 111.75.”With 5 waves down from 117.93-107.20, there is no change in the outlook for a larger recovery.Initial resistance is not until the 38.2% of the drop at 111.30.This level is defended by the former 4th wave at 111.76.As the structure of the rally unfolds, we will be better able to determine bullish targets.
Strategy: Bullish, move risk to 108.26 (from 107.21), target TBD (probably near 111.30/80)
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Commentary: We are sticking with the bearish count.Under the bearish count, the decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle.The rally from 2.0522-2.0844 is wave 2.The decline from 2.0844-2.0504 is wave 1 of larger 3.The choppy rally from 2.0353 to 2.0762 can be counted as a double zigzag, which fits as wave 2 of larger 3.As such, wave 3 of larger 3 may be about to begin now.If so, then price must remain below 2.0762 and the downside is much greater.Reward/risk favors bears.
Strategy: Bearish, move risk to 2.0762 (from 2.0844), target TBD (much lower)
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Commentary:We have focused recently on the fact that the USDCHF is in a 5th wave (like the EURUSD) and that a turn was expected.The recent turn is either a correction in larger wave 4 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.2467 or is something more bullish.Either way, price is expected to challenge former congestion at 1.1300 in the next few weeks (if not sooner).
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:The large double zigzag that we proposed may be complete.The USDCAD has run into resistance from former congeston (circled) and the 50% of 1.0866-.9055 at .9961.Still, the rally from .9055 is likely just the first leg in a larger rally.Therefore, the expected setback offers an opportunity to get bullish.Potential support begins at .9703.
Strategy: Exit bullish position
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Commentary: See yesterday’s report for the longer term count.Near term, the decline from .9399 could be just an a-b-c decline.This is suggestive of a resumption of the uptrend and eventual rally through .9399.The other count is bearish and suggests that an a-b-c flat correction is unfolding from .8753.In either case, price is expected to exceed .9068.
Strategy: Flip to long, against .8653, target TBD
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Commentary: The large 5 wave advance from .6639-.7891 indicates that the larger trend is up but a larger correction is expected before a resumption of the uptrend.The decline from .7891 has yet to even reach the 38.2% level of the previous rally.As such, the decline from .7891-.7435 is most likely just wave A in a larger A-B-C decline.The current rally is wave B.Wave B could exceed .7891 in an expanded flat but we do expect price to eventually come under .7435 and test .7365 (10/22 low).
Strategy:Exit bear position
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “it is possible that the drop completed wave iv of 5 and that one more high (and maybea test of 1.500) will be registered before a more meaningful top is in place.Coming under 1.4723 would suggest that a top is in place at 1.4966.”There is no change as the rally from 1.4814 is in 5 waves, suggesting additional upside potential.
Strategy:Bullish now, against 1.4814, target above 1.5000
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that“wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 107.07.One more low is expected before a larger recovery.A drop below 107.54 may also complete a 5 wave decline from 124.13.”After droppingto 107.21, the USDJPY has rallied strongly.This rally could continue to at least the former 4th wave at 111.75.
Strategy: Bullish, against 107.21, target TBD
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Commentary: As has been the case for some time, the short term pattern in Cable is not too clear.Under the bearish count, the decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle.The rally from 2.0522-2.0844 is wave 2.The decline from 2.0844-2.0504 is wave i of 3 and the up (to 2.0617) down (to 2.0353), up sequence is an expanded flat in wave ii of 3.If this count is correct, then price should remain capped near the confluence of the 61.8% of 2.0844-2.0504 / 11/14 reaction high at 2.0714/32.Wave iii of 3 would be next so under this count the decline will accelerate soon.
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0844, target TBD (much lower)
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Commentary:The USDCHF is in a 5th wave (like the EURUSD) and the recent rally may have been wave iv of 5.As such, one more low is expected before a more meaningful turn.Keep in mind though that recent COT data argues for a turn towards CHF weakness (USDCHF strength).A rally through 1.1176 would argue that a low is already in place.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:Wemaintain that “a big double zigzag is unfolding from the 11/7 low of .905 and that the triangle from last week fits nicely as wave b of the second zigzag.As such, wave C of the zigzag should be underway soon and take price close to where the second zigzag (from .9510) equals the first zigzag (.9055-.9724).This objective is at 1.0179.”
Strategy: Bullush, against .9703, target 1.0150
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Commentary: We are presenting the longer term count since it is possible that the AUDUSD is at a major turning point.From the June 2004 low at .6772, the pair may have completed an ending diagonal as wave 5 of the larger wave 5 bull cycle that began in March 2001.Under this count, a top of significant proportion is in at .9399 and the Aussie is likely to work its way back to at least .6772 in the coming months.
Strategy: Bearish, against .8951, target TBD
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Commentary: The Kiwi has been stuck in a range and based on the pattern that might be developing, this could remain the case.A triangle may be unfolding as wave B within a large A-B-C decline from .7891.Under a triangle interpretation, price is likely to remain in a range for the next day or two before a drop ends near .7364.
Strategy:Bearish, against .7675, target TBD
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