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Commentary:We wrote last week that “bullish objectives are at 1.4912 and 1.4955.In summary, the EURUSD is likely to drop below 1.4800 before wave v challenges the mentioned objectives (1.4912/55). “After rallying to 1.4966 on Friday, the EURUSD fell nearly 200 points.Still, it is possible that the drop completed wave iv of 5 and that one more high (and maybea test of 1.500) will be registered before a more meaningful top is in place.Coming under 1.4723 would suggest that a top is in place at 1.4966.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:Last week, we wrote that “aAs long as price is below 110.58, the favored count places the pair in wave iii of 5.There are objectives concentrated in the 108.00-108.50 range, which is fairly close.JPY pairs though have a tendency to extend in 5th waves so lower levels (and quickly) are a very real possibility.In fact, within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13, wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 107.07.”Wave 3 within the bear cycle from 111.74 ended at 107.54 and the bounce to 108.76 may have completed wave 4.One more low is expected before a larger recovery.A drop below 107.54 may also complete a 5 wave decline from 124.13.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary: As has been the case for some time, the short term pattern in Cable is not too clear.Under the bearish count, the decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle.The rally from 2.0522-2.0844 is wave 2.The decline from 2.0844-2.0504 is wave i of 3 and the up (to 2.0617) down (to 2.0353), up sequence is an expanded flat in wave ii of 3.If this count is correct, then price should remain capped near the confluence of the 61.8% of 2.0844-2.0504 / 11/14 reaction high at 2.0714/32.Wave iii of 3 would be next so under this count the decline will accelerate soon.
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0844, target TBD (much lower)
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Commentary:The USDCHF is in a 5th wave (like the EURUSD) and the recent rally may have been wave iv of 5.As such, one more low is expected before a more meaningful turn.Keep in mind though that recent COT data argues for a turn towards CHF weakness (USDCHF strength).A rally through 1.1176 would argue that a low is already in place.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We maintain that “a big double zigzag is unfolding from the 11/7 low of .905 and that the triangle from last week fits nicely as wave b of the second zigzag.As such, wave C of the zigzag should be underway soon and take price close to where the second zigzag (from .9510) equals the first zigzag (.9055-.9724).This objective is at 1.0179.”
Strategy: Bullush, against .9703, target 1.0150
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Commentary: We are presenting the longer term count since it is possible that the AUDUSD is at a major turning point.From the June 2004 low at .6772, the pair may have completed an ending diagonal as wave 5 of the larger wave 5 bull cycle that began in March 2001.Under this count, a top of significant proportion is in at .9399 and the Aussie is likely to work its way back to at least .6772 in the coming months.
Strategy: Bearish, against .8951, target TBD
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Commentary: The Kiwi has been stuck in a range and based on the pattern that might be developing, this could remain the case.A triangle may be unfolding as wave B within a large A-B-C decline from .7891.Under a triangle interpretation, price is likely to remain in a range for the next day or two before a drop ends near .7364.
Strategy:Bearish, against .7675, target TBD
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Commentary:Having reached our measured objective of 1.4955 the EURUSD has made an abrupt reversal in early London trade and now remains in precarious balance between the longs and shorts. A break of the 1.4850 and further 1.4800 would suggest a failed run at the 1.50 but a take out of the new high at 1.4967 would most likely target 1.50 and beyond
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:The bias in USDJPY continues to the downside, but with MACD showing a divergence in momentum a bounce is due. However the bounce is very much likely to be corrective in nature unless price able to clear 109.50 with conviction. Therefore the preferred strategy would be to reinitiate shorts on any failure of the 38.2 or 61.8 Fib levels.
Strategy: Flat (Short on failure of 109.18 or 110.14 Fibo).
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Commentary: Pound price action continues to paint a bearish picture with the unit failing to com even close to its recent swing high of 2.0850. Failing momentum confirms that that path of least resistance is down
Strategy:
Bearish now, against 2.0844, target TBD (much lower)
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Commentary:The USDCHF is the story of the night as it breaks the psychologically important 1.1000 figure and sets a spike low of 1.0883. The strong rebound since then suggests that the 1.09-1.10 zone will now act a major source of support.
The price action may well try to revisit those levels, but should it hold a move to wards 1.1200 is
likely
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:As we wrote on Wednesday, “It is clear that a triangle is unfolding in the USDCAD, but where does that fit in the larger pattern?
Triangles occur as either 4th waves or B waves and the structure does not favor this as a 4th wave.
However, if a big double zigzag is unfolding from the 11/7 low of .9055, then this triangle fits nicely as wave B of the second zigzag.
As such, wave C of the zigzag should be underway soon and take price close to where the second zigzag (from .9510) equals the first zigzag (.9055-.9724). “ ‘This objective is at 1.0179.
Strategy: Bullush now, against .9703, target 1.0150
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Commentary: The Aussie picture remains overwhelmingly negative with the pair making a series of lower highs. However the near term price structure suggests possible consolidation and bounce
towards the 8850 level which would still preserve the long term
bear bias. A break of 856o however opens the way for further downside price action
Strategy: Sell break of .8758, against .8951, target TBD
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Commentary:We have maintained a bullish stance as the EURUSD is completing a 5th wave rally; BUT the rally may be nearing an end.We wrote yesterday that we favored labeling wave 4 as a triangle (alternation was one reason we favored this count).Bullish objectives are at 1.4912 and 1.4955.The pair has traded to 1.4856 today.One possibility is that wave iii of 5 ended at 1.4853 and that a flat correction is unfolding now in wave iv of 5.This correction should come under 1.4812 at minimum and likely come closer to the 4th wave of one less degree at 1.4770 (38.2% of iii is at 1.4764).In summary, the EURUSD is likely to drop below 1.4800 before wave iv challenges the mentioned objectives (1.4912/55).
Strategy:Exit Bullish position
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Commentary:We were wrong in our preffered count that wave 4 was still in progress towards 112.00+.The USDJPY has broken down and traded below 109.00 this morning.As long as price is below 110.58, the favored count places the pair in wave iii of 5.There are objectives concentrated in the 108.00-108.50 range, which is fairly close.JPY pairs though have a tendency to extend in 5th waves so lower levels (and quickly) are a very real possibility.In fact, within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13, wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 107.07.
Strategy:Flat (Bearish bias warranted below 110.58).
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Commentary: With the EURUSD potentially in for a period of weakness, we are focusing on the bearish count today.Under the bearish count, the decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle.The rally from 2.0522-2.0844 is wave 2.The decline from 2.0844-2.0504 is wave i of 3 and the up (to 2.0617)m down (to 2.0353), up sequence is an expanded flat in wave ii of 3.If this count is correct, then price should remain capped near the confluence of the 61.8% of 2.0844-2.0504 / 11/14 reaction high at 2.0714/32.Wave iii of 3 would be next so under this count the decline will accelerate soon.
Strategy: Bearish now, against 2.0844, target TBD (much lower)
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Commentary:The USDCHF is in a 5th wave (like the EURUSD) but is likely bouncing now in wave iv of 5.A potential end to the bounce from 1.1024 is 1.1115 (38.2% of 1.1261-1.1024).This level intersects with the reaction high from yesterday at 1.1112.Within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.1894, wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.1004 (psychological round number as well).We noted yesterday that the pair is at long term support also, with the 1995 low at 1.1172 and the 2004 low at 1.1286.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:It is clear that a triangle is unfolding in the USDCAD, but where does that fit in the larger pattern?Triangles occur as either 4th waves or B waves and the structure does not favor this as a 4th wave.However, if a big double zigzag is unfolding from the 11/7 low of .9055, then this triangle fits nicely as wave B of the second zigzag.As such, wave C of the zigzag should be underway soon and take price close to where the second zigzag (from .9510) equals the first zigzag (.9055-.9724).This objective is at 1.0179.
Strategy: Bullush now, against .9703, target 1.0150
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Commentary: See yesterday’s commentary for the description of the complex correction that may be unfolding.However, near term price action gives scope to a much more bearish development.With the rally from .8758-.8951 clearly in 3 waves, we must consider the possibility that the action from .9068 is in a series of 1st and 2nd waves.A break below .8758 would signal that a 3rd wave lower is most likely underway.
Strategy: Sell break of .8758, against .8951, target TBD
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Commentary: The Kiwi has been stuck in a range and based on the pattern that might be developing, this could remain the case.A triangle may be unfolding as wave B within a large A-B-C decline from .7891.Under a triangle interpretation, price is likely to fall a bit more towards .7500 before a bounce in wave E of the triangle; then the thrust lower in larger wave C.A bearish stance is warranted against .7675.
Strategy:Bearish now, against .7675, target TBD
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Commentary:We hav maintained a bullish stance as the EURUSD is completing a 5th wave rally.The break above 1.4751 confirms that wave 5 is underway.There are two counts we are following and both are bullish.The first treats wave 4 (within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4015) as 1.4751-1.4520.This has been the favored count recently.The other count treats wave 4 as a triangle.This count is now favored since a triangle in wave 4 satisfies alternation between waves 2 and 4 (2 is a deep correction and 4 is a shallow). Either way, the count is bullish near term.Identifying exactly when wave 5 began helps us estimate when it might end.Wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.4955.This is an intial target.
Strategy:Bullish, move risk to 1.4621 (from 1.4582), target 1.4950
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Commentary:Although 109.77 was taken out, we maintain that 111.76 will be exceeded as the rally from 109.60 proves to be the third leg of a more complex correction from 109.12.The rally likely completes larger wave 4 in the 5 wave bearish cycle from 124.13.The rally from 109.60 would equal the 109.12-111.76 rally at 112.25; this is a potential end point for the rally from 109.60
Strategy:Bullish, against 109.60, target 112.00
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “price is expected near term to exceed 2.0564.Potential resistance is where the rally from 2.0450 would equal the 2.0353-2.0564 rally at 2.0661.”The high today is at 2.0660 but the pair still looks bullish.The next level of resistance would be a reaction high from 11/14 at 1.4732.Still though, we should consider the possibility that the entire decline from 2.1160 is an a-b-c correction that is already complete and that Cable is headed to a new high.A larger bullish outcome is possible as long as price is above 2.0450.The bearish count treats the decline as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.A larger bearish outcome is possible as long as price is below 2.0844.At this point, the pair is in limbo.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:The USDCHF is in a 5th wave (like the EURUSD) but is coming close to a short term bottom.Within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.1894, wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.1004 (psychological round number as well).We noted yesterday that the pair is at long term support also, with the 1995 low at 1.1172 and the 2004 low at 1.1286.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:The USDCAD rally from .9055 has gone without much interruption and may have still more left to the upside near term.Zooming in on the 15 minute chart, the rally from .9703-.9861 is a 5 wave rally, suggesting tha the path remains to the upside.The next level of potential resistance is at the 50% of 1.0866-.9055 at .9961 and the 10/4 high at 1.0015.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: A complex W-X-Y correction may be unfolding, with wave Y underway now.The rally from .8753-.9068 and decline from .9068-.8758 suggests that either a large flat is unfolding (W-X-Y) or that a triangle is unfolding.In the former case, price is expected to exceed .9068 and possibly test .9153 (Fibo).Under the latter interpretation, price is expected to exceed .8995 but remain below .9068.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: The Kiwi is a similar position.The rally from .7435-.7675 was in 3 waves, which suggests that the path is to the downside.However, a more complex correction is possible and even seems likely given the structure in the EURUSD (suggests dollar weakness).A complex correction would be expected to end near .7729.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:Wewrote Friday that “the EURUSD is headed higher in wave 5 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4015.The current rally could be wave 3 within wave 5 and a push above 1.4725 confirms that wave 3 of 5 is underway.An objective is the 161.8% extension of 1.4520-1.4725/1.4582 at 1.4912.This outlook remains favored as long as price is above 1.4582.”There is no change to this outlook.
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.4582, target 1.4912
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Commentary:We wrote Friday that “the best strategy would be to buy dips.It looks like the rally from 109.12-111.76 is in 5 waves.”The decline to 109.77 would be a small a wave under this interpretation.Expectations are for this rally to exceed 111.76 and test 112.42 before price turns down and heads to a new low.The rally likely completes larger wave 4 in the 5 wave bearish cycle from 124.13.
Strategy:Bullish, against 109.77, target 112.40
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Commentary: “The decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is either wave 1 in a 5 wave bearish cycle or wave A in an A-B-C correction.The rally to 2.0844 is wave 2 or B and the decline from 2.0844 is wave 3 or C.The decline from 2.0844 would equal the 2.1160-2.0522 decline at 2.0209, which is the intial bearish objective.”Short term, the rally from 2.0353 to 2.0564 and the dip to 2.0450 completes either an a-b of an a-b-c or a 1-2 of a 1-2-3.Either way, price is expected near term to exceed 2.0564.Potential resistance is where the rally from 2.0450 would equal the 2.0353-2.0564 rally at 2.0661.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:The decline from 1.1894 appears to be in a 5th wave, which is unfolding as a diagonal.Under this interpretation, price is likely to fall a bit more, but in a choppy manner before a bottom and reversal.Worth noting is that the pair is at long term support (the 1995 low is at 1.1172 and the December 2004 low is at 1.1286.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote Friday that “it looks like the USDCAD will extend above .9800.A pullback is expected soon though.The form of that pullback will alert us as to whether or not the USDCAD has put in a multi-month bottom or is headed lower.”After reaching .9886 on Friday, the USDCAD has pulled back a bit, but a deeper correction is expected.The decline and consolidation is likely waves a and b within an a-b-c decline.The support zone should be strong at .9372/.9510
Strategy: Get long near .9372/.9510, against .9055, target much higher
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Commentary: A complex W-X-Y correction may be unfolding, with wave Y underway now.The rally from .8753-.9068 and decline from .9068-.8815 suggest that either a large flat is unfolding (W-X-Y) or that a triangle is unfolding.In the former case, price is expected to exceed .9068 and possibly test .9130.Under the latter interpretation, price is expected to exceed .8995 but remain below .9068.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: The Kiwi is a similar position.The rally from .7435-.7675 was in 3 waves, which suggests that the path is to the downside.However, a more complex correction is possible and even seems likely given the structure in the EURUSD (suggests dollar weakness).A complex correction would be expected to end near .7762.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We presented an alternate yesterday but this morning’s price action suggests that the EURUSD is headed higher in wave 5 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4015.The current rally could be wave 3 within wave 5 and a push above 1.4725 confirms that wave 3 of 5 is underway.An objective is the 161.8% extension of 1.4520-1.4725/1.4582 at 1.4912.This outlook remains favored as long as price is above 1.4582.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the best strategy would be to buy dips.It looks like the rally from 109.12-111.76 is in 5 waves.The decline to 110.36 would be a small 2nd wave under this interpretation.Price could erode a bit more to the 61.8% at 110.14 but a bullish stance is warranted against 109.12”After slipping to 109.77 in Asian hours last night, the USDJPY has rallied impressively in what could be wave c of 4.Expectations are for this rally to exceed 111.76 and test 112.42 before price turns down and heads to a new low.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary: “The decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is either wave 1 in a 5 wave bearish cycle or wave A in an A-B-C correction.The rally to 2.0844 is wave 2 or B and the decline from 2.0844 is wave 3 or C.The decline from 2.0844 would equal the 2.1160-2.0522 decline at 2.0209, which is the intial bearish objective.”Short term, the decline to 2.0353 was most likely a b wave in an a-b-c expanded flat.A rally through 2.0504 satisfies minimum expectations for the rally although price could reach a fibo level at 2.0542.Price must remain below 2.0617 for the bear count to remain favored.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:There is not much of a change from yesterday when we wrote yesterday that “the internal structure of the decline from 1.1299 suggests that there is more to the downside (1.1100?).Still, this decline should bring an end to a larger decline and give way to a sharp rally.”There could be a push through 1.1299 to complete a small correction but lower prices are expected.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “it looks like the USDCAD will extend above .9800.A pullback is expected soon though.The form of that pullback will alert us as to whether or not the USDCAD has put in a multi-month bottom or is headed lower.”It does look like one moe high is expected to complete the rally.A test of .9900is possible before a more significant correction unfolds.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the rally from .8753 is corrective (A-B-C) to this point.However, that can change if price exceeds .9068.Price remained below .9068 and the Aussie has fallen.Unless the pair is in a larger correction (complex W-X-Y), price should continue lower and come under .8753.Maintain a bearish stance against .9015.”The AUDUSD has declined but the complex correction scenario remains very much a possibility.That is the count we are showing today.A potential end to the rally is .9130.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: The Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD.The rally from .7435-.7675 was in 3 waves, which suggests that the path is to the downside.However, a more complex correction is possible and even seems likely given the structure in the EURUSD (suggests dollar weakness).A complex correction would be expected to end near .7762.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:The last few days we have focused on the idea that wave 5 is in progress towards 1.5000.Given that waves 1 and 2 (roman numeral) of 5 could be complete, the bullish count is favored.However, we are proposing an alternate.A larger A-B-C could be unfolding from 1.4751.The rally from 1.4520-1.4724 might be wave B of that correction; meaning that wave C would be underway now.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the USDJPY is very close to the 38.2% and may have reversed at 111.55.A new high (above 111.55) would make the rally from 109.12 in 5 waves and suggest that a larger rebound is underway.Under that scenario, the best strategy would be to buy dips.”It looks like the rally from 109.12-111.76 is in 5 waves.The decline to 110.36 would be a small 2nd wave under this interpretation.Price could erode a bit more to the 61.8% at 110.14 but a bullish stance is warranted against 109.12
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary: We could not have been more wrong yesterday to advocate a bullish stance against 2.0522.Cable has plummeted, and held just above 2.0400.The evidence at this point favors additional losses.The decline from 2.1160-2.0522 is either wave 1 in a 5 wave bearish cycle or wave A in an A-B-C correction.The rally to 2.0844 is wave 2 or B and the decline from 2.0844 is wave 3 or C.The decline from 2.0844 would equal the 2.1160-2.0522 decline at 2.0209, which is the intial bearish objective.
Strategy: Stopped out of Bull position…taking a break from GBPUSD but a bearish position is warranted against 2.0617, target 1 is at 2.0209
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Commentary:There is not much of a change from yesterday when we wrote yesterday that “the internal structure of the decline from 1.1299 suggests that there is more to the downside (1.1100?).Still, this decline should bring an end to a larger decline and give way to a sharp rally.”The only change is that there could be a push through 1.1299 to complete a small correction but lower prices are expected.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the rally does not look complete.A 5th wave within the 5 wave advance from .9236 is required before we can think about getting bearish.Wave 4 may have ended at .9510 so we favor price rallying through .9724 prior to coming under .9510.”The USDCAD just hit our target at .9750.The next level of resistance is at the confluence of the 161.8% extension of .9055-.9404/.9236 at .9799 and the 10/22 high at .9825.At this point, it looks like the USDCAD will extend above .9800.A pullback is expected soon though.The form of that pullback will alert us as to whether or not the USDCAD has put in a multi-month bottom or is headed lower.
Strategy: Profit Target Hit at .9750
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the rally from .8753 is corrective (A-B-C) to this point.However, that can change if price exceeds .9068.”Price remained below .9068 and the Aussie has fallen.Unless the pair is in a larger correction (complex W-X-Y), price should continue lower and come under .8753.Maintain a bearish stance against .9015.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.15.07techs8.gif
Commentary: The Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD.The rally from .7435-.7675 was in 3 waves, which suggests that the path is to the downside.Coming under .7527 instills confidence in the downside.Maintain a bearish bias against .7662.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs9.gif
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the drop to 1.4520 yesterday likely completed wave 4 and price should exceed 1.4751 and test 1.5000 before a larger reversal.”The EURUSD has rallied strongly this morning, blowing through 1.4700 to 1.4713 and there is no reason to change the near term outlook that calls for a new high (above 1.4751).Near term support should be solid at 1.4639.
Strategy:Remain Bullish, move risk to 1.4632 (from 1.4520), target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.14.07techs3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday to “expect this bounce (wave 4) to end near 110.72-111.71 (23.6%-38.2% of 115.91-109.12) before a new low in wave 5.”The USDJPY is very close to the 38.2% and may have reversed at 111.55.A new high (above 111.55) would make the rally from 109.12 in 5 waves and suggest that a larger rebound is underway.Under that scenario, the best strategy would be to buy dips.At this point, the best thing to do is sell bounces against 111.55 for a test of the 108/109 objective that we have focused on recently.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.14.07techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the form of the decline was still corrective (3 waves…A-B-C).As such, expect a new high above 2.1160 in coming weeks.”The up-down sequence from 2.0522 to 2.0844 to 2.0643 may be waves 1 and 2 of a new 5 wave bullish cycle that will eventually lead to a rally through 2.1160.Given the proximity of the swing low at 2.0522, reward to risk favors bulls.The 61.8% at 2.0645 should hold.
Strategy: Remain Bullish, against 2.0522, target above 2.1160
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.14.07techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the USDCHF reached 1.1299 but the correction seems shallow.Subjectively speaking, we favor a larger advance towards 1.1328 (former congestion as well) before a drop below 1.1188.”We were wrong to favor a larger correction because the pair has dropped to a new low.The internal structure of the decline from 1.1299 suggests that there is more to the downside (1.1100?).Still, this decline should bring an end to a larger decline and give way to a sharp rally.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.14.07techs6.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the rally does not look complete.A 5th wave within the 5 wave advance from .9236 is required before we can think about getting bearish.”Wave 4 may have ended at .9510 so we favor price rallying through .9724 prior to coming under .9510.
Strategy: Remain Bullish, against.9404, target .9750
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.14.07techs7.gif
Commentary: The rally from .8753 is corrective (A-B-C) to this point.However, that can change if price exceeds .9068.In that instance, it would possible that the Aussie has traced out a series of 1st and 2nd waves.As long as price is above .8875, this bullish scenario is possible.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.14.07techs8.gif
Commentary: The rally through .7663 indicates that the entire decline was likely a correction and that a new high will be registered. As long as price is above.7527, the favored view is that the NZDUSD is in a 3rd wave higher within the 5 wave bull cycle from .7435.Cooming under .7527 negates the bullish bias.
Strategy:Bullish against .7527, target above .7891
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Commentary:We wrote last week to expect “a larger correction that could reach 1.4434 before a new high in wave 5.”The next good opportunity comes on buying the expected wave 4 dip near 1.4500, for a run to 1.5000.”The drop to 1.4520 yesterday likely completed wave 4 and price should exceed 1.4751 and test 1.5000 before a larger reversal.
Strategy:Bullish against 1.4520, target TBD
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Commentary:We have focused on “the 161.8% extension of 117.92-113.24/115.89 is at 108.30, which is an initial bearish objective.Coming under 111.59 reinforces the bearish bias.”The drop from 115.91 reached 109.12 (roughly to the 161.8% extension), maiking it likely that the drop was wave 3 within the 5 wave cycle from 117.93.Expect this bounce (wave 4) to end near 110.72-111.71 (23.6%-38.2% of 115.91-109.12) before a new low in wave 5.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary: We wrote last week that “this could be just a large wave 4 correction, but we still expect a decline to the confluence of the 38.2% / former congestion area near 2.0800 (2.0817 to be exact).Wave 5 potential would then come to the forefront, and lead to a test of the Fibo target at 2.1240 (and maybe higher).”Well, the decline was much deeper than expected but the form of the decline was still corrective (3 waves…A-B-C).As such, expect a new high above 2.1160 in coming weeks.Preferably, price remains above 2.0646.
Strategy: Bullish, against 2.0522, target above 2.1160
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Commentary:We wrote last week to expect “a 4th wave correction towards Fibo resistance at 1.1328/1.1415 (23.6-38.2% of 1.1785-1.1257).A new low in wave 5 is expected to complete the larger decline following this corrective advance.”The USDCHF reached 1.1299 but the correction seems shallow.Subjectively speaking, we favor a larger advance towards 1.1328 (former congestion as well) before a drop below 1.1188.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.13.07techs6.gif
Commentary:Last week, we wrote that “a large correction is unfolding in the 4th wave position towards the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.0866-.9055 / former congestion near .9750 before the USDCAD reverses and drops below .9000.”The rally hit .9724 yesterday and the USDCAD has come off nearly 200 pips since.However, the rally does not look complete.A 5th wave within the 5 wave advance from .9236 is required before we can think about getting bearish.
Strategy: Remain Bullish, move risk to .9404 (from .9236), target .9750
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.13.07techs7.gif
Commentary: We wrote last week that “is our contention that price will drop below .9106 before the Aussie finds good demand.The pattern is unfolding as expected so favor the downside until at least a break below .9106.”After plummeting below .8800, the AUDUSD found solid support at the former 4th wave.Still, it appears that one more low (below .8753) is required before we’ll see a larger rally.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.13.07techs8.gif
Commentary: Kiwi fell to the 161.8% extension of .7891-.7663-.7821.The pair is at a crossroads right now though.A drop below .7435 would make 5 waves from .7891 and give way to a larger upward correction.A rally through .7663 indicates that the entire decline was just a correction and that a new high will be registered soon.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs9.gif
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “a slight new high (above 1.4731) can not be ruled out before the larger correction takes place but to expect a 4th wave correction that could reach 1.4434 before a new high in wave 5.”That small correction may be underway now as the pair has traded down from 1.4751.Still, the next good opportunity comes on buying the expected wave 4 dip near 1.4500, for a run to 1.5000.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.09.07techs3.gif
Commentary:“The 161.8% extension of 117.92-113.24/115.89 is at 108.30, which is an initial bearish objective.Coming under 111.59 reinforces the bearish bias.”We wrote yesterday that “a small 4th wave (of larger 3) may be unfolding.The corrective rally should be near its terminus as the rally has reached the 38.2% retrace of wave iii and a former congestion area at 113.39.”The top yesterday was at 113.37 and the USDJPY finds itself over 200 pips lower now.Expect a larger 4th wave correction before the drop to the 108.00 area.
Strategy: Take profit here (we’ll look to short again on a wave 4 bounce)
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Commentary: Is this a top of significant proportion?We wrote yesterday that the “resistance line from the longer term bull channel is just above 2.1100 and that our objective was at 2.1240 (Fibo extension).This could be just a large wave 4 correction, but we still expect a decline to the confluence of the 38.2% / former congestion area near 2.0800 (2.0817 to be exact).Wave 5 potential would then come to the forefront, and lead to a test of the Fibo target at 2.1240 (and maybe higher).
Strategy: Get bearish near 2.1039, against 2.1160, target 2.0850
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.09.07techs5.gif
Commentary:The USDCHF is in the same exact position as the EURUSD (but inverse).A third wave is either over at 1.1188 or close to over and a 4th wave correction is unfolding now towards Fibo resistance at 1.1328/1.1415 (23.6-38.2% of 1.1785-1.1257).A new low in wave 5 is expected to complete the larger decline following this corrective advance.
Strategy:Flat (bearish objective hit at 1.1350)
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Commentary:We maintain that a large correction is unfolding in the 4th wave position towards the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.0866-.9055 / former congestion near .9750 before the USDCAD reverses and drops below .9000.A more bullish reversal may be unfolding though.Still, the .9750 area should provide some resistance.The advance from .9236 is either a 3rd wave or wave c of a correction.
Strategy: Bullish against .9236, target .9750
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “with the rally from .9106-.9400 in just 3 waves and with the decline from .9400 appearing impulsive, evidence favors labeling the down, up, down sequence from .9342-.9106-.9400 as an expanded flat, with wave C of that flat currently in progress.As such, it is our contention that price will drop below .9106 before the Aussie finds good demand.”The pattern is unfolding as expected so favor the downside until at least a break below .9106.
Strategy: Bearish, move risk to .9329 (from .9400), target TBD (below .9106)
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Commentary: Kiwi looks rather bearish now and we mentioned yesterday that we were nervous about the bullish stance with this pair because of the clear bearish pattern that was unfolding in the Aussie.The decline from .7891 is unfolding as either an a-b-c or the beginning of an impulse.Either way, expect a drop below .7663 and test of .7592 (where c = a).
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday to “expect a small 4th wave correction that could reach 1.4434 before a new high in wave 5.”That small correction may be underway now as the pair has traded down from 1.4731.A slight new high (above 1.4731) can not be ruled out before the larger correction takes place.Still, the next good opportunity comes on buying the expected wave 4 dip near 1.4500, for a run to 1.5000.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.08.07techs3.gif
Commentary:“The 161.8% extension of 117.92-113.24/115.89 is at 108.30, which is an initial bearish objective.Coming under 111.59 reinforces the bearish bias.”Near term, a small 4th wave (of larger 3) may be unfolding.The corrective rally should be near its terminus as the rally has reached the 38.2% retrace of wave iii and a former congestion area at 113.39.
Strategy: Remain bearish, move risk to 114.78 ( from 115.41), target 1 at 108.30
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Commentary: A resistance line from the longer term bull channel is just above 2.1100.If the bullish count that treats the entire rally from 2.0245 as wave iii of 3 is correct, then price could test the 161.8% extension of 1.9879-2.0494/2.0245 at 2.1240 fairly soon.Similar to the EURUSD in form, we would then expect a correction in wave 4, followed by a new high in wave 5 (2.1500??).
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:The USDCHF is in the same exact position as the EURUSD (but inverse).A third wave is either over at 1.1257 or close to over and a 4th wave correction is unfolding now towards Fibo resistance at 1.1458 (38.2% of 1.1785-1.1257).A new low in wave 5 is expected to complete the larger decline following this corrective advance.
Strategy:Flat (bearish objective hit at 1.1350)
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “a bearish objective for the end of wave 3 in the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.1875 is at .8986.With the low today at .9055, the potential for a corrective rally to begin rather soon is high.”The rally has started and we expect the advance to continue until the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.0866-.9055 / former congestion near .9750 before the USDCAD reverses and drops below .9000.
Strategy: Flat (EURCAD looks like a good play….long)
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Commentary: With the rally from .9106-.9400 in just 3 waves and with the decline from .9400 appearing impulsive, evidence favors labeling the down, up, down sequence from .9342-.9106-.9400 as an expanded flat, with wave C of that flat currently in progress.As such, it is our contention that price will drop below .9106 before the Aussie finds good demand.
Strategy: Bearish now, against .9400, target TBD (below .9106)
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “Kiwi’s break above .7738 opens up the possibility that the NZDUSD is in a 3rd wave to much higher levels.This seems odd given that the other dollar pairs suggest at least a small correction prior to the continuation of the weak dollar trend but it is the strucutre that we see as a possible outcome.If this is the pattern unfolding, then the rally is likely to continue while price remains above .7568.”This was one of the pair we were correct about as the NZDUSD has rallied through .7800.An objective is at the 161.8% extension of .7365-.7738/.7568 at .8172.This outlook is complicated by the bearish pattern in the Aussie.Still, maintain a bullish stance against .7568.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs9.gif
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the EURUSD is in a 3rd wave and a 4th and 5th are required before any meaningful top is in place.An objective is the 161.8% extension of 1.4015-1.4349/1.4125 at 1.4666.”The pair has exceeded this level and tested 1.4700.Still, expect a small 4th wave correction that could reach 1.4434 before a new high in wave 5.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We maintained a bearish bias 115.41 but did present an alternate count that would be in favored is 115.41 was exceeded.115.41 was not exceeded and wave 3 down has accelerated.The 161.8% extension of 117.92-113.24/115.89 is at 108.30, which is an initial bearish objective.Coming under 111.59 reinforces the bearish bias.
Strategy: Remain bearish, against 115.41, target below 111.59
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Commentary: The larger correction that we were looking for prior to a test of 2.1000 did not happen as Cable has gone through 2.1000 already.Yesterday, we wrote about “the longer term bull channel near 2.1100 and that a bullish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 1.9651-2.0366/1.9879 at 2.1035.”Price is right at the mentioned Fibonacci objective and the top of the channel is at 2.1108 today.Expect a test of the channel soon.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.07.07techs5.gif
Commentary:As expected, the USDCHF has plummeted.We wrote yesterday that “price could extend as low as the 161.8% extension of 1.1894-1.1599/1.1785 at 1.1308.”Weakness has extended beyond there as the USDCHF has dropped below the 2004 low at 1.1287. The next potential support/bearish objective is the 1995 low at 1.1172.
Strategy:Flat (bearish objective hit at 1.1350)
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Commentary:The USDCAD has plummeted….again.We wrote about the 8 consecutive down weeks yesterday (this week will make it 10 if the pair closes down again) as well as the longer term channel (broken) as well as weekly RSI at 15 (now at 10), but fresh modern lows continue to be made.From an EW perspective, a bearish objective for the end of wave 3 in the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.1875 is at .8986.With the low today at .9055, the potential for a corrective rally to begin rather soon is high.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: The Aussie blew through went through our stop and the rally from .9156 may be a third wave within the 5 wave bull cycle from .9106.The rally from .9156 has hit the 161.8% extension of .9106-.9248/.9156 at .9386.Expect a small 4th wave correction to be followed by a new high (above .9397).Near term support is at .9354.
Strategy: flat
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “Kiwi’s break above .7738 opens up the possibility that the NZDUSD is in a 3rd wave to much higher levels.This seems odd given that the other dollar pairs suggest at least a small correction prior to the continuation of the weak dollar trend but it is the strucutre that we see as a possible outcome.If this is the pattern unfolding, then the rally is likely to continue while price remains above .7568.”This was one of the pair we were correct about as the NZDUSD has rallied through .7800.An objective is at the 161.8% extension of .7365-.7738/.7568 at .8172.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:1.4500 has been exceeded, much easier that we thought possible.Trying to find a workable count for the entire rally 1.3360 has proven difficult.Initially, we expected an extended fifth wave and in hindsight, we should have remained with that count.The expanded flat count is still possible though and both counts end with price working higher near term, with support at 1.4443.The extended 5th interpretation is shown today.Under this count, the EURUSD is in a 3rd wave and a 4th and 5th are required before any meaningful top is in place.An objective is the 161.8% extension of 1.4015-1.4349/1.4125 at 1.4666.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-06-07techs3.gif
Commentary:While a cautious bearish bias remains warranted against 115.41, the decline from there is not typical of a 3rd wave at this point so we are discussing an alternate count.That alternate places the USDJPY in a complex (W-X-Y) correction from 113.24, with wave Y of the correction underway now towards 115.91.A push through 115.91 satisfies minimum expectations for the advance, and resistance is at the 61.8% and 78.6% levels of 117.93-113.24 at 116.14 and 116.93.
Strategy: Remain bearish, against 115.41, target below 111.59
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Commentary: Near term, we are still looking for a larger correction in wave iv of 3 before a wave iv advance unfolds towards the top of the longer term bull channel near 2.1100 (see Cable Higher for more).We expect small wave iv to end near 2.0753.Near term, a bullish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 1.9651-2.0366/1.9879 at 2.1035.
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0895, target 2.0760
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Commentary:There is no change to our call for lower prices.Ultimately, price could extend as low as the 161.8% extension of 1.1894-1.1599/1.1785 at 1.1308.”Wave iii of 5 remains underway although it may be nearing an end.Near term, 1.1557 should provide resistance as wave iv of 5 unfolds.
Strategy:Remain Bearish, against 1.1640, target 1.1350
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Commentary:We are showing yesterday’s long term chart and analysisas we believe it presents a strong case for a near term bounce.“Historically, 8 weeks in a row in one direction tends to lead to at least a sizeable move in the other direction.The red dots on the chart above signal 8 consecutive down weeks, which has occurred the last two weeks.This combined with parallel channel support and weekly RSI at 12 suggests that a low will form soon.”
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: We expect price to begin dropping, from near current levels, and come under .9106.The decline from .9342 looks is an impulse and the advance is corrective (and looks close to complete).Wave c would equal wave a at .9298, which is just above current price.
Strategy: Bearish now, against .9370, target below .9106
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Commentary: Kiwi’s break above .7738 opens up the possibility that the NZDUSD is in a 3rd wave to much higher levels.This seems odd given that the other dollar pairs suggest at least a small correction prior to the continuation of the weak dollar trend but it is the strucutre that we see as a possible outcome.If this is the pattern unfolding, then the rally is likely to continue while price remains above .7568.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:1.4500 is an important psychological level and it is possible that 5 waves higher from 1.4135 and 1.3360 are complete.At the very least, a return to short term support at 1.4404 is expected.RSI on the weekly and daily charts is overbought and divergent, indicating potential for a top and reversal.
Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:We wrote last week to “expect a spike through 115.14 and possibly a test of the 61.8% of 115.91-114.46 at 115.36 before the next leg lower begins.”The spike ended at 115.41 in what we are treating as wave ii within a new 5 wave bear cycle from 115.91.Wave iii lower is underway and the bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 114.81.Look for the decline to accelerate.
Strategy: Remain bearish, move risk to 115.41 (from 117.10), target below 111.59
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.05.07techs4.gif
Commentary: We have been focusing on the bullish trend channel whose resistance line is near 2.10/2.11.Cable tested 2.0900 (2.0895) Friday. While a test of 2.1000/2.1100 remains possible, it does appear that the decline from 2.0895 is in 5 waves, therefore we expect at least one more similar decline.Short term resistance is at 2.0829.
Strategy: Get bearish near 2.0829, against 2.0895, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-02-07techs5.gif
Commentary:There is no change to our call for lower prices.Ultimately, price could extend as low as the 161.8% extension of 1.1894-1.1599/1.1785 at 1.1308.”Wave iii of 5 is underway now and the larger bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.1785.Short term, price below 1.1640 keeps the bearish bias intact.Until we see a 5 wave rally to signal a turn, we wll remain bearish.
Strategy:Bearish, against 1.1640, target 1.1350
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.05.07techs6.gif
Commentary:We maintain that the USDCAD is getting very close to a bottom.Historically, 8 weeks in a row in one direction tends to lead to at least a sizeable move in the other direction.The red dots on the chart above signal 8 consecutive down weeks, which has occurred the last two weeks.This combined with parallel channel support and weekly RSI at 12 suggests that a low will form soon.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.05.07techs7.gif
Commentary:The Aussie is turning lower.It appears that the first leg of an extended down move is over at .9106 and that the rally from .9106 is a correction of the decline.Resistance at the 61.8% of .9342-.9106 at .9252 has held so far.Coming under .9106 instills confidence in the bearish bias.
Strategy: Sell break of .9106, against wave ii high (that would be .9248 at this point), target TBD (it will be a measured objective…probably near .8750)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11.05.07techs8.gif
Commentary: The NZDUSD is in a similar situation to that of the AUDUSD.A first leg lower in a bigger bearish move is complete at .7568 and the rally from there is a correction of the decline.The rally has stalled at the 61.8% of .7737-.7568 but the bearish bias is intact as long as price is below .7737.Expect the next bear leg to test at least .7365.
Strategy:Bearish now, against .7738, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs9.gif
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Commentary:Yesterday, we wrote that “the appearance of 5 waves up from 1.4125 along with this morning’s decline suggest that a top may be in place at 1.4503.1.4500 is an important psychological level.At the very least, a return to short term support at 1.4374 is expected, but this is likely a more significant top that will see a return to 1.4125 (4th wave of 2 larger degrees).”The EURUSD fell in what looks like a small 5 waves but the pair has bounced back.We are viewing the decline and bounce as waves a and b in a larger a-b-c correction.We expect the next move to be down in wave c towards 1.4374 (but again…a deeper decline is possible).
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-02-07techs3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that we expected a reversal as it appeared that wave within an a-b-c advance from 113.24 was complete.The reversal did occur and a smaller correction is now unfolding.Expect a spike through 115.14 and possibly a test of the 61.8% of 115.91-114.46 at 115.36 before the next leg lower begins.
Strategy: Bearish now, against 117.10, target below 111.59
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-02-07techs4.gif
Commentary: There is no reason to change our call for a test of the trend channel near 2.1000/2.1100.The larger bullish trend is strong as long as price is above 2.0258 but short term support is at 2.0689.A rally through 2.0873 would potentially complete 5 waves from 2.0426 and give way to a correction back towards 2.0753.That would offer an opportunity to get bullish for a run to 2.10/2.11.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-02-07techs5.gif
Commentary:There is no change to our call for lower prices.Ultimately, price could extend as low as the 161.8% extension of 1.1894-1.1599/1.1785 at 1.1308.”Wave iii of 5 is underway now and the larger bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.1785.Short term, price below 1.1640 keeps the bearish bias intact.
Strategy:Bearish, move risk to 1.1640 (from 1.1894), target 1.1350
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-02-07techs6.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the USDCAD is getting very close to a bottom….a new low (below .9413) would satisfy minimum expectations for the decline.”The USDCAD held above .9413 but it is possible that a low is in place.We say this because the advance from .9413 does resemble 5 waves (albeit ugly ones) up.A correction has followed and the pair has held near the 61.8% of .9413-.9521 at .9454.A rally through .9521 warrants a bullish bias against .9413.
Strategy: Bullish on rally through .9521, against .9413, target TBD (we’ll assess bullish potential as the rally unfolds)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-02-07techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the Aussie looks like it to is close to a turn.The rally from .7673 is in its 5th wave (which is from .8750).Similarly, the rally from .8750 appears to be in its 5th wave (so we have a 5th of a 5th).A slight new high (above .9342) is not out of the question but the next large move is likely to be down to at least .8750.”It appears that the first leg of that move is over and that the rally from .9106 is a correction of the decline.Potential resistance is at the 61.8% of .9342-.9106 at .9252.
Strategy: Sell break of .9106, against wave ii high (that would be .9219 at this point), target TBD (it will be a measured objective)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-02-07techs8.gif
Commentary: Yesterday, we wrote that “unless the Kiwi rally is ending as a truncated 5th, we expect price to exceed .7738 soon and probably .7785 before a deeper correction unfolds.”Well, the rally did end as a truncated 5th wave, which indicates a weak structure.Expect a deep retracement of the .6639-.7738 rally, potentially to the 61.8% at .7092, but to at least .7365.
Strategy:Bearish on break of .7568, against .7738, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs9.gif
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Commentary:The appearance of 5 waves up from 1.4125 along with this morning’s decline suggest that a top may be in place at 1.4503.1.4500 is an important psychological level.At the very least, a return to short term support at 1.4374 is expected, but this is likely a more significant top that will see a return to 1.4125 (4th wave of 2 larger degrees).Evidence that this could be a more significant top includes the fact that the EURUSD just rallied 7 days in a row (this is rare…and previous instances indicated tops of at least a few figures), and overbought/ divergent daily RSI.Still, there is no sign of a 5 wave decline yet so be careful if attempting to short.
Strategy:Exit bullish position
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY has reached the level that we felt would offer resistance and a top.The levels in question are the 100% extension of 113.24-115.04/113.76 at 115.56, the 50% retrace of 117.93-113.24 at the same level, and the former 4th wave at 115.72.Today’s high (to this point) is at 115.73 so we do expect a top and reversal soon.The next level of potential resistance is the 61.8% retrace at 116.14.Coming under 115.18 instills confidence in the bearish outlook.
Strategy: Bearish now, against 117.10, target below 111.59
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs4.gif
Commentary: We continue to focus on the weekly bullish channel as the short term structure is unclear.Various resistance lines are clustered around 2.1000 and 2.1100.The larger bullish trend is strong as long as price is above 2.0258.Short term support is at an intraday reaction low from yesterday at 2.0689.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “with 5 waves down now from 1.1785, look for resistance in the 1.1671 area for an opportunity to get short against 1.1894.Ultimately, price could extend as low as the 161.8% extension of 1.1894-1.1599/1.1785 at 1.1308.”There is no change to this outlook as wave c of a correction appears to be unfolding now.
Strategy:Look to get bearish close to 1.1671, against 1.1894, target 1.1350
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs6.gif
Commentary:“The sentiment indicators that we follow (COT in particular) argue for a bottom to form now (but this has been the case for a while).When a market is extending for some time, we use a trick to try to attempt to identify when a market is likely to turn.Extended impulses will end after either 9 waves, 13 waves, 17 waves, etc (these are all derivations of 5 waves…..5 + 4, 5 + 4 + 4, 5 + 4 + 4 + 4).The current decline is likely wave 13, which should end with one more low (below .9511).Once a low is registered, a small 5 wave rally will serve as our alert to get bullish.”The USDCAD is getting very close to a bottom….a new low (below .9413) would satisfy minimum expectations for the decline.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs7.gif
Commentary:The Aussie looks like it to is close to a turn.The rally from .7673 is in its 5th wave (which is from .8750).Similarly, the rally from .8750 appears to be in its 5th wave (so we have a 5th of a 5th).A slight new high (above .9342) is not out of the question but the next large move is likely to be down to at least .8750.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs8.gif
Commentary: Unless the Kiwi rally is ending as a truncated 5th, we expect price to exceed .7738 soon and probably .7785 before a deeper correction unfolds.This would make 5 waves up from .6639…which completes large wave 1 in a new 5 wave bull cycle.A deep setback would then be expected to at least .7365 (likely lower) before wave 3 higher unfolds.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/11/dailyfx_reports/Techs/11-01-07techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-31-07techs2.gif
Commentary:Wave 5 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3360 is underway.Wave 5 may have started at 1.4125 and here is why.An extremely rare pattern called a running flat may be wave 4.In a running flat, wave b exceeds the origin of wave a, but wave c does not even reach the terminus of wave a.This pattern occurs in markets that are so bullish that the correction does not even complete.This information, combined with the facts that 5th waves in currency markets tend to extend and that the sentiment indicators we follow are not extreme, favors continued gains in the EURUSD.Short term support is at 1.4374.
Strategy:Remain bullish, move risk to 1.4279 (from 1.4188), Target TBD.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-31-07techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY is playing out as expected.It is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is unfolding.“Look for resistance at 115.56 (100% extension of 113.24-115.04/113.76…this is also close to the former 4th wave at 115.72) and the 61.8% of 117.93-113.24 at 116.14.Once we see evidence of a top, we will be getting aggressively bearish (and we’ll let you know here).”The USDJPY is close to its objective (115.50) so look for a top and reversal today.
Strategy: Get short close to 115.50, against 117.00, target below 111.59
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-31-07techs4.gif
Commentary: The short term structure in the GBPUSD has been unclear for some time.Given that the EURUSD remains bullish and that the GBPUSD remains within its weekly bullish channel, a bullish bias is warranted for a potential test of the resistance trendline near 2.1000/2.1100.The alternate count treats the entire rally from 1.9651 as a large B wave, but without a 5 wave decline visible there is no reason to fade this rally.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-31-07techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrong in the bullish stance yesterday as the USDCHF did make a new low (below 1.1564).With 5 waves down now from 1.1785, look for resistance in the 1.1671 area for an opportunity to get short against 1.1894.The 5th wave that we had thought ended at 1.1599 is extending and is in just its 3rd wave.Ultimately, price could extend as low as the 161.8% extension of 1.1894-1.1599/1.1785 at 1.1308.
Strategy:Taken out of bullish position…look to get bearish close to 1.1671, against 1.1894, target 1.1350
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-31-07techs6.gif
Commentary:“The sentiment indicators that we follow (COT in particular) argue for a bottom to form now (but this has been the case for a while).When a market is extending for some time, we use a trick to try to attempt to identify when a market is likely to turn.Extended impulses will end after either 9 waves, 13 waves, 17 waves, etc (these are all derivations of 5 waves…..5 + 4, 5 + 4 + 4, 5 + 4 + 4 + 4).The current decline is likely wave 13, which should end with one more low (below .9511).Once a low is registered, a small 5 wave rally will serve as our alert to get bullish.”The USDCAD is getting very close to a bottom….a new low (below .9511) would satisfy minimum expectations for the decline.Weekly pivot support is at .9441.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-31-07techs7.gif
Commentary:Bigger picture, the rally from .7673 is in its 5th wave, indicating that an important top is about to form and that price should come back to at least .8750 (but the potential for a much more significant top is high).Within the 5th of the 5th (from .8750), it appears that one more high is required (above .9271) before a reversal will occur.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-31-07techs8.gif
Commentary: A rally is likely exceed .7738 soon and probably .7785 before a deeper correction unfolds.This would make 5 waves up from .6639…which completes large wave 1 in a new 5 wave bull cycle.A deep setback would then be expected to at least .7365 (likely lower) before wave 3 higher unfolds.
Strategy:Flat
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-30.07techs2.gif
Commentary:If indeed an ending diagonal is unfolding from 1.4015, then wave iv of the diagonal should be underway now.A potential end for wave iv is at the 50%/61.8% retrace levels of 1.4125-1.4439 at 1.4282 and 1.4245.A new high in wave v of the diagonal is expected to then complete the diagonal.If a more bullish structure is unfolding, then price will exceed 1.4439 before coming under 1.4279.That would make the rally from 1.4125 an impulse but a correction lower would be expected to unfold.(Diagonal scenario shown on chart)
Strategy:Remain bullish, move risk to 1.4279 (from 1.4188), Target TBD.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-30.07techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY is playing out as expected.It is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is unfolding.“Look for resistance at 115.56 (100% extension of 113.24-115.04/113.76…this is also close to the former 4th wave at 115.72) and the 61.8% of 117.93-113.24 at 116.14.Once we see evidence of a top, we will be getting aggressively bearish (and we’ll let you know here).”
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-30.07techs4.gif
Commentary: The short term structure in the GBPUSD has been unclear for some time.Given that the EURUSD remains bullish and that the GBPUSD remains within its weekly bullish channel, a bullish bias is warranted for a potential test of the resistance trendline near 2.1000/2.1100.However, the alternate count treats the entire rally from 1.9651 as a large B wave, so be careful if attempting to play a breakout as the pair is testing the July high (2.0654) this morning.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-30.07techs5.gif
Commentary:We maintain that the drop below 1.1623 completed 5 waves down from 1.2468 and that a large rally is underway.Wave c within an a-b-c decline from 1.1785 may be complete at 1.1606 since it appears that a small 5 wave rally has unfolded from 1.1606 (this 5 up is considered wave i of 3).A rally through 1.1671 instills confidence in the larger bullish outlook.1.1606 is critical to the bullish bias.
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.1606, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-30.07techs6.gif
Commentary:The sentiment indicators that we follow (COT in particular) argue for a bottom to form now (but this has been the case for a while).When a market is extending for some time, we use a trick to try to attempt to identify when a market is likely to turn.Extended impulses will end after either 9 waves, 13 waves, 17 waves, etc (these are all derivations of 5 waves…..5 + 4, 5 + 4 + 4, 5 + 4 + 4 + 4).The current decline is likely wave 13, which should end with one more low (below .9511).Once a low is registered, a small 5 wave rally will serve as our alert to get bullish.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10.03.07techs7.gif
Commentary:Bigger picture, the rally from .7673 is in its 5th wave, indicating that an important top is about to form and that price should come back to at least .8750 (but the potential for a much more significant top is high).Within the 5th of the 5th (from .8750), it appears that one more high is required (above .9271) before a reversal will occur.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-30.07techs8.gif
Commentary: A rally is likely exceed .7738 soon and probably .7785 before a deeper correction unfolds.This would make 5 waves up from .6639…which completes large wave 1 in a new 5 wave bull cycle.A deep setback would then be expected to at least .7365 (likely lower) before wave 3 higher unfolds.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10.03.07techs9.gif
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-29-07techs2.gif
Commentary:The ending diagonal scenario that we proposed appears to be unfolding.The rally from 1.4125 is wave iii of the diagonal and is likely to push a bit further so that it is longer than wave i of the diagonal.Waves i and iii would equal each other at 1.4458.The 161.8% exstension is at 1.4664.Downside potential at this point looks limited as wave iv of the diagonal will be the next downside action and that will be followed by wave iv higher to complete the advance.In summary, the short term trend remains up as long as price is above 1.4125 but the rally from here could be choppy.
Strategy:Remain bullish, against 1.4188, Target TBD.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-29-07techs3.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the USDJPY as we believe that a larger correction is unfolding from113.24.It is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is due unless the decline is extending.Look for resistance at 115.56 (100% extension of 113.24-115.04/113.76…this is also close to the former 4th wave at 115.72) and the 61.8% of 117.93-113.24 at 116.14.Once we see evidence of a top, we will be getting aggressively bearish (and we’ll let you know here).Very short term traders might try and trade this small c wave higher with risk at 113.76.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-29-07techs4.gif
Commentary: The short term structure in the GBPUSD has been unclear for some time.Given that the EURUSD remains bullish and that the GBPUSD remains within its weekly bullish channel, a bullish bias is warranted for a potential test of the resistance trendline near 2.1000/2.1100.However, the alternate count treats the entire rally from 1.9651 as a large B wave, so be careful if attempting to play a breakout.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-29-07techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote Friday that “we maintain that the drop below 1.1623 completed 5 waves down from 1.2468 and that a large rally is underway.Wave c within an a-b-c decline from 1.1785 may be complete (or close to it) as price is testing the 78.6% of 1.1599-1.1785 at 1.1639.A rally through 1.1703 instills confidence in the larger bullish outlook.”The USDCHF has turned higher this morning and there is no change to the outlook.
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-29-07techs6.gif
Commentary:The structure of the decline from .9734 looks like a larger B wave.The individual legs of the decline are all in 3 waves and the decline itself is in 3 waves.If this is a B wave, then price is likely to exceed .9734 before bearish potential comes to the forefront.There is the possibility that this is a more significant low as well but there is no evidence of a turn yet.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:We wrote last week that “the rally appears to be in just the 3rd wave within the 5th so the AUDUSD should continue to extend higher.”Wave iii of 5 likely ended at .9271 and the decline is the beginning of wave iv within the 5 wave rally from .8750.As such, we do expect a new high in wave v (although this wave iv correction should take at least a few days).The support zone is the 23.6%-38.2% of .8935-.9271 at .9192 and .9143.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-29-07techs8.gif
Commentary: We presented the bullish count yesterday, which suggested that “a rally is likely to accelerate in a small 3rd wave.Price above .7467 keeps the trend pointed higher. Coming under this level triggers the bearish count.”Kiwi’s rally has continued and like the AUDUSD, a small wave iv correction should play out above .7601.The Fibo support zone is .7635/74.Eventually, we expect a new high (above .7738…likely with .7601 remaining intact).
Strategy:Flat
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http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-26-07techs2.gif
Commentary:The ending diagonal scenario that we proposed might be unfolding.The rally from 1.4125 is wave iii of the diagonal and is either close to topping or will continue to push higher.Downside potential at this point looks limited as wave iv of the diagonal will be the next downside action and that will be followed by wave iv higher to complete the advance.In summary, the short term trend remains up as long as price is above 1.4125 but the rally from here could be choppy.
Strategy:Remain bullish, against 1.4188, Target TBD.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-26-07techs3.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the USDJPY as we believe that a larger correction is unfolding from113.24.It is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is due unless the decline is extending.Look for resistance at 115.56 (100% extension of 113.24-115.04/113.76…this is also close to the former 4th wave at 115.72) and the 61.8% of 117.93-113.24 at 116.14.Once we see evidence of a top, we will be getting aggressively bearish (and we’ll let you know here).Very short term traders might try and trade this small c wave higher with risk at 113.76.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-26-07techs4.gif
Commentary: In typical Cable fashion, the pair broke through the top of the recent range this morning (2.0550) and traded to 2.0573 before reversing lower.The entire rally from 2.0426 looks corrective, indicating that the rally could be a diagonal.In fact, the entire rally from 1.9651 looks corrective as the waves overlap.Again, this reinforces what we have held for weeks, which is that everything from 2.0654 is a big correction.The 3rd wave (wave c) of the correction is about to begin and should be an impulse (fast decline), soa bearish bias is warranted against 2.0654
Strategy: Bearish now, against 2.0654, target TBD (below 1.9651)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-26-07techs5.gif
Commentary:We maintain that the drop below 1.1623 completed 5 waves down from 1.2468 and that a large rally is underway.Wave c within an a-b-c decline from 1.1785 may be complete (or close to it) as price is testing the 78.6% of 1.1599-1.1785 at 1.1639.A rally through 1.1703 instills confidence in the larger bullish outlook.
Strategy:Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-26-07techs6.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday to “look for support in the .9516/88 zone (weekly pivot zone).”The low today was at .9588 and price may be turning higher for a test of at least .9734.The structure of the decline from .9734 looks like a larger B wave.The individual legs of the decline are all in 3 waves and the decline itself is in 3 waves.If this is a B wave, then price is likely to exceed .9734 before bearish potential comes to the forefront.There is the possibility that this is a more significant low as well but there is no evidence of a turn yet.
Strategy: Bullish against .9589, target .9734
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-26-07techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the internal structure suggests that this break could extend for some time.If wave 5 from .8750 equals wave 1 (.7673-.8333), then price would extend to .9410.The rally made it to .9145 today.Since the pair is in a larger 5th wave, every tick higher increases the risk of a reversal.But, the rally appears to be in just the 3rd wave within the 5th so the AUDUSD should continue to extend higher.The structure is bullish as long as price is above .8935.Short term support (for those that wish to try and join in on the rally) is the ..9041/82 zone.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10-26-07techs8.gif
Commentary: We presented the bullish count yesterday, which suggested that “a rally is likely to accelerate in a small 3rd wave.Price above .7467 keeps the trend pointed higher. Coming under this level triggers the bearish count.”Kiwi’s rally has continued and should continue.Support should be strong near .7580.
Strategy:Get bullish near .7580, against .7467, for a rally through .7785
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/10/dailyfx_reports/techs/10.03.07techs9.gif
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