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blog标题来自于发表日期评论4/11周五黄金4小时图走势分析alanluo4-1104/10周四黄金4小时图走势分析alanluo4-1004/6黄金一周分析及操作策略alanluo4-604/2周三黄金日线图分析－空头看待alanluo4-20金价突破长期支撑alanluo4-103/30周日黄金4小时图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-3003/30周日黄金4小时图分析－短多看待alanluo3-3003/30周日黄金日线图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-3003/30周日黄金日线图分析－短多看待alanluo3-3003/26周日黄金4小时图分析－短多看待alanluo3-2603/23周日黄金4小时图分析及策略－空头持有alanluo3-2403/23周日黄金4小时图分析－空头看待alanluo3-2403/23周日黄金日线图分析及策略－空头持有alanluo3-2403/23周日黄金日线图分析－空头看待alanluo3-2403/16周日黄金日线图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-1603/16周日黄金日线图分析－多头看待alanluo3-1603/16周日黄金4小时图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-1603/16周日黄金4小时图分析－多头看待alanluo3-1603/9周日黄金4小时图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-903/9周日黄金4小时图分析－多头看待alanluo3-903/9周日黄金日线图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-903/9周日黄金日线图分析－多头看待alanluo3-903/2周日黄金4小时图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-303/2周日黄金4小时图分析－多头看待alanluo3-303/2周日黄金日线图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo3-303/2周日黄金日线图分析－多头看待alanluo3-302/27周三黄金分析及交易策略－多头看待alanluo2-2702/24周日黄金4小时图分析及策略－尝试沽空alanluo2-2402/24周日黄金4小时图分析－即将回落alanluo2-2402/24周日黄金日线图分析及策略－多头持有alanluo2-240首页 上一页 下一页 尾页 页次：1/17页转到：
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-11-08techs2.gif
Short term intraday charts show that the decline from 1.5916 can be counted as an impulse.
Given the possibility that the entire advance from 1.5342 is a B wave (a-b-c) in a flat from 1.5904, a bearish bias is warranted on a break below 1.5726.
The bearish target is not until below 1.5342.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish on a break below 1.5726, against 1.5916, target below 1.5342
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-11-08techs3.gif
We wrote yesterday that “the strong decline this morning may be the beginning of wave v within the 5 wave drop from 114.65.
5 waves down from 114.65 would complete larger wave 3 within the drop from 124.13.”
As long as price is below 102.95, this remains our preferred outlook.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 102.93, target below 95.72
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-11-08techs4.gif
Bigger picture, we have been bearish due to the 5 wave decline from 2.1160 to 1.9337 and the 3 wave advance from 1.9337 to 2.0396.
Therefore, expectations have been for Cable to accelerate lower in a C or 3rd wave.
The pair has declined but in a choppy fashion.
As long as price is below 2.0047, this bearish scenario remains a possibility.
Ideally, price remains below 1.9842.
If 2.0047 gives way, then we’ll propose an alternate.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0047, target 1.86
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-11-08techs5.gif
Our short term count was thrown off track with recent weakness.
We would like to show the bigger picture for perspective.
One count treats the drop from 1.1105 as wave 5 within a 5 wave drop from 1.3295.
Under this count, a major low is in place at .9647 and the USDCHF will work higher over the coming weeks and months towards Fibo resistance; which does not begin until 1.0840.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-11-08techs6.gif
The drop to 1.0132 last night could be the small 2nd wave that we were anticipating.
A break above 1.0223 would confirm this suspicion. The latest bull leg (.9710-1.0324) is a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal).
The drop to 1.0018 is wave 2 and wave 3 should be underway now; which will lead to a break above 1.0324 and much higher prices.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0018, target above 1.0324
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-11-08techs7.gif
We are treating the decline from .9470 (which may have been a truncation) as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
This bearish count remains valid as long as price is below .9353.
It is also possible that the .9496-.8952 decline and .8952-.9344 rally are waves A and B in a larger correction.
Either way, we remain bearish as long as price is below .9344.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .9344, target below .8952
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-11-08techs8.gif
The short term structure has been impossible to count (there is no clear count in our opinion).
For perspective, we are showing the daily.
Our best long term count treats .8215 as a possible end to a large B wave within an A-B-C correction from the 2005 high of.7463.
As such, a sharp C wave may be underway.
A break below the support line drawn off of the August 2007 and January lows would inspire confidence in the bearish bias.
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-10-08techs2.gif
If 1.5673 was the bottom of wave E within a triangle, then wave E was especially small.
Remember, E waves of triangles are usually sharp and have a tendency to penetrate the lower triangle line.
The deep E wave fools most market participants into the thinking that a major reversal is underway.
In other words, wave E of the triangle creates the psychology necessary for the terminal thrust.
The triangle may not be perfect, but the form is there, so we must respect it.
If 1.5673 was the bottom of wave E, then the EURUSD may carry to 1.6250; this is where the rally from 1.5673 would equal the widest point of the triangle (a common occurrence).
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-10-08techs3.gif
We had thought that the USDJPY would reverse closer to 104 but the strong decline this morning may be the beginning of wave v within the 5 wave drop from 114.65.
5 waves down from 114.65 would complete larger wave 3 within the drop from 124.13.
Resistance should be strong in the 100.71-102.20 zone.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Get bearish in 100.71-102.20 zone, against 102.93, target below 95.72
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-10-08techs4.gif
The inability of Cable to accelerate lower in a 3rd wave has us thinking of alternate scenarios.
Bigger picture, we have been bearish due to the 5 wave decline from 2.1160 to 1.9337 and the 3 wave advance from 1.9337 to 2.0396.
Therefore, expectations have been for Cable to accelerate lower in a C or 3rd wave.
The pair has declined but in a choppy fashion.
As long as price is below 2.0047, this bearish scenario remains a possibility.
Resistance is in the 1.9850/95 zone.
If 2.0047 gives way, then we’ll propose an alternate.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0047, target 1.86
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-10-08techs5.gif
Our short term count was thrown off track with recent weakness.
We would like to show the bigger picture for perspective.
One count treats the drop from 1.1105 as wave 5 within a 5 wave drop from 1.3295.
Under this count, a major low is in place at .9647 and the USDCHF will work higher over the coming weeks and months towards Fibo resistance; which does not begin until 1.0840.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-10-08techs6.gif
Near term, the latest bull leg (.9710-1.0324) is a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal).
We had previously treated the drop from 1.0324 as wave a in a larger a-b-c correction (wave 2) but the advance from 1.0018 is an impulse and is likely wave i of 3.
As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.0018.
Support should be just above 1.01.
STRATEGY: Get bullish near 1.0105, against 1.0018, target above 1.0324
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-10-08techs7.gif
There is no change to the count that we outlined yesterday.
“We are treating the decline from .9470 (which was a truncation) as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
This bearish count remains valid as long as price is below .9353.
The sharp drop from just below .93 presents a shorting opportunity against .9353.”
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .9353, target below .8952
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-10-08techs8.gif
The break through the short term resistance line as well as a potential 5 waves up from .7781 negates out bearish bias.
In fact, a dip to .7918 would present an opportunity to get long Kiwi.
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-09-08techs2.gif
The EURUSD has hardly moved since yesterday and therefore there is no change to the near term structure.
“Both legs of the down-up sequence from 1.5904 are not clear impulses.
This makes it likely that a larger correction is underway; either a triangle or a flat.
It is possible that waves A through D of a triangle are complete and that wave E is underway towards 1.5600 or just below.
E waves of triangles are usually sharp and have a tendency to penetrate the lower triangle line.
The triangle line crosses through 1.5590 today and 1.5620 tomorrow.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-09-08techs3.gif
Our confidence in the scenario that we have been expecting to unfold is increased due to the small triangle.
Triangles are terminal patterns, meaning that the move from the triangles will lead to a reversal.
“An A-B-C correction (as a iv wave within the 5 wave decline from 114.65) should come to an end this week or next.
Wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56.
Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58.
Resistance near the 104 area is reinforced by a resisting trendline that is drawn off of the 12/27 and 2/25 highs.”
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-09-08techs4.gif
The decline has accelerated and we are confident that wave C (or 3) within the bearish cycle from 2.1160 has started.
Remember, the longer term (a month or 2 out) objective is not until near 1.8500.
Very near term, the drop from 2.0047 appears to be unfolding as an impulse, which inspires confidence in the larger bearish bias.
1.9745/55 should provide short term resistance.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0047, target 1.86
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-09-08techs5.gif
Our short term preferred count is still bullish but not as bullish as before. As is the case with the USDJPY, a small triangle appears to be unfolding from the 4/3 high at 1.0216.
A terminal thrust from the triangle would likely complete wave c within an a-b-c rally from .9871 and larger wave Y within a complex W-X-Y corrective advance from .9647.
The initial bullish objective is where wave Y would equal wave W; at 1.0473.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0012, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-09-08techs6.gif
Near term, the latest bull leg (.9710-1.0324) is a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal).
We had previously treated the drop from 1.0324 as wave a in a larger a-b-c correction (wave 2) but the advance from 1.0018 is an impulse and is likely wave i of 3.
As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.0018.
Support should be just above 1.01.
STRATEGY: Get bullish near 1.0105, against 1.0018, target above 1.0324
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-09-08techs7.gif
There is no change to the count that we outlined yesterday.
“We are treating the decline from .9470 (which was a truncation) as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
This bearish count remains valid as long as price is below .9353.
The sharp drop from just below .93 presents a shorting opportunity against .9353.”
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .9353, target below .8952
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-09-08techs8.gif
We remain bears longer term and of the opinion that a significant top is in place at.8215 (this may be the end of large wave B from .5927).
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927 (in the coming months).
Near term, the NZDUSD needs to stay below .8101 in order for the bearish count to remain favored.
The pair is facing resistance from a short term trendline right now.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-08-08techs2.gif
Near term, both legs of the down-up sequence from 1.5904 are not clear impulses.
This makes it likely that a larger correction is underway; either a triangle or a flat.
It is possible that waves A through D of a triangle are complete and that wave E is underway towards 1.5600 or just below.
E waves of triangles are usually sharp and have a tendency to penetrate the lower triangle line.
The triangle line crosses through 1.5593 tomorrow.
It does remain possible that a larger correction is underway.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-08-08techs3.gif
As we have focused on in recent days, an A-B-C correction (as a iv wave within the 5 wave decline from 114.65) should come to an end this week or next.
Wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56.
Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58.
Resistance near the 104 area is reinforced by a resisting trendline that is drawn off of the 12/27 and 2/25 highs.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-08-08techs4.gif
Cable is finally rewarding our patience.
The decline has accelerated and we are confident that wave C (or 3) within the bearish cycle from 2.1160 has started.
Remember, the longer term (a month or 2 out) objective is not until near 1.8500.
Risk on short positions can be moved to 2.0047.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0047, target 1.86
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-08-08techs5.gif
The bullish count that we are tracking places a low in wave ii in the form of an expanded flat at 1.0012.
Bullish potential is great as long as price is above this level.
A rally through 1.0249 would confirm that either a 3rd wave or C wave is underway within the bullish cycle from .9647.
Objectives would be at 1.0473 and 1.0844.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0012, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-08-08techs6.gif
Near term, the latest bull leg (.9710-1.0324) is a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal).
Therefore, wave 2 is underway now.
Specifically, the drop from 1.0324 is wave a of 2 and the rally to 1.0172 is wave b (or part of wave b).
The wave 2 correction will probably continue for a few more weeks before ending closer to .9950 (61.8%) / 1.00 (former resistance).
This is where we will look to enter long.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-08-08techs7.gif
We are treating the decline from .9470 (which was a truncation) as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
This bearish count remains valid as long as price is below .9353.
The sharp drop from just below .93 presents a shorting opportunity against .9353.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .9353, target below .8952
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-08-08techs8.gif
Bigger picture, it is possible that a significant top is in place at.8215 (this may be the end of large wave B from .5927).
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927 (in the coming months).
Near term, the NZDUSD needs to stay below .8101 in order for the bearish count to remain favored.
The pair is facing resistance from a short term trendline.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs2.gif
The exceptionally strong rally since June 2007 is a 3rd of a III wave rally but may be over.
Wave 4 of III is expected likely underway now as either a flat or triangle.
In the case of a flat, the decline could test the 38.2% of 1.3260-1.5903 at 1.4894 or the 50% at 1.4582.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs3.gif
Near term, both legs of the down-up sequence from 1.5904 are not clear impulses.
This makes it likely that a larger correction is underway; either a triangle or a flat.
In either case, waves A and B are complete and wave C is underway towards lower prices.
In the case of a triangle, the EURUSD would come under 1.5510. In the case of a flat, the EURUSD would continue to decline until dropping below 1.5342.
Ideally, price remains below 1.5772.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5772, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs4.gif
Longer term, we maintain that a 12 year triangle ended at 124.13 in June 2007 and that the USDJPY is headed lower for a test of its 1995 low at 81.12.
The rally from 95.72 is viewed as wave iv within the 5 wave decline from 117.93 (which is wave 3 within the 5 wave decline from 124.13).
The advance is very close to complete as price is pressing against the 38.2% of 114.65-95.72.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs5.gif
The A-B-C correction should come to an end this week or next.
Wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56.
Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58.
See EURJPY for additional Yen trade ideas.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs6.gif
The GBPUSD declined in 5 waves from 2.1160, indicating that a significant top is in place.
The 5 wave decline is viewed as either wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A in a 3 wave bear cycle.
In other words, longer term bearish potential is great.
The rally from 1.9337 is either wave 2 or B and is complete at 2.0396.
The decline should accelerate this week or next.
Price should remain below 2.0191
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs7.gif
On Friday, Cable tested a resistance line drawn off of the 3/14 and 3/27 highs and failed.
This level is also defended by the 61.8% of 2.0191-1.9728 at 2.0014.
The failure inspires confidence in the bearish bias against 2.0191.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0191, target 1.86
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs8.gif
One possible count treats the drop from 1.1105 as wave 5 within a 5 wave drop from 1.3295.
Under this count, a major low is in place at .9647 and the USDCHF will work higher over the coming weeks and months towards Fibo resistance; which does not begin until 1.0840.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs9.gif
One possible count treats the drop from 1.1105 as wave 5 within a 5 wave drop from 1.3295.
Under this count, a major low is in place at .9647 and the USDCHF will work higher over the coming weeks and months towards Fibo resistance; which does not begin until 1.0840.
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The decline from the 2002 high at 1.6189 may be complete as a long term double zigzag corrective decline.
If this count is correct, then a multi-year low is in place for the USDCAD.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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Near term, the latest bull leg (.9710-1.0324) is a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal).
Therefore, wave 2 is underway now.
Specifically, the drop from 1.0324 is wave a of 2.
The wave 2 correction will probably continue for a few more weeks before ending closer to .9950 (61.8%) / 1.00 (former resistance).
This is where we will look to get long.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs12.gif
Longer term, the AUDUSD is in the process of forming a major multi year top.
We view the advance from the 2001 low as an A-B-C advance.
The rally from the 2004 low at .6771 is wave C.
The rally through the November 2007 high at .9400 satisfies minimum expectations for wave 5 of C from .8512.
However, it is not confirmed that a top is in place yet.
The short term pattern will alert us to short opportunities.
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We are treating the decline from .9470 (which was a truncation) as a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
This bearish count remains valid as long as price is below .9353.
However, confidence in the pattern is low, especially given the fact this count doesn’t even work unless we count .9470 as a truncation.
If we see evidence of weakness, then we’ll look for a short opportunity.
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Since the top in July at .8108, we contend that the NZDUSD is tracing out a large expanded flat.
Wave B of the flat may be complete at .8215 and as such, a multi year top may be in place.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-07-08techs15.gif
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughtout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model.
LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close).
SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close).
R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits.
These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS takes into account COT data
ELLIOTT WAVE VIEW is our assessment of both the longer term (DAILY BARS) and shorter term (60 MINUTE BARS) EW structure.
This is the basis for our STRATEGY.
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The rally through 1.5700 negates out very bearish count that called for the EURUSD to drop in a small 3rd wave.
However, there is still a strong case to be made for the EURUSD come under at least 1.5510.
Both legs of the down-up sequence from 1.5904 are not clear impulses.
This makes it likely that a larger correction is underway; either a triangle or a flat.
In either case, waves A and B are complete and wave C is underway towards lower prices.
In the case of a triangle, the EURUSD would come under 1.5510. In the case of a flat, the EURUSD would continue to decline until dropping below 1.5342.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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An A-B-C correction should come to an end within the next few weeks.
Wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56.
Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58.
Near term support is near 101.50.
View our Yen and Dow special report for more on the USDJPY.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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We wrote yesterday that “price either continues to drop with 1.9898 remaining intact or the GBPUSD exceeds 1.9898 and tests close to 1.9960 (confluence of the 50% of 2.0191-1.9728 and former congestion) before the decline resumes.
Both counts are bearish going into next week and beyond.
The second scenario just delays the drop.”
The second scenario is the one that has played out.
Look for price to decline from the current level.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0191, target 1.86
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We had thought that “the rally from 1.0067 was wave iii of 3 of A” and that the USDCHF would continue higher with 1.0067 remaining intact.
That has no happened as the pair broke below 1.0067.
If the bullish count is correct, then the USDCHF is tracing out an expanded flat and price must remain above .9871.
Potential short term support is .9983/1.0018.
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We view the .9710-1.0324 bull leg as a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal).
Therefore, wave 2 is underway now.
Specifically, the drop from 1.0324 is wave a of 2.
The wave 2 correction will probably continue for a few more weeks before ending closer to .9950 (61.8%) / 1.00 (former resistance).
This is where we will look to get long.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-04-08tech7.gif
The long and short term patterns in the AUDUSD remain in conflict and we therefore are refraining from taking a strong stand one way or the other.
As we noted yesterday, the up-down sequence from .8925 looks like a 5 wave advance and 3 wave decline.
This count warrants a short term bullish bias against .8925.
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There is no change to the NZDUSD bearish count.
“Our confidence in the bearish count that we proposed a few weeks ago has grown.
We view the rally from .6639 to .8215 as a large expanded flat (A-B-C).
Wave C of that rally is an ending diagonal (waves 1-2-3-4-5 are overlapping and each subdivide into 3 waves).
Bigger picture, .8215 may be the end of wave B from .5927.
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927.”
Near term, the NZDUSD may pop above .7926 before the decline accelerates.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-03-08tech2.gif
While we revised the internal count, we remain bearish.
“The near term picture confirms our long term count.”
That is, 5 waves down are complete and a 3 wave correction is complete at 1.5701.
Risk on shorts can be moved to 1.5701.
As long as the EURUSD is below this level, price accelerating lower remains a possibility.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5701, target will be in 1.46-1.49 zone
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An A-B-C correction should come to an end within the next few weeks.
Wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56.
Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58.
Near term support is near 101.50.
View our Yen and Dow special report from yesterday for more on the USDJPY.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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We showed the 240 minute bars yesterday but today we are zooming in for timing purposes.
There is no change to the bearish bias as long as price is below 2.0191.
Near term, we see two possibilities.
Price either continues to drop with 1.9898 remaining intact or the GBPUSD exceeds 1.9898 and tests close to 1.9960 (confluence of the 50% of 2.0191-1.9728 and former congestion) before the decline resumes.
Both counts are bearish going into next week and beyond.
The second scenario just delays the drop.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0191, target 1.86
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Expectations are for the rally from .9647 to eventually reach the 1.0730-1.1121 zone.
The rally from .9647 has traced out a series of 1st and 2nd waves; indicating the possibility that the USDCHF accelerates higher in a 3rd of a 3rd soon.
Under this count, the rally from 1.0067 is wave iii of 3 of A.
Risk on longs can be moved to 1.0067.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0067, target 1.10
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See yesterday’s commentary for the longer term outlook (which is bullish).
Near term, we are concentrating on the rally from .9710 and looking for long entries.
We view the .9710-1.0324 bull leg as a wave 1 impulse within a 5 wave bull cycle (wave i of 1 is a diagonal).
Therefore, wave 2 is underway now.
Specifically, the drop from 1.0324 is wave a of 2.
The wave 2 correction will probably continue for a few more weeks before ending closer to .9950 (61.8%) / 1.00 (former resistance).
This is where we will look to get long.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-03-08tech7.gif
The long and short term patterns in the AUDUSD remain in conflict and we therefore are refraining from taking a strong stand one way or the other.
As we noted yesterday, the up-down sequence from .8925 looks like a 5 wave advance and 3 wave decline.
This count warrants a short term bullish bias against .8925.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-03-08tech8.gif
There is no change to the NZDUSD bearish count.
“Our confidence in the bearish count that we proposed a few weeks ago has grown.
We view the rally from .6639 to .8215 as a large expanded flat (A-B-C).
Wave C of that rally is an ending diagonal (waves 1-2-3-4-5 are overlapping and each subdivide into 3 waves).
Bigger picture, .8215 may be the end of wave B from .5927.
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927.
Near term, the drop below .7865 confirms (with a high probability) that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is underway from .8215.”
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-02-08tech2.gif
We presented the longer term count yesterday and wrote that “our best longer term count treats the decline from 1.5904 as wave 4 (within the 5 wave advance from 1.2865) of III (within the 5 wave advance from 1.1638).
Typically, 4th waves retrace about 38.2% of wave 3 of the same degree; that would place the EURUSD near 1.4894.
Another common occurrence is for price to come back to the center of the triangle that the break occurred from.
That places the EURUSD near 1.4650 (very close to the 50% at 1.4582).”
The near term picture confirms our long term count.
That is, 5 waves down are complete and a 3 wave correction may also be complete at 1.5673 (area of former 4th wave), which is shown above.
Still, the count is bearish as long as price is below 1.5895.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5895, target will be in 1.46-1.49 zone
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An A-B-C correction should come to an end within the next few weeks.
Wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56.
Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58.
Near term, support should come in near 101.50.
The move up is extended, therefore we view this is an optimal time for short term longs to exit.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Exit longs
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The GBPUSD bearish pattern has remained intact.
“Bigger picture, we view the decline from 2.1160 as wave (A) in a larger A-B-C correction.
Wave (B) was a clear 3 wave countertrend rally that ended just shy of the 61.8% level of A.
Wave (C) is underway now and specifically, wave 1 of (C) is underway now.
The longer term (8 to 12 weeks) target is near 1.8500.”
As long as price is below 2.0191, we maintain that large wave C is underway from 2.0396.
Near term, potential resistance is at 1.9965 but given the wave structure, the decline could accelerate.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0191, target TBD
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Expectations are for the rally from .9647 to eventually reach the 1.0730-1.1121 zone.
Also like the EURUSD, the rally from .9647 is probably a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
Under this count, the rally from .9868 is wave iii of 3 of A.
The structure is very bullish as long as price is above .9871
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9871, target TBD
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“What was previously our alternate count is now preferred.
The drop to .9710 completed an expanded flat from the December high at 1.0248.
It is highly probably now that a multi-year low is in place at .9055.
Objectives for the bull move that began at .9710 are near 1.09 and 1.1600.”
Near term, we expect price to drop to at least 1.0093.
This would present a bullish opportunity.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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“A major top may be in place at .9496.
Treating the rally to .9470 as a truncated 5th wave supports this outlook.
However, confidence in the larger bearish picture is low right now since we can count a 5 wave rally from .8952 to .9240.
A 3 wave correction may be complete at .9075.
Under this count, a short term bullish bias is warranted against .8952.
With the long term and short term patterns in conflict, we will stand aside.”
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Our confidence in the bearish count that we proposed a few weeks ago has grown.
“We view the rally from .6639 to .8215 as a large expanded flat (A-B-C).
Wave C of that rally is an ending diagonal (waves 1-2-3-4-5 are overlapping and each subdivide into 3 waves).
Bigger picture, .8215 may be the end of wave B from .5927.
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927.”
Near term, the drop below .7865 confirms (with a high probability) that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is underway from .8215.
Risk on shorts can be moved to .8101.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-01-08tech2.gif
The EURUSD bullish boat got a bit too full and has tipped over (finally).
Our best longer term count treats the decline from 1.5904 as wave 4 (within the 5 wave advance from 1.2865) of III (within the 5 wave advance from 1.1638).
Typically, 4th waves retrace about 38.2% of wave 3 of the same degree; that would place the EURUSD near 1.4894.
Another common occurrence is for price to come back to the center of the triangle that the break occurred from.
That places the EURUSD near 1.4650 (very close to the 50% at 1.4582).
Near term, there may be 5 waves complete from 1.5895.
If so, then 1.5700 should provide resistance.
It is also possible that the EURUSD extends lower immediately.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5895, target will be in 1.46-1.49 zone
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Recent commentary noted that “the up, down sequence from 95.72 is counted as waves A and B from 95.72.
Expectations are for wave C to exceed 100.44 and test the area of the former 4th wave in the 101.40-103.60 zone.”
The USDJPY pattern has remained intact and wave C is viewed as underway from 98.56.
Wave C would equal wave A at 103.88, very close to the former 4th wave extreme at 103.58.
Risk on longs can be moved to 98.56.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish against 98.56, target 103.40
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The GBPUSD bearish pattern has remained intact.
“Bigger picture, we view the decline from 2.1160 as wave (A) in a larger A-B-C correction.
Wave (B) was a clear 3 wave countertrend rally that ended just shy of the 61.8% level of A.
Wave (C) is underway now and specifically, wave 1 of (C) is underway now.
The longer term (8 to 12 weeks) target is near 1.8500.”
As long as price is below 2.0191, we maintain that large wave C is underway from 2.0396.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0191, target TBD
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Recent commentary was “the rally through 1.0051 strongly indicates that a low is in place at .9647.
Similar to the EURUSD (but as the inverse), the rally from .9647 is probably a larger 4th wave.
Expectations are for the rally to reach the 1.0730-1.1121 zone.
Also like the EURUSD, the rally from .9647 is likely a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
Under this count, the rally from .9868 is wave iii of 3 of A.” .9868 was survived as yesterday’s low was at .9871.
Keep risk at .9871
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9871, target TBD
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“What was previously our alternate count is now preferred.
The drop to .9710 completed an expanded flat from the December high at 1.0248.
It is highly probably now that a multi-year low is in place at .9055.
Objectives for the bull move that began at .9710 are near 1.09 and 1.1600.”
Near term, we expect price to drop to at least 1.0093.
This would present a bullish opportunity.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/dailyfx_reports/TECHNICALS/04-01-08tech7.gif
A major top may be in place at .9496.
Treating the rally to .9470 as a truncated 5th wave supports this outlook.
However, confidence in the larger bearish picture is low right now since we can count a 5 wave rally from .8952 to .9240.
A 3 wave correction may be complete at .9075.
Under this count, a short term bullish bias is warranted against .8952.
With the long term and short term patterns in conflict, we will stand aside.
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Our confidence in the bearish count that we proposed a few weeks ago has grown.
“We view the rally from .6639 to .8215 as a large expanded flat (A-B-C).
Wave C of that rally is an ending diagonal (waves 1-2-3-4-5 are overlapping and each subdivide into 3 waves).
Bigger picture, .8215 may be the end of wave B from .5927.
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927.”
Near term, the drop below .7865 confirms (with a high probability) that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is underway from .8215.
Risk on shorts can be moved to .8101.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5784, target TBD
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The EURUSD continues to find resistance at 1.5471 on short term charts confirming our bearish bias on the pair for the time being. A clean break of the 1.5470 opens up the possibility of a run back to 1.5750, but so far the bearish structure if the pair remains preserved. A break below the 1.5350 low would only add fuel to our downside bias with 1.5000 as the next major support level.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5784, target TBD
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USDJPY continues to maintain its upward bias, but further progresses depends on how well it can overcome the 100 level. 100.50-100.00 has represented serious resistance over the past several days and only a strong move through that region opens the possibility of out final target of 102.00. Otherwise the pair may need to regroup at 99.31 and 98.48 as the next logical levels of support, before trying yet another assault on the 100 barrier.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish against 97.66, target 102
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We continue to favor GBPUSD shorts to our final target of 1.9540, but the near term picture suggests that cable may have found support at 1.9750 and is likely to consolidate in the 1.9900-1.9750 channel as it works off its oversold condition. A break of the 1.9750 zone indicates further weakness to our ultimate target. However a break of 1.9900 once again sets up a retest of 2.000 and beyond.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0271, target 1.9540
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Overnight bullish action in USDCHF confirms our long bias on the pair as it now consolidates at the 102.00 level before making as run at the swing high of 103.50. Note the shallow retraces in the pair which have made consistently higher lows in keeping with the overall bullish posture of the move.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9868, target 1.07
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After a massive run up in the past several days, USDCAD has found resistance at the 103.00 level as it consolidates its recent gains. A break below 102.00 opens up the possibility of a run to 1.0100 and even to parity, while only a strong break above the 1.0300 level generates further forward price momentum.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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Aussie’s near term appears to have come to an end as the pair finds support at 8950. A bounce back to 38.2 Fib of the recent bear wave of 9450-8950 is a natural target before the move finds some resistance..
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Kiwi much like the Aussie has found a near term bottom and may attempt a rally to 8000-8050 region from which it tumbled on Friday. On the other hand, a drop through the recent lows of 7881 portends steeper downside action for the pair as its descent is likely at accelerate.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8173, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-13 20:31 编辑 ]
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We maintain that the spike to 1.5904 completed the entire rally from 1.4438.
The decline from 1.5904 is the start of a larger 4th wave that should bring price back to 1.4650 (midpoint of the triangle that the EURUSD broke from).
Near term, the drop from 1.5904 is a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
Under this count, the decline from 1.5784 is wave iii of 3 of A and should accelerate next week.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5784, target TBD
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The up, down sequence from 95.72 is counted as waves A and B from 95.72.
Expectations are for wave C to exceed 100.44 and test the area of the former 4th wave in the 101.40-103.60 zone.
The 100% extension of wave A (where wave C would equal wave A) is at 102.38.
Risk on longs can be moved to 97.66.
It is also possible that wave B (from 100.44) is unfolding as a triangle.
Still, price would remain above 97.66.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish against 97.66, target 102
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Bigger picture, we view the decline from 2.1160 as wave (A) in a larger A-B-C correction.
Wave (B) was a clear 3 wave countertrend rally that ended just shy of the 61.8% level of A.
Wave (C) is underway now and specifically, wave 1 of (C) is underway now.
The longer term (8 to 12 weeks) target is near 1.8500.
A drop below 1.9734 would complete 5 waves down from 2.0396 and complete wave 1 of C.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0271, target 1.9540
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The rally through 1.0051 strongly indicates that a low is in place at .9647.
Similar to the EURUSD (but as the inverse), the rally from .9647 is probably a larger 4th wave.
Expectations are for the rally to reach the 1.0730-1.1121 zone.
Also like the EURUSD, the rally from .9647 is likely a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
Under this count, the rally from .9868 is wave iii of 3 of A.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9868, target 1.07
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The break above 1.0197 negates our bearish bias.
Therefore, what was previously our alternate count is now preferred.
The drop to .9710 completed an expanded flat from the December high at 1.0248.
It is highly probably now that a multi-year low is in place at .9055.
Objectives for the bull move that began at .9710 are near 1.09 and 1.1600.
We will look for long entries going forward.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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Given the deterioration of the Aussie in recent days, our best count labels the rally to .9470 as a truncated 5th wave.
Confidence in this count would be bolstered if the drop from .9470 unfolds in 5 waves.
This would also make it likely that a multi-year top is in place.
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Our confidence in the bearish count that first proposed last Friday is growing as the NZDUSD has weakened.
We view the rally from .6639 to .8215 as a large expanded flat (A-B-C).
Wave C of that rally is an ending diagonal (waves 1-2-3-4-5 are overlapping and each subdivide into 3 waves).
Bigger picture, .8215 may be the end of wave B from .5927.
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927.
We will discuss shorter term targets as the pattern evolves.
Risk on shorts can be moved to .8173.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8173, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/dailyfx_reports/techs/03-20-08tech2.gif
We wrote yesterday that “coming under 1.5612 would suggest that a top is in place.”
The EURUSD has dropped through this level (and quickly), therefore we are looking for short opportunities.
The spike to 1.5904 appears to have completed the entire rally from 1.4438.
We view the decline from there as the start of a larger 4th wave that should bring price back to 1.4650 (midpoint of the triangle that the EURUSD broke from).
Under this count, the decline from 1.5784 is wave iii of 3 of A.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5784, target TBD
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The up, down sequence from 95.72 is counted as waves A and B from 95.72.
Expectations are for wave C to exceed 100.44 and test the area of the former 4th wave in the 101.40-103.60 zone.
The 100% extension of wave A (where wave C would equal wave A) is at 102.38.
Risk on longs can be moved to 97.66.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish against 97.66, target 102
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Keep in mind that the drop from 2.1160 to 1.9337 was in 5 waves.
We view this decline as wave (A) in a larger A-B-C correction.
Wave (B) was a clear 3 wave countertrend rally that ended just shy of the 61.8% level of A.
Wave (C) is underway now.
Specifically, wave 1 of (C) is underway now.
We will remain bearish until we see 5 waves down from 2.0396.
A short term target is 1.9540 (1 to 3 days).
The longer term (8 to 12 weeks) target is near 1.8500.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0271, target 1.9540
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We had thought that “one more low was required (below .9647) before a sizeable rally developed but also mentioned that a rally through 1.0051 strongly indicates that a low is in place at .9647.”
We know now that the latter scenario played out and therefore favor the idea that a low is in place at .9647.
Like the EURUSD (but inverse), the rally from .9647 is probably a larger 4th wave.
Expectations are for the rally to reach the 1.0730-1.1121 zone.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9868, target 1.07
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The break above 1.0197 negates our bearish bias.
Therefore, what was previously our alternate count is now preferred.
The drop to .9710 completed an expanded flat from the December high at 1.0248.
It is highly probably now that a multi-year low is in place at .9055.
Objectives for the bull move that began at .9710 are near 1.09 and 1.1600.
We will look for long entries going forward.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/dailyfx_reports/techs/03-20-08tech7.gif
Given the deterioration of the Aussie in recent days, our best count labels the rally to .9470 as a truncated 5th wave.
Confidence in this count would be bolstered if the drop from .9470 unfolds in 5 waves.
This would also make it likely that a multi-year top is in place.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/dailyfx_reports/techs/03-20-08tech8.gif
Our confidence in the bearish count that first proposed last Friday is growing as the NZDUSD has weakened.
We view the rally from .6639 to .8215 as a large expanded flat (A-B-C).
Wave C of that rally is an ending diagonal (waves 1-2-3-4-5 are overlapping and each subdivide into 3 waves).
Bigger picture, .8215 may be the end of wave B from .5927.
Price is expected to eventually come under .5927.
We will discuss shorter term targets as the pattern evolves.
Risk on shorts can be moved to .8173.
STRATEGY: Short, against .8173, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
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The EURUSD has extended higher and is closing in on 1.60.
A push through 1.5904 would make the rally from 1.5146 5 waves and possibly complete the entire rally from 1.4438.
We say this because the rally from 1.4438 can be divided into 5 waves itself as shown on the chart above.
1.5914 (just above the Monday high at 1.5904) is where wave 5 (from 1.5282) would equal 61.8% of waves 1 through 3.
In summary, it appears that the EURUSD is headed to a new high.
Coming under 1.5612 would suggest that a top is in place.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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The decline from 108.35 is wave iii of 3 of larger III from 124.13.
It is possible that there are 5 waves complete at 95.72.
The up, down sequence from 95.72 is counted as waves A and B from 95.72.
Expectations are for wave C to exceed 100.44 and test the area of the former 4th wave in the 101.40-103.60 zone.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish against 95.72, target TBD
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We have concentrated closely on the GBPUSD recently because we are expecting a fast decline to 1.8500 over the next few months.
“The rally from 1.9361 is wave C within the A-B-C advance from 1.9337.
Wave C should divide into 5 waves and 5 waves can be counted from 1.9361.
As such, a major top may be in place at 2.0396.”
The rally to 2.0271 may be wave ii within the 5 wave decline that began at 2.0396.
Risk can be moved to 2.0271.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0271, target TBD
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It looks as though the USDCHF will continue lower.
We do contend that the drop from 1.0352 is wave 5 within the 5 wave drop from 1.1105.
It still appears that one more low is required (below .9647) before a sizeable rally develops.
A rally through 1.0051 strongly indicates that a low is in place at .9647.
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As long as the declines are in 5 waves and the advances are in 3 waves, there is no reason to fade the downtrend.
Price should come under .9710 soon.
The bearish line in the sand is 1.0197.
The rally from .9710 is probably a combination complex correction (W-X-Y).
Wave Y would equal wave W at 1.0068, near the 78.6% of 1.0197-.9710 at 1.0093.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY:
Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
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The 60 minute chart zooms in on the rally from .8512 (January low).
The rally from .8512 is viewed as wave 5 of large C.
So far, there are only 3 waves complete to .9496.
The drop yesterday to .9127 probably completes wave 4 within the 5 wave advance from .8512.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9127, target TBD
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An ending diagonal is underway from the 1/22 low at .7494.
Exceeding the wave 3 high of diagonal at .8214 would satisfy minimum expectations for wave 5.
Today’s high is right at the wave 3 high of .8214.
It is possible that this is the top of wave 5 and the entire rally from .6639.
Under this scenario, larger wave C would begin now and eventually come under .6639.
STRATEGY: Short, against .8215, target TBD
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/dailyfx_reports/techs/03-18-08techs5.gif
The exceptionally strong rally since June 2007 is a 3rd of a 3rd wave rally but is close to an end.
The rally from 1.4438 is wave 5 within the 5 wave rally from 1.3261 (and wave 3 within the 5 wave rally from 1.2865).
Once the rally is complete, price is expected to come back to the middle of the triangle near 1.4650.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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The EURUSD has extended higher and is closing in on 1.60.
A push through 1.5904 would make the rally from 1.5282 5 waves and possibly complete the entire rally from 1.4438.
We say this because the rally from 1.4438 can be divided into 5 waves itself as shown on the chart above.
1.5914 is where wave 5 (from 1.5282) would equal 61.8% of waves 1 through 3.
Be on the lookout for a top and reversal.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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Longer term, we maintain that a 12 year triangle ended at 124.13 in June 2007 and that the USDJPY is headed lower for a test of its 1995 low at 81.12.
We wrote last week that “there is plenty of room for the USDJPY to fall over the next few weeks and months.
There are Fibonacci extensions (161.8) at 97.64 and 98.06.”
The USDJPY has reached these Fibonacci levels and looks poised to fall further as the pair completes wave 3 within the 5 wave drop from 124.13.
92.92 is the next potential Fibonacci support.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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The decline from 108.35 is wave iii of 3 of larger III from 124.13.
A drop below 95.72 would complete a third wave within the 5 wave drop from 108.35 and give way to a corrective 4th wave.
Near term, a bearish bias is warranted as long as price is below 99.77.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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The GBPUSD declined in 5 waves from 2.1160, indicating that a significant top is in place.
The 5 wave decline is viewed as either wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A in a 3 wave bear cycle.
In other words, longer term bearish potential is great.
The rally from 1.9337 is either wave 2 or B and is nearing a top.
The Fibonacci reversal zone is 2.0033-2.0463; which Cable is in the middle of now.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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The rally from 1.9361 is wave C within the A-B-C advance from 1.9337.
Wave C should divide into 5 waves and 5 waves can be counted from 1.9361.
As such, a major top may be in place at 2.0396.
Short term potential resistance is at 2.0222 (61.8% of 2.0396-1.9941).
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 2.0396, target TBD
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One possible count treats the drop from 1.1105 as wave 5 within a 5 wave drop from 1.3295.
Under this count, the USDCHF should be within a few weeks of forming a major low.
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We wrote last week that “it looks as though the USDCHF will continue lower.
We do contend that the drop from 1.0352 is wave 5 within the 5 wave drop from 1.1105.
Wave 5 could extend to the lower channel line near .9750/9800.”
The USDCHF did continue lower, into .9650 yesterday.
It still appears that one more low is required (below .9647) before a sizeable rally will develop.
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The pattern in the USDCAD since the November low at .9055 is either an A-B-C rally that will lead to a new low (under .9055) or a 1-2 (expanded flat) base that will lead to a strong rally to new highs (suggesting that a multi-year USDCAD low is in place).
The chart today shows the latter count.
In the case of the latter, the drop from 1.0378 has satisfied minimum expectations by coming under .9755.
We will be able to indentify a low from the wave structure on the hourly (once we see 5 waves up).
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/dailyfx_reports/techs/03-18-08techs14.gif
As long as the declines are in 5 waves and the advances are in 3 waves, there is no reason to fade the downtrend.
Price should come under .9710 soon.
The bearish line in the sand is 1.0197.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY:
Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
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As is evident on the chart, the rally through the November 2007 high at .9400 satisfies minimum expectations for wave 5 from .8512.
However, the advance does not look complete so expect the AUDUSD to push to a new high before the pair forms a significant top.
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The 60 minute chart zooms in on the rally from .8512 (January low).
The rally from .8512 is viewed as wave 5 of large C.
So far, there are only 3 waves complete to .9496.
The drop yesterday to .9127 probably completes wave 4 within the 5 wave advance from .8512.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9127, target TBD
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Since the top in July at .8108, we contend that the NZDUSD is tracing out a large expanded flat.
Wave B of the flat could test .8504 (127% of A) or .8634/69 (100% extension of a within B and 138.2% of A).
It is possible that a top is in place at .8215 though.
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An ending diagonal is either underway from the 1/22 low at .7494 or nearly complete.
It is possible that this is the top of wave 5 and the entire rally from .6639.
Under this scenario, larger wave C would begin now (and eventually come under .6639).
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughtout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model.
LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close).
SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close).
R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits.
These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS takes into account COT reports and analysis of news headlines.
Studies done by Jamie Saettele (to be published in an upcoming book) indicate that the greatest number of headlines and the most negative headlines about a currency appear at bottoms and that the greatest number of headlines and the most positive headlines about a currency appear at tops.
ELLIOTT WAVE VIEW is our assessment of both the longer term (DAILY BARS) and shorter term (60 MINUTE BARS) EW structure.
This is the basis for our STRATEGY.
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EURUSD made a spike high at 1.5901 and is now completing its natural retrace to work off short term overbought conditions. The near term uptrend remains in place and only a break 1.5500 invalidates the short term bias. Meanwhile 1.5900 no acts as resistance for a possible double top.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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USDJPY is attempting to base at a near term bottom of 96.50. The pair has carved a tentative double bottom at those levels but need to climb all the way to parity to change the downside bias
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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Pound has found support at the 2.000 level, but its price structure remains precarious at best as the pair has carved out a massive double top at the 2.0400 level. The most immediate resistance lies at 2.0200 with the pair making a sharp drop from that level overnight.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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On Friday we wrote, “It looks as though the USDCHF will continue lower, even after piercing parity this morning at .9988. We do contend that the drop from 1.0352 is wave 5 within the 5 wave drop from 1.1105. Wave 5 could extend to the lower channel line near .9750/9800” The pair in fact dropped to 9650 but has now staged a mild rally to the near term 505 Fib level of 9885 with the next bull target at 9945 as a possible goal.
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USDCAD in contrast to many of the major remains locked in range oscillating between 9800 and 1000. The compression of volatility argues for a breakout on either side of the barriers bit for now the pair remained trapped between these two levels.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY:
Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
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Our bullish view was disproven by the overnight liquidation of risk, but the pair has managed to hold 9150 support for now. Much like the other high yielders Aussie appears to be forming a distribution top but a run to the upside of the recent range is not out of the question if risk appetite returns
STRATEGY: NONE
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Kiwi unlike the other risk pairs has managed to hold the 61.8 Fib of its most recent up leg and may therefore stage a second attempt at the 8200 level. 7900 acts as near term support and should that be broken turns the directional bias to the downside
STRATEGY: Exit longs
Written By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist
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All of the objectives that we have mentioned recently have been exceeded, including where wave 5 would equal wave 1 within the 5 wave advance from 1.4438.
We are concentrating on the rally from 1.5282 today; which we are treating as wave 5 of 5.
The rally looks very close to complete.
In fact, a push through 1.5625 would possibly complete an ending diagonal from 1.5521.
Coming under 1.5535 suggests that a top is in place.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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The USDJPY broke traded below 100 today for the first time since October 1995.
More importantly, the pair broke below waves b and d of the long term triangle.
This supports our long term call for price to drop below the 1995 low of 81.12.
However, we do expect a rally near term.
There are 9 waves down from 103.58 (which we are treating as the end of wave 4 on the chart above).
Therefore, expect a rally to at least 101.69 and possible higher near term.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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We have concentrated recently on the fact that “the rally from 1.9361 is wave C within the A-B-C advance from 1.9337.
Wave C should divide into 5 waves and so far there are only 3 waves up.
As such, we expect additional gains.
The next likely resistance point is the 61.8% at 2.0463.”
If the count above is correct, then wave 1 of C is 585 pips (truncated), and wave 3 is 501 pips.
Wave 3 can not be the shortest wave, therefore wave 5 must be no longer than 501 pips.
A 500 pip rally from the wave 4 low (1.9995) places the end of wave 5 at 2.0495; very close to the 61.8% of 2.1160-1.9337 at 2.0463.
Today’s high is at 2.0389.
We are on the lookout for a short opportunity.
Be sure to check FXCMTR for ideas.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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We wrote yesterday that “price would come under 1.0134 in a 5th wave to complete the decline from 1.1105.
A larger upward correction would then take place.”
The drop today to 1.0046 satisfies minimum expectations for wave 5.
Very short term (5 min chart), 5 wave up from 1.0046 are visible.
Look for long opportunities against 1.0046
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0046, target TBD
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The USDCAD has hardly budged.
If a 3rd of a 3rd wave was underway from .9981, then the USDCAD should have accelerated lower by now.
Since it has not, we expect .9981 to be exceeded and for larger wave 2 not to end until the 61.8% at 1.0011 or the 78.6% at 1.0093.
Still, a longer term bearish bias is warranted against 1.0197.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY:
Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
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We maintain that wave 5 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8512 is underway towards a new high (above .9496).
Near term, expect price to remain above .9327.
If .9327 gives way though, look for support near .9285.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9147, target .9800
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Since the top in July at .8108, we contend that the NZDUSD is tracing out a large expanded flat.
Wave B of the flat could test .8504 (127% of A) or .7634/69 (100% extension of a within B and 138.2% of A).
The rally from .7874 is an impulse, which warrants a bullish bias.
Near term, the entire rally from .7383 may be taking the form of an ending diagonal (overlapping and each leg consisting of 3 legs).
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7874, target .8480
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We mentioned yesterday that it was possible to count 5 waves up from 1.4438 and that “this suggests that a major top is close at hand.
As always, 5 waves down from 1.5460 would signal that a top is in place.”
The quick drop to 1.5282 was likely the end of a wave 4 correction though (we mentioned this in the Elliott Wave forum yesterday).
New highs are expected in wave 5.
Wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.5601; an objective.
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The USDJPY has rallied as expected but failed to reach even the 38.2% of the 5 wave decline (104.15).
With such little retrace (and with a sentiment extreme in place…see COT), we subjectively favor the idea that a larger more complex correction is underway.
If this is the case, then the subwaves will be 3-3-5; a flat.
In a flat, wave B (in this case X), will retrace most if not all of A.
Therefore, a test of the 101.40 low is certainly possible before the rally in wave Y completes the correction.
The 61.8% of 101.40-103.58 at 102.24 is potential support.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEY: EXIT LONG
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We have concentrated recently on the fact that “the rally from 1.9361 is wave C within the A-B-C advance from 1.9337.
Wave C should divide into 5 waves and so far there are only 3 waves up.
As such, we expect additional gains.
The next likely resistance point is the 61.8% at 2.0463.”
If the count above is correct, then wave 1 of C is 585 pips (truncated), and wave 3 is 501 pips.
Wave 3 can not be the shortest wave, therefore wave 5 must be no longer than 501 pips.
A 500 pip rally from the wave 4 low (1.9995) places the end of wave 5 at 2.0495; very close to the 61.8% of 2.1160-1.9337 at 2.0463.
Look to get bullish near 2.0090 if given the chance, against 1.9995, for the break above 2.0220.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Look to get bullish near 2.0090, against 1.9995, target 2.04
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We are re-working the count this morning to show that the rally from 1.0134 may have simply been a 4th wave within the 5 wave drop from 1.1105.
If this is correct, then price would come under 1.0134 in a 5th wave to complete the decline from 1.1105.
A larger upward correction would then take place.
An unorthodox channel line also provides resistance.
STRATEGY: EXIT LONG
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We maintain a bearish bias against 1.0197.
It is possible that a top is in at .9981 but a push through there would expose the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibo levels at 1.0011 and 1.0093 and not negate the larger bearish count.
Preferably though, the price drop accelerates now and the USDCAD comes under .9710 while .9981 remains intact.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY:
Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
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We wrote yesterday that “it is also possible that the decline is complete as a double zigzag.
Those that are willing can get long against .8874 in order to prepare for the run to 1.00 (or close to it).”
This is our preferred count now and a bullish bias is warranted against .9147.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9147, target .9800
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Since the top in July at .8108, we contend that the NZDUSD is tracing out a large expanded flat.
Wave B of the flat could test .8504 (127% of A) or .7634/69 (100% extension of a within B and 138.2% of A).
The rally from .7874 is an impulse, which warrants a bullish bias.
Near term, the entire rally from .7383 may be taking the form of an ending diagonal (overlapping and each leg consisting of 3 legs).
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7874, target .8480
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The entire rally from 1.4438 could be complete at 1.5460.
Wave 5 exceeded where it would equal wave 1 at 1.5462.
It is possible that wave 5 extends closer to where wave 5 would equal 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 at 1.5635 but wave 5 would consist of 5 waves up if counted from 1.5143.
This suggests that a major top is close at hand.
As always, 5 waves down from 1.5460 would signal that a top is in place.
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We are sticking with our assessment that a 5 wave drop from 108.35 may be complete at 101.40.
This does not change the long term bearish call for the pair to test the 1995 low near 80, but it does suggest that at least a correction is due; possibly all the way back to 104.
Under this count, the up, down sequence from 101.40 is wave a and b within the a-b-c correction.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 101.40, target near 104.00
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The rally from 1.9361 is wave C within the A-B-C advance from 1.9337.
Wave C should divide into 5 waves and so far there are only 3 waves up.
As such, we expect additional gains.
The next likely resistance point is the 61.8% at 2.0663.
We wrote yesterday to “look for support in the 2.0028/2.0100 zone.”
The low yesterday was at 2.0045 so look for Cable to rally.
A drop below 2.0045 would not destroy the bullish bias.
Coming under 1.9946 would suggest that a major top is in place.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
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The drop from 1.1103 (wave 3 within the 5 wave drop from 1.1591) is complete as there are 5 waves down.
Look for a correction to reach 1.0458 over the next few weeks.
Waves a and b of the a-b-c advance appear complete and wave c should reach close to 1.0400.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0134, target 1.0390
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We maintain a bearish bias against 1.0197.
It is possible that a top is in at .9981 but a push through there would expose the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibo levels at 1.0011 and 1.0093.
The two scenarios are outlined on the chart.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY:
Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
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We still maintain that the drop from .9496 is wave 4 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8512.
A drop below .9147 may be required in order to complete wave 4.
It is also possible that the decline is complete as a double zigzag.
Those that are willing can get long against .8874 in order to prepare for the run to 1.00 (or close to it).
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/03/dailyfx_reports/techs/03-11-08techs8.gif
Since the top in July at .8108, we contend that the NZDUSD is tracing out a large expanded flat.
Wave B of the flat could test .8504 (127% of A) or .7634/69 (100% extension of a within B and 138.2% of A).
The rally from .7874 is an impulse, which warrants a bullish bias.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7874, target TBD
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STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas.
The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more.
Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.