hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 11:30

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0919techs2.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “considering that the 23.6% of wave 3 (1.3551-1.3928) is at 1.3839, it is possible that the correction is complete at 1.3828.For this reason, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.3719 (top of wave 1) for a test of 1.4000.As wave 5 unfolds, we will be able to better gauge where it might end.”Wave 5 is indeed underway from 1.3828 and is appears that one more high (above 1.3988) is required before a more significant top is in place.This 15 minute chart shows the strucutre of wave 5 from 1.3828 and suggests that it is close to complete.A rally above 1.3988 satisfies minimum expectations for the end of wave 5.      
   
Strategy:Remain bullish, move risk to 1.3828 (from 1.3719), target 1.3988
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0919techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY continues to play out as expected.We wrote yesterday that “a USDJPY rally should accelerate soon and the scenario that we described last week should play out.   That scenario describes “a flat ending at 112.59 as wave b of 2 in an a-b-c correction from 111.59.Wave c is now underway towards the 100% extension of 111.59-117.12/112.59 at 118.12 (this is also close to the 50% of 124.13-111.59 at 117.86).A rally to 118.12 would complete larger wave 2 within the 5 wave bearish sequence from 124.13 and give way to the next leg lower.”   
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 112.59, target 118.00
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0919techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the count that we favor treats the rally from 1.9879 as wave 4 in a 5 wave bear cycle from 2.0366.Resistance is at 2.0010/27 (38.2% of 2.0025-1.9878 and former 4th wave).”Cable barreled through the 2.0010/2.0027 resistance to trade above 2.0150 yesterday afternoon before rolling over at 2.0172.Still, there is no overlap with waves 1 and 4 so the rally from 1.9879 can be counted as a 4th wave.A drop below 1.9879 would complete 5 waves down from 2.0366 and give scope to a corrective rally.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0919techs5.gif
Commentary:We were not confident in the bear side yesterday but did write that “as long as price is below 1.1922, a cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.1922, targeting a drop under 1.1801.”The USDCHF is testing the 1.1800 figure yet again this morning.However, the decline from 1.1922 may be in its 5th wave.A drop below 1.1793 would potentially complete 5 waves from 1.1922 and give way to either a corrective rally or an outright reversal.Remember that the larger pattern has the USDCHF thrusting lower from a triangle and thrusts from triangles are terminal.
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0919techs6.gif
Commentary:Near term, the USDCAD may have started tracing out a 4th wave correction from 1.0081.A potential terminus for wave 4 is the 23.6% of 1.0592-1.0081 at 1.0202.This means that lower prices lie ahead but not before additional consolidation.Bigger picture, 1.0071 is the lowest that the USDCAD can go if the long term ending diagonal from 1.4000 is to remain intact.See yesterday’s analysis for the diagonal analysis.   
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0919techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “a bearish stance is warranted against .8459 but the Kiwi structure looks very bullish, so be careful with the Aussie.”The bearish bias was proved wrong as the Aussie traded through .8459 to .8550 this morning.Near term, a 5 wave rally is complete from .8274 and a corrective setback is unfolding now.Look for a setback to end in the Fibo zone of .8380-.8444 (61.8%-38.2% of .8274-.8550) before the next advance.   

Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0919techs8.gif
Commentary: The Kiwi structure is unfolding as expected.We wrote yesterday that“a correction is likely complete at .7005 and we expect the rally to accelerate in the next few hours in a 3rd wave.”The rally accelerated and the pair has exceeded the wave a high of .7272.Bullish objectives are the 100% ext. of .6639-.7272/.6824 at .7456 and the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547.Near term support is at .7227.

Strategy:Remain bullish, move risk to .7005 (from .6824), target .7456-.7547
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 11:32

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Commentary:We have been looking for the completion of the wave 4 correction to from 1.3928 before wave 5 results in an assault on 1.4000 and beyond.Considering that the 23.6% of wave 3 (1.3551-1.3928) is at 1.3839, it is possible that the correction is complete at 1.3828.For this reason, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.3719 (top of wave 1) for a test of 1.4000.As wave 5 unfolds, we will be able to better gauge where it might end.
   
Strategy:Bullish now, against 1.3719, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0918techs3.gif
Commentary:A USDJPY rally should accelerate soon and the scenario that we described last week should play out.From the last week; “The 5 wave rally from 112.59 shifts focus to the upside.The count that we are presenting today is one that we have been following for quite some time.It has a flat ended at 112.59 as wave b of 2 in an a-b-c correction from 111.59.Wave c is now underway towards the 100% extension of 111.59-117.12/112.59 at 118.12 (this is also close to the 50% of 124.13-111.59 at 117.86).A rally to 118.12 would complete larger wave 2 within the 5 wave bearish sequence from 124.13 and give way to the next leg lower.”   
   
Strategy: Bullish now, against 112.59, target 118.00
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0914techs4.gif
Commentary: On Friday, we wrote that “the structure looks bearish as the GBPUSD could be entering a 3rd of a 3rd wave down.If this is the case, then we’ll see much lower levels relatively soon (a break of 2.0043).This very aggressive bearish count is intact as long as price is below 2.0224.”Cable plummeted to 1.9879 last night before finding some support.The count that we favor treats the rally from 1.9879 as wave 4 in a 5 wave bear cycle from 2.0366.Resistance is at 2.0010/27 (38.2% of 2.0025-1.9878 and former 4th wave).         

Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0918techs5.gif
Commentary:It is unclear whether a top is in place at 1.1922.The rally from 1.1801 is in 3 waves (corrective) and indicates that the larger trend remains down.However, that rally may be just the first leg of a more complex correction.As long as price is below, a cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.1922, targeting a drop under 1.1801.A rally through 1.1922 exposes 1.1968 (100% ext. of 1.1801-1.1922/1.1847).   
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0918techs6.gif
Commentary:We wrote on Friday that “with no evidence of a bottom, we must remain bearish.”However, at this point we urge caution with regards to pressing the short side.The nearly 3 year support line (will be 3 years in November) is being tested on the weekly and weekly RSI exhibits bullish divergence at this point.Additionally, the drop below 1.0340 may have completed a 5th wave decline at a large degree of trend.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0918techs7.gif
Commentary:After testing .8450, the AUDUSD decline from .8459 to .8274 looks impulsive (5 waves) and the rally corrective (3 waves).This alone indicates that we should favor the downside.Supporting the bear argument is the fact that the rally from .7673 stalled and reversed near the 61.8% of .8770-.7673 (.8413).The rally from .7673 is in 3 waves.A bearish stance is warranted against .8459 but the Kiwi structure looks very bullish, so be careful with the Aussie.
      
Strategy: Flip to bearish now, against .8459, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0918techs8.gif
Commentary: The Kiwi structure is unfolding as expected.That is, the rally from .6824 is impulsive (5 waves), indicating additional upside potential.We wrote last week that “near term, expect a drop below .7064 to complete a the correction from .7185 before the next advance.”That correction is likely complete at .7005 and we expect the rally to accelerate in the next few hours in a 3rd wave.

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6824, target above .7272
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 12:47

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Commentary:No change to the EURUSD outlook.
The bullish bias remains but the pair continues to consolidate in the 1.3926-1.3844 corrdor.
The record high at 1.3944 remina sthe key obstacle on the way to 1.4000 but the near trem price action remains construtive.

   
Strategy:Look to enter long close to 1.3800, against 1.3719, target 1.4000
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/091702.gif

Commentary:The yen continues to churn within a ever tightening symmetrical triangle and the resolution of the price action may well point to the next major move in the pair. Overhead resuatnce remains at 115.48, but a burst through there opens up the possibility of a rise to 118.00. On the other hand a failure below the 114.50 points to reterst of the double bottom near the 112.00 fugure

   
Strategy: Bullish close to 114.50, against 112.59, target 118.00
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/091703.gif

Commentary: The pound broke the 100 SMA once again and note that this time the prior recovery high was substantially lower suggesting a distribution top may be in the making.
2.0050 – former support now resistance - acts as an overhead to any bounce but the test of 100 SMA
remains significant and only a close above that level negates the bearish bias.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/091704.gif

Commentary:The Swissie finds itself at a critical juncture with 1.1816-1.1876 providing key support as the pair tries to make it sfourth bottom at this level. Near term price action seems indeterminate but the
higher lows over the pasr several days suggest that a test of support may be complete with USDCHF heading higher. However only a recaoture of the 1.1900 level confirms the bullish bias.

Strategy:Flat
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Commentary:Having broken support at 1.0346 and having made 30 year highs against the greenback, the trend in USDCAD remains unabashedly bullish. A retrace to the 1.0350 level may be
a natural test of resistance but
only a breal above the 1.0500 level negatves the downward bias. For now the pair appears to be honnign in on parity.

Strategy: Flat

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/091706.gif

Commentary:The Aussie remains stalled at the key Fibo 61.8% retrace of the 7/25-8/16 bear wave as the .8400 level becomes the battleground between the bulls and the bears. A resolution higher opens the way to 8600, however a failure here could signal the start of a major bear move as the pair would then have completed a
seond lower high.
Strategy: Look to get bullish near .8324, against .8171, target TBD

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/091707.gif
Commentary: The Kiwi structure looks more constructive than the Aussie as the pair now tries to test the 7272 high set by the shooting star on
8/27. A break above that level opens the way to 7700 but whether the pair has that kind of momentum left in it remains to be seen. For the time the trend remains up.

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6824, target above .7272



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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 12:47

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Commentary:No change to the EURUSD outlook.The bullish bias remains although the next few trading days are likely to see a correction in wave 4 (as mentioned yesterday).We wrote yesterday that “the 5 wave rally from 1.3778 may have completed wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3360.If this is the case, then we expect a wave 4 correction to end near 1.3784 (38.2% of 1.3551-1.3928 and former congestion) before wave 5 presses against 1.4000.Again, there is no change to the outlook for higher prices as the trend remains up.
   
Strategy:Look to enter long close to 1.3800, against 1.3719, target 1.4000
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0913techs3.gif
Commentary:Very near term, allow for a drop below 114.51 to complete a correction in small wave ii before a strong rally gets underway in wave iii of c of 2.From yesterday “The 5 wave rally from 112.59 shifts focus to the upside.The count that we are presenting today is one that we have been following for quite some time.It has a flat ended at 112.59 as wave b of 2 in an a-b-c correction from 111.59.Wave c is now underway towards the 100% extension of 111.59-117.12/112.59 at 118.12 (this is also close to the 50% of 124.13-111.59 at 117.86).A rally to 118.12 would complete larger wave 2 within the 5 wave bearish sequence from 124.13 and give way to the next leg lower.”   
   
Strategy: Bullish close to 114.50, against 112.59, target 118.00
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0914techs4.gif
Commentary: We turned bearish on Wednesday and wrote yesterday that “the decline can be counted as a 5 wave decline so look for at least one more leg lower.Near term resistance is at 2.0294.”Cable spiked to 2.0345 yesterday afternoon before falling over 200 pips.Price is currently testing the 161.8% extension of 2.0366-2.0233/2.0345 at 2.0131, so a bounce from this level is possible.However, the structure looks bearish as the GBPUSD could be entering a 3rd of a 3rd wave down.If this is the case, then we’ll see much lower levels relatively soon (a break of 2.0043).This very aggressive bearish count is intact as long as price is below 2.0224.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0914techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “drop below 1.1815 satisfies minimum expectations for the decline and that a larger correction was underway.”A correction is underway, but not the larger one that we thought was underway.It seems as though an expanded flat is unfolding from the wave 3 low as the 4th wave.Expect a spike through 1.1898 to complete the correction before price rolls over and comes back under 1.1800.   
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0914techs6.gif
Commentary:With no evidence of a bottom, we must remain bearish.A correction of the 5 wave decline from 1.0591 may be unfolding now.Wave c of the correction may be underway now and is expected to exceed 1.0362 (origin of wave a) before bearish potential returns.A deeper correction could test 1.0445 (former 4th wave).
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:Price remains below the 61.8% of .8870-.7673, but the decline off of the high (.8437) is undoubtedly corrective.One more leg of the correction (wave c) is expected to come under .8342 and possibly test .8324 before the next leg higher begins.The corrective action warrants a bullish bias as long as price is above .8171.
Strategy: Look to get bullish near .8324, against .8171, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0914techs8.gif
Commentary: The Kiwi structure is unfolding as expected.That is, the rally from .6824 is impulsive (5 waves), indicating additional upside potential.Near term, expect a drop below .7064 to complete a the correction from .7185 before the next advance.The confluence of the 38.2% of .6824-.7185 / 9/12 low at .7044/47 is potentially strong support.

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6824, target above .7272
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 12:48

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Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the EURUSD continues to rally and is approaching the 1.3900 figure.Measured resistance is at 1.3910 (100% extension of 1.3360-1.3719/1.3551).There is potential for a rally to the 161.8% at 1.4132 as well, but likely next week.See our special technical report on the EURUSD from Friday at EURUSD 1.40 for more analysis.”Near term, the 5 wave rally from 1.3778 may have completed wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3360.If this is the case, then we expect a wave 4 correction to end near 1.3784 (38.2% of 1.3551-1.3928 and former congestion) before wave 5 presses against 1.4000.Again, there is no change to the outlook for higher prices as the trend remains up.
   
Strategy:Exit longs at market
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0913techs3.gif
Commentary:The 5 wave rally from 112.59 shifts focus to the upside.The count that we are presenting today is one that we have been following for quite some time.It has a flat ended at 112.59 as wave b of 2 in an a-b-c correction from 111.59.Wave c is now underway towards the 100% extension of 111.59-117.12/112.59 at 118.12 (this is also close to the 50% of 124.13-111.59 at 117.86).A rally to 118.12 would complete larger wave 2 within the 5 wave bearish sequence from 124.13 and give way to the next leg lower.
   
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0913techs4.gif
Commentary: We presented an alternate pattern yesterday and wrote that “the wedge shape of the rally from 2.0043 could be an ending diagonal in wave C within an A-B-C from 1.9651.It is also possible that the diagonal is wave i within a 5 wave bullish cycle from 2.0043.Either way, a pullback to at least 2.0235 is expected.”Cable dropped to 2.0233 this morning.The decline can be counted as a 5 wave decline so look for at least one more leg lower.Near term resistance is at 2.0294.See GBPUSD Top for additional analysis.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:The drop below 1.1815 satisfies minimum expectations for the decline from 1.1898.We wrote yesterday that “this decline from 1.1898 is wave 5 in the 5 wave decline from 1.2151 so risk of an upward correction back to 1.1900 or so increases with every tick lower.”That correction appears underway now.   
Strategy:Exit shorts at market
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Commentary:We wrote yesterday to“favor the downside for a test of 1.0340 as long as price is below 1.0591.”The USDCAD registered a new low at 1.0313 this morning.A major reversal is likely to take place soon so shorts should keep risk tight.This morning’s low tagged the 3 year support line and there is major bullish divergence with weekly oscillators.The wave count is not labeled on this chart but it also suggests that a multi-month (possibly multi-year low) is close.There is obviously no sign of a low yet. We will wait for a 5 wave rally on the intraday chart followed by a 3 wave setback before taking a bullish stand.
Strategy: Flat

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0913techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the pattern since the 8/27 high at .8333 is certainly corrective but so is the rally leg from .7673 to .8333.The evidence suggests that a large complex correction is unfolding and that there will be one more rally leg (above .8333).”The Aussie has pushed through .8333 and tested the 61.8% of .8870-.7673 at .8413.Potential support is at .8324 but the stalling at the 61.8% warrants a cautious bearish stand against .8437 for a larger turn.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0913techs8.gif
Commentary: The Kiwi structure is unfolding as expected.That is, the rally from .6824 is impulsive (5 waves), indicating additional upside potential.Near term, expect a drop below .7071 to complete a small correction from .7159 before the next advance.A rally through .7272 would possibly complete an a-b-c correction from .6639 (much like the AUDUSD may have already done).   

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6824, target above .7272
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 12:50

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Commentary:There is no reason to change the outlook at this point for a new high (above 1.3852), especially considering that the pair nearly reached that level this morning.Very short term, there is risk of a larger pullback given the bearish divergence with RSI on the hourly.Still, the bias is bullish as long as price is above 1.3663.   
   
Strategy:Remain bullish, risk is at 1.3663, target above 1.3852
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0911techs3.gif
Commentary:Near term, a small triangle has unfolded following the rally from 112.59.Look for a terminal thrust from the triangle to test the 61.8% of 115.63-112.59 at 114.47 before a top and reversal.The larger bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 115.63.We expect a drop under 112.59 following a top and reversal near 114.47.
   
Strategy: Look to get bearish near 114.47, against 115.63, target below 112.59
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0911techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “we favor a drop below 2.0243 to complete a flat correction and then the strong rally.The bullish scenario is best served by this since the rally from 2.0243 takes on a 3 wave corrective form and is most likely a small wave b.”After dropping below 2.0243, Cable has turned higher and a third wave rally could be underway from 2.0235 after a series of 1 and 2 waves from 2.0043.The bullish objective is above 2.0654.
Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 2.0235 (from 2.0159), target above 2.0654
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0911techs5.gif
Commentary:The count that calls for a new low (below 1.1815) continues to track well.Continue to favor the downside and a break of 1.1815.A bearish objective is at 1.1793 (161.8% extension of 1.2215-1.1993/1.2151).We wrote yesterday that “resistance should be strong up to 1.1925 (former congestion).The next day could see some choppy trading take place in the wave 4 position before a test of 1.1815 and lower.Still though, favor the downside.”Wave 4 that we were expecting to take place may be complete at 1.1895.
Strategy:Remain bearish, move risk to 1.1895 (from 1.993), target 1.1795
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0911techs6.gif
Commentary:Is the USDCAD finally showing some directional bias?It appears that way as the pair has come under the neckline from a head and shoulders continuation pattern.Also, the decline from 1.0591 looks impulsive.Favor the downside for a test of 1.0340 as long as price is below 1.0591.   
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary:After breaking below the short term support line drawn off of the 8/29 and 8/31 lows, the AUDUSD rallied right back to .8290, negating our bearish bias.The pattern since the 8/27 high at .8333 is certainly corrective but so is the rally leg from .7673 to .8333.The evidence suggests that a large complex correction is unfolding and that there will be one more rally leg (above .8333).However, it is unclear whether or not this rally will occur before or after a drop below .8171.If a triangle is unfolding, then the break higher will occur with .8171 remaining intact.For this reason, a cautious bullish bias is warranted.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0911techs8.gif
Commentary: On Friday, we wrote “look for a drop below .6834 to complete the decline from .7272, which would be wave b in the correction from .6639.Potential support is the 78.6% of .6639-.7272 at .6775.A strong rally in wave c is expected to register a new (above .7272).”Afer dropping below .6834, Kiwi has reversed and is working higher so there is no change to the outlook for a continued rally.A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above .6824.   

Strategy:Bullish now, against .6824, target above .7272
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif

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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 12:51

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs2.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “the rally from 1.3551 is in 5 waves itself and suggests additional gains as long as price is above 1.3551.Allow for some weakness to be followed by a strong rally in wave iii of 3.This short term outlook is negated on a drop under 1.3551.”Patterns continue to unfold in a bullish manner.That is, the decline from 1.3709-1.3663 is in 3 waves (corrective).Whether this is just the first leg of a bigger correction back to 1.3635 remains to be seen.Subjectively, we favor a deeper correction (back to at least 1.3635) before the next advance.   
   
Strategy:Remain bullish, risk is at 1.3551, target above 1.3852http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs3.gifCommentary:We proposed a bearish triangle interpretation yesterday that would call for a terminal thrust lower (possibly below 111.59).A new low below 114.80 at the least is expected as the rally from there is clearly a 3 wave advance ending in a spike high last night at 115.63.Favor the bearish side as long as price is below 116.46 as the decline from there is impulsive.Very short term, favor the bear side below 115.63.A break below 114.80 places focus on 114.35 ans subsequently the 61.8% of 111.59-117.12 at 113.70.                     
   
Strategy: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs4.gifCommentary: Cable is tracking our count.5 waves ended at 2.0233, so we are looking for a decline to at least the prior 4th wave at 1.9961.The 61.8% of 1.9651-2.0233 at 1.9874 is also a potential bottoming point.The rally this morning to 2.0262 is most likely wave b within a flat correction.Look for wave c of the correction to bring price just below 2.0043 before the larger rally resumes.An alternate count has a diagonal unfolding from 1.9961, in which case a new high would be registered before a return to 1.9961 (this count is shown in black).

Strategy: Flathttp://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs5.gifCommentary:The count is tracking perfectly.“The clear 5 wave decline from 1.2151 to 1.2010 confirms that the thrust below 1.1815 is in its early stages.Allow for a 3 wave correction to at least 1.2062 and possibly 1.2097 (61.8% of 1.2151-1.2010).That sets up an opportunity to get aggressively bearish against 1.2151 for wave iii of 3 lower.”Waves a and b of the correction are complete and wave c should bring price back to at least 1.2062.   Strategy:Remain bearish, risk at 1.215, target below 1.1815http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs6.gifCommentary:USDCAD price action remain choppy.The head and shoulders continuation pattern is on the verge of confirmation as price has tested the neckline this morning.However, the structure of the decline is not clear, which makes going with this break dangerous.The longer term wave structure also gives scope to a major reversal.This is why we favor playing a break above 1.0676.At the current juncture, the pair is testing the neckline and a break could see a quick test of the 1.0340 level.   Strategy: Bullish on a break above 1.0676, against 1.0340, target TBDhttp://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs7.gifCommentary:No change in the AUDUSD as the pair trades in a tight range.“The rally from .8051 is most likely wave b of B within an A-B-C from .7673.Look for a drop below .8051 and possible test of the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 at .7925.A bullish opportunity presents itself there as we would then look for price to turn higher in wave C of the correction from .7673 and eventually test the 61.8% of .8870-.7673 at .8412.”

Strategy: Flathttp://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs8.gifCommentary: Look for a drop below .6834 to complete the decline from .7272, which would be wave b in the correction from .6639.Potential support is the 78.6% of .6639-.7272 at .6775.A strong rally in wave c is expected to register a new (above .7272).   

Strategy:Flat (look to get bullish close to .6775, against .6639, target above .7272JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0907techs9.gif
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist of DailyFX.com

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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:03

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0906techs2.gif
Commentary:We have favored the downside because we were looking for a deeper decline to more fully correct the 5 wave advance from 1.3360-1.3718.This is still possible but the rally from 1.3551 is in 5 waves itself and suggests additional gains as long as price is above1.3551.Allow for some weakness to be followed by a strong rally in wave iii of 3.This short term outlook is negated on a drop under 1.3551.
   
Strategy:Flip to bullish, risk is at 1.3551, target above 1.3852
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0906techs3.gif
Commentary:Continue to wait out this correction.There are multiple possibilities but one that we are following has the entire rally and correction from 111.59 as a triangle.This would mean that wave E of the triangle is unfolding now and will end before 116.46 before a terminal thrust lower (below 111.59).We are showing this count today.Another count treats the 111.59-117.12 rally as wave A with a triangle unfolding in wave B.What would follow is some additional consolidation followed by a thrust towards 119.00 in wave C before a top and reversal.Either way, look for additional consolidation before a break.From a trading perspective, go with the break (below 113.85 and above 117.12).   
   
Strategy: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0906techs4.gif
Commentary: Cable is tracking our count.5 waves ended at 2.0233, so we are looking for a decline to at least the prior 4th wave at 1.9961.The 61.8% of 1.9651-2.0233 at 1.9874 is also a potential bottoming point.The rally this morning to 2.0262 is most likely wave b within a flat correction.Look for wave c of the correction to bring price just below 2.0043 before the larger rally resumes.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0906techs5.gif
Commentary:The count is tracking perfectly.We wrote yesterday that an expanded flat may have ended at 1.2151 and to remain bearish as long as price is below 1.2215.The clear 5 wave decline from 1.2151 to 1.2010 confirms that the thrust below 1.1815 is in its early stages.Allow for a 3 wave correction to at least 1.2062 and possibly 1.2097 (61.8% of 1.2151-1.2010).That sets up an opportunity to get aggressively bearish against 1.2151 for wave iii of 3 lower.   
Strategy:Remain bearish, move risk to 1.2151 (from 1.2215), target below 1.1815
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0906techs6.gif
Commentary:USDCAD price action remain choppy.The head and shoulders continuation pattern is on the verge of confirmation as price has tested the neckline this morning.However, the structure of the decline is not clear, which makes going with this break dangerous.The longer term wave structure also gives scope to a major reversal.This is why we favor playing a break above 1.0676.   
Strategy: Bullish on a break above 1.0676, against 1.0340, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0906techs7.gif
Commentary:The rally from .8051 is most likely wave b of B within an A-B-C from .7673.Look for a drop below .8051 and possible test of the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 at .7925.A bullish opportunity presents itself there as we would then look for price to turn higher in wave C of the correction from .7673 and eventually test the 61.8% of .8870-.7673 at .8412.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0906techs8.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “Kiwi has falied to turn higher, opening up the possibility of a test of .6869.The next potential support level would be the 78.6% at .6775 followed by the low at .6639.Given the outlook for the Aussie, we expect one more rally leg (above .7272) before the next major bear wave.”Allow for a bit more weakness towards the 78.6% at .6775 before a strong rally above .7272.   

Strategy:Flat (look to get bullish close to .6775, against .6639, target above .7272
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:18

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0905techs2.gif
Commentary:Continue to favor the downside.We wrote yesterday that “a decline should unfold correctively with potential for a bottom to form near 1.3497 (61.8% of 1.3360-1.3719).”This count appears to be on track.Another count has the entire rally from 1.3360 as larger wave B within a more complex correction from 1.3852.If this is the correct count, then wave C of the correction should be underway now and the decline should accelerate soon.Dropping mich below 1.3497 favors the latter scenario.Either way, both scenarios are near term bearish.
   
Strategy:Remain Bearish, move risk to 1.3728, target 1.3510 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0905techs3.gif
Commentary:The USDJPY continues to trade in a range but a break below 115.33 gives scope to a test of the 61.8% of 113.86-116.61 at 114.91.There are many possibilities right now.A triangle could be unfolding as wave B within the large A-B-C correction from 111.59, or a flat as wave B, or wave C may be underway from 113.85.We can say that “the USDJPY has traced out 5 waves lower (which is large wave 1)from 124.13 to 111.59, indicating a large degree trend change.”Since the low at 111.59, an A-B-C correction is unfolding as large wave 2, although, as mentioned, the strucutre of that decline is not clear.A cautious bearish bias is warranted now, against 116.46, as there are 5 waves down from 116.46 to 115.64.One possible outcome is detailed in the chart above.
   
Strategy: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0905techs4.gif
Commentary: The structure of Cable is similar to the EURUSD.   5 waves higher may have ended at 2.0233, so we are looking for a decline to at least the prior 4th wave at 1.9961.The 61.8% of 1.9651-2.0233 at 1.9874 is also a potential bottoming point. An alternate count is much more bearish and places Cable in a large wave C decline from 2.0233 within a larger complex correction from 2.0632.As is the case with the EURUSD, the structure of the decline will alert us to the proper count (if in 5 waves, then favor the more bearish count).

Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0905techs5.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the outlook that calls for a terminal thrust to come under 1.1815 while 1.2215 remains intact.“The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high.Everything since has been a correction.However, the correction is not complete.A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y).Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction.The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower.As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.”Near term, price just tested the 61.8% of 1.2215-1.1993 (wave 1 of Y).1.2135 may be the top of wave 2 of Y, so this is a high probability, high reward/risk bearish entry.The rally from 1.1993 is clearly corrective as the waves are choppy and overlapping.
Strategy:Remain bearish, against, 1.2215, target below 1.1815
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0905techs6.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the outlook that calls for a terminal thrust to come under 1.1815 while 1.2215 remains intact.“The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high.Everything since has been a correction.However, the correction is not complete.A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y).Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction.The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower.As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.”Near term, price just tested the 61.8% of 1.2215-1.1993 (wave 1 of Y).1.2135 may be the top of wave 2 of Y, so this is a high probability, high reward/risk bearish entry.The rally from 1.1993 is clearly corrective as the waves are choppy and overlapping.
Strategy:Remain bearish, against, 1.2215, target below 1.1815
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0905techs7.gif
Commentary:The rally from .8051 is most likely wave b of B within an A-B-C from .7673.Look for a drop below .8051 and possible test of the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 at .7925.A bullish opportunity presents itself there as we would then look for price to turn higher in wave C of the correction from .7673 and eventually test the 61.8% of .8870-.7673 at .8412.

Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0905techs8.gif
Commentary: The NZDUSD already tested the 61.8% of .6639-.7272 at .6881, so it has been out contention that a b wave low was already in place at .6869.However, Kiwi has falied to turn higher, opening up the possibility of a test of .6869.The next potential support level would be the 78.6% at .6775 followed by the low at .6639.Given the outlook for the Aussie, we expect one more rally leg (above .7272) before the next major bear wave.   

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6869, target .7500
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:19

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs2.gif
Commentary:There is little change from yesterday.We wrote yesterday that “it is possible that 5 waves higher are complete at 1.3719.A decline should unfold then correctively with potential for a bottom to form near 1.3497 (61.8% of 1.3360-1.3719).”This count appears to be on track, look for the decline towards 1.3497 to accelerate soon. “ Another count has the entire rally from 1.3360 as larger wave B within a more complex correction from 1.3852.If this is a correct count, then wave C of the correction may be underway from 1.3719 and price is headed much lower, below 1.3360 and to the 1.3000 area.Either way, look lower near term.If the decline from 1.3719 unfolds in 5 waves (impulse), then the count that has the EURUSD headed below 1.3360 will be favored.”
   
Strategy:Remain Bearish, against 1.3719, target 1.3510 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs3.gif
Commentary:“Bigger picture, the USDJPY has traced out 5 waves lower (which is large wave 1)from 124.13 to 111.59, indicating a large degree trend change.Since the low at 111.59, it is our contention that an A-B-C correction is unfolding as large wave 2.Within this A-B-C, wave C might be underway from 113.86, targeting 119.34 (61.8% of 124.13-111.59) to complete wave 2 from 111.59.The best opportunity will be to the downside for wave 3 lower so look for a top and reversal near 119.00/50”.Even shorter trerm, wave b of B could crop under 113.86 in order to test the 61.8% of 111.59-117.12 at 113.70 (or the 78.6% at 112.78) before wave c of B advances towards the 119.00 level.If this proposed count is correct, then the declice should accelerate soon and price needs to remain below 116.61 (preferably below 116.10).
   
Strategy: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs4.gif
Commentary: The structure of Cable is similar to the EURUSD.   5 waves higher may have ended at 2.0233, so we are looking for a decline to at least the prior 4th wave at 1.9961.The 61.8% of 1.9651-2.0233 at 1.9874 is also a potential bottoming point. An alternate count is much more bearish and places Cable in a large wave C decline from 2.0233 within a larger complex correction from 2.0632.As is the case with the EURUSD, the structure of the decline will alert us to the proper count (if in 5 waves, then favor the more bearish count).

Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs5.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the outlook that calls for a terminal thrust to come under 1.1815 while 1.2215 remains intact.“The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high.Everything since has been a correction.However, the correction is not complete.A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y).Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction.The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower.As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.”Near term, price just tested the 61.8% of 1.2215-1.1993 (wave 1 of Y).1.2135 may be the top of wave 2 of Y, so this is a high probability, high reward/risk bearish entry.
Strategy:Bearish now, against, 1.2215, target below 1.1815
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs6.gif
Commentary:Near term USDCAD price action is choppy and corrective, which makes trading this pair on a short term basis risky right now.When price action is choppy, we prefer to sit tight and wait for a clearer pattern to emerge. The longer term charts (we are showing the weekly today) indicate that a significant bottom may be in place at 1.0340.A rally above 1.0676 most likely leads to a break above 1.0866.Short term, there is a possible head and shoulders continuation pattern, which is bearish.This pattern would suggest a retest of 1.0340 while 1.0676 remains intact.
Strategy: Bullish on a break above 1.0676, against 1.0340, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD is correcting the .8870-.7673 decline and is in a similar position as the USDJPY.Price could come under .8051 to test the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 in a b wave before proceeding higher in wave c to complete the correction from .7673….or a larger wave B wave bottom may already be in place and price could continue higher from above .8051 to complete the C wave.A rally through .8234 favors the latter scenario and a drop under .8051 favors the former.

Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs8.gif
Commentary:Naturally, the Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD.Since the NZDUSD already tested the 61.8% of .6639-.7272 at .6881, it seems more likely that a B wave low is already in place at .6869 and that price is headed higher in wave C to test .7500 before a reversal..7501 is the 100% extension of .6639-.7272/.6869 and .7547 is the 61.8% retracement of .8082-.6639.If price fails to remain above .6868, then a test of the low at .6639 would be favored.   

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6869, target .7500
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/0904techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:32

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/9.03.01.gif

Commentary:We are working with a few counts currently but both point lower near term.
It is possible that 5 waves higher are complete at 1.3719.
A decline should unfold then correctively with potential for a bottom to form near 1.3497 (61.8% of 1.3360-1.3719).
Another count has the entire rally from 1.3360 as larger wave B within a more complex correction from 1.3852.
If this is a correct count, then wave C of the correction may be underway from 1.3719 and price is headed much lower, below 1.3360 and to the 1.3000 area.
Either way, look lower near term.
If the decline from 1.3719 unfolds in 5 waves (impulse), then the count that has the EURUSD headed below 1.3360 will be favored.
   
Strategy:Bearish now, against 1.3719, target 1.3510 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/9.03.02.gif

Commentary:Bigger picture, the USDJPY has traced out 5 waves lower (which is large wave 1)from 124.13 to 111.59, indicating a large degree trend change.Since the low at 111.59, it is our contention that an A-B-C correction is unfolding as large wave 2.Within this A-B-C, wave C might be underway from 113.86, targeting 119.34 (61.8% of 124.13-111.59) to complete wave 2 from 111.59.The best opportunity will be to the downside for wave 3 lower so look for a top and reversal near 119.00/50
   
Strategy: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/9.03.03.gif
Commentary: The structure of Cable is similar to the EURUSD.
5 waves higher may have ended at 2.0233, so we are looking for a decline to at least the prior 4th wave at 1.9961.
The 61.8% of 1.9651-2.0233 is also a potential bottoming point. An alternate count is much more bearish and places Cable in a large wave C decline from 2.0233 within a larger complex correction from 2.0632.
Strategy: Move to flat (previously bullish)

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/9.03.04.gif
Commentary:There is no change to the outlook that calls for a terminal thrust to come under 1.1815 while 1.2215 remains intact.
“The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high.Everything since has been a correction.However, the correction is not complete.A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y).Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction.The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower.As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.”

Strategy:Flat (best idea here is to sell breaks lower….first bearish pivot at 1.1960)


http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/9.03.05.gif


Commentary:Near term USDCAD price action is choppy and corrective as well, which makes trading this pair on a short term basis risky right now.When price action is choppy, we prefer to sit tight and wait for a clearer pattern to emerge. The longer term charts (we are showing the weekly today) indicate that a significant bottom may be in place at 1.0340.A rally above 1.0676 most likely leads to a break above 1.0866.Short term, there is a possible head and shoulders continuation pattern, which is bearish.This pattern would suggest a retest of 1.0340 while 1.0676 remains intact.


Strategy: Bullish on a break above 1.0676, against 1.0340, target TBD


http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/9.03.06.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD is correcting the .8870-.7673 decline.The 3 wave movements at varrying degrees of trend make this clear.There are a number of possibilities right now, too many to take a strong stand one way or the other.Price could come under .8051 to test the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 in a b wave before proceeding higher in wave c to complete the correction from .7673….or a b wave bottom may already be in place and price could continue higher from above .8051 to complete the c wave.A rally through .8234 favors the latter scenario and a drop under .8051 favors the former.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/09/dailyfx_reports/Technicals/9.03.07.gif
Commentary:Naturally, the Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD.Since the NZDUSD already tested the 61.8% of .6639-.7272 at .6881, it seems more likely that a B wave low is already in place at .6869 and that price is headed higher in wave C to test .7500 before a reversal..7501 is the 100% extension of .6639-.7272/.6869 and .7547 is the 61.8% retracement of .8082-.6639.   

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6869, target .7500

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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:46

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_2.gif
Commentary:Potential remains for a push to the 1.3750 area before a reversal back towards at least 1.3463.   The rally from 1.3360 may be an initial 5 wave advance within a larger rally sequence but even if that is the case, a correction would be expected to play out to at least 1.3563 (former 4th wave).The structure of the decline from 1.3718 will give us a better idea of the larger trend.A break of the short term supporting trendline would warrant a bearish bias.
   
Strategy:Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_3.gif
Commentary:Bigger picture, the USDJPY has traced out 5 waves lower (which is large wave 1)from 124.13 to 111.59, indicating a large degree trend change.Since the low at 111.59, it is our contention that an A-B-C correction is unfolding as large wave 2.Within this A-B-C, wave C might be underway from 113.86.We wrote yesterday that “a break above 116.24 warrants a bullish stance against 115.22, targeting 119.34 (61.8% of 124.13-111.59) for the completion of wave C (wave 2).The best opportunity will be to the downside for wave 3 lower.This most likely will not present itself until next week.”The pair did break above 116.24 so favor the upside until 119.34 (we will look for a top and reversal near there next week).
   
Strategy: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_4.gif

Commentary: The structure of Cable is virtually the same as the EURUSD.That is, in the intermediate term, we expect both pairs to turn lower and head much lower.However, just as the EURUSD seems poised to test 1.3750, the GBPUSD appears that it will continue towards the 61.8% of 2.0654-1.9651 at 2.0271 before reversing to at least 1.9961.We can not ignore the fact that setbacks since 8/17 have occurred in 3 waves.3 means indicates countertrend movements, therefore the near term trend is pointed higher.In summary, look for a top and reversal near the 61.8% of 2.0654-1.9651 at 2.0271 with the initial bearish objective at 1.9961.
Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 2.0043, (from 1.9961), target 2.0271 and 2.0439 (move to BE after T1 hit)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_5.gif
Commentary:With price action remaining choppy on a short term basis, we are showing the daily chart today for perspective.The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high.Everything since has been a correction.However, the correction is not complete.A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y).Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction.The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower.As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.

Strategy:Flat (best idea here is to sell breaks lower….first bearish pivot at 1.1960)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_6.gif
Commentary:Near term USDCAD price action is choppy and corrective as well, which makes trading this pair on a short term basis risky right now.When price action is choppy, we prefer to sit tight and wait for a clearer pattern to emerge. The longer term charts (we are showing the weekly today) indicate that a significant bottom may be in place at 1.0340.A rally above 1.0676 most likely leads to a break above 1.0866.Short term, there is a possible head and shoulders continuation pattern, which is bearish.This pattern would suggest a retest of 1.0340 is in order before a reversal occurs.
Strategy: Flat

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD is correcting the .8870-.7673 decline.The 3 wave movements at varrying degrees of trend make this clear.There are a number of possibilities right now, too many to take a strong stand one way or the other.Price could come under .8051 to test the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 in a b wave before proceeding higher in wave c to complete the correction from .7673….or a b wave bottom may already be in place and price could continue higher from above .8051 to complete the c wave.A rally through .8234 favors the latter scenario and a drop under .8051 favors the former.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_8.gif
Commentary:Naturally, the Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD.Since the NZDUSD already tested the 61.8% of .6639-.7272 at .6881, it seems more likely that a B wave low is already in place at .6869 and that price is headed higher in wave C to test .7500 before a reversal..7501 is the 100% extension of .6639-.7272/.6869 and .7547 is the 61.8% retracement of .8082-.6639.   

Strategy:Remain bullish, against .6869, target .7500

***JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTREND uses the last 4 weeks of price data (highs, lows, closes).An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/Technicals_08-31-2007_9.gif

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist of DailyFX.com
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:50

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0830techs2.gif
Commentary:Little to add to the EURUSD as last night/this morning’s rally came within pips of 1.3684.Potential does remain for a push to the 1.3750 area before a reversal.   However, the advance from 1.3360 has stalled near the 61.8% retracement from the top (1.3852) to 1.3360.The idea that a larger more complex correction is playing out from 1.3852 strengthens each day that the EURUSD fails to make a new high.As we have decribed in recent days, our favored view is that the decline from the top(1.3852) is large wave A and the advance from 1.3360 is large wave B (which may be complete at 1.3684).Large wave C is expected to eventually come under 1.3360.This decline will most likely be extremely fast.At this point, a cautious bearish bias is warranted below 1.3684.A break of 1.3563 instills confidence in the bearish bias.   
   
Strategy:Flat, bearish on a break below 1.3563
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0830techs3.gif
Commentary:Bigger picture, the USDJPY has traced out 5 waves lower (which is large wave 1)from 124.13 to 111.59, indicating a large degree trend change.Since the low at 111.59, it is our contention that an A-B-C correction is unfolding as large wave 2.Within this A-B-C, wave C might be underway from 113.86.A break above 116.24 warrants a bullish stance against 115.22, targeting 119.34 (61.8% of 124.13-111.59) for the completion of wave C (wave 2).The best opportunity will be to the downside for wave 3 lower.This most likely will not present itself until next week.
   

Strategy: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0830techs4.gif
Commentary: The structure of Cable is virtually the same as the EURUSD.That is, in the intermediate term, we expect both pairs to turn lower and head much lower.However, just as the EURUSD could make a new high before reversing (1.3750??), the GBPUSD appears that it too will make a new high.We can not ignore the fact that setbacks since 8/17 have occurred in 3 waves.3 means indicates countertrend movements, therefore the trend is pointed higher.Look for a top and reversal near the 61.8% of 2.0654-1.9651 at 2.0271.
Strategy: Short term trade idea - bullish against 1.9961, target 2.0271 and 2.0439 (move to BE after T1 hit)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0830techs5.gif
Commentary:With price action remaining choppy on a short term basis, we are showing the daily chart today for perspective.The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high.Everything since has been a correction.However, the correction is not complete.A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y).Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction.The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower.As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.

Strategy:Flat (best idea here is to sell breaks lower….first bearish pivot at 1.1960)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0830techs6.gif
Commentary:After briefly trading above 1.0666, the USDCAD has come off again.One possibility is that the rally from 1.0470 completed an expanded flat correction from 1.0531.However, the longer term charts (we are showing the weekly today) indicate that a significant bottom may be in place at 1.0340.A rally above 1.0676 most likely leads to a break above 1.0866.Short term, there is a possible head and shoulders continuation pattern, which is bearish.This pattern would suggest a retest of 1.0340 is in order before a reversal occurs.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0830techs7.gif
Commentary:A correction is undoubtedly playing out right now in the Aussie (all pairs actually).The 3 wave movements at carrying degrees of trend make this clear.There are a number of possibilities right now, too many to take a strong stand one way or the other.Price could come under .8051 to test the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 in a b wave before proceeding higher in wave c to complete the correction from .7673….or a b wave bottom may already be in place and price could continue higher from above .8051 to complete the c wave.A rally through .8234 favors the latter scenario and a drop under .8051 favors the former.
Strategy: Bearish Target 1 hit on AUDUSD at .8072, move to flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0830techs8.gif
Commentary:Naturally, the Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD.Since the NZDUSD already tested the 61.8% of .6639-.7272 at .6881, it seems more likely that a B wave low is already in place at .6869 and that price is headed higher in wave C to test .7500 before a reversal..7501 is the 100% extension of .6639-.7272/.6869 and .7547 is the 61.8% retracement of .8082-.6639.   

Strategy:Flip to bullish, against .6869, target .7500
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:52

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0829techs2.gif
Commentary:Potential remains for a push to the 1.3750 area and a reversal.   We warned yesterday though that “the advance from 1.3360 has stalled near the 61.8% retracement from the top (1.3852) to 1.3360.A larger more complex correction may be playing out.In this instance, the rally from 1.3360 would end up as an a-b-c rally with the rally from 1.3450 unfolding as wave c.Due to the extent of the decline from 1.3684 (which makes it unlikely that it is a 4th wave correction), a bearish bias is warranted on a break below 1.3563.
   
Strategy:Move to flat (from bullish), get bearish on a break below 1.3563
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0829techs3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “it is possible that a top is in place at 117.12 as the decline from 116.74 could very well extend.With this in mind, a bearish bias is warranted against 116.25.If the decline does extend, then potential support is at the 8/22 low of 113.98.”The bottom last night was at 113.86 but we are viewing the rally since as a correction of the decline from 116.74.We are unsure of the internal wave count at this point but as long as price is below 115.72, the trend is towards lower prices and an eventual break of 111.59.      
   

Strategy: Remain Bearish, move risk to 115.72 (from 116.25), target below 111.59
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0829techs4.gif
Commentary: Cable’s structure is unclear following the push above 2.0141 and therefore we will refrain from taking a strong stand either way this morning.“There are a few different valid wave counts at the current juncture but the one that we favor labels the entire decline from 2.0654 as large wave A.The rally since is large wave B (although the rally from 1.9651 could just be the first leg of wave B).Resistance should be strong near current levels, which is 2.0153 and 2.0271 (50%-61.8% of 2.0654-2.0153).The mentioned 161.8% is also at 2.0203 (middle of the fibo zone) and this is a previous congestion area.”
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0829techs5.gif
Commentary:With price action remaining choppy on a short term basis, we are showing the daily chart today for perspective.The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high.Everything since has been a correction.However, the correction is not complete.A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y).Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction.The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower.As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.

Strategy:Bearish, move risk to 1.2046 (from 1.2215), targets 1.1562 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0829techs6.gif
Commentary:After briefly trading above 1.0666, the USDCAD has come off again.One possibility is that the rally from 1.0470 completed an expanded flat correction from 1.0531.However, the longer term charts (we are showing the weekly today) indicate that a significant bottom may be in place at 1.0340.A rally above 1.0676 most likely leads to a break above 1.0866.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0829techs7.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “this morning’s rally from .8206 to .8278 is clearly in 3 waves (to this point).A break below .8206 warrants bearish action.”The Aussie broke below .8206 and continued on for a test of .8050.With the rally from .7673 to .8333 in a clear 3 waves (which is a correction), the dominant trend is down.
Strategy: Remain bearish, against .8333, targets .8072 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0829techs8.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “a small 5 waves down appears to have unfolded from .7272 to .7042 and a correction ended at .7149.Look lower.”Kiwi plummeted from .7149 to .6869 and the decline is an impulse.Similar to the Aussie, the rally from .6639 to .7272 is in 3 waves, indicating that the larger degree trend is down.   

Strategy:Bearish now, move risk to .7149 (from .7272), targets TBD
***JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTREND uses the last 4 weeks of price data (highs, lows, closes).An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0801techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:54

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0828techs2.gif
Commentary:There is no change in our call for a push to the 1.3750 area and reversal.   “We see potential for a third of a third wave to unfold towards the 161.8% extension of 1.3370-1.3546/1.3450 at 1.3734.The advance from 1.3360 has stalled near the 61.8% retracement from the top (1.3852) to 1.3360.A larger more complex correction may be playing out.In this instance, the rally from 1.3360 would end up as an a-b-c rally with the rally from 1.3450 unfolding as wave c (and in 5 waves).Even in this bearish alternate count, we expect a new high above 1.3684 before a reversal.The 78.6% at 1.3747 is a potential reversal point.”
   
Strategy:Remain bullish, move risk to 1.3618 (from 1.3540), target hit at 1.3620, second target is at 1.3730
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0828techs3.gif
Commentary:The high put in on Thursday at 117.12 remains intact but the decline since then is corrective to this point, leaving open the possibility that one more high will be registered (above 117.12).117.89 is a likely reversal point.This is the confluence of the 50% of 124.13-111.59 / 100% extension of 111.59-115.50/1113.98.We will be looking for a top and reversal near that point.However, it is possible that a top is in place at 117.12 as the decline from 116.74 could very well extend.With this in mind, a bearish bias is warranted against 116.25.If the decline does extend, then potential support is at the 8/22 low of 113.98.If 113.98 does hold, then a more complex correction is underway from the 111.59 low.However, the 3 wave setback from 111.59-117.12 indicates that the larger degree trend is still down and JPY pairs may very well blow by 113.98 and every other level for that matter before finding more significant support below 111.59 (which is our favored view).As we have seen since mid July, when the USDJPY breaks down, the moves tend to be sharp so bulls should be wary of initiating longs at potential support (keep in mind the word potential ).As the pattern unfolds, we will calculate bearish targets, but the favored view is for a break of 111.59.   

Strategy: Bearish against 116.25, target below 111.59
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0828techs4.gif
Commentary: There is no change from yesterday as Cable remains in virtually the same exact position as the EURUSD.“There are a few different valid wave counts at the current juncture but the one that we favor labels the entire decline from 2.0654 as large wave A.The rally since is large wave B (although the rally from 1.9651 could just be the first leg of wave B).Resistance should be strong near current levels, which is 2.0153 and 2.0271 (50%-61.8% of 2.0654-2.0153).The mentioned 161.8% is also at 2.0203 (middle of the fibo zone) and this is a previous congestion area.”Look for a reversal lower near current levels.
Strategy: Bullish targets hit (flat)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0828techs5.gif
Commentary:We continue to favor the idea that the USDCHF is thrusting lower from a longer term triangle.The decline should extend below 1.1815.“As continues to be the case, rallies have unfolded in 3 waves at varying degrees of trend, indicating to us that the larger trend is down.A break below 1.1990 instills confidence in the bearish case and gives scope to a test of the 8/6 low at 1.1815.The first bearish target is the 161.8% extension of 1.2215-1.1993/1.2111 at 1.1753.”Price has come under 1.1990, therefore we are confident that the near term path is down.
Strategy:Bearish, move risk to 1.2046 (from 1.2215), targets 1.1760 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0828techs6.gif
Commentary:We wrote last week to “look for a test of 1.0340 if 1.0531 gives way.”We continue to look lower as the USDCAD continues to test 1.0500.The 100% extension of 1.0866-1.0530/1.0666 is at 1.0331, close to the 7/24 low of 1.0340.This is an intial bearish target.The bearish case is strong as long as price is below 1.0666.1.0571 is near term resistance.Be careful though since the longer term wave structure strongly suggests that a significant bottom is due to form soon.Shorts should keep risk tight.
Strategy: Remain Bearish against 1.0666, target 1.0340
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0828techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD looks similar to cable in that the decline from the top (.8870) is in 3 waves.This leaves open several possibilities but we favor labeling the decline from .8870-.7675 as wave A.The rally from .7675 is wave B (or just the first leg of wave B) and may be close to complete.We wrote last week that “strength may continue until the 100% extension of .7675-.8092/.7955 at .8374.The 61.8% of .8870-.7675 at .8413 defends this level as well.”We have stated that we will be looking for a top and reversal near there but a top may be in at .8333.This morning’s rally from .8206 to .8278 is clearly in 3 waves (to this point).A break below .8206 warrants bearish action.
Strategy: Sell break of .8206, against .8333, targets .8072 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0828techs8.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “there are a few valid waves counts at the current juncture but look for a test of the 100% extension of .6639-.7026/.6886 at .7273 before reversal potential.”The high in the NZDUSD yesterday was at .7271, which is the 100% extension.A small 5 waves down would indicate bearish potential.For now, there is no evidence of a top.”A small 5 waves down appears to have unfolded from .7272 to .7042 and a correction ended at .7149.Look lower.

Strategy:Bearish now, against .7272, targets TBD
***JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTREND uses the last 4 weeks of price data (highs, lows, closes).An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0801techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 13:55

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0827techs2.gif
Commentary:We wrote last week that “we see potential for a third of a third wave to unfold towards the 161.8% extension of 1.3370-1.3546/1.3450 at 1.3734.”The EURUSD is closing in on the 1.3730 target.Near term support is at 1.3627.The advance from 1.3360 has stalled near the 61.8% retracement from the top (1.3852) to 1.3360.A larger more complex correction may be playing out.In this instance, the rally from 1.3360 would end up as an a-b-c rally with the rally from 1.3450 unfolding as wave c (and in 5 waves).Even in this bearish alternate count, we expect a new high above 1.3684 before a reversal.The 78.6% at 1.3747 is a potential reversal point.

Strategy:Remain bullish, move risk to 1.3540 (from 1.3450), target hit at 1.3620, second target is at 1.3730
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0827techs3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “former support at 117.20 may now be resistance.”The high put in on Thursday at 117.12 remains intact but the decline since then is corrective, suggesting that one more high will be registered.117.89 is a likely reversal point.This is the confluence of the 50% of 124.13-111.59 / 100% extension of 111.59-115.50/1113.98.We will be looking for a top and reversal near that point.   
   

Strategy: Look for a top and reversal near 117.90
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0827techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote last week that “given the ease with which Cable took out 2.0020, it is likely that we’ll see a test of 2.0203 (161.8% extension).”The pair has tested this level and Cable is in a potential reversal zone.There are a few different valid wave counts at the current juncture but the one that we favor labels the entire decline from 2.0654 as large wave A.The rally since is large wave B (although the rally from 1.9651 could just be the first leg of wave B).Resistance should be strong near current levels, which is 2.0153 and 2.0271 (50%-61.8% of 2.0654-2.0153).The mentioned 161.8% is also at 2.0203 (middle of the fibo zone) and this is a previous congestion area.
Strategy: Bullish targets hit (flat)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0827techs5.gif
Commentary:As continues to be the case, rallies have unfolded in 3 waves at varying degrees of trend, indicating to us that the larger trend is down.A break below 1.1990 instills confidence in the bearish case and gives scope to a test of the 8/6 low at 1.1815.The first bearish target is the 161.8% extension of 1.2215-1.1993/1.2111 at 1.1753.
Strategy:Bearish now, add to position on break of 1.1993, risk at 1.2215, move risk to 1.2111 on a break of 1.1993, targets 1.1760 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0827techs6.gif
Commentary: We wrote last week to “look for a test of 1.0340 if 1.0531 gives way.”We continue to look lower as the USDCAD has dropped below 1.0500.The 100% extension of 1.0866-1.0530/1.0666 is at 1.0331, close to the 7/24 low of 1.0340.This is an intial bearish target.The bearish case is strong as long as price is below 1.0666.1.0571 is near term resistance.
Strategy: Remain Bearish against 1.0666, target 1.0340
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0827techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD looks similar to cable in that the decline from the top (.8870) is in 3 waves.This leaves open several possibilities but we favor labeling the decline from .8870-.7675 as wave A.The rally from .7675 is wave B (or just the first leg of wave B).We wrote last week that “strength may continue until the 100% extension of .7675-.8092/.7955 at .8374.The 61.8% of .8870-.7675 at .8413 defends this level as well.”The Aussie is may very well challenge this level in the next few days.We will be looking for a top and reversal near there.
Strategy: Looking for a top and reversal near .8410
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0827techs8.gif
Commentary:Kiwi is in a similar situation (compare to the Aussie).Last week, we wrote that “there are a few valid waves counts at the current juncture but look for a test of the 100% extension of .6639-.7026/.6886 at .7273 before reversal potential.”The high in the NZDUSD today was at .7271, which is the 100% extension.A small 5 waves down would indicate bearish potential.For now, there is no evidence of a top.   

Strategy:Flat
***JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTREND uses the last 4 weeks of price data (highs, lows, closes).An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0801techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 14:09

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/082407.2.gif

Commentary:
The bullish EURUSD scenario continues.
However, we wrote yesterday to “Keep risk tight once price reaches 1.3626, which is the 100% extension.
A top and reversal there would indicate that a larger bearish cycle is likely underway from the top at 1.3852 (the alternate count is shown in black).”
Near term support is at 1.3534.



Strategy:
Remain bullish, against 1.3450, targets 1.3620 and 1.3730 (move to breakeven after 1.3620 is hit)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/082407.3.gif\
Commentary:
As we noted yesterday the USDJPY counter trend rally iis now running into a wall of resistance as the 117.00-118.30 area 19.34).
Former support at 117.20 may now be resistance as the pair bounces into the Fib 50%-61.% retrace box. Yesterday the pair failed to hold the 117.00 figure but may make secong attempt to rally higher before faling once again.




Strategy: Look for a top and reversal near 117.90

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/082407.4.gif

Commentary: Yesterday we wrote,” Given the ease with which Cable took out 2.0020, it is likely that we’ll see a test of 2.0203 (161.8% extension).
There are a few different valid wave counts at the current juncture but the one that we favor labels the entire decline from 2.0654 as large wave A.
The rally since is large wave B (although the rally from 1.9651 could just be the first leg of wave B).
Resistance should be strong between 2.0153 and 2.0271 (50%-61.8% of 2.0654-2.0153).
The mentioned 161.8% is also at 2.0203 (middle of the fibo zone) and this is a previous congestion area.” For the time being the price action in cable remains constructive to the upside as long as our support area of 1.9930 holds.


Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 1.9930 (from 1.9743), target 1 hit at 2.0020, target 2 is at 2.0200



http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/082407.5.gif

Commentary:
Our bear case spelled out in in the
special report on the USDCHF USDCHF Bear continues to unfold..
Near term, it looks like a top may be in place at 1.2111, so the 1.2130 short entry in the special report most likely will not be hit.
Rallies have unfolded in 3 waves at varying degrees of trend, indicating to us that the larger trend is down.
A break below 1.1993 instills confidence in the bearish case and gives scope to a test of the 8/6 low at 1.1815.
The first bearish target is the 161.8% extension of 1.2215-1.1993/1.2111 at 1.1753. For the time being the 1.2000 area is key and if it breaks it opens the possibility for the shapr move lower to retest the swing spike bottom at 1.1819

Strategy:
Bearish now, add to position on break of 1.1993, risk at 1.2215, move risk to 1.2111 on a break of 1.1993, targets 1.1760 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/082407.6.gif
Commentary:
As we noted yesterday, “The bearish case is strong as long as price is below 1.0666.” The price action continues to resolve to the downside with the pair touching the 1.0500 fugure in overnight trade. I yesterday’s commentary we stated that “The 100% extension of 1.0866-1.0530/1.0666 is at 1.0331, close to the 7/24 low of 1.0340.
This is an intial bearish target.
However the pauir will need to conclusively overcome the spike low at 1.0498 before inidicating further downside action.

Strategy: RemainBearish against 1.0666, target 1.0340
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/082407.7.gif
Commentary:
The Aussie remain in a pattern of congestion with resolution seemingly even divided between the upside an dteh downside. As we noted in yesterday’c commentary ,” This leaves open several possibilities but we favor labeling the decline from .8870-.7675 as wave A.
The rally from .7675 is wave B (or just the first leg of wave B).
Strength may continue until the 100% extension of .7675-.8092/.7955 at .8374.
The 61.8% of .8870-.7675 at .8413 defends this level as well.
Near term support is at .8120.
We do not feel confident enough in the pattern to take action.”

Strategy: Flat

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/082407.8.gif

Commentary: The kiwi has carved a
near identical pattern to the Aussi as the pair now encopunters overhead resitance from Fib retracments.
As we wrote, “There are a few valid waves counts at the current juncture but look for a test of the 100% extension of .6639-.7026/.6886 at .7273 before reversal potential.
A former 4th wave/congestion area (.7201) may also prove formidable as resistance.
We do not feel confident enough in the pattern to take action. “


Strategy:Flat

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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 14:12

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0823techs2.gif
Commentary:The bullish EURUSD scenario is playing out as expected.We wrote yesterday that “we see potential for a third of a third wave to unfold towards the 161.8% extension of 1.3370-1.3546/1.3450 at 1.3734.Keep risk tight though once price reaches 1.3626, which is the 100% extension.A top and reversal there would indicate that a larger bearish cycle is likely underway from the top at 1.3852 (the alternate count is shown in black).”Near term support is at 1.3534.
   
Strategy:Remain bullish, against 1.3450, targets 1.3620 and 1.3730 (move to breakeven after 1.3620 is hit)
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0823techs3.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “5 waves down from 124.13 appear complete so we expect this rally from 111.59 to unfold in a corrective manner and challenge the mentioned Fibonacci reversal zone (117.86 or 119.34).Former support at 117.20 may now be resistance.”The USDJPY tested 117.00 this morning.Viewing the very short term chart (15 min) in order to see the structure of wave c (from 113.98), it looks like one more high will be registered (above 117.12) before a top and reversal.117.89 is a likely reversal point.This is the confluence of the 50% of 124.13-111.59 / 100% extension of 111.59-115.50/1113.98.   
   

Strategy: Look for a top and reversal near 117.90
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0823techs4.gif
Commentary: The bullish bias has proved correct and the first target has been hit (2.0020).We wrote yesterday to “be careful if the 100% extension of 1.9651-1.9935/1.9743 at 2.0027 is reached as a top and reversal is possible there.A more bullish outcome has price testing the 161.8% at 2.0203.”Given the ease with which Cable took out 2.0020, it is likely that we’ll see a test of 2.0203 (161.8% extension).There are a few different valid wave counts at the current juncture but the one that we favor labels the entire decline from 2.0654 as large wave A.The rally since is large wave B (although the rally from 1.9651 could just be the first leg of wave B).Resistance should be strong between 2.0153 and 2.0271 (50%-61.8% of 2.0654-2.0153).The mentioned 161.8% is also at 2.0203 (middle of the fibo zone) and this is a previous congestion area.
Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 1.9930 (from 1.9743), target 1 hit at 2.0020, target 2 is at 2.0200
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0823techs5.gif
Commentary:See out special report on the USDCHF from yesterday at USDCHF Bear.Near term, it looks like a top may be in place at 1.2111, so the 1.2130 short entry in the special report most likely will not be hit.Rallies have unfolded in 3 waves at varying degrees of trend, indicating to us that the larger trend is down.A break below 1.1993 instills confidence in the bearish case and gives scope to a test of the 8/6 low at 1.1815.The first bearish target is the 161.8% extension of 1.2215-1.1993/1.2111 at 1.1753.
Strategy:Bearish now, add to position on break of 1.1993, risk at 1.2215, move risk to 1.2111 on a break of 1.1993, targets 1.1760 and TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0823techs6.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a top may be in place at 1.0666, although a more complex correction could unfold towards the mentioned 1.0738.Still, a cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.0666.Look for a test of 1.0340 if 1.0531 gives way.”1.0666 was the top and the USDCAD has come under 1.0530.The 100% extension of 1.0866-1.0530/1.0666 is at 1.0331, close to the 7/24 low of 1.0340.This is an intial bearish target.The bearish case is strong as long as price is below 1.0666.
Strategy: Remain Bearish against 1.0666, target 1.0340
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0823techs7.gif
Commentary:We has been looking for a top and reversal near the 38.2% of .8662-.7675 but the Aussie has surged higher.The AUDUSD looks similar to cable in that the decline from the top (.8870) is in 3 waves.This leaves open several possibilities but we favor labeling the decline from .8870-.7675 as wave A.The rally from .7675 is wave B (or just the first leg of wave B).Strength may continue until the 100% extension of .7675-.8092/.7955 at .8374.The 61.8% of .8870-.7675 at .8413 defends this level as well.Near term support is at .8120.We do not feel confident enough in the pattern to take action.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0823techs8.gif
Commentary: The same can be said for the NZDUSD as the pair has surged higher.There are a few valid waves counts at the current juncture but look for a test of the 100% extension of .6639-.7026/.6886 at .7273 before reversal potential.A former 4th wave/congestion area (.7201) may also prove formidable as resistance.We do not feel confident enough in the pattern to take action.   

Strategy:Flat

***JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTREND uses the last 4 weeks of price data (highs, lows, closes).An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0801techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 14:13

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0822techs2.gif
Commentary:The bullish EURUSD scenario is playing out as expected.There is a slight change in the wave count from yesterday, with the result being a more bullish count.We see potential for a third of a third wave to unfold towards the 161.8% extension of 1.3370-1.3546/1.3450 at 1.3734.Keep risk tight though once price reaches 1.3626, which is the 100% extension.A top and reversal there would indicate that a larger bearish cycle is likely underway from the top at 1.3852 (the alternate count is shown in black).This near term bullish bias is best served with 1.3450 remaining intact.
   
Strategy:Bullish now, against 1.3450, targets 1.3620 and 1.3730
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0822techs3.gif
Commentary:It remains our working assumption that “the rally from 111.59 may be the first leg of a 3 wave correction that will be larger wave 2.Potential reversa points prior to 119.83 are 117.86 and 119.34 (50% and 61.8% of 124.13-111.59).”5 waves down from 124.13 appear complete so we expect this rally from 111.59 to unfold in a corrective manner and challenge the mentioned Fibonacci reversal zone (117.86 or 119.34).Former support at 117.20 may now be resistance.Wave b of the correction that began at 111.59 may be complete at 113.98.A break above 115.50 gives scope to a test of the mentioned resistance levels.
   
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0822techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “it is still possible that the GBPUSD registers a new low (beneath 1.9651) in order to complete the decline from 2.0462, but it is also possible that a more bullish pattern is underway since the decline from 1.9935 is in 3 waves and the preceding rally from 1.9651 is an impulse (5 waves).The decline from 1.9935 also retraced about 61.8% of the advance from 1.9651.For this reason, a cautious bullish stance is warranted above 1.9743.”Cable has advanced to test the 1.9900 figure this morning and a push through 1.9935 strengthens the bullish case.Similar to the EURUSD, be careful if the 100% extension of 1.9651-1.9935/1.9743 at 2.0027 is reached as a top and reversal is possible there.A more bullish outcome has price testing the 161.8% at 2.0203. Either way, the near term bias is bullish as long as price is above 1.9743.
Strategy: Bullish above 1.9743, targets 2.0020 and 2.0200
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0822techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “downside potential remains.A drop under 1.1993 would complete 5 waves down from 1.2215.If this happens, then we will look for a corrective rally in order to get bearish.”A truncated 5th may have ended at 1.2012 and a correction is palying out now.If this is the case, then look for resistance near 1.2130 (61.8% of 1.2215-1.1993).It is possible that the next big move will be a third wave down, in which case, 1.1815 would give way quickly to much lower prices.   
Strategy:Look to get bearish near 1.2130, against 1.2215, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0822techs6.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “with the decline from 1.0866 to 1.0531 in 5 waves, at least one more down leg is expected.1.0657 is a potential reversal point (resistance) as is the 61.8% of 1.0866-1.0531 at 1.0738.Once we see evidence that the advance from 1.0531 is complete, we will publish bearish targets.”A top may be in place at 1.0666, although a more complex correction could unfold towards the mentioned 1.0738.Still, a cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.0666.Look for a test of 1.0340 if 1.0531 gives way.
Strategy: Bearish against 1.0666, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0822techs7.gif
Commentary:The AUDUSD has hardly budged therefore there is no change to the outlook.“The Aussie is in an interesting position right now.The advance from .7673 has stalled at the 38.2% of .8661-.7673.The rally is also in 3 waves so it is possible that a 4th wave is complete or close to complete at .8065.A drop under .7673 would complete 5 waves down from the top (.8870) and give scope to a large correction higher.”
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0822techs8.gif
Commentary: The same can be said for the NZDUSD as the pair remains confined to what we are treating as a 4th wave correction. “Kiwi is in a similar situation (compared to Aussie).That is, a 4th wave correction may be complete or close to complete at .7026.The 38.2% of .7701-.6639 is at .7045 and is potential resistance.A drop under .6639 would make the decline from the top (.8108) 5 waves.A large upward correction would follow.”

Strategy:Flat
***JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTREND uses the last 4 weeks of price data (highs, lows, closes).An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0801techs9.gif
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hefeiddd 发表于 2008-4-15 14:14

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0821techs2.gif
Commentary:There is little change to what we wrote yesterday, although the pattern has cleared up a bit.“The decline from 1.3838 is either large wave C to complete an A-B-C correction, wave 3 in a bearish sequence that began at 1.3852, or larger wave A to begin a larger correction from 1.3852.A rally above 1.3546 would make the advance from 1.3360 impulsive (5 waves) and favor additional gains.A rally through 1.3608 would eliminate the idea that wave 3 down unfolded from 1.3838.”With the rally this morning leaving a clear 3 wave correction from 1.3546 to 1.3456, it looks as though 1.3546 will be breached.As mentioned though, once that level is broken, risk of a correction right back to 1.3456 (or lower) will is high.
   
Strategy:Wait for a rally through 1.3546 with 1.3456 intact, then a correction back towards 1.3456 (or lower).That will offer an opportunity to get bullish.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0821techs3.gif
Commentary:It remains our working assumption that “the rally from 111.59 may be the first leg of a 3 wave correction that will be larger wave 2.Potential reversa points prior to 119.83 are 117.86 and 119.34 (50% and 61.8% of 124.13-111.59).”5 waves down from 124.13 appear complete so we expect this rally from 111.59 to unfold in a corrective manner and challenge the mentioned Fibonacci reversal zone (117.86 or 119.34).Former support at 117.20 may now be resistance.Near term, 113.73 (61.8% of 111.59-115.50) should be solid support.   

Strategy: Look to get bullish near 113.80, against 111.59, target 1 117.80
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0821techs4.gif
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “Cable appears to have some additional downside potential, but not before a push through 1.9935 occurs in order to complete a corrective advance (wave iv) from 1.9651.Following the completion of wave iv, we expect price to register a new low (beneath 1.9651) in what will be wave v of 3.A larger 4th wave correction would be expected following the new low.This view is favored as long as price is below 2.0155.”It is still possible that the GBPUSD registers a new low (beneath 1.9651) in order to complete the decline from 2.0462, but it is also possible that a more bullish pattern is underway since the decline from 1.9935 is in 3 waves and the preceding rally from 1.9651 is an impulse (5 waves).The decline from 1.9935 also retraced about 61.8% of the advance from 1.9651.For this reason, a cautious bullish stance is warranted above 1.9743.
Strategy: Bullish above 1.9743, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0821techs5.gif
Commentary:We wrote yesterday that “downside potential remains.A drop under 1.1993 would complete 5 waves down from 1.2215.If this happens, then we will look for a corrective rally in order to get bearish.”This pattern is the same as the EURUSD (but the inverse of course).It looks like price will launch an attack on 1.1993, so look for a pullback following a new low (under 1.1993).Initial resistance would be just under 1.2100.      
Strategy:Following a new low (under 1.1993), look for a pullback towards 1.2100 in order to get bearish against 1.2215.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0821techs6.gif
Commentary: For more on the USDCAD, see our special report at USDCAD - What's Next.With the decline from 1.0866 to 1.0531 in 5 waves, at least one more down leg is expected.1.0657 is a potential reversal point (resistance) as is the 61.8% of 1.0866-1.0531 at 1.0738.Once we see evidence that the advance from 1.0531 is complete, we will publish bearish targets.
Strategy: Look to gt bearish between 1.0657 and 1.0738, against 1.0866, target TBD
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0821techs7.gif
Commentary:The Aussie is in an interesting position right now.The advance from .7673 has stalled at the 38.2% of .8661-.7673.The rally is also in 3 waves so it is possible that a 4th wave is complete or close to complete at .8065.A drop under .7673 would complete 5 waves down from the top (.8870) and give scope to a large correction higher.
Strategy: Flat
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0821techs8.gif
Commentary: Kiwi is in a similar situation (compared to Aussie).That is, a 4th wave correction may be complete or close to complete at .7026.The 38.2% of .7701-.6639 is at .7045 and is potential resistance.A drop under .6639 would make the decline from the top (.8108) 5 waves.A large upward correction would follow.

Strategy:Flat
***JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.JTREND uses the last 4 weeks of price data (highs, lows, closes).An example is below.Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/08/dailyfx_reports/Techs/0801techs9.gif
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