Measured Move
In yesterday's video I mentioned the confluence of the 50% retracement of the 2002 low to the 2007 high and the measured move.
The measured move target is calculated by taking the high of 55.07 and subtracting from it the low at 41.05 which is 14.02 points or 25.45%. From peak to trough, that is the range of the first drive lower on the weekly timeframe below.
Using the 50.61 recovery high and subtracting 14.02 points would yield a downside target of 36.59. The actual low (so far) has been 37.18. If you look at it from a percentage view though, this drive lower has actually pulled the market down deeper than the first selloff. If we subtract 37.18 from 50.61 we can see that this leg has declined 13.43 points, but divide that into 37.18 and the market dropped 26.53% from peak to trough.
When levels like this are reached it makes sense to look for reasons to buy, but right now the only trends which justify any purchases for most stocks is the one minute timeframe. This bounce should be viewed as just that, a bounce in a downtrend. Time will tell us what the actual lows will be but risks remain high and my opinion is that daytrading is the best way to compensate for those risks.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SOJ9GXN6vFI/AAAAAAAACBY/0_5fR_c56dY/s400/Qretrace.png
Posted by Brian at 9/30/2008 03:17:00 PM
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Interesting Divergence
Just because gold rallies, it does not mean the mining stocks will advance. The chart below shows the relationship between the Spyder Gold Trust (GLD) and S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME). The darker shaded candles represent the XME which is close to unchanged since it first started trading in June of 2006, while Gold is up over 60% in the same time. Which one is wrong? Neither! Markets don't always do what they are "supposed to do" and fighting a trend based on a relationship which is supposed to exist is a good way to lose a lot of money. Only price pays! If you trade GLD, trade it based on the chart of GLD. If you trade XME, trade it based on the chart of the XME. Let the media and academics debate why markets do what they do, our job is to manage risk.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SOIlwulDO8I/AAAAAAAACBI/KLbnlJsdEzQ/s400/gldxme.png
Here are the components of the XME.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SOIly9l8PPI/AAAAAAAACBQ/Vbg9D8JvAtg/s400/xme.png
Posted by Brian at 9/30/2008 09:11:00 AM
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Interesting Times
May you live in interesting times.
~Chinese proverb and curse
Posted by Brian at 9/30/2008 05:48:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Monday, September 29, 2008Financial Panic Techincal Analysis 9/29/08
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SOE3Va7akII/AAAAAAAACBA/e5Wr0G1se0s/s400/092908close.png
Mybloop is still having problems with their uploader so no high res video today.
I hope you saw THIS POST earlier today
Posted by Brian at 9/29/2008 04:15:00 PM
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Daytrade in an IRA?
To me, it seems like the lowest risk way to handle risk in a bear market. I just posted a live video trade to the bonus tab on the BOOK WEBSITE Remember, the username and password are on pg 184, use lower case to login.
Posted by Brian at 9/29/2008 01:16:00 PM
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Collapse?
Sure feels like it. Be very careful!
The Nasdaq 100 looks like it is headed towards the 50% retracement (near 37) level from the 2002 lows.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SODg1ckJ_kI/AAAAAAAACA4/SC5G-yI0Now/s400/50percent.png
Posted by Brian at 9/29/2008 09:54:00 AM
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Persistence
Success seems to be largely a matter of hanging on after others have let go.
~William Feather
Except in the markets where you have to cut losses quickly!
Posted by Brian at 9/29/2008 06:28:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Sunday, September 28, 2008Subprime Primer
I am not sure who created this. I received it as a powerpoint and recorded it as a video. If you are easily offended by language do not watch it.
I am back from vacation and will begin posting regularly on Monday.
.
Posted by Brian at 9/28/2008 08:20:00 PM
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T-Bill Yield Soars
After bottoming at 0.01% yesterday, the yield on the 13 week T-Bills is now up to 0.91%
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNOho-AK0YI/AAAAAAAACAg/aqLj3SkR6hI/s400/TBills.png
Posted by Brian at 9/19/2008 07:57:00 AM
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When The Casino Opens
in 90 minutes, the short sellers will get annihilated.
Short sales in 799 Financial companies is now BANNED!! I wonder what happens to SKF?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNOVCTkFMSI/AAAAAAAACAY/jfD0WHln66A/s400/friopen.png
Posted by Brian at 9/19/2008 07:57:00 AM
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Controversy
When a thing ceases to be a subject of controversy, it ceases to be a subject of interest.
~William Hazlitt
Posted by Brian at 9/19/2008 06:24:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Thursday, September 18, 200832 Dollars In A Minute
I was short shares of Baidu.com (BIDU) earlier in the day and cashed in for a profit way too early (or so it seemed) as the stock continued another 10 points lower. I was focused on other stocks later in the day while the market rallied, but I just noticed the move in BIDU, it rallied $32 in the final minute of trading! It also finished the day more than $50 higher than my repurchase of the short. Gotta be quick in this market.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNLAfhD0vOI/AAAAAAAACAQ/NH-H-rtiGOc/s400/bidu.png
Posted by Brian at 9/18/2008 04:55:00 PM
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Stock Market Video Analysis9/18/08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNK3DXgONCI/AAAAAAAAB_4/m8Z-7b4Xqq0/s400/091808close.png
Here is the HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNK48dGXrqI/AAAAAAAACAI/107ckcq9hqw/s400/videocover2.PNG
Posted by Brian at 9/18/2008 03:52:00 PM
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Bounce
Posted by Brian at 9/18/2008 03:52:00 PM
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VIX is High
As many emailers have pointed out VIX is high, but it has been higher. VIX is not a reason to buy.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNFD-Wzw3dI/AAAAAAAAB_o/0jAXt_kMXyg/s400/vix.png
Posted by Brian at 9/17/2008 01:51:00 PM
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Trading vs. Investing
Buy & Hold Investor Dick Fuld, CEO of Lehman Brothers
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNEuYvcLeDI/AAAAAAAAB_g/p1wQclP1nr4/s400/dickfuld.jpg
Trader John Thain, CEO Merrill Lynch
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNEuWBvXNzI/AAAAAAAAB_Y/L1egPHf_-iE/s400/john+thain.jpg
Posted by Brian at 9/17/2008 12:20:00 PM
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Trading Limits
just in case...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNEhbz2MQhI/AAAAAAAAB_Q/n3YfumfRuSY/s400/tradelimits.png
This info was taken from the CME GUIDE
.
Posted by Brian at 9/17/2008 11:22:00 AM
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Rough Open
Yesterday's glimmer of hope for the bulls will be erased on the open today as the market will open nearly 2% lower. We remain in a very high risk daytrading environment.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNECBnQ2ngI/AAAAAAAAB_A/wMu55RoPwAU/s400/spyopen.png
Posted by Brian at 9/17/2008 09:11:00 AM
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Tuesday, September 16, 2008McCain Contract up 25%
since THIS POST about breaking past the cup and handle. I would lock in partial profits if long and raise the stop on the balance to protect profits. Regardless of what market you trade, it is all about RISK MANAGEMENT! Emotions have no place in the business of speculation.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNBLFtU9lAI/AAAAAAAAB-w/e8YsWDCdDOU/s400/mccain091608.png
while the support near 56 was clearly broken on the Obama contract, I hope you locked your gains in with a stop at the suggested level.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNBLIaGFSkI/AAAAAAAAB-4/5L0LvwGbt7Q/s400/obama091608.png
Posted by Brian at 9/16/2008 08:09:00 PM
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Labels: election, politics
Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 9/16/08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNAT6k-Ld6I/AAAAAAAAB-o/g7ZxopJqitw/s400/091608close.png
Here is the HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Posted by Brian at 9/16/2008 04:15:00 PM
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Up to the Declining
5 DMA. Risks remain high.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SNAH2MEv0fI/AAAAAAAAB-g/-U92HNmHc3s/s400/5dma.png
Posted by Brian at 9/16/2008 03:23:00 PM
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Fed Catalyst?
Can the Fed provide the catalyst to push the market higher and squeeze shorts? It is a low probability trade with a declining 5 DMA, but one we need to be aware of. Either way, there will be large volatility. Risks remain high!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SM_ecAvTxtI/AAAAAAAAB-Q/80r8YWTqFg0/s400/bernrabbit.PNG
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SM_lebSW9yI/AAAAAAAAB-Y/ko-ARV4HjQU/s400/catalyst.png
Posted by Brian at 9/16/2008 12:25:00 PM
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Flush?
Risks are still high but a move which holds above the broken support at 42.20 could be the catalyst for a larger recovery rally.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SM_NK6ipOEI/AAAAAAAAB-I/OKgCMThEcww/s400/shake.png
Posted by Brian at 9/16/2008 11:00:00 AM
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Debt
Debts and lies are generally mixed together.
~ Francois Rabelais
Here's what happened last WEEKEND AT THE FED
Posted by Brian at 9/16/2008 06:40:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Monday, September 15, 2008Stock Market Video Review 9/15/08
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SM7DGQYvndI/AAAAAAAAB-A/9lQa-h8qr9w/s400/091508Close.png
Here is the HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Posted by Brian at 9/15/2008 04:18:00 PM
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Manage Risk
During times of extreme uncertainty (now) you have to look beyond the headlines and and trust only in price, that is where the only truth lies, PRICE. Do you think your opinion of the news really matters? Not even the largest institutions with the most MBAs can seem to get it right. Price is the only thing that pays and price tends to move in the direction of the primary trend. Bear markets are tough because our natural optimism knows that things will become better, that they have to be better and one day they will. Let the institutions position themselves for where the markets will be in six months and further out. The job of a trader in this (and every) environment remains risk management. If you can manage risk well you will find yourself on the opposite side of all the pain in these markets.
Posted by Brian at 9/15/2008 03:01:00 PM
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Monday, September 15, 2008Still Struggling
Larger trends remain lower, guilty til proven innocent.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SM6ckNpAnbI/AAAAAAAAB94/HErS3_Iuosw/s400/struggle.png
Posted by Brian at 9/15/2008 01:32:00 PM
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Not As Bad As
a lot of people expected. The market held above last week's low (for now) and has been supported at the daily VWAP (for now) Risks remain very high.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SM6AX4UyBaI/AAAAAAAAB9w/9AtPHehk-nw/s400/vwap.png
Posted by Brian at 9/15/2008 11:33:00 AM
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Ideas
Getting an idea should be like sitting down on a pin: it should make you jump up and do something.
~E.L.Simpson
Posted by Brian at 9/15/2008 06:15:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Sunday, September 14, 2008No Bounce
in the futures.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SM3OVSm_qmI/AAAAAAAAB9o/FCDNTcnbxBI/s400/spnq.png
Posted by Brian at 9/14/2008 10:54:00 PM
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DOWN 3%
That's how much the S&P 500 futures contract is down right now, the Nasdaq 100 contract is down (just) 2.55% at the moment. It will be a rough open tomorrow...
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Posted by Brian at 9/14/2008 06:06:00 PM
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Friday, September 12, 2008Effort
The men who try to do something and fail are infinitely better than those who try to do nothing and succeed.
~Lloyd Jones
Posted by Brian at 9/12/2008 06:03:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Thursday, September 11, 2008Trading On News
No closing video today, I am out of town. Here is an excerpt from MY BOOK
You may be wondering what a chapter on news is doing in a book about technical analysis. A technical purist would take a closed-minded approach, indicating that “fundamentals don’t matter because the chart tells all.” Just as many fundamentally oriented managers express their perceived disdain for technical analysis (“Reading charts is like reading tea leaves.”).
The practical truth is that participants place their trades based on analysis of both fundamentals and technicals, and to completely ignore either is foolish. Don’t start thinking that I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth here – 95 percent of this book is dedicated to technical analysis, and the other five percent to this chapter. All of my timing decisions are based on price, not news or fundamentals.
Human nature is to ask questions. People want to know the “why” of those things they don’t understand right away. The markets are no different. All of us try to assign order to chaos, and crowd behavior in reaction to news frequently is very chaotic. We often do this instead of focusing on why a stock has already moved.
Personally, I want to know why people buy stocks in much more general terms. More importantly, though, I want to anticipate what their next move might be, when it may occur, how much risk to take and how much can I make if my analysis is correct.
In the market, the answer to why isn’t always easy to understand. Fortunately for traders, it doesn’t always matter. Interpreting news and committing capital based on our views of those events is very one- dimensional, just as monitoring the actions of just one participant is one-dimensional. But correctly interpreting human nature and crowd behavior is really what understanding technical analysis is all about. What causes one participant to buy or sell has very little significance beyond a couple of days.
It has been shown over and over again that no one is bigger than the markets -- remember Long Term Capital Management, Amaranth Partners, Bear Stearns and some of the other large “smart money” participants who went down in flames? If a very large participant attempts to move a stock – or even the market -- it can be accomplished for short periods of time, but it is very risky because it puts that institution in a large and likely difficult-to-liquidate position if the market moves against them quickly. Without proper risk controls in place, even the largest market participants can be forced out of business. Incidentally, many of the stocks you will trade successfully with a short-term timeframe are the recipient of a participant attempting to move prices in a particular direction.
Fundamentals Do Make Market Participants React
Fundamentals do matter because they are often the catalyst that causes a large group of participants to take buy or sell actions. There are many technical traders who buy breakouts or sell a stock short as it breaks below support. On a larger scale, there are more participants who buy and sell stocks based on their perceptions of a company or its products.
News releases are the biggest catalysts for participants to reevaluate their thinking about a company and make position adjustments based on expectations and ideas of value gained from the new information. News triggers emotion, and that emotion triggers actions that can be measured on price charts.
In college we are taught to evaluate a company based on its fundamentals, while technical study is given almost no attention. I learned a great deal in business school, but very little of it has helped me to become a good trader. What has helped me attain trading success with fundamental information is an understanding of when it makes sense to pay attention to these catalysts as it gives me insight into the psychology of the fundamental crowd.
I do believe that “the market knows all” and also that “news and surprises tend to follow the direction of the primary trend.” One of the principles of technical analysis is that the market discounts the past and anticipates the future. Whether it is anticipating where the economy will be in six to twelve months or the lifecycle of a business product, the smart money attempts to position its holdings to take advantage of emotional responders to the news when it is released. Financial analysis is big business, and institutions pay millions of dollars per year to access information based on in-depth analysis of what the future may hold for the economy, a market sector or an individual stock – and for good reason. It is the goal of an institution to accumulate shares before the “good news” is known to the majority of participants so they can be in a position to sell shares as price and volume expand.
When positive news is released, it is usually the public who buys from professionals. When negative news is released the coin flips, and professionals are often the buyers from the emotional public. The smart money buys temporary setbacks in a bull market and sells their long positions on short-term rallies in a bear market. It is common for strong markets to ignore negative news (“climb a wall of worry”), while weak markets react quickly and severely. Bear markets tend to ignore positive news and slide down a “slope of hope” or react with limited enthusiasm.
Today’s near-instant dissemination of information can be an undisciplined trader’s worst nightmare. Inexperienced and uneducated market participants -- the “dumb money” -- are more likely to be motivated by news headlines, chat room gossip, etc., and the market dutifully punishes their lack of thoughtful preparation with losses. Simply put, professionals anticipate while amateurs react.
more to come....
Posted by Brian at 9/11/2008 04:17:00 PM
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The Lehman Low?
bad news rarely comes out at tops. For now the weakness in the markets is being bought, manage risk! The pattern of lower highs and lowers on the 30 minute timeframe remains uninterrupted and the 5 day moving average is still heading lower. Any long side trades should continue to be very short term oriented.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMkvShQkz6I/AAAAAAAAB9Y/M9xvp3ySnfc/s400/Lehlow.png
Posted by Brian at 9/11/2008 10:29:00 AM
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I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.
~Wayne Gretzky
Posted by Brian at 9/11/2008 06:47:00 AM
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Fibonacci In Nature
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMkt7XX1ekI/AAAAAAAAB9I/rf7e6-kYSfs/s400/hurricane15.jpg
I saw this picture on "THE CHAIRMAN'S" excellent site.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMkuAIHev5I/AAAAAAAAB9Q/Sts7XHYbRe8/s400/FIBONACCI+SPIRAL+drawing+GT+.jpg
Posted by Brian at 9/10/2008 01:59:00 PM
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Can It Go?
We saw a mid day shakeout below the now rising VWAP and the market is about to make a short term higher high. Risks are still high with a declining 5DMA, but further strength could be coming this afternoon. Risk management is job #1.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMgP6rLw8yI/AAAAAAAAB84/NaqMOQk6klE/s400/vwapshakeout.png
Posted by Brian at 9/10/2008 01:37:00 PM
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Compromise
A compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes that he has got the biggest piece.
~Ludwit Erhard, German Economist
Posted by Brian at 9/10/2008 06:35:00 AM
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Tuesday, September 09, 2008Stock Market Video Analysis 9/9/08
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMbaHBW8VJI/AAAAAAAAB8w/OFyzOgdyuck/s400/090908close.png
Here is the HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Posted by Brian at 9/09/2008 03:53:00 PM
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Trade Ideas Symbols
and charts from the live event have been posted to the bonus tab on the BOOK WEBSITE Remember, the username and password are on pg 184, use lower case to login.
Also, to answer a question about the calls... yes, I sold them all (at a profit) early on when the stop level was hit and the market did not recover.
Posted by Brian at 9/09/2008 12:38:00 PM
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Peeling Off A Few Call Options
now that the Qs have rallied just under a dollar from my purchase of the calls, I will sell a few of them to ensure that a loss will not be taken. Stop (mental) on the balance will be 43.48
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMaBG2XTJrI/AAAAAAAAB8g/KtCXywQ7uF4/s400/qcalls.png
Posted by Brian at 9/09/2008 09:38:00 AM
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Trade Ideas
live event today (Tuesday September 9) at NOON EASTERN, here is the LINK to attend. The event will not require a password and it will not be recorded. There will be a brief Q&A at the end of the session and we will will not go longer than 30 minutes. Hope you can make it!
Also, I have received quite a few comments about the quality of the audio on the end of day videos. I have purchased 2 different headsets in the last 3 months and would like to get it worked out. Complaining about the volume doesn't help anything, to paraphrase Margaret Thatcher "don't bring me problems, bring me solutions". If you have a very specific recommendation on how to make it better, please let me know, thanks.
Posted by Brian at 9/09/2008 08:13:00 AM
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Fate
A man's character is his fate.
~Heracleitus, Greek philosopher
Posted by Brian at 9/09/2008 06:27:00 AM
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Fibonacci In Nature
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMkt7XX1ekI/AAAAAAAAB9I/rf7e6-kYSfs/s400/hurricane15.jpg
I saw this picture on "THE CHAIRMAN'S" excellent site.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMkuAIHev5I/AAAAAAAAB9Q/Sts7XHYbRe8/s400/FIBONACCI+SPIRAL+drawing+GT+.jpg
Posted by Brian at 9/10/2008 01:59:00 PM
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Can It Go?
We saw a mid day shakeout below the now rising VWAP and the market is about to make a short term higher high. Risks are still high with a declining 5DMA, but further strength could be coming this afternoon. Risk management is job #1.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMgP6rLw8yI/AAAAAAAAB84/NaqMOQk6klE/s400/vwapshakeout.png
Posted by Brian at 9/10/2008 01:37:00 PM
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Posted by Brian at 9/09/2008 03:53:00 PM
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Peeling Off A Few Call Options
now that the Qs have rallied just under a dollar from my purchase of the calls, I will sell a few of them to ensure that a loss will not be taken. Stop (mental) on the balance will be 43.48
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMaBG2XTJrI/AAAAAAAAB8g/KtCXywQ7uF4/s400/qcalls.png
Posted by Brian at 9/09/2008 09:38:00 AM
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Why The Calls?
I received an email asking why I bought calls instead of QQQQ or QLD (double long Qs). The answer is risk management. The market is in a clear downtrend on just about every timeframe you look at, so the odds are not in my favor. If the market weakens further from here I know that my risk is absolutely defined by the premium I paid, not a penny more. My thinking is that if the Nasdaq can turn, there could be a rally that may last a couple of days but I am not comfortable with the risks of holding stocks overnight in this environment. I am comfortable with the calls, that is my personal preference. The key is risk management...always!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMV7nMKpGFI/AAAAAAAAB8Q/q-w6g-CcqDs/s400/calls.png
Posted by Brian at 9/08/2008 03:15:00 PM
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IF
the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) can recapture the daily VWAP at 43.40 (also approximate location of daily Pivot) then teh market may see some further upside. The market has gotten deeply oversold and now there is a divergence present between price on the 60 minute timeframe and the MACD. I am long a small amount of Sept 43 calls and will likely add to the position. But if the market drops back below 42.80 I'm gonna bail on the trade.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMVyZJeLWNI/AAAAAAAAB8I/elr5rT7Hucg/s400/afternoonturn.png
Posted by Brian at 9/08/2008 02:43:00 PM
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Patience
Good ideas are not adopted automatically. They must be driven into practice with courageous patience.
~Hyman Rickover
When the market gaps up like this it is best to wait patiently for a low risk opportunity to present itself. It is easy to become emotional and make costly errors, leave that for the amateurs.
Posted by Brian at 9/08/2008 06:25:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Friday, September 05, 2008Stock Market Video Analysis 9/5/08
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMGTvrpIrsI/AAAAAAAAB8A/4UxfZxLlqyA/s400/090508close.png
Here is the HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Download the new issue of FUTURES & OPTIONS MAGAZINE
.
Posted by Brian at 9/05/2008 03:21:00 PM
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McCain Breaks Cup & Handle
The McCain Presidency contract broke above the 20 & 50 day MA's in early August and has held the gains nicely. Since the beginning of August there has been a nice pattern of higher highs and higher lows. With a rising 50 DMA, this market remains "innocent til proven guilty". Notice the shakeout below 38 prior to his speech, from failed moves come fast moves? The contract is tracing out a bullish cup and handle which shows strong Republican momentum.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMF8-Yl3ooI/AAAAAAAAB74/Npw2RvDq6SE/s400/mccain.png
At the same time, the Obama contract is looking like stage three distribution. With this contract below the declining 50 DMA, I would be thinking of exit strategies if it breaks what appears to be key support near 56.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMF875F_jWI/AAAAAAAAB7w/RBC95rYY6ok/s400/obama.png
DISCLOSURE: NO POSITION
Thanks for pointing this out, Eric.
Posted by Brian at 9/05/2008 02:12:00 PM
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Labels: election, politics
Was That The Test?
of VWAP? HIgh risk environment continues, be careful.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMFeLKKIVPI/AAAAAAAAB7Q/KXVeopPNOyc/s400/test.png
Posted by Brian at 9/05/2008 12:24:00 PM
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VWAP
After a rough start, the markets are coming up to their declining daily VWAPs. The SMH led the market lower and it is holding above VWAP....for now. Risks remain high, if you are attempting to trade a bounce you are playing a very dangerous game, RISK MGT is job #1!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMFVMnF0_EI/AAAAAAAAB7I/ST2MaI1KGJs/s400/vwap.png
Posted by Brian at 9/05/2008 11:39:00 AM
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Where's The Risk Management?
Atticus shrugs off liquidation rumors. Giant hedge fund Atticus Capital, with $14B under management, denies rampant speculation it may have to sell its positions and close down. Its two main funds have lost 25% and 32% this year, and investors are jittery after this week's news that Ospraie Management is closing its largest fund after substantial losses. The rumors helped fuel Thursday's heavy market losses, as other hedge funds sold positions in stocks that Atticus may be forced to liquidate if it closes its fund, including Union Pacific (UNP), down 6%, and MasterCard (MA), down 5.9%. Founder Tim Barakett said "we've heard these rumors as well and they're not true... In fact we have a large net cash position and are looking for opportunities to invest capital."
From WALL STREET BREAKFAST
DEFENSE WINS THE GAME!!
Posted by Brian at 9/05/2008 08:52:00 AM
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SPY Bounce?
If it is going to get one, this seem like a spot for it to happen. The trend is clearly lower, if you buy it is VERY HIGH RISK. There is NO EVIDENCE of a bottoming process. This IS NOT a suggestion to buy, the markets are still vulnerable below the declining daily VWAPs.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMAc7HPFMHI/AAAAAAAAB64/yHM3ZqZdKf0/s400/SPY.png
Posted by Brian at 9/04/2008 01:36:00 PM
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Approaching Potential Q Support
THe Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) is trading just above the lower ascending trendline on the daily timeframe near 44.25. This level is also prior support from late July/ late August and the approximate level of daily S2 (see 10 minute chart inset). There is no sign that buyers are taking control yet, but this is a likely area where there is potential for buyers to show up. Tighten stops on shorts.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SL_4_7wJ_uI/AAAAAAAAB6w/oiUISNvxQOs/s400/potentialQsupport.png
Posted by Brian at 9/04/2008 11:04:00 AM
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The Mind
'T is the mind that makes the body rich.
~Shakespeare
A new direction for DR. BRETT I am sure this will be an excellent undertaking, as anything he does is top notch.
.
Posted by Brian at 9/04/2008 06:25:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Wednesday, September 03, 2008Technical Analysis Video Trend Review 9/3/08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SL7wBo2Bd_I/AAAAAAAAB6o/jPKPuk60w9s/s400/090308Close.png
Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Posted by Brian at 9/03/2008 04:11:00 PM
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Tale Of 2 Markets
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) broke key support at 46 yesterday and is seeing continued weakness as the Semiconductors (SMH- inset) lead tech shares lower today. The best potential support level for the Qs appears to be near 44.25. Short term the Qs seem extended to the downside and 46 is where resistance is likely to be found on any strength.
The SPY continues to show relative strength as it maintains its range of 126.50-130.50. Without the resiliance of the financial stocks (XLF-inset) the support at 126.50 would be in jeopardy of breaking.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SL7NhrGcFBI/AAAAAAAAB6g/bmr9NWOiWBc/s400/2markets.png
Posted by Brian at 9/03/2008 01:46:00 PM
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Perspective
We don't see things as they are: we see things as we are.
~Anais Nin
Posted by Brian at 9/03/2008 06:56:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Tuesday, September 02, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 9/2/08
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SL2e6vdLowI/AAAAAAAAB6Y/iW8xvkPyKVs/s400/090208close.png
Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today. If you are having difficulties viewing this version search "codec" on this blog to find a possible solution. I am not an expert at viewing solutions, I just record and upload, what happens after that is out of my control.
Here is a possible solution for AAPL users, I have not verified if it works or not.
FYI, if any Mac users are having problems viewing your high resolution videos, I found the program "VLC Media Player" does an excellent job on the downloaded file. It's "donation ware". I'm not affiliated in any way. The url is below.
http://www.videolan.org/
LIVE trading idea event tomorrow (Wednesday September 3) at 12:30 PM EASTERN here is the LINK to attend. The event will not require a password and it will not be recorded. There will be a brief Q&A at the end of the session and we will will not go longer than 30 minutes. Hope you can make it!
Posted by Brian at 9/02/2008 03:11:00 PM
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SPY Bounce?
If it is going to get one, this seem like a spot for it to happen. The trend is clearly lower, if you buy it is VERY HIGH RISK. There is NO EVIDENCE of a bottoming process. This IS NOT a suggestion to buy, the markets are still vulnerable below the declining daily VWAPs.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SMAc7HPFMHI/AAAAAAAAB64/yHM3ZqZdKf0/s400/SPY.png
Posted by Brian at 9/04/2008 01:36:00 PM
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Approaching Potential Q Support
THe Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) is trading just above the lower ascending trendline on the daily timeframe near 44.25. This level is also prior support from late July/ late August and the approximate level of daily S2 (see 10 minute chart inset). There is no sign that buyers are taking control yet, but this is a likely area where there is potential for buyers to show up. Tighten stops on shorts.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SL_4_7wJ_uI/AAAAAAAAB6w/oiUISNvxQOs/s400/potentialQsupport.png
Posted by Brian at 9/04/2008 11:04:00 AM
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The Mind
'T is the mind that makes the body rich.
~Shakespeare
A new direction for DR. BRETT I am sure this will be an excellent undertaking, as anything he does is top notch.
.
Posted by Brian at 9/04/2008 06:25:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Tale Of 2 Markets
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) broke key support at 46 yesterday and is seeing continued weakness as the Semiconductors (SMH- inset) lead tech shares lower today. The best potential support level for the Qs appears to be near 44.25. Short term the Qs seem extended to the downside and 46 is where resistance is likely to be found on any strength.
The SPY continues to show relative strength as it maintains its range of 126.50-130.50. Without the resiliance of the financial stocks (XLF-inset) the support at 126.50 would be in jeopardy of breaking.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SL7NhrGcFBI/AAAAAAAAB6g/bmr9NWOiWBc/s400/2markets.png
Posted by Brian at 9/03/2008 01:46:00 PM
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Bear Trap?
It is too early to call it one, but if the market can recover back up towards 46.40+ it will allow the bulls to rest a little easier over the 3 day weekend. Solars continue to be where the good upside action is, there are a lot of good setups in that group.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLgs4_tIpSI/AAAAAAAAB6E/smOr3-WlDMs/s400/q10.JPG
Posted by Brian at 8/29/2008 01:06:00 PM
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Another Test of 46.10
The more times tested....
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLgN6x0TuBI/AAAAAAAAB50/b7L_mMiRIjg/s400/4610again.png
Posted by Brian at 8/29/2008 10:51:00 AM
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Solar Is Where The Action Is
The market is pulling back again and the Qs broke the higher low at 46.60 which means be extra cautious. I am focused on solar stocks, YGE is pulling back right now. See the video about how I am playing it and why.
YGE Setup and Trade from brian shannon on Vimeo.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLgLY6HTW9I/AAAAAAAAB5s/cDSXnuwGpoc/s400/YGEday.png
http://ino.directtrack.com/42/3096/98/
Posted by Brian at 8/29/2008 10:18:00 AM
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Genius
Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration.
~Thomas Edison
Posted by Brian at 8/29/2008 06:11:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Thursday, August 28, 2008Email Policy
I have been very clear about my email policy in the past, but not everyone listens. So to be clear.
I answer all emails (generally within 48 hours) if you can follow a few simple rules.
1- Please be BRIEF... seriously I do not read beyond the first 2-3 sentences. If you send a long email there is a good chance I will not respond. If you cannot frame your thoughts in 2-3 sentences include a phone number and I will call you (US only) when it is convenient for me.
2- Do not expect proper grammar, punctuation!, spilling, etc. from my emails. It is just email, not a work of literature. Also do not expect long, in depth answers to most questions, most of them have likely been covered in MY BOOK
3- I DO NOT give any specific stock advice, ever. If you ask for specific stock advice you probably will not get a response.
4- I do not respond to emails during the first or last hour of the trading day or during busy market times.
5- Do not send attachments. I will not open them, risks are too high with viruses.
6- I do not do "link exchanges" if you have a blog you think is good you can send me a request to look at and if I like it I will pass it on to my readers.
7- If you have a business proposal include a phone number I can reach you at because I would rather have a phone conversation than read a long email about the details.
8- If I have not responded to your email after 48 hours, email me again and include a phone number because it is possible my response got caught in your spam filter. If you still do not receive a response it is likely that your email got caught in my spam folder (and I never check it). So try sending it again from another email service.
I do not mind questions, but I am just one person, this blog is free and I cannot allow questions to get in the way of trading, cool?
If you send me a long winded email, an attachment, link request, etc. I will send you an email that asks if you read THIS?
.
Posted by Brian at 8/28/2008 04:25:00 PM
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Looking Better
The markets are looking much better as the SPY downtrend line has been broken and we now have a short term pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The Qs are still battling with the DT line but with the rising 5 day MAs in these markets, we should now give the short term benefit of doubt to the buyers. Volume will continue to diminish as we approach the long weekend so be sure to lock in gains before they are taken from you if the market comes back in.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLbRcPcBS1I/AAAAAAAAB5c/mUCgkvB8C2k/s400/spyq.png
Posted by Brian at 8/28/2008 12:25:00 PM
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Masterpiece
When love and skill work together expect a masterpiece.
~John Ruskin
Posted by Brian at 8/28/2008 06:07:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Wednesday, August 27, 2008Stock Market Review 8/27/08
No video today. Risks remain high, defense wins the game.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLWzDjd3DLI/AAAAAAAAB5U/YMMeI3iiJho/s400/082708close.png
http://ino.directtrack.com/42/3096/205/
Posted by Brian at 8/27/2008 04:51:00 PM
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Successful Test?
The Qs have found support at the prior resistance level (which had added significance due to it being the location of the 50 DMA) and the market is back above the 5DMA. This action is encouraging for the bulls and now holding above the 5DMA will be important for continued optimism.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLWRuqCjDKI/AAAAAAAAB5M/TixUHYyZACU/s400/Qtest.png
Posted by Brian at 8/27/2008 01:40:00 PM
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Children
I love children. They do not prattle of yesterday; their interests are all of today and the tomorrows.
~Richard Mansfield
Posted by Brian at 8/27/2008 06:05:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Tuesday, August 26, 2008Live Trading Ideas Review
tomorrow (Wednesday August 27) at NOON EASTERN here is the LINK to attend. The event will not require a password and it will not be recorded. There will be a brief Q&A at the end of the session and we will will not go longer than 30 minutes. Hope you can make it!
Posted by Brian at 8/26/2008 11:21:00 PM
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Stock Market Video Review 8/26/08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLRmOyTSe0I/AAAAAAAAB5E/OziA5hxQSD0/s400/082608close.png
Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Posted by Brian at 8/26/2008 03:56:00 PM
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Looking Better
The markets are looking much better as the SPY downtrend line has been broken and we now have a short term pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The Qs are still battling with the DT line but with the rising 5 day MAs in these markets, we should now give the short term benefit of doubt to the buyers. Volume will continue to diminish as we approach the long weekend so be sure to lock in gains before they are taken from you if the market comes back in.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLbRcPcBS1I/AAAAAAAAB5c/mUCgkvB8C2k/s400/spyq.png
Posted by Brian at 8/28/2008 12:25:00 PM
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Successful Test?
The Qs have found support at the prior resistance level (which had added significance due to it being the location of the 50 DMA) and the market is back above the 5DMA. This action is encouraging for the bulls and now holding above the 5DMA will be important for continued optimism.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLWRuqCjDKI/AAAAAAAAB5M/TixUHYyZACU/s400/Qtest.png
Posted by Brian at 8/27/2008 01:40:00 PM
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Tuesday, August 26, 2008Prior Resistance
becomes POTENTIAL support and the Qs are now approaching the 46.10 level which has been important over the last seven weeks. It is hard to imagine a catastrophic failure at this level, but the market loves to do the unexpected. The trend is lower, control risk.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLRMh4S3KiI/AAAAAAAAB48/m39NKzBTlvc/s400/Qtues.png
Posted by Brian at 8/26/2008 02:33:00 PM
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Fractal Properties In This Stock
A fractal is generally "a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be subdivided in parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole," a property called self-similarity. The term was coined by Benoît Mandelbrot in 1975 and was derived from the Latin fractus meaning "broken" or "fractured".....From Wikipedia
Notice how the handle of the cup and handle pattern on the daily timeframe shows its own cup and handle when viewed on a shorter timeframe (inset). Breaking past resistance could lead to a nice trade higher in shares of CELL. RISK MGT is job #1
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLQR_CIjdEI/AAAAAAAAB40/8Owo-qlAnCc/s400/CELLfractal.png
Posted by Brian at 8/26/2008 10:18:00 AM
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Reading
Reading is to the mind what exercise is to the body. As by one, health is preserved, strengthened and invigorated; by the other, virtue (which is health of the mind) is kept alive, cherished and confirmed.
~Addison
Posted by Brian at 8/26/2008 06:03:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Monday, August 25, 2008Stock Market Video Review 8/25/08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLMT-NUm5HI/AAAAAAAAB4s/PYCJ1Mvr_Fw/s400/082508close.png
The uploader at mybloop is down so there is no hi res version available today.
Posted by Brian at 8/25/2008 04:15:00 PM
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Test 46.10?
Buyers have not shown up today and the market is struggling to hold above the lows from last week. Failure to hold 46.40 should put a test of prior resistance into play.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLLzpheWJ5I/AAAAAAAAB4k/wluEuhwONTY/s400/test46.png
Posted by Brian at 8/25/2008 02:02:00 PM
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The Nasdaq 100
is pulling back as hoped for, and it is above the daily VWAP, but there is no compelling reason to get long with the market below the declining 5DMA. Further stabilization and then upside momentum will be necessary for the market to be bought. Tighten your stops in the solars, many of them are starting to come in aggressively.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLLDRtcuvUI/AAAAAAAAB4c/zszopsfuGb8/s400/qMON+morn.png
Posted by Brian at 8/25/2008 10:35:00 AM
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Hard Work
The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of work.
~Sarah A. Bolton
Posted by Brian at 8/25/2008 06:01:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Sunday, August 24, 2008Stock Trade Ideas for the Week
Here's what we'll do. Monday at 12:30 PM Eastern I will conduct a live event with individual stock ideas which appear poised for trend continuation. Here is the LINK to attend. The event will not be recorded and there will be no password required. It should last about 30 minutes and there will be very little time for questions.
Posted by Brian at 8/24/2008 10:47:00 PM
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Friday, August 22, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 8/22/08
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SK8eysVW_7I/AAAAAAAAB4U/G8NFk2coDrE/s400/082208Close.png
Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Hi Brian,
I need to attribute my recent success in trading to you and your book. Because of your book, I've been able to enter more consistent and high probable trades. Although the book is on the expansive side of books I've purchased, it is by far the most mind opening and effective book I've read. It is concise and to the point. I wouldn't mind paying more for it, since as the result of reading it I can easily make it back with one trade.
You are a role model to me. Please keep up with the good work.
Thanks again,
Leon
Posted by Brian at 8/22/2008 04:17:00 PM
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Tuesday, August 26, 2008Prior Resistance
becomes POTENTIAL support and the Qs are now approaching the 46.10 level which has been important over the last seven weeks. It is hard to imagine a catastrophic failure at this level, but the market loves to do the unexpected. The trend is lower, control risk.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLRMh4S3KiI/AAAAAAAAB48/m39NKzBTlvc/s400/Qtues.png
Posted by Brian at 8/26/2008 02:33:00 PM
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Fractal Properties In This Stock
A fractal is generally "a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be subdivided in parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole," a property called self-similarity. The term was coined by Benoît Mandelbrot in 1975 and was derived from the Latin fractus meaning "broken" or "fractured".....From Wikipedia
Notice how the handle of the cup and handle pattern on the daily timeframe shows its own cup and handle when viewed on a shorter timeframe (inset). Breaking past resistance could lead to a nice trade higher in shares of CELL. RISK MGT is job #1
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLQR_CIjdEI/AAAAAAAAB40/8Owo-qlAnCc/s400/CELLfractal.png
Posted by Brian at 8/26/2008 10:18:00 AM
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Test 46.10?
Buyers have not shown up today and the market is struggling to hold above the lows from last week. Failure to hold 46.40 should put a test of prior resistance into play.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLLzpheWJ5I/AAAAAAAAB4k/wluEuhwONTY/s400/test46.png
Posted by Brian at 8/25/2008 02:02:00 PM
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The Nasdaq 100
is pulling back as hoped for, and it is above the daily VWAP, but there is no compelling reason to get long with the market below the declining 5DMA. Further stabilization and then upside momentum will be necessary for the market to be bought. Tighten your stops in the solars, many of them are starting to come in aggressively.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SLLDRtcuvUI/AAAAAAAAB4c/zszopsfuGb8/s400/qMON+morn.png
Posted by Brian at 8/25/2008 10:35:00 AM
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Friday, August 22, 2008Bullish Financials?
I received an email which asked me if my prior post indicated that I turned bullish on the financials. One day's bullish action does not change the ugly mess on the daily chart below. With declining 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages I am definitely not bullish. In my prior post I was only suggesting the possibility of short term pressure on shorts. The best case for financial stocks is that they have become more neutral, but a break of 20.30 could lead to another test of 19.75 and then lower. This market remains "guilty until proven innocent" and it is going to take time to heal.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SK7Vt_ftmuI/AAAAAAAAB4M/LygHIWfKamY/s400/xlfday.png
Posted by Brian at 8/22/2008 11:05:00 AM
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Financial Stocks
gapped higher at the open and overcame the recent resistance at 20.30. These stocks have shown a short term pattern of higher highs and higher lows today (see inset). With the inability of the market to break down below the important support at 19.75 it now seems as though the shorts may see more pressure. 20.30 should now become support, failure to do so would put this move in jeopardy.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SK7Mr0D70-I/AAAAAAAAB4E/J6s0PrmqzcI/s400/XLFfriday.png
Posted by Brian at 8/22/2008 10:23:00 AM
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Deceit
Nothing is so easy as to deceive one's self; for what we wish, we readily believe.
~Demosthenes, Greek Orator
Posted by Brian at 8/22/2008 06:23:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Thursday, August 21, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 8/21/08
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Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
I was impressed with the report they send you when you sign up for a "free instant analysis" of a chart symbol.
http://ino.directtrack.com/42/3096/98/
Posted by Brian at 8/21/2008 03:46:00 PM
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Broken Support
The Qs and IWM have broken support, what holds up the SPY? Probably the XLF, which if it breaks below 19.60 could drag the SPY lower.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SK2A48cdquI/AAAAAAAAB3k/ejwzf8j5gR0/s400/SPYth.png
Posted by Brian at 8/21/2008 10:46:00 AM
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Discovery
Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody else has thought.
~Albert von Nagyrapolt Szent-Gyorgyi discoverer of asorbic acid (Vitamin C)
Posted by Brian at 8/21/2008 05:21:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Wednesday, August 20, 2008Multiple Timeframe Video Trend Analysis 8/20/08
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Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
There is a good mix of trading content at THIS BLOG
Posted by Brian at 8/20/2008 03:37:00 PM
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Choppy Trading
The intermediate term trend remains lower and prior support near 128 has proven to be a level of resistance this morning. The SPY is back below the daily vwap (5 min chart inset of today's action) and as long as the market remains below 128 extreme caution should be used for any long side trades.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKxJ-Q40DcI/AAAAAAAAB3M/LK3PE27dVcg/s400/SPYwed.png
Posted by Brian at 8/20/2008 12:39:00 PM
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Results happen naturally when motivation is pure.
~Unknown
Posted by Brian at 8/20/2008 06:15:00 AM
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Qs Struggling at Important Level
Is it a bear trap or will it continue lower?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKrZTQOGpAI/AAAAAAAAB20/JJFVup_q7ak/s400/q10tues.png
Posted by Brian at 8/19/2008 10:31:00 AM
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History
History never looks like history when you are living through it. It always looks confusing and messy, and it always feels uncomfortable.
~John W. Gardner
Posted by Brian at 8/19/2008 06:15:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Monday, August 18, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 8/18/08
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Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Posted by Brian at 8/18/2008 04:16:00 PM
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Dow Approaching Support?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKmm5rA1nmI/AAAAAAAAB2k/3isVv1C-24A/s400/dow30.png
Posted by Brian at 8/18/2008 12:44:00 PM
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Intelligence is quickness in seeing things as they are.
~George Santayana
Posted by Brian at 8/18/2008 06:00:00 AM
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Sunday, August 17, 2008Stocks To Buy or Sell This Week
Below are the stocks which were discussed in the live event Sunday evening. The charts with the red boxes around them are POTENTIAL short sale candidates, the others are POTENTIAL long candidates. If you missed the live analysis, remember that these are just ideas to consider for trend continuation in the week ahead. We remain in a trading environment and risks remain high for all stocks, risk management is job #1. ALWAYS!!
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Posted by Brian at 8/17/2008 09:36:00 PM
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Friday, August 15, 2008Live Trade Ideas Seminar
this Sunday at 6PM Eastern.
This session will be open to anyone (no secret hidden passwords from my book) We will start at 6PM and will end at 7PM at the latest. This event will not be recorded. Here is the LINK to attend.
There will be no end of day video today, click the banner below and register to see some great educational videos from ino.com.
http://ino.directtrack.com/42/3096/205/
Posted by Brian at 8/15/2008 04:05:00 PM
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US Dollar Index
The chart of the US dollar shows a strong rally over the last five weeks which is approaching the downtrend line from late 2005. There is also the potential for resistance just above from the Sept 07 Support which turned to resistance in Dec 07. A pullback from these levels would be healthy as the dollar would then build a higher low from where it could build for a push past the trendline.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKXVi0HGw6I/AAAAAAAAB2M/VYeU9-NZr7k/s400/USDOLLAR.png
Posted by Brian at 8/15/2008 03:13:00 PM
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Qs Struggling at Important Level
Is it a bear trap or will it continue lower?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKrZTQOGpAI/AAAAAAAAB20/JJFVup_q7ak/s400/q10tues.png
Posted by Brian at 8/19/2008 10:31:00 AM
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History
History never looks like history when you are living through it. It always looks confusing and messy, and it always feels uncomfortable.
~John W. Gardner
Posted by Brian at 8/19/2008 06:15:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Dow Approaching Support?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKmm5rA1nmI/AAAAAAAAB2k/3isVv1C-24A/s400/dow30.png
Posted by Brian at 8/18/2008 12:44:00 PM
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Sunday, August 17, 2008Stocks To Buy or Sell This Week
Below are the stocks which were discussed in the live event Sunday evening. The charts with the red boxes around them are POTENTIAL short sale candidates, the others are POTENTIAL long candidates. If you missed the live analysis, remember that these are just ideas to consider for trend continuation in the week ahead. We remain in a trading environment and risks remain high for all stocks, risk management is job #1. ALWAYS!!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKjSOQTFJnI/AAAAAAAAB2c/e4dz-VkawOM/s400/watch1.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKjSLi8hMYI/AAAAAAAAB2U/HzurIV9wXWM/s400/watch2.png
Posted by Brian at 8/17/2008 09:36:00 PM
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US Dollar Index
The chart of the US dollar shows a strong rally over the last five weeks which is approaching the downtrend line from late 2005. There is also the potential for resistance just above from the Sept 07 Support which turned to resistance in Dec 07. A pullback from these levels would be healthy as the dollar would then build a higher low from where it could build for a push past the trendline.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SKXVi0HGw6I/AAAAAAAAB2M/VYeU9-NZr7k/s400/USDOLLAR.png
Posted by Brian at 8/15/2008 03:13:00 PM
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Stock Ideas for Trend Continuation
I am either in these stocks or am watching them very closely for further upside this afternoon.
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Posted by Brian at 8/14/2008 12:45:00 PM
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Successful people make a habit of doing things that unsuccessful people don't like to do.
~Bob Bowman, coach for Michael Phelps
Posted by Brian at 8/14/2008 06:16:00 AM
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008Video Analysis of Stock Trends 8/13/08
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Hi Brian,
I really appreciate the extras that you are providing to those who bought your book. I must admit that I thought $80 was rather expensive but after reading the BOOK and having then having access to the bonus material that you provide, it has been well worth the $80. The bonus information and walk through the selection of various stocks is alone worth $80, so even if you wanted to use the book as something to prop up the short leg on the coffee table it is still well worth the price paid.
Cheers,
Brian R. Mc
Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
If you are having problems with the video here is a possible fix.
The file is encoded with the TechSmith Screen Capture Codec, so unless you have that codec installed the file will not play properly. Windows Media Player *normally* will search out and download the required codec if you are connected to the internet. This feature does not always work properly however. You can manually install the codec from this location: http://www.techsmith.com/download/codecs.asp
Posted by Brian at 8/13/2008 04:18:00 PM
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You Should Bookmark
the new blog from MICHAEL SHOPSHIRE about the mental side of trading. Michael is a real pro in this area and he writes great columns.
Posted by Brian at 8/13/2008 02:21:00 PM
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Support Found at 5 DMA
for the QQQQ and now it will be important for the market to hold above daily VWAP (inset)
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Posted by Brian at 8/13/2008 01:39:00 PM
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The Americans? We're going to smash them. That's what we came here for.
~Alain Bernard, cocky Frenchman whose 4x100 Free relay lost to the United States
Posted by Brian at 8/13/2008 05:46:00 AM
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Tuesday, August 12, 2008Stock Market Video 8/12/08
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I uploaded a recording of a trade from today to the BONUS TAB of the book site. Remember to use lower case to login with the username and password from pg 184 of the book.
Here is a HIGH RESOLUTION VIDEO DOWNLOAD for today.
Posted by Brian at 8/12/2008 03:14:00 PM
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BLOG
Posted by Brian at 8/11/2008 03:34:00 PM
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Digging Into Short Interest Numbers
From October 15 to July 15, the average price (based on volume or VWAP) shares of PALM traded at was approximately 6.94. Looking at the large short position (over 40 million shares as of July 15) and the fact that the stock is now above 7.20, it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that the stock was a good short squeeze candidate. A closer examination of the short interest data (table below) reveals a different story.
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The table below shows the growing short interest in shares of PALM. Here is how to interpret the data. As of Oct 31, the total short position in PALM was 25.6 million shares, that was up 4.9 million shares from October 15. The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) between 10/15 and 10/31 was $12.82, that means we can approximate that close to 5 million shares were shorted at an average price of 12.82, of course we do not know the true price the shorts got involved, but the VWAP gives us a good approximation. For period two, the shorts added another 9.3 million shares at an average price of 8.84.
When we average the two periods (9.3x8.84) + (4.9x12.82)/ 14.2 we find the average price the stock traded while 14.2 million shares were added was 9.79. If you add the 20.7 million shares which were short before the large breakdown in October, you can quickly see that of the 40.8 million share short position, only about 5 million shares (or about 12% of the position may be in a losing position. Without digging past some of the numbers it would be easy to confuse this stock with one where the short sellers may be squeezed. The point here is that, on balance, the short sellers are well positioned in this stock and that makes it less likely that a squeeze rally would develop.
The stock looks interesting from the long side right now, but what do the shorts know about PALM? Short sellers can be very patient and they are often right.
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You can learn more about short squeezes and VWAP in my book.
Posted by Brian at 8/11/2008 12:53:00 PM
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Labels: short interest
The Trend Remains Strong
and only price pays, but be aware that there is the POTENTIAL for the Qs to encounter resistance at the 61.8% retracement level. It is not a reason to sell short, only a level where the action should be observed more closely for evidence of increased supply which may halt the advance.
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Posted by Brian at 8/11/2008 11:13:00 AM
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The greatest human freedom is the freedom to choose one's attitude.
~Viktor Frankel
Do you have an OVERTRADING problem?
Posted by Brian at 8/11/2008 06:31:00 AM
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Sunday, August 10, 2008Stock Trade Ideas for Week of 8/11/08
These are the stocks discussed in yesterday's live event. Do your own research and remember that risk management is job #1. These are just potential trading ideas, not recommendations.
Free autographs from the FAMOUS Howard.
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http://ino.directtrack.com/42/3096/205/
Posted by Brian at 8/10/2008 09:38:00 AM
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Friday, August 08, 2008Stock Market Video 8/8/08 Review
Here is the LINK for the live stock analysis of trading ideas for next week. Tune in at 6PM Eastern on Saturday August 9. The password is the first word on page 50. This event will not be recorded.
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There are very few books written with a clear purpose and very few live upto the promised title. Brian Shannon kept the promise by delivering a great book Technical Analysis - Using Multiple Time Frames
Time is one of the most ignored topic for many technical analysts as the Price is more evident and interested piece of information to act on. Brian's ability to convey how to weave and focus multiple time-frames into trading is an excellent presentation.
This book also addresses some of the key topics for traders like 'How and When to Buy' and 'How and When to Sell'. I thought Brian's chapters addressing of how markets react at various stages from Accumulation to Decline was brilliant.
I am quite impressed with his work on this book along with his daily videos. It would be a great honor to recommend "Technical Analysis - Using Multiple Time Frames" for both novice and expert traders.
Suri Duddella author SURI DUDELLA author, Trade Chart Patterns Like the Pros
You can find a high resolution download of the video HERE
Posted by Brian at 8/08/2008 03:43:00 PM
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Successful Test
of prior resistance acting as support in the Qs. 46.00 remains critical.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SJxdul6nShI/AAAAAAAAB0c/K3rg1LFX0wI/s400/Supphold.png
Posted by Brian at 8/08/2008 10:52:00 AM
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When I race my mind is full of doubts - who will finish second, who will finish third?
~ Noureddine Morceli, Algerian athlete, 1996 Summer Olympic Games
Posted by Brian at 8/08/2008 07:42:00 AM
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