4/30/2008If every day was like this:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBjYPRVc_UI/AAAAAAAAAEs/p0esiDprK4c/s320/4+30+08+KLAC+trade-773442.gif
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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBjYQBVc_WI/AAAAAAAAAE8/rAUJG2es9Oo/s320/4+30+08+STP+jays+trade-776094.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBjYQRVc_XI/AAAAAAAAAFE/PURe4VMsF_4/s320/4+30+08+CL+trade-776848.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBjYQRVc_YI/AAAAAAAAAFM/hHKjpfowFig/s320/4+30+08+RAI+trade-777628.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBjYQhVc_ZI/AAAAAAAAAFU/zfgvBrnEi_E/s320/4+30+08+WFR+trade-778398.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBjYQxVc_aI/AAAAAAAAAFc/jN70vGKarxA/s320/4+30+08+VPRT+trade-779397.gif
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBjYRRVc_cI/AAAAAAAAAFs/F09rx5UzOsg/s320/4+30+08+NETL+trade-780950.gif
Posted by Chrisnyork at 4/30/2008 04:36:00 PM
1 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
5/05/2008Some newbie trading:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SB9qoBVc_iI/AAAAAAAAAGc/NWXO_oSZCaw/s320/5+5+08+CEG+2nd+trade-764618.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SB9qoRVc_jI/AAAAAAAAAGk/etoZbb6t6Rk/s320/5+5+08+ONXX+trade-765343.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SB9qohVc_kI/AAAAAAAAAGs/vNtH_bTzdag/s320/5+5+08+SYNA+trade-766059.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SB9qohVc_lI/AAAAAAAAAG0/LoO4SyWN7Jg/s320/5+5+08+CEG+1st+trade-766673.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SB9qoxVc_mI/AAAAAAAAAG8/n3OYYvqhI9k/s320/5+5+08+WFT+trade-767336.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SB9qpBVc_nI/AAAAAAAAAHE/rVqBMHP40cw/s320/5+5+08+TRN+trade-768175.gif
ONXX was a nice dumb trade, buying at end of the pop right at whole number resistance. Then CEG too scared to trade that correct tho it had the best risk reward. It closed near my farthest target.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/05/2008 04:14:00 PM
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5/01/2008A second day:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBp2zRVc_dI/AAAAAAAAAF0/ZNJabv3pmbk/s320/5+1+08+GMCR+trade-700692.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBp2zhVc_eI/AAAAAAAAAF8/8-QPFWd9MyA/s320/5+1+08+PSYS+trade-702191.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBp21RVc_fI/AAAAAAAAAGE/I79YTJAzHzk/s320/5+1+08+CEDC+trade-709004.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBp22BVc_gI/AAAAAAAAAGM/a_aa7Hy5xjU/s320/5+1+08+CNQR+2nd+trade-712650.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBp22RVc_hI/AAAAAAAAAGU/eKn18pHJT_Q/s320/5+1+08+CNQR+1st+trade-713392.gif
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/01/2008 10:04:00 PM
1 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Changing the blog:
I can't play the blog game. I don't read other blogs anymore, tho someone left a comment and I looked at some of their trades, that was cool, they looked nice, I liked their style.
Google ads didn't make me any money. I don't care how many hits a day I have. I no longer am interested in linking to you if you link to me. I don't care about my archive, there are no important posts.
So, I am going to strip this blog down, basically, I will use it as an excuse to get me to do my homework every day.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 4/30/2008 01:44:00 PM
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4/29/2008One of these days I will be back in the zone, maybe:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBfSsRVc_OI/AAAAAAAAAD8/pjn_UsGG9oM/s320/4+29+08+DNA+trade-717278.gif
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBfSthVc_RI/AAAAAAAAAEU/UIRU1BzgaG8/s320/4+29+08+ESRX+trade-721952.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBfStxVc_SI/AAAAAAAAAEc/HtGCYUfKfpo/s320/4+29+08+INFY+trade-722912.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBfSuBVc_TI/AAAAAAAAAEk/3vcjifvDIJ0/s320/4+29+08+ENR+trade-724438.gif
My favorite trade was ESRX because while it was a good old fashioned phoenix setup, there was something about it where I really thought I was taking part is shaking out some short stops, which has happened to me so many times, it was nice to be on the other side. I am noticing that there is a trade that can happen if you see a previous trade that you are not actually in. Then, if you see that this trade is about to have it's stops run, there is another trade. Where I exited DNA real fast was in fact someone elses long trade where DNA ran up through "short below 68" short trades stops. I thought there would be a second wave through to 69 but it took longer for that to happen than I thought. Another way of looking at that DNA where I shorted than bailed fast was, "this should be tanking but it's not, so anyone short and stubborn is gonna take a hit".
Posted by Chrisnyork at 4/29/2008 10:00:00 PM
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4/28/2008My trades today:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBZBghVc--I/AAAAAAAAAB8/f6lROH9mFl0/s320/4+28+08+WLL+trade-713898.gif
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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBZBihVc_AI/AAAAAAAAACM/rBBKTmJhQRI/s320/4+28+08+MON+trade-721846.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBZBihVc_BI/AAAAAAAAACU/uRc2EF8aOHI/s320/4+28+08+TNE+trade-722655.gif
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http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBZBlBVc_DI/AAAAAAAAACk/xy02ldiJcfI/s320/4+28+08+CG+trade-732694.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBZBlhVc_EI/AAAAAAAAACs/RgMoIoHKpmg/s320/4+28+08+ITRI+trade-734258.gif
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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBZBnhVc_MI/AAAAAAAAADs/8_pCju-eEu0/s320/4+28+08+SINA+trade-742537.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SBZBnxVc_NI/AAAAAAAAAD0/AIZHz1uE6PE/s320/4+28+08+CTCM+trade-743241.gif
Too many, too many losers, had two nice winners tho:
Posted by Chrisnyork at 4/28/2008 05:27:00 PM
2 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
4/03/20082 ways I see I can make more money daytrading:
The first is with leverage from a prop place, then my current trading account is used for a drawdown, instead of actually buying stocks, and I have no worry about $25,000 level that stops me from daytrading (yes I am rather undercapitalized).
One issue is I would then have to be doing my trade style with 5000 shares or more.
Another possibility is to find a stock style within what I currently look at, and come up with a style that has 30 setups a day. This way as long as I don't become retarded (always possible) I can have enough trades in a day to not have to be concerned so much with ending the day "green", which with only 3 or 6 trades a day, the odds can easily work against that. This would mentally be more acceptable to me day in and day out. One thing I see right away for 30 trades a day is fading all the incorrect breakouts that I wouldn't go long with, even for a .10 profit but on a .05 stop.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 4/03/2008 11:04:00 AM
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3/31/2008More sophisticated trades:
1. Fade false breakouts:
a) Define when likely a coming breakout will fail, how to do this?
b) Define when it is clear it IS a false breakout, maybe volume, time of day or pace within that breakout, or larger time frames not good.
c) See if there are any moves that happen after this point is defined such as a spike back up near highs, that can give an entry with great risk reward.
d) What kind of price area for target.
2. Trading within a base in a way that anticipates a breakout, but will lose as little money as possible if wrong (maybe lower accuracy but increase risk reward by a huge amount):
a) Using great daily chart criteria, see if there is a 15min base that might move.
b) Use some method to collect a position at one end of that 15min base.
c) Worst case can bail near breakeven or small loss, or, the move might happen without me being in it, but I will no longer be buying any spike up at all.
d) One idea would be in a 15min short pattern (i. e. a base apparent on the 15min chart that is now in the area of the 15min 20sma resistance) to short at a 5min stochastic pop or an expansion up into a Bollinger band, with some very tight stop above entry. Then you have an initial move back down into the previous range, which already would be profitable, and then if a move down further happens the risk reward should be another magnitude.
3. Absolutely deconstruct the most common ways my current tactics lose me money, and literally fade myself under some circumstances if I can define them well enough:
a) One experience based idea this illustrates is I have noticed this tendency for a certain kind of totally "false" new high on 3 letter NYSE stocks. When it does unfold in this false way, it is so similar to previous times in most aspects that I call it a "three letter lunch" from the time of day this happens. Perhaps come up with a set of these observed traps and tricks that would purely be based on all the screen time experience I have, with a common aspect being they used to cause me a "senseless" loss which I can define as getting stopped on some trade but you know about %90 likely you will see your breakeven entry price again. I would be attempting to fade newbie errors, a form of market making perhaps where I would be taking the opposite side of some out of ordinary move.
The reason I am thinking of this stuff is to see if I can apply some new tactics within the current structure I have. Like, I know how to program my scanner to come up with things I want to look at and filter the rest, I know how to have some timing on the day in terms of pace from morning, lunch and afternoon, I know about position sizing and a sense of my drawups and drawdowns.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 3/31/2008 04:32:00 PM
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3/24/2008Hiatus:
My father got really ill very fast, I just got back from spending the week near him at the hospital. I expect to be busy with this for a while to come. If I get something going again for this blog, I'll start posting. Check you all later.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 3/24/2008 05:13:00 PM
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11/22/2006Some ideal trades from timely scan results 11 22 06
Today I had some interesting scan results. The lists below are the nicest looking results for my style. I checked them at 11am and using the time column to see when it appeared, I can tell whether it was timely. I also put in things that at that time the alert appeared, would still appear to have a potential setup for me to trade, even if it then fell apart. These are important distinctions because hindsight is everything. I got a decent trade out of NDAQ from this today.
Scan 1
Long: DELL NDAQ MGM JDSU NYX AEM CENX NRG SHLD LXK PRT DD IAAC
Short: ATPG (avalanche) CWTR LIFC EAGL INTU WFC
Below I have idealized long trades of some timely scan results.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20mgm%20entry%20ALERTED%2010%2029%20AM.pnghttp://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20mgm%20trade.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20nyx%20entry%20ALERTED%2010%2032%20AM%20and%2010%2042%20AM.pnghttp://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20nyx%20trade.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20nrg%20entry%20ALERTED%2011%20AM.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20nrg%20trade.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20lxk%20entry%20ALERTED%2010%2015%20AM%20and%2010%2025%20AM.pnghttp://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20lxk%20trade.png
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/6647/3813/400/11%2022%2006%20iaac%20trade.png
Posted by Chrisnyork at 11/22/2006 06:00:00 PM
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8/26/20068 26 06
3 out of my 5 losses today were stops that took me out at the exact pivot before the stock reversed and ended up going in my favor. As usually happens, when I have had a winning streak and when I raise my risk (by a tiny amount even) I start being a little too agressive with my trading. I am curious to see if I can get back to trading well without losing too much money.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060826174534.png
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/26/2006 05:52:00 PM
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8/23/20068 17 06 to 8 23 06 Week Results
Blogger is not adequate for what I had to do, so please visit this link:
http://paleincomparison.com/blog/82306.html
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/23/2006 05:29:00 PM
0 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Well, it doesn’t get any more perfect than this trade of AMWD. It was a large gap down but the intraday setup is one I see working recently, ILMN (9.43a) and DIGE (9.43a) today were good examples. A gap down then a tiny base on the 1min that breaks down again around 9.35a or a few minutes later. When the market was in a decent uptrend months ago these were setting up to the upside a certain way.
AMWD Entry Image: http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/8%2023%2006%20amwd%20entry%203760.2.pngAMWD Trade:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060823163833.1.png
AMWD the main pro was the gap down kind of out of nowhere but dropping out of a 30min and daily base. Originally I was going to exit at 31.00 and then the rest at 30.50 but I have in my previous plan that when a trade moves perfectly and quickly in my favor it usually is going to exceed my expectations. So I took only half of what I had left of shares at 30.50 and then closed the rest at 30. I actually got filled .01 lower than the low of the day thanks to ARCA. I also used limit orders on this since the spread was at time .60 when it got hectic. I guess I broke some rules but this to me was very clearly a great trade. In the future, when I have done enough paper trading of this, I am going to add shares to something like this.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/23/2006 05:24:00 PM
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8 23 06 Missed and Passed the rest of images
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/23/2006 04:00:00 PM
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8 23 06 Missed and Passed
It is very boring today so I'm going to list some things:
Passed:
These I'm glad I didn't take; DIGE, NDAQ, PAAS, CBST, EAGL
These were maybe okay; WMT, UNT, CRDN, DVA
Missed:
Glad I missed these; DPTR, HANS
Woulda liked these; MMM, ILMN, ISRG (continuing from missed short yesterday lol)
Equal Moves (I make note of any nice equal moves whether I traded them or not:
WMT, AMWD, MMM
DVA
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060823153703.png
ISRG
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060823153848.png
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/23/2006 03:38:00 PM
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8 22 06
ATYT:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060822163531.0.png
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ATYT Entry Image:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/8%2022%2006%20atyt%20entry%203756.0.png
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ATYT was a nice gap out of a 30 min base. Sometimes this early in the am it is hard for me to tell if my stop is too wide or not. If you look at the entry image it seems that 21.15 was a tight stop, but on the chart at the end of the day 21.20 seems the correct stop. I also am uncomfortable having stops tighter than .20, but this stock trades like an ocean liner and a .10 stop would’ve been appropriate.
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BOOM:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060822163900.0.png
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BOOM Entry Image:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/8%2022%2006%20boom%20entry%203757.png
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BOOM was also a perfect gap out of 30min and daily consolidation. I’m not sure if recent market conditions are working for me or if I just have finally gotten better at watching larger time frames like Toni Hansen has been telling me to do for a year and a half. I wasn’t able to figure out what the equal move exits should’ve been but in hindsight I can see on the 30min that 33.50 would’ve been correct. I had exits at 33 whole number resistance and 34. As it was I was able to exit at the close in the 33.50 area anyway.
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PCLN:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060822164137.0.png
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PCLN Entry Image:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/8%2022%2006%20pcln%20entry%203758.png
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In hindsight I can say the daily was an ascending pennant and also rounding highs, over all this was extended. I got rinsed perfectly, and if I believed in conspiracy theories I would say someone at my broker traded against me. I was relieved this rolled over and died.
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GYMB:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060822164518.0.png
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GYMB Entry Image:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/8%2022%2006%20gymb%20entry%203759.png
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GYMB seems to me just like SEPR from the other day. Today ISRG was similar to these as well. These are intraday shorts of stocks that have moved back up to a daily SMA that was broken to the downside a month or so ago. This, along with the fact that my Hurst cycle shibboleth did not hit it’s downside target makes me think the recent action is just a bear market bounce but who cares. In the past I would never have held GYMB into the close but it seems other than taking all of this at 31 instead of holding for 30.50, holding the remaining shares into the close was not a bad idea.
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Despite the drawbacks of my do or die for stop or target trading, the benefits are really interesting: much less stress trying to micromanage open trades, a certain “resignation” that once I am in a trade most of my best decisions have already been made, and finally capturing more gains from the occasional larger winning trades. I am finding very few possible trades really have a shot at a larger intraday trend move. I am going to have to do some more studying to filter for only these best trades.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/22/2006 04:55:00 PM
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On the equal move list was GILD, and RIMM from yesterday I noticed hit the equal move I had in from then.
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Next month I am going to do some mentoring and try to tighten up my current plan.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060817163534.pnghttp://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060817165338.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060817163912.png
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/17/2006 05:03:00 PM
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Week Results
Here are my results for the last week, the first image is of my performance. I am trying very hard to have my average winning trade be larger and eventually closer to 2 to 1.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060817051443.png
This shows the comparison between my actual risk reward results, the maximum possible gain and some alternate exits. You can see my actual results and my correct current plan results were the same for probably the first time ever.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060817051533.png
By way of comparison here are a few previous months average results:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060817052449.png
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/17/2006 05:22:00 AM
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Hurst Signal
This interesting J. M. Hurst method using a 60 daily SMA has given a targetfor SPY of 137.20 in the next 3 to 6 months. The previous downside target has not yet been reached. In the past I have found that it is likely that downside target will in fact be reached, and I think this upside signal is wrong, but, we will see. It doesn't matter to me really but this helps me have a slight bias in looking for either short or long setups.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060817050133.png
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/17/2006 05:10:00 AM
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8/16/20068 16 06
Well I closed my first week doing threshold trigger orders either at my stop or my profit targets. I got lucky and the market rallied some so that helped this style. In choppy markets when trades don’t follow through I will get more stops. If I am exiting manually or tightening my stops, I can cut those losses but I can’t with this tactic. But it is a good experiment for emotionless trading since I can’t feel anything if I am not watching my open trades. I also find it easier to take a loss when I see I’ve stopped out more from a distance rather than watching it stop me after following every tick. <!----> <!---->
Today both RIMM and IDTI had fairly ideal 30min and daily bases, so I expected those to put in a trend day. I overtraded though when those didn’t go in my favor right away. Some decent trades I missed were ANF, VSEA, HOG, JCI and MON. ANF I really should’ve got in I just took it off my small charts that I use to keep an eye out on the best gappers when they are taking time to set up.
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Both CERN and INTU are very similar to a common error I make in breakouts; unfortunately I have many examples that look just like those two. DRIV the main con was it was extended on the 30min, for that reason perhaps I should’ve looked to exit some at 48.45. LBTYA my stop was too wide, but a tighter one would’ve been rinsed around 11.30a. EL was not an ideal setup but I like the daily. Intraday the main can was the already wide intraday move and the fact it had pulled up so far.
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/16/2006 04:42:00 PM
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8/15/20068 15 06
My hands off approach to trade management is working better than I thought. My emotions are reduced by not following trades tick by tick. I also am finding that I am staying in trades longer than I usually would have, and those are actually working out. But on things like SEIC and BMHC it sure would’ve been good to tighten my stops after they hit their first exit point. On the other hand, tightening stops has led me to trade micromanagement, which ends up in frustration and getting rinsed out of decent trades. I think after a couple of weeks of trading like this, I can try to be a bit more flexible, and practical. SEIC was the worst exit possible, and on BMHC the trade looked like it was not going to follow through well before I got stopped out on the shares I had left.
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/15/2006 05:05:00 PM
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8/14/20068 14 06
Today was a good day for my current exercise of not watching my trades once they are open. I followed my plan correctly on all my trades, and I had a decent winning trade, 2 small winners and 1 small loser. If I was micromanaging, I am pretty sure I would’ve experienced more frustration and maybe scratched at bad prices. If I can get this kind of relaxed trade management going, and not be dependant on cutting loses short, it will really help me when I trade with much larger size. http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060814170544.png
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/14/2006 05:12:00 PM
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8/12/20068 11 06
Today I didn’t even see decent setups I missed, though I did follow some nice trending stocks they wouldn’t have fit my requirements. One interesting thing today was holding these trades a very long time waiting for either the stop or the target to be hit. http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060812110250.png
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/12/2006 11:07:00 AM
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8/10/20068 10 06
I had a few days off, time for a little vacation even if it came my way sort of by accident. Every once in a while it seems I should do some trading that is do or die to my stop or my target. This means I put in threshold trigger orders at my profit targets or my stop. I then am going to stop watching the stock completely, maybe pulling it up after a few hours and tightening the stop if it has moved in my favor and given some nice pivots to put the stop past. I need to try to have larger risk reward on my winning trades. I am reducing my normal risk to half size, because in the past this has been good for an exercise but a bit costly with slippage and also from preventing myself from tightening stops. I need to get over watching every trade tick by tick. <!----> <!---->
IMCL:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/8%2010%2006%20imcl%20entry%203723.pnghttp://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060810162445.png
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This was an ideal 30min and daily base to be gapping down from. It might hit 26 in the next few days. My entry wasn’t perfect from the perspective of the 1min and 5min chart, but I did have a lot of confidence in that higher time frame working out. I also thought the market was going to possibly trend lower today. 28 was my First Resistance where I took half off. I closed half at 27.50 and stopped out trailing to above 28.10. My target was 26 but it seemed the %50 fib extension and .50 number support would hold this into the close. 27.50 was also the price where I had an additional 2 to 1 risk reward open. When I have 2 to 1 risk reward as open profit I can take half if not yet at the target.
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EXPD:
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This was kind of a similar intraday setup, one big difference though is the 30min and daily were already extended to the downside with a few consecutive days in a for. I wrote in my journal “will stop me?” and the answer turned out to be yes. I rarely am correct about that. I might have managed this in different ways, but those ways would not have gotten me as much out of IMCL, and that’s why I am doing this exercise for a while.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/10/2006 04:42:00 PM
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8/04/20068 4 06 Trade Images
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/04/2006 09:58:00 PM
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Rinse Bounce examples
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/04/2006 05:24:00 PM
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8/03/2006Last weeks performance
My "weeks" go from thursday to wednesday. Here is last weeks performance.
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/03/2006 05:00:00 PM
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8 3 06
Today was a difficult day in the market for me. Not a lot of stuff easy, so, maybe I should've avoided trading so much. I missed some decent things and pushed too much in the am. In the afternoon I saw better trades but didn't get in them. In the future I will pay attention to when all of a sudden I don't want to trade at all far a few days, it really seems to be a good barometer of my performance. I'm too exhausted to write much more so here are my trades in order. CENT I wasn't stopped out in the rinse, but then bailed. It of course then went to my target, which would've been RR of 3.29.
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/03/2006 04:20:00 PM
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8 2 06
I’ve noticed in the past that when I have a large losing day, it tends to flush out any excitement about making money. Then I am battle scarred. This am I was just going to sleep in. But I realized wanting to sleep in, and having a large loss day probably meant I would trade with caution and maybe do ok, which is what happened. <!----> <!---->
MDRX:
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Here is another example of the serious issue I have with getting more gain out of the occasional large winner. This had the potential of 7 to 1 risk reward, and with just a simple trailing 5min 20sma it would’ve been 6 to 1. But, those same exits on a lot of trades I take would be unacceptable. Anyway, I am going to, with a friend, try to come up with as many exit ideas as possible. MDRX was an ok gap, though the gap was out of a few days in a row upside move, which is risky for being more of an exhaustion gap rather then the start of a new trend move on the daily chart. It did have a nice 1 min base, and I hesitated to get in closer to 20.05 or so. You can see the volume was light in that 1 min base. This trade I was certain would go to at least 20.50, even though it wasn’t a perfect pattern. You can see that the gap equal move that I saw right at the open, 20.84 was small resistance at 10a.
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FFIV:
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I thought the 1min pattern was perhaps going to trigger a larger 30min breakdown. I was wrong in this case, but this kind of concept to the short side has been really great recently so I think it was worth a try. The first 1min equal move target of 44.24 held well and when I saw that I decided to take half off in case it reversed more strongly. At this point it seemed to me a difficult day for trading, there was a lot of choppiness. The only thing better to have done with my second exit was to wait until that base worked out then have stop above it, in case this reversed down from 44.50 resistance. One overall big con for FFIV was how there was the lower low into new lows of the day. If I got into FFIV at a similar looking base around 44.80, this would’ve been the kind of trade that performs best.
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It seems that perhaps I take a full loss on FFIV if I am trying to have things like MDRX work out much farther. What I would rather be able to do is have an objective way of judging trades as they unfold, so I don’t have to trade weak performing trades like FFIV like I do MDRX.
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CTSH:
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I took half risk on this because I am having recent difficulties trading, or, I am in a drawdown period. Also, CTSH the pace on the 1min was not perfect, I did like the 5min base with light volume at highs, but on the 1min it was choppy and some strong pace to the downside. I did think this had a good chance to get to 68.50, but because of the cons of the pace, when it stalled where it did I got right out. You can see there was a rinse bounce through to 68 support area, probably triggering stops, then it bounced right back to 68.30 area again.
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If you compare MDRX and FFIV, in both of these they moved slightly in my favor, then tested the entry area, then went higher. A difference though was that the pullback on MDRX right after I got in was slow and it didn’t even test 22. On CTSH the pace was rather equal move compared to the move into 68.20, and it rinsed 68 rather than finding support.
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CKFR:
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I thought that CKFR would follow through back to the downside, and that I was getting into an avalanche on a bearish stock thing I have been seeing. It’s a good thing I did half risk. You can see it hit the tiny equal move zone at 36.08 but I was too greedy. This wasn’t a great setup; it had already pulled up far around 11.30a. The pace had turned over to face the downside but I should’ve been happy just watching this instead of trading it.
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By the way, all the fibonacci lines I have drawn in I either draw in before I take the trade or immediately after. There is no back optimization on those, i.e. I don’t draw them in at the end of the day where they work best.
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Here are some exit stats on these trades, can see how massive MDRX was and how my alternate plans would’ve captured decent gains:
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/02/2006 04:53:00 PM
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8/01/20068 1 06
Today I traded badly. This is like a bunch of other days. I wasn’t willing to walk away with a medium sized loss, instead tried to make it back and ended up with double that loss I should’ve accepted. I also haven’t been wanting to trade all of a sudden after having 15 days with only 2 losing days. I think in the future I will respect that and take a day off. So I am going to do this laborious exercise I developed when ALL I did was lousy trades like today.
SPLS:
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TREND DEVELOPMENT:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had bad results:
Worst was bailing right at perfect short. Broke my plan and got rinsed. I could’ve waited all day while it made decent tries for 21.
Areas I followed my plan and had bad results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had good results:
WFMI:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060801173353.png
TREND DEVELOPMENT:
Uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend?
3 waves, two waves with base then continuation or nothing?
Pros:
This had a very nice daily, basically perfect though it was a few times larger then average daily range, and if it is only 1 or 2 times the average daily range, the gap is a bit safer.
Cons:
SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Price support and resistance (whole number, chart levels, equal move)?
Indicator support and resistance?
Pros:
I thought 50.50 then 50 would be good targets, but only 50.50 then it ran through my original stop.
Cons:
VOLUME
Greater on move and diminished on correction?
Euphoria and capitulation events?
Pros:
This was decent lighter volume pullback.
Cons:
PACE
Slower than average moves will often lead to continuations of the prior trend.
Stronger than average moves will tend to correct with slower ones.
Comparable moves near average will tend to lead to trading ranges.
Continuation bases tend to be 1 to 2x length of previous move.
Pros:
Cons:
I would have to say under pace, that because this had just made new lows it wasn’t the best of these kinds of trades. The best of these it will make a spike then fade back up just like this did before I entered, but, that spike down and move up WOULD NOT HAVE JUST TRIGGERED NEW LOWS of the day. This means less likely a lot of people are aware of this, that I am getting in before those new lows of the day trigger all kinds of alerts.
CORRRECTION PERIODS
Identify important correlations:
Pros:
This seemed to be drop off 1min 20sma pivot right at 9.45a.
Cons:
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Gain or Loss:
-.69
Pros:
Trend
SR
Volume
Correction Period
Cons:
Pace
Things I did correctly:
My stop was ok, the daily was decent.
Things I could have done better:
Held original stop, taken partial at 50.50 area then get stopped with stop above base at 10.15a.
Areas I followed my plan and had good results:
This did go to 50.50 and this sort of daily chart is usually very good.
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had bad results:
I bailed at the worst point.
Areas I followed my plan and had bad results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had good results:
CCRT:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060801173404.png
TREND DEVELOPMENT:
Uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend?
3 waves, two waves with base then continuation or nothing?
Pros:
Cons:
Here again can see the lower low created from the move down yesterday. So even though it seems to be an ok base, this was actually day 2 of daily move down.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Price support and resistance (whole number, chart levels, equal move)?
Indicator support and resistance?
Pros:
Cons:
I sold right at 32 support, either I should’ve gotten in earlier or later.
VOLUME
Greater on move and diminished on correction?
Euphoria and capitulation events?
Pros:
Lighter volume pullback.
Cons:
PACE
Slower than average moves will often lead to continuations of the prior trend.
Stronger than average moves will tend to correct with slower ones.
Comparable moves near average will tend to lead to trading ranges.
Continuation bases tend to be 1 to 2x length of previous move.
Pros:
Cons:
This really was choppy and kind of dangerous.
CORRRECTION PERIODS
Identify important correlations:
Pros:
Not sure.
Cons:
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Gain or Loss:
-.65
Pros:
Volume
Cons:
Trend
SR
Pace
Correction Period
Things I did correctly:
Nothing, shouldn’t have taken it but guess what, I bailed and then it went to my target to the cent.
Things I could have done better:
Areas I followed my plan and had good results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had bad results:
My original stop was never hit. This went to my targets. Would’ve been 2 to RR if I followed my original plan.
Areas I followed my plan and had bad results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had good results:
AFFX:
TREND DEVELOPMENT:
Uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend?
3 waves, two waves with base then continuation or nothing?
Pros:
This was a decent gap down, other than being over 2 times daily range.
Cons:
SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Price support and resistance (whole number, chart levels, equal move)?
Indicator support and resistance?
Pros:
Cons:
Sold right at 18 support.
VOLUME
Greater on move and diminished on correction?
Euphoria and capitulation events?
Pros:
Light volume base but in this case maybe indicated a con since it was also at 18 support.
Cons:
PACE
Slower than average moves will often lead to continuations of the prior trend.
Stronger than average moves will tend to correct with slower ones.
Comparable moves near average will tend to lead to trading ranges.
Continuation bases tend to be 1 to 2x length of previous move.
Pros:
Cons:
This was rounding lows. Downside pace was slowing down a bit. This was descending pennant.
CORRRECTION PERIODS
Identify important correlations:
Pros:
Cons:
This and the previous trade I entered right when number came out at 10a.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Gain or Loss:
-.93
Pros:
Trend
Volume
Cons:
SR
Pace
Correction Period
Things I did correctly:
Nothing.
Things I could have done better:
Used rinse bounce and waited for move back to entry area.
Areas I followed my plan and had good results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had bad results:
This wasn’t a correct setup.
Areas I followed my plan and had bad results:
My stop was what I think of as a sucker stop. Sort of obvious and after it is hit you have nothing but better prices available.
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had good results:
CKFR:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060801173434.png
TREND DEVELOPMENT:
Uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend?
3 waves, two waves with base then continuation or nothing?
Pros:
This 30min chart was actually very correct. It dropped out of an ascending pennant.
Cons:
SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Price support and resistance (whole number, chart levels, equal move)?
Indicator support and resistance?
Pros:
I thought 43.50 area was likely decent resistance and 43 decent target. I didn’t get all my shares filled at 43.02 maybe I should’ve used 43.05 but I was greedy.
Cons:
VOLUME
Greater on move and diminished on correction?
Euphoria and capitulation events?
Pros:
This was rather ideal looking 1 min base, though in hindsight this trades a bit choppy.
Cons:
PACE
Slower than average moves will often lead to continuations of the prior trend.
Stronger than average moves will tend to correct with slower ones.
Comparable moves near average will tend to lead to trading ranges.
Continuation bases tend to be 1 to 2x length of previous move.
Pros:
The only thing that made this not-ideal was the fact that there already was a large intraday move in the drop around 9.42a. I find this to be something to watch for a be careful as a lot of trades that seem to have nothing but pros will fill if there already was a wide intraday range move (especially compared to previous days).
Cons:
CORRRECTION PERIODS
Identify important correlations:
Pros:
Cons:
10.45a correction period was very close and I find I am better off not initiating new positions around that time.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Gain or Loss:
Pros:
Trend
SR
Volume
Pace
Cons:
Correction Period
Things I did correctly:
My stop was pretty tight, I should take trades like this even though this didn’t work out. I think this was a sign of what turned out to be a slow choppy day.
Things I could have done better:
Even though in this case this would’ve been bad, I usually am better off trying more do or die for my price targets. Even if that means trades like this would take me out.
Areas I followed my plan and had good results:
This was an ok trade and I should take ones like this again.
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had bad results:
Areas I followed my plan and had bad results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had good results:
I bailed at 43.14 near 11a instead of trailing the stop wider.
MAN:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060801173448.png
TREND DEVELOPMENT:
Uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend?
3 waves, two waves with base then continuation or nothing?
Pros:
I suppose this was ok.
Cons:
SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Price support and resistance (whole number, chart levels, equal move)?
Indicator support and resistance?
Pros:
I thought 55.50 looked possible.
Cons:
VOLUME
Greater on move and diminished on correction?
Euphoria and capitulation events?
Pros:
Neutral.
Cons:
PACE
Slower than average moves will often lead to continuations of the prior trend.
Stronger than average moves will tend to correct with slower ones.
Comparable moves near average will tend to lead to trading ranges.
Continuation bases tend to be 1 to 2x length of previous move.
Pros:
Cons:
This is the biggest reason for this, this was rounding lows kept doing lower lows instead of an ascending pennant. Can see this was not a nice 1 min tight base.
CORRRECTION PERIODS
Identify important correlations:
Pros:
Cons:
Reversed tight at 3.05p correction period.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Gain or Loss:
-1.04
Pros:
Trend
SR
Cons:
Pace
Correction Period
Things I did correctly:
Nothing.
Things I could have done better:
I shouldn’t have been trading this afternoon. I just couldn’t walk away from a loss day.
Areas I followed my plan and had good results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had bad results:
This was not 1min setup at all.
Areas I followed my plan and had bad results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had good results:
CBRL:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060801173502.png
TREND DEVELOPMENT:
Uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend?
3 waves, two waves with base then continuation or nothing?
Pros:
There was a daily and 30min base, but it looked really choppy and bad. This was just a hope trade not a real setup.
Cons:
SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Price support and resistance (whole number, chart levels, equal move)?
Indicator support and resistance?
Pros:
Cons:
Retarded trade.
VOLUME
Greater on move and diminished on correction?
Euphoria and capitulation events?
Pros:
Cons:
Retarded trade.
PACE
Slower than average moves will often lead to continuations of the prior trend.
Stronger than average moves will tend to correct with slower ones.
Comparable moves near average will tend to lead to trading ranges.
Continuation bases tend to be 1 to 2x length of previous move.
Pros:
Cons:
This was just plain wrong. Again more of a descending pennant. I guess I can just revert to plain old bad trading.
CORRRECTION PERIODS
Identify important correlations:
Pros:
Cons:
Again I sold right at 3.05p correction period. Should’ve done these lousy trades with half risk.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Gain or Loss:
-.2
Pros:
Trend
Cons:
SR
Volume
Pace
Correction Period
Things I did correctly:
Just got out when this looked really wrong.
Things I could have done better:
Areas I followed my plan and had good results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had bad results:
Areas I followed my plan and had bad results:
Areas I didn’t follow my plan and had good results:
I bailed on this luckily. I do find when I take a totally wrong trade, that is like other wrong trades I have taken plenty of in the past, that it’s ok to bail on these. Like today I was pushing in the afternoon because I was thinking of money not because I was finding great trades or was trading well. Then I got in this and right away looked like I had done this old kind of trade I used to do, where it seemed I magically sold the low or bought the high of the day. I know what those wrong trades look like.
PNRA:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060801173515.png
I’ll sum this up, can see again there was no 1min base. Choppy range. The 30min was decent for a base. The main con was my mental state, I was trading in the afternoon because I didn’t want to lose money, not because I was PNRA and it looked like some perfect trade that for sure was going to work out.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/01/2006 05:40:00 PM
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7/31/20067 31 06
Today I was exhausted and feeling a little ill. I was willing to sit here and do nothing but I did see some decent trades. It turns out I would’ve had 4 winners in a row and I also watched some others go nicely but I didn’t take them. I think if I had been aggressively trying to trade today I wouldn’t have seen what I did. So that was interesting. Some that I missed that would’ve been ok or worth taking even if they didn’t work out great were: CEPH, EXP, FMD, BA. Some others that I could’ve taken but decided it wasn’t worth it were: ITRI, MDR, BA, OSG, ANDE, FMD, MAN, ZUMZ. Some of these would’ve stopped me out. <!----> <!---->
SHPGY: This had a lot of pros, but the main con for me was being an ADR these in my experience are likely to stay in a range all day. As it was the setup was perfect so I couldn’t really pass it up. At the end of this post I will show how my correct plan and my alternate exits would’ve gotten much better profits than I managed. I give myself a pass though today.
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PTEN: I really had no clue this would run as far as it did, but in hindsight it seems the daily and 60min chart this gap up was a bit more meaningful than I noticed. This begs a profit taking strategy that doesn’t need to know how far something will go. As it was my correct plan would’ve at least not scratched this. I just had no guts today and doubted my judgment because of being so exhausted.
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CENX: I have seen this short pattern a lot recently. The larger time frames are bearish. There is a gap down, but it trends up strongly out of the open. It then finds resistance at 5min or 15min 20sma or some other point. It then puts in a range, and that range starts to look like an avalanche. So the avalanche kind of returns the stock to its previous bearish direction. This was a scalp only to 30 and would’ve been nice, but I was so feeble minded today I couldn’t even hold this with just a quarter my usual risk.
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VLO: This was another trade I thought had enough pros that I couldn’t pass it up, but I chickened out at 67.70 instead of holding it to 67.92. I also had a stop that was too wide.
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Basically today I didn’t want to risk anything since if I had any losses it would be because I probably shouldn’t have been trading. At the same time, I like this relaxed way I went about things.
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MY CORRECT CURRENT PLAN AND ALTERNATE EXIT STRATEGIES:
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/31/2006 07:48:00 PM
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7/28/20067 28 06
In my experience, when I have a drawup between 6 and 10 units with very few or no losses, I usually have some sort of reaction and start trading poorly. So starting yesterday I used half and ¼ risk on what I thought were possibly questionable trades. This served me well again today, where my two losses only took half of my 1 winner. I’m not sure if over time I will end up using this reduced risk for the wrong reason on decent setups, which is what has happened in the past. I do think I am better at judging possible setups and sort of, trading my own equity curve as a chart. <!----> <!---->
VLCM: This type of short setup has been working incredibly well this earnings season. So while I was in this I was fairly confident it would work out. Which is good because it became apparent this thing traded very wildly, with the spread at time about .40, unless my qoutes were wrong. You can see some of the wide trading. I was willing to accept I might get rinsed but I think I was just lucky. Anyway, this went to the target 20 and I got out. I actually exited at 20.17 because I didn’t know what was going on with the Level 2 it was so volatile. So when I saw 20.05 trading but no fill, I just got out. That was not too great. This is another trade that went further without me.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060728171053.png
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VLCM entry trigger: This is an almost perfect setup of what I call 9.35a break. The only con was the bar at 9.31a was lower than the one at 9.30a.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2028%2006%20vlcm%20entry%203689.png
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ANDE: I took half risk because a trusted friend suggested this wasn’t a good trade. But I wanted to follow my own judgement. In hindsight this wasn’t good at all, but I really couldn’t see that . This lack of jusgement is what happens when thoughts of money and whatnot cloud my “vision”.
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GENZ: Again I took half risk because my friend advised me this was no good. In hindsight I can see this was no good at all.
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Similar to yesterday, my losses only took away half what my one winner made. If I can flatline like this instead of going on a losing streak that would be good.
Here you can see on the right the column showing my equity list on a trade, then my risk reward result. At the beggining the results are mixed, I did half risk on some trades that would've been better with full. But the last 9 trades it was very good. Next week I will study how this has been panning out for the last months or so.
7/27/20067 27 06 Winning streak comes to an end
Well I just couldn’t believe this morning that I could keep having winning trades. So for whatever reason I think I hesitated or just fumbled SHOO, PENN and WOOF and these popped past my entry. WOOF would’ve stopped me out anyway in the early am. I seemed to be really in tune with pace today, I’ve been working with Toni Hansen online and discussing what I am looking at with her, it’s been helpful. Anyway, I started trading again before 2p and I really could notice that for whatever reason I was no longer objectively judging my trades but thinking of profit and loss and my winning streak, which always happens. So I did all the trades half and a quarter risk and my 5 trade losing streak this afternoon only took half the profit of my PMTI trade. If I could manage myself in this way when my performance gets interrupted by thoughts of money or whatever, it would mean I don’t give back so much money on my stretches of mediocre performance. I have observed this cycle for ages and I did think it was one important part of Bo Yoder’s book Mastering Futures Trading. <!----> <!---->
PMTI: This had a perfect daily and 30min setup. Intraday it had a sharp pullback so that was one con, but, I was just pretty certain it would at least work out to the previous lows. I could’ve had my stop tighter but I put it above the little spike into 39.77 area, when it could’ve been above 39.55 or so. 38.35 was an equal move target on the 1min, the equal move I have drawn in is for the 15min gap target. You can see the 5min 20sma as a trailing stop wouldn’t have worked as this reversed all the way to my stop. I suppose a trend channel would’ve worked based on the 5min bar chart. I really have no clue how I’m supposed to get more profit out of these trades, other than if it doesn’t stop me I know it is very likely to go to at least 2 to 1 RR units and if my average winner was 2 to 1 I would be doing much better than I am now.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060727164520.png
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PMTI entry image: You can see how the upside pace had rounded off into 40 whole number resistance at 9.37a. Then the downside pace was strong into 39.25 area at 9.43a. Then the upside pace was non-existent until 9.55a, and there even was a nice upside rinse to flush anyone with stops too tight. Something like this will actually feel like it will work for sure.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2027%2006%20pmti%20entry%203683.png
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WOOF: I’m going to try to evaluate these next 5 trades. WOOF is a very tricky dangerous stock; it’s one I am familiar with. The daily on this was nice. There was a decent 1min base and pace was ok. This is a good example of when it would be good to use a rinse bounce.
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WOOF entry image: The main con on this was if you look on the 15min there is no real base or no support, it looks like it has already had a wide intraday move. It also looks like it gave a better setup at 10.10a. So this had a few pros and cons, but really I knew my judgment was off and I probably was trading for the wrong reasons. For one thing, I am closing in on a new equity high, and I was mad at having missed seemingly a million nice setups this morning. But I knew this and did these losing trades with reduced risk.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2027%2006%20woof%20entry%203684.png
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SWFT: The main con with this which I didn’t notice at all when I took it was the 30min was already extended, this was not just coming out of a decent 30min 60min or daily base. Plus I knew I was just off this afternoon. You can see I tightened my stop to a sort of silly point. This never hit my original stop and returned to my entry price later. I thought this had a decent 1min base but without those larger time frame pros I really shouldn’t be trying to trade these sort of things.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060727165125.png
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PPG: I got sucker rinsed on this. I kept wanting to close this at the meager profit it had open at 2.20p. But then I decided after it pulled back I would tighten the stop above that pullback. It then rinsed me out to the penny and went to about .07 from my exit target 61.10. Basically this trade was just mediocre, but, with more finessed I could’ve closed it for a meager profit while giving it a better chance to go to my exit. In general doing this will get me a lot more profit. But I knew I was off, hence the half risk. You can see I exited right at 5min 20sma resistance, a type of erroneous exit I have been training myself to avoid. I should either wait for that to decisively break (I use a 5min 20sma band at %.25 to determine this a bit more objectively since it gets rinsed often) or I should anticipate a small reaction to it in my favor and use that to exit a lot closer to breakeven. This exit was very frustrating, and that frustration was a bad sign.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060727165645.png
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CMCSA: This was a trade where I gave myself a lot of reasons to take it, when my accuracy has been recently improved by using any reason to NOT take a trade. The main con I saw on this was on a stock that has traded over 2 million shares so far, and breakout like this I find to be too obvious and likely to be rinse. I find on thinner stocks that aren’t trading vehicles often, a more obvious setup can work. When this reversed against me I just got right out since as soon as it started moving down I could see this downside pace was a lot stronger than the upside pace leading into the setup. Another con is the sharp downside pace around 12.30p. The move up between 2p and 2.30p was more an equal paced move as that downside and so implied more of a range.http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060727170054.png
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HUM: The main con on this was the huge spike in the morning. This was a huge intraday move already, and to me this already flushed out any exits or new shorts were likely already in this. I thought the risk reward potential for this was decent if it followed through to 52, and I also thought the futures were going to follow through more to the downside. Anyway, it sure seems subjective when I write all this stuff about these trades.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/hum.png
Here is my winning streak from the last 5 days trading:
7/26/20067 25 06
Today was my favorite type of day. I only took two profitable trades and I was out of both by 11a. I suppose that sounds nice huh. I figured out a long time ago that this was how my best days are, but my worse days are like yesterday where I took 6 trades to lose money. I should be more active on days where things are going my way, and less active on days that seem useless. PTEN: I liked this gap up and I thought this had a chance at trending to 26 today. When it creeped slowly into 25.40, I took profits there instead of 25.45 because I just couldn’t take waiting any longer for that exit. So here is a case where I broke my trading rules and it seemed like the smart thing to do. When this happens it makes me think the markets are a lot more random then I want to admit. The funny thing is, this retraced all the way to a few cents from my stop but never hit it, then went to 25.45 later.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060725165638.2.png
PTEN Entry image: I will show the entry image because this seems like an ideal setup.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2025%2006%20pten%20entry%203676.2.png
NTRI: This trade I was fairly certain would trend lower through the day. This is also an example of how I have discovered that a winning trade that is at all NOT totally mediocre (i.e. risk reward less than 1) that it is very much likely to go well PAST 2 to 1. This information which I learned from tracking the maximum gain of every trade I’ve taken since January tells me that even though 57 might be a first resistance location, since that is not yet 2 to 1 and so far the trade is behaving perfectly, that it is very likely to go past 57. I made a mistake on this trade by calculating the stop based on the top of the base as of 9.40, but by the time this triggered the stop could’ve been .20 tighter. What’s interesting is how much more gain that extra .20 closer would’ve gotten me if I had held this all day. When I get my average winning trade closer to 2 to 1 I will attempt to address managing these occasional big winners properly.
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NTRI: Entry image, can see I had stop at 59.40 area when 59.20 was better. I make a lot of these position sizing mistakes that might be just .10 or .20 here and there, but at the end of the week it adds to my current inconsistency.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2025%2006%20ntri%20entry%203677.2.png
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Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/26/2006 09:36:00 PM
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7 26 06
My accuracy the last few days has been really high, and today I think I was pretty certain I would have some losing trades but I didn’t. Because I was afraid of breaking this losing streak I took some trades at half my normal risk, something that I thought I was doing this week for a good reason but in hindsight seems incorrect. I had just been discussing this concept of trying to pick and choose certain doubtful trades to use less than the normal position size on. He might’ve been right that it’s better to use same size. <!----> <!---->
I also really hope one day I will be ale to finally come up with a method to improve my profit taking. I’ve been collecting all kinds of info about how best to exit with my tactics. It seems at the end of all my efforts that eventually I will have to be able to judge overall market conditions and the individual trade to have a wider set of expectations about a trade. Right now I only expect a trade to either make me profit or stop me out. I also need to study how best to tell as a trade is progressing in my favor whether it has the characteristics of other large gainers. I think trailing stops, taking partials and a lot of other suggestions I have heard are very inadequate.
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CYMI: This trade was not a perfect tight base, and because of my string of winning trades, I took this half risk. Because I had half my normal shares, I was able to stay cool when it reversed and tested my stop to the penny, then went to the target. This trade seems similar to AMZN and I really can’t tell why this didn’t trend all day and AMZN did. Either at some point I am able to understand that or, I have to have an exit strategy that lets me get out of this around 34 yet stay in AMZN all day. One possibility is using the 5min 20sma with a safety zone for rinses such as a %.25 sma band, but, I have tested this and found it too inconsistent to use on every trade.
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CYMI entry image:
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2026%2006%20cymi%20entry%203678.png
AMZN: This trade illustrates one serious problem with my trading. If I was able to redo this trade and exit all at 26.50 I would have made 10 times the profit on this I actually did. I scratched half because I was nervous about my streak of wins and the fact that I had a very nice winning trade on CYMI but only used half risk. I didn’t want to have AMZN stop me out on a full size trade and be back to breakeven. Basically I mucked it up this am getting distracted by thoughts of money and winning streaks and taking my mind off the process. In general it is earning season in a bear market so shorts have been nice recently, so I can’t be that surprised I would have a string of wins. As it was I exited at 28.10 I couldn’t wait until 28.05. Right after I exited I realize that it stalling at 28.10 was a sign it was likely to drop clear through 28 which it did moments later. Interestingly enough CYMI and AMZN are examples of the 5min 20sma working well as a trailing stop. I find this happens a lot when the market is particularly friendly to my trading style. In choppy markets though it can be useless.
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AMZN entry image:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2026%2006%20amzn%20entry%203679.png
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AFL: I wasn’t that confident about this trade, so I again did ½ risk. I will stop that; I’m better off paper trading for a day if I’m getting this antsy about my winning streak. Anyway, this didn’t follow through to my target of 41.50, so it wasn’t the worse scratch. Another option would’ve been letting it base at 42 then getting out when it broke above that base at around 1p. This meant I gave this trade a chance to follow through to the downside but I still wouldn’t have lost money on it.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060726212609.png
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When my biggest problem in my current trading activity is I am leaving a lot of profits an the table, then it means my bad habits of overtrading, taking marginal setups and revenge trading are not causing difficulty.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/26/2006 09:31:00 PM
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7/24/20067 24 06
Today I actually wasn't supposed to trade but I forgot. I'll explain. I became aware of a pattern with my performance and I decided to make a plan about it. Basically, occasionally I'll have a string of winning trades, or a bunch of winning trades with very small losses, accumulating about 6 to 10 units of profit without any setbacks. This is different from a steady set of a winner or two, then a loss or two. This is a sort of explosion of earning. After such an equity upswing I often then have a string of losses. It seems I actually do much worse after a string of wins. So I decided to make a plan where after a sequence of winning trades like that I take the next day off. The following day I “paper trade” by just watching stocks and using alerts. Then the third day I use half risk, then the following day I go back to full risk. This way any euphoria from the winning streak has dissipated. I didn’t notice from my excel sheet that I had one of those streaks last week. Anyway, today I was too busy on a day that I really didn’t notice a lot of great stuff, so I was pushing on the wrong day which I do often as well.
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BIIB: This didn’t fit in my requirements, I think I was seeing things. The smartest thing about this trade was that I realized my error as soon as I got in and put a stop in right above that tiny base, which was a good thing.http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060724195915.png
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LNT: I thought this trade would work out, I thought the 5min and 1min looked ok, but in hindsight it seems this was just really thin. This kind of stock looks like better for overnight with a wide stop. I got rinsed at my exit, I pretty much knew it would rinse me and I could get a bounce exit but I didn’t trust my judgment. On this I wrote in my journal “will stop 35.29?” and “rinse tight stop?” both of which were a yes. This process in my journal helped me to figure out something I used in SHLD later.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060724200226.png
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PETS: This in fact was an ideal setup. There was a gap. The gap was above the daily 20sma. It also took this above the 30min pennant in the premarket. I thought this was likely to go to 11.50 and 12 today but that didn’t happen. I took a partial then trailed the stop hoping this would bounce from the 5min 20sma but it stopped me out. I was too chicken to get all the shares I was supposed to.
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OSG: I also thought this would work out. I wrote in my journal “rinse 61.70?” which means when it was trading I thought it would rinse my stop but still be a valid trade after or I could get a better exit after which was true. Most of the time when I think something is going to rinse I am incorrect. When I start to be correct a lot more I might change my plan. This gave a tiny 1min avalanche along the 1min 200sma but that was where my stop ended up being anyway so I couldn’t cut my loss short on this.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060724200536.png
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MRVL: This was a totally wrong reactionary trade, which I at least got right out of. It’s one thing to make a mistake and do a trade for a stupid reason, but, to then be stubborn and hang in there with the original stop just to avoid making another mistake is “dumber”. At this point I now what a correct trade is supposed to be, and I know the kind of trades I used to make that sometimes I make again, so I just get right out I don’t even think of this as scratching.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060724201029.0.png
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SHLD: This stock is tricky to trade, I think of it as evil. This means I often see it doing false breakouts and running right down and rinsing all the obvious stops. It seems to be the kind of game one has to play to trade this. SO I only try to mess with this when I think some larger time frame is going to kick in, on this case I like the 60min reversal and the 30min and 15min 20sma support. But, it was difficult to stay in this the way it whipped around.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060724202334.png
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Here I will explain about what I learned from my little questions in my trading journal that I out to use on SHLD. I have been writing comments like “will stop 25.35?” and then later in the day I go and see if the answer was yes or no. What I found that was very interesting was that I didn’t seem to be that accurate as far as my “yes” or “no” answers to that question. In fact I take wanting to scratch as a sign I should stick with the trade. After all, the worse that can happen is it will hit my stop, and maybe it will give me an earlier cheaper reversal setup exit. The interesting thing I noticed from this question was NO MATTER WHAT I always was better off WAITING a period of time for a much better price. In other words, it seemed that the price I noted at the time I decided to scratch could for sure be much improved on if I was patient. So whether or not I am correct with my answer, I now know I had better wait for the price to move in my favor and even give me a small profit before I actually scratch. In this case, I didn’t like the fact that SHLD reversed right after I got in. Then when the market did pop higher at 3.05 it did not bring SHLD with it nor did that pop send SHLD to at least the previous intraday highs resistance.
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The worst thing about today was not a bunch of mediocre trades, because my total loss would be covered by one decent trade. It’s that 6 trades will be about half that loss in commissions. Also my judgment was off today. I noticed that my losing trades were larger than my winning, when I recently have been consistently having winning trades well twice the size of my losses.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/24/2006 08:31:00 PM
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7/21/20067 21 06
Yesterday was an ideal day, and I always find it difficult to trade the day after that. Usually I am thinking about how I don't want to have a losing day. I found that setups I got in didn't follow through the way I would like, I also took some less than ideal ones.
ATYT: This did not have a correct base, but I was pretty sure it would work out. I should've waited for the better setup at 9.50, where there was a base and I could've had a tighter stop as well. I was too greedy to take 16.50, then panicked an the sharp pullback. I have learned that whenever I realize I better get out that the trade is not working as I hoped, that I am better then waiting for a better exit. In this case I took half off and kept original stop. I then figured this would bounce back to 16.50 area and when it did I closed the rest. The fact that the retracement at 10a was so sharp made me think this setup would not follow through to 17. But it's better not to panic, I notice one often gets a few chances at a price resistance.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060721165134.png
SEPR: This I would do the same again, I find that this setup is risky but it usually has great risk reward and shorts like this recently have been putting in nice trend days. In other words I would do this the same again.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060721165150.png
SEPR entry image: The main con with this was the 1 point bounce up right at the open, this means it already has put in a wide intraday move. The best breakdown would've been the base from 9.34a to 9.37a without the wide move at 9.30a.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2021%2006%20sepr%20entry%203667.png
QCOM: One reason QCOM did not follow through to 34 today was if you look on the 30min cart, it had a lower low yesterday, so it was a bit of a descending pennant instead of ascending. This means some selling was already going on. A better management would've been to wait in QCOM as it based around 34.20, this way I give it a chance to hit 34. Then when the breakdown failed at the 10.15a correction period, I could've tightened the stop to above the 1 min 20sma. I would've gotten a worse gain but usually I am better off giving something like this a chance to hit that 34 support. On the trades today I can see my nervousness by how my stops were a little wider and how I got in things a little late.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060721165205.png
HTCH: The main con on this was the 1min pace was already wide, plus the move up at 9.41a was a faster upside pace. I just thought with the large gap down and the market selling off, this had a chance of a trend day. 17.30 was the end of the third selling wave on the 1min and equal move from those waves. I took partial after I noticed that, since I didn't when first getting in the trade. I then tightened the stop to above that mini 1 min phoenix above 17.50. I thought if it broke 17.50 chances are it would put in a larger correction and I was not interested in holding through that. You can see there was a big spike through to 18.25 which would've rinsed me, so my tight stop was ok. This is an example of using a reversal patter to determine when to scracth a trade. Again, I knew this trade had some more cons then I'd like, so I wasn't too suprised it didn't work out.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060721165222.png
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/21/2006 05:12:00 PM
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7/20/20067 20 06 Classic bear market action
Well today my results were good. I did okay following my plan. The market put in a correction from daily SMA resistance, and is right out of Gary Kaltbaums book in what happens in a bear market.
CTXS: This and TCBI were both a setup I call 9.35a break, which I haven't traded much recently, but basically it s a break out of the first 5min range. This is one of those setups one might read about in books and try to do and have consistently fail. But used along with my larger time frame criteria it's pretty good. Noth TCB and CTXS were not picture perfect examples, but I thought they had a decent chance of providing nice Risk Reward if they worked. They both had similar daily and 30min charts so to me that was a big pro, while the main cons were that they had not put in nice flat basesw, but were already thrusting to the downside. CTXS had to put in a run to 31 before it could finally drop lower. I did not hold this to exactly 30.05 but got out 30.25.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060720164110.png
Here is the entry image of CTXS, which shows what I saw when I took this trade.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2020%2006%20ctxs%20entry%203663.png
TCBI: I had to use a wide stop because of where I got in, which was about .15 after it stated moving. I just thought this looked great otherwise. You can see it then put in a longer base, and I considered putting on more shares when that base broke at 9.44a but decided not to. I took all at 19.55 but my original plan was 19.30 which was 2 to 1 risk reward.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060720164121.png
Here is the entry image.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2020%2006%20tcbi%20entry%203664.png
N: I took this trade with half size risk since I thought the daily move was already on it's way and so was a con, plus the market did not look like it was for sure going to rally into the close and in fact it sold off. But, N was a textbook C setup which you can see exmplained more elsewhere. I also thought worst case I could probably get out around 71.10 instead of waiting for 71 to break, which at this time of day letting it retrace to 71 would've been pointless. I took some partials at 71.46 because at that point the market was selling off and 72 looked more doubtful, then I closed it at 71.45 on the way down.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060720164136.png
Here is the entry image.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/7%2020%2006%20n%20entry%203665.png
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/20/2006 04:46:00 PM
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7/19/2006At the close 7/18/06
I paper traded a set of stocks I thought would open higher with the market on 7/19/06 and put in a trend day, and maybe be ok for a few days swing:
MED, TXU, WOOF, LMIA, ODFL, NXL, FAL, PLD, EOP, AVB, BDN, EYE, AHR.
With the market bouncing, these that are breaking out of ranges have a nice chance. I thik this was the first time I saw a bounce like this coming, amybe next time I can do something about it.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/19/2006 05:09:00 PM
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7 19 06
Today I made much more difficult than it had to be. My scanner trade-ideas.com which I completely depend on was down, I think an important price server was down because I heard realtick was down too. Anyway, I was unable to see what were some nice gappers, on the one am in weeks with finally a bullish bias. As the morning unfolded I kept stumbling across some stocks that had trended through the morning that were coming out of very nice 30min or daily bases; ISSX, FORM, SMSC, N, ABFS, HGIC, ISRG, OMX, TXU, PLD, KR, CVX. I didn't have a chance to get in any of these. I guess I got thrown off my am routine and so I then managed to mess up the nice trades I did get in.
MED was a little bit like a revenge trade in that it really was well on it's way and didn't have a proper larger time frame base. It was also very thin and I didn't get the exit I wanted. After this pullback to the 15min 20sma that stopped me out, it closed higher.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060719163932.png
LLL was the first of 3 nice trades I got in this am, but, because my usual routine of scanning was interupted, I actually thought it was unlikely I could not do some bad trades. In other words, since I missed what scanning results I usually get, I assumed these trades were more revenge trades. But I was wrong. I also had to leave at 11.30a and I did not have enough confidence to put in threshold trigger orders with my broker, which gets me out either at my target or stop. Turns out on the next three trades that would've been very profitable. Oh well, my bad habits continue.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060719164211.png
ILMN I even wrote in my journal "Shouldn't have taken right?" and the answer turned out to be wrong, this really ended up a nice trending stock, and is actually a picture perfect example of what is the best case outcome of the setup I use. Obviously market conditions were ideal for this. Considering I kept wanting to bail on this from the moment I got in, I held it longer then usual. I wrote "scratch at 35.10?" instead of scratching, which I am trying to train myself to do. It was good I didn't scratch then or put the stop at breakeven. Still the mximum gain on this was over 5 to 1.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060719164508.png
YHOO I did with half risk because I was still convinced I was trading for the wrong reasons. I didn't have any confidence this am nor any sense of flow or whatever. But, I did choose some decent trades. I attempted to alleviate this condition by writing more in my journal, and trying to evaluate these trades based on technical objective reasons. But again I wasn't confident enough to use my broker orders.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060719164849.png
UNH was an attempt at a scalp if the market followed through with a rally into the close, and I bailed on this right away in a bit of a panic.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060719164938.png
DISH was another scalp, I really liked the way this had found support at the 15min 20sma. If the close wasn't fast approaching I might've held this longer, it actually traded at 33.46 after the close, and my exit would've been 33.45.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7013/233/400/20060719165149.png
Here is a comparison between my actual results, the maximum possible results, and my correct plan. If I can eliminate this set of obstacles with my trading I would be doing well.