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Toni Hansen[*]性别: 女[*]职业： Full Time Trader and Mentor[*]地点: Sarasota : FL : 美国兴趣[*]trading stocks and emini futures contracts[*]teaching market analysis喜爱的电影[*]Wimbledon[*]Babel[*]All About Eve[*]A&E's Pride & Prejudice[*]The Pursuit of Happiness[*]The Village喜爱的书[*]Atlas Shrugged[*]The Alchemist[*]The Fountainhead[*]Daughter of Fortune我的博客群组成员Toni Hansen's Online Trading Blog
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Daily Trade Activity
A brief description of my stock trading activity.
9/22/2008Some trades today:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNf-9QySbcI/AAAAAAAAAjc/b9W8o6l5RN8/s320/9+22+08+autotraded+UUP-759302.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNf-904cwsI/AAAAAAAAAjk/a5e8eU3bzbU/s320/9+22+08+autotraded+UL-762525.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNf--X9ntOI/AAAAAAAAAjs/M_F7F7hBK8A/s320/9+22+08+autotraded+SSRI-764576.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNf-_PfnhoI/AAAAAAAAAj0/uc3kL2A3kXo/s320/9+22+08+autotraded+NTAP-766975.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNf-_2XRRBI/AAAAAAAAAj8/kcUhFJLjzDE/s320/9+22+08+autotraded+LRCX-769290.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNf_AYXUr3I/AAAAAAAAAkE/XZlwWBUen5c/s320/9+22+08+autotraded+ABX-772826.gif
I am starting to see a disconnect between my back testing in NinjaTrader and my forward testing and current trading. For one thing, it seems if I use discretion as to what stocks to trade for the day, that this works well. Basically I have been doing this for years but the way I trade these stocks was not very good. So then I came up with this tactic, which is what these screen shots are from. The problem is there is no way to code these stocks criteria with NinjaTrader, especially since I am using Trade Ideas to find these stocks. Therefore I'm not positive how optimized this all is considering the recent market conditions. Today there was a huge move and I got on the right side of the right stocks, but I think that is the point of trading anyway. What I don't know is if on the sleepy days whether I will loose a lot more than I gained on a day like this.
I also noticed that I would be better off it seems just letting the system trade itself AFTER I have put the stocks in to be traded. I don't like taking multiple trades on one stock but that seems to be what I must do.
I guess I will just keep going down this path. I will be raising the quantity of shares I use slowly.
As far as how I actually traded today, I did not take the multiple trades in SSRI, I took the first larger winner. I also did not re-enter NTAP after the first trade got stopped out on the trailing stop. I only took half size on LRCX as well, I thought there was more risk of some bounce instead of that death selling into the close. If it seems this meddling doesn't actually save me losses then I might just go live autotrading with NinjaTrader as opposed to doing it in Sim mode while trading manually and while watching charts in QuoteTracker like usual.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/22/2008 04:24:00 PM
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Got an ATI video card:
Got an ATI Radeon 2600 Pro for about $60 which is working well, PCI express. Using an old ATI Radeon 7000 as my second card for a total of 4 monitors. For some reason the ATI Catalyst software wouldn't work anymore, so I got rid of it, luckily I don't need that for the drivers to do their thing. Maybe will get another of the same card but, I'm done farting around with this machine. My current main mistake remains getting Windows XP Pro 64 bit because of lack of driver and software support and compatibility. I do have 4 gigs of RAM and might get 8 just because I can with that OS.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/22/2008 03:13:00 PM
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9/19/2008Markets:
These are some out of the ordinary markets. I've been taking it easy the last few days. What I do is more mundane.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/19/2008 08:19:00 PM
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Interesting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIaOyCf.U_bU&refer=home
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/19/2008 10:51:00 AM
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9/18/2008Comparisons:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNLx8u8KSdI/AAAAAAAAAi8/PmPJ3nzhGjc/s320/9+18+08+autotraded+STO+comparison-748276.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNLx9OXx47I/AAAAAAAAAjE/_Tvl6Ge3AKw/s320/9+18+08+autotraded+WFMI+comparison-750904.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNLx9xL1qAI/AAAAAAAAAjM/fTXwKz1ykaE/s320/9+18+08+autotraded+SNDK+comparison-753567.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SNLx-QMb0DI/AAAAAAAAAjU/qjSD_D0ChRU/s320/9+18+08+autotraded+JOSB+comparison-755698.gif
Today there were four stocks on my radar for longs, since I was unable to short and didn't feel like calling my broker. I will give them a couple of days and see if I will now have to call for a locate before any short trade.
Anyway, here are some charts. The above window is my autotraded backtested results. The bottom 3 screen are the three versions I have of this strategy. It seems the middle one is winning for me, especially when I watch it in realtime and when I try to trade it live as well. It seems to be a good balance of not getting me into retracements too early, and not missing out on the big moves it should capture.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/18/2008 08:26:00 PM
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Shorting:
None of my usual suspects are available this am to short thanks to mama SEC. Hopefully this improves, tho this gives me one reason to hurry up and get with Bright.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/18/2008 11:31:00 AM
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9/17/2008This is great:
http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/17/2008 10:46:00 PM
0 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
9/15/2008Images from today:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SM7MnYxCMqI/AAAAAAAAAiM/rGwNc5hgsMY/s320/9+15+08+SD+trade-749420.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SM7MntDjAAI/AAAAAAAAAiU/rEHGoJ0kAGU/s320/9+15+08+ALL+trade-750460.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SM7Mn0uK51I/AAAAAAAAAic/Z-Sn7pr73Ts/s320/9+15+08+VRSN+trade-750991.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SM7Mn_YUpVI/AAAAAAAAAik/clwm1mX6HNY/s320/9+15+08+HON+trade-751609.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SM7MoKJckBI/AAAAAAAAAis/JMLnbUQQzSc/s320/9+15+08+OMC+trade-752151.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SM7MoMUY1HI/AAAAAAAAAi0/_leVdOFIwWY/s320/9+15+08+CTSH+trade-752685.gif
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/15/2008 04:58:00 PM
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Trades from today:
I am going to work on coding with NinjaTrader some way to try and not get into these types of trades so "early". The problem with that is when this tactic works the best it is like SD and I am better off fading the move up quickly. If I wait for some indication of a "resumption" to the move down (in the case of SD) I will have given up the best part of the trade, it seems. But, if I am able to avoid getting shaken out of CTSH and OMC which retraced much farther than my entry, this might make up for losing some gains on other trades. This is what I code and back test with NinjaTrader for, so I can see more clearly what really will happen and how these trades will work or not, and what to be prepared for during the day.
As far as this day, to me it was a downtrend day that I had to wait through a large move up in order to get profitable. With this tactic I seem to take losses and go into the red at the beginning of the trades but then there is a turning point and it works out. This is easier to accept when glancing through some charts with back testing, but in the moment it is more amplified and seems more difficult.
With this trade idea I am trying to go through a complete process from coding it and back testing it, doing some forward testing then trading live just to see what happens with all of this. If I get familiar with this process maybe I can do this with some other trade ideas that perhaps will be better.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/15/2008 04:58:00 PM
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9/12/2008GeForce 8800 GT Sucks
This card has no drivers that will work for Windows XP Pro 64bit Service Pack 2. There has been a blue screen of death BSOD issue with this card since at least March 2007 and at the moment it's September 2008. I bought this pos card with no return possible so I learned one hard lesson in my computer build. Also, I really made a mistake by not getting an ATI card with my AMD Quad processor duh. At the moment I am running my old 2 Radeon 7000 with a hacked driver and they are very nice for 32mb. When I save up so more money I will buy some nice new ATI cards. I spent about 7 hours restoring my computer to it's previous functioning, my Windows wouldn't start up the whole nine yards. Stay away from a card like this Nvidia GE Force 8800GT that has no support. I even found a hack for my seven year old printer to run on this computer, but not this brand new card. Garbage.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/12/2008 07:57:00 PM
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A correct losing day:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsAO9T-aWI/AAAAAAAAAhM/blqlySIH3iw/s320/9+12+08+PBG+traded-718633.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsAPbzbyfI/AAAAAAAAAhU/VkJJ9I8HZ1I/s320/9+12+08+GME+traded-720336.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsAP8LrdDI/AAAAAAAAAhc/sKWZQ9kbleo/s320/9+12+08+EBAY+traded-722246.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsAQSnOTPI/AAAAAAAAAhk/ElQuSYJPrjY/s320/9+12+08+CTSH+traded-723974.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsAQoDLkGI/AAAAAAAAAhs/parSorcAlds/s320/9+12+08+PBG+autotraded-725715.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsAREfssnI/AAAAAAAAAh0/V1xOnr_BwjY/s320/9+12+08+GME+autotraded-727464.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsARh7UBCI/AAAAAAAAAh8/f9dnF2YJs5I/s320/9+12+08+EBAY+autotraded-729242.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMsASHlhWZI/AAAAAAAAAiE/1ArBcSoR1QE/s320/9+12+08+CTSH+autotraded-731138.gif
In the past I by trading with more discretion I might have been profitable on these trades, but that same discretion causes me to miss much larger gains on those other nice days. It seemed to me over time that I would in the long run be better off taking some losses some days that on other days would keep me in for a larger move. So that is what happened today. The numbers posted are my gain or loss compared to my initial dollar risk. I take different numbers of shares so that I lose or gain the same dollar amount on each trade. This way some $45 stock doesn't affect me more than a $20 stock. At the moment my system doesn't account for a stocks volatility. I try to control this by looking at higher volume stocks between $20 and $50.
I might stop posting for a while until I get a month of this under my belt:
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/12/2008 07:49:00 PM
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Trades from today:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyFNG2IQI/AAAAAAAAAes/TgJEWqbKAgc/s320/9+11+08+WFR+autotrade-759920.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyFKO3MII/AAAAAAAAAe0/IlAHvqQ9B9o/s320/9+11+08+FXI+autotrade-760554.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyFS3TnJI/AAAAAAAAAe8/mGRm_WgKWQY/s320/9+11+08+CTSH+autotrade-761275.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyFcdDXbI/AAAAAAAAAfE/39iW_UWH8wg/s320/9+11+08+HPC+autotrade-761863.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyFjgumiI/AAAAAAAAAfM/n4IAhdfyebY/s320/9+11+08+CHL+autotrade-762511.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyF-xxTsI/AAAAAAAAAfU/QVZf1kt3V5Y/s320/9+11+08+ADSK+autotrade-762964.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyF6I3-UI/AAAAAAAAAfc/FVvy3xXB8Oo/s320/9+11+08+A+autotrade-763645.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyGX6w7cI/AAAAAAAAAfk/IbxQi9984JM/s320/9+11+08+INFY+autotrade-765434.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyGt948OI/AAAAAAAAAfs/F9v6FA3Q3zA/s320/9+11+08+MO+autotrade-766298.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyGnUeUJI/AAAAAAAAAf0/UqnH4ea7z9s/s320/9+11+08+PPL+autotrade-766823.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyG2ROXrI/AAAAAAAAAf8/RbMRTQ039kk/s320/9+11+08+TEL+autotrade-767557.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyHJXWi5I/AAAAAAAAAgE/_fPNQ_Q5tkQ/s320/9+11+08+XLNX+autotrade-768282.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyHPccU4I/AAAAAAAAAgM/vljEVvUkvxc/s320/9+11+08+NVLS+autotrade-768766.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyHeyLXeI/AAAAAAAAAgU/yA9VlEBXEg4/s320/9+11+08+TIF+autotrade-769337.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyHhbD1jI/AAAAAAAAAgc/Sm4-i7z2-3I/s320/9+11+08+ABB+autotrade-769982.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyHuBhjLI/AAAAAAAAAgk/DL_sWpOJQvM/s320/9+11+08+MS+autotrade-770560.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyHwmPBcI/AAAAAAAAAgs/PffXcGXuwFI/s320/9+11+08+EWA+autotrade-771189.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyHy0UfDI/AAAAAAAAAg0/BdFSfxhsW4I/s320/9+11+08+IBN+autotrade-771892.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyIGOTrhI/AAAAAAAAAg8/Jno4vx6euTk/s320/9+11+08+EEM+autotrade-772499.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMnyIc9wJNI/AAAAAAAAAhE/gdnwIOCRZO8/s320/9+11+08+MCHP+autotrade-773255.gif
I have been forward testing with using certain of my scan results that appear by 9.45am, then auto trading that from 9.50am onwards, just to see what I get day by day, because I can and have backtested this. Anyway, today was a great example of the worst kind of day I could have with this. I had a large number of scan results first thing in the morning, then the market reversed and closed on highs. Only CTSH WFR IBN INFY would have been decent. In the next month I should see if my discretionary stock selection for this method is working for me. Maybe not. I sure wouldn't have wanted not would I have been able, to be in all these shorts at once:
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/12/2008 12:36:00 AM
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9/10/2008Built my new computer:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKoiBDPWI/AAAAAAAAAds/bMh_SeSD93k/s320/9+9+08+RDC+actual+trade-741403.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKpcbBFrI/AAAAAAAAAd0/3iVqr1lKlQY/s320/9+9+08+COG+actual+trade-744277.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKrOk6ZsI/AAAAAAAAAd8/jB8zclZycaM/s320/9+9+08+AKS+actual+trade-746264.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKroJFIBI/AAAAAAAAAeE/GhS0DGmFO4Q/s320/9+9+08+TS+autotrade-754377.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKrzP2bII/AAAAAAAAAeM/kXTIZp6fw3c/s320/9+9+08+RDC+autotrade-755627.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKsGyjD0I/AAAAAAAAAeU/ciIOe3MyG8g/s320/9+9+08+COG+autotrade-756650.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKsZduu6I/AAAAAAAAAec/bFzxoxUYkfg/s320/9+9+08+AKS+autotrade-757296.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMiKs_59stI/AAAAAAAAAek/1h0bnUHkCXs/s320/9+9+08+TS+actual+trade-758399.gif
Here are some trades from yesterday, contrasting with what the autotraded version would've done. I still need to work on this.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/10/2008 11:03:00 PM
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9/08/2008Got Dell?
I bought a Dell Inspiron 4600 with two nice monitors and two nice video cards last year from a graphic designer friend. This spring the power supply went (second time in that) and I replaced it with a nice high wattage one. Now I get this weird yellow light issue that searching online seems to require replacing the motherboard, so I give up on this. Don't want to keep throwing money at this. To my dismay this computer is at the top of one list of the top ten worst computers ever built. Too bad I didn't do due diligence. The monitors and cards tho still make this an ok deal.
Anyway, I decided to build my own computer, since the computer I am using now is about 5 years old and was built for me at a small computer shop in Canada. Decent parts are still holding up, and you do get what you pay for I think. So I will attempt to build a monster system at about hald the price I would have to pay from TrendMicroPC or another seemingly high rated computer maker. Alienware was bought by Dell and if you look at epinions you can see their customer service suffered. I spent about a week researching this build and I ordered the parts from Newegg with some extra warrantys so if I have any parts issues I can easily return them directly to Newegg (i.e. any DOA parts).
Hopefully I don't mess this up.
Meanwhile, I think I will stick to trading this one system applied to the stocks that apear on my alerts. The discretionary elements will be stock selection and some sort of bias on what sort of day it appears to be. For instance this morning with the monster gap up, I thought some longs might be more risky, and a really nice short will do ok no matter what. These sort of monster gaps often the whole move is done right out of the gate with the stock. At the end of the day I will compare this to my backtesting-forward testing rules and see what happened. If over time the extremely stringent rules I use in the backtesting prove to be beating "me" than I will get even less disctretionary with this.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/08/2008 01:13:00 PM
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9/04/2008Some trades from today:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMB0KoNa43I/AAAAAAAAAdU/GDSiNHPfCs8/s320/9+4+08+TJX+autotraded-702601.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMB0K4g-rII/AAAAAAAAAdc/hktqHQp-vo0/s320/9+4+08+JNPR+autotraded-703362.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SMB0LNuvPcI/AAAAAAAAAdk/Tc9xW9NaGws/s320/9+4+08+BIIB+autotraded-703990.gif
This was another ideal day. I didn't trade as many stocks as I could of. Here are the way the stocks I traded look with the backtesting of my strategy, I actually traded them pretty much exactly like this, but instead of exiting at the close I had to exit at 1.50pm. I took the partials in BIIB and JNPR but I did not do an additional entry on those, I haven't been able to code this partialling thing correctly in NinjaTrader quite yet. As my backtesting seems to prove, if in fact I have everything working for me on this idea, I can hold into a few minutes before the close for a decent exit. I'm working on some other ideas so that hopefully I am not taking too much loss on the unideal days for this sort of trade. One thing is often I have much fewer stocks appearing on those "bad" days so that should limit my activity anyway..
Recently I narrowed my stock criteria to include stocks only between $20 and $50 with over 2 million average volume a day. I like this because I have fewer stocks and they are less likely to nail me with crazy slippage and other volatile moves, even though in the past I used to like that sort of thing. With this universe of stocks, I think it is more likely I can simply increase my size.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/04/2008 07:49:00 PM
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9/03/2008Some backtesting and real trading:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SL9CwGbGzqI/AAAAAAAAAck/HYElb3s-zeg/s320/9+3+08+STLD+by+auto+traded+strategy-716748.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SL9CwUos-yI/AAAAAAAAAcs/6hdvhyiM3z8/s320/9+3+08+KLAC+by+auto+traded+strategy-717244.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SL9Cwt_vNmI/AAAAAAAAAc0/8Lc-QU9U7H8/s320/9+3+08+ACN+by+auto+traded+strategy-718013.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SL9CwnYIQAI/AAAAAAAAAc8/rX_grANLDu4/s320/9+3+08+VRTX+style3+by+auto+traded+strategy-718833.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SL9Cw_9u6dI/AAAAAAAAAdE/BEIIdWHPKXU/s320/9+3+08+VRTX+style2+by+auto+traded+strategy-719345.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SL9CxCIEoVI/AAAAAAAAAdM/4zobBMnvwrA/s320/9+3+08+VRTX+style1+by+auto+traded+strategy-720518.gif
This year has been difficult. I had my best month in January and then my trading sort of hit the rocks, for some reasons I think I know why. Then, my father got sick with a suprise and I spent a week with him in the hospital, and then dealing with Dr's appointments and generally putting trading on the back burner for safety reason since I didn't want to have my distratction cause anything drastic. Then my part time job became full time because of the busy summer season. I also went to LAs Vegas for a 3 day Bright Trading thing, and that made me decide to learn some new things, because some of what they showed seemed to be very different from the subjective way I trade, and I thought one of their concepts could be my second core tactic.
One of the ideas I came across was from a Bright trader I met up with and hit it off with, he convinced me to try backtesting ideas. So I have been messing with NinjaTrader and C# programming some trading ideas to apply to the stocks that appear on my carefully worked out Trade Ideas scans. These stocks on their ideal days make nice moves IF they make some move at all. My scanner usually has less results on days of stagnation, and if there is some bias in the futures, these stocks will usually outperform in that direction. On whippy choppy days, I will likely lose money, hence my search for another tactic to offset this.
Anyway, in my testing with NinjaTrader of some common trade ideas, I found one that worked great in reverse as an entry. I have since coded another tactic that I learned of from a buddy, and is taught by a guru and uses indicators. Today I used some of those ideas to try to trade ACN KLAC STLD and VRTX which when they appeared on my scans seemed like decent stocks to try to get shorts in on this day where there was selling. I didn't have the greatest results, but it was interesting to trade with some of these backtested concepts and have some larger perspective on how these tactics and styles might work on THIS DAY in realtime.
I went and backtested these four stocks with these tactics, and my original suprising reverse entry thing seems to still be the winner, which makes sense because it contains two tactics that are the hardest to do in a discretionary way; one is to fade a spike up by selling into it, and the other is to hold a stock all the way into the close with a wide trailing stop. No matter how I tweak this with my backtesting and other exit ideas, this holding with a wide trailing stop is the only way I can get those rare very large winners and from backtesting I can see clearly I really have no clue (other than my scans) which stock will do this.
Once thing I am also looking at is if one of these tactic ideas has perhaps a low profit but has a very smooth equity curve and fewer losses and drawdowns. This kind of tactic would be easier for me to trade day in and day out, and I could also apply much larger size to it to get the larger gains.
None of the stuff I am going into here is some invention of mine, but, it is fun to apply this stuff to some things I already have been trading and that at one point I was doing well with. I would like to get more systematic about parts of my trading, but more or less focus on the stocks I have been trading all along.
Here are some images of ACN KLAC STLD VRTX with some different systems I have been working on and back testing. What I find interesting again is that the tactic that is much more profitable over time (when I run it against two lists of stocks as my out of sample testing) seems least effective when I look at it one day at a time, compared to the fancier tactics.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/03/2008 10:06:00 PM
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9/01/2008About C#
I used to program text games in Basic on a Vic 20 lol. I never did get a Commodore 64. Anyway, I am finding programming C# pretty easy to use within Ninjatrader, but I want to be able to use it in general. So far I have found some good tutorials, and here is one:
http://www.csharp-station.com/Tutorials/Lesson01.aspx
Posted by Chrisnyork at 9/01/2008 06:04:00 PM
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8/27/2008Ninjatrader
Today I attempted to run some simulated auto trading on 16 stocks at once using Ameriturds data feed within Ninjatrader. When I got all 16 running after about 1 or 2 minutes my real time quotes would stop and there were no error messages nor any way to force a reconnect (as I can do in Quotetracker). I had to restart and I tried to get this working 3 times including once with no charts open in case that was maxing something or other out. This doesn't make me too confidant in getting Ninjatrader running even more symbols or anything more complicated. I sure take Quotetrackers reliability for granted, plus it has simpler and faster things for using stock portfolios.
I may just have to use Ninjatrader only for backtesting. My strategy today would've been hammered because I had a whole ton of oil exploration stocks on my list and I was pretty sure they would get faded off highs and they did, none trended very well into the close. Still, this is a worthwhile period of experimentation. Two things I have discovered, one is a really great entry tactic and the other is how simply holding into the close of a very strong or weak stock is often the best way to get gains.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/27/2008 08:35:00 PM
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8/26/2008Trading my strategy:
Today was a losing day which I sort of figured just because often there is a day of rest after a trend day like yesterday. But, I am just trying to trade this system exactly, so that I can see up close some of the real life issues of trading one concept that is able to be traded automated (tho I manually enter the signals). I would like to add some more requirements before trades are taken, maybe something to do with where the futures are to the previous days range. I noticed that my entry tactic on SPY yesterday was golden, but today it was whipsawed. I've come across this issue in the past with how I trade, but it is interesting to see this stuff from within the context of a very disciplined trading tactic.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/26/2008 08:41:00 PM
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8/25/2008What I am doing now:
I came across a hilarious entry tactic, I back tested one common idea and found it had amazingly low accuracy, so I reversed it and there was a very high accuracy entry. It's one I have more or less seen for ages but there is no way I could enter a trade in this manner with discretionary trade entry. I then back tested different trade management ideas and it seems one keeps winning. I then tested using this idea on my Trade Ideas scan alerts. I looked at what alerts I had received by 9.45am and then back tested that day from 9.50am on. Some days were losers but it did seem that I had larger winning days than losses. During the time I tested the long version was much more profitable than the short version. I kind of solved the position sizing question by limiting my scans to stocks between $20 and $50 with over 2 million a day average volume.
So today I decided to trade this live using the orders from the NinjaTrader sim account and entering them manually in my account. I find I usually can get in my trade pretty fast and I am not micro scalping here. To my suprise today was an ideal down trend day and I have done well. Both the entry and the trade management are two tactics that would be impossible for me to excecute discretionary, but they proved to be the best for this ONE TACTIC. I am looking at a more mean reversion tactic that might perform ok on the choppy days and smooth out when this one loses. So far I like this direction I am taking, I get to participate on those nice moving stocks I've been watching for years, but in a much more systematic and back tested way. It's such a relief that I am willing to trade this even if maybe it is not that profitable. I want to go through this whole experience and then see how to apply this to other trade ideas that in the end CAN be automated. NinjaTrader complies their code into C# so I hope there is a possibility of using some of these tactics in other order entry systems.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/25/2008 03:35:00 PM
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8/22/2008Back testing
I stumbled on a pretty good entry tactic, one I have seen I guess but I couldn't trade on my own it's too weird. I have been testing this along with different types of exits on the stocks that appear on my trade ideas scans, along with running it on a wide set of other stocks just to see if I can find some flaws or ways to get better results. So far it seems to be pretty robust, and I went through a set of my scan results by 9:45am each day then back tested the tactic from 9.50am on, both long and shorts. The longs have done well this month and the shorts a small loss. I also tried trading this tactic live this week one day. So far this is interesting and seems to be a way out of the super subjective way I have been trading.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/22/2008 09:03:00 PM
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8/18/200820 day new highs today
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKnlCGbaHzI/AAAAAAAAAcc/LsolVK063E4/s320/8+18+08+backtest+results+20day+new+highs-766492.gif
This list did well with this auto trading tactic considering the downtrend in the market, +$1.2 with 1 share.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/18/2008 05:09:00 PM
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Concept
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKnZ6biF5HI/AAAAAAAAAa0/7KJuSvVMPR8/s320/8+18+08+backtest+results+HSY-718925.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKnZ7AuK_hI/AAAAAAAAAa8/s53qMksymN4/s320/8+18+08+backtest+results+SYMC-722193.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKnZ8ALuA1I/AAAAAAAAAbE/qU86srXOYvo/s320/8+18+08+backtest+results+BJS-725426.gif
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKnZ9J481jI/AAAAAAAAAbU/kOSCpNF-V1I/s320/8+18+08+backtest+results+NVS-731579.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKnZ-Aa-01I/AAAAAAAAAbc/GOFdw9_vG7s/s320/8+18+08+backtest+results+IBN-734925.gif
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http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKnaDYo9PTI/AAAAAAAAAcU/J06H_dvzsz0/s320/8+18+08+backtest+results+WYNN-755763.gif
I have been learning Ninja Trader strategy wizard to use backtesting. So far it has been incredibly interesting. First props to my pal xxxxx from Bright Trading, who sort of convinced me to look into system trading and backtesting.
I accidently discovered an interesting entry concept when one of the ideas I backtested was a big loser. To my suprise when I reversed it there was a very nice entry. I decided to try to apply this entry in a short only direction to todays list of my 20 day new lows (which are filtered by range and other things). This 20 day new lows alert from Trade Ideas doesn't always get me into great stocks, but it seems that IF they ARE going to trend down they do so in a similar way. Of course, today a short bias was good from the move in the overall market. In fact, a day like to today IS ideal for some of the shorts I do. So I wanted to see if I could come up with an automated way to trade my list.
Here are the results. With no position sizing and trading 1 share I had a gain of $5.3. If you look at these charts of the trading in todays list of stocks, I was pleased with being able to come up with this on the fly in a few hours.
Some issue to address are:
1) Position sizing based on either price of the stock or volatility.
2) Having some concept of an overall bias in the market based on the futures action, maybe with Fishers ACD idea to define a range or trend day.
3) Getting the trade ideas alerts to get into either Ninja Trader or an auto trading program that will use this trade concept.
4) Auto trading this both long and short with my Broker and perhaps with REDI in the future.
I could see spending months or a year to get this together, and I will likely need a lot of help. Not sure I will do all this but at least I can see how far one can take back testing and auto trading.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/18/2008 04:21:00 PM
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8/17/2008Ninja Trader
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SKixQ7BJbUI/AAAAAAAAAas/4AY9K-IixEI/s320/croxbacktested-779381.gif
I am messing around in Ninja Trader backtesting some ideas. Here is one sort of like a Turtle Trader concept. I ran this on CROX which as you can see would be great to get some of that huge move up and down. Of course it would be hard to know whether you are trading something as excellent as CROX except in hindsight. But, CROX did show up many days on some of my new daily highs and gappers scans, as well as a scan I have of stock extended from their daily SMA's.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/17/2008 07:16:00 PM
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8/15/2008Some other ways to trade:
FWIW, The Complete Arbitrage Deskbook by Stephane Revere has a great section on pair trading and he did some backtesting on pairs, and even "proves" the concept of using stocks in the same sector. The backtesting shows some really solid results, much more than I would've imagined possible. One concept which I saw formulas for was taking a 30 period daily moving average of the deviation of the spread between two very correlated stocks. Then, fading that spread at 1.5 deviations. His strategy was simply to end the position at the close of the next day, and it was consistently profitable. Seeing this data was eye opening to me. If you check on Google books you can basically read this section.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/15/2008 11:11:00 AM
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8/12/2008Something on Bollinger Bands by Bollinger
http://www.bollingerbands.com/services/bb/?page=1
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/12/2008 01:35:00 PM
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8/02/2008Some more ideas from Bright:
I have been doing opening orders that Bright teaches, and I am pleased that I can do this tactic with my retail MB Trading account, I have been checking with some folks and I am getting filled with the specialist. What is most interesting is that most of the time this opening fill (which has been in my favor for the most part) doesn't appear on the time and sales as I watch it, and if you look at a 1min candle stick chart you really have no clue that this strategy is within that first minutes volatility. I am going to be trying to study this tactic especially in terms of stop losses and profit targets for these certain stocks. I like the info I am trying to find out with this, and it is a real contrast to the very subjective trading I otherwise do.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 8/02/2008 07:59:00 PM
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7/30/2008
Deliberately doing an off-plan losing trade is a source of comfort. It is uncomfortable to think that our edge, while positive over a string of trades, might still lose from one trade to the next. It means that while we can control our action over a sequence of trades and be profitable at the end of that sequences period of time, we cannot control the outcome of the very next trade. In addition it is uncomfortable because we are never sure whether the particular edge we are currently working won't vanish one day. In fact, it is not our particular edge but the fact that we are able to come up with an edge and then consistently work it, that will make us profitable.
So in sum, it is more comforting to deliberately take a losing trade because we can always say to ourselves "well if I had followed my plan this wouldn't have been a losing trade" when in fact from one trade to the next, we are uncomfortably faced with the prospect of not knowing whether the single particular trade will be a winner or loser. So the certain failure is an acceptable choice if we feel the need for control, a control over the uncertainty we face trade by trade. Otherwise we have to accept our lack of control over an individual trades outcome. This also explains why the need for money, or trading with scared money, is often incredibly difficult.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/30/2008 09:54:00 PM
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7/21/2008Test run
I decided, similar to trying out trading only GE, that I would see about another tactic Bright Trading mentions. I made a pair of COP and CVX and then charted the spread between them. Since they trade about the same price I used a ration of 1, so for instance long 100 cop short 100 CVX. I then put a Bollinger Band, 20sma and a Stochastic on a chart. With this pair basically it is possible to trade the relationship of these two stocks while removing the market influence of the futures and OIH. This is the idealized example.
What happened was I noticed that today COP was relatively strong compared to CVX right from the open, so trades going against this lost more than going with this strength. Also CVX is more volatile so perhaps the ration should be less than 1. In practice if I waited patiently to fade some extremes it was an OK trade. I can see that if I collect statistics based on the average volatility of these stocks, compared to time of day, the futures, earnings near or far, time of month and time of year, on a rolling basis that updates daily, maybe I could be more exact on the entries and exits.
I like to test things out head first so that I then have clues about the problems with the concept. On this trade the entry was very key. Also like other times I have used stochastics and Bollinger Bands (and dislike them) I found myself getting into positions against a trend. This is where more sophisticated back testing would be helpful, but at least I know this first hand. Also I can imagine how different types of days could really make this style different in practice. In a way if I see that one needs an "art" to a trade idea it makes me think it is more realistic, otherwise it perhaps would be faded already. Some "art" ideas would be to determine if there was a trend day or not in OIH and have different trade tactics. Some ideas for determining a trend day I have heard about from this guy: http://www.thelogicaltraderonline.com/index.html
One very interesting thing about this idea was I was entering and exiting trades in areas that were not obvious when looking at the charts individually. Another was the idea of looking at only a few symbols, in this case COP CVX OIH and futures. From my experience trading Toni Hansen's gap ideas consistently, I know that by sticking to one style (and perhaps a small number of stocks) you can really get a handle on a ton of subtleties that really are what make it profitable.
Now AON, I know what you are thinking lol. I just want to have walked a mile in the shoes of these other styles. Maybe there is a way to smooth out some of these base break ideas with much more mundane tactics.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/21/2008 06:38:00 PM
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7/19/2008Pair trading
http://www.traderslog.com/trading-pairs.htm
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/19/2008 09:19:00 PM
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7/18/20083 day Bright class
I went and I wanted to hear from anyone else that did. I thought it was worth the bucks to see what is up over there, and look Don and Bob in the eyes, plus it was in Vegas.
Don did ok with the opening orders and I saw some of the art to that which made me think it was for real.
Ron showed this automated spreadsheet trading some Pairs that I was impressed with.
Cash showed some trades that look like what I do.
Randy kept his cards close to his vest, but I picked up some tidbits I am checking out now.
As soon as Bob opened his mouth tho, I knew I was in for a treat. That dude has seem some stuff in his day. It was fun to hear him lecture about the reality of the market, I thought I was cynical. Plus he took us for drinks and I got to chat with him some more.
Overall, I think it was worth a look see for that price. I'm not sure what my next step is, but, I thought it was worth the effort to see this operation up close.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 7/18/2008 10:12:00 PM
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6/16/2008Another hiatus:
I am studying this fading tactic. If I can see the other side of my losing trades, I maybe can avoid them. So far I am having interesting results. If this can be that grinding tactic I want, to contrast with the homers, I will be happy. So far it's very simple, if I see some "base break" that really is truly wrong, or, a large move into resistance, it seems under circumstances I am studying, it is a nice fade.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 6/16/2008 03:33:00 PM
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6/05/2008Done churning:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SEigKB9MQgI/AAAAAAAAAY0/-ybyLg4pacY/s320/6+5+08+AUXL+trade-744152.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SEigKSTBroI/AAAAAAAAAY8/lomIdaBywlc/s320/6+5+08+NUE+trade-745197.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SEigKupihLI/AAAAAAAAAZE/830O2jHV4_4/s320/6+5+08+VRTX+trade-746262.gif
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http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SEigLeptuhI/AAAAAAAAAZc/CniOaciY9O0/s320/6+5+08+INFY+trade-748924.gif
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I have to go back to basics. Overtrading in a market that clearly doesn't lend itself to my style. I tried to join the party with a short in NUE off the days highs which was on ok little scalp, and I tried a similar trade in WMT but was too chicken, but I was correct in that idea. In fact, it seems there is some trade idea I can get out of some of these losses. If I can see a "bad" version of my setup, then the spike I usually trade in one direction, maybe I can trade in the other. At any rate, too many trades, frustrated, I need to take some days off. Later.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 6/05/2008 10:25:00 PM
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6/04/2008The market is trying to teach me to trade:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SEdCCVHux7I/AAAAAAAAAX0/hNrL1Uqp_WY/s320/6+4+08+WTI+trade-713310.gif
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I need to learn what it is showing me. I know I am supposed to do these fast exits of mediocre trades, for better or worse. I know I need to just take some proft at certain points, if they are based on equal move locations and number support resistance. What I would like to do is have much less losing trades, which I have been able to do in the past. I would find I would leave some money on the table on the super great days, but, my defensive playing would leave me with less damage from whippy markets like this that are trying to bust out my style.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 6/04/2008 09:31:00 PM
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6/03/2008Practiced taking smaller losses today:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SEXHrVHuxpI/AAAAAAAAAVk/DdxSMouQdXM/s320/6+3+08+DRIV+2nd+trade-752956.gif
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I kept trading waiting for things to click into place in whatever flow it is I get that leads to some nice trading. But that didn't happen. Maybe it was the market but it was mostly me. I should've been a little more patient while this doldrums dragged on and then finally broke in the afternoon. I could've lost more today but I didn't. There must be a better way to trade the stuff I have in front of me from my scans.
VRTX, MON and WNR I need to have the larger time frames in sight, those did have some nice moves but not for where I traded them.
DTV was a nice bail. It's hard to just get right out of these like that.
ROH looks idiotic to be getting the exact wrong side of some range moves. In general today I noticed that at times there are other chances to get better prices, though in UNP, DTV, SHW not the case.
TNB SE I thought had a nicer move lower with the way the market dropped down, but, I took some when they stalled otherwise wouldn't gotten any profit from them.
DRIV and AIZ I like because I waited longer than the first pop, so I didn't have to wait through some chop that likely I would've bailed on.
It used to be I would try to limit the number of trades I take, but some days it just seems like what I have to do. I have a theory that if on the good days I had recently I was making g's instead of hundreds, that I would be more willing to let some day like this drift by without any worry about not having a trade. But because my gains, and losses, are all on the small size it makes me want to have a green day no matter what, even when hours of chop go by. I didn't see much from the gappers to get my excited so this day was not a surprise until the Obama drop. It confirms to me btw that this country is possibly more sexist than racist lol.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 6/03/2008 04:58:00 PM
2 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
6/02/2008Churned
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I went from a nice up day to a small loss. I became lunch during lunch. I should've switched to half risk. I felt paralyzed by my gains and sometimes I have to blow that out with some losses. I had some ok trades in some stocks that moved nicely. I'm going to look closely at my lunch time losses as those moves I have been able to avoid in the past. HOC I got some good out of it but there was more.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 6/02/2008 04:25:00 PM
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5/31/2008My trades yesterday:
INFY: This trade had the kind of daily and 60min chart that I look for to have a larger move. My entry wasn't so great because there wasn't a very long base after the move out of the open. This kind of trade if there is a base during the first 5mins a breakout after 9.35a is usually a great trade, but in this case I was too aggressive even though by the end of the day I was right from the larger time frame point of view that I was looking for in the first place. So here I was right and wrong, but basically I got rinsed in a sucker location. Oh well.
OVTI: Now that I see these two trades back to back like this, I can see I was being too aggressive in general yesterday am. At least with OVTI I took my small loss which I didn't want to do on INFY because I was more convinced about the move. In OVTI this was not a super great daily or 60min such as INFY. When I found myself hesitating with CHK the way I was on INFY I bailed on CHK and saved myself a loss there. It is still hard for me to accept at times how many wrong trades I take, but, when I can cut and run fast even though I do get rinsed of some decent trades, it allows me to press in more risky market environments yet not have a large losing day.
MRVL: This was an excessive gap but to me we are in a full fledged bull market every since the buy the dippers showed up after the market retracement recently. Plus there is steady doom and gloom out there. Anyway, I want to be more aggressive on the long side these days because I have a permanent short bias, but in the conditions I see now one can buy new highs and just hold old school style, which rarely works but I have seen a lot of price action like that recently in some stocks. Anyway, as far as MRVL is concerned let me list some of the objective criteria that I use with my scanning; A gap to some type of daily new highs, a consolidation right from the open (no new highs during the first 5min) then a nice 9.35a breakout, there was even a tiny Toni Hansen D pattern and even a 1 2 3 continuation on the 1min. When the price stalled after the move above 17.20 I thought the chances of an easy move to 17.45 were lessened so I took some profit, then when it again stalled before the 17.45 I took some more but higher, then I did a trailing stop because I wasn't interested in holding through a long correction that might turn around and rip down through my entry and even my stop. I had a pretty nice tight stop and with some other management I could've gotten higher gains from this but oh well.
JCG: These kind of super large gaps on a NYSE stock I simply don't trust. In general I have been ill the last few days so I see my judgment is more cagey. So I bailed on this right away but it was for nothing. Overall this wasn't a great trade so I didn't miss out on much but.
SPWR: This was on my gappers list but it did not fit the new daily highs type of criteria so I kept this on a tighter leash. When it spike through to 81.50 area I held for a bounce but only to 81.78 I could've gotten 82 and not only that, I just was getting rinsed anyway. After hitting 83 SPWR did do the kind of correction I don't want to hold through. This means at times I am getting out too soon but I prefer to not hold on the mediocre trades. The really great trades I can even trail them with ridiculous tight stops and they just don't take me out, so then on those I will get the larger gains.
HRS: This had the criteria I look for, and that was taught me by Toni Hansen. This had a con I call "already wide intraday range" which is again why I let myself get taken out near breakeven. With too many cons I just don't know what the pace reversal I am seeing will lead to. In this case it was another rinse, but on CHK and INFY (didn't manage that though) this was the start of a rip to the stops. On INFY in hindsight I could've bailed right after I got in, or right below 46.70 at 9.45a.
CHK: Here is me bailing fast when the pace I see happening in the moment is bad for my trade idea. As I say over and over, at times this might be only a rinse, but, when I see this bad pace right after I got in I tend to assume now it is a bad trade, and that me not wanting to admit it is a bad trade will cost me too much. On the great trades, I never really wonder if the trade is any good, it is usually great from the start and stays great, right up till I am out and wondering why I left so much on the table. CHK I might just take this type of trade again in the future. One obvious con is the pace from 10.03a to 10.05a was stronger to the downside than the pace up from 10.05a to 10.15a. This was a change of pace to the downside. If you look at the 15min chart you can see the slower pace to the downside from 12.30p to 13.00.
HPQ: This was a Jay style short. I think I was going against the market flow here. What's interesting is that there was an entire 3min stochastic cross to the downside during which HPW moved down about .10. I bailed at a good spot. Later both HPQ and X tanked. I have no idea how to do this Jay style better, but, I have had high accuracy with it so far, and worth half a risk. Plus I like doing it at around 10.45a when I think there is often a good correction to the overall markets action from the morning.
X: This was where the stochastics where still a trendometer and not yet oversold. You can see the collapse later from the overbought. Oh well. Trading is different when a loss is accepted on any trade you take. I am starting to really not care about taking one loss. For this to continue I need to get some larger gains such as this:
http://stockdaytrading.blogspot.com/2008/05/my-trades-from-today_27.html
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/31/2008 03:28:00 PM
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5/30/2008Day 3 hunt and peck:
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http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SECZXVHuxZI/AAAAAAAAATk/SyDn4bMlLVo/s320/5+30+08+INFY+trade-716922.gif
My excuse is I've been sick or suffering allergies. Either way, it takes some skill to lose money going long INFY. I was too tired to do my charts last night.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/30/2008 08:18:00 PM
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5/28/2008Hunt and peck day:
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On days like this I used to lose a lot of money. Some of my exits took me out of things that with more patience would've been a decent little trade, but, I don't want to have this patience if it means waiting for something to do a huge reversal and run my stops. Either a trade is a homer or it isn't, in which case f it.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/28/2008 04:21:00 PM
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5/27/2008My trades from today:
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http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDyfcFHuxDI/AAAAAAAAAQ0/8sffc6q-Lak/s320/5+27+08+IBM+trade-728094.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDyfcFHuxEI/AAAAAAAAAQ8/vr0AjWMJIeE/s320/5+27+08+PDX+trade-728696.gif
I need to do these Jay stochastic style trades differently from the other stuff. I don't know it well enough, maybe I will go in his room for a month. PDX the large gains came from waiting to take larger size off farther away, and a tight stop that could've been even tighter. I think if I can trade like PDX more then it would be worth it to try for larger size.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/27/2008 07:55:00 PM
1 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
5/23/2008underground trader style
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDdULlHuxBI/AAAAAAAAAQk/H_-cDu3pjBg/s320/5+23+08+FCX+trade-781972.gif
I must say, I have been doing this Underground trader tactic at around the 10.45a - 11am correction period. So far I have really had few losses, it is a different style, mostly I need to be patient and kind of ignore stuff that I would use to bail on my other style. It is a bit more objective because it uses and indicator, but, it also needs some finesse and experience. As I have noticed before, the 3min entry was also good for the 8min and 13min stochastic move, so I exited this trade too early, but I am still getting the hang of this. Overall this tactic is working very well right from the get go so that is impressive.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/23/2008 07:32:00 PM
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5/22/2008Summer trading:
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There was no summer trading today. But, I do recall that some of these 3 day weekends will cause some slower action around them.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/22/2008 09:53:00 PM
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5/21/2008Trades from today:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDSMpIJ2mgI/AAAAAAAAAPE/VXfZQYHvFIw/s320/5+21+08+LEH+trade-727821.gif
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDSMq4J2mjI/AAAAAAAAAPc/Y6ZNqteQLEU/s320/5+21+08+CAM+trade-735117.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDSMrIJ2mkI/AAAAAAAAAPk/ILZSAGkSbQw/s320/5+21+08+PBR+trade-736227.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDSMrYJ2mlI/AAAAAAAAAPs/y0Ni2Frkk7c/s320/5+21+08+VRTX+trade-736852.gif
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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDSMroJ2mnI/AAAAAAAAAP8/3UHpw2UClsY/s320/5+21+08+SLM+trade-738256.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDSMsIJ2moI/AAAAAAAAAQE/S3BzWLsHwKo/s320/5+21+08+UAUA+trade-740055.gif
Today everything went my way. I am starting to see there are two reasons for this. First is that today was a decent day for my style. The second was I was following my plan for the most part, still suffering from not getting larger gains but because of the number of winners it was ok anyway. The problem comes when market conditions are bad and I try to trade like I did today. The reason I will over trade on days with few decent gappers or low volume or whatever, is because I can't accept that some days I can't really make much gains but instead those bad days I really need to accept a small loss or a small gain. But, I have some sort of poverty mentality so that I think that one day with a loss or small gains means I am not a good trader. What I need to do instead is to not have larger losses or not churn on those weak days, and on the days things are flowing my way I should try to make a lot of gains. I think I can smooth this out if I have some other tactics that work a little better on the choppy days, like the underground trader stuff, or the momo reversal stuff or maybe something I don't know yet.
The problem I have overall is that the way I trade now really barely merits increasing size or trying to trade for a living. I don't know when this is supposed to change, other things in trading simply took a long time and a lot of experience. Meanwhile, I will continue to work my three part time jobs. Recently I got health insurance for a great price from this NY state program, so, at least I am no longer in risk of financial disaster from some illness or accident. Another step forward would be to buy a house for cash, but that is a ways off.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/21/2008 04:56:00 PM
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5/20/2008Trade today:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDNkCIJ2mcI/AAAAAAAAAOk/n9xQNdw_U_w/s320/5+20+08+APOL+trade-796479.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDNkCYJ2mdI/AAAAAAAAAOs/vz5xIpBLlEQ/s320/5+20+08+EXC+trade-797460.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDNkCoJ2meI/AAAAAAAAAO0/6it2uuRwQb4/s320/5+20+08+COF+trade-798022.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SDNkDIJ2mfI/AAAAAAAAAO8/eo4qOZRgka8/s320/5+20+08+GE+trade-799481.gif
I spent four days in New Castle DE it was very nice.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/20/2008 07:51:00 PM
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5/13/2008Lousy trading:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov74J2mUI/AAAAAAAAANk/2uokB8vqiQI/s320/5+13+08+CI+trade-735386.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov9YJ2mVI/AAAAAAAAANs/nUGnvb9zky4/s320/5+13+08+PRGO+trade-740892.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov9YJ2mWI/AAAAAAAAAN0/eBlrguSqTBY/s320/5+13+08+AGYS+trade-741577.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov9oJ2mXI/AAAAAAAAAN8/HONviCYSxEU/s320/5+13+08+ZMH+trade-742409.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov94J2mYI/AAAAAAAAAOE/uAWaJvZjzJY/s320/5+13+08+BDX+trade-743000.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov-IJ2mZI/AAAAAAAAAOM/kS2PoNGiYBY/s320/5+13+08+FSYS+trade-743747.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov-IJ2maI/AAAAAAAAAOU/Q0O4alGg6FA/s320/5+13+08+CSUN+trade-744467.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCov-YJ2mbI/AAAAAAAAAOc/C6_to_jlxSA/s320/5+13+08+WRNC+trade-745083.gif
I should be chilling on days like the last two days. I had some warning because the gappers list was kind of slim pickings, but I traded full tilt instead. I want to learn another tactic that is more immune to these days, and try to keep this stuff for those times when it is easier, which seems to be during earnings season for one thing, and for sure not every single day.
ZMH: This was the best trade, and it rinsed me up to 68 before dropping under 67. This was not the best type of daily or 60min chart.
AGYS was some garbage gapper that I really have no business trying to do anything with. I managed to get rinsed like a sucker before it did drop. I should've done my early exit on this when it reversed hard off of 10 at 9.52am.
PRGO shows the drawback of this exit. This never hit my stop (which was too wide anyway) and then it dropped later. Of these three trades so far, AGYS at least was a gap out of a consolidation, but it was such a thin junk cheap stock. Both PRGO and ZMH were already on the move down, so it's harder to play these since they do have a chance of a larger reversal since this is not the first day out of a daily or 60 minute base.
CI did have a decent daily or 60 min. Again my defensive exit was just me getting rinsed. There was a chance of another entry later, and considering I lost a small amount on this try, it would've been decent to get in at the breakdown at 11am.
WRNC was an avalanche but this setup had a big drawback in that there was not a long base leading up to this move at 10.21a, so this was much more of just a rinse down. I exited where I did by accident and then it was already starting to correct up, I probably would've taken a loss on this as well.
CSUN was another junk stock that sort of seems like a decent daily and 60 min, but look at the way it trades, better to avoid this junk. Especially with 11 resistance right over head, so there was not a decent chane of good risk reward, which at least ZMH had.
FSYS this was just a desperate trade. In my dreams it was like a cup with handle. I just got hammered on this like a newbie sucker.
BDX I was again sort of desperate, I thought this was this thing were after 3 waves down, there is a 4th wave that often fails to continue lower and instead reverses up. So in my daydreams this is what I bought. Another loss.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/13/2008 08:18:00 PM
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5/12/2008Some bad trading:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir7oJ2mCI/AAAAAAAAALU/_u4aIqNSbb8/s320/5+12+08+GEOI+trade-705871.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir8IJ2mDI/AAAAAAAAALc/IsjRHPZ2SWw/s320/5+12+08+HWAY+trade-707794.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir8YJ2mEI/AAAAAAAAALk/9cz_2YsJ-fg/s320/5+12+08+RIMM+trade-708781.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir8YJ2mFI/AAAAAAAAALs/Vbdm8hNEzk0/s320/5+12+08+NYX+trade-709521.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir8oJ2mGI/AAAAAAAAAL0/LftwyY4Nzoo/s320/5+12+08+CCOI+trade-710123.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir84J2mHI/AAAAAAAAAL8/d7ivblAqOnU/s320/5+12+08+HOC+trade-711133.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir9IJ2mII/AAAAAAAAAME/LOxRZRoem4c/s320/5+12+08+OMG+trade-712177.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir9YJ2mJI/AAAAAAAAAMM/oHu62WLCSNI/s320/5+12+08+MASI+trade-713219.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir94J2mKI/AAAAAAAAAMU/XynnVc0DKp4/s320/5+12+08+IMCL+trade-715194.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir-IJ2mLI/AAAAAAAAAMc/kcZxCW8tHKA/s320/5+12+08+GYMB+trade-716520.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir-YJ2mMI/AAAAAAAAAMk/mgw-D2k00sY/s320/5+12+08+TEVA+trade-717656.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir-oJ2mNI/AAAAAAAAAMs/-HPEqOJMe30/s320/5+12+08+ANR+2nd+trade-718683.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir-4J2mOI/AAAAAAAAAM0/NgyvDJxPGn8/s320/5+12+08+QQQQ+trade-719384.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir_YJ2mPI/AAAAAAAAAM8/9WjBxe3q6yE/s320/5+12+08+ONXX+trade-720862.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir_YJ2mQI/AAAAAAAAANE/cqngnGMDGPU/s320/5+12+08+JOYG+trade-721464.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir_oJ2mRI/AAAAAAAAANM/DaQ-iWIh5aU/s320/5+12+08+SHO+trade-722473.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCir_4J2mSI/AAAAAAAAANU/gaNPNh-wZAs/s320/5+12+08+ANR+trade-723555.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCisAIJ2mTI/AAAAAAAAANc/0_ccxQNCUiI/s320/5+12+08+ISIS+trade-724395.gif
I couldn't walk away with a tiny loss, but I didn't so I had a larger loss. When I need to make money every day no matter what I trade badly. I did not follow my discipline of exiting the weak no good trades early. I should've done this in TEVA GYMB HWAY and did in CCOI HOC. This early exit cost me in ISIS but overall I need to keep this discipline, because in the best trades there is not much in the way of wiggle.
This day was very choppy and I knew this too, just didn't act quite right on it. The only nice winner was OMG and I didn't get a lot of gain out of that. NYX trade was with a new tactic so I didn't have enough confidence to stay put in it, this style behaves a little different with winners than I am used to, I had a loser with RIMM and a small winner with QQQQ short.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/12/2008 04:43:00 PM
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5/09/2008All my trades from today:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN1-mhXdI/AAAAAAAAAKU/oHzneAMr4i0/s320/5+9+08+PG+trade-727176.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN2emhXeI/AAAAAAAAAKc/fCVOYHlO5u0/s320/5+9+08+VRSN+trade-729414.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN2-mhXfI/AAAAAAAAAKk/tBnsYA-dfGQ/s320/5+9+08+MIR+trade-730743.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN3OmhXgI/AAAAAAAAAKs/17oqRhWRNa8/s320/5+9+08+CMItrade-731743.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN3OmhXhI/AAAAAAAAAK0/J0gUgZfBbaI/s320/5+9+08+BID+trade-732393.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN3emhXiI/AAAAAAAAAK8/k9CGoMjrtnc/s320/5+9+08+AGO+trade-733164.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN3umhXjI/AAAAAAAAALE/II7DnHBdVOg/s320/5+9+08+GEOY+trade-733716.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUN3umhXkI/AAAAAAAAALM/7blrRw6CKEE/s320/5+9+08+ATVI+trade-734323.gif
Two nice winners today that I actually got some larger gains from, like I am supposed to and should've many times in the past.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/09/2008 10:51:00 PM
2 comments Links to this post http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif
Some trades from 5/8/08
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUNl-mhXYI/AAAAAAAAAJs/COmCCMqcX30/s320/5+8+08+MS+trade-763252.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUNmOmhXZI/AAAAAAAAAJ0/EwaYKDRzFBI/s320/5+8+08+LKQX+trade-764441.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUNmemhXaI/AAAAAAAAAJ8/rt3mAh_xVgY/s320/5+8+08+TGT+trade-765053.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUNmumhXbI/AAAAAAAAAKE/fUSs-oH_WZc/s320/5+8+08+FFIV+trade-765954.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCUNmumhXcI/AAAAAAAAAKM/kJxQMFnOzjs/s320/5+8+08+BRL+trade-766675.gif
I have been busy and it's hard to make these charts and posts.
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/09/2008 10:50:00 PM
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5/08/2008Yesterdays trades:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs66wGjqI/AAAAAAAAAIc/AI2WivD8VqU/s320/5+7+08+PWR+trade-778675.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs7KwGjrI/AAAAAAAAAIk/ROt5Vgn2Lbc/s320/5+7+08+KWK+trade-780012.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs7awGjsI/AAAAAAAAAIs/G_Ro64Z22mo/s320/5+7+08+CCI+trade-780804.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs7awGjtI/AAAAAAAAAI0/V-Boj2mWrMo/s320/5+7+08+AGN+trade-781510.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs7qwGjuI/AAAAAAAAAI8/Lw0iSpLyj7o/s320/5+7+08+HAR+trade-782328.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs76wGjvI/AAAAAAAAAJE/LjOEx4gAIFo/s320/5+7+08+VDSI+trade-782888.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs76wGjwI/AAAAAAAAAJM/J9994JwEYBE/s320/5+7+08+RIG+trade-783429.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs8KwGjxI/AAAAAAAAAJU/upK2lnk4u90/s320/5+7+08+THQI+trade-784015.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs8KwGjyI/AAAAAAAAAJc/qJyIkJ9Jb7Y/s320/5+7+08+FMCN+trade-784602.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCOs8awGjzI/AAAAAAAAAJk/DAlyG1F3rYY/s320/5+7+08+NYX+trade-785407.gif
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/08/2008 09:46:00 PM
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5/06/2008My trades from today:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKCRVc_oI/AAAAAAAAAHM/1s_SEN30tbA/s320/5+6+08+SU+Jay+trade-708624.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKCxVc_pI/AAAAAAAAAHU/iIZzc-F8sTU/s320/5+6+08+T+Jay+trade-710464.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKDRVc_qI/AAAAAAAAAHc/Vo8HxY4SkGg/s320/5+6+08+EMR+2nd+trade-713206.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKDhVc_rI/AAAAAAAAAHk/pgYcxDqO2rk/s320/5+6+08+PRGO+trade-714191.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKDxVc_sI/AAAAAAAAAHs/_AoTRfvpQfE/s320/5+6+08+TAP+trade-715481.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKEBVc_tI/AAAAAAAAAH0/-94ohprguPg/s320/5+6+08+ABC+trade-716721.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKERVc_uI/AAAAAAAAAH8/UevWYPaPi-Y/s320/5+6+08+VLO+trade-717278.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKEhVc_vI/AAAAAAAAAIE/MiHpaz58vKQ/s320/5+6+08+PEG+trade-718567.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKFRVc_wI/AAAAAAAAAIM/-GcHA_Nc5Rg/s320/5+6+08+EMR+trade-721542.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Ee5h3kUXAo0/SCEKFxVc_xI/AAAAAAAAAIU/jjXeIuJBYK4/s320/5+6+08+ARG+trade-723469.gif
I'm glad blogger is hosting my images with my posts sent by email, this way I don't have to hog up my server:
Posted by Chrisnyork at 5/06/2008 09:46:00 PM
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