Sunday, October 15, 2006Watch List - ENER, BRCM, JOYG, SNDK
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/400/ener.1.pngEnergy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENER) could move higher after consolidating its recent gains. Target the 200 MA.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/400/brcm.0.pngBroadcom Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:BRCM) looks poised to test resistance ahead of earnings on Thursday AH.
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Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG) is currently consolidating its last leg up from $36.00 to $41.25. Friday it carved out a NRB which could be NR7. Look for a high volume break of reistance at $41.25 with a target of $46.00 (not necessarily all in one session).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/400/sndk.pngSanDisk Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:SNDK) looks poised to break resistance at $60.00 anytime soon. SNDK reports Q3 earnings on Thursday AH. Unlike the last test of this level, the MACD now looks bullish.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2006 10:14:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Technical Resistance Looms Large
Daily Timeframe
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Weekly Timeframe
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60 Minute Timeframe
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From the weekly timeframe, we can see that the NASDAQ is fast approaching the 52 week high set last April. The 60 minute timeframe shows that the delta between price and the trendline is extremely wide, so much so that an accelerated trendline is in play. I'll be watching this trendline closely to see if and when, a tradable pullback or trend reversal comes into play.
In the meantime earnings rule, and the big ones to watch this week are:
Tuesday AH: IBM, INTC, MOT, YHOO
Wed. AH: AMD, AAPL, CTXS, EBAY, GILD, JNPR, NVEC, PLCM
Thurs. AH: BRCM, GOOG, SNDK, RBAK, XLNX
We have no major economic data tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2006 04:53:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Anatomy of a Gap Down Reversal - Polaris Industries Inc. (Public, NYSE:PII)
A reader asks how to play the gap down and reversal on PII. Before analysing a possible setup, let's look at a little background and the technical aspect of the daily chart.
PII gapped down on Thursday October 12th on an earnings miss and downside guidance. It was trading down more than 5% in the pre-market.
A quick look at the daily timeframe showed that PII would likely open near notable support (pink segment) and the 50 day MA which had little or no slope (flat). The two pink arrows mark pivot point resistance on the long side.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/pii.0.png Daily timeframe
Now if we move to the 15 minute timeframe, we see that PII opens just 50 cents shy of technical support carving out a doji with a long upper shadow. The next bar is bullish and takes out the high of the OR but closes below the OR high, however it generates a higher low.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/pii2.png
15 minute timeframeIf we flip over to the 5 minute timeframe, we see that the downsloping 10 period MA is coming down to help push price lower. The first half hour of trade has been NR basically trading between $40.00 and $39.50. At point A, where the 10:00 bar takes out the low of the 9:55 bar, we might decide to take a short position with a preliminary target of $39.00 because the risk reward ratio is very favorable. Our risk is approx. $0.25 and out reward $0.75. As price approaches point B, we would lock in 50% of our profit and hope for a tight consolidation before breaking technical support (pink segment). At point C, we are starting to have doubts because the technical bounce has legs ie. more price momentum than typically corresponds to a consolidation or pullback. Inevitably, we are expecting to get stopped out, but still hoping that the downsloping 20 MA will be observed as resistance. When that doesn't happen, we get stopped out, however, we still have a 50% profit on the trade.
Now getting back to the reader's original question, how to play PII long on a gap fill scenario. Once price has closed above $40.00, it seems clear that a gap fill is in play, so a long entry would be taken around point D, with a stop 10 cents below the 20 MA. This an aggressive play and I would not have taken it, especially with the 50 MA swooning down midway between $40 and $41.oo
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/pii5.png 5 minute timeframe
Going back to the 15 minute view, we can manage the trade from this longer timeframe once the long is safely underway. Exit 50% on the gap fill and set a tight stop as price approaches the previous day's afternoon high. The uppermost blue line marks pivot point resistance from the daily view, so if you are still in the trade beyond the gap fill, this is an ideal exit target.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/pii4.png 15 minute timeframe Technical bounces can be very powerful trading opportunities, however, given the fundamental scenario of missed earnings and lowered guidance in the case of PII, it is unlikely that most traders could have predicted the ultimate outcome. In analysing this trade setup, I tried to put myself in the trade at the time it happened, without the benefit of hindsight. As indicated above, it is very unlikely that I would have pursued the long side of the trade after being stopped out on the second half of my original short. Also notice that there were no real low risk entry opportunities on the 15 minute timeframe leading into the gap fill.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2006 10:01:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper
Friday, October 13, 2006Trade of the Day - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/200/x11.5.pngI couldn't find any good gapper setups this morning so I quickly ran through my usual suspects. After a quick look at X, I realized that I had missed one of my classic bread and butter entries on a three day consolidation breakout. The only thing I could do at that point was wait for a consolidation as the move was well underway and I didn't want to chase it. I took a long entry after a NRB printed on the 15 minute timeframe. Since X was already up a dollar, I kept a close eye on it as I didn't know how much further it could go on a Friday. As soon as I had a dollar gain, I closed my entire position. That was it for me. I don't particularly care for Friday afternoon trading as it is often narrow and choppy. My exit was almost perfectly timed because after tagging $67.00, volume dried up and X had a stair step decline for the balance of the session.
Three day consolidation breakout - After a sizable price rally, the stock consolidates the move in its upper range for three (or more) days, before breaking out again.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/13/2006 07:51:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NRB
Thursday, October 12, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Earnings Season
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/400/comp.9.pngStocks rallied across the board as earnings improved and the Fed beige book provided more evidence that the economy is on track. All tech sectors participated in the rally. Software and MSFT (mega market cap.) had a big hand in today's big move. For a perfect NR7 setup, take a look at MSFT daily chart (below).
So last night's technical picture was off because of earnings. And next week earnings season really kicks in, making the writing of this post a bigger challenge. As indicated here earlier this week, the market is priced to perfection so we need big earnings to keep the bears at bay. For the moment it looks like we are heading higher since we closed at the top of the session. However, GE, another mega market cap, reports BTB and could set the tone for tomorrow's trade.
Tomorrow's economic calendar includes import/export and retail sales BTB, Michigan sentiment at 9:50, and Business inventories at 10:00. Oh, and tomorrow is also Friday the 13th!
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Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 09:27:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Thursday, October 12, 2006Beta Blogger Image Loading Problems
Is there a trick for loading images in the latest version of Blogger? I keep getting blanks with little red Xs in the upper left hand corner?
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Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 08:23:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Blogger
Dummy Trade of the Day - BE Aerospace, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BEAV)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/200/beav.6.pngI got so many hits when I ran my gapper scan, that it took me quite a while to narrow my selection. I finally took a chance on BEAV, but only after it had taken out its OR high following a NRB. I took 50% of my profit after a 1 pt. gain and decided to let the rest go as price came into $24.00 because I noticed that volume was diminishing.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 08:16:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, NRB
Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/aapl.5.png Daily Timframe - Yesterday AAPL carved out a NR7 bar on the daily timeframe on a test of support. My strategy today was a reversal long for AAPL off of the NR7 bar.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/AAPL1.png
AAPL started trading up in pre-market so I placed a buy stop order on a break of the pre-market high. My target was resistance at $75.00. I was filled on the open and I exited my entire position as price rallied up to tag $75.00 shortly past 10:00. Notice the volume on the first three sticks as price moved towards $75.00, followed by a drop in volume as price pulled back and consolidated the move.
NR7 - My definition of NR7 is a NRB with the smallest real body over the last seven sessions. NRB with potential for reversal from support after an orderly pullback or consolidation.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 07:20:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, NRB
Wednesday, October 11, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/400/comp.8.png The NASDAQ gave back 7 points on higher volume in another choppy session as the market has been range bound for almost a week. Despite the pullback exacerbated by the FOMC and the NYC plane crash, semis were strong led by AMD, RMBS, XLNX and LRCX ahead of earnings. LRCX beat estimates by 10 cents and guided higher. It had an early run up to $51.00 in AH, however, it gave it all back to end the AH session just below $48.00.
At the moment it looks like we may be carving out a rounded top which foreshadows a deeper pullback. However, taking it one day at a time, support levels to watch tomorrow are 2288, followed by 2075. On the economic calendar we have Initial Claims and Trade Balance before the open, followed by crude at 10:30 and the Fed Beige book at 2:00.
GENZ reports before the bell.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/11/2006 09:11:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Trade of the Day - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/200/adsk2.1.pngI got a late start following some morning meetings and was just about to put off trading today due to choppy market conditions and the upcoming FOMC minutes, when I came upon this low risk short entry on ADSK. As it turned out all the news in the afternoon was bearish so the trade was able to run its course. The setup was a short following several NRBs curving lower under the weight of the MAs. I covered as price bounced off of support.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/11/2006 07:17:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NRB
Tuesday, October 10, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Meritage Homes Corporation (Public, NYSE:MTH)
Daily timeframe
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/mth1.1.png15 minute timeframe
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/mth.0.png click on charts to enlarge
I ran a gapper scan shortly after 10:00 EST this morning. Most of the names that came out were too far gone so I set them aside as possible pullback plays. MTH was consolidating its gap up. A quick look at the daily view showed that MTH had cleared its pivot point resistance (pivots are marked by pink arrows on the daily timeframe). I took a long position on the 7th 15 minute bar (NR7) which as you can see was very low risk. I set my stop 10 cents below the low of the previous 15 min. bar. Price took off shortly after my entry. I booked 50% of my profit after a 1+ point gain as volume was declining. I sold the balance of my position on weakness in early afternoon.
P.S. - I have personal business to attend to, so this will be my only post today. See you back here tomorrow night. Good trading!
Questions on NR7 - refer to Trader Mike's excellent post on NRB and Range Contraction by
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Posted by Jamie at 10/10/2006 05:12:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper
Monday, October 09, 2006Chart Analysis Request - Citrix Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CTXS)
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Pivot point support at $33.25 (pink segment), followed by the 50 day MA. I'm not seeing a short setup just yet. There's too much support in close proximity.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 10:54:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Technical
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Extension
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Notwithstanding today's holiday and Wednesday's WRB, this last leg up feels like its lacking volume. We had a mid-afternoon selloff just ahead of earnings season. I know that I was overly cautious going into this last bounce but I believe that the NASDAQ is priced to perfection and we will see weakness if earnings don't get off to a strong start. DNA, LRCX, and GENZ are the first stocks of interest reporting Tuesday, Wednesday (AH) and Thursday (BTB) respectively.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 08:12:00 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AKAM)
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The above chart is a 60 minute view of AKAM. Notice how it broke its lower trendline in early trade this morning. I mentioned it as a potential short but was unable to borrow any shares through IB. So I stalked it for a potential bounce or a retest of the broken trendline.
The five minute chart below shows how AKAM breached support at $50.50 but quickly snapped back setting up a long and a quick retest of the broken trendline before continuing its decent. My entry and exit are indicated by the blue (entry) and red (exit) arrows.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/akam2.0.png
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 05:29:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Retest, Technical
Dummy Trade of the Day - U.S. Steel Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:X)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/200/x8.pngX gapped up on the open and after a short period of consolidation, it took out the opening range high. I went long as soon as price took out the OR high - (my avg price $61.65). Volume picked up nicely, propelling the stock up to my target of $64.00. My target of $64.00 was the midway point between resistance ($64.18 from the daily) and the 100% Fibonacci extension from Friday's low. As you can see from the chart, X actually tagged the 1.6 Fibonacci extension at $65.19 (Wow!, how often does that happen?) before coming back in. So my target, which I thought was very optimistic given last week's run, was not quite right.
Chart: 5 minute timeframe
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 04:37:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper
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Monday, October 09, 20063 for 3 with United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)
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I'm 3 for 3 on Us Steel Corp (X). I took a low risk entry on this morning's gap up. I sold into strength at $64.00. This afternoon, I will be watching it for a potential low risk entry on a pullback.
I tried to short AKAM at $51.50 shortly after the open but there were no shares available to short through my broker (IB). The first test of the pre-market low at $50.50 held as support. Since I can't short, I'm looking for a low risk long and a potential short squeeze.
P.S. It's nice to be trading from home for a change.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 10:41:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper
Technical Trade Idea - Acorda Therapeutics Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ACOR)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/acor.1.png Expect to see a pullback in ACOR this morning. Friday afternoon, it carved out a lower high on the intraday chart as we can see from the 15 minute timeframe above. This morning the boutique firm Rodman and Renshaw has downgraded ACOR from Outperform to Market Perform based on valuation. Look for a possible long entry as price lifts from one of the support levels (horizontal blue lines), ideally in tandem with support of the trendline.
Thanks bringing this stock to my attention.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 07:27:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Technical
Technical Trade Idea - Cisco Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSCO)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/400/csco.5.png
Click on chart to enlarge - Timeframe - monthly
After carving out a multi-year base, CSCO is currently testing resistance at $24.13, dating back to May 2001. A successful break could see price run up to $29.37 resistance (Jan. 2004).
Here is an excerpt of Barron's coverage this weekend.
Barron's reports as sales and profits for Cisco (CSCO) begin to flow from new customers and new markets, like Internet video, Wall Street is likely to raise its price targets. A number of analysts think shares could easily tack on another 15%....To beguile enterprise customers with the virtues of video, Cisco soon will unveil a sophisticated high-def video-conferencing system. Companies such as Polycom (PLCM), Radvision (RVSN) and Norway's Tandberg have been selling videoconferencing products for years, but Cisco could quickly become the market leader. Cisco will roll out this telepresence product to is 70 sales offices next year, and estimates that it will break even on the investment in less than nine months. It expects to save an annualized $100 mln in travel expenses by year-end 2007. Cisco also is seeing growth of nearly 50% a year in its sale of networking systems in emerging markets like Saudi Arabia. That growth results from sales investments Cisco made in the past couple of years, just as it had done previously in India and China.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 06:18:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Technical
Friday, October 06, 2006Trade of the Day - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/200/x4.png After pulling back into pivot point support and consolidating, X was ripe for a reversal and a test of yesterday's high. I waited for a NRB and entered long on the next continuation bar. My target was yesterday's high. The target was reached about 45 minutes later.
After studying many gapper charts, I noticed that often times we can get a good trade on the day following the gap up. I look for the stock to pull back to support on the open and then reverse for a retest of the previous day's highs.
Chart: 10 minute timeframe
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Posted by Jamie at 10/06/2006 10:15:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Retest
Dummy Trade of the Day - Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3286/2406/320/joyg12.0.png I couldn't resist this low risk dummy entry in JOYG midday. After recovering from the morning swoon, JOYG started consolidating through a series of narrow, tight candles in a shallow base. It had the support of all of its MAs so I took the dummy entry. At one point it took out yesterday's high, but that was a head fake, so I took my exit on the first lower high.
Chart: 10 minute timeframe
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Posted by Jamie at 10/06/2006 08:37:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy
Thursday, October 05, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Choppy Extension of Yesterday's Rally
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We had a choppy extension of yesterday's rally as the NASDAQ flirted with 2300 for most of the session before taking it out in late afternoon. We only surpassed resistance by 6 points, so it's by no means solid at this point. Biotechs pushed us over the top while the SOX tried to pull us down. Small caps were very bullish today, still the NASDAQ outperformed both the SPX and INDU. Tomorrow's jobs data (8:30 EST) could be a strong factor in market direction.
Good Trading and Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my fellow Canadian traders!
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Posted by Jamie at 10/05/2006 09:12:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Trade of the Day - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/x.0.pngI don't have taken this trade but it has his name written all over it, no pun intended ;) My trading plan today was high volume gappers because my usual suspects were extended after yesterday's huge surge. At 10:04 I ran a gapper scan through my real time stockcharts.com scanner. It spit out about 20 names which I quickly sorted through on a 15 minute timeframe. I picked the last one because it had an orderly price pattern and high volume (essential on a gapper setup).
The first stick was wide range with no shadows. The second candle had a fairly long upper wick but the third candle had a smaller upper wick and volume was still strong. My risk was 20 cents so I took the low risk entry on the fourth bar as price was crossing $58.00. I stayed in the trade until price came back in from the last breakout point of the day (blue line). There was never any reason to exit my position before that because price did not breach the rising 10 period EMA and the ascent was steady and orderly. Sweet!
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Posted by Jamie at 10/05/2006 07:43:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper
Wednesday, October 04, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Stocks Surge On Bernanke Remarks
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/comp.0.png Stocks surged midday after Ben Bernanke made some encouraging remarks regarding interest rates and the need to refrain from further increases. However, the NASDAQ was already off to good start in the morning, but the Bernanke remarks gave it enough traction to easily take out recent highs. All major tech sectors participated in today's rally. NVDA and RIMM were the big NDX gainers. The losers encompassed satellite radio and BRCM and MRVL. Next levels of resistance are 2300, followed by 2325.
On the economic calendar we have Initial Claims tomorrow at 8:30. According to the PF chart below, today marks a triple top breakout for the NASDAQ, with a target of 2390. The McClellan oscillator down below, surprisingly reads that we are neutral with respect to overbought (oversold) conditions. So rally on!
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Posted by Jamie at 10/04/2006 09:29:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/NVDA3.0.png I noticed that NVDA was moving up on good volume off of the open. As soon as I saw a little continuation after the gap fill, I entered long. My stop was 10 cents below the breakout point (lower blue line). I locked in 50% as it consolidated its early gains. I rentered my full share size midday on a low risk entry and the support of the rising 10 period MA just below. I exited my position into the close. Sweet!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/DRIV4.png DRIV was a technical setup (bullish flag as outlined last night) which I entered on a buy stop order. Here is an example where I had to leave my stop at break-even because of a lengthy and deep pullback mid-day. I eventually got frustrated and exited 50% of the position after just $0.40. My target was finally reached near the end of the session. Exit into the close.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/04/2006 09:01:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Later Postings Tonight
A great day for the bulls!
Long DRIV and NVDA.
My regular updates will be a little late tonight as I am going out with friends.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/04/2006 05:14:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Tuesday, October 03, 2006Technical Trade Ideas - Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ:DRIV)
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 09:57:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of 2225 Support
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The NASDAQ gapped down on the open, quickly hit 2225 support, and managed to rally until midday. All tech sectors participated led by internets and networking, but the SOX couldn't even manage a gap fill. The Nasdaq did not carve out a reversal bar so we don't really have any direction for tomorrow, however, based on how we finished, I'm guessing that we either consolidate some more, or creep up a little higher. I expect that we will manage a lower high before the selling resumes. So with that in mind, I will start taking profits if the NASDAQ approaches the 2257-2260 area. Tomorrow's economic indicators are Factory Orders and ISM at 10:00 and crude inventories at 10:30.
Meanwhile, the DOW finally hit its overrated milestone and closed at a new all time closing high.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 08:24:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - The Andersons, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ANDE)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ANDE1.png As per last night's watch list, ANDE fell out of its bearish flag on the open by way of a gap down. Because it is not very liquid, it was a bit of a struggle to get in. I had an overall target of $30.00 but I knew it would find some midday support at last week's low around $31.50 so I covered 50% of my position as price fell into that price area. I was a little disappointed with the depth of the bounce and actually had to move my stop back to break-even. I managed to hold on and cover the balance into the close.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/hans2.png I was hoping we could regain the 50 period MA and close above $32.00 when I took this long entry on HANS. However, it just didn't have any traction and couldn't score more than a tag so I let it go at $31.50.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 07:34:00 PM 7 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
AKAM Target Raised - Jefferies raises their 2007 ests and tgt on AKAM to $59 from $47, saying the co is a clear beneficiary of an unprecedented level of demand for content distribution services. Firm says the co has no direct competition and execution has been solid, and several upcoming Windows releases could produce upside in the short- to medium-term.
CPU Shortage - Digitimes reports unexpectedly strong demand in the notebook market has resulted in CPU shortages, sending notebook makers scrambling to secure CPU supply for the fourth-quarter high season, according to industry sources. Some notebook makers have described the gravity of the shortages by saying they may have to "beg" daily for CPU supply, the sources claimed. A weak notebook market in the first half of this year caused notebook makers and CPU suppliers Intel (INTC) and AMD to take a cautious approach for the fourth quarter, the sources explained. But demand is picking up unexpectedly fast, tightening CPU supply, the sources added. Intel products that are currently in short supply include some in the Core 2 Duo (Merom) series, some in the Celeron M line, and the Yonah T2250 and T2050, the sources revealed.
MRVL Update - FBR notes yesterday after the bell, MRVL negatively preannounced its F3Q(Oct)07 quarter. The main culprit appears to be inventory, particularly in the hard drive space, due to the PC slowdown that started in 1H, and exacerbated by the STX / MXO merger. Net, firm says not a big surprise, although it is notable that the co chose to throw in the towel with still a month to go in the quarter. Firm says the comment in MRVL's release which leaves them with concern is the co's view that hard drive shipments are weaker than seasonal in the quarter. Firm says it appears that MRVL is blaming the miss at least in part on weaker hard drive sell through in F3Q, which would be a point of concern since the semiconductor build for PC appears to have been seasonally normal thus far. Firm says given all of the hard drive specific issues going on right now, they are hesitant to use hard drive weakness to make a negative call on PC sell through, however. Firm cuts their tgt to $19 from $23 on lower ests... BWS Financial notes the news of the restatement has a more significant impact on the shares of MRVL since MRVL is already late in filing their second quarter 10-Q. Firm says restatement of financials from 2000 on could present a challenge for the co in meeting NASDAQ listing requirements before the shares are delisted. Firm believes this poses as a short-term overhang on MRVL shares that is likely to prevent the shares from making much of an advance. Firm is reducing their ests accordingly, but believe that the slowdown in the hard disk industry is only temporarily, as demand for personal computers is expected to increase with the release of Windows Vista and new processors from Intel (INTC)... Thomas Weisel notes HDD is the cause of near-term woes for MRVL. Firm believes this is because of WDC and notebook customers. Firm notes co is expecting higher G&A costs because of the stock option review. Firm lowers Q3 ests to $515 mln and $0.13 from $582 mln and $0.19. For Y07, est go to $2.19 bln and $0.74 from $2.28 bln and $0.82. Firm believes the excess inventory situation may be short term in nature and expects a resumption of growth in F4Q07.
BRCM - Co announces that a federal judge today ruled that Qualcomm (QCOM 34.66) was not entitled to the injunction it requested. The judge characterized Qualcomm's requested relief as "light years beyond" what would be appropriate. Broadcom also announced two new initiatives in its legal fight against QCOM regarding cell phone technology.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 07:51:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, October 02, 2006Technical Trade Ideas - ANDE, HANS, JOYG
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/joyg.4.png Click on charts to enlarge.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 10:18:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Take Over
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/naz.4.png The NASDAQ opened weak on an AAPL downgrade and the QCOM/BRCM patent battle. A small rally mid-morning just set things up for a bigger slide in the afternoon. So the bears have stepped in and it remains to be seen how deep this pullback will be. MRVL is out AH warning on Q3 revenues which are expected to be down 10% from Q2. They also noted that FS will have to restated due to stock options. BRCM is down about 1 pt. in sympathy with MRVL. So I'm expecting more selling tomorrow morning.
We carved out a wide range bearish candlestick and closed below the rising 10 day EMA. Our next level of support is 2225, roughly in line with the rising 20 day EMA.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 07:47:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - QUALCOMM, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:QCOM)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/qcom.png As indicated last night, I shorted the QQQQ's at $40.50 and I'm swinging 50% of my position into tomorrow. But the trade of the day was a short on QCOM which fell out of its narrow trading range (daily view) in early action (another patent battle in the wireless sector QCOM vs. BRCM). I waited to see how it consolidated at the 10:00 reversal time and shorted when it took out support at $35.49. I covered after a 1 pt. gain in mid-afternoon.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 07:27:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
AAPL currently trading at $75.10 from a close of $76.98 due to a downgrade.
Citigroup downgrades Apple (AAPL
76.98) to Hold from Buy based on valuation and saying recent checks suggest that Apple is unlikely to introduce a new video iPod before the holiday season...
Also noted in Barron's this weekend:
Barron's reports there is still room for Apple (AAPL) shares to run up a bit more before Christmas. While they won't know for certain until quarterly results are posted on Oct. 18, it looks like late-summer computer sales were very solid, says hardware analyst Charlie Wolf of Needham & Co. "Based on what I've been hearing, my estimate of Mac shipments is most likely low for September," Wolf tells Barron's. That forecast called for 1.5 mln Macs to be sold in the September quarter, versus 1.2 mln in the corresponding 2005 period. Their bullish call was based largely on the promise of robust sales for revamped Macintosh desktops and notebooks, which have been priced more competitively than ever and now can easily run Windows, as well as Apple's own operating systems, owing to the co's pragmatic switch to Intel (INTC) processors. Wolf's thesis is that the ability to directly use Windows will boost the switch rate to Macs from Windows-based PCs. Previously, he had assumed that the switch rate wouldn't jump until the new Leopard operating system (OS 10.5) was shipped, together with a commercial version of Boot Camp (the software that allows Windows to run on non-Intel-powered Macs), which now seems unlikely until 1H07. However, "Apple has already begun to market the Mac's dual-operating-system capability, even though Boot Camp is still in beta tests," says Wolf, who has a target price of 90 on the stock. Mac sales -- especially of notebooks used by students -- appear to have been robust in the quarter ended in September. Apple promoted MacBook sales by throwing free iPods into the deal. Ironically, the recent success of the MacBook probably has more to do with the price cuts and the machines' appealing design than with the ability to run Windows. Once Boot Camp arrives, however, Mac sales will gain even more momentum, Wolf asserts. (courtesey of Briefing.com)
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 07:54:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, October 01, 2006Equifax Inc. (Public, NYSE:EFX)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/efx.pngAfter gapping up on Sept. 8th and carving out a wide range bullish stick, EFX has consolidated its gain in the upper half of that day's trading range. After tagging the rising 10 day EMA on the 22nd, it has formed a series of higher lows hugging the MA as it continues to rise. Resistance is $37.12. Long on a high volume break of resistance with a preliminary target of $38.50. This setup may take a few more days to develop.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/01/2006 11:07:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Engulfing Pattern
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/naz.3.pngFriday's action was long overdue. This rally needs to consolidate before earnings season starts. The NASDAQ carved out a bearish engulfing pattern after edging up higher earlier in the week. The session opened with some profit taking, consolidated midday, and the selling resumed in the afternoon and into the close. The SOX paced the way down, followed by networking. Hardware (RIMM) gained 7.5 points or 2.14% on the session, almost all of which transpired in the pre-market. The NDX winners were RIMM and NIHD, both of which gapped up on the open but closed at or near their lows for the day (bearish sign).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/NAZ%20w.pngThe weekly timeframe of the NASDAQ shows that we have rallied back to the broken trendline, however, we have yet to recapture it. In my mind, this will require further momentum propelled by a strong earnings season. A closing target of 2290-2300 would bring us back above the trendline from our current threshold at 2258.
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The QQQQ 60 minute timeframe is signaling a pullback. Rounded tops are bearish because they imply an over supply. A potential short trade is setting up on a high volume break of $40.50 (preliminary target $39.75 - $39.50)
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Posted by Jamie at 10/01/2006 08:27:00 AM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Thursday, September 28, 2006Watch List - AAPL, BRCM, ENER, FFIV
Bullish Setups
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ffiv.8.png Click on charts to enlarge.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/28/2006 11:45:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Trading
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/naz.2.png Another NR day as Wall Street waits for a catalyst to push the DOW 30 to its milestone high. Meanwhile the NASDAQ carved out a hammer type bar which could turn into a hanging man. Well, that was my best scenario until I saw RIMM's earnings and guidance after the close. RIMM is testing all time highs in after hours trading at $103.00. PALM is also up in sympathy. So the wireless sector will be hot tomorrow. The SOX snapped back today and we have some potential breakouts lining up again in the semi sector.
The NDX winners today were EBAY, AKAM (another multi-year high) and BRCM (poised for a 3 day consolidation breakout). The losers were QCOM, CHKP and ATVI. I'm still cautious hoping that the achievement of the much anticipated and overrated milestone does not signal a massive selloff.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/28/2006 08:34:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENER)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/ener1.png Both of last night's watch list picks were invalidated by analyst interference: AMD was downgraded by ThinkEquity to sell from buy and upgraded by Caris to Above Average from Avg.; AMGN was initiated as Underperform by Credit Suisse and FBR was concerned about negative headwinds. Both stocks gapped down too much, thus invalidating my setups.
With no other plan in mind, I decided to look for a good gapper play. ENER was up on good volume in the pre-market on news of an Intel deal. I placed an out of the money order just above $35.00 in pre-market, but unfortunately it was too low and did not get filled. It posted a red candle in the opening range, so I decided to wait for a better setup. In the meantime, I ran some scans, but ENER clearly had the type of volume I look for on a gap up play. I waited for a low risk setup which finally came after lunch. It tagged the rising 10 period EMA carving out a NR doji. As soon as price took out the high of the doji, I went long. I booked 50% of my profit as price approached resistance. ENER consolidated for close to an hour before spiking higher into the finish. Having closed above resistance on the daily timeframe, I'm optimistic for some further upside and will be watching ENER closely.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/28/2006 07:40:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, September 27, 2006Watch List - AMD, AMGN
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Posted by Jamie at 9/27/2006 11:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - The Hype is Overdone
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/naz.1.png After all the hype on CNBC, this session was doomed to fail. (I agreeCNBC hype is misguided). And thus, we had a very choppy morning followed by profit taking in the afternoon. The tech sectors were mixed with the SOX down and biotechs up. The daily chart of SOX appears to be carving out a lower high and the biotechs ($NBI) are now poised to breakout. We might see a little sector rotation going into October. Let's face it, we've had a nice run off of the July lows and now its time to pullback and digest.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/27/2006 08:40:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: (AAPL)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/aapl.2.png All the hype on CNBC this morning was making me nauseous so as soon as the durable orders came in surprisingly low, I decided to take a short position. I had to go with AAPL because of liquidity at that hour of pre-market. My stop was the pre-market high which was 50 cents away (ouch), so I was praying as I clicked my mouse on the entry. Except for some choppiness on the open, the trade went according to plan and paid off nicely, coming within pennies of my $76.00 target. High Risk and only recommended for people who are tired of hearing that "bad news is good news".
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Posted by Jamie at 9/27/2006 08:08:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, September 26, 2006No Watch List Tonight
I'll be looking at possible gapper plays tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2006 11:14:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Hansen Natural Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:HANS)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/hans.pngChart Analysis Request - Is HANS a swing short candidate?
After rallying from recent lows, HANS is consolidating its gains and trying to reclaim its 50MA. If it succeeds, it could attempt a gap fill in the $40.00 area. I wouldn't short unless it it broke the trading range to the downside (below $32.50) on high volume. Support at $32.50, $30.00 and $27.50.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2006 10:50:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Test of Resistance
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/naz.0.png The NASDAQ tested last week's high on stronger volume, but for some reason I'm not feeling bullish. You can't fight the tape, but it doesn't feel like we can move much higher, without some sort of pullback. The SOX and software consolidated today leaving the field open for internets to take a leadership role. JOYG, EBAY and ATVI were the big NDX winners today. ADSK, and BEAS along with a bevy of semis - BRCM, MRVL, NVDA, MXIM - were the day's big NDX losers. I'm cautious going forward but if the D+ line crosses the ADX line we could get another break higher.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2006 09:42:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Tuesday, September 26, 2006Trade of the Day - Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/joyg.0.png Goodbye EXP, Hello JOYG!
It's not unusual for a stock to retest its breakout point after a significant break. JOYG opened strong and consolidated its early move midday, forming a small triangle pattern. I was cautious and waited for confirmation before going long, but there was a noticeable uptick in volume as the break occurred. I closed the position as price rallied in for a retest of last week's breakout point.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2006 08:14:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Missed Opportunity - Eagle Materials, Inc. (Public, NYSE:EXP)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/exp5.png As per last night's watch list, I thought that I had a great long setup when I was able to pick up EXP as it climbed towards resistance after a weak open. After wasting over an hour with it, it failed and I took my exit with a minor gain. I was disappointed and decided to move on to greener pastures so to speak. I thought that EXP's failure was due to poor market conditions. Little did I know that it was about to go into a free fall and that the company would warn on upcoming earnings later in the session, after all, the Chairman had just recently disclosed the purchase of 400k shares...????
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2006 07:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, September 25, 2006Watch List - Semis and Software
SEMIS
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/sox.4.png The breakout candidates in the semi sector are very well
I'll just add that last week it was hard to find more than a few nice charts in the sector and now its hard to find more than a handful of bad ones. In addition to the breakout candidates, I also like CREE and NVDA.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/cree.0.png SOFTWARE
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/gso.png Software has broken multi-year resistance.
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ADBE has the best looking chart in the software group.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ctxs.18.png CTXS looks well positioned to break resistance and head towards $38.00, followed by $40.00.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/orcl.png This is a weekly chart of ORCL which is breaking out of a multi-year base. Near-term target is $20.00.
This has nothing to do with semis or software, but I'm also planning to go long EXP on a high volume breakout:
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2006 10:25:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Tech Outperforms Again
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nazw.0.png The NASDAQ gapped up on the open and fading was the only way to go. I saw lots of black candles on my opening range stockcharts.com which almost always favors the short side. We retested Friday's lows and then pivoted into a huge rally. As I mentioned on the weekend in this post, the SOX was easing into its trendline, so it shouldn't have been such a surprise to me that we rallied. The NASDAQ clearly outperformed the other markets again. Check out the NDX 100 heatmap - a few of this blog's favorites are in the top 10 (AKAM, AAPL, and NVDA). Will we get follow through tomorrow? I still favor a pullback but we closed near the highs and volume was up.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2006 08:23:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Eagle Materials, Inc. (Public, NYSE:EXP)
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As per last night's watch list, long EXP on a channel break as well as a break of Friday's late day, narrow trading range. I sold the position as price came in to test last Wednesday's high.
SNDK gapped down on a Merrill downgrade so I didn't chase it. I shorted JOYG shortly after the open. I booked 50% of my profit after a 1 point gain and was stopped out on the balance. Here is the chart.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2006 07:31:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
CIBC upgrades Lam Research (LRCX 41.36) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer with a $52 tgt, as channel checks suggest near-term upside to Street as shipments continue to ramp to set record levels in Mar '07 on share gains at Taiwan DRAM makers and commercial traction in new wet clean business with a repeat order from TSMC.
Merrill Lynch downgrades SanDisk (SNDK 55.38) to Neutral from Buy
ThinkEquity raises Apple (AAPL 73.00) tgt to $100 from $90, based on the following catalysts: Additional accelerated back-to-school CPU share gains, retail Store traffic and Beyond-the-Box unit shipment momentum through springtime, software-related revenue and earnings upside surprises in 1H07 and a move into the enterprise in 2H07
ThinkEquity recommends taking profits in semi stocks, citing a looming inventory correction. Firm says that during their quarterly tour of Asian electronics supply chain participants, they have found a preponderance of pessimism and lack of any recovery.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2006 07:58:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Watch List - Eagle Materials, Inc. (Public, NYSE:EXP)
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/exp2.png EXP soared Wednesday on disclosure that the CEO had recently purchased 400k shares. It has since retraced 50% of that move. I'm going to buy EXP on a high volume break of the down trend channel on the 30 minute timeframe. My near-term target is $47.50.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2006 12:36:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Review of this Week's Long s - NVDA and NDAQ
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nvda.11.png NVDA's ADX and RSI are signaling weakness, however, it is still holding its breakout point and its trendline. So we can't short it until we get an actual break.
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ndaq2.png NDAQ has retraced 62% of its last leg up and in so doing successfully retested its breakout point. Long on a break of $31.25
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2006 12:06:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, September 24, 2006Review of this Week's Short Trades - JOYG and SNDK
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/joyg.3.png JOYG is consolidating its losses in the lower end of Thursday's WRB which bodes well for the bears. Short again on a break of Thursday's low. This could take another day or two.
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/sndk3.png We don't want to touch SNDK while it consolidates last week's loss. We want to wait until it breaks the narrow trading range $56-$55.25 to the downside. Our preliminary target is $54, followed by $52.50.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/24/2006 07:00:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Saturday, September 23, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Breach of 200 MA
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/naz.pngThe NASDAQ breached its 200 MA on a closing basis Friday by three points. The next level of support is 2200. The SOX which has lead the way down this week, is coming into its trendline and looks to be easing up somewhat on the selling. The GSO (software index) broke through a multi-year resistance level on Wednesday (ORCL) and appears to be coming back in for a retest. Friday's big NDX loser was SNDK, down 4%. Other semis that gave back on Friday were NVDA (profit taking) and MRVL (slipping back into the gutter).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/23/2006 06:23:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Friday, September 22, 2006Trade of the Day - SanDisk Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:SNDK)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/sndk2.png As per last night's watch list, both FLSH and SNDK took a tumble on the open. The move happened so fast, it was hard to get in. I switched over to the five minute timeframe to get a better picture of how SNDK was consolidating its gap down and I was able to establish a fairly low risk trading range shortly after the open. The stock consolidated for about twenty minutes before crashing again. The move was swift and on very high volume. I thought that it had capitulated so I covered my entire position right away. The rest of the session was extremely narrow range and both stocks closed near their lows. I only managed the one trade as it would have been too hard to try to get in both at the same time. If you compare both charts side by side, you will notice that they traded like twins.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/22/2006 08:19:00 PM 11 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, September 21, 2006Watch List - SNDK, FLSH
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http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/flsh.3.png Same bearish setup for both FLSH and SNDK - double rounded tops with negative divergence of the RSI. The second rounded tops on both charts made higher highs than the first, however, the second tops are wider and indicate that there is far too much supply at these lofty prices. These types of patterns generally have deep pullbacks.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/21/2006 10:33:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Engulfing Pattern
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.7.png Around noon, the NASDAQ tested its opening range high, but failed to take it out. What followed was a very orderly pullback with very little bounce into the close. Expect more profit taking because this pullback is overdue. Our first area of support is the 200MA and this may hold into the close tomorrow, but will undoubtedly be taken out next week. Today's action resulted in a bearish engulfing pattern, usually a strong reversal signal particularly when positioned at the top of a multi-wave move. The SOX is leading the way down but all tech sectors participated in the afternoon profit taking.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/21/2006 08:38:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/joyg1.pngAs per last night's watch list, I shorted JOYG on a break of yesterday's low. I covered 50% of my position at $34.00 and held the balance until the close. I risked 60 cents and my average reward was $1.20 for an R of 2. The afternoon swoon was especially nice as there was no overlap of the real bodies of the candlesticks making it much easier to manage than the morning session. I thought I was going to get stopped out around noon because I had moved my stop to 10 cents above breakeven. Luckily, I wasn't taken out!
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Posted by Jamie at 9/21/2006 07:41:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, September 20, 2006Watch List - QCOM, JOYG
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/qcom.0.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/joyg.2.png Click on charts to enlarge.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/20/2006 09:13:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Getting Cocky
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.6.png
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Getting Cocky
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.6.png The market gapped up about 15 points on ORCL's stellar earnings and guidance report. From there it managed to add another 15 points in a somewhat choppy session given the Fed policy statement in mid-afternoon. The software sector was the easy winner on the session and the SOX was a bit of a disappointment. However, all major tech sectors participated in today's rally. The NDX leaders were all software names - ORCL, BEAS, CTXS and the loser was JOYG which breached support into the close setting up a nice short trade going into tomorrow.
The weekly timeframe (below) shows that we are trading into a former conjestion area. I still feel we need to consolidate or pullback in order to properly digest this recent swift ascent.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nazw.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/20/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ (NVDA)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/nvda.1.png A general lack of good setups in the morning kept me out of the market until after Fed speak. Around 2:30, I spotted a low risk setup on the NVDA chart and went long. My exit was into the close for a $0.45 gain.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/20/2006 07:57:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, September 19, 2006Watch List - NIHD, NDAQ, NVDA, AKAM
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nihd.1.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ndaq.1.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nvda.10.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.10.png
Click on charts to enlargeOther recent watch list names that are still in play - AMGN and GILD are still hugging breakout resistance. FFIV is still making its way back to the broken trendline and remains a potential short candidate.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/19/2006 11:20:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Markets Sell Off on YAHOO's Warning
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.5.png
The NASDAQ had a very strong recovery off of the midday lows which is a good sign for the bulls. The selloff was in reaction to YHOO's earnings warnings, more specifically they said that earnings are expected to come in at the lower end of the guidance range. Within 30 minutes or so, YHOO had lost virtually all of the gains it had made since the mid-July low (a stark reminder of the pain of the aftermath of the internet bubble). However, the NASDAQ which shed more than 30 points intraday, managed a respectable close with a loss of just 13 points.
The markets are volatile and managing risk is very important. Tomorrow's economic data include oil inventories at 10:30 and the FOMC policy statement at 2:15.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/19/2006 09:18:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - CheckFree Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CKFR)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/ckfr3.png A late start to my trading day, kept me from trading all morning as the free fall was well underway by the time I got to my desk. When CKFR finally appeared to find a temporary bottom, I started looking for a long entry point. I keyed off of a higher low and I was able to hang in until the end of the session. My initial risk was 20 cents and my reward was $0.94 (R 4.7). This was my only trade on the day.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/19/2006 08:02:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Monday, September 18, 2006Watch List - CKFR, FFIV
CKFR
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ckfr.6.png CKFR broke its trendline on the 60 minute timeframe and setup a very orderly short trade today. From the daily view you can see that it is poised to retest its breakout point on this leg down. It should bounce off of the 50 MA on the 60 minute timeframe tomorrow. Ideally, we want to short CKFR if it makes a tradable lower high. The target is $38.00.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ckfr2.1.png
FFIV http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ffiv.7.png FFIV was a great short as it fell through its trendline on the 60 minute timeframe. It now looks poised to bounce back for a retest of the break. If it bounces in the early going tomorrow, look for a low risk shorting opportunity just below the trendline. The preliminary target is $48.00.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ffiv.1.png
I watch lists are funny. Try not to kill yourself laughing! ;)
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Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2006 10:59:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Tweezer Top
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.3.png Today's high of 2247 matches Friday's high resulting in a bearish tweezer top reversal pattern in candlestick terms for the NASDAQ. Today's close was pretty much a match as well so on the day we did basically nothing. I'm noticing a lot of reversal patterns setting up on individual stocks as well. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes PPI and housing starts at 8:30, both of which could set the tone for tomorrow's trading.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2006 08:35:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NDAQ)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ndaq1.png As per last night's watch list, NDAQ presented a low risk entry as price took out the OR high after consolidating in a narrow range for an hour and half. I kept moving my stop just below the low of the previous bar on the 15 minute timeframe until I was stopped out. I risked 0.20 cents and my reward was $1.17. In R terms that is 5.85.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/nvda.1.png NVDA was my only other trade. I took this trade because the entry off of a very NR bar offered so little risk that I couldn't resist. However, this trade was not as smooth as the NDAQ trade because at this level NVDA is very toppy. I did not raise my stop until well into the trade because NVDA did a lot of backing and filling in the early going. My initial risk was 10 cents and my reward was $0.65.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2006 07:53:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, September 17, 2006Watch List - GILD, AMGN, NDAQ, JOYG
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/gild.1.png As the NASDAQ consolidates its recent gains, I'm looking for some sector rotation within technology and I leaning towards biotechs on the long side. GILD and AMGN look like solid breakout candidates if this scenario plays out.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/amgn.2.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ndaq.0.png NDAQ may be able to break resistance on the third test.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/joyg.1.png JOYG should succumb to pressure and break on the fourth test of support.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2006 08:33:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Short-term Over Extended
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.2.png The NASDAQ is over extended short-term as indicated by Friday's black candlestick. The black candle forms when we gap up and close lower than the open. This is usually a signal that the market is exhausted and needs to consolidate or pullback. Last week the NASDAQ gained 5.6% on five successive days higher. The slope of last week's action is very steep and cannot be sustained.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2006 07:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, September 14, 2006Watch List - NVDA, RIMM
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nvda.9.png Beware the the signals of waning momentum creeping into NVDA's indicators as price challenges resistance.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/rimm.11.png A late session volume spike moves RIMM's price above resistance.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/14/2006 11:31:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Consolidation Day
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.1.png A consolidation day for the NASDAQ ahead of options expiration. Expect more of the same for tomorrow with more in the way of choppiness thrown in the mix. Most major tech sectors, except biotechs and drugs, still managed to come out ahead on the day. The RSI on the above chart is hinting of a consolidation or pullback at this level. Tomorrow's economic reports include Core CPI and CPI at 8:30 and Mich. sentiment at 9:50. The CPI number could be important ahead of next week's FOMC.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/14/2006 11:00:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - CheckFree Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CKFR)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/ckfr.2.png One of the strongest stocks on my short list of favorites lately is CKFR. It took out resistance again today around noon on a visible uptick in volume. I exited 50% of the trade after 1 pt. and closed the balance shortly thereafter on weakness.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/14/2006 10:14:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, September 13, 2006Gunman Attacks Students at Local College
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/gunman-montreal-college.jpg
I took the afternoon off when I became aware of the horror taking place just down the street from where live (I was trading from home yesterday and today as I've been under the weather). A gunman stormed Dawson college and shot students randomly. There were 20 students injured and one female student killed. Police shot and killed the gunman. As you can well imagine, our neighborhood is devastated by this event. I've been on the phone for the past several hours confirming that all of my family and friends are safe. Click here for news details.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/13/2006 08:51:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Scapling Day - CTSH, NIHD
Today was a scalping day for me because with two very good trading days behind me, I didn't want to risk giving too much back. With the NASDAQ just 8 points away from the 200 MA going into the session, I surmised that we might have a NR day.
My trading rules for scalping are quite simple:
1. Don't trade the open.
2. Trade from 5 minute charts - stay in the trade until I get stopped out on a lower low ( trail a stop 2 pennies below the low of the previous 5 minute bar) or until the target is reached or a wide range bar (move stop up to 50% of the WRB)
3. If the scalp is very successful, book 50% of my profit after 1 pt.
4. Setups are either a break from a narrow consolidation range or a low risk entry on a shallow base.
Here are my scalps:
The first scalp came to me via the goodwas a little hesitant about taking this trade because of yesterday's WRB on the daily CTSH view. I didn't risk too much money going into the trade. The shallow base was yesterday afternoon.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ctsh.png The next scalp was a big winner - NIHD on a break of a narrow consolidation range:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/nihd.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/13/2006 04:43:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Tuesday, September 12, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - WRB on Higher Volume
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/compq.1.png
There are no stock charts at stockcharts.com right now, so I'm using Esignal even though the volume doesn't show up on my chart. Today was a wide range session on higher than average volume. I think we had a combination short squeeze/institutional buying at play today. The shorts got squeeezed when we took out last week's high and many of my intraday semi charts went parabolic in the afternoon. All tech sectors ended the session in the green paced by semis and networking. The 200 MA is just 8 points away so tomorrow could be the big test.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2006 07:19:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - New Century Financial Corporation (REIT) (Public, NYSE:NEW)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/new5.png As per last night's watch list, I went long NEW on a break of resistance. I booked 50% of my profit as NEW approached my $40.00 target and I sold the balance into the close.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/brcm.7.png BRCM was a gap up play and a low risk entry. Notice that yesterday's high was just pennies under the OR low, so I felt comfortable in my long entry on the second 15 minute bar. BRCM had a lengthy consolidation before making its big move in the afternoon, but it was worth the wait. Exit into the close.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/cymi1.png CYMI was a long on a consolidation range breakout. Exit into the close.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/akam.5.png From best trade yesterday, AKAM came full circle today as my worst trade. Long on the break of the pre-market high and stopped out a few minutes later on a break of the pre-market low. I tried to short it in the afternoon but there were no shares available from my broker. I'm taking note of this now because if AKAM consolidates in the upper range of its last leg up, we could get a nice short squeeze on the next breakout.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2006 04:40:00 PM 7 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
RIMM gapping up - Amtech raises target to $120.
BOOM gapping up after yesterday's slide on the announcement of a new contract valued at $8.7 mln.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2006 09:13:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Watch List - JOYG, NEW, FLSH
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/joyg.0.png After retesting its gap, we may get a bounce from JOYG. High risk, so it's best to wait for a reversal signal.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/new.3.png I posted NEW to the watch list last week and it didn't do anything, but now I think it's ready to make a play for $40.00.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/flsh.2.png FLSH is a classic dumpling top followed by a gap fill resulting in a lower high. Price immediately backed off after the gap was filled. Short with a preliminay target at $40.00.
We may get some follow through on the AKAM trade on the open, but plan to take profits at the 10:00-10:15 reversal hour.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2006 04:34:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Midday Rally
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nasdaq.png
I'm still favoring a lower high and a deeper pullback to gap support. The NASDAQ opened weak today and then staged a midday rally led by the SOX (MXIM, MCHP, and NVDA). However, we are still lacking in volume and momentum feels like it is fading. It's a stock pickers market for the time being.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2006 04:05:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, September 11, 2006Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/akam.1.png As per yesterday's watch list, I placed a buy limit order for AKAM at $40.55 before leaving for work. Unfortunately, I did not get hit as price bottomed at $40.60, so I had to chase a bit. I sold 50% after a 1+ pt. gain. AKAM could not take out resistance on the first intraday attempt, but after pulling back to support around $41.00, it consolidated for an hour or so and then started to move back up so I re-entered my full share size and exited into the close.
Today was my best day so far this month. I traded all of yesterday's watch list names (CKFR long; CTXS long and BOOM short). CKFR was a long on a break of Friday's high. I sold the entire position at $40.00 and change, as this stock was getting far too extended given last week's big gains. I tried to buy CTXS on a gap fill but it didn't quite manage to close the gap so I took an entry on a break of the pre-market high. BOOM gapped down on the open on high volume confirming my bull trap theory so I managed to get in on the 3rd 15 minute bar as it made a feeble attempt to rally. I exited the entire position after a 1 pt. gain.
Here are the charts:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/ckfr2.0.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/ctxs1.0.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/boom4.png
Click on charts to enlarge
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Posted by Jamie at 9/11/2006 05:37:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Saturday, September 09, 2006Watch List - AKAM, BOOM, CKFR, CTXS
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.9.pngFriday's morning star pattern has neutralized the evening star from earlier in the week. Now it looks like AKAM is poised to retest $42.00 resistance for the third time. If it succeeds we should see a lot more upside to come.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/boom.0.pngBOOM broke out of its consolidation pattern and has now come back to retest the breakout point. I'm not sure if the breakout was a bull trap or if it will succeed and rally back up towards its April highs. We should get a good idea which direction it will take early next week.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/CKFR.0.pngIf CKFR can hold above $38.00 in the early going next week, we should see an attempt at a gap fill ($42.50) in the very near-term. On August 28th, I profiled CKFR as a long watch list stock with target of $37.50- $
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ctxs.17.png
CTXS looks well positioned to attempt to test its downtrend line in the near-term.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/09/2006 11:49:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume NR Trade
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq1.pngFriday's low volume trading was NR and choppy. Although all of the major tech sectors posted gains on the day, it was a stock pickers market overall. The NASDAQ was unable to close above the 10 day EMA and until that happens we can assume a stance of near-term weakness as volume tracks higher on bearish days and lower on bullish days.
The chart below highlights the 50% retracement from the May highs to the July lows. After a significant retracement of this kind, it is normal to expect a pullback as we have seen this week. I continue to favor consolidation and possibly further pullback to the bullish gap support in the 2125 area.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq2.0.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/09/2006 11:47:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Friday, September 08, 2006Trade of the Day - Dean Foods Company (Public, NYSE:DF)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/df1.png None of my watch list stocks panned out this morning so I ran a gapper scan and kept my eye on a short list of 10 stocks for a low risk entry. DF presented a low risk opportunity just before lunch. After an hour or so of narrow range trade, it finally took off. Notice how there is no overlap of the real bodies of the candlesticks as it makes its afternoon ascent. As soon as it stalled and started to form the tip of a red candlestick, I took my exit. I was up 98 cents and didn't want to be greedy on a lacklustre Friday afternoon.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ckfr.3.png CKFR also presented a good trading opportunity this afternoon, on a break from a narrow consolidation range.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/08/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, September 07, 2006Watch List - RIMM, AAPL, NEW
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/rimm4.1.png RIMM looks like it is forming a H&S top on the 60 minute timeframe. If RIMM makes a higher low in th early going tomorrow, look for a potential long setup with a target of $81.00 to strengthen the right shoulder.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/aapl3.1.pngI'd like to buy AAPL when it comes back into its trendline on this 60 minute timeframe. Ideally, it will tag both the trendline and one of the horizontal support lines simultaneously.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/new.2.png NEW looks poised for a bounce at this support level. Target $40.00.
Click on charts to enlarge.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 11:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Thursday, September 07, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of 2150 Support
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.99.png As per last night's post we had continued weakness on the open and managed to find support at 2150 at the 10:00 reversal time. The bulls took over the session until the the Philadelphia federal reserve President's hawkish stance on interest rates became public in midafternoon. This set off another round of selling into the close. By the end of the session, the NASDAQ had shed 12.5 pts. and carved out a NR stick with a long upper shadow. Normally, I would expect a reversal at this support level, leading into a lower high which would confirm that we are in the midst of a pullback. However, tomorrow is Friday with no economic data in front of the open so we have to wait until the pre-market to get a better indication.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tale of the Tape
To cast a vote for your favorite 2006 stock pimp click here ;)
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:19:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: (AAPL)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/AAPL1.0.png As per last night's watch list, yesterday AAPL tested its $70.00 pivot point in late day trading. This morning it gapped up in the pre-market. It held the pre-market low in the opening minutes of trade and then started heading north. My entry was $70.52 and I booked 50% of my profit as price rallyed up to test Tuesday's high. I closed the position just above $73.00 on some weakness in the mid-afternoon. As I mentioned last night, $70.00 was a long standing pivot point. I find that pivot points of highly liquid stocks offer great trading opportunities!
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, September 06, 2006Watch List - AKAM, KLAC, LRCX, AAPL
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.8.png AKAM carved out a bearish evening star pattern on a failed breakout. Next support level just below $38.00. Failures usually result in deep pullbacks, but we'll take it one day at a time.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/klac.1.pngTechnically, KLAC should bounce when it pulls back to its pivot point, however, if it fails it will open the door for more selling.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/lrcx.10.png We've been bearish on LRCX for some time now. A high volume break of this odd looking bearish flag pattern, could set things in motion.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/aapl.12.png AAPL - Will the $70.00 pivot point hold as support?
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 09:33:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking was Overdue
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.99.png
Yesterday's low volume close above resistance was somewhat suspicious. However, it wasn't out of the ordinary given August's low volume rally. Today's gap down and non-stop selling was a clear sign of profit taking. We closed on the session lows and the AH trade showed more weakness in the semiconductor sector on ATYT's lowered guidance. Expect more weakness on the open tomorrow. Next area of NASDAQ support is 2150.
Tomorrow's economic reports start with initial claims at 8:30, followed by wholesale inventories at 10:00 and crude at 10:30. This is the type of environment where any minor economic report can set things off so its best to be aware.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 08:15:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Lam Research Corp NASDAQ (LRCX)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/lrcx.png The NASDAQ's sharp gap down off of the open, was a pretty good signal that this was going to be a bearish session. I quickly reviewed my short list of weak stocks and decided to short LRCX. Semiconductors were hit hard today on a SNDK downgrade and news that INTC would cut fewer jobs than expected. In AH trade, ATYT guided below consensus resulting in more bleeding for AMD and NVDA (sympathy).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 08:00:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
Deutsche Bank upgrades Devon Energy (DVN 72.14) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $80 from $61, saying the co looks well positioned to benefit from the production test on Chevron's Jack discovery with four Lower Tertiary discoveries holding up to 900 MMboe of net reserves.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 06:55:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Watch List - CYMI, MRVL, RIMM
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/cymi.2.pngI'm noticing a lot of semiconductor stocks positioning themselves for a breakout. CYMI is a good example along with AMD, INTC. If this rally is real, we need success in this sector.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/mrvl.1.pngMRVL is positioning itself for a retest of resistance. Yesterday afternoon's squeeze could foreshadow a sharp move ahead.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/rimm.10.pngRIMM looks well positioned to breakout of yet another consolidation zone.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 06:33:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, September 05, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of the 200 MA Looms Ahead
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.98.pngThe NASDAQ added 12.5 points and closed above resistance but the volume felt very tepid especially in the afternoon. The SOX put in a solid performance but the rest of the tech sectors were mixed. Then next level of resistance is the 200 MA which is just 20 points away.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2006 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Devon Energy Corporation (Public, NYSE:DVN)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/dvn.png DVN gapped up on the open on news that their Jack #2 test results fully met expectations and that its partnership with Chevron could produce the nation's biggest new source of oil. This was a breakaway gap on 5 times average volume. My entry was shortly before noon - a typical dummy entry as price took out the high of the NR bar just above the base of the resistance zone. I booked 50% of my profit as price reached the 50% Fibonacci extension at $71.70 and sold the balance as price tagged the full extension at $74.40.
I basically followed the methodolgy outlined in last night's post "Daytrading Opening Gaps" to find this setup. The Fibonaaci extensions are a direct application of Trader X's methodolgy. I sometimes use resistance from the daily chart to determine my exit points, but when price reaches virgin territory as DVN did today, the Fibonacci extensions are ideal.
As per last night's watch list, I also traded AKAM today. My entry was $40.95 on the second 15 minute bar. I took a 50% profit at $41.60 on the fourth bar. I exited the balance at $41.40 after AKAM made a lower high.
N.B. the blue lines represent support and resistance. The Fibonacci extension is measured from from Friday's low to the high of the opening range bar.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2006 07:54:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Thursday, September 07, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of 2150 Support
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.99.png As per last night's post we had continued weakness on the open and managed to find support at 2150 at the 10:00 reversal time. The bulls took over the session until the the Philadelphia federal reserve President's hawkish stance on interest rates became public in midafternoon. This set off another round of selling into the close. By the end of the session, the NASDAQ had shed 12.5 pts. and carved out a NR stick with a long upper shadow. Normally, I would expect a reversal at this support level, leading into a lower high which would confirm that we are in the midst of a pullback. However, tomorrow is Friday with no economic data in front of the open so we have to wait until the pre-market to get a better indication.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tale of the Tape
To cast a vote for your favorite 2006 stock pimp click here ;)
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:19:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: (AAPL)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/AAPL1.0.png As per last night's watch list, yesterday AAPL tested its $70.00 pivot point in late day trading. This morning it gapped up in the pre-market. It held the pre-market low in the opening minutes of trade and then started heading north. My entry was $70.52 and I booked 50% of my profit as price rallyed up to test Tuesday's high. I closed the position just above $73.00 on some weakness in the mid-afternoon. As I mentioned last night, $70.00 was a long standing pivot point. I find that pivot points of highly liquid stocks offer great trading opportunities!
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, September 06, 2006Watch List - AKAM, KLAC, LRCX, AAPL
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.8.png AKAM carved out a bearish evening star pattern on a failed breakout. Next support level just below $38.00. Failures usually result in deep pullbacks, but we'll take it one day at a time.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/klac.1.pngTechnically, KLAC should bounce when it pulls back to its pivot point, however, if it fails it will open the door for more selling.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/lrcx.10.png We've been bearish on LRCX for some time now. A high volume break of this odd looking bearish flag pattern, could set things in motion.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/aapl.12.png AAPL - Will the $70.00 pivot point hold as support?
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 09:33:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking was Overdue
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.99.png
Yesterday's low volume close above resistance was somewhat suspicious. However, it wasn't out of the ordinary given August's low volume rally. Today's gap down and non-stop selling was a clear sign of profit taking. We closed on the session lows and the AH trade showed more weakness in the semiconductor sector on ATYT's lowered guidance. Expect more weakness on the open tomorrow. Next area of NASDAQ support is 2150.
Tomorrow's economic reports start with initial claims at 8:30, followed by wholesale inventories at 10:00 and crude at 10:30. This is the type of environment where any minor economic report can set things off so its best to be aware.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 08:15:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Lam Research Corp NASDAQ (LRCX)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/lrcx.png The NASDAQ's sharp gap down off of the open, was a pretty good signal that this was going to be a bearish session. I quickly reviewed my short list of weak stocks and decided to short LRCX. Semiconductors were hit hard today on a SNDK downgrade and news that INTC would cut fewer jobs than expected. In AH trade, ATYT guided below consensus resulting in more bleeding for AMD and NVDA (sympathy).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 08:00:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
Deutsche Bank upgrades Devon Energy (DVN 72.14) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $80 from $61, saying the co looks well positioned to benefit from the production test on Chevron's Jack discovery with four Lower Tertiary discoveries holding up to 900 MMboe of net reserves.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 06:55:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Watch List - CYMI, MRVL, RIMM
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/cymi.2.pngI'm noticing a lot of semiconductor stocks positioning themselves for a breakout. CYMI is a good example along with AMD, INTC. If this rally is real, we need success in this sector.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/mrvl.1.pngMRVL is positioning itself for a retest of resistance. Yesterday afternoon's squeeze could foreshadow a sharp move ahead.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/rimm.10.pngRIMM looks well positioned to breakout of yet another consolidation zone.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 06:33:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, September 05, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of the 200 MA Looms Ahead
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.98.pngThe NASDAQ added 12.5 points and closed above resistance but the volume felt very tepid especially in the afternoon. The SOX put in a solid performance but the rest of the tech sectors were mixed. Then next level of resistance is the 200 MA which is just 20 points away.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2006 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Devon Energy Corporation (Public, NYSE:DVN)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/dvn.png DVN gapped up on the open on news that their Jack #2 test results fully met expectations and that its partnership with Chevron could produce the nation's biggest new source of oil. This was a breakaway gap on 5 times average volume. My entry was shortly before noon - a typical dummy entry as price took out the high of the NR bar just above the base of the resistance zone. I booked 50% of my profit as price reached the 50% Fibonacci extension at $71.70 and sold the balance as price tagged the full extension at $74.40.
I basically followed the methodolgy outlined in last night'svirgin territory as DVN did today, the Fibonacci extensions are ideal.
As per last night's watch list, I also traded AKAM today. My entry was $40.95 on the second 15 minute bar. I took a 50% profit at $41.60 on the fourth bar. I exited the balance at $41.40 after AKAM made a lower high.
N.B. the blue lines represent support and resistance. The Fibonacci extension is measured from from Friday's low to the high of the opening range bar.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2006 07:54:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Thursday, September 07, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of 2150 Support
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.99.png As per last night's post we had continued weakness on the open and managed to find support at 2150 at the 10:00 reversal time. The bulls took over the session until the the Philadelphia federal reserve President's hawkish stance on interest rates became public in midafternoon. This set off another round of selling into the close. By the end of the session, the NASDAQ had shed 12.5 pts. and carved out a NR stick with a long upper shadow. Normally, I would expect a reversal at this support level, leading into a lower high which would confirm that we are in the midst of a pullback. However, tomorrow is Friday with no economic data in front of the open so we have to wait until the pre-market to get a better indication.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:19:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: (AAPL)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/AAPL1.0.png As per last night's watch list, yesterday AAPL tested its $70.00 pivot point in late day trading. This morning it gapped up in the pre-market. It held the pre-market low in the opening minutes of trade and then started heading north. My entry was $70.52 and I booked 50% of my profit as price rallyed up to test Tuesday's high. I closed the position just above $73.00 on some weakness in the mid-afternoon. As I mentioned last night, $70.00 was a long standing pivot point. I find that pivot points of highly liquid stocks offer great trading opportunities!
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, September 06, 2006Watch List - AKAM, KLAC, LRCX, AAPL
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.8.png AKAM carved out a bearish evening star pattern on a failed breakout. Next support level just below $38.00. Failures usually result in deep pullbacks, but we'll take it one day at a time.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/klac.1.pngTechnically, KLAC should bounce when it pulls back to its pivot point, however, if it fails it will open the door for more selling.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/lrcx.10.png We've been bearish on LRCX for some time now. A high volume break of this odd looking bearish flag pattern, could set things in motion.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/aapl.12.png AAPL - Will the $70.00 pivot point hold as support?
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 09:33:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking was Overdue
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.99.png
Yesterday's low volume close above resistance was somewhat suspicious. However, it wasn't out of the ordinary given August's low volume rally. Today's gap down and non-stop selling was a clear sign of profit taking. We closed on the session lows and the AH trade showed more weakness in the semiconductor sector on ATYT's lowered guidance. Expect more weakness on the open tomorrow. Next area of NASDAQ support is 2150.
Tomorrow's economic reports start with initial claims at 8:30, followed by wholesale inventories at 10:00 and crude at 10:30. This is the type of environment where any minor economic report can set things off so its best to be aware.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 08:15:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Lam Research Corp NASDAQ (LRCX)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/lrcx.png The NASDAQ's sharp gap down off of the open, was a pretty good signal that this was going to be a bearish session. I quickly reviewed my short list of weak stocks and decided to short LRCX. Semiconductors were hit hard today on a SNDK downgrade and news that INTC would cut fewer jobs than expected. In AH trade, ATYT guided below consensus resulting in more bleeding for AMD and NVDA (sympathy).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 08:00:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 06:55:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Watch List - CYMI, MRVL, RIMM
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/cymi.2.pngI'm noticing a lot of semiconductor stocks positioning themselves for a breakout. CYMI is a good example along with AMD, INTC. If this rally is real, we need success in this sector.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/mrvl.1.pngMRVL is positioning itself for a retest of resistance. Yesterday afternoon's squeeze could foreshadow a sharp move ahead.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/rimm.10.pngRIMM looks well positioned to breakout of yet another consolidation zone.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2006 06:33:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, September 05, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of the 200 MA Looms Ahead
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.98.pngThe NASDAQ added 12.5 points and closed above resistance but the volume felt very tepid especially in the afternoon. The SOX put in a solid performance but the rest of the tech sectors were mixed. Then next level of resistance is the 200 MA which is just 20 points away.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2006 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Devon Energy Corporation (Public, NYSE:DVN)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/dvn.png DVN gapped up on the open on news that their Jack #2 test results fully met expectations and that its partnership with Chevron could produce the nation's biggest new source of oil. This was a breakaway gap on 5 times average volume. My entry was shortly before noon - a typical dummy entry as price took out the high of the NR bar just above the base of the resistance zoneterritory as DVN did today, the Fibonacci extensions are ideal.
As
N.B. the blue lines represent support and resistance. The Fibonacci extension is measured from from Friday's low to the high of the opening range bar.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2006 07:54:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Tuesday, September 05, 2006Watch List - AKAM
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.7.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2006 01:10:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, September 04, 2006Daytrading Opening Gaps
There two types of opening gaps: full gaps and partial gaps, where full gaps open above the previous day's high or low and partial gaps open above or below the previous day's close assuming the close is not the high (low) of the day. Once I have segregated the full gaps from the partial gaps, I then quickly move to the daily timeframe and try to determine if the full gap is a continuation (runaway), breakaway or possibly an exhaustion gap. What does all this mean and how important is it to define the gap before day trading it? Let's define the gaps first and then it will become a lot easier to see how it all fits into the day trading strategy.
A continuation gap, also referred to as a runaway gap is an extension of the existing trend. It does not necesarily involve a price pattern. For example in an uptrend, if a good news story comes out in the after or pre-market, it fuels the bullish interest in the stock and the stock gaps up on the open.
A breakaway gap usually forms as part of a price pattern, for example a bullish base or a bearish base. Here is an example from last Thursday.
After a significant downtrend, NCS had been forming a bullish base (ascending triangle) for the entire month of August. On Thursday it gapped up, quickly retested it base and rallied for a gain of 5 points from the previous day's close.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ncs.pngIn the early going on Friday, NCS tested its rising 20 period EMA on the 15 minute timeframe, and continued its bullish momentum.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ncs%2015.png
On Thursday, if you had spotted the bullish base on the daily view and mapped it out on the 15 minute timeframe, you would have noticed the test of the base and could have confidently taken a long position. It should be noted that NCS reported earnings on Wednesday AH. However, they missed by one penny on both the top and bottom lines. They did guide slightly higher for the next QTR and full year. Only 1500 shares traded in the combined AH and pre-market. It wasn't even mentioned on Briefing's gapper list on Thursday morning. I found it through a scan, however, I did not trade it. I opted for a more familiar name JOYG, an equally compelling breakaway gap up play.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/joyg.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/joyg15.png
Next we have the exhaustion gap which usually occurs just prior to the end of an extended up or downtrend. These types of gaps have a much better chance of getting filled than continuation and breakaway gaps and will be the subject of a future post. However, for the purposes of this post, if you identify your potential full gap long or short as an exhaustion gap, its best to move on, or fade the gap.
In summary, when trading gaps as part of a daytrading strategy, look for stocks that fit the profile of the continuation (runaway) or the breakaway gap profile. The breakaway gap has the potential for the strongest move as it is breaking out of a price pattern. Look for at least double the daily volume on the gap and ideally 4-5 average daily volume. If price moves to resistance in a bullish gap or support in a bearish gap and then volume drys up, its likely that the gap move has run out of steam and an exit is usually the best course of action. A good example of this last scenario is GYMB. The first chart is the 15 minute timeframe, followed by the daily. From the 15 minute view, we can see that it gapped up on high volume and rallied into resistance. When it reached resistance volume
GYMB gapped up and could not break resistance. If you were in this trade, you could have exited with a small profit or breakeven mid-morning when volume disappeared. Look for continuation of successfull breakaway gap plays into day two. Usually the stock pulls back to its rising 20 period EMA in early trade and then attempts to retest its previous day's highs. Refer to the examples above of NCS and JOYG for the day two setup. Remember that if a gap play fails, support/resistance is very far away. Respecting your stop is especially important when trading a gap.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/gymb.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/gymb%20daily.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/04/2006 11:15:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Friday, September 01, 2006Trade of the Day - TODCO (Public, NYSE:THE)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/the.png THE gapped up on the open and tried to break resistance on the second bar but pulled back in. As soon as the third bar showed me some continuation, I went long. I booked 50% of my profit after a 1 pt. gain and sold the balance into the close. Thanks monkeydust!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/akam1.png AKAM traded up slightly in the pre-market. The long entry was a break of the pre-market high. After consolidating just above yesterday's high, it rallied sharply mid-morning. I locked 50% profit after a 1 pt. gain and I was stopped out on the balance. AKAM closed near its highs and the daily timeframe looks well positioned for further gains next week.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/01/2006 07:58:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
AKAM - Nice Move Today
My persistance with AKAM is paying off today. Charts later tonight.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/01/2006 11:50:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, August 31, 2006No Watch List Tonight
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Posted by Jamie at 8/31/2006 10:52:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - No Traction Pre-Holiday Trade
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.97.pngNot too many buyers ahead of the long weekend. A NR day on slightly higher volume. Expect more of the same tomorrow.
We have lots of economic data tomorrow starting with non-farm payrolls at 8:30, followed by Mich. sentiment at 9:50 and construction spending and ISM at 10:00.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/31/2006 09:48:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/joyg.png A low risk dummy entry as JOYG lifted from support of its midday consolidation. Notice how there is very little overlap of the real bodies of the candlesticks as JOYG makes its ascent. These are my favourite types of trades.
This morning I took a long position in AKAM which basically failed to rally to the $40.00 resistance level. I had a partial sell limit order at $39.95 but it never got tagged so I managed to squeeze $0.40 on a lower high midday.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/31/2006 07:56:00 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
Dumped CHS at breakeven when I read that the August same store sales decreased 2.6%.
Gapping Up: CYTR +17%, SEAC +15%, JOYG +7.8%, OLAB +7.3%, GYMB +5.5%, CIEN +5%, RCL +5%, JWN +4.8%, LWSN +4.3%, FRED +4.3%, RMBS +4.2%, BEBE +2.2%, NVLS +1.6%... Gapping Down: AD -29%, JOSB -15.8%, JDSU -10.6%, LTXX -8%, DRYS -5.5%, PSUN -4%, BOBJ -1.3%, ASML -1%... ETF Movers: GLD +1.2%, QQQQ +0.18%, OIH +0.40%, XLE +0.32%
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Posted by Jamie at 8/31/2006 08:41:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, August 30, 2006Watch List - CTXS, VRTX, BRCM, MXIM
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ctxs.16.png CTXS made a higher high in mid August and now $30.00 looks solid as support and a higher low. Look for a high volume bounce above the 20 EMA.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/vrtx.0.png VRTX looks poised to start the next leg up.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/brcm.14.png BRCM has formed a bullish rounded base. Buy on a high volume break. Near-term target is $32.50.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/mxim.0.png MXIM has almost completed a mini H&S bottom. Buy on a high volume break of $30.00. On a measured move basis, it could go to $34.00 in the near-term.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/30/2006 11:13:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Resistance Just Over Head
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/namo.7.png The McClellan Oscillator is indicating that the NASDAQ is overbought.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.96.png The NASDAQ rallied in the morning and again in the middle of the afternoon and managed to hold on to most of its gains into the close. We are heading into resistance set by the July highs so tomorrow should be a cautious day for the bulls as we will likely get some profit taking. However, we have a few economic indcators that may set the tone: Initial claims at 8:30; followed by Chicago PMI and Factory Orders at 10:00.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/30/2006 09:05:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Wednesday, August 30, 2006Trade of the Day - Lam Research Corp NASDAQ (LRCX)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/lrcx.0.png I was not able to trade the open or most of the morning due to office deadlines. However, I did catch a few midday entries which played out very nicely. The best trade was a low risk entry in LRCX which generated 1+ pts. I also placed a buy stop limit order in BRCM just above morning resistance. It had a nice rally after it retested resistance (which now acted as support).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/brcm1.1.png 15 minute charts - click to enlargeMy only other trade was CHS (entry at $18.00) and I'm swinging it into tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/30/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Pre-Market
TZOO and PCLN downgraded at Stifel Nicolaus:
TZOO from hold to sell; PCLN from buy to hold. Too bad because TZOO was consolidating its recent gains very nicely and setting up for a potential breakout.
Watch List:
I'm sticking with the usual suspects going into today's up for a bullish retracement on a trading basis (not an investment recommendation). It was mentioned as a possible bullish island reversal on CNBC by the guest host this morning.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/30/2006 08:01:00 AM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, August 29, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Take Back Control of Choppy Session
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.95.png We carved out a hammer like continuation bar on higher volume as the bulls and bears battled it out for most of the session. Lower consumer sentiment shifted the power to the bears in the early going and the bulls took back control on the heels of a disjointed FOMC message in the latter part of the session. The SOX and networking stocks paced the way to the upside and most major tech sectors were in the green by the end of the day. Watch for Crude oil inventories at 10:30 tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/29/2006 08:38:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/akam3.png I was hoping for a long setup on AKAM going into the session, but the early action was very choppy and the wide range bars did not create an opportunity for a low risk entry. After lower than expected consumer sentiment numbers were released at 10:00, we came into some continuation on the fourth bar and an opportunity to short. I covered 50% of the position as it tagged the first support level. I covered the balance of the position when I saw continuation to the long side about a half hour later. I immediately took a long position, hoping for a retest of yesterday's highs. By the end of the session we managed to get back close to the morning highs. I exited the trade into the close. This was not an easy trade and required constant attention just to make sure that direction was not about to change.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/29/2006 08:12:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Watch List - AKAM, TZOO
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.6.png After a lower low on the open, AKAM made a parabolic intraday move to the upside on higher volume. The afternoon saw a 38% Fibonacci retracement. Look for continuation of the bullish momentum. Preliminary target is $40.00, followed by $42.00.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/akam2.0.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/tzoo.5.png TZOO is testing its base and could breakout anytime. Don't miss the move as it will be a short squeeze.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/29/2006 07:30:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, August 28, 2006Blogger Problems Loading Images
Blogger is not letting me post any images at the moment so I will update the watch list tomorrow morning.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2006 10:55:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Chico's FAS, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CHS) - TA Request
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/chs.png This is a 60 min. view of CHS. The stock capitulated last Thursday following its earnings release. Today it made a higher low and looks poised to bounce if it can regain its 20 period EMA or trade above $18.00. This is a very short-term trade. Resistance at $20.00 followed by $21.00.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2006 10:50:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
OmniVision Technologies (Public, NASDAQ:OVTI) - TA Request
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ovti.2.png
OVTI has three levels of support along its rising trendline on the weekly view. First we have $16.55 which was hit last week, followed by $15.55 and $15.00, the latter two of which mark the open and close of bullish gap support dating back to November 18th, 2005. OVTI is trading below all of its MAs, however, it will likely come into a technical bounce in the near term as it approaches its long-term trendline. Failure to hold the trendline could signal a double top breakdown.
Notwithstanding the pure technical aspects of the chart, I am reading that one of the co-founders and senior sales executive is leaving the comapny to persue other interests. This type of news is normally very negative for a stock's price, but in this case, it may already be priced in. I, personally don't recommend going long before a clear reversal pattern presents itself.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2006 10:43:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.94.png Despite the low volume action, both the COMPQ and QQQQ's are moving forward according to plan. All major tech sectors ended the session in the green with internet retail leading the way on news of AMZN's stock buyback and a GOOG/EBAY alliance. The SOX also got a boost from upgrades for NVDA and INTC, although NVDA fell victim to some profit taking as it attempted to fill its bearish gap resistance dating back to May 12th.
Watch for consumer confidence tomorrow at 10:00 and FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/qqqq.2.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2006 08:36:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - CheckFree Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CKFR)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/ckfr1.0.png As per this morning's watch list, CKFR opened lower and tested the 38% Fibonacci retracement level from Friday's high to Thursday's low. I watched it trade in a very narrow range for the first 5 - 10 minutes and placed a buy stop limit order at $35.05. The rest was a smooth, orderly ascent to test resistance at $36.00 where I locked in 50% of my profit. I moved my stop to $35.75 and by mid-afternoon, I moved it up again to $35.95. I exited the balance of the position into the close.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2006 07:54:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Monday, August 28, 2006Watch List - CKFR
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/CKFR.pngTechnical Bounce - Last Thursday CKFR fell into its 200 day MA on the weekly timeframe and started to reverse. Friday it gapped up on an upgrade and this resulted in a morning star reversal pattern. Look for continued upside and a preliminary target in the $37.50 - 38.00 area.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2006 08:01:00 AM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, August 27, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Consolidation
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.92.png The NASDAQ is in a low volume consolidation phase as it continues to trade within in its bullish flag pattern.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq%2060.6.png
Failure to reclaim the 50 period MA on the 60 minute timeframe leaves the NASDAQ open to further retracement.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/27/2006 07:45:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Gatzby
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/GatzbyJPG.jpgThis is Gatzby, my niece's new puppy. He's a riot!
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Posted by Jamie at 8/27/2006 08:07:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Friday, August 25, 2006Trade of the Day - Research in Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/rimm.0.png Just before leaving for work, I read something on Briefing.com regarding increased handset expectations and decided to place a buy stop order above the pre-market high. This news was the cherry on the cake so to speak, because yesterday RIMM had a strong finish and I was planning to watch carefully for a strong open. I locked in 50% profit at the 10:00 - 10:15 reversal time and exited the balance as RIMM failed to take out $83.00 on the third attempt. Volume was thinning out and it couldn't even manage a gap fill at $83.06 (April 6th).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/aapl2.1.pngThis AAPL trade is an example of a low volatility breakout (referred to as the squeeze by John Carter). Notice how volume drys up midday as the stock trades in a very narrow range. It forms a shallow base and as price approaches resistance volume starts to perk up. I used a buy stop limit order on the entry just above $68.31. My target was a retest of the morning high at which point I locked in 50%. When price backed off of the $69.00, it was time to think about closing the position.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/25/2006 11:06:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Mailbag
As you can well imagine, I did receive more than my usual share of email following the Stock tickr interview. I'm a little behind in responding to everyone, but I will get caught up this weekend.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/25/2006 08:03:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (Public, NYSE:STP) - TA Request
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/stp.png From a purely technical perspective, STP should get a technical bounce here as there is a lot of support at $28.00 going all the way back to Dec. 2005. However, acquisitions are in play. Next level of support $26.00.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/25/2006 07:52:00 AM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, August 24, 2006NASDAQ 100 Shares: NASDAQ (QQQQ) - Tweezer Bottom Reversal Pattern
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/qqqq.1.png
Tweezer bottoms are minor reversal candlestick patterns. However, as I mentioned last week, my experience is that they are fairly reliable. They form when two candlesticks have identical lows. In the case of the QQQQ, $37.92 was the low yesterday and today. According to Steve Nison, the pattern is more meaningful when the first bar has a wide body and the second bar has a narrow body. In our case, yesterday's bearish engulfing bar has been neutralized by today's NR doji like stick. Moreover, this price action took place strategically above bullish gap support.
I ran a quick scan to see if any other names formed tweezer bottoms today: ORCL, SMH, PLCM, and ALTR. Let's see if we get any follow through tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/24/2006 10:40:00 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - A Weak Open and a Strong Close
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.91.png Today's low volume choppy session was a bit of a snooze fest in the morning. However, the afternoon session perked up a bit and I noticed that many of my usual suspects closed the session strong, which leaves me optimistic going into tomorrow. The NASDAQ carved out a NR hammer like stick on low volume. Despite the morning swoon, no technical damage was done and the all important SOX had a great afternoon led by a huge rally in SNDK on a Caris upgrade.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/24/2006 07:56:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL - Midday Capitulation Play
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/aapl.1.png Around midday AAPL capitulated on a huge volume spike. As soon as a reversal was confirmed, I took a long position. When a stock capitulates intraday, it sets up a reversal back to the base from where the selling began. As soon as price reached my target, I booked my profit. These types of plays, generally happen quickly so as soon as you see a huge volume spike at the end of an intraday price plunge, its time to find your entry point.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/24/2006 07:02:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, August 23, 2006Watch List - CEPH, ATHR, NVDA,
I'm seeing a lot of bullish flag patterns on many of my charts tonight. Look for continuation from those stocks that closed near their afternoon highs and lows.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ceph.2.png CEPH closed on its highs and looks well positioned to attempt a breakout any day now.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/athr.1.png ATHR fell through its pivot on a closing basis. Look for a possible retest on the open followed by further selling.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/nvda.8.png NVDA tested its 10 day EMA and showed some strength into the last hour of trade. Look for continuation on the open. Initial target is $27.00, followed by $27.50.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/23/2006 10:47:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Wednesday, August 23, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - A Low Volume Bearish Engulfing Pattern
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.90.pngThe NASDAQ carved out a low volume bearish engulfing candlestick today. Shortly after the open the bears took control of the session and it wasn't until late in the session when we tested the 10 day EMA that some buyers started coming back in. The NASDAQ shed 15 points on the day but the daily chart still looks good, in fact we may be in the process of forming a bullish flag pattern.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/23/2006 08:44:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Research in Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/rimm2.png Long RIMM on a break of the OR (opening range) high. I couldn't have been in the trade more than 5 minutes before it started coming back in fast, so I took my exit right away before it turned into a loss. The next bar confirmed that this was a failure so I started looking to take a short position because failures usually result in deep pullbacks. As soon as the next bar showed me a little continuation I shorted. My target was a retest of $78.00. By mid-afternoon that target started looking unattainable so I covered 50%. I was stopped out on the balance shortly thereafter.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/23/2006 08:31:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, August 22, 2006Watch List - AKAM, TZOO, EBAY
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/akam.5.png AKAM appears to be forming an ascending triangle. Long on a break of $39.00. Target is a retest of the $40.00 area and hopefully a successful break of the triangle pattern.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/tzoo.4.png I took TZOO off of my short list of usual suspects about two weeks ago. Big mistake, good things come to those who wait. The shorts got squeezed today and we may have a double bottom.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/ebay.1.png The internet sector looks poised to break higher and EBAY may be in the mix this time round.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/22/2006 11:19:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Stocktickr Interview
It was a pleasure and a privilege to be interviewed by Dave of the famed StockTickr Blog. If you're interested in reading about my trading background, check it out here. And while you're there check out all of the other cool trader interviews as well as the Stocktickr trader tools.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/22/2006 09:28:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Consolidation is Good
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.89.png Another low volume, consolidation day. We need this after last week's big gains. And I expect more of the same early tomorrow unles we get some sort of catalyst. Existing home sales data will be released at 10:00, followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30.
Most tech sectors ended the session in the green with the SOX and software, the major exceptions. The internet sector ($GIN) had a good day today and looks poised to break higher.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/22/2006 08:18:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Research in Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/200/rimm1.png RIMM followed the market and opened strong despite relatively average volume. The first bar was a wide range bullish bar. I waited until the second bar showed some green, confirming continuation before stepping in. My target was a retest of last Thursday's highs. The target was reached in late morning and I sold my entire position into strength as price approached $89.00.
From last night's watch list - PAYX didn't trigger a long. I took a long position in RBAK at $18.20 in the late morning but it stalled at $18.50 resulting in a scratch.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/22/2006 07:47:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, August 21, 2006Watch List - RBAK, PAYX
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/rbak.1.png RBAK is pulling back to support in an orderly fashion. Look for a reversal setup in the area of $17.00 if $18.00 doesn't hold.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/payx.1.png PAYX long on a high volume break of resistance at $36.00. Potential hurdle is the 50 MA currently tracking at $36.30. Initial target is $37.00. I saw some late day strength in this stock when the rest of my charts were fading into the close.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/21/2006 11:30:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Consolidation
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/400/compq.88.png This type of low volume consolidation is very bullish. Another day or two like this will give the 10 day EMA time to catch up to price. The SOX and internet led the pullback. Some of last week's big winners were today's big losers, however, BRCM and NVDA, the two worst performing NDX 100 names, only gave back 3.7%.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/21/2006 09:13:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
F5 Networks Inc. NASDAQ: (FFIV) - Double Bottom?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ffiv.0.png A reader asks if FFIV has made a double bottom? In the very short-term it has, however, a closer look at the longer time frame below (weekly), indicates that FFIV has reversed off of its neckline and that it may be in the midst of its last bounce before completing a H&S top.
So in the short-term, and after consolidating last weeek's big gains, it might retest the $57.00 area, however, it will likely find its way back down to the neckline shortly thereafter.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/ffiv3.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/21/2006 08:56:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/akam2.png Long AKAM as it reverses off of its pivot point. The target was a gap fill. Unfortunately, all of the MAs converged above price at the halfway point and AKAM could not reach the target. I moved my stop up to $39.50 and was stopped out. On the following 15 minute bar, I decided to go short hoping that the pivot would not hold as support on the next test. It took most of the day, but price finally broke support mid-afternoon and after a retest, fell hard in the last half hour of the session.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6603/1956/320/nvec1.png As per last night's watch list, long NVEC on a reversal from support at $26.30. Although, I managed to pocket $0.75 on the trade, this type of reversal is usually good for a retest of recent highs. Today's market was just too weak.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/21/2006 08:15:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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