Wednesday, September 12, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - The Shaw Group Inc. (Public, NYSE:SGR)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuiO2nW4YFI/AAAAAAAACWA/0KxciRQhU6U/s400/sgr.png SGR was a B&B setup from last night's focus list. It set up perfectly at the base of yesterday's swing high.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuiO23W4YGI/AAAAAAAACWI/B6ILReVXmcU/s400/cal.png CAL was a B&B short. Initially, it looked like I would get two inside bars, but the 4th bar was head fake. I took the trade anyway and my target was easily met just as lunch was beginning.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuiO23W4YHI/AAAAAAAACWQ/85gLwJqtUGI/s400/mnst1.pngMNST was a short setup at R2. The volume on the rally from S2 was dismal (dead cat bounce), so the two bearish stars at the base of R2, signalled a short.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2007 09:11:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Dummy Trading Tip - Two Inside Bars
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuhPEHW4YBI/AAAAAAAACVg/AHkPZLQ8C34/s400/fwlt.png In response to reader feedback asking for more coaching/training type posts, I am going to explain setups in a little more detail.
Two inside bars are better than one and we had a few nice setups from the watch list in the early going. In the first hour of the trading session I like to sort my watch list by % change which gives me the big movers at either end of the spectrum - long and short.
Today we had a number of strong starts and we don't want to chase winners because this can lead to big draw downs if the timing is off. So we wait for low risk dummy entries. I am very fond of two inside bars because I've had a lot of success with the pattern. Why is it successful?
Two inside bars are like a coiled spring. A sort of Jack in the Box. In the example above FWLT pops up on the open with a WRB. It consolidates on declining volume and carves out two inside bars, the second of which is inside the the previous inside bar. Thus the coiled spring is ready to pop once again. I prefer when the trigger bar is green for longs and red for shorts. Also, make sure that the 5 period ema is in very close proximity to the the second inside bar.
Another criteria I like to employ is proximity to the pivot level. A base at the cusp of R2 like we have on the FWLT and CROX charts is ideal because, in theory, there is less resistance. NTRI bases at P which is fine as long as we have sufficient distance between the next PP level.
The CROX chart below, also from the WL, meets the criteria perfectly.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuhPEXW4YCI/AAAAAAAACVo/o8GL91jSquk/s400/crox.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuhPEXW4YDI/AAAAAAAACVw/frR8oM9uv7I/s400/ntri.pngNTRI, another WL stock is less obvious. Here we don't have declining volume on the two inside bars, so I strongly suggest that you drill down to a lower timeframe in order to properly assess if there is a viable setup here.
A quick look at the 5 min. timeframe below, and we see a low risk B&B entry with a series of higher lows leading into the base, so it is safe to take the entry.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuhPEnW4YEI/AAAAAAAACV4/Vgl40e1hNbA/s400/ntri1.png
Burn this simple setup to memory and then look for it to develop within the first half of the morning. On any given day, with a WL of approximately 50 stocks, you should be able to spot one, if not two, like setups. It works especially well on stocks coming out of a relatively flat or narrow base. Good Trading!
Edit: This post previously described the second inside bar on the FWLT chart as NR7, but it's actually NR5, so I've eliminated the reference altogether to avoid confusion.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2007 04:20:00 PM 13 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, NR7, Volume
Tuesday, September 11, 2007Watch List Update
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc8XodBoVI/AAAAAAAACVY/27X71r5vEFY/s200/genz.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc8PodBoUI/AAAAAAAACVQ/y3tVy70_RIQ/s200/sgr.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc8FYdBoPI/AAAAAAAACUo/OGVle9plG-Y/s200/emc.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc8FodBoQI/AAAAAAAACUw/8nBJE6-U-EI/s200/ibm.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc8F4dBoRI/AAAAAAAACU4/V7L8xYO_ej8/s200/joyg.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc8F4dBoSI/AAAAAAAACVA/bddkxnZufXY/s200/grmn.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc8GIdBoTI/AAAAAAAACVI/Pah0wKkuNmo/s200/fwlt.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc7iYdBoOI/AAAAAAAACUg/WwlY95uXy1Y/s200/mnst.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc5nodBoCI/AAAAAAAACTA/CixGecFlavU/s200/affx.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc5n4dBoDI/AAAAAAAACTI/d6FedZTS4Ow/s200/ALXN.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc5oIdBoEI/AAAAAAAACTQ/iQjflMEWQJ8/s200/bcsi.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc5oIdBoFI/AAAAAAAACTY/3U33NN2bpps/s200/biib.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruc5oYdBoGI/AAAAAAAACTg/cVzqoH3VCrk/s200/csco.png
I've removed JCOM from the WL and I've added GILD and GENZ. Today CELG, AMGN and BIDU had big moves. I missed the two BO moves because they happened in the a.m., but I'll be watching for follow through. The BIDU move would have been difficult to trade anyway. The charts above comprise my focus list for tomorrow. Click on charts to enlarge
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Posted by Jamie at 9/11/2007 08:47:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
Watch List Trade of the Day - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RucfRIdBn-I/AAAAAAAACSg/wokifgT4Dtc/s400/amgn1.png I missed most of the morning session and I had another appointment scheduled at 4:00 EST, so I didn't get to my trading desk until 11:30. I wasn't expecting to get much trading done today, so I was really surprised to see how well the markets took off in the afternoon.
The first chart is the daily timeframe for AMGN. The last two previous sessions carved out inverted hammers at PP support (yesterday's bar was also NR7) so this was a stock I wanted to focus on today.
Around midday, it set up a bullish shallow rounded base on the 5 minute timeframe (flat B&B with NR7 on 15 min.). I entered a dummy long on the break of the mini base. I closed the position after it took out R2 and started pulling back. I set an alert just above R2 because I wanted to see if it would hold as support and prompt a second leg up.
Sure enough, AMGN based briefly at R2 and then bounced so I took a second entry. Missed the last wave because I had to close off early.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RucfRYdBn_I/AAAAAAAACSo/xm6UQxT4_FM/s400/amgn.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuciiIdBoBI/AAAAAAAACS4/AFLxD7pbZ6o/s400/cal1.png CAL was another watch list stock I wanted to focus on today because yesterday it closed on its trendline. After breaking out of a bullish, rounded base and retesting the base as support, CAL set up a dummy long on the 5 minute timeframe.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RucfRodBoAI/AAAAAAAACSw/G9wvkkYtsoA/s400/cal.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/11/2007 07:02:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, NR7, Watchlist
Monday, September 10, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking into The Close
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuX9eYdBn9I/AAAAAAAACSY/1QYjsDhOy2E/s400/comp15.pngSimple observation - the gap fade and breach of support was a vertical swoon, the rally off of the midday swing low was somewhat choppy and the late day profit taking was also vertical accompanied by very high volume. Conclusion - doesn't bode well for the bullish camp.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: GIII +9.0%; DLLR +4.3%; TTWO +3.2%; QWDC +2.5%... Trading Down: MFRI -18.1%; LULU -4.8%; SHFL -8.6%; SORC -2.3%; ASTM -1.8%... Trading Down: OMCL +3.3% (will replace Chaparral Steel in the S&P SmallCap 600); ROH +1.7% (executes $1 bln accelerated share repurchase); CHCI +1.0% (lowers projected borrowing costs); BKR +1.0% (names Stuver as acting CFO)... Trading Down: TRBN -7.3% (preliminary analysis of Phase IIb results with TRU-015; results show improvements in RA signs and symptoms compared to placebo); EXEL -5.9% (public offering of common stock to sell 7 mln shares); HA -4.3% (reports August traffic statistics); BZH -2.0% (receives purported notice of default related to its convertible senior notes); IHS -1.8% (ESRI and Jane's Information Group forge strategic alliance); GNK -1.3% (announces sale of handymax vessel); DECK -1.2% (in 8-k, says that its Board of Directors concluded it is necessary to restate previously issued consolidated financial statements for the fiscal years 2004-2006).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/10/2007 10:26:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Cup & Handle - VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuXcu4dBn6I/AAAAAAAACSA/gQveo3Uqprc/s400/vmw.png VMW is a watch list stock and it was on the Briefing.com gapper list this morning. Around midday, I noticed what looked like a NR7 bar developing on the 15 minute timeframe. The pattern looked similar to a cup & handle but it was hard to distinguish, so I drilled down to the 5 minute timeframe for a closer look.
The five minute timeframe was much easier to distinguish the C&H characteristics. This pattern often develops on gapper stocks. It takes a long time to develop because the base or the cup portion is often quite wide as is the case with VMW. It's very easy to write these patterns off because we just get tired of waiting for something to happen and often give up and move on to something else. However, when the handle portion of the C&H pattern develops it becomes crystal clear that this could set off a momo move. The main characteristic of the handle is a shallow base on reduced volume which gives the NR7 effect.
Normally, the pattern can be expected to deliver a 100% Fibonacci extension from the low of the cup to the base. Refer to the AAPL example below for the normal extension. In the case of VMW, which is trading just below its all time high, we don't want to limit the gain to 100% if it succeeds in taking out the daily pivot high - blue sky.
I took a very low risk entry on the break of the handle. When price started to come back in after breaching the daily pivot high, I booked a partial profit. It consolidated briefly and continued higher, so I let the balance ride until it carved out a tweezer top late in the session.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuXcvIdBn7I/AAAAAAAACSI/MYA5j_Tx3p0/s400/vmw1.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuXcvYdBn8I/AAAAAAAACSQ/z2BXoQfDihg/s400/aapl.png The AAPL pattern looks like a doubled handled C&H pattern. That's why it's important to wait and observe the low volume on the second handle before anticipating an entry.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/10/2007 07:05:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7, Watchlist
NR7 Trade of the Day - TeleTech Holdings, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:TTEC)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuWtY4dBn4I/AAAAAAAACRw/BpVg0dih5wQ/s400/ttec1.png TTEK showed up on the Trade_Ideas NR7 scan as NR7-3 after the 10:30 bar. I loathe to short a stock that has already printed 2 WRBs unless it has had plenty of time to consolidate the initial weakness. A quick look at the daily (below), indicated that TTEK had successfully taken out PP support and that the next level of support was in the $24.00 area.
I liked the fact that TTEC was basing just under S2 and couldn't close above it. I took a dummy short on the break of the base. The BO bar closed on its lows which signals the strong possibility of success. I decided to take a partial at $25.50 to lock in some profit. I moved my stop just above each red bar excluding dojis and covered the balance at $24.10.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuWtZYdBn5I/AAAAAAAACR4/oTNnVL1KRxM/s400/ttec.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/10/2007 04:45:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, NR7
Sunday, September 09, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Broken Trendline on Surprisingly Poor Jobs Data
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuQivYdBn1I/AAAAAAAACRY/4mq8KXvOs3k/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuQivodBn2I/AAAAAAAACRg/5Fi5RvYmH3U/s400/comp15.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuQivodBn3I/AAAAAAAACRo/VUkX-brooRA/s400/namo.pngSurprisingly poor jobs data resulted in an ugly gap down Friday and follow through selling up to 11:00 on recession fears. However, the subdued afternoon trade leaves the door open for some consolidation. Conversely, the cumulative drop off of Tuesday's highs has been aggressive and could be a near-term top as the markets continue to be bombarded with negative news.
Companies reporting earnings the week of Sept 10th-14th include: Monday: STEI, ASHW, DLLR, LULU, NMHC, SHFL, SORC, and TTWO... Tuesday: GCOM, OHB, BRLC... Wednesday: BIVN, BRC, GRB, JOSB, and SHRP... Thursday: SEH, PNY, and PLL... Friday: No companies are scheduled to report.
Stock over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: TMTA -33%, ENZ -29.53%, JADE -21%, NFI -21%, HSII -20%, SCON -20%, ODP -18%, LFG -17%, AGL -17%, SMOD -17%, JSDA -16%, CPY -15%, MTEX -15%, MWRK -15%, OSIS -15%, FIRE -15%, OHB -15%, KFY -14%, KFRC -14%, CHINA -14%, SPRD -14%, MMPI -13%, TSN -13%, PSPT -13%, NPBC -13%, CBG -13%, NDN -13%, EMKR -12%, ARII -12%, MHO -12%, WCI -12%, OPY -12%, OPXT -12%, SMP -12%, DDS -12%, MNCP -12%, WPL -12%, IMB -12%, IVN -12%, LDL -12%, AMSWA -12%, FIZZ -11%, JCG -11%, NSTR -11%, CRZ -11%, TTEC -11%.
Stock over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: CRDC +93%, CTDC +54%, ALAB +36%, PLX +42%, CSUN +29%, DRL +26%, POZN +26%, DROOY +25%, NTO +24%, SA +24%, GPCB +22%, ASTSF +22%, APLX +21%, REFR +20%, VOL +20%, TTG +19%, GOLD +19%, IAG +19%, SILC +17%, JRJC +17%, MWP +17%, DEEP +17%, BKR +16%, ALNY +16%, ASYS +15%, DRAX +15%, SMBL +15%, SLXP +15%, CATS +15%, CXO +15%, BIOF +15%, HMY +14%, BCRX +13%, LEAP +13%
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Posted by Jamie at 9/09/2007 12:29:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Friday, September 07, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - POZEN Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:POZN)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuG6ModBn0I/AAAAAAAACRQ/LTYK90el2b0/s400/pozn.png
POZN was highlighted in my pre-market post as very active. At first I thought I had missed the move, but it pulled back sharply and carved a series of NRBs the last three of which, had consecutive higher lows. This setup a dummy B&B entry long. I had to leave midday so I left my initial stop intact. I took a partial when I got back as the trade had generated a 1 pt. gain.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuG1Y4dBnyI/AAAAAAAACRA/8d2yyYoRlxY/s400/idcc.png IDCC was a name I picked up off of the Trade_Ideas scanner. I also noticed strength in other Biotech names despite the market weakness. GILD was very momo, but I missed the correct entry and didn't want to chase it. Entered IDCC long after a consolidation base formed. It moved quickly out of the base but then started to retrace sharply so I took a partial out of fear of a head fake. It did observe the base as support so I was able to keep half of the position open for the full extension of the second leg up.
Still kicking myself for not shorting KKD. Even if I had entered on my return this afternoon, I could have generated a huge profit. Here's the chart.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuG5SIdBnzI/AAAAAAAACRI/DEDhQEY91Jk/s400/KKD.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2007 04:29:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Pre-Market - Friday September 7th
Biotech names HEPH and POZN from gapper list above have heavy PM volume. TEVA another biotech, from the watch list is trading above PP (green line) in pre-market.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuFOMIdBnwI/AAAAAAAACQw/F65lYracuOw/s400/teva.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/07/2007 08:20:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pre-Market
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Thursday, September 06, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Consolidation Day
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuC8r4dBnuI/AAAAAAAACQg/P5TT1XX5mhI/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuC8r4dBnvI/AAAAAAAACQo/WYK-NtILq18/s400/comp15.pngCautious, low volume, range bound trade ahead of the employment data which could be crucial to the Fed's interest rate decision on Sep 18.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ALOY +6.8%; HOV +4.2%; CAE +2.6%; PAY +1.5%; QBAK +1.2%; ZQK +0.90%... Trading Down: KWD -12.9%; AMSWA -9.3%; COO -3.2%; NSM -2.6%; FIZZ -2.3%; DUCK -1.7%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CAB +2.9% (will replace eFunds (EFD) in the S&P SmallCap 600); ICON +2.2% (announces definitive agreement to purchase Official Pillowtex for 231 mln in cash); ACLI +1.5% (acquires naval architecture and Marine Engineering Firm)... Trading Down: FSTW -3.1% (announces intention to voluntarily delist and deregister stock); ACAS -2.4% (announces a 5 mln share common stock offering; 4 mln by selling shareholders and 1 mln by the co - pursuant to an existing shelf); TMA -1.3% (files 8-K discussing recent developments; co delayed the funding of ~$231.6 mln of loans); LCC -1.2% (appoints Chief Operating Officer); KMT -1.0% (reaffirms Y08 guidance).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2007 10:50:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Watch List Update
The following are some of my watch list stocks with pivot points mapped out in green (lines). I'm adding SGR to the original list published last week. My favorite sector is biotech at the moment although many of these have had a nice run, it's always possible to take out the next PP level as we saw today with BIIB. Click on the charts to enlarge.
Don't forget to set alerts above (below) PPs so you won't miss the move.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCy84dBnrI/AAAAAAAACQI/8aaT3TqoN1Q/s400/joyg.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCy9YdBnsI/AAAAAAAACQQ/lifc-p3I72M/s400/sgr.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCy9YdBntI/AAAAAAAACQY/Ptz8BzIX3j0/s400/sndk.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCymIdBnoI/AAAAAAAACPw/yXRW059ELw0/s400/FFIV.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCymYdBnpI/AAAAAAAACP4/lFXAy_igXso/s400/HANS.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCymYdBnqI/AAAAAAAACQA/_WsWnnh7h08/s400/jaso.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCx-4dBnnI/AAAAAAAACPo/9xCyYtHMCPM/s400/cien.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCxNIdBndI/AAAAAAAACOg/D2a5EJPnMlQ/s400/amgn.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCxNYdBneI/AAAAAAAACOo/0a-_1iQ8efY/s400/artc.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuCxNYdBnfI/AAAAAAAACOw/YxU9Vs3khiQ/s400/cal.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2007 09:59:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point, Watchlist
Pivot Point Trade - Biogen Idec Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BIIB)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuBilYdBnWI/AAAAAAAACNo/wx-Xz-VaFMk/s400/biib.png The first chart is the daily chart of BIIB. BIIB is a watch list stock. Set alerts 5-10 cents below (above) daily pivot points. BIIB gapped up this morning and quickly tagged the daily pivot, setting off the alert in time for me to take a low risk, dummy entry as highlighted on the 5 minute timeframe below.
I took a partial when price stalled at the $66.50 area and tightened the stop to $66.00. BIIB then took off on a three bar vertical move after which I closed my position. Three WRBs in row is usually all we can hope for. Also, after three WRBs, the distance from the rising 5 period ema is usually quite wide. Price and the MA are like magnets and eventually come back together, so don't be shy to take a profit under such a scenario.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuBimIdBnXI/AAAAAAAACNw/04UK29CkDAA/s400/biib1.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuBimIdBnYI/AAAAAAAACN4/kaBTM0qgojQ/s400/joyg.png JOYG was a daily PP BO on the open. I took
small position with an initial stop under yesterday's late swing low. It moved quickly up about 80 cents and retraced. I closed the position because I felt the retracement might be a reversal. After a full retracement of the OR, JOYG carved out an inverted hammer on the PP. The next stick confirmed a bullish reversal so I entered long again. The prelim. target was the ORH. After moving well above the ORH, it came back in for a retest. The retest was successful and JOYG rallied for another leg up.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuBimYdBnaI/AAAAAAAACOI/9kv4-oqRAi8/s400/amgn.png
AMGN was a technical reversal at the daily PP.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuBmTYdBnbI/AAAAAAAACOQ/49iovVm74xs/s400/cal.png CAL was a B&B on a break of an ascending triangle. The pattern failed and I was stopped out. The third test of a support area usually breaks and failures often spawn fast moves in the opposite direction, so I took a small dummy short to end the session on a positive note.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/06/2007 04:24:00 PM 12 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Pivot Point
Wednesday, September 05, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Inside Day
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt9FzYdBnVI/AAAAAAAACNg/1yuIj9bFtzU/s400/comp.pngAs noted in my post yesterday, the market was extended and some consolidation was anticipated. Weaker than expected data related to housing (Pending Home Sales drop 12.2%, biggest drop since stat began), jobs (ADP employment slowest in 4 yrs) and the usual loan loss estimates set the stage for some consolidation and sector profit taking. We had a minor bounce into the close as the 50 MA held as support on the first test.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: UWN +7.5%; AVAV +5.5%; ADCT +5.1%; CASY +2.2%; JCP +2.0%; CWST +1.1%... Trading Down: JCG -9.9%; MATK -3.8%; WX -3.6%; SEED -1.9%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: NABI +8.8% (announces continued positive NicVAX Phase 2b data at nine months; data demonstrates NicVAX efficacy); TGA +3.0% (acquires producing fields in Egypt for $59 mln; Assumes operation of eight development leases with 24 producing wells); CYTR +2.3% (Patent application licensed to RXi Pharmaceuticals issuesin Australia with broad claims to expressed RNAi)... Trading Down: TIBX -9.4% (sees Q3 EPS of $0.04-0.05 vs $0.07 consensus, revs of $130-133 mln vs $139.94 mln consensus); ENCY -7.3% (receives written response from FDA on THELIN; did not provide the substantial evidence of effectiveness needed for approval); CAV -4.5% (lowers EPS guidance and revs guidance; co expects loss for Q3); AIRN -3.9% (files preliminary prospectus relating to a proposed underwritten public offering of 14 mln shares of its common stock); ZUMZ -2.8% (Aug same store sales +17.4% vs +10.5% Briefing.com consensus); CPD -2.0% (announces FDA approval to market generic version of Coreg); MDT -1.1% (Treatment with Medtronic's dual chamber minimal ventricular pacing technologies led to 40% reduction in relative risk).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2007 08:11:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt8-V4dBnTI/AAAAAAAACNQ/WGjgBG2_pwI/s400/vmw.pngThe first chart is the daily timeframe for VMW, a watch list stock. Last night I scoped out the pivot points for many watch list stocks and set alerts. Basically, I was looking for stocks that had not done much in the last couple of days because many of my WL stocks were extended. VMW is easy to map out because there is so little to work with.
The green lines are pivot points.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt8-WIdBnUI/AAAAAAAACNY/AoKkm7ufi84/s400/vmw1.pngMy alert went off in pre-market and VMW tagged both PPs in the OR. Price retraced almost 100% from the ORL to the ORH. On the 5 minute timeframe, we see that each retracement stick had a long upper shadow. The fourth bar was inside, trading just below the downsloping 5 period ema, so I decided to short a break of the inside bar as it was conveniently located on the cusp of S2. The preliminary target was the lower PP. After taking a partial. I left my stop at BE as I knew we would consolidate and retrace some at the ORL. Price eventually took out the ORL on a volume spike and carved out a tweezer reversal. Unfortunately or fortunately, as the outcome was in my favor, I missed it as I was busy looking at GES. If I had seen it, I would have closed the position, however, when I did see it, it was too late, so I tightened the stop to $65.50. As price approached the round $ number $64.00, I closed the balance of my position.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2007 07:38:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Dummy Gap Fade - Guess?, Inc. (Public, NYSE:GES)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt8NyYdBnSI/AAAAAAAACNI/RORWXhPY830/s400/ges1.png
GES was a gapper from the Briefing.com list this morning. It capitulated after three WRBs and carved out a tweezer bottom reversal pattern. After a Fib. retracement of 25% from the previous day high to the 3rd bar low, it consolidated for about an hour forming a mini base. Dummy long on break fo NRB at the cusp of the base. Price retraced past 62%, to conveniently tag S2.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2007 04:11:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, NRB, Pivot Point
Tuesday, September 04, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Overbought
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt4bv4dBnPI/AAAAAAAACMw/zaGmrvzTMAo/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt4bwodBnQI/AAAAAAAACM4/i-d6fY4kQpo/s400/comp15.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt4bwodBnRI/AAAAAAAACNA/wStNmU9cNs8/s400/namo.pngShort term overbought and the four day 7% Nasdaq 100 and 5.7% Nasdaq Comp sprint (low to high) raises the specter of at least a near term period of corrective trade. I'm watching the intra-day trendline for guidance on direction, but for the time being, the bulls look solid.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: AVNX +5.3%; MIND +5.2%... Trading Down: FNSR -9.6%; GES -7.2%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CPE +11.4% (signs PHA with ConocoPhillips, Devon); YMI +8.3% (annonces positive preliminary results from Phase I/II lung cancer trial of nimotuzumab combined with radiation); EXEL +3.1% (Co and Dow AgroSciences announce major research collaboration, asset purchase to advance gene discovery and validation); CHK +2.1% (announces 2008-2009 plans; curtails Sep 2007 nat gas production, reaffirms previous production guidance for 2007 & 2008); BRCM +1.5% (wins Federal antitrust appeal against Qualcomm)... Trading Down: AIZ -3.9% (suspends common stock buyback program); HILL -2.3% (announces UK OEM partnership with Viglen); IR -1.2% (to acquire Officine Meccaniche Industriali); NOA -0.8% (announced the cos CFO has resigned).
CAL reported an August consolidated (mainline plus regional) load factor of 85.3%, 2.9 points above the August 2006 consolidated load factor, and a mainline load factor of 85.9%, 2.9 points above the August 2006 mainline load factor. The carrier reported a domestic mainline load factor of 88.0%, 2.5 points above August 2006, and an international mainline load factor of 83.7%, 3.4 points above August 2006. All four were records for August. Domestic load factor was an all time record.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/04/2007 10:59:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Base & Break Trade of the Day - ArthroCare Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ARTC)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt28IodBnLI/AAAAAAAACMQ/vGxsllWB2DQ/s400/artc.png ARTC (from the watch list) took out the base (green line) in early trade and consolidated, setting up a mini B&B pattern.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt28I4dBnMI/AAAAAAAACMY/n5V-C7sNysg/s400/affx.png AFFX (5 min. timeframe) was another B&B on the daily chart. I missed the ideal entry on a break of P1 (thin blue line), but still managed a nice move on a break of R2 off of a shallow base.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt28JIdBnNI/AAAAAAAACMg/nlATw5B2djQ/s400/athr.png ATHR was a gap fill play that failed.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rt2-DIdBnOI/AAAAAAAACMo/uzxtCpybgC0/s400/YHOO.png YHOO was a B&B from a gapper.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/04/2007 04:09:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Gapper, Pivot Point
Sunday, September 02, 2007Watch List Trade of the Day - Cummins Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMI)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RttiKIdBnII/AAAAAAAACL4/RaBqwTmTUcY/s400/cmi.png I sort my watch list by % change after 10:00 and review the charts of the biggest gainers and losers. Nothing on the losing side caught my eye, but on the gainers side, I really liked CMI and DLTR because they had gapped up and were trading above the previous day's range. I ignored some of the other names like FSLR because it was too extended. CAL was also in the top 10 but retracing the early move so I set it aside.
The first chart is a 5 minute timeframe of CMI. I entered long on a break of the ORH following a bullish green hammer.
The second chart is a 15 min. chart of DLTR with a very bullish ascending triangle pattern at the base of the ORH. I exited DLTR when price stalled just below the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH because the BO was taking place on declining volume and I felt it didn't have legs. When price took out morning resistance I re-entered following a NRB.
Both CMI and DLTR were above R2 when I entered the trades. On the daily, both had NRBs on Thursday, (CMI looks like NR7).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RttiKYdBnJI/AAAAAAAACMA/FXeZMbW5lvw/s400/dltr.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RttiKodBnKI/AAAAAAAACMI/xNu-tHV2LNE/s400/cal.png CAL eventually broke out of an ascending triangle pattern and had a nice, quick run up. Notice how it held R2 as support on the retracement and ran up even higher.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/02/2007 09:09:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Ascending_Triangle, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7, NRB
Friday, August 31, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Gap Fade & Bullish Extension
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtehVYdBnHI/AAAAAAAACLw/V3VauuxU5k8/s400/comp.png
Despite the shaky start, all the major U.S. averages extended the rally off Tuesday's lows but only the NAZ was able to establish new recovery highs off the mid-month lows. The advance stalled out in midday ahead of the Fed Chair and key economic data tomorrow with a choppy drift lower into the close leaving just a minor gain to end the session.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/31/2007 01:01:00 AM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Thursday, August 30, 2007Formula Pivot Points - JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:JASO)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rtd6YIdBnEI/AAAAAAAACLY/IC91RkcA9aM/s400/jaso.png A few readers have asked about JASO so I'm going to review pivot points using JASO as an example and then I'll go over one that I traded today - CSCO. The first chart is a 15 min. wide range view of JASO. The green lines are visual PPs that I use to guide my trading. My definition of a PP is a price point where price pivots and changes direction - several pivots at the same price level create a significant PP.
The second chart of JASO is a 5 min. timeframe with my PPs (green lines) and the daily PPs from Esignal (right click on chart and select Formulas, then select Pivots, then select PivotPointAll.efs). I've highlighted these on the chart as P, R1 and R2. The key is to see how price reacts to the different PPs on the chart. In JASO's case, it observed P as support in the OR. The ideal entry would have been B&B with yesterday's late day highs. If that entry was missed, a second entry could have been taken after P1 was tested as support. I would not have entered long beyond that point, because price was already extended after yesterday's momo move. Also, the three WRBs from the second arrow to R2 need to consolidate. Any entry beyond that level needs close management in order to avoid a sudden reversal.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rtd6YYdBnFI/AAAAAAAACLg/LkvP9vRYJMs/s400/jaso1.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rtd6YYdBnGI/AAAAAAAACLo/obKyeU1Y8g4/s400/csco1.png
The last chart is my CSCO trade today. I missed the perfect entry at the lower blue arrow, so I waited until price had taken out the next PP level. I like the way the Esignal PPs are a very close match to my own on this chart. Because of the late entry, I let it ride and waited till it carved out a lower high to exit my position.
Next week I'm going to incorporate the Esignal PPs into my trading to see if I can generate a few more trades in my trading day - small moves between the Ps and Rs/Ss.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/30/2007 09:40:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Pivot Point
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Tiffany & Co. (Public, NYSE:TIF)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtdrL4dBnCI/AAAAAAAACLI/VJhJIyf8vE4/s400/tif.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtdrMIdBnDI/AAAAAAAACLQ/8ZeLCh98Ngk/s400/vip.png Both of my gapper trades were developing cup & handle patterns. As I mentioned recently, since the volatility in the markets started, there have been very few gapper trades that have extended fully for me.
For the C&H pattern I place my Fibonacci extension lines from the morning swing low ( low of the cup portion of the pattern) to the base. My expectation is a 100% extension from the base. Neither TIF nor VIP were up for the task today. TIF extended 62% but did not even manage to tag the ORH and VIP was just too weak to even hold the base so I bailed for a tiny profit.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/30/2007 09:11:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Gapper
Wednesday, August 29, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Short Squeeze
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtYzRYdBnAI/AAAAAAAACK4/AP1urutozUU/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtYzRYdBnBI/AAAAAAAACLA/WS4D8T64yGo/s400/comp15.png
Today's momo move was probably, at least in part due, to short covering following yesterday's gap down and late day swoon. Tomorrow and Friday will probably be very low volume due to the long weekend getaway.
Economic Calendar: Initial Claims and Pre. GDP in pre-market.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SIGM +13.1%; FCEL +9.9%; NOVL +1.8%; UEPS +1.5%... Trading Down: CWTR -13.2%; JAS -5.7% CTRN -5.6%; CHS -4.7%; TIVO -4.2%; PSS -1.5%; HEI -1.0%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: BDCO +2.9% (subsidiary enters into new pipeline transportation agreement); MEMY +2.7% (commences Phase 1 clinical program for R4996/MEM 63908; trial initiation triggers $2.0 mln milestone from Roche); FRPT +2.5% (says ahead of MRAP vehicle protection schedule); VVTV +2.2% (CEO buys 110K shares at $7.98-8.1); CEPH +1.2% (announced FDA grants orphan drug designation to TREANDA, an investigational treatment for chronic lymphocytic leukemia)... Trading Down: SWC -3.1% (signs new PGM supply agreements); GGBM -2.6% (received a staff determination letter from the Nasdaq Stock Market); NETL -2.0% (acquires Cypress's Network search engine assets targeting high-volume desktop Switching); ESV -1.6% (announces additional stock repurchase authorization, of an additional $500 mln; lowers Q3 revs guidance); PH -1.3% (unit faces price-fixing allegations -DJ); GPS -1.1% (announces departure of CFO, Byron Pollitt); MCK -1.1% (Judge certifies class-action case against nation's largest pharmaceutical distributor in alleged pricing scheme); R -1.1% (to acquire Pollock NationaLease in Canada).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/29/2007 11:01:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Watch List - Usual Suspects
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtYXp4dBm_I/AAAAAAAACKw/SDBVFVkQ7Mk/s400/ti3.bmpAs requested by several readers, here is my usual suspects, watch list of stocks:
AAPL, ADSK, AFFX, AKAM, AKS, ALXN, AMGN, AMLN, AMZN, ARTC, BCSI, BIDU, BIIB, CAL, CELG, CMI, CIEN, CROX, CSCO, DLTR, DRYS, EMC, ESRX, FFIV, FSLR, FTEK, FWLT, GME, GRMN, HANS, IBM, INTC, JASO, JCOM, JOYG, KLAC, LRCX, LEH, MDR, MNST, MRVL, NEM, NTAP, NTRI, NVDA, PAYX, RIMM, RVBD, SNDK, TECD, TEVA, VLO, VMW, VSEA
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Paychex, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:PAYX)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtXV74dBm8I/AAAAAAAACKY/M7YukbwLks0/s400/payx.png PAYX tested support in the early going and carved out a bullish doji morning star reversal pattern. I took a partial as price approached yesterday's midday swing high and exited the balance into the close.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtXV8YdBm9I/AAAAAAAACKg/8xB5LEBsh0g/s400/ntri.png NTRI - Break of ORH. I was stopped out but re-entered after it printed a hammer reversal bar at the 38% Fib. retracement of the ORL to the swing high.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtXV8odBm-I/AAAAAAAACKo/pSblGUM8wFI/s400/cfc1.png CFC was on my watch list from last night. I shorted the PP as planned. It started out perfectly, closing near the low of the BO bar, but stalled so I moved my stop textbook style and was stopped out. The only caveat entering this short was the gap up which caused it to lead into the trade with two fairly WRBs. I would have prefered no gap and three WRBs after the break.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/29/2007 04:21:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Morning_Star, Pivot Point
Tuesday, August 28, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtS-jYdBm7I/AAAAAAAACKQ/7AiW7292Xq8/s400/comp.pngBroad based selling across all tech sectors. I expect that we will likely continue in this direction, at least in the early going, tomorrow, notwithstanding any optimistic news.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SMTC +7.6%; DY +5.4%; PEC +1.9%; VSNT +1.9%; BGP +1.4%... Trading Down: NCTY -11.9%; LNUX -5.8%; ARUN -5.1%; DDS -3.7%; APSG -3.4%; ONAV -1.8%; CFI -1.4%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: LEND +5.5% (Lone Star extends tender offer to acquire Accredited); STX +5.1% (raises Q1 EPS and revs guidance, above consensus); MOSY +1.9% (announces a $19.5 mln stock repurchase program); AMGN +1.6% (Court rules that Roche infringes one of Amgen's Erythropoietin patents); OGE +1.6% (announces cost recovery issue jeopardizes plant)... Trading Down: PDLI -16.7% (announces significant strategic and portfolio changes); RIO -1.1% (Brazil court rules against Comp Vale Do Rio in antitrust case -- DJ).
Watch List - 15 min. Charts
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtS-P4dBm5I/AAAAAAAACKA/kCwF1U7tDB0/s400/akam.pngAKAM carved out a lower high and broke its intra-day trend line. I'd like to see it re-tag the trend line and set up a short in the early going tomorrow.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtS-QYdBm6I/AAAAAAAACKI/ACMZ-4fd3G0/s400/cfc.pngCFC carved out an NR7 mini gravestone doji on the daily and looks ready to fall off a cliff. This is a PP trade.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2007 08:29:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ, NR7, Pivot Point
Dummy Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtSBP4dBm2I/AAAAAAAACJo/yqzCSllAI6s/s400/cal.png Yesterday I was a bit ahead of the curve on my CAL trade. Today I got it just right. Yesterday's late day selling on increasing volume was the perfect lead in to the open. Short on a break of yesterday's closing low. I knew we would get some consolidation at $30.00, but it was very orderly. I covered just as price approached $29.10 because the previous bar was hammer-like on very high volume so I didn't want to get caught in a capitulation bounce.
After a lengthy sideways basing period, CAL set up a NR B&B long all the way back up to the $30.00 PP. On a retracement basis, this was very close to 62% Fib. retracement of the last leg down (from $30.90). Small move into the close.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtSBQIdBm3I/AAAAAAAACJw/EP2Ef0Ol41A/s400/affx.png AFFX was my gapper play. I tried to do a sophisticated, OONR7 inspired, Fib. retracement play here. I did a Fib. retracement of the last leg down from yesterday's late day high to today's ORL. AFFX retraced 62% of that move and carved out two stars, the latter of which was red with a long upper shadow. I shorted a break of the second star, took a partial on the third WRB and moved my stop on the balance to BE. I was hoping for a little better on the second half, but it didn't happen.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtSBQIdBm4I/AAAAAAAACJ4/YYb4UnafKzY/s400/bcsi.png BCSI was a NR B&B short with mixed results. The BO bar did not close near its low, which is one of the things I look for when I take these types of setups. It was choppy and had a wide spread at certain intervals so I kept a close watch and played it textbook which generated an early stop out.
Some stocks work better as longs than shorts. Another example that comes to mind is TBSI. I still remember one short I took in TBSI where the spread got as wide as 40 cents.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/28/2007 04:09:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper, Pivot Point
Monday, August 27, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Inside Day
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtOH1IdBm1I/AAAAAAAACJg/3Kgfsaae7IM/s400/comp.pngA low volume inside day could be NR7 (price and volume contraction before expansion).
Today's movement, or lack of, came from lower than avg volume (1342, vs. 2283 avg), with decliners outpacing advancers (1083/1907) and with new highs in line with new lows (68/67).
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SNDA +2.1%... Trading Down: STRM -18.6%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: OPLK +3.9% (announces share repurchase program of $40 mln in common stock); ICON +2.9% (signs direct-to-retail license for its Ocean Pacific and OP brands With Wal-Mart); BNI +2.1% (Berkshire Hathaway buys more Burlington Northern shares - DJ); IKAN +1.4% (lowers Q3 revs guidance below consensus); AA +0.7% (to sell two soft-alloy extrusion plants; close one in Tifton, Ga); CKR +0.7% (announces $100 mln increase in its term loan and provides stock repurchase plan update)... Trading Down: COA -1.7% (suspends dividend).
After the close Friday, NASDAQ released its August short interest data, which was collected on the 15th. The stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float are as follows: USNA 119%; CCRT 79%; CONN 70%; MDTL 68%; JOSB 59%; CORS 55%; HSOA 52%; TRLG 51%; MCHX 50%; PRAA 47%; LEND 46%; ASFI 46% IPSU 45%; GMTN 45%; NETL 44%... The biggest increases in short-interest as a percentage of the float, from mid-July to mid-August, are as follows: FTEK's short interest rose to 33% of the float from 22%; LPHI is up to 32% from 21%; CCRT is up to 79% from 71%; NFLX is up to 31% from 23%; POZN is up to 23% from 15%; GTRC is up to 22% from 14%; WBMD is up to 20% from 13%; DFC is up to 33% from 26%; AACC is up to 18% from 11%; FBCM is up to 20% from 13%... The biggest decreases in short-interest from mid-July to mid- August are as follows: BBND's short interest dropped to 30% from 56%; COMV down to 30% from 45%; PPCO down to 23% from 36%; LAUR down to 17% from 30%; CROX down to 19% from 31%; PARL down to 13% from 25%; MNTA down to 41% from 52%; TRMA down to 19% from 31%; IVAC down to 17% from 27%; GNTA down to 5% from 14%... NYSE short interest was highlighted in my weekend post.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/27/2007 10:25:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Trade of the Day - NutriSystem Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTRI)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtMvp4dBmyI/AAAAAAAACJI/f3W52Qc7U8Q/s400/mrvl.png MRVL was gapper from Friday that did not break the ORL. I took this entry on the open in the hopes that it would extend today, but it did not reach the target. Textbook - stop placement 2 ticks above the previous bar high. Exit when price takes out the previous bar high.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtMvqIdBmzI/AAAAAAAACJQ/kfubMp_U1Hw/s400/ntri.png NTRI is a watch list stock that set up a low risk, dummy base & break entry. It tagged the down sloping 20 EMA on the daily time frame. Nice bounce after all the weakness.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtMvqIdBm0I/AAAAAAAACJY/L279OlNU7Sw/s400/cal.png CAL set up a low risk dummy entry on a break of PP support. The target was $30.00. This one took a long time to get going and I thought I might get stopped out, but I don't move my initial stop unless the BO bar closes near its low, so I managed to stay in for 1.7 R ( lunch money).
In general, today's session was a typical August snooze fest.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/27/2007 04:05:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Pivot Point
CAL Testing Support
CAL is testing support at $30.83. Next PP support if this level doesn't hold is $30.00
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Posted by Jamie at 8/27/2007 01:28:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: CAL
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Sunday, August 26, 2007Base & Break - Biogen Idec Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BIIB)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtHtDYdBmuI/AAAAAAAACIo/FvW4ad8Ka6o/s400/biib3.png The first chart is the daily timeframe. We see that BIIB has been basing at the $60.00 level for a long time. Thursday's NRB (green) was the perfect setup leading into Friday's break. As mentioned in my pre-market post this was one to watch. If you watched too long though, it ran away, so decisive action was required in the early going.
I used the 1 minute chart for my entry. After the OR, BIIB carved out a series of higher lows and I quickly picked a WR green bar as my base because the open was a bit choppy. I used a buy stop order and set my stop just below the lower blue line.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtHtDodBmvI/AAAAAAAACIw/rjZMe1WVdj4/s400/biib.png The next chart is the expanded view of the 1 minute timeframe, which shows how quickly price took flight once the initial choppiness was out of the way.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtHtDodBmwI/AAAAAAAACI4/67hs0iEmVfw/s400/biib1.png The last chart is the 15 minute timeframe. After a vertical move and three WRBs, I took a partial and tightened my stop a few pennies below the third WRB.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtHtD4dBmxI/AAAAAAAACJA/qKKHLivCM1Y/s400/biib2.png
B&B patterns at pivot point resistance often result in vertical moves. In general, the longer the basing period, the better the BO. If you're not comfortable trading the open, you can try paper trading these at first or just entering with very small size until you develop a good feel for the pattern and the BO.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/26/2007 05:10:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Pivot Point
Saturday, August 25, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Trendline Breach - Bullish Bias Intact
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtDU8odBmpI/AAAAAAAACIA/4JNRu7sBbpQ/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtDU84dBmqI/AAAAAAAACII/iHJVOWmmIMs/s400/compweek.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtDU84dBmrI/AAAAAAAACIQ/QBjcYWUVz6M/s400/namo.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtDU9IdBmsI/AAAAAAAACIY/cEYiFXoHQJ0/s400/vxn.png
The fear factor as measured by the VXN is clearly well off of last Thursday's multi-year high and the bulls are temporarily back in control with a trendline breach. We are back in the overbought zone and month-end is just a heart beat away. A pullback in the early part of next week would help alleviate the extended short term technicals and allow a bit of room ahead of the end/start of the month positive bias. Don't want to get ahead of myself but the Fed move last Friday certainly has had a big impact in dissipating the fear factor. We've had very little in the way of pullbacks all week and the weekly chart looks like a bear trap.
Stock over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: BCSI +51, ACH +40%, WX +31%, TNH +29%, BTM +29%, BRP +29%, VMW +28%, TBSI +27%, RDYN +27%, HDNG +26%, IDP +26%, FWLT +26%, NEON +26%, ANTP +25%, SNCR +25%, NM +25%, CALM +25%, IVN +25%, FMT +24%, DRYS +24%, AXR +24%, VSEC +24%, LNDC +24%, BYI +24%, MEA +24%, GME +24%, AVCI +23%, ASIA +23%, VII +23%, LGCY +23%, MENT +21%, GTI +21%, TCHC +21%, DFC +21%, ANSV +21%, CKSW +20%
Stock over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: SNIC -25%, TWB -25% UNG -20%, GMTN -19%, FLML -19%, SBP -18%, ETEL -17%, CSUN -16%, PLCE -15%, GMET -14%, VC -14%, TDSC -14%, DEEP -14%, BIOF -14%, GSAT -14%, CCBL -13%, TMA -13%, TWP -13%, BECN -13%, TMTAD -13%, MNCP -12%, JRN -12%, SR -12%, LAD -12%, ZGEN -12%, OREX -12%, WNS -12%, OPLK -11%, JAV -11%, ICTG -11%, AAUK -11%, KNSY -11%
Companies reporting earnings the week of Aug 27th-31sth include: Monday: SNDA Tuesday: CMED, COCO, SAFM, TUES, ANEN, APSG, BGP, DY, MCRS, PEC, SMTC, LNUX, NCTY... Wednesday: BIG, BWS, CYBX, DLTR, ENER, FRED, JOYG, LAYN, WSM, CHS, CTRN, CWTR, FCEL, GEF, HEI, JAS, UEPS, NOVL, PSS, SIGM, and TIVO... Thursday: CIEN, CONN, DLM, FRE, GCO, HRB, KIRK, TIF, UNFI, VIP, ZLC, CPWM, CMOS, DLIA, DELL, ESL, LTXX, OVTI, OTEX, RSTO, SEAC, and WIND... Friday: No companies are scheduled to report.
Earlier this week NYSE released its August short interest data, which was collected on the 15th. The stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float are as follows: AXR 103%; NFI 93%; BZH 73%; TOA 73%; HOV 63%; FED 60%; MWA 60%; IMB 60%; BHS 51%; TWP 51%; WCI 48%; DSL 48%; MTH 47%; HEI 45%; GDP 44%... The biggest increases in short-interest as a percentage of the float, from mid-July to mid-August, are as follows: NFI's short interest rose to 93% of the float from 67%; BZH is up to 73% from 57%; RAS up to 31% from 17%; ACA up to 21% from 10%; GDP up to 44% from 33%; RDN up to 18% from 8%; RWT up to 21% from 10%; AFN up to 26% from 16%; MTG up to 32% from 21%; FED up to 60% from 50%... The biggest decreases in short-interest from mid-July to mid- August are as follows: CDL's short interest dropped to 11% from 62%; XJT down to 15% from 33%; TSS down to 11% from 26%; TIE down to 9% form 21%; UA down to 26% from 38%; PPP down to 5% from 16%; TLB down to 38% from 47%; DJO down to 11% from 20%; AXR down to 103% from 112%; EYE down to 11% from 19%... This information is reported on a monthly basis. Not surprisingly, some of the biggest increases took place in stocks related to the mortgage/housing markets... NASDAQ short interest data for August does not appear to be compiled out yet.
Data courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 8/25/2007 09:09:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RtDy8YdBmtI/AAAAAAAACIg/09NpJBuU9_I/s400/Aislin1.jpg
Aislin - Montreal Gazette August 22, 2007
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Posted by Jamie at 8/25/2007 08:25:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Entertainment
Friday, August 24, 2007Trade of the Day
Despite the slow start, markets were surprisingly strong for a late summer Friday. BIIB was strong from the open - B&B at PP - a big winner for me today. QCOM was choppy but managed a small gain. AMLN was NG. I took a position in the afternoon off of two inside bars (15 min.) which was stopped out for a small loss. NTAP was good for a low risk entry on the 5 min. No gappers for me today.
I'll post some charts over the weekend. Have a good one!
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Posted by Jamie at 8/24/2007 04:20:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, August 23, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Trendline Holds as Resistance
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rs5Q22i51lI/AAAAAAAACH4/_ANUhKohTQI/s400/comp.png
The CFC $2 bln cash injection was optimistic going into the session but quickly turned into a fade. Very choppy trade with a minor upside was seen during the afternoon. We are facing the potential end of the first thrust off the Aug low amid a loss of momentum - bearish engulfing pattern. However, in order to realize this potential scenario look for today's early highs to hold as resistance with sustained trade under the afternoon lows developing.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: NDSN +5.6%; MENT +4.9%; ARO +3.1%; ZINC +1.4%; GPS +1.2%... Trading Down: MRVL -8.1%; SCSC -6.8%; HIBB -5.9%; QADI -4.4%; BEBE -1.0%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: NFI +2.8% (notes in an 8-K co entered into a Waiver Agreement with Wachovia Bank); WABC +2.3% (announces stock repurchase plan for up to 2 mln shares); HLF +1.9% (increases its share repurchase program to $450 mln); SAI +1.2% (wins GSA alliant IDIQ contract); KIRK+1.0% (notes in a 13D they cut Kirkland stake to 13%)... Trading Down: SNIC -14.4% (reports Q1 prelim revs below consensus; sees Q2 revs below consensus); XRM -2.7% (completes restatement of recent financial results; files amended annual and quarterly reports With SEC).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/23/2007 11:23:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - GameStop Corp. (Public, NYSE:GME)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rs4rPWi51jI/AAAAAAAACHo/T5r2Jfb6blw/s400/gme.png As I pointed out in the pre-market post, GME was gapping up on high volume due to earnings and guidance. The pre-market high was $48.00 and when it set up a B&B long, I used the PM high as my target because I knew this would at least be a resistance point. It came within 10 cents of the target and then pulled back so I exited the trade. Quite choppy which is typical for NYSE stocks.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rs4rPWi51kI/AAAAAAAACHw/8NCumq_9yic/s400/joyg.png My beloved JOYG didn't extend. The market started to pull back shortly after my entry and the trade was doomed so I exited before being stopped out.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/23/2007 08:46:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break
Pivot Point Trade - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rs4ZeWi51fI/AAAAAAAACHI/wtkU80tVvKE/s400/amgn2.png The first chart is the wide range 15 min. timeframe highlighting the pivot point which has been tagged several times at $50.00
As mentioned in the edit portion of the pre-market post, AMGN was on the move in early trade.
I waited till price broke the PP in close proximity of the ascending 5 period ema. A very low risk dummy entry on the 5 minute below. It was slow at first but then it accelerated into a vertical move typical of PP breakouts. I exited as price approached the round $ number $51.00.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rs4Zemi51gI/AAAAAAAACHQ/G2-iBIqRyf8/s400/amgn1.png The third AMGN chart shows that we are still on track for the $52.00 PP target after a hammer reversal last Friday and today's bullish engulfing bar.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rs4Ze2i51hI/AAAAAAAACHY/c2nbo8IlqLc/s400/amgn.png The NTAP chart below is just a quick scalp into the close but everything lined up so perfectly that I couldn't resist. A tweezer bottom reversal at the 38% Fib. retracement of the last leg up with a bullish green hammer as a trigger bar.
NTAP is still on track for a gap fill.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rs4Ze2i51iI/AAAAAAAACHg/WGPvPeIwYug/s400/NTAP.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/23/2007 07:29:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Pivot Point
Wednesday, August 22, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Approaching Trendline Resistance
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rszvh2i51dI/AAAAAAAACG4/1Hc8Ok1Hyjg/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RszviGi51eI/AAAAAAAACHA/SW0DB96liWQ/s400/namo.pngApproaching trend line resistance and overbought levels. I know that a lot of traders delayed their vacations during the correction, but this low volume is a real concern. It implies that this rally is a dead cat bounce. We'll soon see.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: EJ +8.8%; LTD +5.6%; ALOT +5.0%; PVH +4.1%; JDSU +3.3%; MW +3.2%; VVTV +2.9%; BLOG +2.4%... Trading Down: INTU -2.9%; GYMB -2.7%; VRGY -1.7%; GNK -1.6%; ZUMZ -1.4%; SNPS -1.3%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CFC +21.2% (receives $2 bln strategic equity investment from Bank Of America); IMH +10.3% (announces reduction of workforce); IDGR +7.1% (Special Committee engages Robert W. Baird as financial advisor for strategic review); ATSI +5.4.% (expands open pivot heart valve offerings); WAVE +4.8% (Director buys 552K shares at $6.6-7); NFLD +4.2% (announces SEC Staff completes investigation and does not intend to recommend any enforcement action against the Co); VICL +2.6% (Multiple NIH Phase 2 HIV vaccine trials using Vical's technology produce encouraging results); CLZR +2.0% (expands share buyback program; co now authorized to repurchase up to 2.3 mln shares); CME +1.4% (Horizon Cash Mgmt: No contact from CME On Sentinel assets -- DJ); FLE +1.0% (closes gold shield plant in Fontana, California)... Trading Down: RMBS -1.3% (announces Nasdaq Board grants co extension for continued listing; announces it receives European Commission statement of objections); HOLX +1.3% (Breast screening study finds superior performance of Selenia direct digital mammography over film mammography); NOV +1.1% (announces 2-for-1 stock split).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/22/2007 10:21:00 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Watch List Trades - NTAP, JOYG, SEPR
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RszhbGi51XI/AAAAAAAACGI/DB6bzhZqSr0/s400/NTAP1.png NTAP broke out of a multi day triangle pattern on the gap open. I took an early entry on the 1 minute chart above. I took a partial at the round $ number and weaved in and out during the course of the day expecting an extension of the ORH. I went long after each hammer bar. The first attempt failed, but the second off of a higher low, succeeded.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RszhbWi51YI/AAAAAAAACGQ/QTCfmPkVm5E/s400/NTAP.png There's still room for another trade as I expect a gap fill as outlined below.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rszhb2i51ZI/AAAAAAAACGY/Ua3ALbn86Dc/s400/NTAP2.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rszhb2i51aI/AAAAAAAACGg/q4Gf7AWVHzY/s400/joyg.png JOYG was NR7 off of the 5 minute timeframe.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RszhcWi51bI/AAAAAAAACGo/kAFuUllUcV8/s400/sepr.png SEPR had a perfect base but I didn't take the trade because of the wide stop. I knew I would be too busy with NTAP on the open.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RszkDmi51cI/AAAAAAAACGw/UNFbbc-eC_s/s400/akam.png This is a wide range view of AKAM 15 min. - basing at the PP. Could be a trade here for tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/22/2007 09:20:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Breakout, NR7, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - DryShips Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DRYS)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsyXYGi51WI/AAAAAAAACGA/9y38gNOoZQc/s400/drys.png Seems like a while since I had such a momo extension from a gapper long. I highlighted DRYS in blue in the pre-market post as this is also a watch list stock for me. I waited what seemed like an eternity for the this cup & handle pattern to develop, but it was worth the wait.
Typical Trader-X style, no hurry - dummy setup. I used a combination of PPs (blue lines) and the Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH as my guides. I took a partial at the daily pivot and closed the position as price approached resistance.
Notice how volume drys up in the handle portion of the pattern and ramps up on the BO. Price/vol. contraction before expansion. Sweet!
Lots of nice trades off the WL discussed in comments last night. I'll post a few later tonight.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/22/2007 04:01:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point, Trader-X
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Tuesday, August 21, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Bounce
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsuszWi51UI/AAAAAAAACFw/QNMVrI150Nk/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rsusz2i51VI/AAAAAAAACF4/7HR8yoRkLXY/s400/qqqq.pngNASDAQ performed better than DOW and S&P today, but as highlighted above on the Qs, we are running into PP resistance.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: DRYS
+6.0% CALL +3.2%; WLSN +3.0%... Trading Down: EFUT -11.2%; CLZR -3.8%; JKHY -3.0%; MDT -2.0%; ACS -1.9%; PBY -1.3%; ADI -1.2%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: BYI +13.1% (guides FY07 revs in-line; guides FY07 EPS; guides FY08 EPS and revs above consensus); NBIX +7.4% (has received notification that the U.S. (FDA) has accepted the Co's resubmission of its New Drug Application); TRB +3.7% (shareholders approve merger agreement); LMIA +1.9% (shareholders approve merger agreement); GETI +1.8% (reports receipt of NASDAQ staff determination letter); JWN +1.1% (announces $1.5 bln share repurchase program)... Trading Down: MOVI -9.7% (receives notices from NASDAQ); KOPN -3.1% (receives expected notice from Nasdaq due to delay in filing Form 10-Q); DAL -3.0% (announces it has elected Richard Anderson to serve as the co's CEO); MGM -1.7% (announces Jim Murren has been promoted to the role of President and Chief Operating Officer); MTEX -1.0% (Founder Sam Caster resigns as CEO, remains as Chairman).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/21/2007 11:25:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Base & Break - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RstRXmi51QI/AAAAAAAACFQ/8XIZSoDs-ho/s400/nvda.png NVDA is a watchlist stock. In the early going it carved out a higher low and held support of its rising 50 MA. It slowly moved towards its PP and set up a perfect dummy base & break. In the early afternoon it carved out a star with a long upper shadow followed by an inside spinning top, so I tightened my stop.
CAL - Short Squeeze
Initially I was looking for CAL to set up as a short following yesterday's NRB, but it started moving up at a fairly good clip. Oil prices were weak so I waited for it to consolidate and I jumped in. I took a partial at $30.00 (PP) when price started to retrace quickly.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RstRYGi51RI/AAAAAAAACFY/UswrGBNCrkM/s400/cal.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RstRYWi51SI/AAAAAAAACFg/s-ZNoDiKkk4/s400/NTAP.png NTAP was a dummy long off of two NR inside bars. I was hoping it could finally break this consolidation triangle, but it failed. However, it did generate a higher low late in the session and could move tomorrow, so keep it on the watchlist.
The only caveat is that we didn't get a complete gap fill after last Thursday gap up. The lower blue line marks the 100% fill. If it doesn't break up, it might break down, either way, there's a nice trade coming up. If it breaks up, I'm looking for a gap fill on the daily at $28.00.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RstRYmi51TI/AAAAAAAACFo/kdiVEXoWp6I/s400/NTAP1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/21/2007 04:51:00 PM 24 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Pivot Point, Squeeze
Monday, August 20, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - NR Inside Day (Snooze fest)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rsphh2i51OI/AAAAAAAACFA/RIwpQyYeVco/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsphiGi51PI/AAAAAAAACFI/vlUveOkKLzY/s400/namo.pngWill the late day mini sprint carryover into tomorrow? Hope so, because today's session was a real snooze.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: PERY +3.4%... Trading Down: OPLK -9.8%; KONG -5.3%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CAPA +4.1% (notes in a 13D filing that Vector Capital has a 9.5% stake of the co, and may have an interest in buying the co); LSI +3.7% (to sell mobility products business to Infineon for $450 mln; co also authorized new $500 mln stock repurchase program); GGBM +3.4% (announces contract for deployment of proprietary wireless broadband technology in Czech Republic); ZUMZ +2.6% (co will replace CT Communications (CTCI) in the S&P SmallCap 600); FSYS +2.1% (Solutions delays Q2 2007 Form 10-Q filing); TGT +0.9% (continues to see August comps full month comparable same store sales to increase in the range of 4-6%)... Trading Down: LEND-8.2% (Lone Star answers Accredited's complaint and files counterclaims in Delaware Court); SNIC -2.6% (receives notice from NASDAQ due to inability to timely file Form 10-Q); CE -1.8% (sells films business of AT Plastics to BPI); TEN -1.5% (acquires mobile emissions business of Combustion Components Associates); CALL -1.4% (CEO is leaving the co; CFO has become interim CEO); CAMD -1.2% (Co and MagnaChip ink strategic agreement); MXGL -1.0% (files $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/20/2007 11:51:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Narrow Range Trading Day - Small Moves and Missed Trades
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsolsWi51JI/AAAAAAAACEY/mquanjVFpqI/s400/unh.png UNH set up a nice long on the 5 minute but failed - lack of volume on the break. Shorting the failure would have generated a nice reward.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsolsWi51KI/AAAAAAAACEg/tPudeanmL-Y/s400/NTAP.png NTAP looked like it was just about to break the trendline and popped up, retracing 62% of the move from the ORH. It carved out two stars with upper shadows and set up a dummy short. Was hoping for further weakness after lunch, but it decided to bounce instead.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rsolsmi51LI/AAAAAAAACEo/EtE0n5aXKow/s400/adsk.png ADSK broke out of a PP base but printed a series of offsets before finally extending out of a B&B later in the day.http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rsols2i51MI/AAAAAAAACEw/QsZzLXMWa18/s400/ALXN.png I missed the initial base breakout on ALXN (5 min.), but managed to get in on the second leg up after consolidation.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rsols2i51NI/AAAAAAAACE4/ZhuyQPjETyg/s400/ebay.png I was hoping for a wider retracement on EBAY out of this NR consolidation, but it failed and I was stopped out for a tiny gain.
Missed Gapper Trades
FSLR and UNG were two of the more promising gappers from the Briefing.com list this morning. In the early going they were not setting up exactly as I'd hoped so I passed. Should have stuck with them because eventually, they both came through with nice dummy setups.
They both broke too soon - 5 period ema too far away on the 15 min. timeframe. FSLR failed to extend to the 38% extension in the first run, but retraced and set up a low risk long at the base of the morning swing high.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsojzWi51HI/AAAAAAAACEI/nUx9EiQcsm0/s400/FSLR.png UNG consolidated midway between the ORL and the Fib. ext. target setting a nice dummy short.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rsojzmi51II/AAAAAAAACEQ/bf9MK8LJGpU/s400/ung.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/20/2007 07:27:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Saturday, August 18, 2007Every Chart Tells a Story - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)
Yesterday's trading session was somewhat foiled by the FED intervention. What I mean by that is that we had a nice relief rally coming off of Thursday's lows and it looked like it was set to continue higher into Friday. The fed intervention resulted in a huge gap up and all those who started accumulating Thursday afternoon were well positioned for some huge profit taking on Friday's open.
That became quite clear shortly after the open as almost all my charts were taking on the same pattern - gap fade.
So basically I had to look at story stocks - gap, earnings, etc. I took a small long position in ADSK (break of 4/15) on earnings and an upgrade and started looking at Thursday's gapper list for some continuation plays.
AMGN seemed like a good candidate because it was trading at multi-year lows. When I first looked at the chart, it had breached the prior day's pivot low, but was hovering in the PP area and it was unclear whether it would develop as a long or a short.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rscncmi51DI/AAAAAAAACDo/Iivd-pAfrCY/s400/amgn.pngI looked at the monthly timeframe to get a better idea of long-term S/R. The key PP at $52.00 had been lost and now it was hanging on to dear life at $48.50, after which there was nothing much in the way of support until $42.00.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RscndGi51EI/AAAAAAAACDw/0w40SKRJ-1w/s400/amgn1.png In there early going, the daily chart was printing a WR red bar and the whole scenario looked rather hopeless. EOD tells a very different story - a bullish green hammer reversal stick. But I'm getting ahead of myself.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RscndGi51FI/AAAAAAAACD4/9SZ2LYjtVEI/s400/amgn2.png A quick look at the lower timeframes indicated that AMGN was carving out a shallow base. Sometimes when I'm only focused on the longer timeframe -15 min., there's a fine line between continuation and reversal and that's why I use multiple timeframes to get a more complete picture.
From the 1 minute chart below, we see a nice shallow base. price breaks the base (green line) and comes back in for a retest. As price moves back out of the base, I enter long. Before entering long, I check yesterday's intraday price pivots and plan to take a partial at $49.40 because it was Thursday's ORL and served as resistance into the noon hour.
After a 38% retracement from the $49.40 PP, AMGN carves out a bullish W pattern with a higher low on the second V and I decide to re-enter full size on a break of the PP. My target is met shortly after as price rallies into the upper PP ( daily resistance from Thurs. and Friday's ORH.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RscndWi51GI/AAAAAAAACEA/MI0zbQcAzlM/s400/amgn3.png
As you can see from the 15 min. and daily charts, AMGN is basing and ready to 1. fill the gap, and 2. possibly rally back up to the $52.00 PP. Keep it on the watch list for next week.
Trading has been challenging over the last few weeks and will likely become increasingly so until the current focus on credit becomes less pressing. A good way to minimize stop outs and scratches is to focus on well-defined setups. AMGN is a good example. Remember that price has a memory. A PP from yesterday or from the past will be a trigger point for either consolidation, reversal, retracement, continuation, etc. What I mean is that even if you missed the break of the initial base, you could have entered on the break of the PP midway in the move for a nice profit. Don't just focus on today's price action in isolation, look at today's price action in context of yesterday's and beyond as required by the range of price and volume expansion.
Okay, enough preaching, have a good weekend!
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Posted by Jamie at 8/18/2007 12:37:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, Pivot Point
Thursday, August 16, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Reversal Afoot?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsTqNmi51BI/AAAAAAAACDY/bM6O4JOyAnM/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsTqNmi51CI/AAAAAAAACDg/XnH09TXA5m0/s400/comp15.png
It started off just like usual - very weak - and then we had one offset after another. It was very difficult to know where we were heading until we took out the early swing low. Lunch finally brought some relief and the late day rally on high volume was especially optimistic. With today's lows the correction reached 12% from the July highs. We haven't had a significant correction in a long time, so I guess we were overdue.
Tomorrow is options expiration. However, with the late day surge, it might be a little more interesting than the usual NR snooze fest.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ARAY +10.7%; RDEN +1.6%; HPQ +0.22... Trading Down: ZIGO -13.5%; KSS -4.0%; RRGB -1.8%; HRAY -1.8%; ADSK -1.6%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: RARE +33.6% (Darden Restaurants announces tender offer to purchase RARE Hospitality for $38.15 per share; DRI expects transaction to be neutral to earnings in FY08); SYNX +19.2% (announces systems integration contract for NYC Transit Facility); SHRP +10.4% (comments on media reports); WFMI +7.6% (Court denies FTC's request for preliminary injunction related to Whole Foods Market and Wild Oats Markets proposed merger); ASTI +5.2% (Hydro makes follow on investment in ascent solar); ETFC +4.7% (issues supplemental portfolio disclosure); DFR +3.8% (Triarc provides update on sale of controlling interest in Deerfield & Company LLC); LUK +2.5% (will replace KeySpan in the S&P 500; Life Time Fitness will replace Leucadia in the S&P MidCap 400); BSX +1.3% (to explore sale of cardiac surgery and vascular surgery units); PH +1.0% (announces $500 mln accelerated share repurchase, 21.2% increase in dividend rate, and three-for-two stock split)... Trading Down: BDC -3.2% (announces $100 mln share repurchase authorization); EZPW -2.0% (acquires 20 store Mexico pawnshop chain); CAB -1.9% (to purchase S.I.R Warehouse Sports Store); DELL -1.3% (says independent investigation completed; will restate financials); CDNS -1.0% (acquires Clear Shape Technologies).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2007 08:19:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AKAM)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsSw9Wi51AI/AAAAAAAACDQ/vtFDgJykVjA/s400/akam1.png Textbook dummy short with some offsets to make it a little more suspenseful.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2007 04:15:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper
Wednesday, August 15, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Loss of 200 DMA
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsOq62i507I/AAAAAAAACCo/18lUm65MMsc/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsOq7Wi508I/AAAAAAAACCw/LYn0e42ymxA/s400/comp15.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsOq7mi509I/AAAAAAAACC4/7N_fZuLaIBk/s400/namo.pngThe first chart is the NASDAQ daily which has lots of technical info. Click on the chart to enlarge the view.
Basically, we gapped lower on the open and tried to recover the 200 MA in the early part of the session. This was followed by a swoon back down and a second lower high in early afternoon, after which the bears took over in earnest. We closed at the session lows in line with a significant PP which was in play on and off from Nov. 06 - Mar 07.
We have retraced more than 62% of the March - July rally and will, no doubt, retrace 100%. However, the lower low creates a new trendline (black line) and we are getting quite extended from that trendline and the lower MAs. So technically we should get some relief either through consolidation, or a bounce towards the trendline.
Below are two watch list stocks, and the point I want to make here is that most of my watch list stocks look like MDR, basing at or near a significant PP and could break down anytime. The last chart is AMLN which I highlighted last night. A nice B&B trade if you took it in the morning before it too, succumbed to weakness in the afternoon.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsOq7mi50-I/AAAAAAAACDA/nU3ZO-HrZ7Y/s400/mdr.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsOq72i50_I/AAAAAAAACDI/fjANBfcQFko/s400/amln.png
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: NTAP +5.4%; CAI +1.7%; IMOS +1.3%; PETM +1.1%... Trading Down: CGNX -7.7%; LMRA -1.6%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: BZH +4.5% (files form 8-K containing financial statements); KOSN +3.7% (files $75 mln mixed shelf offering - S-3); PNFP +3.1% (announces the in-market acquisition of Mid-America Bancshares; co sees as accretive to earnings in the first 12 months); AMFI +2.8% (names Donald Wilson President and COO); USTR +2.6% (increases stock repurchase authorization; authorizes an additional $200 mln); HOC +2.6% (reports Navajo refinery unit back online); UIC +2.1% (wins $8.6 mln order from Royal Australian Navy); XXIA +1.9% (announces authorization to repurchase up to $50 mln of common stock); SPWR +1.9% (signs agreement with SMA Technologie AG); VLTR +1.6% (announces appointment of Mike Burns as Vice President and CFO, to succeed founder Greg Hildebrand)... Trading Down: UTSI -1.8% (receives Nasdaq notification related to late filing of its Form 10-Q for Q2); IIG -1.1% (notes in an 8-K the Superior Court of California entered an order, without explanation, denying the request for stay of the Court's order); AMGN -1.0% (restructures due to lower Aranesp revs; cuts FY07 EPS to $4.13-4.23).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2007 09:21:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, NASDAQ, Pivot Point
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsNkrco6QaI/AAAAAAAACCI/22muLXC5nkQ/s400/cal.png The first chart is the daily timframe for CAL. I didn't put this one on the watchlist last night because I thought it had time before the next test of the PP. The confirmed hanging man obviously didn't want to wait.
Needless to say I wasn't focused on CAL this morning until I noticed on my quote screen that it was trading down almost one point, I missed the perfect dummy entry off of two NR inside bars, so I had to wait for the next consolidation. I took a partial as price came into the $30.00 PP support level and moved my stop to breakeven. I was hoping that it would not bounce too much because of the late entry. After what seemed like a never ending NR consolidation, CAL finally broke down and set off on a momo move to the downside on increasing volume.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsNkrso6QbI/AAAAAAAACCQ/7ua4m3KR0eA/s400/cal1.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsNqB8o6QdI/AAAAAAAACCg/EKNTUVQ_TQ8/s400/cfc2.png
Judging from what I read on Briefing.com, I have CNBC to thank for all this CFC angst. A gap down on a Merrill downgrade, followed by a gap fill, followed by two inside bars and the downsloping 20 EMA acting as strong resistance. Partial at the round $ number (ORH). Price moved sharply lower in mid afternoon and I noticed what looked like a tweezer bottom reversal taking shape after a volume spike, so I tightened the stop.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2007 04:21:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Pivot Point
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsJ_mso6QZI/AAAAAAAACCA/sKc4ZrLXw4k/s400/comp.pngA generally positive open saw no follow through as more credit worries set the tone for the session. Selling picked up in the afternoon to close near the lows. In addition, sluggish volume, made for a rather challenging day trading session.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2007 12:21:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Tuesday, August 14, 2007Watch List
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsJanMo6QYI/AAAAAAAACB4/Xm4KajcdykI/s400/tti.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsJY8Mo6QWI/AAAAAAAACBo/k_9WXrFQSMA/s400/nvda.png TTI and NVDA watch list trades. If TTI carves out a higher low, it could attempt a trendline break. NVDA still has good volume but today it filled the gap, so I suspect it will consolidate.
B&B dailies for tomorrow AKAM short (target $30.00) and BIIB long (next major resistance $63.00). A few stocks coming back to their PPs after BO long and retracement - AMLN, PAYX.
Also watching NTAP but may take a little time to develop.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/14/2007 09:36:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Countrywide Financial Corporation (Public, NYSE:CFC)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsIPP8o6QVI/AAAAAAAACBg/gCzLveQ0LOQ/s400/cfc1.png CFC is a gapper that I mentioned on Friday. Friday was a fade which I didn't touch, but it showed up on the Briefing gapper list again. The first bar was WR and tested mid-range support from Friday. The next two bars were NR although not entirely, inside, they were in close proximity to the downsloping 5 period ema. The 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL lined up perfectly with Friday's ORL, so when everything is aligned, I have to take the trade.
Also traded TTI and NVDA again today. JOYG too choppy.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/14/2007 04:20:00 PM 19 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Monday, August 13, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Price and Volume Contraction
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsEH_Mo6QUI/AAAAAAAACBY/65Q11SpKsl4/s400/comp.pngWe gapped into resistance from Friday's high and then it was a slow fade.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: STEC +7.6%; NTO +5.4%; PTEK +4.2%; ACOR +3.1%; CPII +2.7%; EXM +2.4%; NTES +2.0%;... Trading Down: NPLA -20.6%; FACE -17.4%; ANSW -16.6%; ARII -8.0%; CNTF -7.6%; JMBA -6.8%; BDCO -3.5%; DV -3.4%; KCAP -2.4%; DTE -2.3%; HRBN -1.6%; SDXC -1.4%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CBAK +29.2% (signs letter of intent with Hewlett Packard); KBX +17.1% (lowers Q2 EPS below consensus); NLS +3.8% (announces Gregg Hammann to step down as CEO); ABG +3.2% (authorizes 2 mln share repurchase program); CLMS +2.4% (announces COO and CFO Patrick Dudasik to retire in 2008); GETI +2.1% announces delay in filing 10-Q and postponement of earnings call); CR +2.0% (acquires Mobile Rugged Business of Kontron, America; co sees acquisition will be neutral to earnings in 2007)... Trading Down: ETEL -7.0% (announces termination of client program and lowers Q3 and FY07 ADS guidance below consensus; lowers Q3 and FY07 revs guidance); SRDX -3.1% (acquires BioFX Laboratories); HIBB -1.5% (lowers Q2 EPS below consensus); CHH -1.5% (enters into master franchising agreement in Ireland with Kasterlee Limited); SSW -1.2% (to offer 4.5 mln common shares); VRSN -1.3% (announces a $1.1 bln convertible notes offering).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/13/2007 09:38:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Lacklustre Day
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsC_bso6QQI/AAAAAAAACA4/00HZ1abaUbM/s400/bx.png BX was a gapper from Briefing's list this morning. After retracing 32% of the move from the previous day low to the ORH, it set up a dummy mini B&B long with support from the rising 5 period ema. I was stopped out on the next bar. Not sure if this is due to the specialist taking out all the stops before moving price higher or if it was due to the earnings conference call. Either way, I don't like specialists and I wish there were no conference calls during regular trading hours.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsC_b8o6QRI/AAAAAAAACBA/nRwG6Y0uBdA/s400/tti.png TTI gapped down about a week and half ago. I traded it short on the gap day and kept it on my watch list. After gapping up into its downsloping intraday trendline, it reversed. A fairly NR three bar consolidation, set up a nice shorting opp. My target was the morning swing high from the gap down day which you can see on the chart below. I took a partial at PP support and closed the position as price approached the target.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsC_cMo6QSI/AAAAAAAACBI/ndbvGIktwdI/s400/tti1.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RsC_cMo6QTI/AAAAAAAACBQ/kqzkTJNdUz4/s400/nvda.png NVDA was a two day B&B pattern which stalled just below the ORH. The better trade on NVDA would have been a long entry after NVDA tested intraday support at this morning's swing low.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/13/2007 04:28:00 PM 17 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Sunday, August 12, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Markets in Distress Over Steep Credit Curve
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rr8yR8o6QPI/AAAAAAAACAw/09ecN6xWxss/s400/compweekly.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rr8wd8o6QLI/AAAAAAAACAQ/Kq_SWr12rkw/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rr8we8o6QMI/AAAAAAAACAY/56pTMVmepzs/s400/comp15.pngThe markets are extremely stressed out as anyone can see from the above charts. Be aware of the potential for manipulation, especially in small caps. It's definitely not an ideal time to be taking on new swing positions, but if you must, sizing reductions will help the pain on stop outs due to high volatility. Volatility readings, which measure fear and uncertainty, soared to new multi-year highs this week.
The first chart is the weekly timeframe for the NASDAQ and as you can see we've added 34 pts. or 1.3% on the week, and in so doing, we've come back up to the cusp of the accelerated trend line. Still extreme volume levels, wide upper shadows on the candlesticks, and the bearish MACD crossover imply further weakness to come. The oversold posture was worked off midweek and is still holding the neutral zone.
The only optimistic scenario at this point, would be a retest of the broken trendline on the daily timeframe. The door is still open to that possibility if we can hold a higher low on the retest of the 200 DMA as we did on Friday. New subprime worries will hold sway until the marketplace gets a handle on the extent of the problem so I'm taking it one day at a time and keeping my eye on the 15 minute timeframe intraday to guide my trading decisions.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/12/2007 11:48:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Saturday, August 11, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (Public, NASDAQ:LEND)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rr3Qzso6QHI/AAAAAAAAB_w/hsSeGepjHb4/s400/lend.png Lots of technical problems yesterday and I almost gave up, but I hate to be sidelined from trading. Basically, my Esignal could not load charts efficiently. The only charts I could access easily were the ones I had viewed in pre-market. That pretty much limited me to the Briefing.com gapper list.
The first chart is the 15 minute chart of LEND which gapped up on news. At first it looked like a fade but LEND is not shortable through IB, so it's usually a waste of time. However, when I saw two NR inside bars at support of the rising 5 period ema, I saw $ signs. This is one of my favorite patterns ( similar to one of Trader-X's old bread and butter setups).
I took a dummy long on a break of the two bar base and booked a partial as price approached the ORH. I closed my position at PP resistance (blue line) which was very close to the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day to the ORH.
After a 50% retracement LEND carved out a hammer-like reversal bar and price started to move back up. I took a second entry as price broke above the PP. My target was $10.00 and I took a partial at the 75% extension because price was moving fast and was getting too far from the 5 ema. The $10.00 was reached on the next leg up.
The chart below is the same chart with AH trading. I nursed this chart all day long and it was a big winner. But notice the AH traders made more money in much less time.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rr3Rs8o6QII/AAAAAAAAB_4/AqDbpuuVwLg/s400/LEND5.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rr3Rtco6QJI/AAAAAAAACAA/tWDgIn7tJgQ/s400/frpt.png FRPT, also from the Briefing.com gapper list, carved out a NR ascending base at the cusp of its PP resitance line.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rr3Rtco6QKI/AAAAAAAACAI/r-xvVMdsm4A/s400/nvda.png NVDA looked like it might retrace back to the ORL, but it found support at the mid-morning swing low. The little green hammer foreshadowed a swing back up so I tightened the stop.
Despite the restrictions due to technical problems, I was able to find one momo setup and two decent trades from a very short list of gappers. A good exercise for paper traders if you're so inclined. Try it for one day and see what happens.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/11/2007 11:05:00 AM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Friday, August 10, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Volatility Persists
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrvlH8o6QFI/AAAAAAAAB_g/-DyLTDJPFws/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrvlIMo6QGI/AAAAAAAAB_o/PCsREpNkay0/s400/comp15.pngA modest pullback after a strong run to resistance is constructive as long as the pattern is overlapping with retracement levels holding. I wouldn't want to see us retrace more than 62%, otherwise we will be in for another retest of the lows. Thus far, the Nasdaq has retraced 50% and S&P near 62%. But, today's 387 point DOW slump went a little too far.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: HILL +8.3%; DTSI +6.7%; ICFI +6.5%; FRPT +6.1%; NEXT +4.6%; FMD +4.1%; GENR +3.8%; CUZ +3.8%; NDN +3.6%; AES +3.5%; BSQR +3.1%; EPEX +2.9%; AXCA +2.8%; SYNA +2.6%; PRFT +2.2%; SPRD +2.1%; LGF +2.0%; DNEX +1.1%... Trading Down: INPC -25.5%; IFON -16.8%; DEIX -14.0%; MCHX -13.0%; DIVX -12.5%; SYMM -11.9%; SNS -11.2%; TRMS -11.4%; CPKI -10.5%; IMAX -10.0%; BRKS -10.0%; HSOA -8.9%; ELX -6.7%; ETEL -6.5%; JOBS -5.2%; MED -4.8%; INT -4.5%; AGO -4.4%; DAR -3.0%; TMRK -2.7%; AIRM -2.1%; NVDA -2.0%; SHOE -1.5%; SAPE -1.2%; BORL -1.1%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: ASH +8.6% (releases statement regarding stock price); SINA +5.9% (obtains broadcasting rights for European soccer); GENZ +2.7% (announces settlement of lawsuit concerning consolidation of tracking stocks); GMO +2.4% (announces Mt. Hope Bankable Feasibility study conference call Aug 30th at 4 PM ET); VICR +1.4% (announces delay in 10-Q filing); BIIB +1.3% (names Paul Clancy CFO and Executive VP); IVGN +1.1% (introduces disposable stem cell passaging tool)... Trading Down: CFC -11.8% (files 10-Q); HRL -5.1% (lowers Q3 and FY07 EPS guidance below consensus; guides Q4 EPS below consensus); IRIS -3.1% (to file for extension of Form 10-Q Filing deadline due to emergency surgery of Interim CFO); HS -1.9% (acquire Leon Medical Centers Health for approx $355 mln; should add at least $0.15 to the Co's 2008 diluted EPS); HLS -1.8% (East Peak Partners discloses 5.2% stake in SC 13D filing); BSX -1.2% (and Advanced Bionics Principals announce strategic accord; new schedule of fixed payments by BSX to former Advanced Bionics).
N.B. - I'll publish the JOYG trendline trade mentioned in the previous post over the weekend.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/10/2007 12:05:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Thursday, August 09, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Career Education Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:CECO)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrt3sMo6QDI/AAAAAAAAB_Q/IRFxwWj269w/s400/ceco.png CECO gapped down on earnings, rallied back up to yesterday's low and carved out a hanging man and doji just under the downsloping 5 period ema. I was hoping for an inside bar, but I took the trade anyway. Once price retraced more than 62% of the move from the ORL to the swing high, I was determined that it would go all the way (100%). That's pretty much how it played out.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrt3sco6QEI/AAAAAAAAB_Y/XNyN4trNssI/s400/tbsi.png TBSI also gapped down on earnings and rallied back up close to yesterday's ORL. After some choppy sideways action, it eventually started to trade in a very narrow range at the base of its gap opening. I shorted the low of the NR base. TBSI fell sharply. The entry bar closed on its low and it continued lower. When price stalled at the 200 MA I took a partial. I placed a stop above the hammer and was stopped out on the balance. The spread on TBSI sometimes goes as wide as 40 cents. Ideally you want to get out on strength, otherwise the slippage on a stop can seriously reduce the profit. That's why I don't trade big size on this stock.
N.B. - Another wild day for the markets. I had a couple of B&B failures and more level II glitches. However, the two gapper trades worked well as did the planned trade - JOYG - intraday trendline break. I'll post that one later tonight.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2007 04:19:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper
Wednesday, August 08, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Regain Momentum
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrqDJco6QBI/AAAAAAAAB_A/DCgVTnqUysA/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrqDJso6QCI/AAAAAAAAB_I/7HGIm9U-nio/s400/namo.pngEarly strength was triggered by solid earnings in a few names including CSCO, which helped the NAZ outperform. Also some carryover momentum amid this weeks strong recovery was in play. It was green all round, however, we fell prey to some mid-afternoon profit taking near the 50 MA. The volatility that ensued was more typical of rumor/program driven action but it's hard to know for sure. Although the downdraft was very disappointing, the late day rebound leaves the door open for additional near term progress as long as we can hold the afternoon lows.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2007 10:47:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Retracement Trade - Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:HOKU)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrp8Bso6QAI/AAAAAAAAB-4/WjCOhWY3Le0/s400/hoku2.png HOKU broke out of a base on high volume. After carving out a tweezer top reversal pattern, it retraced 32% of the move from the ORL to the swing high, on declining volume. It held its 5 period MA and setup a long entry on a base within a base.
On the two charts below, I've highlighted PPs (blue lines) and gap resistance (red lines). 50 MA has been recaptured on a closing basis but 20 MA is just pennies away.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrp5sso6P-I/AAAAAAAAB-o/yrXCRhWhO5I/s400/HOKU1.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrp5s8o6P_I/AAAAAAAAB-w/fHA0RBLnqm0/s400/hoku.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2007 10:17:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Fibonacci_retracement
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Wednesday, August 08, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Cisco Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSCO)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrpOwso6P6I/AAAAAAAAB-I/tl829Iwc86E/s400/csco.png CSCO was a fairly straight forward gapper dummy setup - Trader-X style. You could have also entered on the retracement of the morning swing high. CSCO tagged $31.50 then retraced 62% of the move from the early swing low to the base and carved out a red hammer which closed above the up sloping 5 period ema.
In mid afternoon the markets succumbed to some serious profit taking and CSCO did not reach its full 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the base ($31.50).
My other gapper trade was a little more problematic, but you'd never guess looking at the perfect three bar ascending base from which I took my entry. The first chart is the 15 min. timeframe and second is the daily.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrpR2Mo6P7I/AAAAAAAAB-Q/K-JwdjTHIFg/s400/sgr1.png I took a dummy gapper long on a break of the ORH. Things started out very nicely but then the BO bar closed with a long upper shadow. A quick look at the daily to see if I had missed something. I was aware of the PP (blue line) because it was behind me already. I had looked at the daily too quickly and I had missed the bearish gap resistance (area between red lines).
Price was having difficulty extending because of the gap resistance. I started scaling out at $56.30 and moved my stop on the balance to $56.00.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrpR2co6P8I/AAAAAAAAB-Y/M_szJJl4kZk/s400/sgr.png
N.B. Volume was so high today that my IB platform couldn't keep up with the correct bid and ask. My Esignal level II also went crazy during peak volume. It's a little scary when the platform tells a different story than the charts.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2007 07:13:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Tuesday, August 07, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Solid Extension
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrkxf8o6P3I/AAAAAAAAB9w/1_1B5mkyQYA/s400/comp.pnghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrk11Mo6P4I/AAAAAAAAB94/vCSsr9rQaSA/s400/comp15.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrk11so6P5I/AAAAAAAAB-A/7XEyPqOmXkc/s400/namo.png
It's hard to tell from the chart but today's volume was above average and higher than yesterday so this extension looks like an accumulation day. Haven't had one of those in a while. We achieved new recovery highs in the last hour of trade, but a late day dip trimmed the gains. We're coming into some resistance so it'll be interesting to see if we can follow through for a third straight up session tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath.
FED policy makers left rates unchanged at 5.25% for a ninth straight time. Even though the market was unrealistically optimistic about the Fed coming to Wall Street's credit crunch rescue, the academics only acknowledged the tightening credit conditions. Somehow this was eventually viewed as a net positive after the initial knee jerk down movement.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: BITS +15.1%; PCR +15.1%; PACR +14.9%; NSIT +11.5%; PCLN +9.7%; LXU +7.7%; UNTD +7.7%; HSTX +6.9%; QMAR +6.8%; TTGT +6.7%; CSCO +5.9%; ALJ +5.7%; GB +5.6%; JRT +5.5%; BIO +5.6%; ESE +5.4%; TRID +5.1%; FLR +3.6%; KNOL +3.4%; MDR +3.3%; CSPI +3.1%; COGO +2.8%; TRLG +2.3%; GSS +1.5%; ENOC +1.3%; OPMR +1.2%; FST +1.1%; ZIXI +1.0%; MSSR +1.0%... Trading Down: HLYS -30.0%; SMTX -25.9%; LEAP -14.5%; MVSN -7.3%; SONS -6.2%; MBLX -5.0%; SCI -4.8%; SOMX -4.6%; UTI -4.6%; MLR -4.2%; MDRX -4.1%; DRRX -3.4%; EGLE -3.0%; KND -2.9%; DEEP -2.9%; GTRC -2.7%; HCC -2.6%; SGTL -2.6%; NGAS -2.3%; CREE -1.8%; ONXX -1.4%; RAH -1.4%; ATO -1.3%; GOLF -1.1%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: M** +27.9% (being acquired by Ecolab for $6.30/share; ECL reaffirms FY07 EPS guidance); RDN +18.2% (provides update on status of MGIC merger); ANH +15.5% (filed its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and Provides Update on Subsequent E); HANS +2.2% (SEC completes investigation of Hansen Natural); CRZ +2.0% (announces 2 mln share stock repurchase plan); JBX +1.9% (announces 2-for-1 stock split, subject to stockholder approval of increase in authorized common stock); PNCL +1.2% (releases July traffic)... Trading Down: NEXC -6.1% (provides quarterly operations update noting an 89% drilling success rate and an 115 production increase over the previous quarter); BRNC -2.0% (names new Chairman); EPEX -1.9% (provides quarterly operations update noting an 89% drilling success rate and an 115 production increase over the previous quarter); HTBK -1.7% (Board of Directors approves $30 mln stock repurchase plan); KAMN -1.4% (named President and COO of Kaman Corporation); BOBE -1.1% (announces 2-for-1 stock split, subject to stockholder approval of increase in authorized common); GM -1.0% (Russian tycoon buys GM stake -- FT).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2007 10:57:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gap Fade - j2 Global Communications, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JCOM)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrkEqso6PzI/AAAAAAAAB9Q/BgDvxM20G_4/s400/jcom.png The first chart is the daily timeframe which highlights the pivot points I was looking at in pre-market for a potential short. At the time, JCOM was trading above $32.00, however, in the minutes prior to the open, it fell sharply.
The next chart is the 15 minute timeframe which shows that my pre-market setup was invalidated on the open when both pivots were captured by the OR bar.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrkEq8o6P0I/AAAAAAAAB9Y/rbyTbgHoOPY/s400/jcom1.png These next two charts are 5 minutes and highlight my entry and exits.
My first trade was a short which I based on a potential retracement of the ORL to the first swing high. I was hoping for at 62% retracement, but I only got 50%. I traded it textbook style, trailing a stop above the previous bar high and I was stopped out for a tiny profit.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrkEq8o6P1I/AAAAAAAAB9g/kyxAkKyoszg/s400/jcom2.png When price closed above $32.00, I decided to take the next low risk entry long, either a B&B at the morning swing high or a NRB. My NRB (inside) popped up almost immediately and I was long. A few bars later JCOM carved out a NR7 inside bar at the cusp of the round $ number and that's when price expanded in earnest. I booked at partial as price closed the gap and trailed my stop on the balance. Another entry was taken late in the session on a B&B setup.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrkErMo6P2I/AAAAAAAAB9o/TN5BuItcjEc/s400/jcom3.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2007 07:28:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gap_Fade, Gapper
Pivot Point Trade - QUALCOMM, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:QCOM)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrj6Zso6PxI/AAAAAAAAB9A/sf0zoHljv5Q/s400/qcom1.png The first chart is the daily timeframe for QCOM. It highlights significant pivot point support at $40.00.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrj6Zso6PyI/AAAAAAAAB9I/s2PQm0Zy70o/s400/qcom.png
The next chart is the 15 minute timeframe. On an intraday basis, $41.00 was a PP. When QCOM carved out a NRB at the upper PP with a bearish MA crossover just overhead, I took the dummy short. My stop was just pennies above the hanging man. My target was $40.00. I moved my stop textbook style, above the previous bar high and exited when the target was reached.
QCOM was on the Briefing.com gapper list and that's how I found the setup.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2007 07:02:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point
Base & Break - Illumina, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ILMN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrjkJMo6PwI/AAAAAAAAB84/Kt2q779B8Tg/s400/ilmn2.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrjhQco6PvI/AAAAAAAAB8w/C8_kCd0haKU/s400/ilmn.pngILMN was Jim's pick from the comments last night. The first chart is the daily timeframe with the blue line indicating the base. The second chart is the 3 min. timeframe which I used for my entry and exit. You can see that the base from yesterday afternoon is tested on the open. I hesitated at first because there was virtually no volume on the first two 3 minute bars. I guess maybe it's NR7, at least it felt that way when the third bar let loose.
Great pick Jim and thanks for sharing!
If I have time later tonight, I'll post my gapper trades - JCOM ended being a fade (short/stop/long) and QCOM, which was also on the Briefing.com gapper list this morning, was a nice PP setup.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2007 05:14:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break
Monday, August 06, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - 200 DMA Brings Back Buyers
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrfhlso6PuI/AAAAAAAAB8o/XSTYkr-6ahE/s400/comp.pngAs discussed in my weekend post, the 200 DMA was the last vestige of hope for the bulls and it worked, for now.
All of Wall St. will be focused on the FOMC policy statement tomorrow at 2:15.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: WYNN +10.4%; NAVR +9.9%; ASEI +9.3%; MNT +9.2%; NVTL +8.9%; XCO +8.5%; MR +8.3%; HIMX +5.9%; OMPI +5.3%; AUDC +4.7%; LOCM +4.2%; TNS +4.2%; BMC +4.1%; NILE +3.2%; CUTR +2.7%; WEL +2.5%; DECC +1.0%... Trading Down: AHS -21.8%;TMTA -13.8%; ENCY -10.1%; CTRP -7.6%; HAYN -7.0%; JCOM -6.4%; RTEC -4.9%; NHI -4.8%; GPK -4.7%; SWC -4.7%; VRNM -4.6%; BEXP -4.4%; TAL -4.1%; SINA -3.4%; CNO -3.3%; THK -3.4%; ITWO -3.1%; CXW -2.6%; KRO -2.4%; PSD -2.2%; SRSL -1.9%; HLEX -1.7%; SYKE -1.4%; AXS -1.1%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CRGN +40.0% (provides update on Velafermin, Belinostat and CR011-vcMMAE clinical development programs); SLM +1.3% (issues statement regarding merger; reaffirms that its merger can and should be consummated in October 2007); DRYS +1.1% (announces agreements to purchase 8 Drybulk Vessels)... Trading Down: KCAP -6.1% (reiterates that it has no mortgage debt exposure); DWA -2.9% (announces sale of shares by Paul Allen; increases size of existing share repurchase program to an aggregate $150mln); CMP -2.2% (subsidiary to increase sulfate of potash specialty fertilizer prices); RKT -1.8% (announces amendment to senior credit facility to increase limit on cash repurchases of the co's common stock to $100 mln during any FY); MET -1.5% (to acquire SafeGuard, provider of dental and vision benefits; terms not disclosed); AOC -1.3% (Appoints Michael D. O'Halleran Aon Re global executive chairman, Ted T. Devine Chief Executive Officer); SCHW -1.2% (reiterates that it has no mortgage debt exposure).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/06/2007 11:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
AAPL - Pivot Points
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrfZbMo6PsI/AAAAAAAAB8Y/-qU0a_l6aTc/s400/aapl2.pngIn response to Pat's question in comments below. The first chart is the daily with PP (blue arrows) and support congestion points (red arrows). 50 SMA in play and lines up closely to PP.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrfZbco6PtI/AAAAAAAAB8g/vQZBZW73MFc/s400/aapl1.pngChoppy but you could have tried to this PP break following NR7 doji. I don't particularly like the doji as the trigger bar (indecision) so I usually wait for confirmation in terms of using the previous bar high as my base. I'm not crazy about the setup and I would not have put much money to work here. Don't like the long upper shadow on the 11:45 bar. However, this was the third test of the PP and often the third test is the one that finally breaks through. Actually looks a lot better on the 5 minute than the 15.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/06/2007 10:30:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point
JOYG - Pivot Points
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrfTCMo6PrI/AAAAAAAAB8Q/GvuqncLPcG4/s400/joyg.pngThis is how I determined my JOYG pivot points. Red arrows for upper PP and blue arrows for lower pivot support line.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/06/2007 10:03:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point
Base & Break - Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrd_Sco6PpI/AAAAAAAAB8A/0vHoMAX6nfY/s400/joyg1.png The first chart is the daily timeframe of JOYG which shows the base and break pattern as well as the pivot point support area which I used as my target on the short entry highlighted on the 15 minute timeframe below. Notice how close the downsloping 5 period ema is on the daily timeframe.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rrd_S8o6PqI/AAAAAAAAB8I/Ey1a7ULAUTU/s400/joyg.png I entered short on a break of the Friday's low. I used the red line as my stop because it lined up nicely with an intraday pivot area from last week. JOYG fell like a lead balloon, carving out three WRBs. I covered as price approached the PP target. Around 11:00, the NASDAQ tested its 200 DMA on the daily timeframe. At around the same time, JOYG set up a dummy long. There is often a reversal after a stock tests a significant PP on the daily timeframe. My target was the base from the B&B pattern and it was tagged during lunch.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/06/2007 04:03:00 PM 17 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Pivot Point
Sunday, August 05, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Late Session Selloff Puts an Abrupt End to Dead Cat Bounce
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrY9Xco6PmI/AAAAAAAAB7o/QKaq3pE7hfc/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrY9Xso6PnI/AAAAAAAAB7w/I8K4uc11XZE/s400/compwk.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrY9X8o6PoI/AAAAAAAAB74/4FN_KpoZ2eo/s400/namo.png Equity markets are in distress over the credit crunch. Despite the panic over the sub-prime mess, it is unlikely that Big Ben will alter his Ivory tower approach to managing Fed policy during this Tuesday's FOMC meeting. Cautious trading again this week.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/05/2007 05:10:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Friday, August 03, 2007Base & Break - Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ALXN) and Monster Worldwide, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:MNST)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrPOUMo6PjI/AAAAAAAAB7Q/4GPSDJNHCmI/s400/ALXN2.png The first chart is the 5 minute timeframe of ALXN which opened where it left off yesterday. Early weakness held support from yesterday's late day retracement. Then it chopped around and eventually formed a tradable base. I took a partial after 1 pt. and closed the position on weakness heading into late morning. Shortly after lunch it set up a nice B&B pattern and rallied up to $63.00. As soon as it fell back under the round $ number I was out.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrPOUco6PkI/AAAAAAAAB7Y/DlwJ443AdvA/s400/mnst.png The next chart is the daily view of MNST. As you can see it was setting up a B&B pattern off of yesterday's NR session.
The next chart is the 15 minute timeframe of my entry and exits. MNST violated the base on the second bar and retested on the third. After that it was just a matter of finding a low risk dummy entry close enough to the downsloping 5 period ema.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrPOUco6PlI/AAAAAAAAB7g/gCwMY3aQ3eM/s400/mnst1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 8/03/2007 08:51:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy
Thursday, August 02, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Choppy Snooze Fest Ahead of Jobs Data
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrKO8co6PhI/AAAAAAAAB7A/SXeJNlw4Ylk/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrKO8so6PiI/AAAAAAAAB7I/LtF0NPphE7E/s400/namo.png
Follow through on yesterday's bullish hammer reversal bar, but overall the session was a choppy snooze fest ahead of the jobs data tomorrow morning. For the second day running, we have been getting the bulk of the buying in the tail end of the session. Seems that there may be some program buying late in the day and selling into the open.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SWIM +16.6%; CAB +4.2%; SUPG +3.9%; THS +3.8%; CBOU +3.7%; OPTV +3.3%; BKHM +2.8%; UHCO +2.8%; ALKS +2.6%; ZILG +2.3%; IBI +2.0%; CPE +1.8%; PCOP +1.7%; CHK +1.7%; AW +1.5%; IMMR +1.5%; EVC +1.5%; UEIC +1.5%; CVLT +1.3%; LOOK +1.3%; ITMN +1.2%; NU +1.1%... Trading Down: JSDA -23.1%; BBND -19.2%; NTAP -18.2%; VOLC -11.4%; IDSY -9.9%; CBAK -9.4%; WLT -7.6%; NGPS -7.0%; SIMG -6.3%; NFG -5.6%; LPSN -5.1%; IOM -4.9%; VSCN -4.3%; ADBL -3.4%; SLXP -2.8%; CSTR -2.6%; TLEO -2.5%; SBAC -2.4%; FIRE -2.4%; MXIM -2.1%; TSRA -2.0%; EOG -2.0%; TRCA -1.9%; HMSY -1.8%; URS -1.8%; KFS -1.7%; ERES -1.7%; HVT -1.6%; MFLX -1.5%; BRS -1.5%; ATVI -1.4%; COLY -1.3%; ABCO -1.2%; PSA -1.2%; LSE -1.1%; OEH -1.0%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: LEND +25.4% (reports in annual report they are proceeding as planned to work toward closing the merger with Lone Star ); CXZ +8.9% (appoints new Chief Financial Officer); ABVA +3.0% (announces 300K expansion of its stock repurchase program); RTSX +2.6% (acquires Northern California facility); JAZZ +2.4% (announces submission of complete responses to FDA Approvable Letters for Luvox CR and Luvox); CFC +1.9% (comments on its "strong" funding liquidity and financial condition)... Trading Down: TTWO -18.7% (beats by $0.02; missed on revs; co names new Chief Financial Officer Jean-Yves Dexmier); ITC -17.7% (appoints new Chief Financial Officer); VOLC -11.4 (announces Japan approval of the Revolution 45 MHz high-frequency rotational IVUS imaging catheter and system); EXAS -5.3% (announces acceptance of its Medicare application seeking coverage of DNA-based colorectal cancer screening technology); DRL -4.6% (announces 1-for-20 reverse stock split); LNY -1.8% (obtains temporary restraining order against bond holders); LINE -1.5% (to acquire oil and gas properties in the Texas panhandle for $22.5 mln); LDG -1.4% (reported preliminary total retail drug store sales from continuing operations of $359); PED -1.4% (acquires assets of Bright Ideas Group); LOOP -1.3% (acquires Cityfeet.com for $15 mln); MKTY -1.2 (receives purchase order for $1.14 mln from the U.S. Air Force).
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Posted by Jamie at 8/02/2007 10:04:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Base & Break - Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ALXN)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrJqmco6PfI/AAAAAAAAB6w/Bm_nBn7bwU0/s400/ALXN.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrJqmso6PgI/AAAAAAAAB64/HgHGiLz6YVE/s400/ALXN1.png The first chart is the daily chart of ALXN which gapped up last week and has remained strong despite weak market conditions. Today it broke out of its gap consolidation base.
The second chart is a 5 minute chart of my entry and exits. I took an early entry, keying off of a mini ascending triangle. Price rallied on high volume out of the base and stalled at the cusp of the round $ dollar number. I took a partial and waited for the stock to retrace (38% normal retracement) not realizing it was so late in the session. As the stock was making its way to the 38% Fib. retracement level, I woke up to the fact that there was less than 30 minutes left in the session. It worked out in the end, but I'll have to be more mind full of the clock from now on.
N.B. ARTC another gapper from last week, is also setting up a nice B&B.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/02/2007 07:35:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Fibonacci
Dummy Gapper (Short) Trade of the Day - Nortel Networks Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:NT)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrJka8o6PeI/AAAAAAAAB6o/JJyQMMokhQM/s400/nt.pngNT was a quick setup and a fast trade. The stock gapped down below yesterday's low and carved out a WOR with a long lower shadow. The second stick was a perfect bearish, gravestone doji that did not breach the ORH. I took a dummy short on the break of the second bar low (inside bar). Price started to slow down as we approached the $20.00 round number so I took a partial and I was stopped out on the balance shortly after. The low of the day did not reach the 38% extension of the previous day high to the ORL (off by about 10 cents). Still the trade generated 3R.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/02/2007 07:09:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Wednesday, August 01, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Hammer after a Strong Close
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrE9Y8o6PcI/AAAAAAAAB6Y/5wWkqLcCiZQ/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrE9Zco6PdI/AAAAAAAAB6g/aZsCJsX2UA4/s400/comp15.pngIt was a slow day until we got that strong finish. The bulls and bears struggled all day, but the last half hour gave us a very impressive spike with the best volume of the session. I'm very optimistic for a bounce following today's session based on the technicals highlighted in the charts above.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/01/2007 10:10:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Amkor Technology, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMKR)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrDv0so6PZI/AAAAAAAAB6A/0n2UUBGPs4k/s400/AMKR1.png The first chart is the daily and the key take away here is that AMKR opened below its rising 200 day SMA. Initially, it tried to recover it but failed. The other thing I look at on the daily is if the 38% Fib. extension lines up with something technically meaningful. Here we had a PP (swing low) so it was picture perfect.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrDv08o6PaI/AAAAAAAAB6I/jkiPt6iD8Q8/s400/AMKR.png The second chart is the 15 minute with my entry and exit. At the point of entry, I had four volume bars and it was quite obvious that the bears had a show of strength. The second observation was the proximity of the down sloping 5 period ema which is important for timing the entry correctly. I do like the entry bar to close at or near its low and in this case I would have preferred if it had taken out the round number $11.50, but it was just a heart beat away.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RrDv08o6PbI/AAAAAAAAB6Q/o5Dvj0bd__Q/s400/AMKR2.png The third chart is the 1 minute chart which I always watch closely after entry. I don't like getting stopped out, so if the trade starts out really badly, I can sometimes save a bit of money by either scratching or tightening the stop.
In the case of AMKR, we had the typical retest after the initial break. The key here is that it observed the 20 EMA as resistance on a closing basis. Once the trade got going, price never breached the down sloping 5 period ema on a closing basis. Each consolidation point was orderly and if you wanted to add shares to your already successful trade, the breaks of the consolidations points, marked by the blue line segments, were the best entry points.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/01/2007 04:37:00 PM 15 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Tuesday, July 31, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Gap Fade
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq_b1Mo6PYI/AAAAAAAAB54/FiR7Feof1kw/s400/ndx.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq_aX8o6PVI/AAAAAAAAB5g/DrTvW_BDFjA/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq_aYMo6PWI/AAAAAAAAB5o/JuE-X8mk99A/s400/comp15.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq_aYco6PXI/AAAAAAAAB5w/Af7tNENFGQI/s400/namo.pngThe A List tech stocks such as AAPL and AMZN got pummeled today and that brings the NDX 100 into the same technical space as the other major indices. Tech stocks led the selloff today and everything closed near the lows.
Tomorrow is the start of a new month and that could bring some new money. I'm not holding my breath, just taking it one day at a time.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2007 08:43:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ, Tweezer_Top
Dummy Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq-3yso6PUI/AAAAAAAAB5Y/knPSgCr7swQ/s400/AMZN1.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq-sdso6PTI/AAAAAAAAB5Q/x5QLpSLr98o/s400/amzn.png The first chart is the daily timeframe for AMZN. After last week's earnings gap, AMZN carved out a bearish tweezer top candlestick reversal pattern. I've been waiting patiently all week for a chance to short AMZN and today was the big payday.
Yesterday AMZN gapped down but had a relatively orderly, NR day. Today it gapped up on the open, and like the markets, it was a fade. The WOR held support of yesterday's lower base. It consolidated in the lower portion of the OR and set up a perfect dummy short before falling like a hot knife through butter. There was a brief moment where I thought this was a head fake. After breaking down close to a dollar, AMZN snapped back and rallied all the way back up to the BO point. It numbed me briefly and I thought I would be stopped out. But after a quick retest of the breakout point, it fell down as planned. Whew! It fell four points in less than 45 minutes before capitulating on huge volume.
As indicated on the 15 minute chart, I used the high of the tweezer top as the high for my Fibonacci extension and the ORL as my base. I wanted to use the Fibs as my guide even though there is no gap down per se. Based on my analysis of the daily chart, the tweezer top seemed like the most logical starting point.
There is still more opportunity here as AMZN has yet to fill the earnings gap, after which, I fully expect it to bounce.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2007 05:34:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bargain Hunters Wade Back In Cautiously
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq7DEso6PSI/AAAAAAAAB5I/f86nq-lDA4w/s400/comp.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2007 01:04:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Monday, July 30, 2007Trading the Watch List
Over the weekend, I spent some time going over my watch list of usual suspects paring down and segmenting the names into three categories. The A List comprises stocks still trading above all of the MAs including the10 DMA after last week's free fall. The B List are stocks that closed below the 10 but above the 50 - technically, these stocks are still solid as long as they stay above the 50 on a closing basis. The C List, you guessed it, are gutter stocks trading below their 200 DMA.
A List - AAPL, AMZN, AMAT, BIIB, BIDU, CELG, CMI, CROX, FFIV, FSLR, IBM, VSEA;
C List - AKAM, CAL, JOYG, MNST, NTAP, NTRI
My trading plan for the open was to concentrate on the A and C List stocks. I was looking for gap downs below Friday's low from the A list and gap ups or signals of strength from the C list.
Three stocks met the gap criteria - BIIB, and IBM gapped down below Friday's low and MNST gapped up above Friday's high. While I was waiting for the gappers to develop on the 15 minute timeframe, I looked to see if I could find some orderly setups from the other names on the list.
JOYG was carving out a bullish rounded bottom with good volume, so I decided to go long on a break of the ORH. Here is the 3 minute chart of my entry and exit.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq6kd8o6PQI/AAAAAAAAB44/743zDub1k7I/s400/joyg.png
Getting back to the gappers, IBM moved too quickly and did not meet my criteria for a low risk entry. MNST was just plain ugly. BIIB set up a nice inside bar just below the down sloping 5 period ema. The target was the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL. The entry bar was WR and closed near its low which for me, is a true indicator of the potential for success.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq6kdso6PPI/AAAAAAAAB4w/tSbBHhEIRF4/s400/biib.png
In the afternoon, the market started to show a little more promise so I scoured the watchlist for some B&B patterns. I love rounded bottoms because they impy that demand is greater than supply. Every time sellers try to push price lower, buyers step in creating a rounded base.
FSLR made a beautiful rounded bottom with a few NR bars just before the break - price/volume contraction before expansion.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq6keMo6PRI/AAAAAAAAB5A/qgZ2zBmVoqI/s400/fslr2.png
We'll look at the B List on another day. Categorizing the watch list makes it easier to work with during the trading day, but its much more work to maintain the list. For example, at the end of the day, some B list names have to be transferred to the A List and JOYG has recaptured its 200 DMA.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/30/2007 10:26:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Watchlist
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Sunday, July 29, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Momentum Intact Despite Oversold Conditions
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq0BNMo6PLI/AAAAAAAAB4Q/UUNGQ4VYVqk/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq0BNco6PMI/AAAAAAAAB4Y/Dt647fDhnZo/s400/compweekly.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq0Cnco6PNI/AAAAAAAAB4g/xNZqbmeq-94/s400/ndx100.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rq0Cnso6POI/AAAAAAAAB4o/BxlCvqMIrdU/s400/namo.pngFriday's late session weakness was not inspiring if you're looking for opportunities on the long side. The NASDAQ 100 is still above water in terms of technical damage, but if the bears maintain control, it won't be long before our beloved, big tech growth stocks fall down too.
The McClellan oscillator is in the extreme oversold zone so I'm betting on a relief rally early in the week. I won't put any real money to work on this bet unless I see some solid signals that money is coming back into the market. So my strategy for next week will be the same as this past week - keep my open positions on a tight leash and don't try to be a hero.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/29/2007 05:03:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Friday, July 27, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - ArthroCare Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ARTC)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqpbFso6PKI/AAAAAAAAB4I/cgnw3RVPoi4/s400/artc.pngARTC - Classic Trader-X style - gap - consolidate - base and break of ORH. It was slow until it took out $50.50 and then it moved like a gapper should move. After taking out the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH, I though it might go to 62%, but it was exhausted so I closed the position as soon as the 2nd last candle started printing red.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/27/2007 04:50:00 PM 18 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Thursday, July 26, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqlhtMo6PHI/AAAAAAAAB3w/289fn0a-9E4/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rqlhtco6PII/AAAAAAAAB34/TWilUYzilAU/s400/comp2.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rqlhtso6PJI/AAAAAAAAB4A/-F_omVCOUrE/s400/namo.pngBEAR ATTACK
U.S. markets cratered including an aggressive sell-off that whipped the Dow down almost 450 points in the afternoon. The main take-aways are the extreme volume levels and disparity between the Advancers and Decliners - NYSE Adv: 290. Dec: 3071 and NASDAQ Adv: 541.. Dec: 2562. This disproportionate spread between adv./dec. often accompanies market turns.
The technical damage includes a broken trendline, loss of the 50 MA, and 38% retracement of the March - July rally in just five sessions. With just three trading days left in July, we are technically oversold and due for some sort of relief rally.
Economic Calendar: GDP, Chain deflator in pre-market and Michigan sentiment at 10:00.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/26/2007 11:04:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG) and Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqkNDMo6PFI/AAAAAAAAB3g/oPPy6D1-ybk/s400/joyg2.png Due to a bad tick, it was impossible to view the 15 minute timeframe for JOYG through Esignal in early trade today so I actually had to use stockcharts.com to see this chart correctly and map out the setup. My favorite shorting setup is an inside NR red bar. This one was perfectly placed at the base of yesterday's pivot low and in close proximity to the downsloping 5 period ema. Pivot point breaks generally result in vertical moves so you want to see the breakout bar close at or near its low. Since I couldn't draw any Fibs due to the bad tick, I used yesterday's Fib. calculation of $48.00 as my target.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqkNDco6PGI/AAAAAAAAB3o/DEmm0RWYpWc/s400/cal.png With $77.00 oil, I decided to look at CAL for potential weakness. After gapping lower and attempting a reversal, CAL managed to retrace up to the downsloping 5 period ema. Another red inside bar just below the 5 period ema - it doesn't get much better than that. The middle blue line is the pivot low from the most recent dip and I kept a tight stop as price tested that area. My target was the lower pivot line. As you can see CAL carved out a double bottom, so it may try to rally back up to fill the gap. We'll soon see.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/26/2007 05:03:00 PM 13 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Wednesday, July 25, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Modest Recovery
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqgDb8o6PDI/AAAAAAAAB3Q/KNq4mLAEDQ0/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqgDcMo6PEI/AAAAAAAAB3Y/Cy-YHVrcn74/s400/comp15.pngAs you can see from the NASDAQ intraday chart, we gapped up into pivot point resistance from yesterday's morning swing low. That was a gap fade begging to happen. Despite some intraday breaches of the PP low, we still managed a modest recovery with some signs of positive divergence of the RSI.
Most major tech sectors ended the session in the green paced by biotechs and internets, but networking was a loser again today. Decliners edged out advancers by a margin of 17:14 and new lows outpaced new highs 257/85.
Tech heavyweights BIDU and AAPL performed in AH on the earnings front so we may see some momentum from that tomorrow. NB: AAPL closed AH at $150.00 despite lowered guidance. Must have been an interesting conference call.
Economic Calendar: Durable orders and initial claims in pre-market and New Home sales at 10:00
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Posted by Jamie at 7/25/2007 10:12:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gap_Fade, NASDAQ
AAPL - Up 12 Pts. From Today's Close
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqfL-Mo6PCI/AAAAAAAAB3I/i6THdtp46Pw/s400/aapl.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/25/2007 06:16:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: AAPL
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) - Earnings Headlines
AAPL was halted ahead of earnings so you might be wondering what's going on. After the initial wild swings price is sort of edging above $141.00
Here are the headlines:
Apple beats by $0.20; guides Q4 below consensus; sold 270k iPhones - Stock is halted (137.26 +1.76) : Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.92 per share, $0.20 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.72; revenues rose 23.8% year/year to $5.41 bln vs the $5.29 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.65 vs. $0.82 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $5.7 bln vs. $6.03 bln consensus. AAPL reports Q3 iPod shipments of 9.815 mln vs roughly 10 mln street expectation; reports Mac shipments of 1.76 mln vs 1.7 mln street expectation; reports gross margin 36.9% vs roughly 32.7% street expectation. Apple sold 270k iPhone in the last couple days of Q3. Steve Jobs said, "iPhone is off to a great start -- we hope to sell our one- millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales -- and our new product pipeline is very strong."
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Posted by Jamie at 7/25/2007 05:10:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Biogen Idec Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BIIB)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqeyV8o6O_I/AAAAAAAAB2w/JVdK65A6Eao/s400/biib.png After yesterday's sell off, my strategy for today was "don't be a hero". Tight entries with tight stops and take profits early - manage the trades on the 5 minute timeframe as opposed to a 15 minute chart.
BIIB set up a nice B&B long. As you can see from the chart above, I moved my stop below the previous bar low and was taken out before the extension was reached. But on the pullback, BIIB held support of the narrow B&B pattern and proceeded to move back up. It tested the morning swing high and setup a second B&B. The second move was momo indeed, extending beyond the 62% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH. Again, I took my stop as planned. In early afternoon, BIIB set up another longer B&B, but this one failed so I took a scratch. No harm done, but the late day rounded top at the base of the 62% ext. level signified that there was too much supply.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqeyWMo6PAI/AAAAAAAAB24/fyAGyVrcASs/s400/joyg.png The chart above is the daily timeframe of JOYG before today's gap down. The blue line is pivot point support from May. When I calculated the Fib. ext. for JOYG, I had a target of $48.00 (38%) and I said no way.
The next chart is my JOYG trade, again using the 5 minute chart and the PP target of $50.45.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqeyWMo6PBI/AAAAAAAAB3A/9TuUitHjpSs/s400/joyg1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/25/2007 04:25:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Gapper
Tuesday, July 24, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - High Volume Drubbing
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqaSzco6O8I/AAAAAAAAB2Y/zK08XdTagjg/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqaSzso6O9I/AAAAAAAAB2g/zlgIJpvdkZU/s400/comp15.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqaSz8o6O-I/AAAAAAAAB2o/8h0RXaKodUU/s400/namo.pngWell airlines ($XAL) were up 0.31% today! Other than that it was a sea of red. Briefing is sighting numerous reasons from sub-prime woes to a longer than anticipated housing correction, but let's face it earnings-to-date can't support these lofty levels.
Going over the watch list and most of my recent hot stocks are trading with the market which means that many are below the 20 day MA heading towards the 50 MA. The 50 MA will be the real test.
We are in the oversold zone. QQQQs are trading up about 20 cents in AH. AAPL recovered a couple of points and AMZN has taken out resistance and trading like its 1999 ($84.00 in AH).
Economic calendar: Existing home in pre-market; crude at 10:30 and Fed Beige book at 2:00 EST.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2007 07:52:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Pivot Point Trade - Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENER)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqZhcco6O7I/AAAAAAAAB2Q/B8KXaV_z8Ww/s400/ener.png
I had a decidedly bearish bias on the open but everything I tried to short was unavailable or not immediately available (standby) through IB. Seems that it is getting increasingly difficult to short since they changed the uptick rules. Some of the names I tried to short were NFLX and MICC. After getting over my frustration, I looked to the long side. I had put ENER in my gapper list after reading a positive note on Briefing.com.
Energy Conversion unit signs three-yr agreement with Advanced Green Technologies for $108 mln of photovoltaic products (28.70 ) : United Solar Ovonic, a wholly owned subsidiary of ENER, announces that it has signed a 3-yr distributor agreement with Advanced Green Technologies for $108 mln of Photovoltaic products.
After reviewing the chart, I suspected that a successful break of yesterday's high would generate a momo move to the next PP level. I used a 20 cent stop because these setups don't usually have much in the way of retesting. Price consolidated in an orderly fashion at the $30.00 resistance level and then continued swiftly towards the target. I exited my full position at the target but left some money on the table as price did move higher.
I had better luck finding shares for shorting the big tech names this afternoon AAPL and AMZN. AMZN beat earnings expectations and is trading in the $78.00 range in AH.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2007 04:28:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point
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Monday, July 23, 2007Today's Trades
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqUQeco6O4I/AAAAAAAAB14/BFsM6-f07ro/s400/cien.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqUQeco6O5I/AAAAAAAAB2A/Rlema0SwCZ8/s400/grmn.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqUQeso6O6I/AAAAAAAAB2I/4whewciKbsc/s400/tasr.png Feeling under the weather. The charts are self explanatory but I'll try and update this post with commentary later this evening.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/23/2007 04:31:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, July 22, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqPC98o6O1I/AAAAAAAAB1g/SCfaRA4EItY/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqPC-Mo6O2I/AAAAAAAAB1o/0U46DcnPB74/s400/comp15.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqPC-Mo6O3I/AAAAAAAAB1w/PSEABEqVmDM/s400/namo.pngA gap down on weak tech earnings with solid follow through until noon, when the NASDAQ came into pivot point support at 2675. The bulls stepped up once again, as they did on Wednesday, and prices rallied 20 points back up to the prior pivot, before waning into the close.
No economic data until Wednesday, July 25th.
A big earnings week ahead will likely lock in direction more decisively, notwithstanding a mixed bag.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/22/2007 04:37:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Thursday, July 19, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Bullish Gap
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqAn0vtmjmI/AAAAAAAAB1Y/Q_SVGhRrgqU/s400/comp15.pngI'm feeling a little negative divergence creeping into the scenario. If we gap down tomorrow, we may have a bearish island reversal. We'll see. Tomorrow is options expiration and that's always tough to daytrade.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/19/2007 11:10:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Base & Break Trade - TBS International Limited (Public, NASDAQ:TBSI)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqAF_vtmjiI/AAAAAAAAB04/M4wIrnbOYTw/s400/tbsi1.png I first profiled TBSI as a watch list stock on June 18th when it was setting up a nice base and break pattern on the daily timeframe. It has since rallied 10 pts. Today it opened strong and tagged the PP setting off my alert.
The first chart is the 15 min. timeframe which shows my entry and trade management using Fibonacci extensions as the guide because this stock is trading in blue sky territory.
The second chart is the 5 minute which shows my entry at the base.
The third chart is the wide view of the 15 minute which shows the pivot points.
The last chart is the daily.
The main strategy for trading the PP B&B pattern is to set an alert 5-10 cents below the PP and keep the alert active so you don't miss the move. The third test is usually the successful one. Don't trade a PP break if the stock has just rallied from far away ie. the bottom of the trading range. Using the lower timeframe, look for an orderly base and a low risk, entry point. The break should be accompanied by very high volume which results in a vertical move.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqAF__tmjjI/AAAAAAAAB1A/88CxSePueG0/s400/tbsi.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RqAGAPtmjkI/AAAAAAAAB1I/Xyp5tIqLZJw/s400/tbsi2.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/19/2007 08:29:00 PM 13 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Pivot Point
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Gap Down
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rp7xSftmjgI/AAAAAAAAB0o/QHjO6Si7rhE/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rp7xSvtmjhI/AAAAAAAAB0w/aUFR9zNEwrM/s400/comp15.pngINTC earnings disappointment, sub-prime worries and Fed talk kept the bears in full control until midday. That was followed by a choppy afternoon snooze fest. Despite a very late session push, we have bearish gap resistance over head.
Economic Calendar: Intial claims at 8:30; Leading Ind. at 10:00 Philadelphia fed at noon and FOMC minutes at 2:00 EST.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/19/2007 01:05:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:HOKU) - Chart Analysis
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rp7pwPtmjeI/AAAAAAAAB0Y/yL6Qonn8OQA/s400/HOKU1.png HOKU has had a nice run since mid-June. After topping up last week, we've had a 50% retracement of the last leg up. Today's hammer closed on the rising 10 DMA and could foreshadow a reversal back up. Support levels include the gap between the two blue lines, followed by the $10.00 pivot point (green line). This week's retracement was on declining volume which bodes well for a retracement versus a reversal.
It will be important to monitor price and volume on the next leg up - a lower high would signify a prolonged consolidation or possible reversal.
Q2 earnings are scheduled for July 24th AH and, will no doubt have an impact on share price going forward.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/19/2007 12:31:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Support_Resistance, Technical
Wednesday, July 18, 2007Pivot Point Gapper Short - McDermott International (Public, NYSE:MDR)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rp55-vtmjdI/AAAAAAAAB0Q/EE1lmQ7KQAA/s400/mdr.png
MDR was my gapper long on Friday and it was sweet. Today it was a perfect PP gapper short. They say price has a memory and that came through in spades today with MDR.
I've color coded the pivot lines on the chart above so it easy to understand. Just click on the chart to enlarge the view.
The blue line has held as pivot support over the previous two sessions. Today's gap open breached the PP, but price quickly reversed in an attempt to regain it. The retest ultimately failed and presented a dummy shorting opportunity on the 5th bar. The red line is Friday's ORH and I used that level to lock in some profit as I knew it was significant and would likely provide some support. Price bounced from this level but could not close above the declining 5 period ema. The pink line is Friday's ORL and I covered the balance of my position as price swooned into this level. The green line marks the gap fill from Thursday to Friday of last week. Move stop a few ticks above the last red WRB on short positions and below last WR green bars for long until price approaches target.
After filling the gap, MDR carved out a perfect hammer and set up a long entry. The reversal rallied almost all the way back to the primary PP.
NB - The 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL lines up nicely with the gap fill level.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/18/2007 04:34:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Tuesday, July 17, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Semis Pace the Way
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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rp16cftmjcI/AAAAAAAAB0I/oeeFUL7YyYE/s400/INTC.pngImpressive performance by the SOX helped the NAZ post solid gains as it sprinted to new 6 1/2 year highs in the afternoon. Underpinning this group was an encouraging outlook from NVLS (+11.2%) prior to the open and midday commentary from KLAC (+8.9%) at the SEMICON West conference. Also, much anticipation of an earnings beat by INTC. The latter did not deliver and I expect some profit taking tomorrow in this sector. If you were not in this sector today, you might have found the day a little disappointing and somewhat choppy.
Economic Calendar: Pre-market CPI and Housing; Crude Inv. at 10:30
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Posted by Jamie at 7/17/2007 10:25:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Long - LKQ Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:LKQX) and Applied Materials, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMAT)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rp1Ut_tmjXI/AAAAAAAABzg/xX_8q6WhzPw/s400/lkqx.png Got a late start to my trading day and most of the good gapper setups passed me by. However, my scan came up with LKQX which was basing at the ORH on huge volume. I decided to place a buy stop order above the third bar high when the rising 5 period ema seemed close enough for this thing to take off and just after NR7. It didn't quite go as planned, but the next red consolidation bar held the ORH. It finally took off and made a nice move towards the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH. It stalled about 10 cents shy of the target and started printing red so I closed the position. The rationale for closing the position is that a normal retracement of 38% would bring price very close to my entry.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rp1UuPtmjYI/AAAAAAAABzo/3XUgcqa2VWM/s400/amat.png AMAT was trading in sympathy with NVLS on its strong earnings as were several leading semi stocks ahead of INTC earnings.
After retracing just less than 38% of the ORL to the morning swing high, AMAT carved out a perfect green hammer, signaling a reversal was imminent. I took a dummy long above the red line. After taking out the morning swing high, AMAT picked up the pace, and eventually reached the 100% Fib.extension of the PDL to the ORH. I closed my position as price came into the $22.00 level.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/17/2007 07:42:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Monday, July 16, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Consolidation Day
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rpwq8PtmjVI/AAAAAAAABzQ/mTq3Q8L8ig0/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rpwq8ftmjWI/AAAAAAAABzY/vSh5BrkXGns/s400/comp15.pngToday was a consolidation day ahead of a big earnings week and options expiration on Friday. As can be seen from the intraday chart, despite a higher high midday, we had quite the swoon in the afternoon. The 15 minute timeframe seems to be setting up a Head & Shoulders Top, so don't be surprised if we see more selling tomorrow.
Economic calendar: PPI at 8:30; Industrial prod and capacity at 9:15
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Posted by Jamie at 7/16/2007 10:34:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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