Monday, December 17, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (Public, NYSE:WFR)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R2c0i8ylLHI/AAAAAAAAC3I/vxID0V64Jzg/s400/wfr1.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R2c0jsylLII/AAAAAAAAC3Q/qzbPyYdf-VU/s400/wfr.pngWFR was highlighted in last night's HCPG's newsletter. The first chart is 15 min., followed by 3 min. Early weakness set up a highly predictable move back down to the recent trading range pivot lows. This was followed by a 62% Fib. retracement of the move from ORH to the morning swing low. I wasn't sure how far it would retrace so I partialled out.
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Posted by Jamie at 12/17/2007 09:44:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Bearish_Pennant, Fibonacci_retracement, Pivot Point
Sunday, December 16, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Uncertain
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R2Xst8ylLGI/AAAAAAAAC3A/qmBCibqHOew/s400/spx.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R2Xqi8ylLDI/AAAAAAAAC2o/zKSkPwWGH0s/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R2XqjMylLFI/AAAAAAAAC24/gfvxmgwEjAg/s400/namo.png
A very volatile, negative week with the S&P 500 giving back roughly half of the surge off the Nov low. The close on the lows of a bearish weekly candlestick (dark cloud cover) suggests potential for additional pressure early next week. Two NRBs on the NAZ look like a consolidation or pause ahead of further weakness (bearish engulfing on the weekly). Overbought/Oversold bias is more or less neutral, but moving quickly lower.
Sentiment - Broad market volatility moved higher this week with the VIX up 8.5% from last Friday's close, now at 22.6 and tech volatility increased with the VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) higher by 6.3% on the week at 25.3. There were big swings in the equities markets this week following the FOMC rate cut and the Fed's decision to partner with banks to improve liquidity. With the mkt unable to hold on to the gains following Wednesday's concerted effort to provide liquidity, uncertainty remains evident. The SPX lost 1.7% this week, the Dow is -1.5% and the Nasdaq is -1.9% on the week.
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Posted by Jamie at 12/16/2007 10:17:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Thursday's Trades
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R2Vkw8ylLBI/AAAAAAAAC2Y/eycOXSngZT8/s400/flml1.pngFLML tested and breached the intra-day pivot in early trade, followed by a retest and the formation of a shallow rounded base, setting up a low risk dummy long. This setup is very similar to the VMW trade on Tuesday.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R2VkxMylLCI/AAAAAAAAC2g/hbk9eqU48TE/s400/rimm.pngRIMM became a BO candidate after testing the pivot point (blue line) several times in early trade on both Wednesday and Thursday. The move from the PP back down to retest Wednesday's low was on tepid volume. The reversal at 2:00 carved out two bullish WR green sticks on an uptick in volume. This move was decisive and was followed by an inside bar in the upper half of the second WRB. I entered long on a break of the inside bar before the actual PP break. Locked in some gains just below $103.00 and waited for a possible retest of the PP, keeping a close eye on the lower time frame to monitor volume on the retracement (lower volume on the pullback implies a retracement as opposed to a reversal). The PP held as support and price expanded nicely into the close.
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Posted by Jamie at 12/16/2007 09:46:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Pivot Point, Retest, Rounded_base
Tuesday, December 11, 2007Trader-X and Tom C.
Trader-X - The silence is broken.
Tom C. - Trader-X protege has a new blog. Tom's blog boasts a witty name "EST. 2007". Okay, it's late and I'm feeling a little brain dead. EST - Eastern Standard Time or Expressed Sequence Tag???
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Posted by Jamie at 12/11/2007 11:45:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Blogs, Trader-X
Dummy Trade of the Day - VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R19MWlGn_GI/AAAAAAAAC2I/mArsHkwAHWU/s400/vmw.png VMW is a WL stock and was also highlighted on the HCPG newsletter last night. Despite the narrow gap, yesterday's wide range gives the Fib. extension a lot of potential.
The key take aways on this setup are:
[*]yesterday's high holds as support (blue line);[*]8th bar is NR7 inside;[*]9th bar closes on its high setting up a mini base in very close proximity to 5 period ema;[*]rounded bottom is very bullish - demand exceeds supply which means that each time sellers try to push price lower, they are met with more buyers.
I partialled out as price approached the Nov/Oct reaction swing highs as I thought it might hold as resistance ahead of the FED. I folded just under the 50% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH. In retrospect, that last move was dumb because the $100.00 psych level was within reach.
My post fed trade was short the Qs. The market had already priced in a 50 basis pt. rate cut so the 25 was a big disappointment.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R19X9FGn_HI/AAAAAAAAC2Q/njWPdmPnueg/s400/qqqq.png
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Posted by Jamie at 12/11/2007 09:48:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7, NRIB
Monday, December 10, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R14XMVGn_FI/AAAAAAAAC2A/9gV52iXi8mY/s400/amgn.pngAMGN from the Briefing.com gapper list was just one of many weak biotech stocks today (CELG - 52 week low).
Tweezer top reversal at the base of the ORH, plus pressure from the downsloping 20 ema, set up a perfect, low risk short. Unfortunately, the round $ number $50.00 was a strong support level.
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Posted by Jamie at 12/10/2007 11:50:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, Tweezer_Top
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Friday, December 07, 2007Pre-Market - ATHN
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1k1yVGn_EI/AAAAAAAAC14/mStqRoNAUYQ/s400/athn.png
I mentioned that I was adding ATHN to my watch list on November 2nd. It had a flat base BO EOD yesterday and looks poised to BO of this triangle pattern on the daily.
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Posted by Jamie at 12/07/2007 06:59:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pre-Market, Watchlist
Dummy Trade of the Day - Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1ke8VGn_CI/AAAAAAAAC1o/hnajWRPeFvE/s400/crox.png The first chart is a daily of CROX. The key take aways here are the NRIB at the base of pivot point resistance. The PP is derived from price action in early November after the wide earnings gap. Price pivoted off the blue line on day two following earnings and then price pivoted into the resistance of the blue line on day four. After a month of consolidation we came back to test the PP on Tuesday, followed by a NRIB at the point of convergence of the 5/20 MAs on Wednesday.
Yesterday's OR tested the daily pivot (blue line). I watched it closely until shortly after 11:00, hoping that price would find support at the rising 5 period ema. After lunch, I came back to it and all of a sudden things starting looking optimistic again. Long on a break of the PP base after NRIB (NR7). It broke out on an uptick in volume and paused shortly after at the 38% Fib. extension of the LOD (low of the day) to the base (blue line). The consolidation was orderly on declining volume. Once it took out the 38% level, it went vertical on accelerating volume. Sweet.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1ke8lGn_DI/AAAAAAAAC1w/LsGGGL41r-I/s400/crox1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 12/07/2007 05:20:00 AM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NR7, NRIB, Pivot Point
Wednesday, December 05, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1dxdlGn_BI/AAAAAAAAC1g/nv0R_3NaK0c/s400/aapl3.png AAPL gaps wide and quickly takes out the ORH and R2. 4/15 NRIB (narrow range inside bar) on lower volume is the trigger bar. I was actually hoping for a second IB, but it looked good on the 5 minute so I took it. Book a partial as price approaches 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH. Stopped out on balance as price dips below the 38% Fib. retracement of the ORL to the morning swing high.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1dwTFGn_AI/AAAAAAAAC1Y/voPLxqRfWhk/s400/aapl1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 12/05/2007 10:43:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper, NRIB
Tuesday, December 04, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Research In Motion Limited (USA) (NASDAQ: RIMM)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1YGP1Gn--I/AAAAAAAAC1E/aCN5Mer49CA/s400/rimm1.png
My third consecutive RIMM trade: the key take away here is yesterday's midday pivot holds as resistance as RIMM retests in early trade. Also notice that the wide opening range is not supported by the level of volume needed to build momentum. The seventh bar is NR7, followed by a shooting star - an invitation to short as price falls under the converging 5/20 MAs. My expectation on these types of contraction/expansion trades is 3 WRBs, so this one played out perfectly as price swooned, on accelerating volume, into S2 (red line).
Friday's breach of the rising wedge proved to be decidedly bearish indeed. Today's low was psychologically significant ($100.00), as well as technically significant. Not sure how this will play out, but if we get some NRIBs at the base of support, we might be setting up for more downside. The volume on this three day move shows that the bears own it. Let's see if the bulls will come out and play defense.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1YB-VGn-9I/AAAAAAAAC04/wSBbLYcYM7s/s400/rimm2.png
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Posted by Jamie at 12/04/2007 08:40:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 3_WRBs, NR7, Pivot Point, Support_Resistance
Monday, December 03, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1SrLlGn-2I/AAAAAAAAC0E/rfuR7qCd22I/s400/vmw.png I was watching VMW originally as a potential short, but after carving out a higher low, it started to make a compelling long setup especially on the 5 minute time frame below. The choppy looking 15 minute pattern is actually an ascending triangle on the lower time frame.
A second entry was possible after it held the intra-day pivot and rising 20 ema as support, but I missed it. The first PP test resulted in a wide range red hammer (not low risk), but the second test was a smaller more bullish green hammer and a higher low as well.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1SrMFGn-3I/AAAAAAAAC0M/L41zDvtUoGE/s400/vmw1.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1SrMFGn-4I/AAAAAAAAC0U/HTTAhdU6KTc/s400/rimm6.pngRIMM gapped lower on the open after another analyst valuation downgrade. After a fast move lower into S2
It did not play out as planned, and by mid-afternoon, I was anticipating a stop out, but it eventually went my way. The one caveat I had going into the trade was the distance between price and the down sloping 20 period ema on the 15 minute time frame. Ideally these should be closer because we know that this type of trade will be slow until the morning pivot low is taken out. Allowing for a retest is easier with a tighter 20 ema. The point being that, any attempt to retrace back towards the 20 should not put our initial stop in peril.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1SrMlGn-5I/AAAAAAAAC0c/Gmk1MOIDwLg/s400/rimm5.png
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Posted by Jamie at 12/03/2007 08:18:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Ascending_Triangle, Gapper, ORL
Sunday, December 02, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1MAKlGn-zI/AAAAAAAACzs/UADWcauUYpU/s400/rimm4.pngRIMM was my only trade on Friday. After gapping up on the open, it made a decisive move lower on high volume. The fourth and fifth bars were inside on declining volume in the lower half of the third bearish WRB. The S2 pivot point level (red line) held as resistance and the second inside bar closed near its low. Short as price crosses below $118.00. The setup is quite obvious on the 5 minute chart below.
The two blue lines mark potential support at the gap open from earlier in the week, and support at $113.00. As you can see from the 5 minute chart, the gap open level did not provide support on the way down, but it did provide resistance in the afternoon.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1MAK1Gn-0I/AAAAAAAACz0/tAYeN9mialE/s400/rimm1.pngThe price and volume pattern on the daily chart below looks like a bearish rising wedge, with Friday's bearish engulfing bar setting up the breach for the next leg lower. However, we also have a convergence of MAs which could grab and hold price up. We'll see how this plays out next week.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1MALlGn-1I/AAAAAAAACz8/rcFXENfWNqU/s400/rimm3.png
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Posted by Jamie at 12/02/2007 01:51:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Pivot Point, Rising wedge, Support_Resistance
Dummy Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R1LpdlGn-yI/AAAAAAAACzk/KaWajIXcfio/s400/nvda.png NVDA was my only trade on Thursday, a follow-up to Wednesday's failed retest of the the ORH. The green line marks the ORH from the previous day which held as resistance all afternoon. It's always a good idea to keep S/R lines on the charts until they are out range. This way, when they come into play, the setup is much more obvious.
Thursday's successful retest of of former resistance as support followed by NR7, setup a low risk long. Price quickly expanded to test $34.00 which did not hold, so I exited just under the round $ number for a nice quick profit leading into lunch.
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Posted by Jamie at 12/02/2007 12:18:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NR7, Support_Resistance
Wednesday, November 28, 2007Gapper Retracement Trade of the Day - DryShips Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DRYS)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R04hH3lI1fI/AAAAAAAACzc/2IWBTVEggdg/s400/drys.png
The markets gapped up on the open and almost the entire WL gapped as well. DRYS gapped up and rallied in the first hour. It carved out a bullish flag at the 38% Fib retracement of the ORL to the early swing high. The trigger bar was a doji hammer NR7, so I decided to get long. I took a partial at the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH. Shortly after, price started to retrace, so I allowed for a 38% retracement of the last leg up. Eventually price took out the previous high, but I was getting antsy because I had to fold ahead of the 2:00 release of the FED beige book.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R04dMXlI1eI/AAAAAAAACzU/asDl8ra1rTs/s400/nvda.png NVDA - 2 inside bars on declining volume. It started off very nicely but the retest of the ORH turned into a retracement so I bailed.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/28/2007 08:57:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Bull_Flag, Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper
Retracement Trade of the Day - JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:JASO)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R01o1XlI1cI/AAAAAAAACzE/RTuUFT7g0W4/s400/jaso.png
JASO (Nov. 27th) was a non-gapper retracement setup based on weakness in the energy sector.
From the 15 minute chart above we can see that JASO carved out a lower high in the opening range, followed by an inside bar and sharp fall into S2 pivot point support. From there it retraced approx. 38% of the move from the ORH to the morning swing low on declining volume, carving out a bearish flag type pattern culminating in a star-like candle with a long upper shadow and a lower high. Notice how price could not close above the downsloping 5 period ema. Short as price breaches the flag pattern.
I placed my Fibonacci extension lines from the ORH (non-gapper) to the morning swing low and my preliminary target was the 38% extension, at which point I booked a partial profit. I usually tighten the stop to the preceding WR red bar, but have been stopped out prematurely on a few trades lately, so now I am allowing for a retest of former support (morning swing low).
After tagging the 38% Fib. extension, it consolidated for a lengthy period before continuing lower. Once volume started to pick up again, it became obvious that a retest of the Nov. 12th low ($47.60) was the target.
Key criteria for the 38% retracement setup.
[*]Look for stocks that gap above or below the previous day's range. For non-gapper stocks, look for trending stocks.[*]After a decisive move in the direction of the gap or trend, look for a 38% retracement on declining volume. The retracment could be a flag type pattern or it might carve out a candlestick reversal pattern after the retracement.[*]The move back towards the swing high(low) is usually slow but orderly. Once the previous intraday high(low) is taken out, look for price and volume expansion.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/28/2007 12:09:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, Pivot Point, Retest
Monday, November 26, 2007Gapper Retracement Trade of the Day - Tesoro Corporation (Public, NYSE:TSO)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R0t_Y3lI1aI/AAAAAAAACy0/yLwBu8ivayc/s400/tso.png TSO was a gapper from the Briefing.com list. After a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the ORH to the morning swing low, TSO stalled. Short after price reverses and takes out 5 period ema. These types of setups usually move slowly until the swing low is taken out, at which point, it should accelerate as TSO did. I covered at the 50% Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL.
The gapper retracement setup should retrace approx. 38% which is a normal retracement on declining volume. After the swing low is taken out, look for volume to accelerate.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R0uCMnlI1bI/AAAAAAAACy8/GI1V5aZII9Q/s400/tso1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 11/26/2007 08:30:00 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper
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Tuesday, November 20, 2007Dummy Gapper trade of the Day - EchoStar Communications (NASDAQ: DISH)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R0Jdp3lI1WI/AAAAAAAACyU/6jy4FI4AzDA/s400/dish.pngMonday Nov. 19th - DISH caught my eye from the Briefing.com gapper list because it's also a WL stock. It gapped up on an M&A chatter and carved out a WOR with a long upper shadow. Price held support of the 200 SMA (red line) as it consolidated sideways in the upper half of the OR. As price and the upward sloping 5 period ema came together, it printed NR7 (price and volume contraction ahead of expansion). I entered long on a B&B setup above the blue line. I moved my stop up aggressively in order to preserve profits and I was stopped out on the first sign of weakness.
From the 5 minute chart below, notice how DISH carved out a higher low on the second pullback from the base.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/R0JdqXlI1XI/AAAAAAAACyc/pEd7JpWLmzI/s400/dish1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 11/20/2007 10:06:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7
Wednesday, November 14, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Canadian Solar Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSIQ)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzuTg3lI1VI/AAAAAAAACyM/rGbt4BltSbU/s400/csiq.png CSIQ was an earnings gap from the Briefing.com gapper list. Not sure where they came up with the name as this is a Chinese co., not Canadian. Anyway, after gapping up, it traded sideways until price and the rising 5 period ema came together. After carving out a NRB on very low volume, price started to expand. I went long before it took out the ORH - mini B&B or a base within a base. Once the ORH was taken out, it ran up quickly to the 50% Fibonacci extension level of the previous day low to the ORH. I locked in a partial and I was stopped out on the balance as price started to retrace following a star with a long upper shadow.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/14/2007 07:38:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Gapper, NRB
Tuesday, November 13, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Technical Bounce
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzpgXlXkZGI/AAAAAAAACx8/q7A7YT-oGo0/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzpgXlXkZHI/AAAAAAAACyE/BFTuJCI5Ys4/s400/cboe.pngMarket volatility decreased sharply today as the equities staged a technical bounce. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) closed -6.99 (-22.5%) to 24.10, while the tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) closed -5.23 (-15.0%) to 29.71. The CBOE put/call ratio closed at 1.21, indicating more active put trading than call trading. The TRIN ended the session under 0.50 (0.32) which bodes well for continuation tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/13/2007 09:40:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Nash-Finch Company (Public, NASDAQ:NAFC)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzpFqFXkZEI/AAAAAAAACxs/_uTsx4aWGNU/s400/nafc.png I ran a momentum scan midday and found NAFC. The scan looks for NASDAQ stocks trading at 20% higher volume and 10% higher price than the previous day. Since I run this scan late in the morning, I'm looking for a normal retracement from the morning swing high to set up a second leg. I define a normal retracement as 38% from the ORL to the morning swing high. The other criteria to look for is lower volume on the retracement (higher volume is indicative of a reversal) and that price does not breach the rising 20 period ema on the retracement.
NAFC had an orderly retracement and stopped at the 38% Fib level, however, it didn't carve out an obvious candlestick reversal pattern, so I waited until price took out the previous red bar before entering long. I took a partial as price retested the morning swing high and held the balance for an additional 38% Fib. extension.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzpFqlXkZFI/AAAAAAAACx0/tYs-c1Yuzaw/s400/cal.png CAL was a play on lower oil. After gapping open it retraced and swung back above the ORH on a WR bullish bar then printed 2 inside bars in the upper range of the WRB, setting up a low risk long.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/13/2007 07:45:00 PM 7 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Monday, November 12, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - No Defence from Bulls
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzkDVlXkY_I/AAAAAAAACxA/o2ZjRuVe62Q/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzkDV1XkZAI/AAAAAAAACxI/WP0SBpukN-U/s400/comp15.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzkDV1XkZBI/AAAAAAAACxQ/yenEUn_Z-3M/s400/cboe.pngCBOE Put/Call ratio reading below 1.00 suggests more active call buying than put trading.
VXN volatility Index is testing the August highs.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzkDWFXkZCI/AAAAAAAACxY/Vy8ktuEAr54/s400/vxn.pngThe late day slide left the NASDAQ Comp, down as much as 8.5% over the last four days alone (Nasdaq 100 -11%) and sitting just above its 200 sma. The aggressive nature of this decline has created a deeply oversold posture but the short term pattern suggests potential for further weakness into Tuesday unless we see some sustained gains back above today's close in early trade.
Today's movement came from higher than avg volume with decliners outpacing advancers (1250/1787) with new lows outpacing new highs (58/267).
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: OWW +8.8%; HINT +6.5%; BOBE +4.3%; ESE +3.1%; JOBS +3.0%; BIDZ +2.7%; FACE +2.6%. Trading Down: SNUS
-8.0%; CSR -2.7%; RWC -1.1%; WX -1.0%.
Other News:
Trading Up: WAB +4.1% (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB) will replace Florida Rock Industries (FRK) in the S&P MidCap 400); IAG +2.5% (announces appointment of Gordon Stothart as Chief Operating Officer); CTS +2.3% (announces realignment of operations and workforce reduction); BRE +1.7% (BRE Properties will replace United Rentals in the S&P MidCap 400); HALO +1.3% (added to Nasdaq Biotech Index); NTG +1.2% (to acquire Norwegian separator technology co, ConSepT AS; The transaction is expected to be accretive to earnings); EAT +1.1% (signs co investment deal with CMR); ADCT +1.1% (announces agreement to acquire Century Man Communication for $55 mln; expected to be dilutive to GAAP earnings per share in the first year or two of ops)... Trading Down: ADBE -3.2% (names Shantanu Narayen Chief Executive Officer); ALTH -1.9% (initiates study of RH1 in patients with advanced solid tumors or non-hodgkin's lymphoma); EBHI -1.0% (announces key executive appointments).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzkH41XkZDI/AAAAAAAACxg/vyVAB13tssc/s400/osip.pngDNA for OSIP rumor making the rounds. OSIP one of the few bullish charts on my radar.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/12/2007 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rzjxw1XkY8I/AAAAAAAACwo/iKZr1WTUrLg/s400/nvda.png The first chart is the daily time frame for NVDA. The blue lines highlight the pivot points. The upper line is positioned on the pivot low from Friday and Oct. and the lower blue line marks the pivot high from July. Once the pivots were taken out, NVDA set up a nice short as we can see from the 15 minute chart below. The target was the green line above around $30.40.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzjxxVXkY9I/AAAAAAAACww/qyU9ccyMJR8/s400/nvda1.png After taking out the first PP, NVDA consolidated in the lower half of the previous WRB. Price could not regain the lost PP and the third consolidation bar was bearish. I shorted a break of $32.00 and took a partial as price approached $31.00. NVDA consolidated at the base of S2 (red line) for a lengthy period before continuing lower. It surpassed the target into the close on accelerating volume.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzjxxVXkY-I/AAAAAAAACw4/g6d2b9tA9Fc/s400/pot.png
The chart above is the TSX chart for POT - very similar to the NYSE chart. POT opened very weak and as it was consolidating the first leg down, started printing lower highs leading into a NRIB which set up the perfect short. The BO bar was WR and closed on its lows, taking out the morning swing low. I was looking for three WRBs, but price started to consolidate after only two, so I took a partial. I was stopped out on the balance when POT rallied back up to retest the morning swing low (bummer).
Both NVDA and POT are watch list stocks. POT was also an HCPG pick from last night.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/12/2007 07:35:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NRIB, NVDA, Pivot Point
Sunday, November 11, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzdtF1XkY5I/AAAAAAAACwM/9LGdb3KqbJc/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzdtGFXkY6I/AAAAAAAACwU/2psylTslxQ0/s400/spx.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzdtGVXkY7I/AAAAAAAACwc/XfgVVgkJhi0/s400/namo.pngAlthough down substantially from the previous two sessions, the markets were hit again in the early going amid additional credit issues/write downs (WB, BCS) and a disappointing outlook in technology from QCOM. The averages slipped under Thursday's lows and attempted to pick themselves up but were met with some aggressive selling into the close ahead of the banking long weekend. Still, the Comp held at the 50% retracement of the Aug-Oct rally at 2624 (session low 2624), while the S&P 500 stabilized near the 62% retracement at 1449 (session low 1448.51).
A bounce in the recent market laggards such as Finance, Banking, Housing Insurance and Broker helped pace the way during the attempted rebound . Unfortunately, the buy side interest was limited given the size of the drop off of Tuesday highs and going into a long weekend.
Sectors weighing on the action included: Retail -3.2%, Software -3%, Tobacco -3%, Computer-Hardware -2.8%, Internet -2.8%, Networking -2.7%, Airline -2.7%, Steel -2.6% Chemical -2.3%, Restaurant -2%, and Transports -2%. The weak close trimmed the gainers list which included: Disk Drive +1.7%, Housing +1.3%, Insurance +0.5%, Bank +0.4% and Casino +0.4%. Despite closing near sessions lows, the extended posture of the technicals suggests the potential for a technical bounce early next week.
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: LEAP -71.3%, MNTA -58.4%, NSTK -56.1%, KNXA -38.8%, CLWR -37.6%, EBS -37.6%, PRGX -36.9%, HDNG -36.4%, BID -34.7%, NAHC -33.4%, GVHR -32%, MTZ -31.8%, DHX -30.3%, SAM -30%, AMRI -29.3%, ZUMZ -29.2%, ABH -29.2%, CCRT -29.1%, ARII -29.1%, DTPI -29%, PRS -28.7%, HANS -28.3%, IQW -28.2%, PRKR -28.2%, LLNW -27.6%, CISG -26.8%, EJ -26.8%, DSX -26.7%, MDRX -26.6%, IIG -26.2%, PCS -26.2%, ACAD -25.9%, MALL -25.7%, WX -25.3%, NED -25.1%, CTB -24.3%.
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: RSTO 122.8%, DIVX 42.7%, MFLX 34.4%, AGO 34.4%, SPC 32.2%, AFR 25.7%, RWT 25.4%, KND 25.4%, BSMD 24.5%, CBK 22.8%, VCI 22.8%, WCG 21.7%, TRLG 21.6%, HL 21.2%, GYMB 19.3%, HMN 19.1%, RAS 18.4%, PBR 17.8%, MVL 17.4%, BR 17%, BIOS 16.7%, AIXG 16.6%, ABK 16.8%, CEVA 16.5%, EXAS 16.1%, ERES 16%, REW 15.9%, PBR.A 15.9%, BRS 15.9%, PMI 15.7%, PSPT 15.7%, RAMR 15.7%, ONXX 15.7%, RDN 15.7%, MTG 15.3%, TXCO 15.3%, MBT 15.3%, ENER 15.1%, PCLN 15%, ESLR 14.9%.
NYSE October short interest highlights:
Earlier this week NYSE released its October short interest data, which was collected on the 15th. According to Bloomberg, the stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float include: BZH 91%; WCI 77%; HOV 72%; IMB 59%; TOA 59%; FED 56%; TWP 54%; BHS 52%; SPF 52%; AXR 51%; DSL 50%; G 46%; MHO 44%; MTH 44%; HEI 42%... The biggest increases in short-interest as a percentage of the float, from mid-September to mid-October, are as follows: XJT's short interest rose to 25% of the float from 12%; RDN is up to 24% from 14%; PFB up to 22% from 13%; VMW up to 35% from 26%; CMG up to 36% from 26%; HAR up to 9% from 1%; SPF up to 52% from 44%; SCA up to 14% from 7%; HCR up to 16% from 10%; IMB up to 59% from 54%... The biggest decreases in short-interest from mid- September to mid-October are as follows: BZH's short interest dropped to 91% from 99%; MA down to 14% from 19%; TOA down to 59% from 64%; ORA down to 8% from 12%; BIG down to 28% from 32%; AUY down to 2% from 5%; NCS down to 14% from 17%; MMC down to 3% from 6%; GWW down to 7% from 10%; VSE down to 15% from 17%.
NASDAQ October short interest highlights:
Earlier this week NASDAQ released its October short interest data, which was collected on the 15th. According to Bloomberg, the stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float include: USNA 106%; CCRT 75%; CONN 69%; GLBC 68%; MDTL 64%; NTRI 57%; TRLG 56%; CORS 54%; JOSB 50%; TGIC 49%; PRAA 45%; RATE 44%; CHNR 44%; FTEK 44%; BKUNA 43%... The biggest increases in short-interest as a percentage of the float, from mid-September to mid-October, are as follows: CHNR's short interest rose to 44% of the float from 14%; LLNW is up to 17% from 5%; WBMD up to 34% from 22%; ATHN up to 18% from 6%; NTRI up to 57% from 46%; INFN up to 20% from 9%; HNSN up to 26% from 15%; CALM up to 30% from 22%; EFUT up to 30% from 22%; STAR up to 9% from 1%... The biggest decreases in short-interest from mid-September to mid-October are as follows: COMV's short interest dropped to 11% from 35%; HINT down to 20% from 32%; QNTA down to 0% from 8%; CONN down to 69% from 75%; PRGX down to 2% from 8%; EEFT down to 15% from 19%; WERN down to 24% from 28%; MNTA down to 36% from 40%; ITMN down to 16% from 20%; CCRT down to 75% from 79%.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/11/2007 03:57:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci_retracement, NASDAQ
Trade of the Day - Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzcKxVXkY2I/AAAAAAAACv0/RvviMr0ubPU/s400/crox3.png A disappointing earnings report sent CROX into a free fall. Once it closed below its 200 DMA on the daily, it wasn't able to recapture it on a closing basis, carving out two narrow range inside bars (NRIBs) on declining volume. Despite being oversold the NRIBs in the lower half of the previous WRB were signalling more selling to come - CROX is a WL stock and it was a HCPG pick as well.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzcKxlXkY3I/AAAAAAAACv8/_EX4K9F8fwI/s400/crox.png As you can see from the 15 minute timeframe above, CROX didn't waste any time on Thursday. The second bar manages to hold support on a closing basis, but the third bar closes into S2 (red line). The fourth bar retests former support, but prints a long upper shadow signalling a failure. I shorted a break of the fourth bar low as the down sloping 5 period ema was in very close proximity. I took a partial after three WRBs and covered the balance after it reversed sharply on higher volume.
On Friday CROX set up another trade, this time a bullish flag BO. I took a partial as price rallied into the down sloping 50 MA and exited the balance when resistance at the blue line held on the first test.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzcKx1XkY4I/AAAAAAAACwE/OXsyOWqFGa8/s400/rim.png The above chart is the Canadian RIMM chart on the TSE for Thursday which is almost identical to the NASDAQ chart except for price.
I was looking to short on a break of a bearish flag, but it didn't break on the fourth bar as planned so I waited thinking it might print a few inside bars. Instead it went into offset mode which was a bit confusing especially with a green hammer. However, the green hammer didn't follow through and was offset a while later with a red hanging man. I shorted as price confirmed and broke below the hanging man and locked in some profit after three WRBs. The rest of the trade was text book - keep moving stop just above previous bar high.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/11/2007 11:45:00 AM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Bull_Flag, NRIB, Support_Resistance
Thursday, November 08, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzL3fVXkY1I/AAAAAAAACvs/YQVuczRJOSU/s400/grmn.png
GRMN gapped down on earnings (Briefing.com list) and carved out a bearish flag (2 inside bars on declining volume). Short on break of third bar low with a partial as price approaches S2 (red line). Price consolidated sideways in a narrow range just under S2 for close to an hour before continuing lower. I covered the balance as price approached the round $ number $90.00.
The key takeaway here is that GRMN tried to recapture the previous day's lower range in the early going but it failed. Once it took out Monday's low there was virtually no support until $87.00.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/08/2007 06:42:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Dummy, Gapper, Pivot Point
Tuesday, November 06, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Nortel Networks Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:NT)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RzEm8CLj0RI/AAAAAAAACvc/WQFowagQ9b4/s400/nt.png NT was an earnings gap that took out the ORH on the next bar. Eventually it carved out a base & break setup at the early swing high (almost a C&H) and rallied into the close along with the markets. The key take away on this type of setup is the orderly retracement on declining volume and the higher lows leading into the late day BO. After a big thrust like this one on the open, price needs plenty of time to consolidate the move so you need a lot of patience before the second leg up develops.
Because of the base, I place my Fib extension from the previous day low to the base as opposed to ORH. The ORH loses its significance once it has been taken out on a closing basis.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/06/2007 09:44:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
Monday, November 05, 2007Trade Analysis - DaVita Inc. (Public, NYSE:DVA)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry_ZjyLj0PI/AAAAAAAACvM/393SQdGAawg/s400/dva.pngThe DVA trade above failed when the 7th bar could not recapture the 20 ema on a closing basis. The doji like stick with long upper wick foreshadowed further weakness. As soon as price moved below the doji, it was time to scratch the trade.
The blue line at the intra-day pivot P is a good base. The ORL on Friday on one side and the two intra-day pivots from underneath create a solid base. If price moves back up to the base tomorrow, it might offer a better opportunity.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry_ZjyLj0QI/AAAAAAAACvU/u7v0HthBDTg/s400/crox.png Just wanted to follow-up on CROX which sold off again today. I think its oversold and if price can regain the lower blue line and the 50MA (green), it should rally back up to $50.00
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Posted by Jamie at 11/05/2007 09:59:00 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Pivot Point
Dummy Trade of the Day - athenahealth, Inc (Public, NASDAQ:ATHN)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry_SbyLj0NI/AAAAAAAACu8/RaNZCYYBiFc/s400/athn.png I traded ATHN on Friday and mentioned in my post that this was a potential BO candidate. Hope you guys added it to your WL.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry_ScCLj0OI/AAAAAAAACvE/2Bg-X1-k34o/s400/athn1.pngDespite market weakness, ATHN was a momentum continuation play as it took out its daily pivot high and quickly rallied up to R2, paused briefly, before extending further. Midday it retraced 38% of the move from the ORL to the morning swing high - 38% is a normal retracement and often sets ups a second leg.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/05/2007 09:22:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Fibonacci_retracement, Pivot Point
Sunday, November 04, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Fight Back
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry6NgCLj0MI/AAAAAAAACu0/7ph002b3Zvw/s400/comp.png Technically, we have a potential hammer reversal, however, there is a black cloud over the market with respect to the Finance sector. First MER and now Citi's Prince is out. Financials weighing on Asian markets as well as U.S, futures.
Broad market volatility moved higher this week with the VIX up 24% from last Friday's close, now at 24.25. This move in volatility took place with a sell-off in the S&P 500 taking the index down ~2% on the week. While broad market volatility moved higher this week, tech-focused volatility is little changed from last Friday's close with the VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) up just 3% on the week at 25.75. This comes with the Nasdaq Composite roughly unchanged on the week, as much of this week's broader market weakness was centered around financial names.
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: ABK -47.7%, LCAV -44.3%, SWHC -41.5%, SCA -39.7%, AGO -36.4%, RAMR -35.8%, PMI -32.9%, SMSI -32.9%, MBI -32.5%, GNCMA -32.2%, CROX -30.9%, MI -30.9%, VLCM -29.7%, CLUB -29.6%, FARO -28.5%, PCBC -28.4%, VNDA -28.3%, CSK -28.1%, NSIT -27.6%, CPSL -27.2%, FBC -26.8%, CSR -26.2%, GLUU -25.4%, ASGN -25.4%, CKSW -25.1%, LFG -24.7%, ITRI -24.6%, TWPG -24.5%, PTI -24.5%, YSI -23.7%, MRT -23.2%, FTK -22.7%, RGR -22.3%, AMMD -22%, ADPI -22%, BLDR -21.7%, BWLD -21.7%, OPNT -21.4%, PLX -21.2%, PRXI -21.2%, LNET -21.1%, HWCC -21.1%, EVC -20.7%, WNC -20.7%, HMN -20.7%, TGIC -20.6%, VRX -20.5%, ONNN -20.4%, ARP -19.9%, FDP -19.9%, ERES -19.8%, BKUNA -19.5%, SSYS -19.5%, BZH -19.4%, MNC -19.3%, IMB -19.3%, OPXT -19.3%.
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: PRO 29.8%, CSIQ 29.6%, FCGI 29.6%, PSEM 29.4%, SPRD 28.5%, EZEM 27%, UTHR 26.7%, SOHU 25.6%, BDY 25.4%, PRGO 25.4%, RSYS 25.3%, SIRF 23.3%, BQI 23%, PPO 22.7%, EHTH 22.4%, ATHR 21.3%, ASTIZ 20.3%, QRCP 20%, CBI 19.9%, SXE 19.3%, MA 19.2% SYNA 18.7%, WATG 18.4%, SSRX 17.7%, LUNA 17.5%, EGT 17.5%, RICK 17.4%, CFSG 17.2%, CRXX 17.2%, BGFV 16.8%, OTEX 16.8%, HOS 15.8%, CRME 15.6%, CTCM 15.6%, WDC 15.3%, HEM 15.3%, AG 15.3%, IMA 15.3%, MSTR 15.3%, AUTH 15.2%, PLXS 15.1%, AMED 15.1%, ESLR 15%, XPRT 15%, MANT 15%, FLS 14.9%, NTES 14.8%, VGZ 14.7%, SKF 14.4%, FRG 14.4%, EQIX 14.3%, CAVM 13.6%, GLT 13.6%, CVLT 13.6%, GLBL 13.6%, IDSY 13.5%, BIDU 1.4%, HMSY 13.5%, TWLL 13.2%.
Of the hundreds of companies reporting earnings the week of Nov 5th-9th some of the bigger names include: Monday: BKC, CAPA, MVL, MFLX, NXG, OMRI, TTI, TLCV, ASEI, APC, AUDC, CECO, CDR, DIVX, LOCM, and WMS... Tuesday: ABY, ADM, CTSH, EXPD, FTEK, LEA, TAP, NT, VLO, BEXP, INAP, and OVEN... Wednesday: DTV, FLR, FWLT, FTO, GM, MGAM, PLA, WNR, GRRF, CSCO, CTRP, FSLR, IO, JCOM, KNXA, NTES, and WBMD... Thursday: AIRM, CVC, CRZO, XTXI, FLO, F, RMIX, URBN, VG, CELL, CEPH, COGO, JDSA, MIPS, NVDA, QCOM, PCLN, and DIS... Friday: BRKS, CLWR, DRS, GG, JASO, IART, and SIN.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/04/2007 10:25:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Mail Bag
CROX
I've enjoyed your blog over the last year. Curious about your thoughts on CROX and where you think buyers would support the price.There is considerable support at the 47ish on the chart which also happens to be the 200dma (where it closed on Friday as well), support at 44.10 from the capitulation high volume day in August too. Do you think these will hold? if not, where would you expect buyers to stepin?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry5yxCLj0II/AAAAAAAACuU/FUKnG1GBcGc/s400/crox.png The first chart is the daily time frame for CROX. We see that Friday's low lines up nicely with pivot point support which has been in play several times since last June as highlighted by the blue arrows. Other key take aways here are the capitulation volume over the last two sessions and the proximity of the rising 200 DMA. The angle of the MA is important because a flat or down sloping 200 DMA is not as supportive as a rising MA.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry5yxSLj0JI/AAAAAAAACuc/EUPWqXy1wz4/s400/crox1.png The second chart is the weekly time frame where we can see that CROX has retraced almost 50% from the all time low to last week's high. Also note the wide bearish engulfing bar.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry5yxiLj0KI/AAAAAAAACuk/zTmNx0x56zY/s400/crox2.png The third chart is the 15 minute time frame. The key takeaway here is the blue line which is the intra-day PP. Price tested and failed the $50.00 area on Thursday and Friday. Usually the third test is the one that succeeds, so set an alert at this level for a potential BO.
If price takes out Friday's low, look for support on a test of the 200 DMA.
Fibonacci:
The SIRF chart below was traded on Thursday (day after wide gap) and the question is how to place Fib extension lines.
If a stock does not extend to the 38% level on the gap day, I usually leave the Fibs intact and look for an extension the following day. This is quite common for very wide gaps. Thursday SIRF gapped slightly lower and held support of the ORH from the previous day as support on a closing basis. The blue line held as intra-day support on a closing basis on Wednesday afternoon and on Thursday it held as resistance in early trade. Once price took out the blue line, it was safe to go long. Price then eventually extended just pennies shy of the target 38%.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ry5yxyLj0LI/AAAAAAAACus/WyJ_F46Eniw/s400/sirf.png
Reader Feedback
Hi Jamie, I just would like to update you on my performance this month (the first full month since I first emailed you for some help). I finished the month up 13R with a win rate of 50% and an expectancy of 0.94. I feel good about my results and think that I may truly be successful over the long term. No doubt that your advice was instrumental in my success and I appreciate the time you took to answer my questions.
Not having anyone to confer with about trading, let alone someone to teach me, makes the learning curve that much steeper. I only do this part time and often I find myself trying to do it from the desk of my full time job which I have learned is very difficult to do as trading requires undivided attention and focus.
I look forward to continued learning from your blog.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/04/2007 08:23:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Pivot Point, Support
Friday, November 02, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - athenahealth, Inc (Public, NASDAQ:ATHN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyvC3CLj0GI/AAAAAAAACuE/NEPDMsU4ZUM/s400/athn1.png ATHN gapped up on earnings and carved out an inverted hammer. The next two bars were inside on declining volume. The second inside bar was a bullish green hammer so I took a dummy long above the second bar high. The BO bar closed above the ORH. After that we consolidated below and above R2 before momentum finally kicked in. I took a partial at the 50% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH and closed at 75% ( mismanaged the last exit - should have been faster on that WRB).
ATHN is a recent IPO. As you can see from the daily chart below, it tested its all time swing high today. If it breaks out of this base, I think we could see more volume come into the stock. I'm adding it my WL.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyvC3SLj0HI/AAAAAAAACuM/pRDfVcaDsMg/s400/athn.png
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Posted by Jamie at 11/02/2007 08:35:00 PM 16 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ryu_UCLj0FI/AAAAAAAACt8/SSywVc4P5Sk/s400/crox.png CROX gapped down on earnings Thursday morning and after a lot of offsets, it finally started to look interesting as price and the down sloping ema started to come together. It carved out a NR7, mini gravestone doji at the base of the ORL, so I decided to take a dummy short. I took a partial at the round $50.00 thinking it might catch a bid at this level. However, it continued lower and couldn't even manage to close at $50.00 on the consolidation., before heading lower in the last hour. The Fibonacci extension from the previous day high to the ORL did not exceed 25%, but it didn't have to because there was plenty of money to be made between the ORL and 25% because of the size of the gap.
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Posted by Jamie at 11/02/2007 08:18:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Momentum
Wednesday, October 31, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - TriQuint Semiconductor (Public, NASDAQ:TQNT)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RykoGSLj0DI/AAAAAAAACss/6cpZdbhibCQ/s400/tqnt1.png TQNT carved out two inside bars on declining volume on the daily timeframe above. It was in an established upward trend, so it was just a matter of waiting for price to break out of the consolidation base.
This morning it setup a low risk entry above yesterday's swing high. The nice thing about this trade is that it took off well ahead of the Fed announcement.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RykoGiLj0EI/AAAAAAAACs0/TAdFAmCi_CE/s400/tqnt.png
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Posted by Jamie at 10/31/2007 08:59:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Base and Break, Dummy
Tuesday, October 30, 2007Scheduling Problems
Unfortunately, due to scheduling problems, I will be discontinuing the beloved Pre-Market Post for now. Hopefully, things will get back to normal in due course.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2007 08:28:00 PM 12 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pre-Market
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Atheros Communications, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ATHR)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyeVkSLj0BI/AAAAAAAACsc/cdRQ0Lx47Cs/s400/athr.png ATHR was an earnings gap from the Briefing.com list. It set up a low risk B&B after consolidating sideways. Also, notice that the bar prior to the trigger bar is NR7 and inside. I took a partial as price retested the ORH. I was hoping for a C&H to develop, but eventually it became clear that it was retracing back to the rising 20 EMA, so I closed the balance of my position.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyeVkyLj0CI/AAAAAAAACsk/jq3dZgTPRIY/s400/nvda.png NVDA, from the WL also gapped up and carved out 2 inside bars on declining volume as it consolidated under R2. I went long on a break of the base and took a partial at $35.50, closing the position on weakness shortly after.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2007 04:33:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Base and Break, Dummy, Gapper
Monday, October 29, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Yahoo! Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:YHOO)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyaJHyLj0AI/AAAAAAAACsU/ZgWffmUzB7I/s400/YHOO.pngOver the weekend I noticed that I had missed a really nice momo move in YHOO on Friday. Today I was watching it on the open. The OR was wide and red, closing just above support of P. The next bar was NR on declining volume and almost inside. I placed a sell stop just below the second bar low thinking it would consolidate a bit more before breaking down, but it was so weak that it immediately broke out of the OR with another WRB that almost tagged S1. I took a partial on the following bar and tightened my stop. As expected, it consolidated the move over a long period as it traded in a narrow range. Eventually, by mid-afternoon it extended further in my direction. I decided to close the position after it carved out a near perfect green hammer (potential reversal).
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Posted by Jamie at 10/29/2007 09:28:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, ORB, Pivot Point
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Sunday, October 28, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Gap to Top of Trading Range
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RySz3CLjz_I/AAAAAAAACsM/xsIfFSZUWDU/s400/comp15.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RySyLiLjz8I/AAAAAAAACr0/4KTjWLrDWrQ/s400/qqqq.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RySyLyLjz9I/AAAAAAAACr8/ygl-g7RBef8/s400/spx.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RySyMCLjz-I/AAAAAAAACsE/2q4R9a8erzs/s400/namo.png
Markets gapped up Friday on MSFT earnings and CFC guidance. Technology and Finance together comprise 35% of the S&P, so with MSFT and CFC as positive catalysts, it had to move markets higher. However, there was no follow-thru on the NAZ. As we can see from the 15 minute time frame above, the NAZ spent the morning retracing back to support at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous day low to the ORH. Also, note that the volume on the QQQQ chart is dismal. What's more, the volume pattern in general for the Qs has been higher on the sell side in the past few weeks as momentum weakens. With the exception of the previous Friday's sell off, volatility on the SPX has been lower as it slowly crawls back towards a retest of former support (now resistance).
In a way, Countrywide stole Microsoft's thunder, but at the end of the day, it turned out that there was plenty of buying interest to go around. All 10 major economic sectors ended the session with a gain and seven - financial (+2.5%), technology (+2.4%), materials (+1.7%), utilities (+1.5%), energy (+1.1%), telecom (+1.1%) and consumer discretionary (+1.0%) - scored gains of 1.0% or more.
A big week ahead in terms of economics, with Fed policy on Wednesday and jobs data on Friday. The market has already priced in a 0.25 basis pt. rate cut, so it'll be interesting to see how things play out. Is the market getting ahead of itself or does the data really support another rate cut? Or does it even matter, if Big Ben has his mind set on pleasing the markets???
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: WSFG -55%, EPAX -51.5%, TRID -49.1%, PALM -46.6%, RGR -37.2%, VDSI -33.3%, ORCC -33.1%, RVBD -32%, ALGN -31.5%, ADVNA -30.5%, ADVNB -30.2%, BBSI -26.7%, ACLI -26.4%, SCA -25.9%, HAFC -24.3%, PFB -23.9%, ABK -23.1%, ANAD -22.5%, HLYS -21.3%, ASTE -21.2%, CLAY -20.5%, FFIV -19.8%, BCSI -19.6%, SPAR -19.2%, VVTV -18.9%, ALTR -18.6%, UCTT -18.5%, GVA -18.4%, MINI -18.3%, ICTG -18.1%, BRCM -17.7%, BW -17.5%, SVVS -16.3%, EFII -16.0%, MGI -15.6%, FORM -15.6%, CALD -15.4%, CATS -15.3%, ZMH -14.7%, RDN -14.4%, SUPX -14.2%, MBI -14.2%, UIS -14.1%, PLT -14%, ARNA -13.9%, OREX -13.9%, HYTM -13.8%.
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: TMTA +166.3%, DV +46.4%, DAIO +44.8%, MRCY +44%, RTSX +43.1%, SCON +34%, ASIA +31.5%, WWIN +31.5%, SCSC +31.2%, BZH +30.6%, VSL +30%, TRCR +29.4%, ZRAN +28.5%, CDS +28.2%, FLML +27.1%, RNOW 19.8%, ABAX +26.2%, CMCO +26.1%, CYD +25.6%, EJ +24.2%, ATRM +23.4%, MICC +23.2%, TSO +23.1%, ARCI +22.9%, MTH +22.7%, MEE +22.4%, ASCA +22.3%, MTL +22%, HMIN +21.9%, VGZ +21.7%, CPWR +21.4%, SOHU +21.4%, VPRT +21.3%, FDP +21.2%, GHDX +20.6%, AXYS +20.5%, ANO +20.5%, CEC +20.4%, GMO +20.2%, SLT +20.2%, WFR +20.1%, AVTR +20.1%, BOW +20%, HXL +20%, IBN +19.8%, EDU +19.6%, LUNA +19.6%, SPWR +19.6%, CSH +19.6%, IDP +19.3%, DXPE +19.1%, AMRI +19%, GHM +19%, USEG +18.8%, NUVA +18.7%, TQNT +18.4%, HDB +18.2%, RYL +18%, WDR +18%, GLDN +17.8%, MTE +17.8%, FMER +17.7%, WU +17.7%, VAR +17.4%, EPAY +17.4%, PSD +17.3%, STP +17.2%.
Companies of interest reporting this week: Monday - HUM,K, NWA, SCHN, VZ, ATHR, CO, FDG, PWAV, SOHU, UHS, VRTX. Tuesday - AL, BEAV, CRDN, FSRV, GT, HLT, MGM, PG, SIRI, TEVA, X, UA, CMG, DWA, IVGN, WYNN. Wednesday - ALU, GRMN, KFT,MA, NEM, SGR, WY, ABX, MET, SMSI, SUN. Thursday - CNQ, EK, ZEUS, BEBE, CROX, ERTS, ITRI, LDK, OTEX, SYNA. Friday - DUK, CI, CVX, LNT
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Posted by Jamie at 10/28/2007 11:58:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci_retracement, NASDAQ
Friday, October 26, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Countrywide Financial Corporation (Public, NYSE:CFC)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyJLpiLjz7I/AAAAAAAACrs/uYUuymRZTt8/s400/cfc.png CFC was a Briefing.com gapper. After initial weakness, it started consolidating sideways, eventually carving out a flat, narrow base. I entered long after price closed above the base. I placed the Fib extension from the previous day low to the base. As expected price consolidated as it tested the ORH. The consolidation was orderly and price moved higher. I took a partial at the 50% extension and closed the balance when price stalled at the 62% level.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyJIdCLjz6I/AAAAAAAACrk/WIZ1OFdm6D4/s400/rio.png RIO, a gapper from the WL, carved out an orderly base with NR7 trigger bar. I took a partial at the 38% Fib extension of the previous day low to the base as price was close to daily pivot. The next bar was a star so I tightened the stop.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/26/2007 04:03:00 PM 16 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Watchlist
Thursday, October 25, 2007Cup & Handle - Open Text Corporation (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:OTEX)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyDu-yLjz3I/AAAAAAAACrM/1AEdn0ECXIo/s400/otex.png OTEX was a B&B candidate on the daily chart above.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyDu_CLjz4I/AAAAAAAACrU/kqVDgiwwUjA/s400/otex2.png It opened on the base (blue line) and retraced sharply off the open. It then carved out a base at the red line which represents an intra-day resistance level from yesterday. I took a long position on the break of red line and a partial on test of ORH. OTEX eventually carved out a perfect C&H pattern which consolidated nicely prior to the break where I re-entered my original share size. In reference to the trading tip in my last post, OTEX is a good example of price moving into the base and consolidating with a few NRBs prior to the actual BO.
Normal Fib. extension for a C&H pattern is 100%, however, when that level was reached I only had two WRBs on my 15 min. chart instead of my usual three, so took a partial and closed the balance 5 minutes later.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyDu_SLjz5I/AAAAAAAACrc/6Xw9ME-tqIg/s400/otex1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 10/25/2007 03:28:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AKAM)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyDlsiLjzzI/AAAAAAAACqs/guS3UHJBk2w/s400/akam2.png The first chart is the daily time frame for AKAM which gapped up on the open due to earnings. I was looking for a suitable base as an entry point which I identified as the August swing high (see blue arrow) and then plotted the blue line on the lower time frame to see how price would react.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyDltCLjz0I/AAAAAAAACq0/jrZJWpROwQs/s400/akam1.png After consolidating the gap briefly, price moved back to the blue line. On the 5 min. time frame, we see that it did this on a WRB. I waited until price broke out and consolidated above the line and then took a long entry. I took a partial at the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the base (blue line). After that I was looking for a normal retracement of 38% from the morning low to the swing high.
However, on the 15 min. chart below, we see that AKAM carved out a red star with a long upper shadow, followed by two inside bars on lower volume. That looked like a short, so I tightened the stop below the star and I was stopped out.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RyDmDiLjz2I/AAAAAAAACrE/ecGYgnevoUg/s400/akam3.png
Trading tip in reference to 5 min. chart - Normally, price will consolidate at the base. Ideally, you want price to consolidate before the break, so you can enter on the actual break. However, if price breaks the base with a WRB or a thrust from a series of smaller bars, it will usually consolidate after the break, so it's best to wait for a lower risk entry point after the consolidation as I did on the AKAM trade. If price, tests the base and then consolidates sideways with NRBs, I usually buy the actual break.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/25/2007 02:50:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Dummy, Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper
Wednesday, October 24, 2007Dummy Gapper (Short) Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx_7jiLjzwI/AAAAAAAACqU/X95lI6N5shg/s400/AMZN2.pngAMZN gapped down on a disappointing earnings report. I entered short on a break 6th - 5 min. bar low and covered when price approached the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx_7jyLjzxI/AAAAAAAACqc/T06BKgBG0ao/s400/brcm.png BRCM also gapped down on disappointing earnings. It spent most of the morning consolidating the gap in a sideways trade, printing a number of doji sticks. Since dojis represent indecision, I decided to place a sell stop order below the base. After triggering, if fell but attempted to reverse, carving a bullish morning star and I was just about to close the trade but the morning star didn't confirm and price started moving lower, so I stayed in.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx_7kCLjzyI/AAAAAAAACqk/-mBNaqagfYs/s400/akam.png AKAM was a bearish flag breakout - weakness ahead of earnings. I took a partial after a 1 pt. gain and folded shortly after. I don't like to overstay these pre-earnings trades as they can be extremely unpredictable.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2007 10:11:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Bearish_Flag, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Morning_Star
Tuesday, October 23, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx5oPvWy3wI/AAAAAAAACpo/oi6hRoy_J0Y/s400/AMZN1.png AMZN gapped up on the open and carved out a flat base following the 15 minute OR. These flat base breakouts can be very powerful even though they are extremely boring to watch, stick after stick. I waited for price to break and then consolidate the break as can be seen on the 5 minute time frame below. I managed the trade on the 15 minute time frame and closed the position after three WRBs. I place my Fibonacci extension from the previous day low to the base as opposed to the ORH. Price reached the 62% Fib. extension on the third WRB.
After extending 62%, AMZN retraced 38% on the move from the ORL. This is a normal retracement and usually means that the stock is preparing for the next leg up.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx5oP_Wy3xI/AAAAAAAACpw/ioMZfE0wuxE/s400/amzn.png
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Posted by Jamie at 10/23/2007 05:30:00 PM 25 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper
Gappers Tuesday October 23rd
Following yesterday's rebound, futures indicate a higher open for the mkt. The PC sector is leading the way following Apple's (AAPL) blowout quarter. The co not only beat handily on both the top and bottom lines, but issued Q1 (Dec) guidance that was above consensus ests. Typically, the co guides conservatively and below expectations. Lexmark (LXK) is also providing a boost to the group after destroying its Q3 EPS consensus est, beating by $0.47. Not all earnings were good, though. Texas Instruments (TXN), which beat Q3 expectations by $0.02, is indicated lower by 6% after the co issued a rev warning for Q4 that was tied to increased competition. In turn, Target (TGT) cut its Oct same-store sales view to a rise of 2-4% from the earlier est of 3-5%. Outside of earnings, there's very little news out this morning. Dow futures are currently +60; Nasdaq futures are currently +24.3; S&P futures are currently +8.3. Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: TXN at Caris & Co, APOL at Robert W. Baird, ZRAN at CIBC and Needham, SPWR at Lehman; Downgrades: TXN at UBS, Jefferies, JP Morgan, Lehman and Credit Suisse... On the Earnings calendar, 66 cos are confirmed to report after the close including AMZN and BRCM... Today's Economic calendar is empty.
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: LVLT -16.2%, TXN -7.4% (also downgraded at multiple firms), PCP -3.7%, COH -3.1%, TLAB -2.8%, BIIB -1.2%, AKS -1.1%, ... Other news: CSUN -5.8% (started with a Sell and $6 tgt at Lazard), ORA -4.2% (offering 3 mln shares of our common stock), BEAS -3.7% (ORCL announces "that BEA's board again rejected our proposed price of $17 per share in cash").
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: EDAC +13.2%, NFLX +12.8%, MICC +11.%, JDAS +10.9%, ZRAN +10.3% (also upgraded to Buy at Needham), PTEC +9.8%, AAPL +7.5%, JBLU +6.2%, LXK +2.9%... Other news: CNIC +33.2% (releases mobile update to include Apple iPhone optimization), GRRF +17.9% (obtains 100 mln Yuan R.F. order), MVIS +13.1% (enters development agreement with Asian consumer electronics manufacturer to create accessory pico projector for mobile phones and other devices), STV +5.7% (recent China IPO -- not seeing any news to account for today's move)
Courtesy of Briefing.com
Better late than not at all. Power failure.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/23/2007 10:21:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, October 22, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - NAZ leads in Modest Recovery Attempt
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx1hXfWy3uI/AAAAAAAACpY/WP82PJtc6fI/s400/comp2.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx1hXvWy3vI/AAAAAAAACpg/b4jNDhRyu7U/s400/comp15.pngThe NASDAQ provided leadership on today's modest recovery attempt. Still after the first thrust from the opening gap down, it felt uninspiring. Will AAPL's blowout earnings and increased guidance provide impetus to more bullish developments tomorrow?
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Posted by Jamie at 10/22/2007 10:44:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Hansen Natural Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:HANS)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx1PyfWy3rI/AAAAAAAACpA/4xb9L6bjUTk/s400/HANS.png HANS gapped down on the open and was quickly met by bargain hunters who managed to push price back up to Friday's morning swing low. HANS could not close above resistance and it carved out a NRB as price fell back under the 5 period EMA. This set up a dummy short. At first I was planning to take a partial when price retested the ORL, but when I saw the volume spike on the second WRB, I decided I would fold as this spike implied capitulation.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx1PyvWy3sI/AAAAAAAACpI/CP767OFyjnY/s400/abx.png ABX gapped down on the strength in the US dollar. It set up a dummy short after it failed to close above down sloping 5 period ema at the base of R2 (red line). Here again, I wanted to partial out at the retest of the ORL, but the lacklustre volume accompanying the move down, forced me to fold.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rx1PzPWy3tI/AAAAAAAACpQ/VpYQcX6LWsA/s400/mtw.png MTW was a forced trade based on a low risk entry. If you look at the daily chart, you will see that it was due for a bounce. I quickly scratched the trade when after breaching R2 (red line), it popped right back above it.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/22/2007 09:33:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Support_Resistance
Sunday, October 21, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Tipping Point or Anniversary Anxiety
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rxv3NvWy3nI/AAAAAAAACog/9-yGsMUSZ_c/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rxv3N_Wy3oI/AAAAAAAACoo/IS6EHEzJcOY/s400/ndx.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rxv3N_Wy3pI/AAAAAAAACow/fcj3o29jczI/s400/namo.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rxv3OPWy3qI/AAAAAAAACo4/MULRpbcs-zs/s400/dow.png
Was Friday's sell-off the tipping point leading to a larger correction, or was it just Black Monday anniversary anxiety? As has been well documented for weeks now, the 20th anniversary of the October'87 crash was a reminder that things can turn very ugly, very quickly. Was it coincidence or psychological, or is it real. According to those who remember, the Friday preceding the October' 87 Black Monday had many similarities to this past Friday.
What were the catalysts to Friday's drubbing - poor earnings from WB and poor guidance from industrials like SLB, and CAT. It was a given that the Financial sector would underperform and that Tech would outperform, but investors seem to be surprised that industrials are not optimisitc going into Q4.
Asian markets are tanking as I write this post. The USD continues to fall against overseas currencies. What's in store for tomorrow? We'll soon find out.
Friday's sharp sell-off has sent the "fear gauges" to their highest levels seen since the 9/18 rate cut. The steady weakness in equities has come as a mixed start to earnings season has cast doubt on the mkt's ability to push to new highs after the impressive bounce off the 8/16 lows. The Dow and S&P 500 are down ~4% on the week (~2.5% today), while the Nasdaq has lost around 2.8% this week (2.6% today). The NDX 100, however, bucks the trend by holding tight within its recent trading range. The VIX is currently +4.23 (+24%) on the week, while the more tech-focused VXN is up 4.51 (+21%) to 25.71 on the week... The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 1.09, indicating slightly more active put trading than call trading.
Of the hundreds of companies reporting earnings the week of Oct 22nd -26th some of the bigger names include: Monday: AUO, CRNT, CHKP, HAL, MRK, AAPL, EXP, NFLX, TXN, and WCN... Tuesday: AKS, EAT, BIIB, COH, JBLU, LVLT, LMT, SII, AMTD, AMAZN, BRCM, FLEX, HOKU, PNRA, RJET, RFMD, TRMB, and XL... Wednesday: APD, ABI, BA, CME, COP, LM, MER, NDAQ, NSC, NOC, RAI, BUD, AKAM, CDNS, FFIV, MNST, PHM, and TSCO... Thursday: EYE, BMY, CELG, CNCSA, DOW, ELNK, SSP, FLIR, IMCL, ICE, LLL, MATR, LCC, XMSR, AMGN, BIDU, CNET, DRIV, ESLR, IM, KLAC, MFE, WFR, MSFT, NTGR, OSIP, RACK, TRID, and WEN... Friday: BHI, BC, CFC, CVH, IR, LZ, TDW, THI, and WMI.
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: ASTIZ 40.4%, TEK 33.4%, GSB 32.3%, LCRY 27.2%, LULU 27.1%, SHOO 25.7%, PTT 24.5%, SQNM 24.5%, RIMG 23.7%, FTEK 23.2%, SKP 20.9%, TBSI 20.2%, PLCM 19.6%, FONR 18.7%, KAZ 18.7%, ASTI 17.7%, RBN 17.3%, CNTY 17.2%, LOGI 17.1%, NTCT 16.6%, BIIB 16.0%, JAG 15.9%, SKF 15.7%, DSX 15.5%, HYTM 15.3%, PKTR 14.9%, CYBS 14.3%, VGZ 13.8%, SRS 13.8%, QMAR 13.7%, ASPV 13.6%, ALTU 13.4%, HMIN 12.2%, PALM 11.7%, STP 11.3%, FCS 11.3%, ANET 11.3%, PRGN 11.2%, WINN 11.2%, ANH 11.1%, ANW 11.1%, SHLM 11.1%, ANV 10.8%, ASX 10.7%, SONS 10.6%, ASMLD 10.6%, HNSN 10.3%.
Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: TGIC -58%, RDN -42.1%, NFI -39.2%, HSWI -36.4%, PMI -31.9%, MTG -30.6%, KUN -29.4%, FFHL -29.2%, ERIC -28.9%, RCH -28.8%, PRM -28.5%, WBMD -24.4%, IMB -23.6%, CBAK -23.5%. NKTR -22.7%, STV -22.5%, MGI -22%, CBON -21.5%, WPL -21.2%, CTEL -20.9%, RX -20.6%, ETFC -20.5%, PBKS -20.2%, PIR -20.2%, RSF -20%, CCRT -20.1%, ELOS -20%, RAMR -19.8%, BKUNA -19.6%, CFC -19.5%, RMH -19.4%, CSUN -19.3%, MHJ -19.3%, AOS -19.1%, RHY -18.8%, CSIQ -18.8%, FCFS -18.7%, QXM -18.5%, BHS -18.3%, TRGL -18.1%, PJC -18.1%, DSL -18.1%, NANX -18%, RMA -17.9%, PFBC -17.8%, RRR -18%, TMA -17.8%, WM -17.7%, SAFM -17.7%, CDS -17.7%, QRCP -17.4%.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/21/2007 08:38:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Sunday, October 21, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - McDermott International (Public, NYSE:MDR)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxrYLfWy3kI/AAAAAAAACoI/66y7LC5xXnU/s400/mdr1.png Prior to Friday, MDR had carved out two inside bars as highlighted on the daily chart above. Notice the price and volume contraction on Thursday - NR7. Also note the rounded top which generally signals too much supply. Every time buyers try to push price higher, they are met by an over supply from sellers.
On the 15 minute chart below, we see that MDR gapped lower on the open and tested support on the OR. The second bar was inside on declining volume - an invitation to short. All of the MAs converged over price. MA convergence combined with a narrow trading range foreshadows a big move.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxrYLvWy3lI/AAAAAAAACoQ/WeKPIlIfIk8/s400/mdr.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxrYLvWy3mI/AAAAAAAACoY/ZxusftGZzPU/s400/cien.png CIEN breached support in the morning and came back for a retest. The retest formed a perfect bearish flag - another invitation to short. Notice how price cannot close above the down sloping 20 EMA on the retest.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/21/2007 12:37:00 AM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Bearish_Flag, Inside Bars, Opening Range, Support_Resistance
Thursday, October 18, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Range Bound
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxgipvWy3hI/AAAAAAAACnw/a-Zjc7H7nKI/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxgiqPWy3iI/AAAAAAAACn4/j7djWOdrlG0/s400/ndx.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxgiqPWy3jI/AAAAAAAACoA/eIzmTYxlQec/s400/namo.png
After hours GOOG had solid quarter, but AH traders were not impressed. Same goes for SNDK which is trading down 3% due to potential problems meeting demand going into Q4.
Tomorrow is OPEX and that means light trading for me. Asian markets are trading down and so are futures - $90.00 oil.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2007 11:12:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (Public, NYSE:ANH)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxfecvWy3gI/AAAAAAAACno/PUSxgnrEhEA/s400/anh.png
ANH was from my Esignal leaders list. I applied some Trader-X and OONR7 trading strategies on the entry. Trader-X always waited for price and the 5 ema to come together and he liked to buy following a candle that finished strong. OONR7 uses Fib retracements and allows for a maximum 62% retracement followed by bullish movement above 38% level. The exit is pure WSW - 3 WRBs.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2007 06:26:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Wednesday, October 17, 2007NASDAQTechnical Picture - Bull - Bear - Bull
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxbUGvWy3fI/AAAAAAAACng/g_2d79g50LY/s400/comp15.png
Lots of opportunities for both bulls and bears on these wide swings. The late day technical bounce bodes well for the bulls.
YHOO earnings helped the internet sector move up 3.4%. Semis also did well today on the heals of INTC earnings. EBAY reported a big beat AH, but stock closed neutral given the steep run-up prior.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/17/2007 11:32:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxZxC_Wy3eI/AAAAAAAACnY/aydbHSXwlvU/s400/adsk.pngThis ADSK gapper short trade is fairly straight forward. In fact, I wish I could fine one like this every day. ADSK was on the Briefing.com gapper list. The ORH lines up nicely with yesterday's pivot low. After trading sideways for over an hour, ADSK finally sprints to test the ORH, consolidates and makes another attempt which fails. The down sloping 20 ema is just above and the NR7 bar is a perfect opportunity for a dummy entry short. The initial target is R2 because it lines up nicely with the ORL. Everything about this trade is symmetrical except the final exit which felt like the end of the move.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/17/2007 04:28:00 PM 21 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Pivot Point
NASDAQ Technaical Picture - Testing Gap Support
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxWYCvWy3cI/AAAAAAAACnI/DuOkzc2Ddq4/s400/comp.pngWill INTC and YHOO earnings get buyers back in?
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: YHOO +8.9%, INTC +4.9%, CHB +2.4%, STX +1.5%... Trading Down: WBMD -12.4%, BONT -11.1%, EXFO -5.8%, IBM -1.4%, RLRN -1.0%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: NFI +2.9% (agrees to sell mortgage servicing rights in a move to reduce debt), BRLC +2.1% (denies intellectual property infringement claims by Funai), BMY +1.8% (confirms FDA approval of IXEMPRA, for the treatment of advanced breast cancer).
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Posted by Jamie at 10/17/2007 01:02:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Tuesday, October 16, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - EchoStar Communications (Public, NASDAQ:DISH)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxWg2fWy3dI/AAAAAAAACnQ/FJr1lGS-QPo/s400/dish.png
As per my pre-market post, chatter re: an AT&T takeover played right into the DISH B&B setup. DISH gapped up and carved out a shallow rounded base just below the daily pivot (blue line). It was a fast move, a scalp really. I was ready for that possibility and closed the position after it retraced more than 38% of the move from the swing low to the spike high.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxVLNvWy3aI/AAAAAAAACm4/GyqWIH7ADuU/s400/biib.png BIIB gapped down and traded in a NR just above yesterday's swing low for most of the morning. During lunch it started to make a move lower so I took a dummy short. I took a partial as price approached the morning swing slow and I was stopped out on the balance.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxVLN_Wy3bI/AAAAAAAACnA/vrRGZzUhWkA/s400/amln.png AMLN took a dive when the FDA issued an alert on its diabetes drug Byetta. After price stabilized mid-range, I was hoping for a low risk entry and more weakness into the close. Found a low risk entry, but the weakness held the lower end of the mid-range.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/16/2007 07:35:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper, Pivot Point
Monday, October 15, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxP6xPWy3TI/AAAAAAAACmA/Hd1KCdhxfm4/s400/adsk.pngADSK tried to bounce after some early weakness, but only managed to retrace 32% of the move from the ORH to the third bar low. It carved out two gravestone doji sticks (2nd inside) just as the down sloping 5 period EMA was making contact with price. Short below first doji low. The BO bar closed near its lows. This was followed by a retest of S1 before the selling really got underway. Partial at S2 and stopped out shortly thereafter on a midday bounce.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxP6xvWy3UI/AAAAAAAACmI/RX2wIwyLtyw/s400/cal.pngHigher oil always almost always hurts the airline sector. Initially CAL looked like it was forming a bearish flag, but it didn't really get a chance to develop. I shorted as price fell below the real body of the inside green hammer and covered as price retested Friday's low.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxP6x_Wy3VI/AAAAAAAACmQ/jy5X9PilnWI/s400/brcm1.pngI've just added two new names to the watch list - BRCM after it broke out of a multi-month base and COGN after a high volume earnings gap. Both charts are still bullish. BRCM formed a cup & handle pattern. However, it consolidated the BO for 30 minutes before ascending so the move didn't really get a chance to expand fully before the end of the session.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2007 06:57:00 PM 11 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci_retracement, Inside Bars
Sunday, October 14, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekend Update
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxJOO_Wy3LI/AAAAAAAAClE/EQVYq0_5R4w/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxJOPPWy3MI/AAAAAAAAClM/mL0vucCezLE/s400/comp15.pngThe NASDAQ snapped back quickly on Friday following Thursday's sell-off. The key catalysts were a benign PPI inflation reading for the month of September, as well as favorable retail sales, and the real kicker was tech M&A with Oracle's (ORCL) bid for BEAS. However, the early bounce was followed by a narrow range chop on much lighter volume to end the week. Advancers outpaced decliners (1841/1120) with new highs outpaced new lows (103/67).
BIIB was up 3.4% on the session and halted AH. A statement from the company was issued :
Co announced that its Board of Directors has authorized management to evaluate whether third parties would have an interest in acquiring the Co at a price and on terms that would represent a better value for its stockholders than having the Co continue to execute its strategy on a stand-alone basis. The Board emphasized that Biogen Idec's strategy is working and generating strong operating and financial performance. The Board noted that it is confident that the Co's business outlook, described in BIIB's press release on September 6, will result in attractive value for stockholders. Nevertheless, to determine whether potential strategic interest on the part of major pharmaceutical companies might result in superior value in the current environment, the Board has authorized management to explore interest in a transaction with BIIB. In addition, the Co disclosed it has received expressions of interest, including one from investor Carl Icahn. The Co does not intend to disclose further information regarding the status of its evaluation until the process has been completed.
BIIB charts Before and After the announcement:
Daily closes at $69.43
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxL1UfWy3NI/AAAAAAAAClU/wMan_jOn4d4/s400/BIIB.pngAH closes at $81.60
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxL1UvWy3OI/AAAAAAAAClc/_D_3GJnZDLE/s400/BIIB1.png
Saturday, October 13, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:JASO)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxEbufWy3JI/AAAAAAAACk0/LG2yy5glXro/s400/jaso.png JASO was a failed BO trade on Thursday when the market went into free fall mode. Yesterday, it set up a B&B long just below the failed BO line from the day before. I took the entry expecting some resistance just above, but it sailed right through, successfully retested, and bounced forward. I took a partial at $50.00 and expected to exit the balance at R2 (red line), but it was off by more than 20 cents before pulling back quickly so I missed the ideal exit.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RxEbuvWy3KI/AAAAAAAACk8/08c7y7ZM5ps/s400/nihd.png NIHD set up a B&B short yesterday afternoon. The BO bar was WR and closed near its lows. This is usually a very good sign, however, price pivoted on P (black line) shaking out the BO bar so I had to scratch the trade. My original target was a gap fill. I suppose I could have taken a partial at P but the fact that it had closed near the low plus the volume increase, led me to believe there was more downside to come and that the target could easily be reached.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/13/2007 02:14:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy
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Thursday, October 11, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Tech Drubbing = Huge Bearish Engulfing Stick
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rw62TvvmLgI/AAAAAAAACkU/n-ZB7yzVHE4/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rw6-6PvmLiI/AAAAAAAACkk/kCuVMeHB3qc/s400/comp15.png
According to Floor Talk, the catalysts for the selloff were negative commentary out today on BIDU by someone at JP Morgan and from an ECB governor suggesting the ECB may need to raise rates to a restrictive level to get the selling pressure rolling. Okay, so we needed a catalyst because the bears were unable to get the party started.
The intra-day chart above, as I pointed out last night and the night before, was signaling negative divergence of the RSI to continuous higher highs. So, regular readers were not taken by surprise. Bye bye BIDU, hello volatility!
While we could get short term gap support (area highlighted in green on 15 minute timeframe), the daily bearish engulfing pattern and aggressive nature of the decline argue that the corrective action is not complete. Volume was well above recent sessions (not mere profit taking) with internals firmly in the bearish camp. Decliners outpaced advancers 2071/878 but new highs outpaced new lows (245/84). The SOX and internet sectors paced the way down.
Economic Calendar: PPI in pre-market followed by Michigan Sentiment at 10:00.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/11/2007 07:44:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Celgene Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CELG)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rw6HQfvmLfI/AAAAAAAACkM/rhuPO0UTm2M/s400/celg.png When I heard all the gurus on CNBC this morning telling listeners to buy this market, I wanted throw up. When I saw the market gapping up yet again this morning, I was scratching my head.
Anyway, enough of that, I'll cover that in more detail in my NASDAQ post later this evening.
CELG, from the watch list, had a weak open, carving out a WRB (wide range bar) which closed near its lows. It consolidated the early weakness by printing three NRBs in the lower shadow range of the OR - basically three inside bars. I shorted 2 pennies below the first inside bar. As usual, I took a partial after three WR red bars and covered the balance as price approached the next round $ number. If you look at a wide range view of the 15 min. timeframe, you'll see that this area has support from yesterday afternoon's swing low and Friday's ORH.
At this support area, price rversed and CELG carved out a green hammer. I went long above the next inside bar. and took a partial when price stalled at $74.00 which was close to the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the ORH to the morning swing low. Volume seemed to be lacklustre on the move up so I kept a tight stop. When the market broke down in early afternoon I was stopped out and quickly scrambled to get short again. If price can't close above the 20 EMA on these retracement trades and falls back below rising 5 ema, it usually means that the selling will continue for another leg down.
Notice the big volume on the two selling waves and declining volume on the retracement. That is a key part of managing the trade.
Getting into a trade once it has already broken out, is more difficult than stalking it ahead of time as I did with CELG. However, this afternoon's selloff required some fast decisions in order to profit from the explosive move. Hope you guys made a lot of money!
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Posted by Jamie at 10/11/2007 04:21:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Pivot Point, Support_Resistance, Volume
Wednesday, October 10, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Keep Taking it Higher
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rw2Oe_vmLeI/AAAAAAAACkE/1y7c_EqsR8M/s400/comp15.pngA long list of stocks came out of nowhere to post huge gains today. Just looking at the NASDAQ leaders list - check out the charts for FREE, ARTW, GROW, FEED, GSOL, SDTH. With the exception of SEED, my gapper list could not compete with these non-gapper momentum plays.
Economic Calendar : import/export, initial claims, and trade balance in pre-market.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/10/2007 10:39:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Origin Agritech Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:SEED) Cup & Handle
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rw0yQvvmLdI/AAAAAAAACj8/FC3xW4Vr_Zs/s400/seed.png
From the Briefing.com gapper list, SEED formed a Cup & Handle pattern in early afternoon. It was breaking out just as I got back to the chart. Since the BO bar was WR, I decided to wait for a retest, as these WRBs at the BO point usually consolidate the break before extending. I exited as price approached the 100% Fibonacci extension of the ORL to the base of the C&H pattern. 100% is a normal extension for the C&H pattern, plus I had my three WRBs.
The best entry would have been a break of the 2 NR inside bars on low volume (NR7) just prior to move back up to the base. However, sometimes it is difficult to identify the C&H pattern before the handle completes itself.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/10/2007 04:11:00 PM 12 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Tuesday, October 09, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Negative Divergence
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwxAhfvmLcI/AAAAAAAACj0/HK9_yLLx5s0/s400/comp15.png As depicted on the 15 minute time frame, we have negative divergence of the RSI to higher highs. The NASDAQ is extended (overbought) despite weak volume and it could be argued that a pause or retracement would be welcome at these levels. I certainly don't feel like chasing until we get a technical retracement.
Companies reporting in pre-market Wednesday include SGR, MON, and COST.
Economic -Wholesale inventories at 10:00 and crude at 10:30
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: MPET +5.5%; VSGN +1.8%; AA +0.2%... Trading Up: ANPI +10.9% (announces intent to file 510(
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BHP)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwvlBvvmLZI/AAAAAAAACjg/DwR9fH1oFHk/s400/bhp.png BHP was a gapper that I found through my simple scan - stocks priced between $10-200, gaps open above previous day high with at least 300,000 shares traded by the time I run the scan -usually 10:00. First thing that caught my eye was the inside bars. However, volume was lower but not declining which is important for the expansion effect. I looked at the wide range view and saw that we had resistance at $79.40 so I decided to place a buy stop order 2 pennies above resistance. I made this decision on bar 4, so I already knew that BHP was testing the ORH. If it failed to hold the ORH, it would never reach my buy stop order.
This strategy worked out nicely as it kept me on the sidelines until BHP was ready to move higher. I took a partial at Friday's high and closed the balance after price started to retreat from the $81.00 level.
I was hoping price would retrace 38% of the move from the ORL to the morning swing high and set up another wave, but it only retraced about 25% and it was too confusing with all of the offsets, and the FOMC minutes coming into play, so I passed.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwvlB_vmLaI/AAAAAAAACjo/YaQpIcOUd_g/s400/ldk.png LDK was from the Briefing list. I saw the bullish doji morning star reversal pattern and I knew that LDK was finally ready to start to recover some of the losses from its recent sell off. I waited for the breakout of the base. I took a partial at the base of the green hammer and was stopped out on the balance when price fell below the hammer low. I had to re-enter on the next base and watch it carefully when the FOMC minutes came out.
Even though I made a lot more moneyy with LDK, BHP is a more traditional gapper play so that's why, it's the "Trade of the Day".
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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2007 04:27:00 PM 21 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Morning_Star
Monday, October 08, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - NII Holdings, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NIHD)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwqTy_vmLVI/AAAAAAAACjA/lgmaa_0L29E/s400/nihd.png NIHD started the session off very weak and after basing at S2 it set up a dummy short. Took a partial at $67 on the third WRB and I was stopped out on the balance on the next stick.
Initially had planned a long on NIHD because the volume pattern looked bullish. The 7th bar hammer was another indication for a long entry. However, just as I was scoping out a good B&B setup on the lower timeframe, it decided to go south instead.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwqTzPvmLWI/AAAAAAAACjI/AXPHeQ6Ye8M/s400/nihd1.png I felt there was a lot of volume on the bounce from $67.00 and decided to take it long when price crossed the intra-day PP. I was going to take a partial at S2 but the stock was just starting to feel really strong and orderly so I hung on until price approached the morning swing high.
It feels that after all this selling NIHD is finally ready to bounce from this level. As you can see from the daily time frame below, the base of the August hammer low held as support today. If price can take out the next swing low marked by blue line, I think NIHD has a good chance of rallying back to $75 resistance.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwqT0PvmLXI/AAAAAAAACjQ/GFzsgRYHtOw/s400/nihd2.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwqT0vvmLYI/AAAAAAAACjY/9Z8J_FXlfbQ/s400/SIGM.png SIGM was a C&H B&B pattern. It did not consolidate much as the handle came back up to the base, however, it did consolidate for an hour or so after breaking out. I actually prefer when price consolidates at the base prior to breaking like ADSK on Friday. That way you can expect a much faster move up. The consolidation was orderly so I stuck with it.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/08/2007 04:29:00 PM 11 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Pivot Point
Sunday, October 07, 2007Cup & Handle - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwkfnfvmLSI/AAAAAAAACio/GTpU4HDn3Ck/s400/adsk.png ADSK was a fairly obvious C&H pattern with a low risk dummy entry. It did not extend the full 100%, however, it did rally quickly out of the base and was orderly and easy to manage.
I've posted both the 5 and 15 min. views.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwkfnfvmLTI/AAAAAAAACiw/oZlXXyEYmEA/s400/adsk1.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwkfnvvmLUI/AAAAAAAACi4/4HmC-4idNCY/s400/HANS.png HANS was a choppier base which I entered long. After a slow start and a quick snap back, I thought it was going to fail so I scratched the trade. The end result was just a retest of the base leading into a momo move in my direction. Robbed myself of at least 3R.
If we compare the two charts, we see that an orderly setup like ADSK is easier to manage than a choppier base like HANS. I like these C&H patterns to take off right away.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/07/2007 02:02:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Inside Bars
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rwkcq_vmLRI/AAAAAAAACig/FkJbzQrq_-U/s400/rimm.png RIMM was the big gapper trade on Friday. Unfortunately for me, it was also my birthday and that means a lot of phone calls from family and friends. The distractions caused me to miss the early break of the fourth bar - inside inverted hammer which turned out to be the trigger bar for the biggest move of the day. After taking out the ORH, RIMM retraced on declining volume and eventually set up the next B&B BO off of two NR7 type bars which ultimately only extended to the 25% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH. I closed my position when it stalled there.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/07/2007 01:49:00 PM 7 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Gapper, Inside Bars
Saturday, October 06, 2007An American Hedge Fund by Timothy Sykes
From the MOJO television series "Wall Street Warriors", Timothy Sykes, Hedge Fund Entrepreneur and Stock Trader has documented his trading experiences in a quick paced, amusing and satisfying book. If you want to know what it takes to be driven to succeed as a start-up day/swing trader, then this is the book you should read. I thoroughly enjoyed it!
"An American Hedge Fund is a modern day, page turner about a young, street savvy stock trader.
The story of how Timothy Sykes turned his Bar Mitzvah money into a remarkable fortune will, no doubt, motivate many aspiring traders.
Highly recommended!" - Jamie July 25, 2007
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Posted by Jamie at 10/06/2007 09:56:00 AM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Entertainment
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Friday, October 05, 2007CDN $ Exceeds U.S. $
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwaXb5ko8bI/AAAAAAAACiY/Z6_L65h_cu8/s400/cdw.png
With the US $ in the gutter, it no longer makes any sense for me and other Canadians to trade $U.S. markets. This has been a thorn in my side for quite some time now, but today really hurts.
Have a good weekend. Long weekend for us - Canadian Thanksgiving
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Posted by Jamie at 10/05/2007 03:57:00 PM 13 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, October 04, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Sigma Designs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SIGM)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwV-qJko8aI/AAAAAAAACiQ/zD5-6KKMEuM/s400/sigm1.png From the watch list, SIGM broke $49.50 on the open. This was the area where price was basing most of the day yesterday. After a false start, price retraced back to the base on low volume and set up a bullish shallow rounded B&B pattern. Price easily took out R1 and R2 and continued higher until midday. I closed my position on confirmation of a hanging man. Price retraced back to the upward sloping 20 ema and setup a late day scalp as price took out the high of a hammer-like reversal bar.
Slow, choppy day for the markets with very few good trading opps.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/04/2007 07:59:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Inside Bars, NRB
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Choppy Consolidatiion Ahead of Jobs Data
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwV6Hpko8YI/AAAAAAAACiA/-puIcSi5qx0/s400/comp.png
Except for the NASDAQ, both the S&P and NYSE formed narrow range inside days.
After breaching yesterday’s low in the early going, the NASDAQ was able to recover, closing up 4 pts. or 0.15% on the session.
Today’s trade was an extension of the sideways consolidation that took hold following Monday’s bullish move higher, and in front of the key jobs data scheduled for 8:30 EST pre-open tomorrow. Strength today was noted in Gold/Silver +1.9%, Utility +0.9%, Oil Service +0.9%, Natural Gas +0.9% and Rail +0.9%. Weak sectors included: Home Construction -2.2%, Steel -1.6%, Coal -1.2%, Trucking -1.1%, and Retail -0.9%.
Today's trading was on lower than avg volume (NYSE 1100, vs. 1658 avg, Nasdaq 1726, vs. 2145 avg), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1976/1234, Nasdaq 1655/1294) with new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 76/64; Nasdaq 141/66).
Economic Calendar for tomorrow:
Date
Time EST
Econ. Data
Period
Consensus
Prior Period
Oct 05
08:30
Non-farm payroll
Sep
100K
-4K
Oct 05
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Sep
4.7%
4.6%
Oct 05
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Sep
0.3%
0.3%
Oct 05
08:30
Avg. Work Week
Sep
33.8
33.8
Oct 05
15:00
Consumer credit
Aug
$9.5B
$7.5B
As reported this morning in pre-market, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended September 19th rose to 317k, up from the previous reading of 301k and slightly higher than consensus (310).
Earnings
Companies reporting earnings in after hours include RIMM.
RIMM reported EPS of
$0.50 vs $0.49 Reuters consensus; revs $1.37 bln were basically in line with $1.36 bln Reuters consensus.
The initial reaction was a swoon down to the $93.00 level, however the stock has recovered and closed the AH session at $98.55.
In the conference call, company said, "RIMM's Q2 results were exceptionally strong on all metrics including revenue, subscriber account additions and net income.
International markets now represent about 32% of subs with non-enterprise subs now over 30%. Slower summer seasonality did not strongly affect results.
Pearl drives a larger percentage of new subs vs. upgrades than many of their other products. Blackberry Unite is designed to allow small groups such as a family or SOHO to stay connected with each other and easily coordinate personal and business activities. Blackberry Unite software will be offered as a free download that provides groups of up to five users with mobile access to share calendars, pictures, music, documents and desktop content through BlackBerry smart phones... Blackberry Unite software should be available for free download later this fall
Receiving early indications that enterprises are considering replacing cellular phones with voice enabled BlackBerry smart phones. Q2 ASPs were $353 due to the mix of handsets shipped in the quarter and they expect ASPs in Q3 to be ~$340. Canadian dollar strength is raising their payroll expense but say overall impact is relatively minimal and they are hedging their exposure. Inventories were up to $301 mln vs $259 mln in Q1. They view the average useful life of a blackberry at about 1.5-2 yrs. Overall saying they have more cash flow then they can comfortably use and that they are getting to the point where they need to begin to discuss ways to return cash to shareholders via buybacks or dividends.
Other Technicals:
NVLS spiked $0.70 in late day trade to close at $28.02.
Base & Break above $28.25 on the daily timeframe.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwV6H5ko8ZI/AAAAAAAACiI/Uko77lT7d4c/s400/nvls.png
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Down: ZZ -6.8%; LWSN -5.9%; RIMM -2.3%... Trading Up: CPRT +2.3% (increases stock repurchase program for an additional 20 mln shares); SRX +2.3% (announces Department of Justice awards $59 mln task order); HBHC +1.9% (will replace Guitar Center in the S&P SmallCap 600); PLL +1.7% (reports prelim sales above consensus); DLTR +1.2% (authorizes additional $500 mln share repurchase program); COHR +1.0% (receives expected letter from NASDAQ); MYL +0.9% (settles its first-to-file opportunity on Levetiracetam with UCB)... Trading Down: SPRT -17.7% (adjusts Q3 guidance, lowers FY07 guidance); TLAB -6.8% (sees Q3 EPS and revs below consensus); SNUS -3.1% (discloses in an 8-K that on Oct 3, Bayer notified co that it has terminated its agreement because the phase 3 pivotal trial of the Product did not meet its primary endpoint); MED -1.7% (lowers FY07 guidance, says new advertising campaign launched in Sept proving successful); AZPN -1.2% (receives staff determination from Nasdaq); HMY -0.9% (Last of 3,200 miners rescued from South African gold mine -- DJ); SCUR -0.9% (re-affirms guidance and announces other corporate matters); AA -1.0% (announces it is near a definitive agreement to sell its Automotive Castings business and should close that transaction by the end of the yr).
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Posted by Jamie at 10/04/2007 07:30:00 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Wednesday, October 03, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking on Higher Volume
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwQfc5ko8WI/AAAAAAAAChw/1BqhTeHpMbk/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwQfdJko8XI/AAAAAAAACh4/mTAwMGoXpGE/s400/ndx.pngThe Nasdaq was down 0.64% to close at 2729 on slightly higher volume. At this point we can only say that we are retesting the base from Monday's breakout move. However, the NDX 100 shows a slightly more negative picture due to the completion of a bearish evening star reversal pattern. Today's tech weakness was led by the SOX which was down 2.1%. Most major tech sectors ended the session in the red except internet which was unchanged and biotech up 0.14%.
Today's movement came from lower than avg volume (1884, vs. 2161 avg), with decliners outpacing advancers (1144/1815) . However, new highs outpaced new lows (147/62).
Several companies have lowered guidance ahead of earnings, most notably NTRI which is off by $11.00+ or 22.6% in AH trade.
Economic Calendar: Initial claims in pre-market (consensus 310) and Factory orders at 10:00 (consensus 2.8%)
In reviewing my watch list, I noticed several failed BO attempts, as well as, a few bearish engulfing bars and bearish evening star patterns. Profit taking at these levels is healthy given the level of the extension since the FOMC decreased interest rates. Failed patterns are prime opportunities for shorting because failures often result in fast moves in the opposite direction.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: TISI +6.7%; BLUD +2.7%... Trading Down: SMOD -4.6%...
Trading Up: ITWO +6.2% (lowers Q3 EPS guidance to $0.37-0.40 vs $0.49 Reuters consensus); GNK +3.0% (announces sale of Panamax Vessel; expects to realize a net gain of ~$26 mln in 1Q08); ROCK +1.6% (to sell the assets and cease the operations of its Hubbell Steel subsidiary); VNUS +1.3% (lowers Q3 EPS guidance to $0.37-0.40 vs $0.49 Reuters consensus); NPSP +1.2% (announces an increase in tender offer price for its 3.0% convertible notes due 2008 and extends expiration date until October 17, 2007)...
Trading Down: NTRI -22.6% (lowers Q3 guidance); RNIN -20.9% (lowers Y07 rev guidance); WTSLA -15.0% (lowers Q3 guidance); ISLN -14.4% (lowers Q3 EPS and rev guidance); LWAY -8.9% (reports Q3 revs); BMS -8.7% (lowers Q3 EPS guidance to $0.37-0.40 vs $0.49 Reuters consensus); TOA -7.4% (withdraws 2007 and 2008 guidance due to worsening market conditions); TRMS -2.6% (Trimeris and Roche withdraw application to market Biojector 2000 device for use with FUZEON); MOH -1.1% (announces $150 mln offering of convertible senior notes).
RIMM reports earnings after hours tomorrow. Consensus is looking for EPS of $0.49 on revenues of $1,370
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2007 07:00:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwP9FZko8UI/AAAAAAAAChg/chwiFIjPIr8/s400/pot.png I missed the morning session so I stuck with low risk NR7 (POT) and inside bars (DRYS) to trigger a couple of short entries. My DRYS entry was a little late (under $97.00). POT was a little tricky on the exit as it took out R2 easily but then started to consolidate so I took a partial and moved my stop above the previous bar high. The DRYS exit was easier because price bounced after taking out R2, plus I had 3 WRBs.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwP9Fpko8VI/AAAAAAAACho/HjY-xBBnjAk/s400/drys.png
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2007 04:24:00 PM 11 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NR7, NRB
Monday, October 01, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwGHE5ko8QI/AAAAAAAAChA/jw1bAsK_GWs/s400/vmw.png VMW -Mentioned by Alex in the comments this weekend - 3 inside bars on declining volume. Partial booked as price approached R2 and closed balance after price couldn't hold $89.00.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwGHFJko8RI/AAAAAAAAChI/1-LJyzdcsK8/s400/qlgc.png QLGC - C&H on the daily. B&B after inside bar. Thought this one could go higher based on the daily pattern, but it reversed on high volume at the cusp of $14.00.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwGHFZko8SI/AAAAAAAAChQ/7CFseASBp0I/s400/frpt.png FRPT - Mentioned by Jim in the comments this weekend and also in the HighChartPatterns (HCPG) newsletter. Great start on a break of the inside bar. I don't have much luck with FRPT no matter how perfect the chart looks, every time I get involved, it doesn't follow through.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RwGHXpko8TI/AAAAAAAAChY/JSFQk1I0734/s400/mtw.png MTW was a HCPG pick. I missed the perfect entry but did manage to get in on the second wave. Beautiful setup on the daily after Friday's inside bar. Way to go guys!
The first day of the month is often a busy day for institutional buyers. Today was no exception and I noticed that they were heavy buyers of semis, most of which I had deleted from my watch list. So now I'm adding back LRCX and KLAC. I'm also looking at a few other semis such OVTI, and LLTC. They were also heavy buyers of biotechs so I'm adding back GILD. Expect some stock upgrades in these sectors soon as well.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/01/2007 07:44:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, Inside Bars, Pivot Point
Institutional Buying - 1st day of the Month
A big day for markets.
VMW - 3 inside on declining volume was nice.
I'll try to post some charts later tonight.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/01/2007 03:54:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, September 30, 2007Core Watch List Revised - October 2007
AAPL, ABX, ADSK, AKAM, AKS, ALXN, AMGN, AMZN, BCSI, BIDU, BIIB, BSC, CAL, CELG, CMI, CNQ, CROX, CSCO, DISH, DRYS, ESRX, FMCN, FRPT, FSLR, FWLT, GILD, GRMN, HANS, IBM, JASO, JOYG, KLAC, LRCX, MA, MDR, MNST, NIHD, NVDA, ORCL, OVTI, POT, QLGC, RIMM, RIO, SIGM, TNH, VMW, WFMI
My watch list was getting too long and unmanageable so I've cut back a bit. This is how I'm starting the month but I'm sure there will be changes as earnings come into play. RIMM is reporting on Thursday.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/30/2007 07:08:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
Saturday, September 29, 2007Mailbag
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rv6KQZko8NI/AAAAAAAACgo/Nu6rve0bnTM/s400/SSTR.png A reader asks the best way to trade SSTR.
SSTR was a flat base breakout gapper on the daily chart. The first bar is bullish on very high volume. Price then consolidates the wide gap open. An early attempt to break the ORH fails and price eases back into the rising 5 period ema on declining volume. The fifth bar is a bullish green hammer reversal bar (NR7) in close proximity to 5 ema. This is the trigger bar for price expansion. There are several ways to enter: 1. break of hammer high; 2. Break of round $ number; or 3. Break of ORH. If you wait for the break of the ORH, you have to give price room to retest the base of the ORH.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rv6KQpko8OI/AAAAAAAACgw/IsAKdhtt3Co/s400/jrjc.png A reader asks what went wrong with this JRJC trade using the 5 min. timeframe.
Click on the chart to read my notes. Here again I would emphasize the need to allow for a retest of the base set by the ORH immediately following the breakout.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rv6KQ5ko8PI/AAAAAAAACg4/BJvulOcVXsk/s400/anw.png A reader asks if ANW meets the criteria for a 38% retracement.
Due to lack of specifics, I'm assuming the reader wants to know if this qualifies after the first swing high. I normally use the 38% retracement after a stock has rallied out of a base. In this case ANW rallies off of the OR and swings back down. Volume is choppy, however after retracing 50%, it slowly moves above the 38% retracement level and carves out two NR7 bars which could be used as a low risk entry point.
He also mentions JSDA. All I can say about JDSA is that it gapped after two previous MOMO days, and the third day usually loses momentum, so I don't recommend trading a stock that gaps after such big gains. I know that the Chinese plays are defying gravity at the moment but trading rules are not based on exceptions, they are based on everyday trading reality. So in this case, I would pass as per my trading rules.
How do I develop my watch list?
I did a post on that which you can find in the Intro to WSW Blog. I've also recently started scanning for inside bars on declining volume on the daily charts. I'm looking for inside bars on an established trend which implies a pause before the next leg or wave.
Reader participation - Check the comments section of the Focus and Watch List posts as many readers contribute some awesome setups.
If you are a new trader and you need a watch list, you can use the Focus Lists on this blog. However, I don't update every night due to blogging time constraints. A fresh nightly watch list is available at highchartpatterns.com. I've used the service and highly recommend it for B&B.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/29/2007 12:42:00 PM 19 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, Mailbag, NR7, Retest, Watchlist
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - BIDZ.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BIDZ)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rv5rcJko8JI/AAAAAAAACgI/9gVc7mrlFBs/s400/bidz.png Some of the criteria I use for selecting gapper setups are:
1. Open above or below previous day's high or low. The rationale here is taking out recent support/resistance. Stocks that gap within the previous day's range have S/R to breach before expanding. So I ignore these because I have my watch list of familiar stocks for that. On any given day, at least a handful of the WL stocks gap, so I don't need more of these to clutter my focus list.
2. Volume
When I first started trading gaps, if volume was not high in the early going I would lose interest and move on to something else. Later on when I became aware of the power of NR7, I realized that there was money to be made from gappers that were slow to get going, especially if the previous day's session was NR and inside and the stock was trending. The NRIB (narrow range inside bar) in an existing trend implies a pause ahead of the next leg or wave. A gap following a NRIB will often setup a shallow rounded base as a spring board to a momo vertical move. Case in point was DISH on Thursday, following Wednesday's IB on the daily. Yesterday BIDZ from the Briefing list, gapped up from an IB on the daily and formed a shallow rounded base on low volume. It setup a perfect dummy entry after closing above R2. After taking out the daily pivot high, it retested in an orderly fashion and continued on the next leg up.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rv5rcZko8KI/AAAAAAAACgQ/BU2__BaRJP8/s400/bidz1.png PTRY was a name I picked up off of the Trade_Ideas pre-market scanner. In the 2-3 minutes leading up to the open, PTRY showed up several times as a high quality short (quality as measured by # of days).
It had gapped down the previous day and tried to recover but could not close above the declining 20 EMA. Late in the previous session, it started ticking down and this setup is a continuation play.
I traded this one Trader-X style using a combination of the 15 and 5 minute for confirmation. A weak open followed by a red inverted hammer inside bar. The 5 ema was still trailing price, so I needed the 5 to confirm the setup. I used the Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL to set my target. Initially, I was going to partial at the 38% extension, but when we got there, I thought it was going lower. After coming a penny shy of the half $ number, buyers started stepping in so I covered.
The only caveat in this setup was proximity to R2 which lined up with the ORL, so I watched closely to make sure that price took out R2 otherwise, it could setup a reversal.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rv5rcpko8LI/AAAAAAAACgY/tmxyKCRIpWQ/s400/ptry.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rv5rc5ko8MI/AAAAAAAACgg/ccPjtWyS_Tk/s400/ptry1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/29/2007 11:09:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7, NRIB, Trader-X
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Thursday, September 27, 2007Focus List for Friday September 28th
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rvxgd5ko8II/AAAAAAAACgA/015FCao25Z8/s400/pot.png
POT - 3 inside bars on declining volume
AAPL - 2 day NR consolidation similar to WYNN yesterday - Good call Alex.
SIGM - pullback into gap support
IBM, JOYG, STR, AKS, ESRX, NIHD, NTAP, QLGC - B&B long
RVBD - Breaking down; AKAM broke down nicely today - any intraday rally with topping formation could be another shorting opp. FMCN - bearish engulfing and down AH.
Thanks to all who contributed comments and stock picks following last night's post.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/27/2007 09:43:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Focus_List
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - EchoStar Communications (Public, NASDAQ:DISH)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvwS65ko8GI/AAAAAAAACfw/rZBd5xhBSlo/s400/dish.png DISH gapped up and retraced back to R1, where it formed a shallow rounded base on low volume. The perfect entry is a break of the 6th bar high. However, I was away due to personal business and missed it. I was back at my trading desk at 11:00 and was able to catch the second wave after DISH carved out 2 inside bars on declining volume.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvwS7Jko8HI/AAAAAAAACf4/jxo0jGg7nKQ/s400/FSLR.png FSLR didn't really gap open much, but it was on the focus list and delivered a momo move after recovering from early weakness. It paused between R1 and R2 and carved out 3 inside bars on declining volume. This created a coiled spring effect and the move off of the 3rd inside - NR7 bar was quick and reached the target in a matter of minutes.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/27/2007 04:28:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Dummy, Gapper, NR7
Wednesday, September 26, 2007Focus List for Thursday Sept. 27th
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvsFCZko8BI/AAAAAAAACfI/ZMsJ9NWdsqY/s400/amln.pngAMLN B&B on daily.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvsFCpko8CI/AAAAAAAACfQ/IJK3mTeosOQ/s400/ffiv.pngFFIV looks like C&H pattern forming on 15 min.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvsFC5ko8DI/AAAAAAAACfY/AaRuLLFuiMQ/s400/Fslr.pngFSLR - 3 day consolidation could BO anytime.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvsFDJko8EI/AAAAAAAACfg/55xtOfJQOxU/s400/mnst.pngMNST daily could break down anytime.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvsFDZko8FI/AAAAAAAACfo/F2NnR7x_YhI/s400/NDAQ.pngNDAQ 15 min. C&H pattern could extend tomorrow.
BTW, WFMI daily PP breakout today at $46.00. I missed it because it wasn't on my watch list. :( Check it out, it was a beaut.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2007 09:17:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Focus_List
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Bullish Gap and Doji Star
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rvr-NJko8AI/AAAAAAAACfA/f7_NvP7wdmE/s400/comp.pngYesterday we closed above the lower red line which represents the base just prior to the July meltdown. Now, we are in a position to retest the July highs and form a double top. The NASDAQ is still not overbought. Cautious trading is in order because all of these dojis and stars means many choppy sessions.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: BBBY +2.5%... Trading Down: XRTX -5.6%; PAYX -2.7%... Trading Up: SIGA +12.2% (ST-246 completely prevents mortality in Symptomatic Orthopox Virus infected primates); GSIG +8.4% (raises Q3 guidance); SLM +5.5% (Flowers Group open to renegotiating Sallie Mae deal, according to source -- DJ); SWSI +5.0% (Superior Well Services will replace Neoware in the S&P SmallCap 600); GYI +3.4% (Getty Images will replace Greater Bay Bancorp in the S&P MidCap 400); DRE +2.7% (S&P REIT Composite constituent Duke Realty will replace AG Edwards in the S&P MidCap 400); CPO +2.6% (Corn Products International will replace Catalina Marketing in the S&P MidCap 400); GLS +1.9% (signs agreement to acquire eight narrow-body aircraft); AVAV +1.9% (reaffirms FY08 revs guidance, below consensus; Co also awarded contract valued at ~$57 mln); WOR +1.7% (Announces 10 mln share repurchase authorization); ISTA +1.3% (expands its pipeline in allergy treatments; acquires exclusive N. American rights to bepotastine for nasal allergy); TEC +1.1% (announces sale of a portion of its Piceance Basin Asset for $33 mln in cash plus DJ Basin production and acreage); SAM +1.0% (Beer will replace Playtex Products in the S&P SmallCap 600).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2007 08:48:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Cup & Handle - Celgene Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CELG)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rvq9Ppko7_I/AAAAAAAACe4/lWbkqJPfFbA/s400/celg.png Only one trade for me today as the market has become extremely choppy. CELG was a C&H BO at the base of R1. It took a while to get going, but eventually got the job done, extending 100% from the low of the cup to the base. The two big volume spikes foreshadow the end of the move so there's no point in trying to get more out of this trade.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2007 04:12:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci
Tuesday, September 25, 2007Apple iPod nano - Feist - 1 2 3 4
Apple's new iPod nano commerial features Canadian artist Feist
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2007 11:49:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Keying Off of Daily Charts - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK) & ArthroCare Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ARTC)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvlriZko77I/AAAAAAAACeY/hJyMLlvGMGA/s400/adsk.pngBoth of these setups are from the watch list. ADSK - Break of ORH which was above yesterday's hammer high.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rvlri5ko78I/AAAAAAAACeg/DycagznaINg/s400/adsk1.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rvlri5ko79I/AAAAAAAACeo/--ZO-GpDb3U/s400/artc.png ARTC - Break of yesterday's high. Stop set just below my entry bar.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvlrjJko7-I/AAAAAAAACew/BjiysuFG4vc/s400/artc2.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2007 04:08:00 PM 17 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
Monday, September 24, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Doji Star - Short-term Top
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvhyP5ko75I/AAAAAAAACeI/mIgrv5AZCv0/s400/ndx.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvhyQpko76I/AAAAAAAACeQ/QAjMQoF65Uc/s400/comp.png
Doji Star confirms my feelings regarding a short-term top. If networking and semis are selling off, it won't be long before the rest follow. Biotech still my favorite on the long side.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: FIF +7.0%... Trading Down: LTRE -5.1%; SNX -2.8%... Trading Up: SCON +20.5% (signs term sheet for joint venture with Hunchun BaoLi Communication); DDSS +11.8% (provides update on U.S. regulatory process for once-daily Tr amadol; Co believes that it has demonstrated the efficacy and safety); KEX +10.2% (sees Q3 EPS above consensus); AKNS +9.7% (partners with Suntech to manufacture new solar panel)... Trading Down: LOW -5.9% (guides FY07 EPS to low end or slightly below prior guidance); PANC -4.8% (announces resignation of Peyton Marshall as Executive Vice President and CFO); TGT -4.4% (lowers September Comp Guidance); HD -2.0% (in after-hours following cautious LOW comments/guidance); BKRS -1.4% (lowers September comp guidance); CNQR -1.2% (4.7 mln share secondary offering priced at $28.50 share - DJ ).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/24/2007 10:25:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Retracement Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rvgpjpko73I/AAAAAAAACd4/-VF7g2961AQ/s400/grmn15.png I was away for most of the day, arriving back to my trading desk just before 2:00 p.m. EST. I noticed that a few of the watch list stocks had a bullish run in the morning and were now retracing. GRMN set up a bullish reversal pattern after retracing 38% of the last leg up from Friday's low to the midday swing high. It carved out out a bullish tweezer bottom, the second bar of which was a green hammer on the 15 minute time frame. This pattern closed at the base of the intraday pivot point.
I waited until price moved above the intraday PP and took a dummy long entry. My prelim. target was a retest of the swing high. Since GRMN had taken out the daily PP and was trading at all time highs on the day, this setup had a very good chance of being successful.
N.B. - Normally for stocks that gap up, I calculate the Fib. retracement from the ORL to the swing high. Since GRMN did not gap up, I used the previous day low to calculate my Fib. retracement level.
The 5 minute chart below shows the precise entry.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rvgpj5ko74I/AAAAAAAACeA/dQLpDmcUC6A/s400/grmn5.png
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Posted by Jamie at 9/24/2007 05:16:00 PM 13 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Pivot Point, Tweezer_Bottom
Sunday, September 23, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Topping Stars as Markets Consolidate Post Fed
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvcEjpko71I/AAAAAAAACdo/Kh6jcA6aQts/s400/ndx.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvcEjpko72I/AAAAAAAACdw/zVVWT6dO9yk/s400/comp.png
I'm watching for signs of a potential double top as price approaches July highs. The NDX has formed a bearish rising wedge pattern. Furthermore, the ADX line (momentum indicator) has been declining throughout most of the bounce from the August lows. It is just now starting to rise, post FED. A sleepy ADX on such a recovery could be a sign that momentum has been lost.
Looking at the NASDAQ comp, I would like to see it hold Thursday's lows as support, otherwise it opens the door for corrective action and the loss of the Fed day gains.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/23/2007 08:26:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Friday, September 21, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - McDermott International (Public NYSE:MDR)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvQkv5ko7zI/AAAAAAAACdY/klp6yAGHv0U/s400/mdr.png
From the watch list - MDR trading in blue sky again. My Esignal charts died around midday and for most of the afternoon only showed data from 12:00 noon. I guess the quarterly options expiration was too much for them to handle.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvVE05ko70I/AAAAAAAACdg/fKgig4ORvdo/s400/mdr.png As per the comments below, here is the 5 minute timeframe of the MDR trade which adds much more precision. We can clearly see the C&H formation at the base of the daily pivot high (green line). After breaking out, MDR has a momo vertical move, much higher than the expectation for a C&H pattern. The norm is 100%, but MDR is trading in the daily spot - blue sky zone, so we let it run.
I don't short strong stocks like this one because I'm not good at picking tops and stocks making new highs usually retrace, setting up the next wave. So from experience, I look for a normal retracement which I define as 38%, on declining volume. From there I look for a bullish candlestick reversal or a some higher lows, to firm up my theory of the next leg up.
In the case of MDR we got a bullish hammer at the cusp of the 38% fib. retracement level. This coincided with a consolidation zone from the morning rally, so I entered on the next candle as price took out the hammer high.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/21/2007 04:06:00 PM 13 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Cup-and-Handle, Pivot Point
Thursday, September 20, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Range Bound Trade
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvMjWJko7xI/AAAAAAAACdI/TpjbIzNkCxI/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvMjWpko7yI/AAAAAAAACdQ/CUM6jFgh_88/s400/qqqq+15.png
If you had difficulty finding good setups outside of gappers today, you're not alone. Notice how the Qs traded in a NR, half the size of yesterday's already narrow range. One way to avoid the chop fest is to focus on stocks that trade outside of yesterday's range. I usually can find a few good candidates by sorting my watch list on % change. Then I focus on those stocks with the highest % change on either end of the list, winners and losers.
Tomorrow is the quarterly options expiration. Many options listed stocks will gravitate to their strike price, so again, we could be in for more NR trade.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: OPTM +13.6%; IHS +4.2%; NKE +1.5%; ORCL +0.10%... Trading Down: TEK -7.7%; DMND -6.6%; COMS -4.6%... Trading Up: GAP +1.7% (A&P, Pathmark enter into extension of timing agreement with the FTC); NDAQ +1.3% (John Eckel Joins Alliance as President and CEO)... Trading Down: JASO -3.9% (registration statement for proposed public offering of 4 mln ADSs; appoints President and Chief Operating Officer); EMIS -1.0% (files a $29.6 mln mixed shelf securities offering in an S-3); HAIN -0.9% (receives notice from NASDAQ due to delay in filing of Form 10-K); LEH -0.10% (Lehman's O'Meara to leave CFO spot - Reuters.com).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/20/2007 09:48:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Syntax-Brillian Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:BRLC)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvLWOsYvnJI/AAAAAAAACdA/jI7mXKAVioE/s400/brlc.png
The BRLC chart speaks for itself. Just click on the chart to enlarge and read my notes. NR inside bar at the base of the ORH - Sweet! I took a partial after three WRBs because that's one of my trading rules. The euphoric volume spike on the 4th WRB, was a big hint that the move was over. Plus the fact that price had extended 100% from the previous day low to the ORH.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvLVZMYvnII/AAAAAAAACc4/rdbnlWK7ydk/s400/ndaq.png The NDAQ is less obvious because it's a fade. My rationale here was the loss of the round $ number $38.00 at a low risk entry point. The preliminary target was R2 (red dotted line). Once it closed below R1, I thought we could go to P, but then it recovered R1 and I folded.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/20/2007 04:14:00 PM 12 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gap_Fade, Gapper, Pivot Point
Wednesday, September 19, 2007Focus List for Thursday Sept. 20th
Testing PP - BIIB, QCOM, SGR, UAUA
NRB inside on lower volume - AMZN, ALXN
Bearish engulfing - CROX, BCSI, FFIV (another offset), and MRVL
Gravestone Doji or variation thereof - JOYG, VSEA, FMCN, DLTR, and AKS
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Posted by Jamie at 9/19/2007 10:38:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
NASDAQ Technical Picture - QQQQ Tests July Highs Post Fed
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvHV9MYvnEI/AAAAAAAACcY/G0JwzHuYW-Q/s400/qqqq.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvHV9cYvnFI/AAAAAAAACcg/x-sPJWKBErA/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvHV9cYvnGI/AAAAAAAACco/zhXIqajWUBw/s400/namo.pngCarryover bullish momentum in the morning followed by a slow fade in the afternoon. We could get more post Fed profit taking tomorrow to help work off this overbought bias. Expect to see more volatility leading into Friday's quarterly OPEX.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: APOG +5.8%; CMTL +1.5%; CHNR +1.1%... Trading Down: CLC -7.4%; MLHR -4.4%; DDMX -2.8%... Trading Up: MPWR +5.9% (raises Q3 revs guidance above consensus); RDN +3.6% (sells portion of investment in Sherman Financial for $278 mln); NLY +2.1% (announces 3rd quarter dividend of $0.26 per share); SPCHA +1.8% (guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus); MTG +1.1% (sells portion of Sherman joint venture)... Trading Down: BCRX -30.1% (reports preliminary results from a phase II clinical trial of Peramivir in subjects with Acute Influenza, the improvement was not statistically significant); NPSP -3.4% (PREOS granted U.S. orphan drug status for treatment of hypoparathyroidism); PALM -1.8% (issues in-line EPS guidance for Q1; revenue guidance slightly below consensus).
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Posted by Jamie at 9/19/2007 10:05:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Watch List Trade of the Day - ArthroCare Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ARTC)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvGNAsYvm-I/AAAAAAAACbo/H0SOctLa6XE/s400/artc1.png ARTC was setting up as a short on the daily timeframe above. We had two NRBs under the 5/20 MAs and a crossover was imminent. Price tried to rally on the open but failed and quickly fell below the MAs on the 15 min. timeframe. After that it was just a matter of waiting for a dummy entry. Around midday, ARTC carved out a NR inside bar - NR7 at the base of S1. My target was the daily pivot (green line). The BO bar had high volume and closed near its lows, so no need to partial out at R2. The target was reached by early afternoon and closed on big volume which usually foreshadows the end of the move is near.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvGNA8Yvm_I/AAAAAAAACbw/U6rosDWiwHc/s400/artc.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvGNBMYvnAI/AAAAAAAACb4/mJheXBcAGG4/s400/cree2.png I ran a daily scan last night for 2 inside bars on declining volume and found two charts - CREE, and MCD. CREE is always interesting because it has such a high short float. Every time it takes out resistance the short squeeze comes into play. I messed up my alert and missed the early move, but I was able to jump in after an orderly 50% retracement.
I ran the scan again tonight but didn't get any interesting hits.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvGNBMYvnBI/AAAAAAAACcA/TK1eTgLYPz4/s400/cree.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvG8ZsYvnCI/AAAAAAAACcI/tki9KAxMSoE/s400/sgr.png SGR and JOYG were failures. Similar setups off of NRBs near R2 base. SGR still looks good on the daily, so we'll see what tomorrow brings.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvG8Z8YvnDI/AAAAAAAACcQ/32N8nV_gteQ/s400/joyg.png Updating the watch list - removing AFFX, FTEK, NTRI, EMC, TECD., and adding SPWR, QCOM, UAUA, and CREE.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/19/2007 04:54:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Dummy, Fibonacci, NBR, NR7, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Tuesday, September 18, 2007Watch List Trade of the Day - Cummins Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMI)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvCW58Yvm9I/AAAAAAAACbg/t9z3uBpOJFY/s400/cmi.png CMI, from last night's focus list, opened strong so I looked at the lower timeframes to plan an entry. The second 5 min. bar was inside at the base of the daily pivot and R1, so I took a dummy long. Did not re-enter after the FED because it popped up over 2 pts. immediately at 2:15. What a move!
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Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2007 11:25:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point, Watchlist
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Sigma Designs, Inc. (Public NASDAQ: SIGM)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RvCRnMYvm8I/AAAAAAAACbY/w_SyIrQIZbQ/s400/SIGM.png SIGM gapped up on the open and based sideways on R1 for two hours before extending. B&B and exit before the FED. SIGM didn't immediately pop after the FED announcement but it did hold support at the base of R2 so I had time to take another entry for a nice post Fed extension. SIGM is trading at all time highs - my favorite type of gapper - blue sky.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2007 10:43:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, Gapper
Late Postings Tonight
Late postings tonight, if at all, as I have personal business.
My gapper trade was SIGM. My WL trades were JOYG and CMI from last night's focus list.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2007 04:04:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, September 17, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Cautious Chop Ahead of the FED
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8uY3W4YvI/AAAAAAAACbQ/nWH-Hnj0HWQ/s400/comp.pngThe economic calendar is key tomorrow with PPI in pre-market and the Fed policy statement at 2:15 EST. I won't have any open positions when the FED speaks.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2007 09:47:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Monday, September 17, 2007Focus List for Tuesday Sept.18th
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8r5HW4YqI/AAAAAAAACao/XChDb6BEYog/s200/cmi.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8r5HW4YrI/AAAAAAAACaw/2NntoL4dfW4/s200/ntri.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8r5XW4YsI/AAAAAAAACa4/SI5MfaLMjHA/s200/NTAP.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8r5XW4YtI/AAAAAAAACbA/Ju_KD4uXR4g/s200/joyg.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8r5nW4YuI/AAAAAAAACbI/otcXAUp0sq4/s200/sndk.png Pivot Point Setups:
NTAP,SNDK short
JOYG, NTRI, CMI long
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Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2007 09:35:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Watch List Trade of the Day - Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:FMCN)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8cEHW4YpI/AAAAAAAACag/Z0Oj7RURIqk/s400/fmcn.png
FMCN broke out again on the open with a WRB. Initially, it looked like it might carve out two inside bars but instead we got a bearish tweezer top reversal (two consecutive candles with the same highs, the second of which is bearish - this is a minor candlestick pattern which requires confirmation) on bars 3 and 4 and price retraced in an orderly fashion back to the 38% Fib retracement of Friday's ORL to today's morning swing high.
The difference between a retracement and a reversal is volume. This retracement took place on fairly light volume so I kept coming back to it to see if it would set up another long entry. After pausing at the 38% level, it carved out a series of lower highs and I waited for price to consolidate that initial bounce before going long. As usual I took a partial when price approached the morning swing high. EOD it almost tagged R2.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru8aonW4YoI/AAAAAAAACaY/2qAgUNL4rMw/s400/RVBD.png RVBD carved out 2 inside bars (4&5) at the base of R2 but did not meet the declining volume criteria on the second inside bar so I passed. Eventually, it printed NR7 at a B&B level so I took the dummy long. It was very choppy and I took a partial out of fear of losing it all on lack of momentum.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2007 08:21:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci_retracement, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Dummy Gapper (Short) Trade of the Day - Barclays PLC (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BCS)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru7hJXW4YmI/AAAAAAAACaI/k0NAkVe0Ebo/s400/bcs.png BCS gapped down on the open and immediately started to retrace. It carved out a bearish tweezer top reversal pattern at the base of S2 pivot point. I took a dummy short on a break of the 4th bar. The BO didn't close near its lows, so I was on alert for a possible failure. The next bar tested the ORL and bounced. I guess I really believe in this candlestick reversal pattern because I had a chance to partial out on the test of the ORL and I chose not to. The next bar finally closed on its low and I knew my patience would pay off. I took a partial after three WR red bars and lowered my stop two pennies above last WRB. The reason I take a partial after 3 WRBs is that price gets too extended from the downsloping 5 period ema. On slower moving stocks, it's not necessary to do this. I expected price to consolidate and continue lower after lunch, but that didn't happen and I was stopped out on the balance. So on a Fib. extension basis, BCS did not meet the primary target of 38% from the previous day high to the ORL.
At the time of entry, I thought the setup looked similar to OONR7's signature setup. Maybe not cause I notice he didn't trade this one.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2007 04:15:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Tweezer_Top
Sunday, September 16, 2007Bullish Morning Star Reversal - QUALCOMM, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:QCOM)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru24aXW4YlI/AAAAAAAACaA/AVE4iEivTUE/s400/morningstar.jpgBullish Morning Star Reversal Pattern
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuzKQnW4YcI/AAAAAAAACY4/bk1So9x03Vg/s400/qcom1.pngA morning star or doji morning star is a three candlestick reversal pattern. It signals a bottom reversal after a downtrend or gap down. The first candle is a WR red bar. The second candle is a star or doji, the real body of which does not overlap with the previous red bar. The third and concluding candle in the pattern is green and it closes at least 50% of the length the first red stick.
As you can see from the 15 min. QCOM chart above, the first three bars of Friday's session carved out a bullish doji morning star. Because the third bar was so wide (bullish), I decided to trade it off of the 5 min. time frame below.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuzKQ3W4YdI/AAAAAAAACZA/kmU7BND92fY/s400/qcom.pngThe 15 minute FFIV chart below is a good example because it has two morning star patterns. The first one midday, did not satisfy the criteria 100% because the third bar did not close at least 50% of the length of the WR red bar. Ultimately, the pattern was a head fake, because after testing the high of the WR red bar, it continued the downtrend.
The second morning star reversal pattern later in the session meets the criteria 100% and sets off a momo move to the upside.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru2gynW4YfI/AAAAAAAACZQ/Tg-nfkxnUH4/s400/ffiv1.pngLowering the time frame to the 5 minute view, we see exactly what is happening as the morning star develops and it's interesting to note that we have 3 inside bars at the base of the PP (green line).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ru2gy3W4YgI/AAAAAAAACZY/b0e3IHu6McA/s400/ffiv2.png
The evening star is the exact opposite of the morning star and it marks the reversal of an uptrend. The patterns are quite reliable when all of the criteria are met. Generally speaking, the wider the third bar, the higher the likelihood of a generous move in the direction of the reversal.
A Powerful Reversal Pattern - Stocks and Commodities - Sept. 2004
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Posted by Jamie at 9/16/2007 02:09:00 AM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Doji, Morning_Star
Saturday, September 15, 2007Dummy 2 Inside Bars - Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:FMCN)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruv2PnW4YaI/AAAAAAAACYo/2xqewLZIEzA/s400/fmcn.png I was interested to see if we would get some follow through on the FMCN PP break from the previous day. From the daily chart above, we see that the PP break stalled at resistance marked by the red line.
FMCN tested the rising 50 period SMA on the open and bounced from there. After taking out the previous day highs, it consolidated, carving out two inside bars on declining volume. The only caveat was the long upper shadows on bars 3 and 4. However, bar 5 (2nd inside bar) closed strong, just edging above R1 (pale blue line). I took a dummy long on break of second inside bar. My target was R2 and it was met on the second bar. Since this is the second day of the move and the markets were down, I determined that R2 was probably the maximum attainable target under the circumstances, so I closed the entire position as price approached that level.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ruv2P3W4YbI/AAAAAAAACYw/NpvLSXUDl8Y/s400/FMCN2.pngTwo inside bars on declining volume works well on the 5 minute timeframe as well. A good example is CROX late in yesterday's session.
I ran a scan to find similar setups on the daily timeframe. The scan generated about 20 names. The best ones are ARBA, COG, FMD, NDAQ - long, and DSX short. I'll be adding these to my WL for the beginning of next week to see if anything pans out.
Related Posts: Dummy Trading Tip - Two Inside Bars
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Posted by Jamie at 9/15/2007 10:37:00 AM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: 2_Inside, Dummy, NR7, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Friday, September 14, 2007Pre-Market - Friday September 14th
Following yesterday's blue-chip inspired rally, futures indicate a lower open as European mkts tumbled after the UK's third-largest lender Northern Rock confirmed it had arranged emergency lending facilities from the Bank of England, with its mortgage portfolio used as collateral. The lender said its own portfolio of mortgages continued to function, but global investor demand in medium- and long-term mkts for senior unsecured and asset backed securities remained "greatly reduced". Shares in banks throughout Europe and the U.S. are lower on the news, and matters weren't helped when Societe Generale downgraded Deutsche Bank (DB) and Credit Suisse (CS) and Merrill Lynch downgraded American Express (AXP). Futures dropped even further after Retail Sales in Aug (+0.3% vs. consensus 0.5%) and Sales ex-autos (-0.4% vs. consensus +0.2%) came in lower than expected. It's also worth mentioning that the People's Bank of China raised its benchmark one-year lending rate for the fifth time this year, as expected, to a nine-year high of 7.29%. Despite these headlines, traders can look forward to another light trading day as Rosh Hashanah ends and today is not only Friday, but a Friday before a Fed meeting (9/18). Dow futures are currently -81; Nasdaq futures are currently -16; S&P futures are currently -9.8.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: PALM at Morgan Keegan, BBEP at Wachovia and AG Edwards; Downgrades: AXP at Merrill, IMCL at Friedman Billings... Today's Earnings calendar is empty... On the Economic calendar, Aug Industrial Production (consensus 0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 82.0%) will be released at 9:15ET, while July Business Inventories (consensus 0.3%) and preliminary Michigan Sentiment (consensus 83.5) will be released at 10:00ET.
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: LSCC -9.2%... Brokers (BoE provides emergency funding to Northern Rock, AXP downgraded at Merrill Lynch, DB and CS downgraded at Societe Generale): BSC -2.3%, GS -2%, LEH -1.9%, MS -1.3%, JPM -0.8%... Other news: SHPGY -9.2% (Vyvanse hyperactivity medicine misses analysts estimates.), BSC -4.9% (WSJ article "Barclays's ABN bid is ripe to spoil"), JASO -4.4% (Terminates agreement with former PowerLight Corporation), IMCL -4% (downgraded at Freidman Billings Ramsey), BOBJ -3% (downgraded at First Albany), CFC -3% (Wachovia lowers mortgage production estimates)
Gapping up on news: GGBM +9.0% (received an order for two 100 megabit WiFiber links from MetroNext), UNG +4.2% (nat gas recovering much of yesterday's losses as seasonal buying ramps up, traders look at yesterday's selloff as a buying opportunity, with Tropical Storm Ingrid also contributing to the strength), CRXL +3.2% (co announces that its researchers have discovered a monoclonal antibody that is active against H5N1 avian influenza), FTEK +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at ThinkEquity), NGSX +2.5% (profiled in Inside Wall Street - BusinessWeek Online), RIMM +1.3% (tgt upped to $110 at RBC, initiated with an Outperform & $100 tgt at BMO).
Gapping up: BRLC +2.0%, JRJC +2.0%, SNDK +1.5%, RIMM +1.3%... Gapping down: SHPGY -5.1%, BCS -4.8%, REP -3.0%, GFI -2.9%, BBL -2.7%, CFC -2.7%, GOLD -2.6%, RTP -2.4%, BOBJ -2.3%, CCL -2.3%, LEH -2.1%, INTC -2.0%, CS -2.0%, GM -1.9%, BP -1.8%, HBC -1.8%, ALU -1.8%, DB -1.7%, GSK -1.6%, BHP -1.4%.
INTC downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill
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Posted by Jamie at 9/14/2007 08:04:00 AM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Thursday, September 13, 2007Watch List Trade - Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:FMCN)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Runok3W4YTI/AAAAAAAACXw/c2cEtPBQdxo/s400/FMCN1.png The first chart is the daily timeframe with the PP at the green line. FMCN was on the focus list Tuesday night, but didn't break until today.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RunolHW4YUI/AAAAAAAACX4/Hqo8ceF4MYw/s400/fmcn.png Initially, I was looking for a B&B setup at the blue line. However, as time wore on it became clear that each stick was offsetting the previous one - green, red, green, red. This type of price action is totally unreliable in my opinion. Rather than watch it tick by tick, I decided to place a buy stop order above yesterday's late day highs. This gave me a much wider stop, but a more reliable setup.
When the third BO bar started printing red, I took a partial. FMCN retraced 38% which is normal after such a big move. When price subsequently closed back above R2, I reloaded. It started slow, but then we got three consecutive WRBs and a bearish tweezer reversal pattern - say goodbye and thank you. That second bar in the tweezer top pattern is also a bearish engulfing bar so there was no chance for a third wave.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/13/2007 09:42:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day (C&H) - Rambus Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:RMBS)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RummFXW4YRI/AAAAAAAACXg/U8cYhMo7TeU/s400/RMBS1.png RMBS and QCOM were gappers from the Briefing.com gapper list. RMBS carved out a textbook cup and handle as described here the other day.
It's easier to see on the 5 minute timeframe. Normally, we expect a 100% Fibonacci extension from the low of the cup to the base, however, this is RMBS which can be very momo. I did take a partial when price stalled and carved out a NRB at the 62% extension. I've had a few failed patterns in the past, so I didn't want to take a chance. Price retested the base in an orderly fashion and carved out an inverted hammer which confirmed bullish. I tightened the stop when I saw a hanging man.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RummF3W4YSI/AAAAAAAACXo/gKGgpGQ5kQg/s400/qcom.png QCOM was a reversal off of a bullish V bottom at the base of R2. The expectation on a pattern like this is a full retracement back to the ORH. That was achieved faily easily. After that I was hoping for another C&H to take shape. It did, sort of EOD. But I took an entry after a normal retracement (38%) off of a mini base after a higher low.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/13/2007 05:03:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Wednesday, September 12, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Gravestone Doji
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuirS3W4YQI/AAAAAAAACXY/HPjRw2fPl3s/s400/comp.pngA gravestone doji signifies weakness and we could be in for some consolidation or a pullback here. TXN earnings/guidance triggered weakness in the SOX which provided leadership in the afternoon selloff. Sell Rosh Hashanah seasonal could be in play. Expect lower volume due to the high holiday.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: GROW +6.7%... Trading Down: BRLC -25.8%... Trading Up: MCD +2.9% (announces $0.50 increase to dividend and total cash return tgt); ATRM +2.9% (receives orders for over $6.0 mln in gravity feed test handlers); TGT +2.6% (to review ownership alternatives for credit card receivables; co also to analyze capital structure); TIE +2.0% (TIMET and United Technologies enter into new long-term supply agreement); UNCL +1.3% (receives orders for over $6.0 mln in gravity feed test handlers)... Trading Down: AZPN -11.4% (doesn't report Q4 results; announces license bookings of $67 mln; co continues work on the restatement of previously issued financial statements); SCSS -9.5% (in 8-K co says "we are currently on track to achieve the low-end of our full year sales and earnings targets").
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2007 11:13:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Focus List for Thursday Sept.13th
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuifjHW4YNI/AAAAAAAACXA/JedB0-q6-d8/s200/gme.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuifjXW4YOI/AAAAAAAACXI/SpHIEzk9rm4/s200/vlo.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuifNXW4YII/AAAAAAAACWY/220LvgzAu-k/s200/intc.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuifNXW4YJI/AAAAAAAACWg/oRqD6U2pMs8/s200/vmw.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuifNnW4YKI/AAAAAAAACWo/4ciNXLeRsx0/s200/rimm.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuifNnW4YLI/AAAAAAAACWw/PXBmO7nN4iQ/s200/HANS.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RuifN3W4YMI/AAAAAAAACW4/xndglErBcoc/s200/teva.png Here some charts I'll be focusing on tomorrow. The full watch list for September is available in the Key Posts section of my side panel.
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Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2007 10:11:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Focus_List
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