Monday, July 16, 2007Dummy Gapper (Short) Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpwA-vtmjUI/AAAAAAAABzI/ja3st5LHtO8/s400/amzn.png
AMZN gapped down on the open and tried to recover but could not close above its down sloping 5 period ema. About an hour into the session we had a bearish 5/20 crossover, implying further weakness to come. When I see a bearish crossover, I want to short as close as possible to the 20 as it provides added pressure along with the 5.
Still I need to wait for a base to setup. As you can see from the chart above, I had only a two bar base, but I felt that the break of the base would take price down to the rising 50 period SMA which was my prelim. target.
I took a partial as price and the 50 came in close. I knew we would bounce, but as expected it was a weak bounce just waiting for the down sloping 5 period ema to catch up to price. Once price broke through the 50 MA, things started to speed up and the primary target - PP from Friday's ORL - was achieved in a swift, orderly fashion.
This trade has many similarities to my CMI short last week.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/16/2007 07:29:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, Pivot Point
Dummy Gapper Long - Riverbed Technology, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:RVBD)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpvQFftmjTI/AAAAAAAABzA/ATWYqBxx_dQ/s400/RVBD.png RVBD - Strong OR, followed by a bullish hammer which closed in the upper segment of the OR. The third bar is a hammer like star with a long lower shadow. The setup is at the base of RVBD's all time highs so it's a bullish gapper setup in the daily spot. I took a dummy long on the break of the 2nd bar high. RVBD rallied up to the 38% Fibonacci extension of the PDL to the ORH in one fell swoop at which point I took a partial. The breakout bar closed near its high which left the door open for some more upside and I allowed for a 38% retracement of the move so far. It retraced 38% and started to move up, then stalled. My thought was that it is carving out a lower high which means further retracement, so I decided to exit the balance of my position. Good decision.
Initial stop was 3rd bar low. After the partial, I moved my stop on the balance to break even.
I'll be back later with my short trade of the day -AMZN.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/16/2007 04:05:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Watch List - NTAP, FTEK,GROW, NTRI
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpsKQvtmjOI/AAAAAAAAByY/Hu8muxwFA8A/s400/NTAP.png NTAP - bullish rounded bottom. Buy on break of $30.00 - Preliminary target - $31.50.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpsKQ_tmjPI/AAAAAAAAByg/QjPG0JjIG6k/s400/ftek.png FTEK- Short break of $32.00 - Target - $30.00 pivot point support. Caveat - FTEK favorably profiled in Barron's this weekend under the Clean Tech Banner.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpsKRPtmjQI/AAAAAAAAByo/puNOe1DnciE/s400/grow.pngGROW - Base & Break at pivot point $24.75 - Prelim. target $26.65
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpsKRPtmjRI/AAAAAAAAByw/5COmjLqor2o/s400/ntri.png NTRI- Consolidating on declining volume - base and break above $73.15
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Posted by Jamie at 7/16/2007 01:45:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Saturday, July 14, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - McDermott International (Public, NYSE:MDR)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpjWTvtmjJI/AAAAAAAABxw/-is3TPQo9t0/s400/mdr.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpjWT_tmjKI/AAAAAAAABx4/WJYROdUDFv0/s400/mdr1.pngThe first two charts are dailies of MDR before and after yesterday's gap open and new all time high. The first thing to notice is that after a big run up leading to the July 6th all time high, MDR had a normal retracement (just less than 38%) of the last leg up, and had carved out two NRBs, the last of which closed on its highs.
Friday's gap up and early break above the ORH put MDR in the sweet spot with potential to take out, or at least test the July 6th high.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpjWT_tmjLI/AAAAAAAAByA/-2wP85p8Yqo/s400/mdr2.pngThe chart above is the 15 minute chart of my entry, exits and trade management. I liked the strong open - WR green bar. The second bar was a consolidation bar which closed at the base. I entered a dummy long as the third bar took out the OR highs. I took a 30% partial at the 50% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH. I then monitored the retracement on the lower timeframe below. It was very orderly and did not breach the 38% retracement level. The red line segments on the 15 min. view, mark my stops. I place my stops two ticks below the last WR green bar.
After retracing 38% of the move from the ORL to the first swing high, MDR rallied towards the all time high (thick blue line). On the first test, it easily broke through. The next bar started printing red and I took another 30% partial to lock in more gains. Upon completion, the red bar looks like a hanging man but the lower shadow is less than twice the length of the body, so it doesn't qualify as a true hanging man. That's me talking to myself, trying to convince myself to stay in the trade. I had a good feeling from the run so far that it wasn't over. This time the stock retraced 50% of the last leg up and found support at the morning swing high as depicted by the black arrows on the 5 minute chart below.
MDR slowly moved up towards the previous high and then spiked above it, topping the 100% extension level. It carved out a star with a long upper shadow signaling the end of the move, followed by a bearish doji spinning top. I raised my stop to this level and was taken out on the balance.
The key take-away here is that stocks trading in the sweet spot can keep moving higher. Check the daily timeframe of your gapper stocks to see if you have potential to take it higher and monitor the retracements. Look for topping reversal type candlesticks to indicate when the move is finally over.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpjWUPtmjMI/AAAAAAAAByI/TSHhVBKqXmM/s400/mdr3.pngBTW, MDR is a watchlist stock. I added it to the list last week along with SGR after Marco-MH497 left a comment on my watchlist post with reference to FWLT. Thanks Marco! Oh, and notice the move on SGR yesterday as well (unfortunately, it moved too quickly out of the gate for me).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpjWUPtmjNI/AAAAAAAAByQ/43ukXJgx8Kw/s400/amgn.pngThis last chart (AMGN) is another gapper trade I took yesterday. I liked the late day strength on Thursday and took this as a momentum continuation play. However, after consolidating a full hour after the OR, it had a nice break and then started to consolidate midway to the 25% extension level. I tightened my stop and booked a small gain. The reasoning here was that AMGN, being a gutter stock was running into too much resistance and would not reach the primary target. IMO, if a stock consolidates for a lengthy period before the break of the ORH, it shouldn't require more than a brief consolidation on the way up to the next extension level. After moving more than 50% of the distance between the ORH and the 25% extension level, it's too late for a retest of the base. A retest should occur immediately following the break. So, when the red bar closed near its low, I made a quick decision to tightened the stop.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/14/2007 09:39:00 AM 7 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Doji, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Hanging_Man
Thursday, July 12, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - New Multi-Year Highs
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpbVSPtmjGI/AAAAAAAABxY/u-yyV_vANxA/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpbVSvtmjHI/AAAAAAAABxg/ifwm7-7xipw/s400/comp15.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpbVTPtmjII/AAAAAAAABxo/ICIQEjEwjiE/s400/sox.pngThe NASDAQ has not seen this level since Feb. 2001. Today's gap up and momo move was due primarily to large institutional participation. Sectors pacing the way were semis, software and networking. The best way to play this type of action if you miss the early break, is to identify leading sectors early in the session and buy the dips. I'm very pleased to see semis taking back the lead as this has always been my favorite sector.
Economic calendar: Import/Export, Retail Sales at 8:30; Michigan Sentiment and Business Inventories at 10:00.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ESIO +5.2%; OAKF +2.7%; SABA +2.6%... Trading Down: VIMC -13.0%; CREL -5.2%; CTBK -1.4%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: GNTA +6.9% (NASDAQ grants extension for Genta to comply with listing requirements); PAYX +3.8% (declares 43% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.30 from $0.21 and $1 bln stock repurchase program); SABA +2.6% (appoints Mike Martini as CFO); AA +2.0% (withdraws offer for Alcan); FRPT +1.2% (acquires new vehicle production facility; ownership is effective today)... Trading Down: NEXT -13.4% (Results for Fourth Quarter to be Lower Than Expected); MVSN -8.5% (lowers Q2 EPS and revs below consensus; reaffirms 2007 EPS and revs in-line); SPC -6.4% (lowers FY07 rev guidance to $2.63 bln, vs prior expectations of $2.64 bln); SMTL -4.2% (lowers Q3 EPS and revs guidance below consensus); FNSR -1.5% (receives additional Nasdaq staff determination notice).
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Posted by Jamie at 7/12/2007 09:24:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade - FC Stone Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FCSX)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rpa5APtmjFI/AAAAAAAABxQ/69OiDdUiYZc/s400/fcsx.pngThis is a 3 minute chart of my gapper trade in FCSX which gapped up on earnings this morning. After gapping wide it consolidated the gap on declining volume and formed a triangle. I took a dummy long entry as price broke the triangle to the upside. Price quickly took out the ORH on accelerating volume and I thought I had a big winner on my hands. After breaking the ORH, price started to consolidate at the round number level. Suddenly I noticed a bearish tweezer top forming, so I tightened the stop to the ORH (blue line). As you can see from the chart there was a gap down at my stop so I suffered a lot of slippage. FCSX has an incredibly wide spread to begin with so its not for everyone. Lesson learned - careful when trading stocks that report earnings before the bell as opposed to AH. Conference calls can be very inconvenient to day traders.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/12/2007 07:25:00 PM 7 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Tweezer_Top, Volume
Base & Break - Intel Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:INTC)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpaQxvtmjCI/AAAAAAAABw4/oK5yHNuUTQ8/s400/intc.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpaQx_tmjDI/AAAAAAAABxA/M-xYAFIHdZM/s400/LRCX.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpaQyPtmjEI/AAAAAAAABxI/RtRoJ_qUxlE/s400/mnst.png Institutional buying was at work today (MNST selling). I noticed some buying in INTC in pre-market and decided to see if it was worth persuing. Yes indeed. SNDK also had a nice move and LRCX finally decided to join in as well. Semis were hot.
MNST was flashing red on my Trade_Ideas scanner all day. It finally paused to consolidate the morning losses and set up another dummy B&B entry.
I also traded a Gapper - FCSX and quickly decided I don't like this stock - the spread is extremely wide and when I was stopped out, a dollar profit turned into little more than half a pt. with slippage.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/12/2007 04:19:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break
Wednesday, July 11, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Price Pivots at Gap Support
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpWmV_tmjAI/AAAAAAAABwo/jyz3XsPWEoE/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpWmWPtmjBI/AAAAAAAABww/TSLw5Xqy-rU/s400/comp15.png
As you can see from the chart above, the first test of bullish gap support held and we rallied carving out a bullish piercing line on the daily timeframe. Volume was lower than yesterday with choppiness throughout most of the session. There's lots of resistance overhead especially from the unfilled portion of Tuesday's bearish gap.
Economic calendar: initial claims and trade balance at 8:30.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: JCTCF +17.1%; RECN +5.1%... Trading Down: RT -3.3%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: AEO +6.5% (Jun same store sales +8.0%; raises low end of EPS guidance range by a penny); HOTT +6.2% (reports June same store sales -4.0%); IRBT +5.2% (receives U.S. Military orders totaling $17.5 mln); ZUMZ +5.0% (Jun same store sales +13.7%)... Trading Down: ENDP -5.9% (announces that it is withdrawing guidance pertaining to filing date of its NDA for its Ketoprofen Patch); CAMP -4.9% (updated financial outlook for fiscal 2008 first qtr); ABT -3.8% (announces termination of contract with GE; see no impact on full year or Q2 EPS); MOT -1.4% (issues prelim Q2 results; co lowers Q2 revs below consensus; guides Q2 EPS below consensus).
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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2007 11:54:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Aggressive Gap Trade - JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:JASO)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpVCe-nxSGI/AAAAAAAABwY/FfB4zZvGGiA/s400/jaso.png JASO gapped down near yesterday's low on the open. I took an agressive short as price took out the round number $40.00 on the 3 minute timeframe above. I covered after it tested the ORL. Price then rallied back up to $40.00 and could not close above it or the downsloping 20 EMA so I shorted again. This time my target was the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL. I took a partial thinking that price would eventually move lower but unfortunately that did not happen so I covered the balance when price retested the morning low and still couldn't go lower.
The 15 minute chart below highlights JASO's pivot points. At the end of the day, we have a nice B&B setup at today's PP lows. So far, every test brings in buyers. Will it break tomorrow? I don't know, but if and when it does, my next PP target is $37.00.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpVCe-nxSHI/AAAAAAAABwg/YU9L7jxkmqM/s400/jaso1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2007 04:44:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Dummy Gap Fade - Infosys Technologies Limited (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:INFY)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpU8GenxSEI/AAAAAAAABwI/XXrTS0oRrJ0/s400/infy.png The first chart of INFY is the daily timeframe which shows that we have a lot of support at $50.00 from several recent price pivots.
The chart below is the 15 min. timeframe which shows how INFY bounced from the $50.00 PP and set up a dummy gap fade after basing at the ORH and carving out a NR7 trigger bar. I took a partial at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from yesterday's day high to today's low. My target for the balance was the 62% retracement level, but the market came into some weakness and I bailed as price came back to the 50% level.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpU8GunxSFI/AAAAAAAABwQ/n34Toi_CMt8/s400/infy1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2007 04:19:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gap_Fade, Gapper
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Tuesday, July 10, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Doji Evening Star on Higher Volume
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpQzSenxSCI/AAAAAAAABv4/d3E5MuHZLho/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpQzSunxSDI/AAAAAAAABwA/-CJ5tMFTfhY/s400/comp15.pngAs mentioned last night, a lower open and close would generate a bearish doji evening star and that's exactly what happened after some earnings weakness and a warning from Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD). The day's broad based selling occurred on higher volume which constitutes a distribution day. Despite the WR red bar, the NASDAQ closed above the breakout point. We'll see if that sliver of bullish gap support will hold tomorrow.
Economic calendar: Crude inventories at 10:30
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: INNO +14.4%; CCF +6.4%; VOXX +2.8%; VSGN +2.8; ZZ +1.2%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: TRCA +22.9% (announces agreement with Genentech for worldwide growth hormone and IGF-1 combination product development and commercialization); ZILA +8.3% (Executive and Board Chairman acquire stock); SGMO +7.6% (Sigma-Aldrich and Sangamo BioSciences announce alliance to develop zinc finger-based laboratory research reagents); SRDX +2.2% (and Paragon Intellectual Properties to collaborate on FINALE coated prohealing stent to combat late stent thrombosis); GMTN +2.1% (wins major legal victory); BRNC +1.9% (announces monthly operating results); NEST +1.7% (executes new public safety contract with the City of San Juan Capistrano, California); SJR +1.2% (announces stock split approval); NAVR +1.0% (Encore Software, wholly owned subsidiary of NAVR, signs agreement with Sony Online Entertainment); SMDI +1.0% (guides 1Q08 below consensus; announces resignation of President and Chief Operating Officer of Products Hank Jallos); MDU +1.0% (closes sale of domestic IPP companies)... Trading Down: VTAL -23.7% (guides below consenuss for Q2 & FY07); CPWR -17.2% (expects 1Q08 revs of $278 mln (consensus $301.57), sees EPS breakeven (consensus $0.11); CPKI -1.1% (reports preliminary results for Q2 generally in-line).
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Posted by Jamie at 7/10/2007 09:22:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper (Short) Trade of the Day - Cummins Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMI)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpPmB-nxSAI/AAAAAAAABvo/c7v7FCEiEdE/s400/cmi1.png Yesterday CMI presented a great gapper long opportunity and today it presented a great gapper short for those who were patient enough to wait for the setup to develop. CMI gapped down and attempted to rally on the open but only managed to tag yesterday's late day swing low. Then we had a lot of choppiness as buyers and sellers battled it out.
On the 5 minute minute chart below you will notice that CMI managed to close above the 20 ema, but was quickly shaken out on the next bar. This usually means that the bearish bias is intact and will develop into a good short over time.
Following the shakeout, price pulled back to the base and I shorted it on a break of the 15 min. 9th bar low. I took a partial as price approached the rising 50 MA. Once price fell below the 50MA, it could not recapture it on a closing basis, so that impiled more selling. I covered the balance after it tagged the 75% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpPmCOnxSBI/AAAAAAAABvw/PkbMEUYb06Q/s400/cmi2.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/10/2007 04:02:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Monday, July 09, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Extension
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpLU3enxR-I/AAAAAAAABvY/FG47F0TBwps/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpLc3enxR_I/AAAAAAAABvg/F1PFxr2WY8o/s400/sox.pngThe market is extended and this rally has been on low volume so I expect a technical correction soon. Today's doji could form part of a bearish doji morning star if we open and close lower tomorrow.
Economic Calendar: Wholesale Inventories tomorrow at 10:00.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Down: WDFC -9.4%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: RBY +28.7% (announced gold discovered at Rubicon's 100%-owned Alaska claims); GMST +18.2% (Gemstar-TV Guide announces review of strategic alternatives); CAKE +5.1% (reports prelim Q2 revs above consensus); S +4.2% (SK Telecom (SKM) plans to buy Sprint Nextel -- Bloomberg; SK Telecom (SKM) denies report it may acquire Sprint Nextel (S) -- Bloomberg); HALO +2.5% (announced final results of the Enhanze Technology clinical trial demonstrating improved absorption and bioavailability); DRI +2.3% (reports same store sales at Red Lobster increased 6-7%; Olive Garden increased 3-4%); INWK +1.9% (reports prelim Q2 revs above consensus); NAVR +1.7% (agreement to settle securities class action litigation; settlement will not have an impact on the co's earnings or cash balance); THRX +1.2% (announces "Positive" results from phase 2 clinical study); MOSY +1.0% (discloses in 8-K that on July 2, it entered into an asset purchase agreement and a transition services agreement with Atmel Corporation); LNC +1.0% (Partners announces agreement with Delaware Investments)... Trading Down: MHA -32.0% (announces results of Phase 2a studies for oral oleoyl-estrone; results fail to demonstrate meaningful placebo adjusted weight loss); UNCA -16.7% (sees Q3 EPS and revs below consensus); CACS -5.8%( sees Q2 EPS and revs below consensus); SONO -4.9% (to offer $150 mln of convertible senior notes); KNDL -3.1% (announces a $150 mln convertible notes offering); ATRC -1.5% (bipolar ablation clamp system receives FDA 510(k) clearance for cardiac use); PH -1.0% (to offer $150 mln of convertible senior notes.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/09/2007 08:36:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Cummins Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMI)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpKd_unxR9I/AAAAAAAABvQ/hE1QC5aKVnM/s400/cmi.png CMI was a highchartpatterns pick from the latest newsletter. I waited for a low risk base & break entry to develop and placed a dummy, buy stop order two pennies above the base (4th bar high). My stop was the previous bar low. I took a partial as price approached the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the 4th bar high. I watched for a normal retracement of 38% (last leg up) as CMI consolidated sideways before moving higher. I booked the balance of my profit as price approached the 75% extension. A big thanks to HCPG!
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Posted by Jamie at 7/09/2007 04:38:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Friday, July 06, 2007Base & Break Trade - Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:BIDU)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqOnxR6I/AAAAAAAABu4/6SfJumbVBXw/s400/bidu.png After gapping up on the open, BIDU retraced about 25% of the move from the previous day low to the ORH. It found support on its rising 5 period ema but did not immediately show much promise as it traded on declining volume. As time went on and price and volume narrowed, it appeared that BIDU was setting up for a base and break. Shortly after 1:00 EST, I placed a buy stop order a few pennies above the high of the base. I started monitoring it closely on the lower timeframe for clues as to when it might break. At 1:30 volume almost dried up which is what I look for just prior to a flat base breakout ( the lull before the pop as Michelle B. is fond of saying).
From that point on, price and volume increased steadily as BIDU approached my buy stop order. After the break there was a short period of retest and then volume kicked in propelling price upwards.
As you can see from the chart above I placed my Fib. Ext, from the previous day low to the base as opposed to the ORH. I took a partial after price tested the 25% Fib, extension and started coming back in. I knew we were going to consolidate the momo move so I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to help me adjust my stop on the balance of my position. A normal retracement is 38%. Anything more than that can be a reversal especially if it is accompanied with higher volume. I placed my stop just below the 38% retracement of the last leg up and it held nicely as BIDU consolidated on lower volume well above the 38% level. And then, BIDU went for the pysch level $200 and I closed the balance of my position as it approached the 38% extension level.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqenxR7I/AAAAAAAABvA/dL7SA1f0ijo/s400/bidu1.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqunxR8I/AAAAAAAABvI/59ZS2Swlm4Q/s400/cal.png CAL was pivot point B&B setup. I liked the convergence of the MAs as price approached the PP. Since the entry bar was WR, I used that as my stop. I partialed out at the round number level and closed the position shortly thereafter as volume levels did not inspire much in the way of further upside.
Flat Base - Key Points
The key take away for these flat B&B setups is to place your order a few pennies above the highest point of the base. It's best not to anticipate because these bases can last a long time and there's nothing more annoying than holding a position in the dead zone and not knowing if it will break. Price and volume contraction/expansion are the critical success factors in these patterns. If price does not expand sufficiently after the break, I usually start taking money off as price reaches a round number.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2007 08:04:00 PM 15 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point, Volume
Pre-Market - Friday July 6th
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: PMTC -18.2%, IBKR -9.6%, HWAY -4.3%, RUTH -4.8%, INTL -3.1%... Other news: LOCM -6.0% (profit taking after yesterday's 40%+ move), GENZ -4.0% (announces tolevamer liquid did not meet its primary endpoint), BRLC -3.0% (cautious Cramer mention).
Futures indicate a flat open for the mkt as the Labor Dept. reported that 132K jobs were added in June (consensus 125K), while payroll figures for May and April were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 75K new jobs. Hourly earnings rose 0.3%, matching economists' forecasts and bringing the yr/yr rate to 3.9%, while unemployment held steady at a low 4.5% rate for a third straight month. The mkt remains indecisive following the mostly positive data as the bond mkt sold off following the news, sending yields back to 5.20%. Dow futures are currently +5; Nasdaq futures are currently +1.5; S&P futures are currently +0.4.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: RDS.A and BP at Deutsche Bank... On the Earnings calendar, no cos are confirmed to report after the close... On the Economic calendar, nothing remains on the schedule for today.
Gapping up on earnings/guidance: AMCC +3.7% (co lowered guidance; TWP says the guidance is disappointing, but not surprising)... M&A related: BOT +2.9% (CME raises bid for BOT, largest BOT holder Caledonia announces support for CME deal; ICE is +1.7% as it appears more likely that CME wins BOT deal), (DJ +2.7% (The Business reports that Rupert Murdoch has succeeded with his $5 bln bid for Dow Jones -- formal announcement is expected next week), AQNT +1.4% (discloses the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act waiting period related to MSFT acquisition expired July 5)... Other news: TMTA +50.0% (announces that AMD has invested $7.5 mln in TMTA), CTIC +4.4% (co will hold shareholder meeting at 3:30 E.T. to update shareholders about co's activities), RDS.A +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), SIX +2.2% (SAC Capital discloses 5.2% stake).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2007 07:52:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Milestone Retracement
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro36T-nxR5I/AAAAAAAABuw/Vf-S7UtZDlI/s400/comp1.png
The NASDAQ has finally reached a major milestone - 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2000 high to the 2002 low!
Economic calendar: Jobs data at 8:30
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: PXPL +9.2%... Trading Down: HWAY -3.7%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: OPX +5.5% (changes name to Orchid Island TRS); SIX +3.2% (SAC Capital's Steven A. Cohen discloses 5.2% stake in SC 13G); EPHC +1.8% (announces 12% increase in assets under management)... Trading Down: PMTC -23.0% (preannounces Q3 revs below consensus; expects to lower Q4 and Y07 rev guidance); IBKR -10.2% (June quarter guidance details); TMWD -5.8% (guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus); CNR -1.0% (cancels secondary offering of up to 8 mln shares in Tethys).
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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2007 04:12:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, NASDAQ
Thursday, July 05, 2007Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro1PiOnxR3I/AAAAAAAABug/YLiqUThL61E/s400/amzn5.png AMZN is a basic pivot point trade from my watch list. The stock opened weak carving out a WRB with a long upper shadow and held support of Tuesday's low. The next bar was a doji which could not exceed the 50MA. Meanwhile, the three MAs were converging above price and the 5 and 20 had crossed over indicating a bearish scenario. I placed a sell stop on a break of the ORL. My stop was two cents above the second bar high. I took a partial at the intermediate support level and covered the balance when my target was reached. Although price did consolidate for a long time, it did not close above the downsloping 5 period ema.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/05/2007 04:06:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point
Wednesday, July 04, 2007Wall St. Warrior Blog - Site Map - Just Kidding - More along the lines of Getting Started
Who am I?
Systems and Software
Scanning for Gaps
Identifying Gaps
Wide Opening Range - How to trade this gap setup
Base & Break for Gaps - Trading Rules
Buying the Pullback - Trading Criteria
Pivot Points:
Basic
Revisited
Intraday
Formula Pivot Points
Compiling a Watch List - How To
What is NR7 ?- Read the last paragraph
Low Volatility Breakout
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Posted by Jamie at 7/04/2007 09:00:00 AM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Tuesday, July 03, 2007Base and Break Trades - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL), CREE, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CREE)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqQV-nxRzI/AAAAAAAABuA/naKcvGjQeq8/s400/aapl2.png I set an alert for AAPL in pre-market because I anticipated a test of the PP at $122. Sure enough the alert ($121.95) went off on the open. AAPL set up a low risk base and break at the $122 level (refer to 3 minute timeframe below). Once it broke $122.50, it rallied hard and fast. I took a partial at $124 and closed the position at the next PP $125. There was a lot of resistance at $125.00, so I was surprised to see it fly another 2 pts. after that. Looks like AAPL will take out its all time high again.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqU2OnxR2I/AAAAAAAABuY/QkSKHh-D2Cs/s400/aapl3.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqQWenxR1I/AAAAAAAABuQ/elRT676I0zg/s400/cree.png CREE, from last night's watch list, set up a low risk entry at the PP and rallied 1 pt. in less than 30 minutes.
Happy Independence Day!
Enjoy the holiday
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Posted by Jamie at 7/03/2007 02:02:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break
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Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Cummins Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMI)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpKd_unxR9I/AAAAAAAABvQ/hE1QC5aKVnM/s400/cmi.png CMI was a highchartpatterns pick from the latest newsletter. I waited for a low risk base & break entry to develop and placed a dummy, buy stop order two pennies above the base (4th bar high). My stop was the previous bar low. I took a partial as price approached the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the 4th bar high. I watched for a normal retracement of 38% (last leg up) as CMI consolidated sideways before moving higher. I booked the balance of my profit as price approached the 75% extension. A big thanks to HCPG!
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Posted by Jamie at 7/09/2007 04:38:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Friday, July 06, 2007Base & Break Trade - Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:BIDU)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqOnxR6I/AAAAAAAABu4/6SfJumbVBXw/s400/bidu.png After gapping up on the open, BIDU retraced about 25% of the move from the previous day low to the ORH. It found support on its rising 5 period ema but did not immediately show much promise as it traded on declining volume. As time went on and price and volume narrowed, it appeared that BIDU was setting up for a base and break. Shortly after 1:00 EST, I placed a buy stop order a few pennies above the high of the base. I started monitoring it closely on the lower timeframe for clues as to when it might break. At 1:30 volume almost dried up which is what I look for just prior to a flat base breakout ( the lull before the pop as Michelle B. is fond of saying).
From that point on, price and volume increased steadily as BIDU approached my buy stop order. After the break there was a short period of retest and then volume kicked in propelling price upwards.
As you can see from the chart above I placed my Fib. Ext, from the previous day low to the base as opposed to the ORH. I took a partial after price tested the 25% Fib, extension and started coming back in. I knew we were going to consolidate the momo move so I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to help me adjust my stop on the balance of my position. A normal retracement is 38%. Anything more than that can be a reversal especially if it is accompanied with higher volume. I placed my stop just below the 38% retracement of the last leg up and it held nicely as BIDU consolidated on lower volume well above the 38% level. And then, BIDU went for the pysch level $200 and I closed the balance of my position as it approached the 38% extension level.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqenxR7I/AAAAAAAABvA/dL7SA1f0ijo/s400/bidu1.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqunxR8I/AAAAAAAABvI/59ZS2Swlm4Q/s400/cal.png CAL was pivot point B&B setup. I liked the convergence of the MAs as price approached the PP. Since the entry bar was WR, I used that as my stop. I partialed out at the round number level and closed the position shortly thereafter as volume levels did not inspire much in the way of further upside.
Flat Base - Key Points
The key take away for these flat B&B setups is to place your order a few pennies above the highest point of the base. It's best not to anticipate because these bases can last a long time and there's nothing more annoying than holding a position in the dead zone and not knowing if it will break. Price and volume contraction/expansion are the critical success factors in these patterns. If price does not expand sufficiently after the break, I usually start taking money off as price reaches a round number.
http://s7.addthis.com/static/btn/lg-share-en.gif+50.0% (announces that AMD has invested $7.5 mln in TMTA), CTIC +4.4% (co will hold shareholder meeting at 3:30 E.T. to update shareholders about co's activities), RDS.A +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), SIX +2.2% (SAC Capital discloses 5.2% stake).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2007 07:52:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Milestone Retracement
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro36T-nxR5I/AAAAAAAABuw/Vf-S7UtZDlI/s400/comp1.png
The NASDAQ has finally reached a major milestone - 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2000 high to the 2002 low!
Economic calendar: Jobs data at 8:30
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: PXPL +9.2%... Trading Down: HWAY -3.7%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: OPX +5.5% (changes name to Orchid Island TRS); SIX +3.2% (SAC Capital's Steven A. Cohen discloses 5.2% stake in SC 13G); EPHC +1.8% (announces 12% increase in assets under management)... Trading Down: PMTC -23.0% (preannounces Q3 revs below consensus; expects to lower Q4 and Y07 rev guidance); IBKR -10.2% (June quarter guidance details); TMWD -5.8% (guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus); CNR -1.0% (cancels secondary offering of up to 8 mln shares in Tethys).
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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2007 04:12:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, NASDAQ
Thursday, July 05, 2007Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro1PiOnxR3I/AAAAAAAABug/YLiqUThL61E/s400/amzn5.png AMZN is a basic pivot point trade from my watch list. The stock opened weak carving out a WRB with a long upper shadow and held support of Tuesday's low. The next bar was a doji which could not exceed the 50MA. Meanwhile, the three MAs were converging above price and the 5 and 20 had crossed over indicating a bearish scenario. I placed a sell stop on a break of the ORL. My stop was two cents above the second bar high. I took a partial at the intermediate support level and covered the balance when my target was reached. Although price did consolidate for a long time, it 、
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Posted by Jamie at 7/04/2007 09:00:00 AM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Tuesday, July 03, 2007Base and Break Trades - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL), CREE, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CREE)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqQV-nxRzI/AAAAAAAABuA/naKcvGjQeq8/s400/aapl2.png I set an alert for AAPL in pre-market because I anticipated a test of the PP at $122. Sure enough the alert ($121.95) went off on the open. AAPL set up a low risk base and break at the $122 level (refer to 3 minute timeframe below). Once it broke $122.50, it rallied hard and fast. I took a partial at $124 and closed the position at the next PP $125. There was a lot of resistance at $125.00, so I was surprised to see it fly another 2 pts. after that. Looks like AAPL will take out its all time high again.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqU2OnxR2I/AAAAAAAABuY/QkSKHh-D2Cs/s400/aapl3.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqQWenxR1I/AAAAAAAABuQ/elRT676I0zg/s400/cree.png CREE, from last night's watch list, set up a low risk entry at the PP and rallied 1 pt. in less than 30 minutes.
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Cummins Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMI)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RpKd_unxR9I/AAAAAAAABvQ/hE1QC5aKVnM/s400/cmi.png CMI from the latest newsletter. I waited for a low risk base & break entry to develop and placed a dummy, buy stop order two pennies above the base (4th bar high). My stop was the previous bar low. I took a partial as price approached the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the 4th bar high. I watched for a normal retracement of 38% (last leg up) as CMI consolidated sideways before moving higher. I booked the balance of my profit as price approached the 75% extension. A big thanks to HCPG!
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Posted by Jamie at 7/09/2007 04:38:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Friday, July 06, 2007Base & Break Trade - Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:BIDU)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqOnxR6I/AAAAAAAABu4/6SfJumbVBXw/s400/bidu.png After gapping up on the open, BIDU retraced about 25% of the move from the previous day low to the ORH. It found support on its rising 5 period ema but did not immediately show much promise as it traded on declining volume. As time went on and price and volume narrowed, it appeared that BIDU was setting up for a base and break. Shortly after 1:00 EST, I placed a buy stop order a few pennies above the high of the base. I started monitoring it closely on the lower timeframe forof saying).
From that point on, price and volume increased steadily as BIDU approached my buy stop order. After the break there was a short period of retest and then volume kicked in propelling price upwards.
As you can see from the chart above I placed my Fib. Ext, from the previous day low to the base as opposed to the ORH. I took a partial after price tested the 25% Fib, extension and started coming back in. I knew we were going to consolidate the momo move so I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to help me adjust my stop on the balance of my position. A normal retracement is 38%. Anything more than that can be a reversal especially if it is accompanied with higher volume. I placed my stop just below the 38% retracement of the last leg up and it held nicely as BIDU consolidated on lower volume well above the 38% level. And then, BIDU went for the pysch level $200 and I closed the balance of my position as it approached the 38% extension level.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqenxR7I/AAAAAAAABvA/dL7SA1f0ijo/s400/bidu1.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro7ZqunxR8I/AAAAAAAABvI/59ZS2Swlm4Q/s400/cal.png CAL was pivot point B&B setup. I liked the convergence of the MAs as price approached the PP. Since the entry bar was WR, I used that as my stop. I partialed out at the round number level and closed the position shortly thereafter as volume levels did not inspire much in the way of further upside.
Flat Base - Key Points
The key take away for these flat B&B setups is to place your order a few pennies above the highest point of the base. It's best not to anticipate because these bases can last a long time and there's nothing more annoying than holding a position in the dead zone and not knowing if it will break. Price and volume contraction/expansion are the critical success factors in these patterns. If price does not expand sufficiently after the break, I usually start taking money off as price reaches a round number.
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2007 07:52:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Milestone Retracement
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro36T-nxR5I/AAAAAAAABuw/Vf-S7UtZDlI/s400/comp1.png
The NASDAQ has finally reached a major milestone - 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2000 high to the 2002 low!
Economic calendar: Jobs data at 8:30
Companies moving
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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2007 04:12:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, NASDAQ
Thursday, July 05, 2007Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Ro1PiOnxR3I/AAAAAAAABug/YLiqUThL61E/s400/amzn5.png AMZN is a basic pivot point trade from my watch list. The stock opened weak carving out a WRB with a long upper shadow and held support of Tuesday's low. The next bar was a doji which could not exceed the 50MA. Meanwhile, the three MAs were converging above price and the 5 and 20 had crossed over indicating a bearish scenario. I placed a sell stop on a break of the ORL. My stop was two cents above the second bar high. I took a partial at the intermediate support level and covered the balance when my target was reached. Although price did consolidate for a long
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Posted by Jamie at 7/04/2007 09:00:00 AM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, Pivot Point, Watchlist
Tuesday, July 03, 2007Base and Break Trades - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL), CREE, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CREE)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqQV-nxRzI/AAAAAAAABuA/naKcvGjQeq8/s400/aapl2.png I set an alert for AAPL in pre-market because I anticipated a test of the PP at $122. Sure enough the alert ($121.95) went off on the open. AAPL set up a low risk base and break at the $122 level (refer to 3 minute timeframe below). Once it broke $122.50, it rallied hard and fast. I took a partial at $124 and closed the position at the next PP $125. There was a lot of resistance at $125.00, so I was surprised to see it fly another 2 pts. after that. Looks like AAPL will take out its all time high again.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqU2OnxR2I/AAAAAAAABuY/QkSKHh-D2Cs/s400/aapl3.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqQWenxR1I/AAAAAAAABuQ/elRT676I0zg/s400/cree.png CREE, from last night's watch list, set up a low risk entry at the PP and rallied 1 pt. in less than 30 minutes.
Happy Independence Day!
Enjoy the holiday
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Posted by Jamie at 7/03/2007 02:02:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break
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Tuesday, July 03, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoqMk-nxRyI/AAAAAAAABt4/ujXDZkA5gwE/s400/cal.png CAL is one of my usual suspects. It's been on my watch list since it gapped up in Nov. 2006 and has been one of my favorites since then. I saw it trading in pre-market and decided to add it to my short list of focus stocks on the open. It opened with a WRB and consolidated the gap in the top half of the wide OR bar, making consecutive higher lows. It looked like a WOR Base and break setup. I entered a dummy long as price took out the fourth bar high (stop below 4th bar) and took a partial at the 38%Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH. After closing above the 50% extension, it started printing red, so I closed the balance.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/03/2007 01:49:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Monday, July 02, 2007Watch List - SLB, BIIB, CEPH, CELG, CREE, FWLT, QCOM
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomwjunxRxI/AAAAAAAABtw/-YMQ2jM-w-o/s400/slb.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomwV-nxRsI/AAAAAAAABtI/KEGFR6ZdDTg/s400/biib.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomwV-nxRtI/AAAAAAAABtQ/0GkY6TanSI0/s400/ceph.pngBoth CEPH and CELG carved NRBs today and look ready to move higher.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomwWOnxRuI/AAAAAAAABtY/mD1oSMCZVXM/s400/cree.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomwWOnxRvI/AAAAAAAABtg/g4LfVJFIgYI/s400/fwlt.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomwWOnxRwI/AAAAAAAABto/5O3LiQo926M/s400/qcom.png
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Posted by Jamie at 7/02/2007 10:08:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Retesting the Highs
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomuW-nxRrI/AAAAAAAABtA/0fPWb7nTS3Y/s400/comp.pngA solid start to Q3 with the help of data and declining 10 Yr interest. We are now setting up for a retest of the June highs.
Economic data: Factory orders and Pending Home sales at 10:00
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Down: UAPH -1.2%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: LXRX +9.4% (Develops antibodies that lower triglycerides and cholesterol as potential new therapy for heart disease); ISIG +6.9% (and Valassis expand strategic alliance to include retail distribution recruitment; extend agreement for ten years); ACAS +4.1% (will replace Dollar General (DG) in the S&P 500); LOCM +3.7% (Forbes article discusses patent news, analyst comments on potential takeover); DIO +3.7% (announced Judge grants Diomed permanent injunction in '777 patent case); RNO +2.9% (recommends acceptance of amended offer from Lundin Mining); BBG +2.7% (will replace Laureate Education (LAUR) in the S&P MidCap 400); FRPT +1.9% (US Army eyes seven-fold armored vehicle jump -- Reuters); NPLA +1.1% (appoints Steven Hanson CEO, previous CEO and CFO Bob Brilon resigns)... Trading Down: MOVI -55.6% (begins discussions with senior lenders after failing certain covenants under credit facility); QFAB -28.6% (reports on business developments); NLST -27.8% (guides Q2 below consensus); DTLK -15.7% (lowers guidance below consensus for Q2; has seen slow down in IT and storage spending with large customers); ANEN -3.8% (appoints Steven Hanson CEO, previous CEO and CFO Bob Brilon resigns); AGM -1.9% (reports officers' amendments to 10b5-1 trading plans); IMAX -1.4% (announces Nasdaq panel grants IMAX's application for continued listing); VASC -1.4% (comments on injunction ruling in Diomed patent litigation and increasing sales of New Bright Tip Fiber).
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Posted by Jamie at 7/02/2007 10:02:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA) and Foster Wheeler Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:FWLT)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomC5enxRnI/AAAAAAAABsg/mkcn0zsfs9U/s400/nvda.png NVDA gapped up with the market and set up a low risk dummy entry on a break of the ORH. It rallied and easily took out PP resistance and held it on the retest. Then it moved towards $43.00 at which point I took a partial. I was taken out on the balance with a tightened stop.
NVDA will likely attempt to test its all time highs shortly, so I am including the chart below with all of the PPs and S/R lines mapped out.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomC5unxRoI/AAAAAAAABso/ES6Hi0o1HLI/s400/nvda1.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RomD6-nxRqI/AAAAAAAABs4/bGI8C_nWDsg/s400/fwlt.png FWLT also gapped up with the market and after an early attempt to break the ORH that did not stick, it set up a low risk B&B entry at the base of the ORH. I took the dummy long entry which rallied nicely to the 25% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH. As price fell back under 25%, I took a partial and tightened my stop allowing for a 38% retracement of the last leg up. Price retraced 38% and started moving up again. It tagged the round number $110.00 and immediately stalled. As it consolidated, I tightened my stop and was taken out at $109.75. After a deep retracement, FWLT set up another low risk entry and proceeded to rally almost up to the 62% extension. Unfortunately, the last rally was without me as I had moved on and did not get back to it in time.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/02/2007 06:55:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Q2 Ends with Bearish Engulfing Pattern
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Roh43enxRmI/AAAAAAAABsY/n5NWUKRS-38/s400/comp.pngA weak end to a strong QTR. Notice that we had some high volume selling in the afternoon.
Econ. Calendar: ISM Index at 10:00
Due to the holiday shortened week, Tuesday is a half day session and Wednesday the markets are closed.
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Posted by Jamie at 7/02/2007 12:01:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Saturday, June 30, 2007Trade of the Day - Network Appliance, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTAP)
NTAP
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoXHLenxRjI/AAAAAAAABsA/puVFsq45K60/s400/NTAP2.pngAbove is the daily chart of NTAP which has been on my watch list ever since it gapped down on huge volume on May 24th. The key take away here is the pivot support at the $29.00-$28.70 level. After holding support in the $30.40 area for most of the month, NTAP gapped down again on Thursday, carving out a NRB. On the 15 minute timeframe below, you can see that it established a base and break setup which was begging to be broken on Friday.
As mentioned in my pre-market post yesterday morning, NTAP was gapping lower. On the open it tried to recapture the the base and failed. I took an aggressive entry with a stop just above the Thursday's closing highs. NTAP took a nice, orderly swoon into the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL at which point, I took a partial and tightened my stop, hoping it would extend to my PP support target of $29.00 which matched up with the 75% extension. It was a long wait, but NTAP finally came within pennies of the target in the afternoon.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoZugunxRkI/AAAAAAAABsI/CGMHytdEpIw/s400/ntap3.png
MRVL
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoW_2enxRgI/AAAAAAAABro/Zh9ffBzOr1E/s400/mrvl1.png Initially, the MRVL chart did not inspire much confidence because of the doji OR with a long upper shadow. However, after much narrow range choppiness, it appeared as if MRVL could be a B&B candidate as it twice tagged $17.87 followed by a shallow pullback. I entered a Buy stop limit order which was filled on the break. I watched carefully to make sure it didn't cave at the ORH. It managed to close above it and then ascend to the 38% Fibonacci extension.
My target was the 62% extension ($18.45) because that matched the PP resistance on the daily chart to the penny. I took a partial and planned to stay in the trade for a normal retracement (38%) of the last leg up. The strategy worked perfectly and I closed the balance of the position as price approached the target.
The next chart shows the retracement on declining volume after tagging the 38% extension and the last chart is the daily.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoZyu-nxRlI/AAAAAAAABsQ/Tel_t1wscBw/s400/mrvl.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoW_2unxRiI/AAAAAAAABr4/-QiLgS6ZBR4/s400/mrvl2.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/30/2007 10:17:00 AM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base and Break, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Thursday, June 28, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - NR, Low Volume Fed Session
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoRfOunxRdI/AAAAAAAABrQ/Icf6u5X6MIs/s400/comp.png It was a narrow range quiet session leading into the FOMC policy statement at 2:15. The statement itself failed to provide direction and we just chopped around afterwards. At the end of the session we are left with a doji (indecision) with a long upper shadow (bearish).
RIMM came through with a very bullish earnings report and the stock tagged $194.00 in AH trade.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoRfOunxReI/AAAAAAAABrY/3srpn7fu0rc/s400/rimm.pngCompanies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: RIMM +16.18%; RBN +8.88%; BBOX +6.0%; MU +1.93%; FINL +1.25%...Trading Down: CBK -8.65%; TIBX -3.65%; ARRO -3.65%; COMS -3.55%; EGLS -2.80%; PALM -2.48%...Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CRYO +28.48% (Co and Boston Scientific announce strategic collaboration in atrial fibrillation; BSX purchased shares of CRYO); HLYS +9.27% (announces the withdrawal of its registration statement with SEC); APOL +7.92% (Board of directors approves up to $500 million in share repurchase); KOMG +7.64% (Western Digital to acquire Komag; $32.25/share in cash); COLY +4.23% (grants Dynavax license for commercialization of HEPLISAV) ACN +1.59% (raises FY07 EPS to $1.94-1.96 vs $1.93 Reuters consensus, up from $1.88-1.93); CYTK +1.46% (anti-cancer activity supports further development of Ispinesib in additional breast cancer trial); ROY +1.29% (updates investors on significant Development, Exploration and Pre-Feasability projects) ... Trading Down: AHM -10.86% (withdraws 2007 earnings guidance; Q2 loss will be limited); PPHM -10.65%.
Economic Calendar: Personal income/spending and Core PCE inflation at 8:30; Chicago PMI at 9:45; Construction spending and Michigam sentiment at 10:00.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/28/2007 09:19:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Doji, NASDAQ
Pivot Point Trade - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoRKmOnxRbI/AAAAAAAABrA/D9C70_Cj0hM/s400/amzn.png The first chart is a wide view of the 15 min. timeframe for AMZN. The key take away here is how to map out the pivot points (blue lines - areas where price pivots and changes direction). The other thing to notice is that AMZN carved out a base over the prior two sessions and could have been in a position to move at any time. Today it opened at the cusp of the lower PP and set off my alert.
I moved to the lower timeframe and watched as it developed one of my favorite bullish bases - the W pattern with a higher low on the second dip. As price moved back up towards the ORH, I entered a stop order 2 pennies above the base. My order was filled as price and volume spiked. There's no retest of the base on this pattern, it just moves vertically at a very good clip. Notice that volume contracts on the second dip of the base. This setup works best on high volume NASDAQ stocks. Don't expect the same result if the second dip carves out a lower low. The criteria for this setup is that it must take place at the base of a PP and the W formation on the 1 minute timeframe must have a higher low on the second dip. Volume spikes on the breakout.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoRKmOnxRcI/AAAAAAAABrI/POUK8WHjWSA/s400/AMZN1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/28/2007 07:53:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Cisco Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSCO)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoQ9penxRYI/AAAAAAAABqo/qY2CcQwW-_g/s400/csco.png CSCO showed up on my IB pre-market scanner. It gapped up and formed a shallow rounded base on the 5 min. timeframe below, allowing for a relatively early entry. My entry and stop were based on the 5 minute timeframe but once in, I managed the trade from the 15 minute timeframe above. I move my stop 2 pennies below each WRB upon completion. I took a partial at the 38% extension and when that bar completed itself, it carved out a doji with along upper shadow, so again I moved the stop two pennies below the doji, in case of a sudden reversal. CSCO rallied further with another WRB and then managed to move up to the 50% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH (same on both timeframes). The next bar started to print red and I closed my remaining position.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoQ9punxRZI/AAAAAAAABqw/CmRXIjYz7zc/s400/csco1.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoQ9p-nxRaI/AAAAAAAABq4/-QM9ZioSUNk/s400/auy.png My second gapper trade, AUY, was from the briefing.com gapper list and set up as a typical Trader-X style trade. It took out the ORL when it was still too far from the 5 period ema and then proceeded to carve out a bearish flag. The last bar of the flag, attempted to regain the 5 MA but failed and printed a bearish doji with longer upper shadow. It closed below the 5 MA at the cusp of the ORL, signaling further downside and I entered short on the next bar. Pennies can be significant on these lower priced stocks so it is important to get a good entry and to plan the exit just above the extension so as not to chase to cover the trade.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/28/2007 06:56:00 PM 14 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Wednesday, June 27, 2007Base and Break Trade - Cephalon, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CEPH)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoLOhenxRXI/AAAAAAAABqg/HbIQ0cw5vHw/s400/ceph.png Amtech put in a good word for CEPH this am. It worked. The stock rallied all the way back up to its 50 DMA. On an intraday basis, it rallied from the open to its upper PP before stopping to consolidate. It then carved out a u-shaped bullish base and set up a low risk, B&B pattern. The target was the 50 DMA at $80.10.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/27/2007 04:53:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout
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Wednesday, June 27, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - NIKE, Inc. (Public, NYSE:NKE)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoLCGenxRWI/AAAAAAAABqY/Ib86CUFRwLE/s400/nke.png NKE gapped up on earnings and retraced slightly more than 38% of the move from the previous day low to the ORH. It then rallied back to the ORH but failed to capture it on a closing basis. This is not surprising because the retracement was quite deep and therefore, the stock was exhausted. That's why I prefer stocks that retrace less than 38%. On the next pullback, it carved out a higher low, price and volume contracted and the next attempt to break the ORH succeeded on a closing basis, so I entered long on the next bar. Price ascended in an orderly fashion until the last half hour when price ripped through the 38% extension and reached the 50. Fibonacci extension from the previous day low to the ORH.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/27/2007 03:57:00 PM 9 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Tuesday, June 26, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Holding the 50 MA
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoHiPenxRTI/AAAAAAAABqA/Izh7vh3HxzM/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoHiPunxRUI/AAAAAAAABqI/T1ZbtxJjE9Y/s400/namo.pngAnother low volume, directionless day for the NAZ as we await the FOMC on Thursday. All major tech sectors ended the session in the red except biotechs which held a tiny gain into the close.
Economic calendar: Durable orders at 8:30; Crude inv. at 10:30.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SPEC +6.85%; NKE +4.79%; FUL +2.30%; ORCL 1.15%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CKNN +0.93% (announces new contract for powercash); DVAX +0.87% (starts HEPLISAV phase 3 in Europe; U.S. Study; and phase 2 in ESRD in Canada) VTIV +0.74% (acquires Chandler Chicco and Innovative Health) YRCW +0.69% (Plans to acquireShanghai Jiayu Logistics)... Trading Down: NUVO -19.16% (NUVO and Bayer HealthCare have agreed to terminate their collaboration on Alfimeprase); GSCI -5.58% (maintains Q2 and FY07 financial guidance).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2007 11:46:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Target Corporation (Public, NYSE:TGT)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoGjNunxRQI/AAAAAAAABpo/YRp4nEubXqc/s400/tgt.png TGT was on Briefing's gapper list this morning (same store sales at low end of guidance). At the outset it did not look promising, however, patience paid off as it set up a nice dummy, base & break pattern just above the ORL. I took a full profit at the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day high to the ORL as I had to leave early and my cutoff was 3:00 p.m. EST. You could also have waited for the ORL to be taken out as this also set up a dummy entry.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoGjN-nxRRI/AAAAAAAABpw/VgMWb5fuFRQ/s400/hans1.png The chart above is the 15 min. timeframe of HANS. The point I want to make here is that a down trending stock will rally up to the 50 MA but won't be able to hold it. HANS did this yesterday and today, setting up nice, clean shorting opps on both days.
The chart below is the 5 minute timeframe which shows my entry on a mini base & break setup. I took a partial when price fell into yesterday's late day support zone. My target on the balance was $42.50 but I closed the position because I had to leave. Just after my exit, price fell within 5 cents of the target.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoGjN-nxRSI/AAAAAAAABp4/MEYvQttbCLo/s400/HANS.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2007 07:34:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Pre-Market - Tuesday June 26th
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: RAIL -4.8%, WMAR -4.3%, LEN -3.4%, SCS -2.6%, KR -2.6%... Other news: LYO -4.0% (trading lower following Basell's proposed acquisition of HUN, as traders may now view potential LYO takeover as less likely), HSOA -3.4% (boutique firm making cautious comments), ADBE -2.0% (downgraded to neutral at tier-1 firm), TGT -1.3% (sees June same store sales near low end of 3-5% guidance).
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: GORX +10.9%... M&A: VMSI +51.6% (to be acquired by Roche for $75.00 per share in cash), EAS +20.9% (to be acquired by Iberdrola for $28.50 per share), HUN +16.4% (Basell agrees to buy Huntsman Corp for $25.25/share in cash- Bloomberg)... Continued momentum in select solar names: HOKU +6.2%, DSTI +4.6%... Other news: CTIC +4.4% (co says publication on Pixantrone preclinical studies demonstrates reduced Cardiotoxicity), BPHX +3.2% (co migrates billing system as part of multi-million dollar modernization project for Israel local authorities), SMSI +3.1% (initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan), TASR +2.3% (co says white paper indicates TASER devices reduce excessive use of force liability claims and litigation against law enforcement; also hearing positive chatter related to potential contract).
BIDU upgrade is also gapping up.
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2007 08:31:00 AM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, June 25, 2007Trade of the Day - Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:HOKU)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoAqT5s2AkI/AAAAAAAABpY/k9dFxzJPd94/s400/hoku.png Another big day for HOKU. After retracing 38% (Fibonacci) of the last leg up on Friday, HOKU opened stronger and setup a nice long entry on a break of the ORH. I took a partial as price tagged the long-term pivot point and closed the balance at $11.50 as the stock printed two euphoric volume spikes on WRBs. We did not manage to close above the PP which is normal after euphoria has been reached, however, I'm sure that HOKU will retest today's high shortly.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RoAqUZs2AlI/AAAAAAAABpg/4X5gjaOieT0/s400/the.png THE opened with another downward thrust, but fell into support and reversed shortly thereafter, setting up a retracement trade. I was hoping we might get a little more mileage on this one after all that selling, but the markets weakened in the afternoon and THE followed suit.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/25/2007 04:47:00 PM 15 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Pivot Point
Sunday, June 24, 2007Watch List - FWLT, JOYG
The following are 15 minute charts of Foster Wheeler Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:FWLT) and Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rn8t2Js2AiI/AAAAAAAABpI/0Im05XP0GrE/s400/fwlt.png Friday's strong finish could foreshadow a retest of the upper PP for FWLT.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rn8t2Zs2AjI/AAAAAAAABpQ/IJyrmfUmTlM/s400/joyg.png Two consecutive lower highs implies weakness and a potential break towards the lower PP for JOYG.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/24/2007 10:51:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Setting Up for a Trendline Retest
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rn8pgZs2AfI/AAAAAAAABow/wQ8G4_PG_cg/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rn8pgps2AgI/AAAAAAAABo4/o9Oz0FyafdY/s400/comp15.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rn8pgps2AhI/AAAAAAAABpA/TtX13ykfXfE/s400/namo.png Could be an interesting week as we set up for another test of the trendline.
Economic Calendar: Existing Home sales at 10:00.
RIMM reports earnings on Thursday.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/24/2007 10:31:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - TODCO (Public, NYSE:THE)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rn8j6Zs2AdI/AAAAAAAABog/E8sdvNzE1HI/s400/the.png THE was a watchlist stock setting up for a break to the downside. It took longer than anticipated, but when it finally gapped slightly lower on Friday, I watched it carefully as it set up a low risk dummy short on a break of the ORL. It had a great risk:reward ratio of 1:10.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rn8j6ps2AeI/AAAAAAAABoo/91W559vsLP0/s400/tasr.png TASR set up a nice gapper dummy long after carving out a perfect hammer reversal bar followed by a low risk base and break. However, shortly after breaking out it printed a doji evening star like reversal, so I took the first opportunity to scratch the trade. Similar setups in the recent past have worked very nicely but TASR just traded sideways. Cross reference the charts for RS and OSG.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/24/2007 10:08:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper
Thursday, June 21, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Triumph Early Weakness
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rns9mZs2AbI/AAAAAAAABoQ/n7zPFOlh0j0/s400/comp15.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RntAdps2AcI/AAAAAAAABoY/xXDftnYXe6I/s400/sox.pngA nice pivot on the 10:00 reversal and the bulls take over. The $SOX provided leadership.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: FREE +32.2%; JBL +6.9%; COHT +3.4%... Trading Down: TEK -1.7%; COGN -1.5%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CORS +11.9% (approves a special cash dividend on common stock of $1.00 per share); ICGN +10.0% (receives notification from McNeil of termination of collaboration agreement); SIRF +3.8% (to acquire Centrality Communications for approx $283 mln in stock and cash); MBLX +3.5% (announced German court confirms validity of Metabolix patent)... Trading Down: NUAN -1.8% (to acquire Tegic Communications); HOLX -1.4% (to acquire BioLucent for approx $70 mln); SWC -1.1% (announced tentative labor agreement has been reached for Stillwater Mine and processing facilities).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2007 11:09:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:HOKU) Short Squeeze Spans Two Long-term Pivot Points
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnsZ4Js2AYI/AAAAAAAABn4/smMlj5lk2yY/s400/hoku5.png The first chart is the 5 min. timeframe of HOKU. Before entering long, I wanted to make sure that the long-term pivot point from the monthly chart below was secured. After much chopping around I decided to exit at the 38% extension because I didn't like all these red doji sticks.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnsZ4Zs2AZI/AAAAAAAABoA/k3khp-uXI_o/s400/hokumth.png Monthly chart identifies pivot points.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnsZ4ps2AaI/AAAAAAAABoI/V01ifeIHVfM/s400/hoku15.png When I checked back on HOKU later in the day, I noticed it had taken out the morning swing high on big volume. I realized it was going to make its way to the next level PP. I waited patiently as it consolidated and decided to re-enter on a dummy B&B. By the end of the day, HOKU came within pennies of tagging the upper PP.
As Bigfish noted in the NVDA comments, there are no shares available to short so this a short squeeze. Keep it on the watchlist as I have a feeling we're not done yet.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2007 08:34:00 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
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Thursday, June 21, 2007Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnrhtps2AWI/AAAAAAAABno/n4jLAKhzvgo/s400/nvda15.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnrht5s2AXI/AAAAAAAABnw/FP3FMDQpdJQ/s400/nvda5.png NVDA gapped up on high volume. On the 5 minute timeframe it carved out a higher low and set up a nice base and break pattern. I took a low risk long and was prepared to bail if it could not break the ORH given the weak market open. My worries were unwarranted as you can see from the 15 minute timeframe, it did a vertical move, exceeding the 75% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH.
I took a partial and moved my stop just below the first consolidation bar. After consolidating for about an hour, it extended up to the 138% Fib. level at which point, I closed my position thinking that was a near top. I was wrong about the top. NVDA, as you know is in blue sky territory, so its hard to know when it will stop.
I'll be back later this evening to look at HOKU, another one I fumbled with (early exit only to get back in later). HOKU is a great example of how to use pivot points from the longer timeframe to help manage the targets.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2007 04:34:00 PM 11 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Mid-day Recap
The mkt opened flat this morning and immediately attempted a continuation of yesterday afternoon's sell-off before trading back to unchanged levels. It saw a quick uptick following the June Philadelphia Fed number (18.0 vs. consensus 8.0), but has since sold-off into mid-day and is currently trading in the middle of this morning's range. Dow is currently -35 to ~13456; Nasdaq is currently +1.5 to ~2601.5; S&P is currently -1 to ~1512. Today's strongest sector is Semis as AMD and NVDA were upgraded pre-market and HOKU is higher after signing a polysilicon supply agreement with Solar-Fabrik. Today's weakest sectors include Restaurants (multiple CAKE downgrades following conference presentation yesterday; BWLD downgrade as well) and REITs... M&A Rumor Review: A slew of takeover rumors have made the rounds today. Among the names circulating are MDTL, TSN, IRF, WPI, FCX and SHO, as well as EDS-for-BE and AMZN-for-NFLX... The Bond mkt has been trading slightly lower today following a slight uptick after the Initial Claims number (+10K to 324K) and almost no reaction to today's other economic data (May Leading Indicators, 0.3% vs. consensus 0.2%, and Philly Fed). The 10-yr is currently -04/32 to 5.149%...
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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2007 12:43:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, June 20, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Gap Filled
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnnlL5s2AUI/AAAAAAAABnY/AurzLVAIEN8/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnnlMJs2AVI/AAAAAAAABng/lkW9b_ywTp8/s400/comp15.png
Finally, we broke the three day, narrow trading range. Friday's bullish gap has been wiped out by a bearish engulfing bar, so the bears have the upper hand. Let's see if they follow through.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: WSCI +11.7%... Trading Down: SONC -3.9%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: HOKU +14.8% (Coand Solar-Fabrik Subsidiaries sign polysilicon supply agreement, announces plans for solar strategy); BDCO +12.3% (subsidiary enters into new pipeline transportation agreement); PANC +12.9% (announces substantial antiviral response in bevirimat 250 mg cohort, data support further dose escalation in phase 2b study); ANDE +9.5% (raises 2007 EPS guidance above consensus); CPST +4.7% (announces new distributor agreement for the United Kingdom & the Republic of Ireland); NPO +2.2% (acquires Canadian compressor business); WYE +2.0% (New WHI data show that women aged 50-59 taking oral estrogen therapy had reduced levels of coronary artery calcification); CDR+1.3% (appoints Lawrence Kreider, Jr. as Chief Financial Officer); WWE +1.2% (signs deals in Poland, Serbia, Greece and Turkey); GBTB +1.1% (announces share repurchase program of up to $10 mln of the Co's outstanding common stock).
Economic Calendar: Initial claims at 8:30; Leading Indicators at 10:00; and Philadelphia Fed at noon.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/20/2007 10:39:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Bearish Engulfing, Gap_Fill, NASDAQ
Pivot Point Trade - Network Appliance, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTAP)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnndm5s2ATI/AAAAAAAABnQ/zN8-eb6csVg/s400/NTAP1.png Click on chart to enlarge
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Posted by Jamie at 6/20/2007 10:07:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Pivot Point
Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Matrix Service Company (Public, NASDAQ:MTRX)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnm-sps2ARI/AAAAAAAABnA/mycWeNptzWU/s400/mtrx.png As mentioned in the briefing list, MTRX was gapping down on weak guidance. I had my eye on it in pre-market as it cratered from yesterday's all time closing high. Shortly after the open it started trading in a very narrow range and I decided to place a sell stop order on a break of the $25.90. As you can see from the 3 min. timeframe, it fell very nicely and came within 15 cents of the 38% extension. I was stopped out for a gain of 1+ pts.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnm-uZs2ASI/AAAAAAAABnI/X4shA5dXh58/s400/jcom.png JCOM gapped up on momentum from yesterday's late day rally. It retraced and then carved out a NRB on support of the rising 5 period ema and I entered a dummy long on a break of the third bar high. It went up towards the 25% extension and started to consolidate again, so I was on guard for a potential reversal. It eventually took out the 25 % extension and I booked a partial profit. More sideways action through lunch and finally a doji star alerted me that it would not likely meet the 38% target, so I tightened the stop.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/20/2007 07:47:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Late Postings Tonight
Finally, a wider trading range for the NAZ. I will posts charts later this evening.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/20/2007 04:04:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, June 19, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Groundhog Day
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnh_OZs2AQI/AAAAAAAABm4/rpQJVaZGSjQ/s400/comp15.pngExcluding the gap down on the open, today was the same as yesterday. Until we break the narrow trading range, good setups are hard to find.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: IHS +7.2%; CLC +5.0%... Trading Down: FSII -9.5%; DRI -4.6%; LZB -1.0%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: AVRX +7.6% (announces positive interim results for AVN944 Phase I trial); HD +5.4% (confirms agreement to sell HD Supply to private equity group for $10.3 bln and $22.5 bln increase in share repurchase authorization); FRPT +4.7% (announces $221.7 mln contract -- DJ); FTEK +1.1% (and ITOCHU announce teaming agreement to pursue FUEL CHEM opportunities in China)... Trading Down: BW -9.2% (lowers Q2 EPS guidance; lowers FY07 EPS guidance); PRW -4.9% (enters into definitive agreements for a $2.7 mln financing); AFN -3.2% (announces a public offering of 8 mln shares of its common stock); OVEN -2.5% (announces it will need to restate historical financial statements to recognize material non-cash charges for stock-based compensation); ATSI -1.8% (Y07 revs guidance above consensus; issues Y08 revs guidance; co to acquire CryoCath Technologies' Surgical Cryoablation Business).
Econ. Calendar: Crude inventories tomorrow at 10:30.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/19/2007 09:02:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Intraday Pivot Point Trading - Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:RVBD)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnhr-ps2ANI/AAAAAAAABmg/W_XGj_M3Rs0/s400/RVBD.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnhr-5s2AOI/AAAAAAAABmo/ieOIkHvxu1A/s400/RVBD1.png
Look for stocks that are trending up or down. For longs, when price carves out a NRB on PP support with convergence of 5/20 MAs, look for a low risk entry. If price stalls at the next PP level, start booking some profit and move stop to breakeven.
For shorts, looks for stocks that cannot close above the downsloping 20 MA and then find your NRB.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/19/2007 07:48:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NR7, NRB, Pivot Point
Dummy Watch List Trades - TBS International Limited (Public, NASDAQ:TBSI), and Transaction Systems Arch. (Public, NASDAQ:TSAI)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rng-gZs2ALI/AAAAAAAABmQ/xa0XC2x0YPc/s400/tbsi.png The market gapped lower on the open and both TBSI and TSAI held their 50 SMAs on early weakness. After recapturing its 20 and 5 emas, TBSI carved out a NR7 bar and setup a low risk long. It ascended steadily towards its B&B resistance line (blue line). Notice how it consolidated briefly at the blue line before breaking out.
I hesitated a bit with TSAI, and waited for price to consolidate before entering long. Again, it paused at the blue line before breaking out. TSAI was a little choppier so I took a partial.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rng-gps2AMI/AAAAAAAABmY/ujNY0O5VxeE/s400/tsai.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/19/2007 04:34:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Watchlist
Pre-Market - Tuesday June 19th
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: MCHP -7.2%, BBY -3.5% (CC -3.2%, RSH -2.2% down in sympathy with BBY, but on light volume), LEG -1.6%... Other news: ALTH -15.3% (Phase 3 Enrich study of Efaproxyn fails to meet primary endpoint of improvement in overall survival), IMMR -4.5% (Microsoft files suit against co), VOD -1.8% (T CEO said co is not considering an offer for VOD, according to FT), WYNN -1.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), CSG -1.1% (Reuters reports co will cut jobs as drinks sale nears).
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: LNET +4.1%, FDS +3.0%... M&A: CLRK +12.1% (to be acquired by PHG for $34 per share)... Other news: EXPE +16.3% (announces co will repurchase up to $3.5 bln of its common stock in tender offer), EPIX +13.0% (FDA indicated that further clinical trials may not be necessary to gain approval for Vasovist), ZGEN +8.2% (establishes global collaboration with Bayer HealthCare for development and commercialization of recombinant human thrombin), HRS +3.9% (awarded $2.74 bln Navy contract, according to DoD), TASR +3.8% (announces foreign order totaling 1,375 TASER X26 devices), NUVO +3.0% (announces publication of Phase 2 rNAPc2 study results in Journal of American College of Cardiology), YHOO +1.7% (announced resignation of CEO Terry Semel).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/19/2007 09:21:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Monday, June 18, 2007Watchlist - ESRX, IFIN, FWLT, TBSI, TTEK, TSAI, CROX
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RndBzps2AEI/AAAAAAAABlY/m2FeC7Oh3Sk/s400/esrx.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RndBz5s2AFI/AAAAAAAABlg/gxwUUpHsC4k/s400/ifin.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RndBz5s2AGI/AAAAAAAABlo/KLPqJMzTzyg/s400/fwlt.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RndB0Js2AHI/AAAAAAAABlw/t3lexZKBeoA/s400/tbsi.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RndB0Js2AII/AAAAAAAABl4/VWU0lgXRRT0/s400/ttek.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RndCEZs2AJI/AAAAAAAABmA/mJAb771WD_w/s400/tsai.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RndCEps2AKI/AAAAAAAABmI/xda23LRdHaQ/s400/crox.png Watch list stocks that could break (or not) anytime - base and break patterns. CROX has a rounded top and looks very weak here.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/18/2007 10:36:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Snooze Fest
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RncpG5s2ACI/AAAAAAAABlI/3YhQHlVeMDY/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RncpHJs2ADI/AAAAAAAABlQ/pH_vpvNrlGg/s400/comp15.pngI'm reducing my risk until we break this NR as I'm finding good setups are few and stocks have a tendency to reverse quickly.
YHOO is trading up on high volume in AH on news that co-founder Jerry Yang has been names CEO.
Econ. Cal. - Housing starts and building permits at 8:30.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ZILA +5.4%... Trading Down: ASHW -13.3%; CWST -7.8%; SHRP -2.3%; OMN -1.9%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: EPIX +18.5% (Receives FDA response to Vasovist appeal; FDA indicated that further clinical trials may not be necessary to gain approval); YHOO +4.9% (Co-Founder Jerry Yang named Chief Executive Officer); MGRM +3.8% (Expands Coverage of Baseline HIV Resistance Testing); NMTI +3.6% (BioSTAR receives Canadian regulatory approval); TWGP +3.9% (provides update on status of acquisition); AACC +3.0%; (declares special one-time cash dividend of $2.45 per share); ARP 1.9% (SAC Capital Advisors discloses 5.1% stake in SC 13G); DG +1.0% (provides update on status of acquisition); WAVE +1.0 (to acquire wireless broadband spectrum in Austria, Slovakia, and Croatia); ICE +0.90% (announces agreement to acquire exclusive license for Russell Index Futures contracts)... Trading Down: MCHP -7.1% (lowers Q1 revs guidance; guides Q1 EPS); GNTA -3.3% (to request review of FDA action for Genasense NDA in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia); ANET -1.2% (announces decision not to proceed with previously announced offer to acquire payment services Interactive Gateway); RIO -1.2% (plans to offer two series of mandatorily convertible notes).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/18/2007 08:49:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMG)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnbo5ps1__I/AAAAAAAABkw/SINqzry-Uqw/s400/cmg.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnbo55s2AAI/AAAAAAAABk4/q2UjEBmR2Lw/s400/RVBD.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rnbo6Js2ABI/AAAAAAAABlA/F7Fe6qAqtnY/s400/sndk.png
Today's session was very choppy so I traded half share size. The theme of the day was book your profits quickly or else you might find yourself giving most of it back. CMG (15 min.) as planned. RVBD (5 min.) and SNDK (5 min.) for small gains. THE did not set up a short but it looks weak so keep it on the watch list for tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/18/2007 04:13:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout
Watch List - CMG, CYTC, CMED, CVTX, AAPL, THE
CMG - Base and Break above Thursday/Friday Highs
CYTC - Gapped up on high volume in mid-May and looks ready to resume the uptrend on a narrow B&B pattern above $42.30.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnZ46ps1_7I/AAAAAAAABkQ/LtNMHch7Ha4/s400/cytc.png
CMED - Gapping up on earnings - high pre-market volume.
CVTX - B&B - Gapping up on a Screamer (AKA Cramer) call.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnZ6AZs1_8I/AAAAAAAABkY/X1EpoWvjugg/s400/cvtx.png SNDK - Breaking out of a multi-month base
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnZ7bJs1_9I/AAAAAAAABkg/D7KXcxNnzT8/s400/sndk1.png AAPL - Very active in pre-market - iPhone delivers up to 8 hours of talk time.
THE - Looks ready to correct - see 15 min. chart for PP.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnZ8aps1_-I/AAAAAAAABko/oS34UAoRoqI/s400/the.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/18/2007 07:54:00 AM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Watchlist
Friday, June 15, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - F5 Networks, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FFIV)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnNYs5s1_5I/AAAAAAAABkA/KnjQHJo2rL8/s400/ffiv1.png Daily FFIV
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnNYs5s1_6I/AAAAAAAABkI/csTsaf_Yg_I/s400/FFIV.png5 Min. FFIVFFIV is one of my watch list stocks. As you can see from the daily timeframe I was watching it because it was setting up a nice base & break pattern. Today it gapped up with the market on high volume. On the 5 minute timeframe, it retraced 38% of the OR and carved out a NR7 stick. I entered a dummy long above the NR7 as price moved to retest the ORH. I locked in some profit at the 25% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH, and exit the rest just under the 38% level.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/15/2007 11:25:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Trader-X
As I said in the past, Trader-X owns the gapper trade and is revered by all his readers, including myself. He has decided to hang up the blog after many years of teaching and mentoring. His genius was in developing a gap trading methodology that included only high quality setups and articulating precise trading rules. I will miss his trading insights and clever takes on politics and pop culture.
I encourage everyone to check out the Trader-X archives.
Thank-you Trader-X and all the best!
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Posted by Jamie at 6/15/2007 10:18:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Trader-X
Pre-Market - Friday June 15th
Futures indicate another higher open for the mkt following encouraging inflation data. While May CPI rose 0.7% (consensus 0.6%), the more closely-watched core rate rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.2%). That pushed the yr/yr rate down to 2.2%, which is closer to the Fed's "comfort zone". In addition, the June NY Empire State Index rose to a surprisingly strong 25.8 (consensus 12.0) from 8.0 in May. Dow futures are currently +71; Nasdaq futures are currently +13; S&P futures are currently +8.6.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: FRE at Friedman Billings, NFLX at Soleil, TRMP at Morgan Joseph, IMA at Cowen; Initiations: DTV at Stifel Nicolaus (Buy), DISH at Stifel Nicolaus (Hold)... On the Earnings calendar, no cos are confirmed to report after the close... On the Economic calendar, preliminary Jun Michigan Sentiment (consensus 88.0) will be released at 10:00ET.
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: BBW -12.2%, WGO -4.1%, ADBE -0.8%... Other news: HOKU -3.2% (profit taking following yesterday's ~47% move higher), CAL -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at tier-1 firm).
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SWHC +6.6%... Other news: EPCT +28.0% (new research shows broad efficacy of EpiCept's Azixa against multiple tumor types and in drug resistant cell line), AXTI +8.1% (initiated with a Buy at First Albany), ACH +7.2% (continued momentum following yesterday's ~9% gain), NMX +6.9% (exploring a sale to NYSE, CME, people say - Bloomberg.com), EXPE + (pre-mkt strength attributed to takeover chatter), HANS +4.9% (upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), WOS +2.6% (co was the focus of takeover speculation in European trading - Bloomberg.com), INTC +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - Bloomberg.com), ASML +1.9% (tgt raised over seas at Rabo Securities following restructuring), ICE +1.2% (up in sympathy with peer NMX).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 6/15/2007 08:53:00 AM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, June 14, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Regain the Trendline
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnHl8Zs1_3I/AAAAAAAABjw/EiSlzxPQEAE/s400/comp.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnHl8ps1_4I/AAAAAAAABj4/nwnCdtLlpfQ/s400/comp15.pngA gap open and bullish morning rally followed by a NR snooze fest in the afternoon as many big names starting trading close to strike prices ahead of OPX and the all important CPI tomorrow.
Economic calendar: CPI 8:30; Industrial production and Capacity at 9:15; and Michigan Sentiment at 10:00.
CROX will be trading ex-split (2 for1) tomorrow morning.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SWHC +6.2%; CMRO +1.3%... Trading Down: CATS -9.2%; DRL -5.0%; TMRK -3.5%; ADBE -0.93%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: SVLF +7.7% (raises Y07 guidance); FDRY +2.1% (announced that it has completed and filed with the SEC its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006); WWVY +1.0% (announces director resignation); CLF +0.92 (announces acquisition of PinnOak Resources for approx $600 mln; transaction will have minimal earnings impact to Cliffs in 2007)... Trading Down: BBW -12.3% (lowers Q2 and 2007 EPS guidance); MEG -2.7% (sees Q2 EPS below consensus; reports May 2007 revenues); CBLI -1.7% (files SB-2 offering 9.3 mln shares); LSCC -1.2% (reaffirms that it expects Q2 revenue to be 0% to 4% higher than Q1 of 2007); HMA -1.2% (names Kelly E. Curry as Chief Operating Officer); WFII -1.0% (receives extension from NASDAQ).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/14/2007 09:04:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnGlmJs1_1I/AAAAAAAABjg/784ZLkI2E28/s400/adsk2.png Daily ADSK
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnGgyZs1_0I/AAAAAAAABjY/P9JgGfzlNSc/s400/adsk1.png15 Min. ADSK
An analyst downgrade put ADSK on the defensive with a gap down after a four day momo move. It struggled to recapture Tuesday's pivot high, but failed, setting up a nice dummy short in close proximity to the downsloping 5 period ema. I wish all my shorts were this easy. I took a partial after a 1 pt. gain. I didn't use Fibonacci because my target was the 20 MA from the daily timeframe $44.67. It tagged it to the penny, but I didn't want to make the same mistake as I did with AAPL yesterday. Shoulda, coulda, stuck with my intuition.
Interestingly enough, the 20 DMA ($44.67) is a perfect match with the 62% Fibonacci extension. I guess that's why Trader-X calls it magic!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnGmIZs1_2I/AAAAAAAABjo/VeswMo6mZvU/s400/adsk3.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/14/2007 04:05:00 PM 17 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper
Wednesday, June 13, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Inverted Hammer Confirmed
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnCdoZs1_yI/AAAAAAAABjI/9yI5VwfpEmY/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnCdops1_zI/AAAAAAAABjQ/lljlPaG482o/s400/comp15.pngWe gapped up on retail sales and a pause on the 10 yr. bond rates and rallied on the Fed Beige book release which emphasized higher manufacturing activity. Tomorrow might paint a different picture as PPI data will be released at 8:30 along with Initial Claims. Interestingly, the DOW posted its biggest one day gain since July 2006.
Yesterday's inverted hammer confirmed bullish today on slightly higher volume.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: CASY +5.7%... Trading Down: CPST -12.5%; SEH -3.8%; CSC -2.7%; TTPY -2.5%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: HOKU +72.8% (HOKU and Suntech sign $678 mln polysilicon supply contract); LLL +1.3% (wins joint cargo aircraft program; contract worth approx $2.04 bln)... Trading Down: SCSS -6.8% (lowers Y07 guidance); ICON -3.6% (announces plan to offer $250 mln convertible senior subordinated notes); SNY -1.8% (Need more data on Zimulti risks, U.S FDA panel says- Bloomberg); SNY -1.4% (FDA advisory committee did not recommend approval of Rimonabant (ZIMULTI) for use in obese and overweight patients with associated risks factors); FBN -1.0% (issues upside Q2 guidance); NRGN -1.0% (insomnia compound data for two studies presented at Associated Professional Sleep Societies Annual Meeting); WPI -0.7 (receives FDA final approval for Generic Wellbutrin XL 300 Mg).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/13/2007 09:43:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Wednesday, June 13, 2007Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnB04ps1_wI/AAAAAAAABi4/c-wXEtIaitM/s400/aapl.png AAPL gapped up slightly on the open and immediately started fading. It tried to rally up to its 20 period ema, but failed to close above it. The third and fourth 15 minute bars traded at the base support line and setup a nice short. My target was the 20 day EMA from the daily timeframe which was tracking at $116.70. I covered my full position as price approached my number because it was already showing signs of capitulation as can be seen from the volume spikes. Unfortunately, I outsmarted myself and left too much money on the table. Should have taken a partial like I usually do.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnB04ps1_xI/AAAAAAAABjA/p1ZtkkhYDB8/s400/crox1.png
CROX gapped up and made a lame attempt to break resistance yet again, but failed. It carved out an inverted base and setup a nice short at the cusp of a bearish 5/20 ema crossover. I placed a sell stop order two pennies under the base. Once the base broke it it fell very nicely through the first PP and I took a partial as price approached the second PP. I was stopped out on the balance.
CROX has printed a red hanging man on the daily which hopefully will be confirmed tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/13/2007 06:50:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, June 12, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Rising 10 Yr. Bond Rates Spook Equities
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm9GEZs1_uI/AAAAAAAABio/AgecJ8ksvNM/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm9GEps1_vI/AAAAAAAABiw/z5MKw2lEco0/s400/comp15.pngThe NASDAQ set up a nice shorting opportunity after tagging the upper PP and carving out a bearish evening star. The ensuing sell off was quick and steep, taking out the morning lows.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SAPE +5.2%; RENT +5.1%; EGR +4.1%; MEAS +3.2%; FNSR +1.4%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: BRNC +5.3% (announces monthly operating release); WCI +3.6% (to adjourn annual meeting until August 30, 2007 to allow sale process to continue); NBIX +3.4% (announces resubmission of new drug application for Indiplon capsules); ZOLT +2.0% (announces long term fiber supply contract); CAMD +1.0% (form 10-K posts slightly better financial results than previously reported Q4 and FY07)... Trading Down: SHLM -8.4% (lowers net income guidance for FY07).
Economic calendar: Import/Export prices and Retail Sales at 8:30; Bus. Inventories at 10:00; Crude at 10:30.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/12/2007 09:07:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMG)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm8Akps1_rI/AAAAAAAABiQ/r69fs7KN6yU/s400/cmg1.png My CMG alert sounded as price crossed $84.00 (yesterday's low). I waited for a low risk dummy entry to present itself. Price consolidated sideways and then carved out a confirmed hanging man, so I entered short. I locked in a partial after 1 pt. and was stopped out when price started to rally towards the 20 EMA.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm8Ak5s1_sI/AAAAAAAABiY/3hwRxZVUJkQ/s400/AMZN1.png My AMZN short setup was a little disappointing. I went short as the second bar took out the real body of the first. I took a partial after 1 pt. and was stopped out on the balance. The one thing that was nagging me about AMZN was the bearish island. There is a 10 cent of empty space between the pivot low from last week and today's high. I keep thinking that AMZN will try to fill that gap before going lower. Maybe I'm just a stickler for details.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm8Ak5s1_tI/AAAAAAAABig/ca-NnpvCecQ/s400/cal.png I was happy that this short on CAL took out the morning low, generating a nice return.
Overall, a choppy session. CROX looks like it may be setting up for a little correction.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/12/2007 04:20:00 PM 18 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper
Trader Mike Shares his Daytrading Techniques
TraderInterviews.com discuss daytrading strategies and techniques with Trader Mike, one of the best known trader/bloggers on the planet.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/12/2007 12:53:00 AM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Trading
Monday, June 11, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Merger Monday Letdown
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm4FV5s1_oI/AAAAAAAABh4/wVl0SBlQ_FQ/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm4FWJs1_pI/AAAAAAAABiA/wiwF-8DMAsU/s400/comp15.pngThere wasn't much happening on the merger front so the usual Monday catalysts were absent resulting in a lacklustre session on much reduced volume. Most of my trading today was focused on intraday pivot points with small moves within narrow ranges except, of course for AAPL.
I won't over analyze today's session except to say that after Thursday's fall and Friday's strong rebound, it is normal to have some sideways action. I'm watching to see if we can manage to hold the next lower PP on the 15 chart above and then bounce from there.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: JMBA +8.3; CNLG +5.5%; TTWO +1.5%... Trading Down: SORC -1.6%; LLUB -1.2%; XIDE -1.2%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: ADAT +7.9% (says Pacific Pulmonary Services to adopt it's Inscrybe healthcare platform); AOI +4.7% (announces restatement of first three quarters of FY07); COLY +1.1% (announced it has entered into an agreement with 3M to acquire the majority of their therapeutic Toll-like receptor cancer programs)... Trading Down: ACLI -13.8% (lowers guidance for FY07; announces $200 mln buyback); TXN -2.1% (narrows EPS & revenue guidance range for Q2); NRGN -1.5% (proprietary insomnia compound data presented at Associated Professional Sleep Societies annual meeting); MCGC -1.1% (sells Superior Publishing for $65 mln).
Watch List: AMZN - I'm looking for a shorting opp as AMZN sets up to test gap support between $70.88 and $70.41. The next major PP support is $67.70. Minor support at $70 and $69.00
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm4NWZs1_qI/AAAAAAAABiI/Hdbsml15p-k/s400/AMZN1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/11/2007 10:25:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ, Watchlist
Wednesday, June 13, 2007Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnB04ps1_wI/AAAAAAAABi4/c-wXEtIaitM/s400/aapl.png AAPL gapped up slightly on the open and immediately started fading. It tried to rally up to its 20 period ema, but failed to close above it. The third and fourth 15 minute bars traded at the base support line and setup a nice short. My target was the 20 day EMA from the daily timeframe which was tracking at $116.70. I covered my full position as price approached my number because it was already showing signs of capitulation as can be seen from the volume spikes. Unfortunately, I outsmarted myself and left too much money on the table. Should have taken a partial like I usually do.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RnB04ps1_xI/AAAAAAAABjA/p1ZtkkhYDB8/s400/crox1.png
CROX gapped up and made a lame attempt to break resistance yet again, but failed. It carved out an inverted base and setup a nice short at the cusp of a bearish 5/20 ema crossover. I placed a sell stop order two pennies under the base. Once the base broke it it fell very nicely through the first PP and I took a partial as price approached the second PP. I was stopped out on the balance.
CROX has printed a red hanging man on the daily which hopefully will be confirmed tomorrow.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/13/2007 06:50:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, June 12, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Rising 10 Yr. Bond Rates Spook Equities
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm9GEZs1_uI/AAAAAAAABio/AgecJ8ksvNM/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm9GEps1_vI/AAAAAAAABiw/z5MKw2lEco0/s400/comp15.pngThe NASDAQ set up a nice shorting opportunity after tagging the upper PP and carving out a bearish evening star. The ensuing sell off was quick and steep, taking out the morning lows.
Companies moving in after hours-8.4% (lowers net income guidance for FY07).
Economic calendar: Import/Export prices and Retail Sales at 8:30; Bus. Inventories at 10:00; Crude at 10:30.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/12/2007 09:07:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMG)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm8Akps1_rI/AAAAAAAABiQ/r69fs7KN6yU/s400/cmg1.png My CMG alert sounded as price crossed $84.00 (yesterday's low). I waited for a low risk dummy entry to present itself. Price consolidated sideways and then carved out a confirmed hanging man, so I entered short. I locked in a partial after 1 pt. and was stopped out when price started to rally towards the 20 EMA.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm8Ak5s1_sI/AAAAAAAABiY/3hwRxZVUJkQ/s400/AMZN1.png My AMZN short setup was a little disappointing. I went short as the second bar took out the real body of the first. I took a partial after 1 pt. and was stopped out on the balance. The one thing that was nagging me about AMZN was the bearish island. There is a 10 cent of empty space between the pivot low from last week and today's high. I keep thinking that AMZN will try to fill that gap before going lower. Maybe I'm just a stickler for details.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm8Ak5s1_tI/AAAAAAAABig/ca-NnpvCecQ/s400/cal.png I was happy that this short on CAL took out the morning low, generating a nice return.
Overall, a
Labels:
Monday, June 11, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Merger Monday Letdown
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm4FV5s1_oI/AAAAAAAABh4/wVl0SBlQ_FQ/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm4FWJs1_pI/AAAAAAAABiA/wiwF-8DMAsU/s400/comp15.pngThere wasn't much happening on the merger front so the usual Monday catalysts were absent resulting in a lacklustre session on much reduced volume. Most of my trading today was focused on intraday pivot points with small moves within narrow ranges except, of course for AAPL.
I won't over analyze today's session except to say that after Thursday's fall and Friday's strong rebound, it is normal to have some sideways action. I'm watching to see if we can manage to hold the next lower PP on the 15 chart above and then bounce from there.
Watch List: AMZN - I'm looking for a shorting opp as AMZN sets up to test gap support between $70.88 and $70.41. The next major PP support is $67.70. Minor support at $70 and $69.00
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm4NWZs1_qI/AAAAAAAABiI/Hdbsml15p-k/s400/AMZN1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/11/2007 10:25:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ, Watchlist
Dummy Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rm27h5s1_nI/AAAAAAAABhw/JJL6jMhDBlA/s400/aapl.png I took a long entry on AAPL on a low risk, narrow, base break midday. It started out very well but reversed abruptly. As price fell below $125.50 volume started to pick up, so I quickly tightened the stop to $125.00 and was taken out. I perused Briefing.com to find a reason for the reversal but everything seemed on the up and up. However, the lack of any new products or big announcements at WWDC seemed to be putting a negative bias on the stock. I waited for the next 15 minute bar to complete itself and decided to short AAPL. I only took a small position, because knowing AAPL, they could be saving the best for last as the presentation was ongoing.
Guess not, the stock continued lower, slowly at first, but on increasing volume. I took a partial as price swooned into my third level PP. After a brief consolidation, it continued down to my fourth PP where I covered the balance and went long. The late day long was a waste of time as AAPL barely bounced into the close.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/11/2007 05:15:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NRB, Pivot Point, Volume
Pre-Market - Monday June 11th
Futures indicate a flat open for the mkt. Strength in the Chinese and European mkts has helped futures, but is offset from today's lack of M&A activity, per usual for a Monday, and more weakness in the bond mkt. However, there is little conviction on the part of buyers as this week's deluge of economic data, from retail sales to updates on inflation, won't kick off in earnest until Wednesday.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: JNJ at Credit Suisse; Downgrades: BOT at Credit Suisse, NFLX at JP Morgan, UAUA at Calyon, PENN at Morgan Joseph; Initiations: NMX at Credit Suisse (Neutral), ICE at Credit Suisse (Outperform)... On the Earnings calendar: CYBX, RVI, SORC and TTWO are confirmed to report after the close... The Economic calendar is empty today.
Gapping down on weak guidance: NUE -5.4%... Steel names ticking lower on combination of NUE guidance and DJ report that ThyssenKrupp denied it was in talks with Severstal, US Steel: X-4.8%, STLD -4.1%, AKS -2.9%, CMC -2.4%, GNA -1.9%... Other news: MKTX -5.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), PENN -4.7% (table games in Charles Town rejected in weekend vote; several brokers are commenting on news, with stock downgraded at Morgan Joseph), HOG -2.8% (tgt cut to $67 from $69 at UBS), E -1.4% (said its crude-oil production in Nigeria is "near normal" after having been curbed by militant attacks).
Gapping Up on strong earnings/guidance: CRED +8.9%, JOSB +3.6%... M&A: BYBI +23.6% (to be acquired by private equity for $6.50 per share), CUP +8.9% (announces friendly C$6.60/share cash offer by Aluminum of China)... Other news: MDVN +32.9% (announces Dimebon maintains statistically significant benefit on all five efficacy endpoints in Alzheimer's disease), NRMX +10.4% (presents update on Alzhemed), INFN +7.3% (continued momentum following last week's IPO), GERN +6.1% (says research indicates its embryonic stem cell-based therapeutic for spinal cord injury evades direct attack by the human immune system), ADLR +5.3% (co and GSK provide update on Alvimopan program, say complete response to the POI Approvable Letter now targeted for 3Q07), NGSX +4.7% (initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna), ILMN +4.7% (announces launch of iControlDB), SNSS +4.2% (reports positive data from studies of two anti-cancer agents), SINA +3.8% (announces strategic partnership with Google in the areas of search, advertisement and news).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 6/11/2007 08:40:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, June 10, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmy2lZs1_kI/AAAAAAAABhY/-Q-UKdSfgdA/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmy2lps1_lI/AAAAAAAABhg/iPXEqvlJVuY/s400/COMP+Weekly.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmy2lps1_mI/AAAAAAAABho/7y_0Y_WB8RE/s400/comp15.png
As anticipated, the 50 DMA provided support and semiconductors paced the way on the heels of NSM's bullish quarter and stock repurchase program. Add this stock to the watchlist. It should be an interesting week as bulls and bears battle for control.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/10/2007 10:35:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Compiling the Watch List
My primary source for compiling the active watch list are stocks that gap up (down) on very high volume, usually be not exclusive, to earnings. These high volume gappers generate momentum and can spawn many follow up trades after consolidating the original gap.
My current watch list includes names such as AAPL, AMZN, CREE, CROX, CWTR, BIDU, CMG, ESRX, FWLT, JCOM, NTRI, RVBD, THE, VRGY, WINN on the gap up side and AMGN, DRIV, NTAP, GROW, SMSI on the gap down side. Since we have been in a bull market for quite some time, many of the gap downs turn into bullish plays shortly after gapping down (eg. AMGN, GROW).
A stock that gaps up or down on 3-4 times average daily volume can be a momentum play for many weeks and months to come. Some of the weaker sectors, however, will not result in as many trades. The semis, for example, have not been able to extend their gap momentum beyond a few days or weeks at most - VSEA, LLTC.
Here is an example using CMG which I traded as a gapper on the day it gapped up and have since traded two more times on NR base breaks as highlighted on the daily chart below. If CMG recaptures its PP at $85.00 it could setup another long daytrade. A break of $82.50 on weakness could setup a short, depending on market conditions.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmyddZs1_jI/AAAAAAAABhQ/kNbd9jjoZXU/s400/CMG2.png
I look at the daily and 15 minute timeframes of all my watch list stocks every night and set alerts as required if they are well positioned to move.
The rest of my watch list comes from frequent EOD scanning. For long candidates, I look for stocks trading above the 10, 50 and 200 DMAs combined. From a 4 month view, I look for stocks that are basing and ready to break, ideally from NR bars. I'm not interested in perusing lists of more than 100 stocks each for the NASDAQ and the NYSE, so I add filters for volume and momentum (ADX) to reduce the size of the lists as required.
During pre-market, I monitor the watchlist stocks for movement in the direction of the base and break pattern and I look for new gappers trading on heavy pre-market volume.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/10/2007 08:04:00 PM 6 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Gapper, NRB, Watchlist
Thursday, June 07, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmiqJZs1_fI/AAAAAAAABgw/pDGNWzBnotw/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmiqJps1_gI/AAAAAAAABg4/8wB2LCe4Xk0/s400/namo.pngThe bears owned the session from start to finish except for a minor attempt at a bounce between 2 and 3 p.m. EST. It looks like the biggest three day decline since March. On the NYSE declining issues outnumbered advancers by a whopping 10.3 to 1. The NASDAQ was not nearly as severe with a ratio of 3.5:1.00. Extreme readings usually foreshadow market turns, however, the NAZ reading does not qualify as extreme.
Market Internals:
The Dow decreased 1.48% closing at 13267, the Nasdaq was down 1.77% to finish at 2541, and the S&P was down 1.76% to finish at 1491. Leading sectors included: Photo Products +0.77%, Healthcare Services +0.46%, Drug Retail +0.15%, Health Care Suppliers +0.04%, Airport Services +n/a. Lagging sectors included: Industrial REITS -4.5%, Special Consumer Services -4.3%, Homebuilding -4.2%, Construction and Engineering --3.9%, Office REITS -3.8%. Today's movement came from lower than avg volume on the NYSE and higher than avg on the Nasdaq (NYSE 1480, vs. 1513 avg, Nasdaq 2444, vs. 2022 avg), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 271/3013, Nasdaq 668/2370) with new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 40/104; Nasdaq 80/86).
In addition to higher volume, we closed on the lows of the session (thanks to Pimco's Bill Gross late day bearish comments). The technical damage is a broken trendline, however, we should get some sort of technical bounce at the 50 DMA level. I would expect that we will retest the trendline from the underside in the very near term.
The McClellan oscillator is approaching oversold, however, here again extreme readings seem to occur more frequently in the oversold zone than the overbought as depicted in the chart above .
Trade Balance tomorrow at 8:30
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: NSM +10.0%; CAE +6.4%; HRLY +3.4%; GENT +1.1%; NMGC +1.0%... Trading Down: QSII -1.5%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: YMI +5.6% (Cleared to Initiate Clinical trial of Nimotuzumab in Children with inoperable recurrent Brain Cancer); QCOM +1.7% (Broadcom wins bid to block mobile phones with Qualcomm chips, order doesn't affect types of phone imported before June 7th- Bloomberg); ACTL +1.3% (reaffirms Q2 revs of flat to plus of minus 2%; co's stock options review is still ongoing); BRCM +1.3% (wins ITC order barring certain Qualcomm baseband chips and cellular phones from importation into the U.S.); UNH +1.3% (and Adventist Midwest Health reach new multi-year agreement); BRS +1.2% (announces pricing of 7 1/2% $300 mln senior notes due 2017); LNC +1.1% (to explore strategic options for media business)... Trading Down: OPWV -4.1% (Harbinger clarifies tender offer price and announces an extension of its tender offer for Openwave).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/07/2007 08:58:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
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Thursday, June 07, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Celgene Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CELG)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmh2aJs1_cI/AAAAAAAABgY/wNvujO0LW9E/s400/celg.png The first chart is a daily view of CELG. As you can see CELG has been weak since the tail end of May. Tuesday it carved out a hanging man which was confirmed yesterday. I noticed in the pre-market that it was gapping down and trading below its 50 DMA, so it was top of my shorting watch list.
The chart below shows my entry and exits. I took a low risk dummy short on a break of the second bar low with a stop above the ORH. I locked in some profit after a 1 pt. gain and covered the balance into the close.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmh2aZs1_dI/AAAAAAAABgg/UmqDgijDfZo/s400/celg1.png AMLN set up another dummy short today. Again, I locked in some profit after a dollar move as this stock has weak. This time I was stopped out on the balance.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmh2aZs1_eI/AAAAAAAABgo/ZBsA4SIw7XI/s400/amln2.png Today was a very good day for shorting, but I did manage to get another long entry on CROX this morning.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/07/2007 04:06:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Hanging_Man
Pre-Market - Thursday June 7th
Futures indicate a lower open for the mkt as the yield on the 10-year note eclipsed the psychological 5% level overnight for the first time since last Aug. As expected, the Bank of England left its benchmark rate unchanged today at 5.50%; however, New Zealand unexpectedly raising rates. That, coupled with yesterday's ECB rate rise and well-known Fed journalist John Berry's commentary that no easing is likely for a long time have put the yield up over the key technical level. Meanwhile, weekly Initial Claims fell 1K to 309K (consensus 312K). That's the lowest level in nearly a month and still indicative of tight labor conditions, hardly the evidence bond traders want to see since high resource utilization remains such a concern for the Fed.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: FNM at Friedman Billings, RDWR at CIBC, GD at Lehman; Downgrades: PG at Lehman, IMCL at Morgan Stanley... On the Earnings calendar: CAE, HRLY, NSM, QSII and ZQK are confirmed to report after the close... On the Economic calendar, as mentioned above Apr Wholesale Inventories (consensus 0.3%) will be released at 10:00ET while Apr Consumer Confidence (consensus $6.0 bln) will be released at 15:00ET.
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: SEAC -9.4%, SHFL -6.0%, CMTL -5.0%, SIX -2.6% (provided mid-quarter update)... Other news: YANB -4.2% (to be acquired by PNC for $35.00 per share -- below last night's 35.77 closing price), MNST -2.4% (announces new CFO), DNDN -2.2% (still checking for news), CMG -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James).
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: AHO +3.8%, ADCT +3.2%... Following same store sales reports: JOSB +9.3%, SKS +5.0%... Other news: BAMM +10.6% (announces $3.00 special one-time dividend), HGSI +7.2% (announces positive final results Of Phase 2b trial of Albuferon), KRY +3.9% (Chavez still deciding what to do with the Sidor steel conglomerate and the Las Cristinas gold mine), BMET +3.2% (private equity consortium increases offer for BMET to $46.00 per share in cash), AAPL +1.2%, RIMM +1.0% (Cramer named AAPL, GOOG, RIMM and AMZN as his top four tech picks).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 6/07/2007 08:44:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, June 06, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Open and Close
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmd0JJs1_aI/AAAAAAAABgI/QTQI-5zP_dA/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rmd0JZs1_bI/AAAAAAAABgQ/RlP30LqZ6Co/s400/comp15.pngThe NASDAQ lost 24 points, almost half of which came off the open. The bears were in control of the open and the close, with bulls making a feeble attempt at defending the pivot point midday. So far we have an orderly pullback underway, but that could change if interest rates concerns take center stage.
Economic calendar: Initial Claims at 8:30; Wholesale Inv. at 10:00; and Consumer Credit at 3:00 EST.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: DCP +6.8%; DSW +4.5%; ADCT +3.4; MATK +2.6%... Trading Down: SEAC -10.4%; GOT -7.8%; SAI -6.3%; SHFL -5.9%; GEF -5.3%; GIII -4.4%; CMTL -3.5%...
Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: BAMM +7.1% (announces $3.00 special one-time dividend); SGMO +5.6% (presents first ZFP therapeutic data demonstrating in vivo protection against HIV); ASPV +4.5% (announces Fast-Track designation granted by the FDA for CellCept in lupus nephritis); FPL +2.4% (announces sale of $400 mln of Series C Junior Subordinated Debentures guaranteed by FPL Group); GT +2.3% (Steelworkers Union faces prosecution for illegal retaliatory strike fines and intimidation of Goodyear employees); BGFV +2.3% (will replace Kronos (KRON) in the S&P SmallCap 600); ICUI +2.1% (receives FDA 510(K) clearance for its Genie closed vial access device); CVS +1.5% (wins 3-Year Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program contract renewal for retail pharmacy and clinical services); NUHC +0.93% (acquires German-based components distributor Dacom-Sud Electronic Vertriebs)... Trading Down: ETFC -6.8% (announced the launch of E*TRADE in Norway with"agressive pricing"); SIX -4.4% (reports total YTD revs are up 5% YoY to ~$12.0 mln); WRSP -3.5% (Aletheia Research & Mgmt discloses 27.93% stake in SC 13D; DEF 14A from 4/30 listed Aletheia as 17% Holder); TUTR -2.6% (says Alvin ISD chooses PLATO Learning for district-wide credit recovery); MNST -2.5% (announces new CFO); SCA -2.1% (announces pricing of secondary public offering at $31 per share); FRNT -1.6% (reports preliminary traffic for May 2007); ABR -1.5% (announces offering of common stock of approx 2.7 mln shares); ARO -1.3% (May same store sales increase 1.9%); TRBR -1.3% (announces receipt of NASDAQ letter regarding compliance with NASDAQ's independent director requirement); MTSC -1.0% (names Laura Hamilton President and Chief Operating Officer); CIEN -0.93% (sells additional $50 mln in convertible senior notes to exercise of underwriter's over-allotment option).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/06/2007 10:53:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Trade of the Day - International Business Machines Corp. (Public, NYSE:IBM)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmdIEJs1_YI/AAAAAAAABf4/IY5MrKt9Ohg/s400/ibm.pngThe first chart is the daily and the second is the 5 minute timeframe. IBM was a watch list stock which was showing signs of fatigued. At the end of May it carved out a lower high. This week we had a hanging man on Monday which was confirmed yesterday. I set an alert for IBM on a break of the blue lines. The one caveat was the proximity of the 20 day EMA (green MA -marked by red support line). That's the problem shorting strong stocks, one never knows which level of support is going to provide a bounce.
My other problem this morning is that all of my alerts went off in unison, so it was a bit of a challenge sorting through all of the setups. IBM was one of my favorites, even though I missed the ideal entry (break of red line), I took a low risk short as price broke $104.50. I took a partial after 1 pt. and tightened the stop to the minor PP marked by the thin blue line. I covered the balance as it appeared the market might end the day with a rally, however, the rally was short lived and we closed on weakness.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmdIEZs1_ZI/AAAAAAAABgA/AyXvbYMfGvc/s400/ibm1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/06/2007 07:32:00 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Hanging_Man, Short
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Minor Pullback
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmY93ps1_WI/AAAAAAAABfo/g_Z4Ps01cAA/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmY935s1_XI/AAAAAAAABfw/DQ3pEw-f8dw/s400/comp15.png The morning weakness tracked slightly higher volume than the afternoon bounce from pivot support. Heavier volume on declines is bearish, however, as usual buyers stepped at short-term support.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: GES +5.4%... Trading Down: COO -5.0%; PTNX -4.1%...
Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: AMTD +9.3% (Jana and Sac Capital suggest SCHW and ETFC as merger partners -- Bloomberg); TAL +6.7% (exploring strategic alternatives, including possible sale); BDE +5.2% (Considers Strategic Alternatives and Updates Drilling Results); VLTR +4.7% (guides Q2 lower, cites process defect at vendor, expects charge); SCMR +2.1% (concludes stock options investigation; certain stock option grants for which the originally recorded measurement dates were in incorrect); FPL +1.9% (disappointed with public service commission ruling denying a clean coal power plant); BCE +1.4% (strategic review process: another consortium enters privatization talks); SIRI +0.70% (Morgan Stanley commits $250 mlm term loan to SIRI)... Trading Down: OXM -2.7% (lowers Q4 guidance, issues downside Q1, Y08 guidance).
Economic Calendar: Productivity Rev. at 8:30 and Crude at 10:30.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/06/2007 12:51:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Tuesday, June 05, 2007Base and Break Trades - Amazon.com Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN), Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmYUDps1_SI/AAAAAAAABfI/gN9SToRSY6c/s400/AMZN1.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmYUD5s1_TI/AAAAAAAABfQ/UHC55iLPZEs/s400/crox.png The first two charts are the daily timeframes for AMZN and CROX respectively. They show that I am looking for narrow base and break patterns of strong stocks that are still running strong after earnings gaps.
The following are the 5 minute timeframes of my entries and exits. I look for a low risk entry points as soon as the stocks break their base.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmYUD5s1_UI/AAAAAAAABfY/Hd3D6adf85U/s400/amzn.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmYUEJs1_VI/AAAAAAAABfg/iz3Zo6KgBZI/s400/crox2.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/05/2007 09:51:00 PM 11 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout
Monday, June 04, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Six Consecutive Higher Closes
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmTFmJs1_PI/AAAAAAAABew/XV669A9lVWI/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmTFmZs1_QI/AAAAAAAABe4/l5L078wrf2E/s400/comp15.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmTFmZs1_RI/AAAAAAAABfA/e48qPymKt8s/s400/namo.pngAs you can see from the 15 minute time frame, today's session was essentially a NR snooze fest. After six consecutive higher closes, I'd like to see a pullback to the trendline.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: MIND +3.49%; EFX +2.43%...... Trading Down: NASI -10.00%; SIGM -1.87%; CMOS -0.87%...
Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: PQ +3.41% (announces completion of operations on its third operated horizontal Woodford Shale well); IART +1.77% (commences private offering of $125 mln convertible notes)... Trading Down: OPWV -13.89% ( Board unanimously rejects Harbinger's unsolicited partial tender offer as inadequate); CIEN -2.61% (announces proposed sale of $450 mln in convertible senior notes); NPSP -2.49% (announces Calcilytics development program in Osteoporosis by GlaxoSmithKline); NOVC -2.28% (Chairman/CEO appears on CNBC, discussing its Asentar drug for prostate cancer); CHZ -2.2% (announces acquisition of Community Bank & Trust Company); TRB -1.36% (resignations of Chandler Trusts Representatives from Board of Directors); PDRT -1.33% (continues to evaluate other replacement options for existing frac pump particle injection system); HXM -0.93% (announces new CEO); XTO -0.81% (announces a 15 mln share common stock offering)
Econ. Calendar - ISM Services at 10:00
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Posted by Jamie at 6/04/2007 10:07:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMLN)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmR-U8tW17I/AAAAAAAABeg/4f4mYHP-U3M/s400/amln.png AMLN gapped down on the open and carved out a WRB with a small lower shadow. Price consolidated sideways in a very narrow range in the lower third of the OR. On the eighth bar, price and the down sloping 5 period EMA converged. The next bar broke the narrow consolidation range and set up a low risk, dummy short on a sell stop order. Shortly thereafter, AMLN started trading sideways again (lunch time doldrums). When it finally, broke below the ORL, price fell nicely into the daily pivot for a partial. Tighten stop to the previous red bar high at the PP as pivots sometimes result in a reversal. After a minor bounce from the daily pivot, it continued its trek lower.
The daily timeframe below shows how I mapped out the daily pivot low. Also notice how the 25% Fibonacci extension lines up perfectly with the daily pivot low.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmR-VMtW18I/AAAAAAAABeo/ENtRtXmzC9E/s400/amln1.png
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Posted by Jamie at 6/04/2007 05:03:00 PM 10 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Pre-Market - Monday June 4th
Futures indicate a lower open for the mkt as the Shanghai Composite in China sold off 8.3% today. Note it also plunged 6.5% last Wednesday, weighing on early sentiment; but was labeled as a contained event as the U.S. mkt not only recovered, but rallied. Per usual for a Monday morning, there is quite a bit of M&A news: FLEX has agreed to buy SLR for $3.6 bln, D is selling most of its E&P unit for $6.5 bln, a private equity firm is acquiring a 25% stake in PALM for $325 mln, LEND disclosed it is going private, QGEN is acquiring DIGE, etc.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: MOT at CIBC, WMT at Wachovia, JP Morgan and HSBC, SIRI, ONXX and PALM at Bear Stearns, NSM at JP Morgan; Downgrades: DB at JP Morgan, CM at RBC, STI at BofA... On the Earnings calendar: BOBE, CMOS, DMND, FCEL and SIGM are the only cos confirmed to report after the close... On the Economic calendar, Apr Factory Orders (consensus 0.6%) will be released at 10:00ET.
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: CRAY -22.6%, KKD 2.3%... Other news: TELK -13.1% (reports Telcyta ASSIST-3 trial results, says assessment of the primary endpoint may have been compromised), CTIC -8.6% (data presented at ASCO provides independent supportive data validating the potential survival benefit of Xyotax), DAL -5.8% (still checking), DNDN -3.1% (announces a $75 mln convertible notes private placement offering).
Gapping up on M&A: DIGE +36.4% (to be acquired by QGEN for 61.25 per share), SLR +15.7% (to be acquired by FLEX for $3.89 per share), LEND +9.2% (to be acquired by Lone Star Funds for $15.10 per share)... ASCO related news: SCLN +14.4% (thymalfasin achieved its primary endpoint in a phase 2 clinical trial), CYCC +19.7% (reported Phase I sapacitabine data, tgt upped to $12 at Needham), ARIA +7.4% (presents positive efficacy data on AP23573), ONXX +6.1% (announced that Nexavar significantly extends overall survival by 44%)... Other news: PALM +10.0% (announces strategic recapitalization with Elevation Partners, upgraded at Bear Stearns), CDNS +8.7% (NYT reports co is in buyout talks), NVT +6.4% (Cramer highlights recent GOOG-for-NVT rumors).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 6/04/2007 08:47:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, June 03, 2007Pivot Points Revisited
In an earlier post entitled Pivot Point Analysis, I discussed the standard methodology for calculating pivot points based on the previous day's High, Low and Close.
The purpose of this post is to update readers on how my pivot point usage has evolved since the earlier post and to answer some reader questions.
Firstly, I no longer calculate pivot points manually as described in last year's post. I 'm now using Fibonacci retracements and extensions to plot the pivot points on my intraday charts.
How to Calculate Fibonacci Pivot Points
A reader asks how to calculate intraday pivot point values. The data required to calculate Fibonacci retracements and extensions for gap ups are the previous day low (PDL), the current opening range high (ORH); for gaps down, we use the previous day high (PDH) and the current day's ORL. I use mainly 15 minute timeframes, so for me the ORH is the high of the first 15 minute bar or candlestick.
Here is an example of a gap down using the chart below of TSL:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmNZoctW13I/AAAAAAAABeA/IsOLYfcRke0/s400/TSL.png The PDH = $48.60 and the ORL =$44.03
In order to calculate the 38.2% Fibonacci extension target, we take the difference of the PDH minus the ORL and multiply the outcome by 38.2% as follows:
$48,60-$44.03=$4.57 *.382 = $1.75
We then take the ORL minus $1.75 to get the value for our 38.2% Fibonacci extension = $42.28.
Finding Key Pivot Points on Longer Timeframes
Another reader asks how to calculate the daily/weekly/monthly pivot high.
Basically, I don't calculate these values, but rather I find them visually from the various timeframes. Here is an example using the weekly timeframe for AMGN as depicted in the chart below.
The blue line is pivot point support at $52.00. Over the last few years, every time price approaches $52.00, it pivots and bounces. PP resistance is $65.00. A pivot point can serve as resistance on the one hand and support later on. Also, a break of PP resistance can, and often results in a momo move to the upside as we can see in the mid 2005 break of PP resistance at $65.00.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmNhkMtW14I/AAAAAAAABeI/yaLk5upoHoQ/s400/amgn.png
Trading from Short-Term Pivot Points
When a stock gaps up or down on very high volume, I save the chart in a folder and look for momentum to follow in the short-term. I map out short-term PPs and set alerts in order to be able to profit from intraday breakouts of narrow base and break patterns. Here is an example that I traded on Friday.
NTAP gapped down on on high volume after earnings disappointed. I plotted my short-term PPs from the daily timeframe (blue lines) and set alerts in Esignal. Friday, the upper PP was tagged on the open, before reversing and testing Thursday's afternoon low. Price tried, but failed to bounce and a low risk short entry was taken. Once the lower PP was taken out, price fell steadily towards its recent lows.
Daily Timeframe EOD Thursday
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmN7dctW15I/AAAAAAAABeQ/5eJ3r-nDfCk/s400/NTAP1.png 15 Minute Timeframe Friday
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RmN7dstW16I/AAAAAAAABeY/OB9sAmQ6CBQ/s400/NTAP2.png
Ideally, I like to have a few potential candidates like this each day. Too many alerts can be counterproductive as many stocks will test PPs on the open and all of the alerts will go off at the same time. So we try to be selective.
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Posted by Jamie at 6/03/2007 08:59:00 PM 15 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
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Thursday, May 31, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Close Above 2600
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rl-DkstW10I/AAAAAAAABdo/kVppcZkflhc/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rl-DkstW11I/AAAAAAAABdw/qlJtReutmZg/s400/namo.png The NASDAQ gapped up and traded in a fairly narrow range on higher volume probably due to some month-end window dressing. Tomorrow we have an abundance of economic data which will be a key driver to the trading session. However, just a feeling and feelings need to be confirmed, but today's session felt choppy and shaky. The daily chart looks like it might be setting up for a bearish island reversal ( AAPL chart as well).
Economic Calendar: Nonfarm payrolls, Unemployment rate, Hourly wages, Avg. work week, Personal income/spending, and Core PCE inflation at 8:30; ISM index and Michigan Sentiment at 10:00.
After Hours Summary: DELL up 5.5% on earnings/outlook
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: DELL +5.5%; JCG +4.3%; PLL +2.4%; WIND +1.3%; HRS +1.2%; ESL +1.1%; OVTI +1.1%... Trading Down: AFCE -6.0%; GAIN -3.2%; NCS -2.2%; ATVI -1.4%; BRCD -1.2%; HOV -1.0%...
Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: ANTP +32.4% (products corporation awarded contract); ISTA +13.1% (announces positive preliminary results from ecabet sodium phase IIb study); DXCM +6.0% (receives FDA approval for its 7-day STS Continuous Glucose Monitoring System)... Trading Down: DDSS -44.5% (receives second approvable letter from FDA for once-daily Tramadol); CRAI -16.8% (prelim Q2 revs below consensus, and EPS below consensus; co lowers FY07 guidance); BLUD -8.3% (sees FY08 $0.92-0.96 vs $1.03 Reuters consensus; sees revs $249-257 mln vs $259.98 mln Reuters consensus; CFO to resign for family reasons); WRE -1.6% (announces public offering of 1.6 mln common shares); FRX -1.4% (Topline results of Phase III study in acute ischemic stroke do not demonstrate difference between Desmoteplase and placebo); CTRN -1.3% (announces offering by stockholders of approx 2 mln shares).
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Posted by Jamie at 5/31/2007 10:24:00 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - Ciena Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CIEN)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rl9d4stW1yI/AAAAAAAABdY/n_375PmZdfk/s400/cien.png CIEN gapped up on strong earnings and challenged its weekly pivot high (blue line) in the OR, but failed to close above it. Price pulled back just above the 32% Fibonacci retracement level and then started to move up again slowly. The 11th stick was NR7 and was sitting on support of the rising 5 period EMA. I decided to scale in as price took out the high of NR7, knowing that the PP resistance could be problematic. Three bars later it was challenged and failed again so I moved my stop to break even. About an hour later, yet another attempt failed. At this point I was getting frustrated. However, I talked myself into holding on because each bar was now hugging the PP. In the last hour price finally closed above the PP and the ORH. Although the trade did not extend to the target 38%, and I did not add to my position on the break of the ORH as I normally would, it did generate a 1 pt. gain. Oddly enough it was satisfying because having missed the first hour and half of the session due to personal business, my expectations for the session were low.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rl9d5MtW1zI/AAAAAAAABdg/aKP3p1uGzc0/s400/cal.png CAL gapped up and tagged its daily pivot high in the OR. After testing the PP for a full hour, price retraced 50% before making a second attempt to break out. After closing above the PP, it carved out a red hanging man. I shorted CAL on confirmation of the hanging man as price fell back below the PP.
Normally, I like to see some basing at resistance before price breaks out. Here CAL, made a vertical move from the 50% retracement level back up to the PP. This type of breakout often results in a failure because the stock is exhausted by the time it reaches the key technical level.
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Posted by Jamie at 5/31/2007 07:26:00 PM 18 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7, Pivot Point
Wednesday, May 30, 2007After Hours Summary
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SMTC +10.4%; PSS +6.7%; CHS +5.0%; JRJC +4.4%; NOVL +2.6%... Trading Down: OPTM -9.2%; LGF -8.5%; JAS -2.6%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: ENCY +26.7% (Canadian Health authority approves THELIN (Sitaxsentan Sodium) for pulmonary arterial hypertension); OCCX +7.9% (TLCV announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell all of its shares of OCCX common stock to private equity group); CEN +4.1% (enters into merger agreement with Thomas H. Lee Partners and Fidelity National Financial; Ceridian shareholders to receive $36.00 per share); ADPT +1.5% (Steel Partners II deivers letter to Adaptec stating concerns over co direction); EMKR +1.1% (Kopp Investment Advisors discloses 6.4% stake in SC 13D filing)... Trading Down: TAM -2.9% (CAIXA and TAM launch partnership); VCLK -2.4% (says Tom Vadnais appointed Chief Executive Officer, succeeding James Zarley); LYO -1.4% (to sell $510 mln of 6.875% senior unsecured notes); CSC -1.0% (announces delay in filing 2007 Form 10-K).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
N.B. - By exception, there will be no pre-market post tomorrow morning.
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Posted by Jamie at 5/30/2007 09:00:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Multi-Yr Closing High
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rl4AOstW1wI/AAAAAAAABdI/RXYoVeVzh0o/s400/comp.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rl4AO8tW1xI/AAAAAAAABdQ/Rq94-OG6dq8/s400/comp15.pngWe can't complain about a lack of volatility on a day like today. First the gap down on Chinese stock market worries and then the FOMC minutes in the afternoon propelling the NASDAQ to a multi-year closing high. Volume was up but still below average.
Economic calendar: Prel. GDP and Chain Deflator, Initial Claims at 8:30; Chicago PMI at 9:45; and Construction spending at 10:00
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Posted by Jamie at 5/30/2007 06:43:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Dummy Trade of the Day - True Religion Apparel, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:TRLG)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rl3488tW1vI/AAAAAAAABdA/6lmdO4T7oLo/s400/trlg.png TRLG gapped up on the open and carved out a hammer with a long lower shadow. Price ascended towards its daily pivot high from May 23rd and consolidated just below it. The 6th 15 minute bar was NR7 (price and volume contraction). I took a low risk, dummy long entry on the next bar as it broke above the PP. Because the gap was small, I extended my Fibonacci lines from yesterday's low to the pivot point (blue line). I took a partial as price reversed after tagging the 75% extension and I closed my position ahead of the FOMC minutes.
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Posted by Jamie at 5/30/2007 05:41:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
Pre-Market - Wednesday May 30th
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: SOLF -20.5%, IBKR -5.5%, BGP -5.6%, JOYG -4.4%, FRO -3.0%... China-related stocks gapping down after 6.8% overnight sell-off in China: SNDA -5.1%, CAF -4.6%, KONG -4.4%, TSL -4.3%, XFML -4.0%, SOHU -3.9%, EFUT -3.8%, FFHL -3.7%, FMCN -3.6%, GCH -3.4%, SINA -2.2%, BIDU -1.7%, CTRP -1.3%... Chinese solar stocks under pressure on combination of weakness in China and in sympathy with SOLF earnings: JASO -5.9%, CSUN -5.0%, CSIQ -4.7%... Other news: IOMI -8.6% (continued pressure), TINY -6.0% (still checking), DEEP -3.6% (initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan).
Futures indicate a lower start for the mkt as China's Shanghai Composite sold off 6.5% following yesterday afternoon's report that the Chinese govt tripled the tax on stock trading to 0.3% in an effort to curb speculative buying activity in the mkt. Note the monthly ADP employment report showed that an estimated 97K new private jobs, or roughly 123K nonfarm jobs, were created in May. However, the ADP report lacks credibility compared to Friday's more closely-watched May nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to check in around 135K.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: KNXA at Credit Suisse; Downgrades: BWLD at RBC; Initiations: STLD at Citi (Buy)... On the Earnings calendar: CHS, JRJC, JAS, LGF, NOVL, OPTM, PSS, SMTC and TIVO are confirmed to report after the close... On the Economic calendar, the May 9 FOMC Minutes will be released at 14:00ET.
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CWTR +12.0%, DBRN +4.5%, PVH +3.0%... M&A: CDWC +3.5% (confirms it will be acquired by Madison Dearborn Partners for $87.75/share... Other news: OPWV +4.2% (Unstrung discusses ongoing rumors of higher bid in Openwave), BIIB +3.6% (announces $3 bln share repurchase through a modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer), TASR +2.5% (announces two orders).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 5/30/2007 08:39:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, May 29, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Choppy, Low Volume Post Holiday Trade
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rlz2sstW1tI/AAAAAAAABcw/lzDty5wtcos/s400/comp.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rlz2s8tW1uI/AAAAAAAABc4/KSd6DFSm8fE/s400/comp15.pngI don't want to over analyse today's choppy, low volume, post-holiday session as I suspect many traders/investors took an extended weekend. I'm looking at the intraday triangle on the 15 minute time frame to see if it breaks to the upside or downside.
Economic Calendar: Crude inventories at 10:30; FOMC Minutes from May 9th at 2:00.
Trading up in AH (After Hours) : CWTR (earnings), OPWV, BCSI, CDWC
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Posted by Jamie at 5/29/2007 11:58:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Dummy Trade of the Day - Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DLTR)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rly8e8tW1rI/AAAAAAAABcg/cU7wENyPduM/s400/dltr2.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rly8fMtW1sI/AAAAAAAABco/sRRMab_1hSc/s400/dltr3.png A choppy session with a fair share of failures. The first chart is the 15 minute timeframe and the second is the 5 minute.
DLTR gapped up following Friday's NRB and presented a low risk entry on a break of the second bar high. As with many setups today, there was a caveat, the first bar's long upper shadow. I took the trade anyway knowing that last week's pivot point high would most likely be challenged and that the risk:reward ratio fit my rules.
Although choppy at first, DLTR set up a nice base and break pattern as it tested last week's pivot point. This made me more hopeful that the challenge would succeed. However, shortly after the breakout, DLTR came back in sharply. This did not feel like a retest of the breakout point. On the 15 minute timeframe it carved out an ominous looking hanging man, so I took my exit as the profit on this trade was limited to begin with.
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Posted by Jamie at 5/29/2007 07:49:00 PM 7 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Base_Breakout, Gapper, Pivot Point
Saturday, May 26, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Verigy Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:VRGY)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/Rlh0m8tW1qI/AAAAAAAABcY/D6dGvSdCWJM/s400/vrgy.png VRGY gapped up on strong volume. Initially it retraced below the daily pivot high, but quickly recaptured and closed above it. The second bar was gravestone doji type bar which did not inspire confidence. As the chart developed, I decided to use the 30 minute ORH as my base because it was a lot cleaner and made the chart easier to read. By mid to late morning, the stock had worked off the initial negativity and began to consolidate in a NR on declining volume. As price and the rising 5 period EMA collided, VRGY carved out a NR7 bar, following which price expanded and my buy stop order was hit.
The reason I decided to stick with VRGY despite the gravestone doji, was that there was no resistance. Once the ORH was taken out, price ascended into virgin, blue sky territory.
My Dummy Trading Rules for Base Breakout Gappers:
[*]Very high relative volume;[*]Maximum Fibonacci retracement of ORH to previous day low = 38%;[*]Minimum risk:reward ratio for target 38% Fibonacci extension = 1:3;[*]Proximity between price and 5 period ema at base breakout point;[*]Length of consolidation vs. size of gap, ie. the wider the gap, the longer the relative consolidation period;[*]Volume contraction prior to breakout.
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Posted by Jamie at 5/26/2007 01:53:00 PM 8 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point
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Saturday, May 26, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlhnCctW1mI/AAAAAAAABb4/tn-NluEcLG8/s400/comp.pngAs expected, Friday's action was narrow range on much lower, pre-holiday volume. Nonetheless, we did manage to recapture the trendline on the opening gap up. The remainder of the day was contained within two intraday pivot points. It was a stock pickers trading environment as most stocks just chopped around in snooze fest range.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlhnCstW1nI/AAAAAAAABcA/PPJdFylJWuo/s400/comp15.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlhnCstW1oI/AAAAAAAABcI/VBwma8slUBo/s400/compweek.pngThe weekly timeframe is still relatively bullish as we continue to consolidate in a tight range on declining volume. Thus, the three hammer/hanging men candlesticks were not resolved yet again as we only managed to add to the unknown by carving out an ambiguous, red doji stick.
As you can see from the McClellan oscillator below, despite heavy selling midweek, we are in the neutral zone with respect to oversold/overbought market bias.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlhnC8tW1pI/AAAAAAAABcQ/yN-JcS7QFUg/s400/namo.pngCharts courtesy of stockcharts.com
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Posted by Jamie at 5/26/2007 12:53:00 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Doji, NASDAQ
Friday, May 25, 2007Pre-Market - Friday May 25th
Gapping down on news: SLFI -35.7% (co reports its investigation has revealed evidence of a sophisticated loan scheme), WAVX -12.0% (to sell 7.3 mln shares of stock at $2.05 per share), NDAQ -5.8% (to buy Nordic exchange O.M.X.), TRB -2.1% (announces preliminary results of tender offer), AMGN -1.0% (EU health panel adopted a negative opinion for Vectibix).
Futures indicate a higher open for the mkt as yesterday's pullback seems to be viewed as a buying opportunity. M&A activity is once again contributing to the positive tone as KO agreed to buy Glaceau for $4.1 bln, while NDAQ said it would pay $3.7 bln for the Nordic exchange OMX. Note there were no market-moving earnings releases or economic data out this morning.
Notable pre-market Calls: NYX is trading up ~2%, Goldman upgrade to Neutral is being cited; HPQ initiated with an Outperform at Friedman Billings... Nothing remains on the Earnings calendar for today... On the Economic calendar, as mentioned above Apr Existing Home Sales (consensus 6.13 mln) will be released at 10:00ET.
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: VRGY +11.8%, LNUX +11.3%, RRGB +9.9%, ARUN +8.2%, VIP +3.3%... Other: CUP +18.0% (entered into an exclusivity agreement with a third party regarding a potential transaction), IDMI +14.0% (initiated with a Buy & $11 tgt at Canort Fitzgerald), LMRA +7.6%, BIVN +7.5% (highlighted in BusinessWeek's Inside Wall Street), RFMD +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), DCX +3.5%, CCE +3.3% (KO to buy Glaceau for $4.2 bln, CCE manufactures/distributes KO beverages), BOBJ (WestLB raises BOBJ to Buy), KO +1.4% (co to buy Glaceau for $4.2 bln).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
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Posted by Jamie at 5/25/2007 08:39:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Overdue Correction
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlZqCctW1iI/AAAAAAAABbY/b9wJhKcWFd4/s400/comp.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlZqCstW1jI/AAAAAAAABbg/la8JdeYUt1s/s400/comp15.png Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com
Today's WR, higher volume profit taking and negative divergence hint that this correction could go beyond the usual 2-3 day pullback. I'm watching the 2525 level with interest on this third retest of support.
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: VRGY +11.2%; RRGB +6.3%; LNUX +5.9%; ARUN +5.7%; HRAY +2.9%; MENT +2.2%; ARO +1.9%; CTRN +1.7%... Trading Down: PRLS -13.2%; DITC -7.4%; HIBB -2.7%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: CUP +22.7% (enters into exclusivity agreement); NHHC +17.7% (acts to pursue superior offer); MDII +7.5% (products chosen for implementation at two U.S. Marine Corps bases); LNUX +5.9% (Announces Name Change to SourceForge, Inc.); IVC +1.1% (discloses in 8-K it recently became aware of a potential embezzlement at one of its foreign facilities; situation under investigation)... Trading Down: SLFI -2.0% (discloses in 8-K that investigation has revealed evidence of a sophisticated loan scheme, orchestrated by certain EFI officers); RMIX -1.3% (appoints Michael Harlan President and Chief Executive Officer).
Economic calendar: Existing Home Sales at 10:00
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlZs2ctW1kI/AAAAAAAABbo/5xWrfusN4CA/s400/briefing_com_10pix.gif
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Posted by Jamie at 5/25/2007 12:23:00 AM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: NASDAQ
Thursday, May 24, 2007Trade of the Day - Hansen Natural Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:HANS)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlY1z8tW1gI/AAAAAAAABbI/jQTD7aUo2mA/s400/HANS.png HANS opened fairly flat and tried to move higher, carving out a long upper shadow and some dojis. The narrow red bar at the cusp of yesterday afternoon's consolidation zone, presented a low risk shorting opportunity. HANS easily took out support on the next bar, closing below its 50 MA which subsequently held as resistance. I took a partial as price approached the 200 MA and covered the balance as price came into its $39.00 PP.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LsWQWmRqnWY/RlY10MtW1hI/AAAAAAAABbQ/SaNcKjDgq14/s400/amzn.png AMZN was a short on a trend line break on the 5 minute timeframe. I covered my short when it carved out a tweezer bottom reversal on the 11:30 bar. I also went long but had to scratch the trade. Shortly after that AMZN made a higher low while the market continued lower. I went long again hoping for a retracement back to the morning swing high. I took a partial at the 38% Fibonacci retracement from yesterday's high to the morning low. Unfortunately, AMZN reversed after tagging the 38% level and I spent most of the rest of the afternoon waiting to be stopped out. My stop held by a penny and I closed my position on a small rally end of day. The 38% retracement level lines up with the ORH and maybe that is why it was more significant than I anticipated. I was surprised to see how quickly the stock reversed after the 38% tag.
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Posted by Jamie at 5/24/2007 08:36:00 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci