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New technologies promise to drive costs down further. Cells that are more efficient at converting
sunlight into energy, for example, reduce the number of modules needed in each system,
which cuts installation costs. SunPower now makes a cell that is more than 21 percent efficient,
compared with an industry average of about 15 percent efficiency.
Chevron Energy Solutions President Jim Davis says new installation and mounting technologies are
also reducing the total price per kilowatt-hour, as are projects that combine solar power with
energy- efficiency technologies.
Then there are thin-film technologies, which use little or no silicon. Silicon is the costliest component
of most solar cells, so thin films could reduce costs dramatically if they reach large volumes.
Lowell, Massachusetts-based Konarka, San Jose, California-based Miasolé, Austin, Texas-based HelioVolt,
and Palo Alto, California-based Nanosolar all received funding within the last year to develop thin film.
New technologies aside, solar power depends on a source that will be around for a while.
Even nuclear power will reach its limits when uranium runs out, says SEIA’s Mr. Resch, who predicts
a shortage within 30 years.
Still, doubts linger. Fossil fuel prices could fall, new efficiencies could extend the life of reserves,
economic collapse could come, or the sky could fall. “The oil price created a kind of hype,” says
Earlybird’s Mr. Nagel. “There is a good market in Germany, for instance, but elsewhere I think
there has been kind of a blip, a mini bubble.”
In the bursting bubble scenario, profits start falling off, stock prices plummet, investment in
forward technologies stops, and governments take their subsidies off the table.
Let’s stay with subsidies for one last moment. Often forgotten in all the chatter is how oil industry
subsidies have been outstripping anything solar ever received— for decades.
Solar subsidies usually take the form of investment or production tax credits—or price guarantees
in some countries. Companies investing in oil, coal, and nuclear power do much, much better.
They get subsidies to help extract and produce oil or coal, or to build nuclear plants,
says UCS’ Mr. Wentworth.
In short, big energy beats solar hands down in the subsidy department and investors have yet
to go weak at the knees over it. “We’d love to see a level playing field,” says Mr. Wentworth.
“The central issue is financing and markets, and we want to have an equal shot.”
Global demand is growing so fast that many different sources of energy are needed, says
Chevron’s Mr. Davis. “The more the merrier.”
[ 本帖最后由 the_top 于 2006-3-28 21:21 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2006-3-28 16:26
