技术分析的终极真理__ I disagree

聚散随缘

Originally posted by 时价 at 2005-3-15 17:40

随口说的 交易是精确的科学,肯定不对.


本意想说
交易要象爱情: 一颦一笑地脉脉传情 弦外之音地心领神会 到达细致精妙的程度.

时版深得其中三味，可浮一大白!
为如此细致精妙的爱情干杯，为同样细致精妙的交易干杯!:*22*::*22*::*22*:

时价

金兄　缘兄　凹兄的见解很好　见识了  谢谢

金融帝国

Originally posted by 时价 at 2005-3-15 17:40

随口说的 交易是精确的科学,肯定不对.


本意想说
交易要象爱情: 一颦一笑地脉脉传情 弦外之音地心领神会 到达细致精妙的程度.

开始还没有完全领会时版的意图,经缘兄一解释.我也确实感觉到时版说得很精辟!

biobuck

On a serious note, the market is alwasy tring to tell us its secret (through its price action and movement).  The problem for most of investors is they refuse to listen to the market or are unable to see the subtle signals.  They ingore market's 脉脉传情.  Only those who pay attentions will get it (心领神会).  

Good Luck with YOur Trading!

聚散随缘

哈哈，妙语妙人，妙地妙文，再来一杯!:o:o:o

[ Last edited by 聚散随缘 on 2005-3-17 at 00:36 ]

学海无崖

真是集合了大家智慧的帖子，加为精华！

PCR

这话很精典.各位也很认真,很难得的心态.

q120068

看帖是学习---回帖是礼貌

pcx102392

为什麽不说中文

lockgrow

微妙： 一颦一笑地脉脉传情 弦外之音地心领神会 到达细致精妙的程度

留印

my God----------:*31*::*31*::*31*::*31*:

当你硬要把行为本身，用哲学分析的时候，或者你快成伟人了，或者你走火入魔了！


简单实用，满足生活美好就行~~~~


奉劝大家，吃一堑、长一智——这是万物生存的基础……有所为，有所不为吧！


相信我，人类5000年的文明产物，只有道德标准是伟大的！为名利所浮夸出的一切所谓方法、心得，用着都要小心。同时注意，所知越多，幸福越远！





实干、奉献、坚忍、自强……

交易都上纲上线了，多么的伪科学啊！卖鞋的也知道，买卖是艺术！

[ Last edited by 留印 on 2005-4-5 at 21:39 ]

lhtypp

终极真理？？？

btjxb

给翻译一下

时价

Originally posted by btjxb at 2005-4-15 16:06
给翻译一下

多观察　多思考　多总结

seanwu

Tradings is an inportant way to understang the future, it  may have the information coming from the GOD. In this time, he give us a power, which is called "Hold on and catch up".:*22*:

[ Last edited by seanwu on 2005-4-16 at 01:47 ]

大地飞鹰

一边是连“技术”与“交易”都分不清，一边是完胜。
Mr biobuck，See u along

biobuck

Originally posted by seanwu at 2005-4-16 01:46
Tradings is an inportant way to understang the future, it  may have the information coming from the GOD. In this time, he give us a power, which is called "Hold on and catch up".:*22*:

Trading is a process of writing history!  Every trade contributes to this process.  I don't know about what role "GOD" is playing here though.  :)

Good Luck!

大地飞鹰

请教biobuck先生：
您说：“Techinical analysis is a science, a tool or a method that traders use to measure the (past) market behavior. Technical analysis is not about how to predict the market.  It can't predict what the market will do tomorrow or next week.  It only tells you what the market has been doing!”I see，明白了！太高明了，我支持你！！您看，我又站在你那边了！！！

可是，我访问了您的网站，却发现，你在上证综合指数的K线图上画了几条线，然后说，忘记中国的股票市场吧，那儿的老百姓就知道买，买而又买，直到耗尽能力，最终的肮脏而又痛苦的抛售将不堪一睹，第一目标是740，最终380。

您爱赌不睹想睹就赌，可是我睹了你的博客却糊涂了，解铃还需系铃人，希望您不吝赐教。我的问题是：

Fisrt,你划的那些线是不是“Techinical analysis”？
Second,740和380是不是“predict the market”？
Third,“The final panic selling will be nasty and painful to watch”是不是“predict what the market will do tomorrow or next week”？

这段评论原文如下：
“I don't care if you walk or run, just stay the heck away from that market. Simply forget the Chinese market all together since you are not allowed to short there anyway. The head & shoulder target is 380! The exchange opened its door on 1991. As you can see from this chart , investors in China have never experienced a secular bear market yet. They will buy and continue to buy on every bear market rally until they are completely exhausted. The final panic selling will be nasty and painful to watch”

有些观点保留意见，92-93大跌不见得比29年大崩溃逊色，那几年内外交困老百姓的日子过得实在不怎么样。中国的投资者也不是没有经历过长期的熊市，文化大革命都走过来了，生活的道理是一样的。

MACD的朋友看好了，咱用不着跟他讨论什么“Techinical analysis”和“Trading”，词汇是他的，规则是他的。咱请教问题，当个乖学生。

[ Last edited by 大地飞鹰 on 2005-7-13 at 16:46 ]

aiai_guozi

很简短，很经典

biobuck

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-13 16:25
MACD的朋友看好了，咱用不着跟他讨论什么“Techinical analysis”和“Trading”，词汇是他的，规则是他的。咱请教问题，当个乖学生

Hahaha, you think you are a smart ass (a slang, no offense), don't you?  Okay let's argue since you seem to enjoy this.  Just remeber, don't ever argue with the market.  The market is always right!!!!
Let me answer your questions first

Fisrt,你划的那些线是不是“Techinical analysis”？  

YES!

Second,740和380是不是“predict the market”？

NO!  Noticed I used the term "target"?  "The head & shoulder target is 380! " what this meant was that IF this H&S pattern works again like many instances in the history(notice the big IF?), the market has the POTENTIAL to go there.  Will the market go there?  who knows, maybe, maybe not.  The TA  was merely used to derive a  target to assess the potential risk, to help investor making an educated decision (guess) BASED on the past behaviors of the stock market.  Without this tool, I wouldn't be able to do that.  The question "should I buy?, is this simply another bear market rally?" will be asked over and over again @900, @800, @740, @500, @380....  Will it work this time?  Perhaps, since in the past, it worked more often than not in my opinion. I'd rather take this gamble than flip a coin.  All we want is a tool that can tip the odds (the balance) slightly to our favor so that we win more often than lose!  Anything better than random dart shooting is better.  So 740 and 380 are targets of potential importance.  Nothing more to it.  The market could bottom next week and head higher.  Hopefully one of TA tools can identify that and investors to get onboard if that happenes.  

Third,“The final panic selling will be nasty and painful to watch”是不是“predict what the market will do tomorrow or next week”？

No. Panic selling is an emotional behavior of the mass observed and associated to market (extreme)  bottoms.  When I see a beautiful girl, I know she is beautiful!  I don't need to predict anything.  I am just observing!!!!  What that has anything to do with prediction?

93大跌不见得比29年大崩溃逊色，那几年内外交困老百姓的日子过得实在不怎么样。中国的投资者也不是没有经历过长期的熊市，文化大革命都走过来了，生活的道理是一样的

A secular bear market means a LONG TERM bear market.  Go look at japanese's market you will know what secular bear looks like.  文化大革命 has nothign to do with stock market.  Ever heard of someone can paper trade the market with great success but lost in the market?  YOu can't simulate the market.  Market is unique!  It has its own dynamics!  内外交困老百姓的日子过得实在不怎么样 has nothign to do with losing their hard earned money everyday!  How can you simulate seeing money evaporate so fast everyday...

Good Luck!