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- 2004-11-8
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罗杰斯谈2005年中国股市及中国未来
1.中航油事件代表了中国很多企业的未来
2.中国企业极不透明，无法做可靠的分析
3.主力基金正在退出中国股票市场，他们卖掉中国汽车股，改买像韩国现代这样受益于中国市场的企业的股票。
4.中国资本主义市场经济已经开始，由于市场基础大，未来机会很大。出现大萧条或大泡沫后使买入一些好企业的机会。
5.jim已经退出中国的交易。理由是惊人的空前巨大的原材料、房地产方面的投机泡沫
6.中国充斥着自以为是的轻松发财的第一代资本家，黑洞会非常多，破产类的案例会达到一个惊人的数量。
7.2005年是个硬着陆的开始，你只需握着美元等待机会抄底。
8.不建议购买向外国投资者发售的股票
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/ ... mp;sid=acJpjKjmUCm4
China Aviation Woes Signal a `Hard Landing,' U.S. Investors Say
Dec. 28(Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund in 1970 with George Soros, says the trading fiasco that cost state-run China Aviation Oil Holding Co. $550 million is an omen of tougher times ahead for Chinese companies and their investors. ``I can hardly wait,'' he says.
``There will be a hard landing in 2005 and I'm going to buy when that happens,'' says Rogers, 62, a New York investor who manages about $500 million in funds based on his Rogers International Commodity Index.
Missteps by Beijing-based China Aviation Oil in the trading scandal of its Singapore subsidiary show that many Chinese companies lack transparency and are unprepared for turbulence as the government brakes the economy, says Matthew Hudson, manager of the $315 million American Century Global Growth Fund in New York.
``Growth is slowing there, which makes us hesitant,'' says Hudson. ``For us to invest in China, we have to be 100 percent certain that the stocks we are buying are the stuff we believe in.''
China's economic expansion slowed to an estimated 9 percent rate this year from 9.3 percent in 2003, the government reported, after authorities in April began limiting investment and lending to steel, cement, real estate and auto companies.
Hudson says his fund sold its shares of Chinese automakers earlier this year and doesn't own any Chinese stocks now. Instead, it holds shares of companies outside China that can benefit from doing business there, such as Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea's largest carmaker.
A $550 Million Bet
China Aviation (Oil) Singapore, the subsidiary that is China's biggest importer of jet fuel, wagered that oil prices would fall in October. The mistaken bet cost $550 million as prices surged to a record.
The derivatives trading losses were the biggest in Singapore since trader Nick Leeson wiped out $1.4 billion of Barings Plc's capital in 1995, leading to the bank's collapse. Derivatives are financial obligations whose value is derived from underlying assets such as debt and equity securities, currencies and commodities.
As China Aviation's trading losses mounted, the Singapore- listed company failed to disclose them to its investors. Instead, the Chinese parent company sold a 15 percent stake in the Singapore subsidiary in October to European and Asian investors, raising S$196 million ($119.5 million). It did so to cover margin calls, or funding requirements, on the money-losing trades, the company's chief executive, Chen Jiulin, said in an affidavit in Singapore's High Court.
`First-Generation Capitalists'
The scandal highlights a lack of corporate transparency in China, the U.S. ratings service Standard & Poor's said Dec. 3. ``Complex corporate structures and unreliable accounting practices make it difficult to perform substantive analysis on some China-related companies,'' said S&P, which is owned by New York-based McGraw-Hills Cos.
``I expect more problems in the Chinese market,'' says Rogers, who spent a decade at the Quantum Fund. ``There will be more things like this and more bankruptcies, a lot more. The Chinese are first-generation capitalists. It's not as easy as it looks.'' Rogers's index funds include the Diapason fund, a partnership with Lausanne, Switzerland-based Equinoxe Partners.
Rogers saw firsthand the promise of China's economy beginning in 1988 on the first of three trips across the country by motorcycle and car. He says he's stopped investing in Chinese equities for now because of what he calls ``massive speculation'' that has driven up prices of real estate, construction and raw materials.
U.S. Investors Flock
The prices of building materials and nonferrous metals leapt 139 percent in the first 10 months of 2004, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics.
U.S. investors have flocked to China. Assets in China region mutual funds sold in the U.S. soared to $2.9 billion this year, a fourfold increase in five years, according to New York-based Lipper, an investment information service owned by Reuters Group Plc of London.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of 38 state-controlled companies has soared 150 percent, with dividends reinvested, since the beginning of 2003, even after declining 3.8 percent since Nov. 30, the day China Aviation reported its trading losses. The index has dropped 2.3 percent, with dividends reinvested, this year. That compares with a rise of 1 percent since Nov. 30 for the benchmark Hang Seng Index of 33 of the largest stocks traded in Hong Kong. The benchmark index has climbed 16.9 percent, with dividends reinvested, since the beginning of the year.
`Much More Leery'
China Aviation Oil (Singapore) halted trading in its shares Nov. 29, the day before it filed for protection from creditors. Before their suspension, China Aviation Oil's shares more than tripled from their December 2001 trading debut as the company announced plans to refine, store and trade oil in Singapore, the Middle East and Europe. The company's market value rose to S$933.8 million from S$322.6 million.
The China Aviation fiasco should be a warning to China as well as investors, says Mark Mobius, who manages $13 billion of emerging markets investments for Singapore-based Templeton Asset Management Ltd.
``I think people are going to be much more leery and aware of the pitfalls and the problems you can have in China,'' Mobius said in Dec. 14 radio interview with Bloomberg News. ``If the Chinese government is going to be able to sell their equity to foreign investors, they're going to have to focus on these risks.'' Templeton is owned by San Mateo, California-based Franklin Resources Inc.
CEO Arrested
Mobius, 68, said the missteps by China Aviation will encourage better market oversight just as the accounting scandals at Enron Corp. and other corporations did in the U.S.
In Singapore, the police, central bank and stock exchange are all investigating China Aviation's derivatives trades and the share sale by the parent company, which owns 60 percent of the Singapore unit.
China Aviation Chief Executive Chen, 43, was suspended Nov. 30 and said in his court affidavit that he knew about the trading losses before the share sale. Chen, a Chinese national, was arrested in Singapore on Dec. 8 when he returned to the island from a trip to China. He hasn't been charged.
`A Worrying Sign'
John Casey, a spokesman for China Aviation in Singapore, didn't return calls seeking a comment.
Investors should be more concerned than they appear about the trading scandal, says Andrew Beal, who manages about $500 million of Asia and emerging market equities at San Diego-based Nicholas-Applegate Capital Management LLC.
``Nobody is really talking about China Aviation and that's a bit of a worrying sign,'' he says. ``People may be over- reaching.''
Beal says he's cautious about investing while the government tries to slow economic expansion. He's reduced his holdings in Chinese industrial companies such as Anhui Conch Cement Co.
China's industrial production grew at a 14.8 percent annual rate in November, the slowest pace in 18 months, according to official figures. Inflation fell to a rate of 2.8 percent from 4.3 percent in October.
The Chinese government has so far succeeded in slowing growth without causing a market crash and that has made investment in China too lucrative to ignore, says Connor Browne, a money manager at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Buying More Shares
``We haven't focused on China Aviation,'' says Browne, whose company has about 7 percent of its $2 billion international value fund in China and Hong Kong shares. He has been buying more Chinese stocks since last year, when the fund hired Lei Wang, a Chinese national, as a money manager.
Thornburg's investments include a stake in Hong Kong-based China Merchants Holdings International Co., a port-management company whose shares climbed 42 percent this year with dividends reinvested. Another holding, Shanghai-based Internet gaming company Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd., has more than tripled, to $39.35 at 11:50 a.m. in New York on the Nasdaq Stock Market, since its initial stock offering in May.
China Aviation Oil is not the first Chinese-owned company accused by investors of withholding information. U.S. shareholders in state-controlled China Life Insurance Co., which raised $3.5 billion in the world's biggest share sale of 2003, filed a class-action suit against the company in a New York federal court in March, alleging that the Beijing-based insurer had violated federal securities laws.
In a civil complaint filed March 16 in Southern District of New York, a group of investors said China's biggest insurer failed to disclose a financial fraud associated with its parent company, China Life Insurance (Group) Co., before its initial public offering.
`A Natural Development'
Li Yinghui, a China Life investor-relations officer in Beijing, said Dec. 3 that the company's lawyers were in talks with legal counsel for the shareholders.
The failure of companies such as China Aviation Oil to disclose information to investors shows why regulations evolve and strengthen, says Eric Sandlund, senior equity manager at Columbia Management Advisors in San Francisco, with more than $3 billion of international holdings.
``It's a natural development in China's capital market,'' says Sandlund. For now, he's neither buying nor selling China shares.
Although Rogers sees short-term trouble in China he says he remains a long-term bull.
``The 21st Century belongs to China,'' says Rogers, which is why he hired a Mandarin-speaking nanny for his 18-month-old daughter in New York. ``She's going to need to know Chinese.'' |
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发表于 2005-3-2 10:36
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