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Guest post: China rebalancing is a dangerous obsession – beyondbrics – Blogs – FT.com China’s problem is not that investment is too high, but that underdeveloped capital markets have meant investment has been funded through the wrong financing model. Too much has been funded by short-term bank lending, sometimes through non-transparent local government vehicles or other parts of the shadow banking system. This creates a duration mismatch, as many of these projects have returns that accrue over a long period of time. The real rebalancing challenge is therefore more subtle. It involves changing the way investment is funded by improving credit supply through a more developed credit market, improving access for small and medium-sized enterprises, and expanding the local government bond market to fund long-term infrastructure investment…The obsession with rebalancing China’s economy is instead leading to misguided policy recommendations that are too blunt, and which may carry unintended consequences.–This piece was written jointly by Qu Hongbin and John Zhu, HSBC’s Greater China Economist. Xi New Economy Stocks Selling Off With the Old: China Overnight – Bloomberg “The market is now pricing in the risk that China won’t make a successful transition,” Wang Zheng, the Shanghai-based chief investment officer at Jingxi Investment Management Co., which oversees about $120 million, said by phone on July 4. The shift “will be much more difficult.” China Vanke June Sales Up 44% to RMB 19.4B Amid Real Estate Slump | Mingtiandi So far this year, China Vanke has achieved RMB 101 billion in sales – an increase of 20.6 percent compared to the same period last year, and says that it is on track to achieve its 2014 sales target of RMB 200 billion. The company’s performance was up 14.6 percent in terms of square metres sold during the period from January to June, reaching 8.21 million square metres for the year to date. Of that total, 1.74 million square metres were sold in June. Urban sprawl: People, not paving | The Economist Chenggong was connected to Kunming’s new metro network last year. City-government offices and local universities have already moved there. By 2016 it will have a $525m bullet-train station with one of its 30 tracks connecting to Shanghai, 2,000km (1,200 miles) to the east. By the end of this decade the population of Chenggong is expected to reach nearly 1m, three times its current level. Not so long ago Chenggong was derided as a ghost city in the making. Few are now so scornful. Why FATCA Could Make It Harder For Rich Chinese to Hide Their Wealth – China Real Time Report – WSJ China is getting something in return for its agreement. In exchange for giving financial information to the U.S. about its citizens and green-card holders, the U.S. will give China information about Chinese taxpayers in the U.S., according to people involved in the discussions. The negotiators expect to clear the legal hurdles necessary to make that happen, according to lawyers and people involved in the discussions. New Loan-Deposit Formula ‘Could Free up 2 Bln Yuan for Banks to Lend’ – Caixin Fresh approach effectively cuts ratio by 2 percentage points, Shenyin & Wanguo Securities says, but it’s unclear if that will spur lending PRD Megacity Emerges: Subway to Connect Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen | TheNanfang Details of the tri-city subway system that will interconnect the public transportation networks of Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen have been announced, reports Yangcheng Evening Report. The subway line will extend from Xintang, Baiyun Airport to Guangzhou North station. Costing RMB 3.44 billion, the subway line will consist of 13 subways stations, U.S. companies feel a chill in China, even as many still rake in profits – The Washington Post certainly the age of special treatment is // In a possible sign of the growing disenchantment, U.S. investment in China fell 9.3 percent in the first five months of 2014 compared with the same period last year. Although such numbers are volatile, the decline in investment from Europe was even bigger. “Perhaps the golden age for multinationals in China is over,” said Duncan Clark, chairman of investment advisory firm BDA. Cars Beating Homes Shifts Steel Use in China: Chart of the Day – Bloomberg “The steel-price premium may widen again over the next six months as a slowing property market weighs on rebar demand, while purchases of automobiles and white goods will remain robust,” said Xu Xiangchun, chief analyst in Beijing at Mysteel Research. Investors who sell rebar and buy hot-rolled coil will be making “a profitable trade,” he said.
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发表于 2014-7-7 11:34
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