怎样识别顶部(中英对照）

ranchgirl

怎样识别顶部(中英对照）

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.shudaoyoufang.com) 作者：ranchgirl 浏览：14293 回复：8

所有的趋势都有个终点。这次的涨势，是否已临近结束了呢？书上读到一段教人识别顶部的文字，拿来给大家分享一下：

如何学着识别顶部

在市场上涨的过程中，密切观察四大指数（S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Dow 30, and NasdaqComposite）的日线图。在上升趋势中的某一天，市场的交易量比前一日显著升高，但是价格却停滞不前。这叫做“heavy volumewithout further price progress up.”当天大盘不一定会下跌，但是在大多数情况下是以下跌做收的——这令我们更容易发现庄家在出货。这一天的range可能会比前几日的大。.........如果这一日以下跌超过0.2%做收，则应被视作正儿八经的distribution day。（这不就是说的昨天周五（8月28日）吗？）

开始下跌以后，有3个迹象来确认顶部

从顶部下跌过以后，市场通常会有上涨。典型的这种上涨，会表现乏力，并以失败告终。比如，反弹一天以后，第二天开盘很强，然而临近收盘时突然反转下跌。对这种尝试恢复涨势，然后跟进突然失败的情况，你应该卖出。

通过下面3个迹象，你可以知道这个反弹是乏力的，如果(1) 反弹日后第三天，或者第四天，或者第五天又上涨，但是交易量低于反弹日,(2)反弹幅度与第一日相比微不足道，（3）恢复幅度不及跌幅的一半。当你看到这种软弱的上涨并最终失败时，进一步的售出股票是可取的。

摘自p210 《How to Make Money in Stocks -- a winning system in good times or bad》(updated fourth edition) by William J. O'Neil

How you can learn to Identify Stock Market Tops

To detect a market top, keep a close eye on the daily S&P 500, NYSEComposite, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite as they work their way higher.On one of the days in the uptrend, volume for the market as a wholewill increase from the day before, but the index itself will showstalling action (a significantly smaller price increase for the daycompared with the prior day's price increase). I call this "heavyvolume without further price progress up." The average doesn't have toclose down for the day, but in most instances it will, making thedistribution (professional investors liquidate stock) must easier tosee. The day range (spread from the average's daily high to its dailylow) may in some cases be a little wider than on previous days.

Normal liquidation near the market peak will usually occur on three tofive specific days over a period of four or five weeks. In other words,the market comes under distribution wile it's advancing! This is onereason so few people know how to recognize distribution. After four orfive days of definite distribution over any span of four or five weeks,the general market will almost always turn down.

Four days of distribution, if correctly spotted over a two- orthree-week period, are sometimes enough to turn a previously advancingmarket into a decline. Sometimes distribution can be spread over sixweeks if the market attempts at some point to rally back to new highs.

... If one index is down for the day on volume larger than the priorday's volume, it should decline more than 0.2% for this to be countedas a distribution day.

Three Signs the First Rally Attempt May Fail

After the market does top out, it typically will rally feebly and thenfail. After the first day's rebound, for instance, the second day willopen strongly but suddenly turn down near the end of the session. Theabrupt failure of the market to follow through on its first recoveryattempt should probably be met with further selling on your part.

You'll know that the initial bounce back is feeble if (1) the indexadvances in price on the third, fourth, or fifth rally day, but onvolume that is lower than that of the day before, (2) the average makeslittle net upward price progress compared with its progress the daybefore, or(3)the market average recovers less than half of the initialdrop from its former absolute intraday high. When you see these weakrallies and failures, further selling is advisable.

ranchgirl

转载供参考

飞舟

ranch很认真啊:*19*:

安安稳稳

学习，学习:

心源落落

:) :)

sam1221

难得难得，支持支持:*22*: :*22*: :) :)

ranchgirl

原帖由 飞舟 于 2009-8-31 08:33 发表
ranch很认真啊:*19*:

版主加分啊！！！:*29*: :*29*:

liren160

*d:1* *d:1* *d:1*

jackieshi

新手入市，虽然看的不明白但是觉得很厉害。支持了！
以后还请多多指教！