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- 2005-9-11
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好象是那环球什么上面的？
Last month we said that the explosive volume during China’s advance in February indicated a third wave. Volume can again help us to confirm the wave count. Volume during the March and April advance has so far been less than February’s advance. Elliott Wave Principle observes that “in a normal fifth wave below Primary degree, volume tends to be less than in the third wave” .The 2005-2007 rally in the Shanghai Composite displays at least a few examples of this phenomenon. Notice how volume trailed off at the end of wave (1), wave 1 of (3), and at the end of wave 5 itself. Since that pattern is occurring again, the impulse up from the November lows in China is likely to be in its terminal stage. New volume highs in the rally would suggest that wave 5 is extending, as Elliott Wave Principle also states, “If volume in an advancing fifth wave of less than Primary degree is equal to or greater than that in the third wave, an extension of the fifth is in force.”
1 l5 p/ m6 v* D7 y$ _! e2 z$ }
Another indication that China’s mood may be nearing a point of temporary excess was the news on March 6 that the nation’s stock market regulators “may soon end a moratorium on initial public offerings after the Shanghai Composite Index rallied 20 percent this year to become the world’s best-performing stock benchmark.” The authorities had imposed the ban in September after the index had fallen more than 60% to become the world’s then worst-performing stock benchmark. Elliott Wave International has long demonstrated how government is “the ultimate trend-follower,” because it reacts to trends only after they are mostly over. If the regulators give their signal soon, it could be a short-term sell for Chinese stocks.# z: Y* o/ }7 e9 Y3 e6 ?+ L- u/ Z
In labeling the advance an impulse, we ignore the slight intraday overlaps of the bottom of wave 4 with the top of wave 1 in the Shanghai Composite. We feel comfortable doing that because many other Chinese general indexes, including the CSI 300, the Shenzhen Composite, and the Shenzhen Small & Medium Enterprise (SME) Index, all show no overlap and have advanced in clearly impulsive patterns. Wave 5 may hit our long-standing minimum target at 2700, near the top of the trend channel. If it doesn’t do so now, it should do so later in wave B. The SME Index’s advance may end near the 61.8% retracement of the 2007-2008 decline.The small-cap growth index’s rapid rebound is encouraging for
the long-term in China. Following the 1973-1974 bear market, the Nasdaq Index may have foretold the next growth cycle by recovering to new all-time highs in 1979, three years before the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For the long- |
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发表于 2009-8-17 17:59
楼主
