一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:01

Note the Keltner can be a reasonable stop loss if you trade without stops.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:02

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:03

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:03

Market closed on POC so this will be neutral unless prices move away
during the overnight session. We will comment further in the morning.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:04

Note this is only intended to illustrate how stopless trading can work.
We do not recommend stopless trading because it is so difficult psychologically.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:05

We are still optimizing stops for the ER2, however in the meantime if you were trading stopless you would have exited at nearly break-even. This is typically the case with Universal, even on a losing trade. Stops do not provide a significant improvement in profitability; rather, they remove the stress of a losing trade with a pre-defined stop based on optimizing.

Note the lower VPC already triggered a buy signal, albeit just before 8:30, therefore that VPC is invalidated. Because there is no VPC below 82.60, we are only looking at shorts from the 691.80 VPC (shown on this chart and the next one down).

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:05

Here is an example of how even optimized stops can fail. In this case, if we had a specific stop in place based on optimization over 100 or more trades, that stop would most likely have been hit. However, for a method such as the Universal which uses oscillators to signal both entry and exit in most cases, after a stop is hit, prices will eventually return (oscillate) to give us a reasonable exit price, even if that exit is at a loss or break-even. Statistically, stops do not improve the profitability of oscillator-based trades. However, they do provide two key advantages: (1) they reduce the psychological stress of trading, and (2) they reduce the individual amount (drawdown) of any one trade. Of course, if you are continuously building up your profits by taking trades with no stop, then you can afford those "larger" draw downs when the trade moves significantly against you.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:06

Exit 1/2 at Keltner band

Approaching long signal @ vpc

Very narrow range or today. Watch for a touch on one side and a break to the other.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:09

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:10

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:10

ER2 opened right at the VPC so no Universal trade is possible. However one could take short or long trades away from the VPC with increased risk.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:11

This shows the Fibonacci targets. You can see that the 1.618 target was hit, leading to a Wave 4 retracement. If prices move on up, look for the Wave 5 target (shown here with the 3rd blue arrow) at or above Fib 2.236.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-20 08:12

Note here we have two long signals generated by the Universal. The first one is likely stopped out depending upon your stops. We do not yet have an optimized stop for recommendation. If you are still long, then you would simply add to your position at the second long signal, which occurs at the next lower Virgin Point of Control (VPC), as shown here.