一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:45

Long signal approaching at VPC

Natural Trading Range for Monday

This is a good time to remind you about the importance of stops. We use an optimized stop based on past history. You can optimize your own stops simply by keeping a record of the high and low points of each trade, then running a simple spreadsheet "if" scenario (or use the Solver plug-in) to tell you where the most profitable exits are, both for stops and for profit-taking. Some people prefer to use market-based stops such as previous lows, or other support/resistance points. These may work too, but make sure that you have tested the efficacy of these before you employ them as your chosen stop method. As a rule of thumb, you should consider a test size of at least 50 trades, and preferably over 100, before using a particular stop method.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:46

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:46

Note the previously indicated long was not triggered because the oscillators signaled long outside of the value area (VA) of the POC.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:47

Exited at break-even because technically this trade should not have occurred since the original long signal triggered during the overnight session (before 8:30am Eastern).

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:48

This illustrates a 1-2-3 entry, which is the higher low of a reversal. This is the same as a seed wave. Stop can be the higher low itself (here, 1304.5)

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:48

Any break of 1311.50, whether it occurs after a retrace to the POC or before, will have 1314.75~1316.75 as a target. This is calculated using the Fibonacci ratio against the size of the first wave in the reversal, as shown here:

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:49

The market closed right on the POC so look to see which side of 1308.75 it opens tomorrow morning.

This just shows the anatomy of a seed wave. The "seed" is just the first upward wave after a series of downward waves (or vice-versa). Measure the size of that seed wave to estimate the target of the next wave (labeled here as "3"). This is usually a Fibonacci multiple of 1.382~1.618. Likewise, IF (and only if) prices continue on up, you can estimate the target for a potential Wave 5 as 2.236x the size of the original seed wave. Wave 5 tends to be complicated and made up of a number of smaller waves.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:50

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:50

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:51

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:52

Prices are opening above the highest virgin POC, so there is no up-side limit. However, this chart shows the Fibonacci W3 target zone of 1299~1301 so look for a reversal in this area, as the upward trend will naturally exhaust itself here.

This is less a "rule" than it is just common sense. Once the trade has gone substantially all the way towards the first exit target at the Keltner band, and then moved against you, the trade has essentially failed, and it is best to exit at break-even. A good rule of thumb is +2~2.5

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-19 18:56

As you can see from the chart below, the market reversed at yesterday's POC. Unfortunately the stochastic (and other oscillators as well) indicated that the market was oversold, and this in turn did not give us the statistical confidence to take a short trade. The advantage of oscillators such as stochastic is that they help confirm other signals. The disadvantage is that when the market moves against their indications, we grow frustrated. The key is to build a trading system around the combination, with optimized target exits and stops, so that we can minimize losses while maximizing profit. This can only be achieved by applying objective methods. Subjective decisions can only be "shown" in hindsight, and are not useful for illustrating. Indeed, they can be even more frustrating to the novice trader.