一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:31

Commentary: The push through 1.3437 signals that wave iii, of a 5 wave rally that began at 1.3261, is underway. An objective is 1.3656, the 161.8% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371. Watch the 1.3550 area for resistance as well. The 6/5 high is 1.3552 and the 100% extension is at 1.3547. The structure is bullish as long as 1.3371 is intact.

Strategy: Bullish, against 1.3371, targeting 1.3656

Commentary: We wrote last week that “the USDJPY is likely to subdivide in a 5th wave before a correction. In other words, now is not the time to get bullish. Overbought and divergent RSI along with channel resistance indicate the potential for a pullback.” That pullback is underway right now. There is potential now for a drop to the support line, drawn off of the 4/19 and 6/8 lows, near 122.15. The longer term bull trend is bullish above 120.76. “It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few weeks/month. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70.”
Strategy: None

Commentary: We wrote Friday that “potential resistance is at the 161.8% extension of 1.9883-1.9939/1.9910 at 2.0001.” Cable pushed to 2.0005 and a 5 wave advance (from 1.9621) is complete (or very nearly so). Thus, a pullback is expected, with initial support at 1.9883. We’ll look to align with bulls close to channel support (see chart above).
Strategy: None

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the final leg of the correction is likely to play out the rest of the week towards the 61.8% of 1.2145-1.2476 (1.2271).” The USDCHF has enjoyed a minimal bounce from 1.2268 this morning. The next level of potential support is the 161.8% extension of 1.2476-1.2353/1.2424 at 1.2225. The decline from 1.2424 looks more like a 3rd wave than a wave c, thus we are abandoning the bullish stance.
Strategy: None

Commentary: There is no change to our outlook for the USDCAD. “Price is approaching potential channel resistance, which is just below 1.0800. We are looking for this correction to continue towards channel resistance before a 5th wave decline brings the USDCAD below 1.0548.”

Strategy: None

Commentary: The short term wave structure is unclear but the series of lower highs keeps us looking higher. The short term trend is considered bullish as long as price is above .8428. The longer term trend is considered up as long as price is above .8332. However, the rally from .8332 is suspect and may be the b wave in an irregular flat correction. If this is the case, then price is likely to fall from close to current levels towards .8332.
Strategy: None

Commentary: The short term wave structure is unclear but the series of lower highs keeps us looking higher. The short term trend is considered bullish as long as price is above .8428. The longer term trend is considered up as long as price is above .8332. However, the rally from .8332 is suspect and may be the b wave in an irregular flat correction. If this is the case, then price is likely to fall from close to current levels towards .8332.
Strategy: None
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend. JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data. JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data. An example is below. Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend. The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:33

Commentary: As we have continued to focus on, “the 5 wave rally from 1.3261-1.3437 indicates that the larger trend is up unless 1.3261 is broken.” We were looking for a small wave c towards 1.3328, which is the 61.8% of 1.3261-1.3437 but a push through 1.3437 would suggest that wave iii up is underway. In this instance, an objective is 1.3656, the 161.8% extension of 1.3261-1.3437/1.3371.

Strategy: Bullish, against 1.3261, targeting 1.3656

Commentary: “It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few weeks/month. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70.” Near term, the USDJPY is likely to subdivide in a 5th wave before a correction. In other words, now is not the time to get bullish. Overbought and divergent RSI along with channel resistance indicate the potential for a pullback.
Strategy: Move to flat, we’ll look to return to the bull side on a correction of the 5 wave rally from 120.75.

Commentary: From yesterday “look for weakness/consolidation for the rest of the New York session before the 5th wave rally begins (which should exceed 1.9947).” Cable has thrust higher in a 5th wave which is likely to subdivide higher. Potential resistance is at the 161.8% extension of 1.9883-1.9939/1.9910 at 2.0001 and where wave 5 (beginning at 1.9883) would equal wave 1 (1.9621-1.9780) at 2.0042.
Strategy: None

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the final leg of the correction is likely to play out the rest of the week towards the 61.8% of 1.2145-1.2476 (1.2271).” The USDCHF is tracking our count and there is no change. Potential support is at the confluence of the 50% of 1.2145-1.2476 / 100% extension of 1.2476-1.2353/1.2424 at 1.2301/11.
Strategy: Look to get bullish near 1.2271, against 1.2145, targeting a break above 1.2476.

Commentary: The rally through 1.0750 negates the idea that a doublezig correction is complete. Price is approaching potential channel resistance, near 1.0800 today. We are looking for this correction to continue towards the channel resistance before a 5th wave decline brings the USDCAD below 1.0548.

Strategy: None

Commentary: A bullish may be forming. Channel support is at .8460 and channel resistance is near .8540. The dominant pattern on the daily is the 3 wave setback from .8390 to .8162, which is bullish. Rallies since have unfolded in an impulsive manner. The channel offers the best reference points from which to trade.
Strategy: None

Commentary: There is no change from yesterday as Kiwi continues to confuse. “The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggested to us that at least another 5 wave decline was going to occur with .7637 remaining intact. This could still happen but with Kiwi pressing up against .7600, our confidence in the bear side is low. We do not have a strong opinion on NSDUSD at the moment as the rally from .7452 is sloppy so we are looking at the daily chart for perspective. Watch the resistance line drawn off of the May 2006, April 2007, and June 2007 highs for a potential reversal. If the pattern clears up, then we will write about here.”
Strategy: None


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:37

Commentary: The 5 wave rally from 1.3261-1.3437 indicates that the larger trend is up unless 1.3261 is broken. However, a 5 wave decline at a smaller degree suggests that the decline from 1.3437 is just the first leg of a 3 wave correction. What we are looking for is a bounce in small wave b with a decline in small wave c towards 1.3328, which is the 61.8% of 1.3261-1.3437. Again, the larger trend is up (as long as 1.3261 holds).

Strategy: Bullish, against 1.3261, targeting 1.3680

Commentary: “It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few weeks/month. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70.” We wrote yesterday that “near term, 122.82-123.30 should provide solid support.” The USDJPY slipped to 123.09 yesterday in a 4th wave and the current rally is most likely a 5th wave that will not extend much beyond 123.73 (might already be complete at 123.74). We expect a decline near term to correct the ‘5 up’ from 120.75, so now is not the time to position for a run to 128.00.
Strategy: Move to flat, we’ll look to return to the bull side on a correction of the 5 wave rally from 120.75.

Commentary: Like the EURUSD, the structure in Cable is bullish but the correction that began at 1.9947 is likely to continue for a little longer. Waves 2 and 4 are often similar as far as time is concerned. Wave 2 took 40 hours to complete and wave 4 has only been in progress for 16 hours. So look for weakness/consolidation for the rest of the New York session before the 5th wave rally begins (which should exceed 1.9947). Support is concentrated between 1.9835/78, which is the 23.6%-38.2% of 1.9655-1.9947. The bias is bullish as long as 1.9780 is intact.
Strategy: Look to align with bulls close to 1.9850, against 1.9780, target 1.9947

Commentary: We mentioned that support is at 1.2350 and the USDCHF bounced yesterday at 1.2353 in what is likely wave X in what will be a complex correction of the 1.2145-1.2476 5 wave rally. Near term resistance stretches to 1.2450 (the 78.6% of 1.2476-1.2353). The final leg of the mentioned correction is likely to play out the rest of the week towards the 61.8% of 1.2145-1.2476 (1.2271).
Strategy: Look to get bullish near 1.2271, against 1.2145, targeting a break above 1.2476.

Commentary: It is possible that a double zigzag correction is complete at 1.0750 in the wave 4 position (of the 5 wave decline from 1.1879). If this is the case, then the USDCAD will make a new low (below 1.0548) in order to complete a larger 5 wave decline that began in 2002 at 1.6189. A projected end for the decline is just below 1.0400. This is where channel support from November 2004 comes in. If 1.0750 does not hold, then the next level of resistance is the 23.6% of 1.1825-1.0548 at 1.0850. Short term resistance is between 1.0665 and 1.0698 (shown on short term chart above).

Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0750, targeting below 1.0548 (TBD)

Commentary: The rally fom last week’s low is impulsive, and strongly indicates that at least one more 5 wave rally is expected with .8332 remaining intact. Near term, a c wave decline seems likely to unfold (see labels above). A possible end for wave c is .8403/20, which is the 50% and 38.2% retracements of .8332-.8474. The previous 4th wave extreme is .8396, which reinforces support.
Strategy: Move to flat

Commentary: There is no change from yesterday as Kiwi continues to confuse.  “The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggested to us that at least another 5 wave decline was going to occur with .7637 remaining intact.  This could still happen but with Kiwi pressing up against .7600, our confidence in the bear side is low.  We do not have a strong opinion on NSDUSD at the moment as the rally from .7452 is sloppy so we are looking at the daily chart for perspective.  Watch the resistance line drawn off of the May 2006, April 2007, and June 2007 highs for a potential reversal.  If the pattern clears up, then we will write about here.”
Strategy:  None
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:38

Commentary: We are abandoning the bearish stance now due to the 5 wave rally from 1.3261-1.3437. A small correction may be happening now, but support should be strong near the previous 4th wave at 1.3383. We wrote in a special report two weeks ago that “1.3264 holds and price rallies back to 1.3392, then we would switch to the alternate count which has an ending diagonal unfolding from 1.2482.” That is what we are doing now. We expect a test of 1.3680 before a larger turn lower.

Strategy: Bullish, against 1.3261, targeting 1.3680

Commentary: “It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few weeks/month. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70.” We wrote yesterday that “near term, 122.82-123.30 should provide solid support.” The USDJPY slipped to 123.09 this morning and has shot up past 123.50. Once 123.73 is broken, we expect a larger correction, so now is not the time to position for a run to 128.00.
Strategy: Bullish at 123.30, against 123.09, target 123.73

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “Cable’s rally looks impulsive and the next level of resistance is the 161.8% extension of 1.9621-1.9780/1.9655 at 1.9912.” The pair has traded through this level in what is a small wave iii from 1.9655. Some consolidation in a wave iv is expected before another rally leg. Similar to the EURUSD, we are abandoning the bearish bias now. Support should be strong near 1.9867. Ultimately, we expect a test of 2.0131 before a larger turn down. Look to align with bulls on a 3 wave correction between 1.9827 and 1.9867.
Strategy: Look to align with bulls on a 3 wave correction between 1.9827 and 1.9867.

Commentary: There is no change in the USDCHF as the pair is tracking our count. “The USDCHF may have more downside potential than initially thought. Additional support is at 1.2350 and 1.2311 (38.2%-50% of 1.2145-1.2476).” A longer term bullish outcome remains possible as long as price is above 1.2145 but near term, the path of least resistance looks like it is down.
Strategy: Move to flat (previously bullish)

Commentary: It is possible that a double zigzag correction is complete at 1.0750 in the wave 4 position (of the 5 wave decline from 1.1879). If this is the case, then the USDCAD will make a new low (below 1.0548) in order to complete a larger 5 wave decline that began in 2002 at 1.6189. A projected end for the decline is just below 1.0400. This is where channel support from November 2004 comes in. If 1.0750 does not hold, then the next level of resistance is the 23.6% of 1.1825-1.0548 at 1.0850. Short term resistance is between 1.0665 and 1.0698 (shown on short term chart above).

Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0750, targeting below 1.0548 (TBD)

Commentary: The rally fom last week’s low is is impulsive, and strongly indicates that at least one more 5 wave rally is expected with .8332 remaining intact. We are keeping risk confined to .8396 (which is the low of wave ii). A measured objective for the end of this advance is .8589, which is the 161.8% extension of .8332-.8451/.8396.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8396 target .8580

Commentary: Kiwi has really been confusing lately.  The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggested to us that at least another 5 wave decline was going to occur with .7637 remaining intact.  This could still happen but with Kiwi pressing up against .7600, our confidence in the bear side is low.  We do not have a strong opinion on NSDUSD at the moment as the rally from .7452 is sloppy so we are looking at the daily chart for perspective.  Watch the resistance line drawn off of the May 2006, April 2007, and June 2007 highs for a potential reversal.  If the pattern clears up, then we will write about here.
Strategy:  Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262 (but not too confident right now)
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:41

Commentary: The bounce from 1.3261 has stalled just below the 61.8% of 1.3552-1.3261 at 1.3441. The 21 day SMA at 1.3418 has also held as resistance. Two weeks ago, the EURUSD broke below a support line drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 lows. The pair has come back to test the other side of the line as resistance. The longer term bearish bias is intact as long as price remains below 1.3552.

Strategy: Bearish on a break below 1.3261

Commentary: “It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few weeks/month. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70.” Near term, 122.82-123.30 should provide solid support.
Strategy: Looking to align with bull trend between 122.82 and 123.30

Commentary: Cable’s rally looks impusive and the next level of resistance is 1.9891/1.9912. This is the 78.6% of 1.9964-1.9621 / 161.8% extension of 1.9621-1.9780/1.9655. Coming under 1.9780 would signal that bears are back in control. As long as price is below 1.9964, the longer term turn bearish bias is intact.
Strategy: Bearish now, against 1.9964, target TBD

Commentary: The USDCHF reversed last week just before the 100% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145 at 1.2481. We wrote last week that “since the USDCHF has stalled just below the 100% extension (1.2481), be wary of a pullback towards. A small c wave is expected to bring price back to the former 4th wave at 1.2372. This is a good point to either add to longs or initiate longs.” The USDCHF may have more downside potential than initially thought. Additional support is at 1.2350 and 1.2311 (38.2%-50% of 1.2145-1.2476).
Strategy: Move to flat (previously bullish)

Commentary: We still maintain that “the 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance this week.” Friday’s low at 1.0601 is the bottom of wave b within the larger wave 4.

Strategy: Bullish, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800

Commentary: Our assumption is that a correction ended at .8332, which is the 100% extension of .8476-.8365/.8447. We wrote last week that “once we see evidence of an impulse rally, we will get bullish against the swing low (which is .8332 now). A rally through .8447 warrants bullish action.” The rally fom last week’s low is is impulsive, and strongly indicates that at least one more 5 wave rally is expected with .8332 remaining intact. We are keeping risk confined to .8396 (which is the low of wave ii).
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8396 target TBD

Commentary: From Friday: “The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggests that at least one more leg lower will occur.  An irregular flat correction may be unfolding from .7465.  Potential reversal points are .7551 and .7571 (the 50% and 61.8% of .7637-.7465).  We are bearish from .7535 and targeting .7262, which is the 161.8% extension of .7637-.7465/.7540.  The 100% extension is at .7368 and may also be support so keep risk tight if price falls below .7400.  In summary, we are looking for a spike above .7540 before price reverses and heads lower.”  The high today was .7571 so our wave count is tracking nicely.  The bearish targets are revised to .7399 and .7293 (which are the 100% and 161.8% extensions of .7637-.7540/.7571.
Strategy:  Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262.

*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:42

Commentary: The bounce from 1.3261 has been stronger than expected and looks impulsive, thus we see bullish potential. Support is at today’s low of 1.3375 and potential resistance is 1.3441/90, which is the area bound by the 61.8% and 78.6% of 1.3552-1.3261. The longer term bearish bias is intact as long as price remains below 1.3552.

Strategy: None

Commentary: “It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few months. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70. In the short term, the USDJPY is tracing out a small 4th wave that should remain above 122.82.
Strategy: Align with uptrend at 122.90, against 121.81, targeting 128.00

Commentary: We wrote last week that “the decline from 1.9964 is a clean 5 wave affair and an a-b-c correction is unfolding from 1.9621. This correction should be complete near 1.9814/33. 1.9814 is where wave c would equal wave a and 1.9833 is the 61.8% of 1.9964-1.9621. Aggressive short term traders can look to trade the small c wave higher towards 1.9830 with 1.9655 as risk. We are looking to get bearish on either a break below 1.9621 or a rally to 1.9814.” We are bearish now, against 1.9964, targeting a break of 1.9621 and potentially much lower levels.
Strategy: Bearish now, against 1.9964, target TBD

Commentary: The USDCHF reversed last week just before the 100% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145 at 1.2481. We wrote last week that “since the USDCHF has stalled just below the 100% extension (1.2481), be wary of a pullback towards. A small c wave is expected to bring price back to the former 4th wave at 1.2372. This is a good point to either add to longs or initiate longs.” The pair is just above this level. The longer term bullish structure is intact above 1.2145
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.2145, targeting 1.2500 and 1.2700 (add to position at 1.2372)

Commentary: We still maintain that “the 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance this week.” Friday’s low at 1.0601 is the bottom of wave b within the larger wave 4. Price is above the 21 day SMA for the first time since March 20th.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800

Commentary: Our assumption is that a correction ended at .8332, which is the 100% extension of .8476-.8365/.8447. We wrote last week that “once we see evidence of an impulse rally, we will get bullish against the swing low (which is .8332 now). A rally through .8447 warrants bullish action.” The rally fom last week’s low is is impulsive, and strongly indicates that at least one more 5 wave rally is expected with .8332 remaining intact. Support should be strong at the 61.8% of .8332-.8451 at .8377. We will look for a top following a rally through.8476.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8332 target TBD

Commentary: From Friday: “The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggests that at least one more leg lower will occur.  An irregular flat correction may be unfolding from .7465.  Potential reversal points are .7551 and .7571 (the 50% and 61.8% of .7637-.7465).  We are bearish from .7535 and targeting .7262, which is the 161.8% extension of .7637-.7465/.7540.  The 100% extension is at .7368 and may also be support so keep risk tight if price falls below .7400.  In summary, we are looking for a spike above .7540 before price reverses and heads lower.”  The high today was .7571 so our wave count is tracking nicely.  The bearish targets are revised to .7399 and .7293 (which are the 100% and 161.8% extensions of .7637-.7540/.7571.
Strategy:  Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262.

*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:43

Commentary: The EURUSD remains at the important juncture that we discussed yesterday. We’ll focus on the short term structure today. If the EURUSD has rolled over from an important top, then we will look for 1.3373 to hold as resistance. This is the former 4th wave extreme (6/08 high) and also the 38.2% of 1.3552-1.3261.

Strategy: We are looking to get bearish at 1.3369

Commentary: It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few months. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70. In the short term, the USDJPY appears to be in a small 3rd wave within a 5 wave sequence that began at 120.75. A wave 3 is in progress and close to complete from 120.76. We are expecting a 4th wave to occur in a correction and for support to be strong near 122.82. The trend is bullish.
Strategy: Align with uptrend at 122.90, against 121.81, targeting 128.00

Commentary: The decline from 1.9964 is a clean 5 wave affair and an a-b-c correction is unfolding from 1.9621. This correction should be complete near 1.9814/33. 1.9814 is where wave c would equal wave a and 1.9833 is the 61.8% of 1.9964-1.9621. Aggressive short term traders can look to trade the small c wave higher towards 1.9830 with 1.9655 as risk. We are looking to get bearish on either a break below 1.9621 or a rally to 1.9814.
Strategy: Bearish on break of 1.9621 or a rally to 1.9814.

Commentary: Longer term, the daily close above the trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs instills confidence in the bullish bias and a measured objective is at the 100% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145 at 1.2481. From an EW perspective, the rally from 1.2145 is the 3rd of a 3rd wave rally, which often produce the most powerful moves. A rally through the mentioned 1.2481 level gives scope to an a confluence of Fibonacci targets at 1.2687/89 (100% of 1.1877-1.2571/1.1993 and 161.8% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145). Since the USDCHF has stalled just below the 100% extension (1.2481), be wary of a pullback towards. A small c wave is expected to bring price back to the former 4th wave at 1.2372. This is a good point to either add to longs or initiate longs.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.2145, targeting 1.2500 and 1.2700 (add to position at 1.2372)

Commentary: The 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance in 11 trading days. Corrections often unfold in a-b-c form, so we are treating the 1.0548-1.0711 rally as wave a in an a-b-c correction. Wave b may be underway now and could push into the 1.0583-1.0610 area. We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Commentary: A double zigzag from .8476 may be complete at .8332, which is the 100% extension of .8476-.8365/.8447. Still, lack of an impulse rally from the low has us on the defensive for now. Once we see evidence of an impulse rally, we will get bullish against the swing low (which is .8332 now). A rally through .8447 warrants bullish action. .8319 and .8282 are potential support levels (50% and 61.8% of .8162-.8476).
Strategy: Flat now, getting bullish above .8447, against swing low (.8359 now), target TBD

Commentary:  The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggests that at least one more leg lower will occur.  An irregular flat correction may be unfolding from .7465.  Potential reversal points are .7551 and .7571 (the 50% and 61.8% of .7637-.7465).  We are bearish from .7535 and targeting .7262, which is the 161.8% extension of .7637-.7465/.7540.  The 100% extension is at .7368 and may also be support so keep risk tight if price falls below .7400.  In summary, we are looking for a spike above .7540 before price reverses and heads lower.
Strategy:  Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262.
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:45

Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.2145, targeting 1.2500 and 1.2700 (add to position at 1.2372)

Commentary: The 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance in 11 trading days. Corrections often unfold in a-b-c form, so we are treating the 1.0548-1.0711 rally as wave a in an a-b-c correction. Wave b may be underway now and could push into the 1.0583-1.0610 area. We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Commentary: The AUDUSD remains in its corrective pattern, which is a larger 4th wave. The 3 wave structure may be complete at .8359, but with price so close to this level, it is possible that a dip below to the support zone bound by the 100% extension of wave a abd the 38.2% of .8162-.8476 at .8336/56 will occur before an impulsive rally takes place. Either way, risk is to the upside and a break above .8447 would confirm that higher prices lie ahead.
Strategy: Flat now, getting bullish above .8447, against swing low (.8359 now), target TBD

Commentary:  The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggests that at least one more leg lower will occur.  An irregular flat correction may be unfolding from .7465.  Potential reversal points are .7551 and .7571 (the 50% and 61.8% of .7637-.7465).  We are bearish from .7535 and targeting .7262, which is the 161.8% extension of .7637-.7465/.7540.  The 100% extension is at .7368 and may also be support so keep risk tight if price falls below .7400.  In summary, we are looking for a spike above .7540 before price reverses and heads lower.
Strategy:  Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262.

*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:46

Commentary: The break under the 100 day SMA is significant as the EURUSD has traded north of this moving average for all of 2007 (since November 2006 actually). The EURUSD is at the 100% extension of 1.3552-1.3392/1.3552 at 1.3264 right now. As we wrote on Friday (http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/weekly_chart_analysis/1_3680_Top_Confirmed_With_Break_1181570303106.html) “If the larger bearish bias is correct, then price should drop close to 1.3086 next week or the week thereafter. On the other hand, if 1.3264 holds and price rallies back to 1.3392, then the long term bearish outlook is most likely incorrect and we would switch to the alternate count which has an ending diagonal unfolding from 1.2482.” In other words we are waiting for a drop to 1.3086 and a pullback in a 4th wave before aligning with the bear trend.

Strategy: None

Commentary: It was wring to be bearish at 122.13 as price has blasted through this level. Price is just below resistance from the 100% extension of 120.76-121.81/121.47 at 122.52 – this point is just above the 61.8% retracement of 135.13-101.67 at 122.35. The 161.8% extension is at 123.17 and is potential resistance as well. Still, there is significant resistance near 128.00/70. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70. This push could be a breakout on the way to the 128.00 figure but given the presence of the 61.8% retracement at 122.35, we prefer to wait for a clear 3 wave pullback (intraday) before getting bullish.
Strategy: None

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “given the size of the correction from 1.9621, it is likely that 1.9954-1.9621 was the initial 5 waves down (larger wave 1). This places Cable in wave 2 higher, which should end between 1.9788 and 1.9827. 1.9788 is especially attractive because it is the 50% of 1.9954-1.9621 and the previous 4th wave is at 1.9791.” Price reversed at 1.9780 but it takes a break below 1.9621 in order to confirm that wave 3 is down is underway.
Strategy: Bearish on break of 1.9621

Commentary: The daily close above the trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs instills confidence in the bullish bias and a measured objective is at the 100% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145 at 1.2481. As mentioned Friday, this line is also the neckline from a 13 month head and shoulders pattern. From an EW perspective, the rally from 1.2145 is the 3rd of a 3rd wave rally, which often produce the most powerful moves. A rally through the mentioned 1.2481 level gives scope to an a confluence of Fibonacci targets at 1.2687/89 (100% of 1.1877-1.2571/1.1993 and 161.8% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145). These are targets that should be reached within 2 to 4 weeks. Near term, risk of a pullback is high as it looks like a clean 5 waves is close to complete. Support should be strong near 1.2372
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.2145, targeting 1.2500 and 1.2700 (add to position at 1.2372)

Commentary: The 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance in 11 trading days. Corrections often unfold in a-b-c form, so we are treating the 1.0548-1.0711 rally as wave a in an a-b-c correction. Wave b may be underway now and could push into the 1.0583-1.0610 area. We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a small c wave is expected to unfold from .8447 (or close to it). Measured objectives are at .8336 and .8267 (100% and 161.8% extensions of .8467-.8365/.8447). The longer term structure remains bullish though.” An a-b-c correction may have ended at .8359 though and we will turn bullish on a rally through .8447.
Strategy: Flat now, getting bullish above .8447, against .8359, targt TBD

Commentary: We are bearish from .7535 and targeting .7262, which is the 161.8% extension of .7637-.7465/.7540. The 100% extension is at .7368 and may also be support so keep risk tight if price falls below .7400.
Strategy: Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:47

Commentary: The inability to hold above the 6/1 low at 1.3392 and the break under the trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 lows indicates additional bearish potential. The next support level is the 100% extension of 1.3680-1.3392/1.3552 at 1.3264. Former support at 1.3392 should be solid resistance now. The pair has stalled at the 100 day SMA, a break under here would be significant as the EURUSD has traded north of this moving average for all of 2007. Very short term, the EURUSD may be in a small 4th wave that will lead to a drop below 1.3319 before the a 3 wave correction higher occurs. We will be looking for this correction to align with the downtrend. This scenario is depicted on the chart above.

Strategy: Waiting for a 3 wave setback in order to align with the downtrend.

Commentary: We remain bearish against 122.13 but the rally from 120.75 has been sharp and is close to the 78.6% of 122.13-120.75, so the pair needs to roll over soon. We are anticipating a move lower in a 3rd wave, below 120.75, towards 119.50. In summary, as long as 122.13 remains intact, we are bearish.
Strategy: Bearish Now, against 122.13, target TBD

Commentary: Cable has broken under the May low at 1.9676, negating the bullish setup and indicating additional bearish potential. More importantly, the pair has dropped under a support line that dates to April 2006. Given the size of the correction from 1.9621, it is likely that 1.9954-1.9621 was the initial 5 waves down (larger wave 1). This places Cable in wave 2 higher, which should end between 1.9788 and 1.9827. 1.9788 is especially attractive because it is the 50% of 1.9954-1.9621 and the previous 4th wave is at 1.9791. It is also possible that wave 2 is complete since is it possible to count an a-b-c from 1.9621 and the reversal occurred at the 38.2% (1.9748). 2nd waves tend to retrace more than 38.2% of wave 1 though, which is why we are being patient in taking bearish action.
Strategy: Getting bearish at 1.9788, against 1.9954, for a break below 1.9621

Commentary: The daily close above the trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs instills confidence in the bullish bias and a measured objective is at the 100% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145 at 1.2481. As mentioned Friday, this line is also the neckline from a 13 month head and shoulders pattern. From an EW perspective, the rally from 1.2145 is the 3rd of a 3rd wave rally, which often produce the most powerful moves. A rally through the mentioned 1.2481 level gives scope to an a confluence of Fibonacci targets at 1.2687/89 (100% of 1.1877-1.2571/1.1993 and 161.8% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145). These are targets that should be reached within 2 to 4 weeks. Near term, risk of a pullback is high as it looks like a clean 5 waves is close to complete.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.2145, targeting 1.2500 and 1.2700

Commentary: The 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance in 11 trading days. Corrections often unfold in a-b-c form, so we are treating the 1.0548-1.0711 rally as wave a in an a-b-c correction. Wave b may be underway now and could push into the 1.0583-1.0610 area. We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Commentary: We wrote here on Friday that “the decline from .8476 is in only 3 waves, which is corrective, so the trend remains bullish above .8365. However, RSI has declined from overbought on intraday charts and exhibits divergence on the daily, so it seem more likely that this is the beginning of a deeper correction. Yesterday’s long wick and key reversal day also favors the downside. Short term bearish opportunities exist as long as price is below .8443.” A small c wave is expected to unfold from .8447 (or close to it). Measured objectives are at .8336 and .8267 (100% and 161.8% extensions of .8467-.8365/.8447). The longer term structure remains bullish though.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:48

EURUSD

Commentary: The inability to hold above the 6/1 low at 1.3392 and the break under the trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 lows indicates additional bearish potential. The next support level is the 100% extension of 1.3680-1.3392/1.3552 at 1.3264. Former support at 1.3392 should be solid resistance now. The pair has stalled at the 100 day SMA, a break under here would be significant as the EURUSD has traded north of this moving average for all of 2007. Even if the pair does continue lower in the next few days, we prefer to wait for the larger 3 wave setback before aligning with the downtrend.

Strategy: Waiting for a 3 wave setback in order to align with the downtrend.
USDJPY

Commentary: We remain bearish against 122.13 but the rally from 120.75 has been sharp and is close to the 78.6% of 122.13-120.75, so the pair needs to roll over soon. We are anticipating a move lower in a 3rd wave, below 120.75, towards 119.50. In summary, as long as 122.13 remains intact, we are bearish.
Strategy: Bearish Now, against 122.13, target TBD
GBPUSD

Commentary: Cable has broken under the May low at 1.9676, negating the bullish setup and indicating additional bearish potential. More importantly, the pair has dropped under a support line that dates to April 2006. The next potential support level is the 100% extension of 2.0131-1.9676/1.9964 at 1.9509. A drop under 1.9621 will complete 5 waves down from 1.9964 and give scope to a corrective bounce that can be used to align with the downtrend.
Strategy: Look for a drop to a new low to be followed by a 3 wave correction – and an opportunity to align with downtrend
USDCHF

Commentary: Cable has broken under the May low at 1.9676, negating the bullish setup and indicating additional bearish potential. More importantly, the pair has dropped under a support line that dates to April 2006. The next potential support level is the 100% extension of 2.0131-1.9676/1.9964 at 1.9509. A drop under 1.9621 will complete 5 waves down from 1.9964 and give scope to a corrective bounce that can be used to align with the downtrend.
Strategy: Look for a drop to a new low to be followed by a 3 wave correction – and an opportunity to align with downtrend
USDCAD

Commentary: The 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance in 11 trading days. Corrections often unfold in a-b-c form, so we are treating the 1.0548-1.0711 rally as wave a in an a-b-c correction. Wave b may be underway now and could push into the 1.0583-1.0610 area. We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.
AUDUSD

Commentary: We wrote here on Friday that “the decline from .8476 is in only 3 waves, which is corrective, so the trend remains bullish above .8365. However, RSI has declined from overbought on intraday charts and exhibits divergence on the daily, so it seem more likely that this is the beginning of a deeper correction. Yesterday’s long wick and key reversal day also favors the downside. Short term bearish opportunities exist as long as price is below .8443.” A small c wave is expected to unfold from .8447 (or close to it). Measured objectives are at .8336 and .8267 (100% and 161.8% extensions of .8467-.8365/.8447). The longer term structure remains bullish though.
Strategy: Bearish now, against .8467, targeting .8353 and .8300
NZDUSD

Commentary: Kiwi has made a nasty reversal following Friday’s push through .7600. Very short term (15 min chart), there are 5 waves down from the top (.7637), which indicates additional bearish potential. We will look to align with bears on a setback at .7535 and are targeting the May low at .7238. .7637 is the line in the sand.
Strategy: Looking to get bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7238.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:50

Commentary:
The inability to hold above the 6/1 low at 1.3392 and the break under the trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 lows indicates additional bearish potential.
The next support level is the 100% extension of 1.3680-1.3392/1.3552 at 1.3264.
Former support at 1.3392 should be solid resistance now.
The pair has stalled at the 100 day SMA, a break under here would be significant as the EURUSD has traded north of this moving average for all of 2007.
Even if the pair dowes continue lower in the next few days, we prefer to wait for a 3 wave setback in order to align with the downtrend.

Strategy:
Waiting for a 3 wave setback in order to align with the downtrend.

Commentary:
We remain bearish against 122.13.
We mentioned yesterday that
“it is unclear whether or not the upward correction is complete” and that
“resistance is clustered from 121.44 to 121.83 (50%-78.6% of 122.13-120.75).
The USDJPY has stalled just above the 61.8% at 121.60 this morning but as long as 122.13 remains intact, we are bearish.
We are anticipating a move lower in a 3rd wave, below 120.75, towards 119.50.

Strategy:
Bearish Now, against 122.13, target TBD

Commentary:
Cable has broken under the May low at 1.9676, negating the bullish setup and indicating additional bearish potential.
More importantly, the pair has dropped under a support line that dates toApril 2006.
The next potential support level is the 100% extension of 2.0131-1.9676/1.9964 at 1.9509.
Any rallies should be treated as an opportunity to align with the downtrend.
Initial resistance is at 1.9715

Strategy:
Bearish at 1.9715, against 1.9791, targeting 1.9509 and 1.9228

Commentary: The USDCHF has reversed course in impressive fashion and the break above 1.2329 suggests that the USDCHF is headed towards the 100% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145 at 1.2481.
The USDCHF is right at a trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs.
A daily close above here would bolster the bullish outlook.
This line is also the neckline from a 13 month head and shoulders pattern, which has much more bullish implications.

Strategy:
Bullish now, against 1.2145, targeting 1.2500

Commentary:
The first real rally attempt in over a month is taking place in the USDCAD.
Remember that we are viewing the rally from the low as a correction, so price action could be choppy for the next few weeks.
Ultimately, we look for this large 4th wave to challenge the zone bounce by the 23.6%-38.2% Fibonacci levels of 1.1825-1.0548 at 1.0849/1.1036.
We will look to align with the 5th lower at that point.
However, there is certainly a chance to trade from the bull side until then.
Support should be strong at 1.0606 but we are waiting until we see a tradable pattern before taking action.

Strategy: None

Commentary:
The decline from .8476 is in only 3 waves, which is corrective, so the trend remains bullish above .8365.
However, RSI has declined from overbought on intraday charts and exhibits divergence on the daily, so it seem more likely that this is the beginning of a deeper correction.
Yesterday’s long wick and key reversal day also favors the downside.
Short term bearish opportunities exist as long as price is below .8443.
The 100% extension of .8476-.8386/.8443 at .8353 is potential support as is the area bound by the 161.8% extension and the 61.8% of .8162-.8476 at .8282/97.

Strategy: Bearish now, against .8443, targeting .8353 and .8300

Commentary:
Kiwi is in the same position as the AUDUSD as it seems likely that a deeper correction will occur.
Yesterday’s candle is identical to that of the AUDUSD and daily RSI also exhibits divergence.
.7463 and .7406, the 100% and 161.8% extension of .7573-.7481/.7555 are potential short term support levels.
Short term bearish opportunities exist below .7555.

Strategy:
None

*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.
JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.
JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.
An example is below.
Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.
The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:51

EURUSD

Commentary: The EURUSD bullish scenario is playing out but price needs to remain above 1.3391 for us to keep looking higher. The period of softeness from 1.3552 is most likely a second wave pullback and Fibonacci support rests between 1.3453 and 1.3491 (38.2%-61.8% of 1.3392-1.3552). We’ll reiterate what we have for the past few weeks - be careful trading from the long side as the sentiment backdrop gives scope to a larger reversal. Since price pattern (the 3 wave drop from 1.3680 is the dominant pattern and is bullish) has yet to confirm such a reversal, so it is wise to remain bullish.

Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.3391, targeting above 1.3680.
USDJPY

Commentary: We remain bearish against 122.13. The clear break of the trendline drawn off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows and a 5 wave decline from 122.13 gives scope to more losses. The rally from 120.75 is most likely a second wave in a larger 5 wave decline. However, it is unclear whether or not the upward correction is complete. Resistance is clustered from 121.44 to 121.83 (50%-78.6% of 122.13-120.75). Potential trendline resistance is at 121.50 and the former support line (off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows) is near 121.60 (which is th 61.8% of 122.13-120.75).
Strategy: Bearish Now, against 122.13, target TBD
GBPUSD

Commentary: Similar to the EURUSD, Cable continues to exhibit impulsive characteristics to the upside. A 3 wave correction appears to be nearing an end. Support should be strong at 1.9821, which is the 61.8% of 1.9732-1.9964. Rallying through 1.9905 would confirm the bullish bias. We are confident in the bullish case above 1.9732 due to the 3 wave correction that took place from 2.0131-1.9676. Price must remain above 1.9732 for the bullish structure to remain intact. If 1.9732 is broken, then the alternate count would be favored, which has an a-b-c correction ending at 1.9964.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.9732, targeting 2.0131
USDCHF

Commentary: Trendline resistance (drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs) has capped gains just above 1.2300. With shorter term trendline support failing to hold this week, it is likely that the USDCHF is headed lower. Ultimately, we are looking for a test of 1.1877. Short term, resistance should be strong near 1.2258, which is the 61.8% of 1.2329-1.2145. 1.2328 must hold in order for the bearish structure to remain intact. 8 month trendline resistance should be strong near 1.2300.
Strategy: Bearish at 1.2196, against 1.2328, targeting 1.1877
USDCAD

Commentary: The USDCAD continues to drop below every measured objective for the end of large larger wave 3. Still, the next few weeks should see the USDCAD consolidate / pullback towards 1.0849/1.1036 (23.6% - 38.2% of 1.1825-1.0548) in wave 4 before wave 5 drops to a new low. We’ll watch the form of the correction that unfolds so that we can align with wave 5 lower. As soon as we see impulsive upside action, we’ll commentate on short term bullish opportunities.
Strategy: None
AUDUSD

Commentary: With 5 waves higher from .8162 and a larger 5 wave structure from the October low at .7415, risk has shifted to the downside and a test of former 4th wave support at .8397 is in order. If price does continue higher, then look for resistance near a potential resistance line drwn off of the December and April highs. That line is near .8570. A deeper correction is possible and we’ll have to watch the form of the correction, which should last at least a few days, before making a stand.
Strategy: None
NZDUSD

Commentary: Kiwi is in the same position as the AUDUSD as bulls remain in control. Potential trendline resistance is near .7650/75. The NZDUSD is vulnerable to a pullback though as RSI is overbought on every timeframe from weekly on down. The trend remains up as long as price is above today’s low of .7485.
Strategy: None


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:53

EURUSD

Commentary:  The EURUSD bullish scenario is playing out as 5 waves up are visible from 1.3392.  The period of softeness from 1.3552 is most likely a second wave pullback and Fibonacci support rests between 1.3453 and 1.3491 (38.2%-61.8% of 1.3392-1.3552).  We are looking to align with the uptrend at 1.3475 (previous 4th wave low).  We’ll reiterate what we have for the past few weeks - be careful trading from the long side as the sentiment backdrop gives scope to a larger reversal.  Since price pattern (the 3 wave drop from 1.3680 is the dominant pattern and is bullish) has yet to confirm such a reversal, so it is wise to remain bullish.
Strategy:  Aligning with uptrend at 1.3475, against 1.3391, targeting above 1.3680.
USDJPY

Commentary:  We are bearish on the USDJPY and price action is telling us that that we are correct in our position.  The clear break of the trendline drawn off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows and a 5 wave decline from 122.13 gives scope to more losses.  The entire rally from 115.14 may be a double zigzag (W-X-Y – shown on the last few day’s charts) as well.  Any rally should unfold correctively (3 waves) and resistance should be strong near 121.46 (prior 4th wave high).  We view this as an opportunity to get aggressively bearish.
Strategy:  Bearish at 121.40, against 122.40, target TBD
GBPUSD

Commentary:  Similar to the EURUSD, Cable continues to exhibit impulsive characteristics to the upside.  A 3 wave correction is unfolding from 1.9964 and is most likely a small 4th wave (see labels above).  Support should be strong near 1.9898, after which a thrust to a new high is the favored view (in a small 5th wave) to complete a larger 3rd wave.  Watch out for round number resistance at 2.0000 as well as the 161.8% extension of 1.9676-1.9898/1.9732 at 2.0091.  The bullish view is favored above 1.9816 (5/31 high and wave i of 3 high).
Strategy:  Bullish now, against 1.9676, targeting 2.0131
USDCHF

Commentary: Trendline resistance (drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs) has capped gains just above 1.2300. With shorter term trendline support failing to hold yesterday, it is likely that the USDCHF is headed lower.  Coming under 1.2197 bolsters this view.  Ultimately, we are looking for a test of 1.1877.
Strategy:  Bearish at 1.2196, against 1.2328, targeting 1.1877
USDCAD

Commentary:  The USDCAD continues to drop below every measured objective for the end of large larger wave 3.  Still, the next few weeks should see the USDCAD consolidate / pullback towards 1.0849/1.1036 (23.6% - 38.2% of 1.1825-1.0548) in wave 4 before wave 5 drops to a new low.  We’ll watch the form of the correction that unfolds so that we can align with wave 5 lower.  As soon as we see impulsive upside action, we’ll commentate on short term bullish opportunities.  For now, it looks like 1.0574 should remain intact until at least a test of the 100% extension of 1.0548-1.0636/1.0574 at 1.0661.  Reward to risk is poor here and we do not see this as an opportunity (chart above is 15 minute).
Strategy: None
AUDUSD

Commentary:  With 5 waves higher from .8162, risk has shifted to the downside and a test of former 4th wave support at .8354 is in order.  A deeper correction is possible and we’ll have to watch the form of the correction, which should last at least a few days, before making a stand.  We’ve been bullish since .8216 and are moving to the sidelines now.
Strategy: None
NZDUSD

Commentary:  Kiwi is in the same position as the AUDUSD.  That is, 5 waves up from .7237 leave the NZDUSD vulnerable to a corrective move lower.  Given that this could be the end of a much larger 5 wave rally (from .5927), a very sizeable correction and reversal opportunity is at the forefront.  In fact, the decline from .7552 looks impulsive.  We are willing to get bearish now, against .7552, with a target TBD.  Any retracement is an opportunity to align for a reversal.  .7518, .7533, and .7544 are potential resistance.
Strategy:  Bearish now, against .7552, target TBD


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:54

EURUSD

Commentary: The EURUSD bullish scenario is playing out but bulls must contend with potential trendline resistance from the 4/30 and 5/16 highs. That line is just above current price. It is possible that there are 5 waves up from 1.3392. Support should be strong at the wave 4 low of 1.3475. A strong rally in wave 3 should be then next move of consequence. 1.3392 must hold for us to remain bullish.

Strategy: Aligning with uptrend at 1.3475, against 1.3391, targeting above 1.3680.
USDJPY

Commentary: Coming under the confluence of the trendline drawn off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows near 121.40 would signal a reversal. In this case, we would be bearish against the swing high (currently 122.13). The entire rally from 115.14 may be a double zigzag correction. The rally from 117.60 (wave Y) would equal wave W (115.14-119.84) at 122.30. This is extremely close to the actual high at 122.13. Probability is high that the USDJPY is headed lower from current price. We’ll watch the decline to gauge bearish potential.
Strategy: Bearish at 121.40, against 122.40, target TBD
GBPUSD

Commentary: Similar to the EURUSD, Cable continues to exhibit impulsive characteristics to the upside. The GBPUSD is nearing potential resistnce from the 100% extension of 1.9676-1.9898 / 1.9732 at 1.9954. A rally through here exposes the 161.8% extension at 2.0091. Remember, we are expecting a high to be registered above 2.0131 before a multi-month top is put in place.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.9676, targeting 2.0131
USDCHF

Commentary: Trendline resistance (drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs) has capped gains just above 1.2300. With shorter term trendline support failing to hold yesterday, it is likely that the USDCHF is headed lower. Coming under 1.2197 bolsters this view. Ultimately, we are looking for a test of 1.1877.
Strategy: Bearish at 1.2196, against 1.2328, targeting 1.1877
USDCAD

Commentary: The USDCAD continues to drop below every measured objective for the end of large larger wave 3. Still, the next few weeks should see the USDCAD consolidate / pullback towards 1.0849/1.1036 (23.6% - 38.2% of 1.1825-1.0548) in wave 4 before wave 5 drops to a new low. We’ll watch the form of the correction that unfolds so that we can align with wave 5 lower.
Strategy: None
AUDUSD

Commentary: We have maintained that “the break through short term trendline resistance following the 3 wave correction from .8390 sets the stage for a re-test of .8390 (and likely break above in a 5th wave).” Price is right at .8390 and exceeding this level satisfies minimum expectations for the end of wave 5. However, wave 5 is likely to extend much higher. Measured objectives for the end of the rally from .8162 are at .8591 and .8726.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8162, targeting a break above .8390
NZDUSD

Commentary: Kiwi has been on a tear. We wrote last week that “similar to the Aussie, we are expecting a break above .7491 in a 5th wave.” This break has happened and the NZDUSD trades north of .7500 for the first time since June of 1982. The chart above shows an extended first wave from .5927, and the rally from .7237 is the 5th wave. A potential terminus is the resistance line shown above, near .7640.
Strategy: None


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:55

EUR/USD

Commentary: EURUSD has made its way all the way to 1.3490 from the depth of Friday lows at 1.3391 however now the pair faces massive overhead resistance at 1.3500 signified by the triple top at that level. If 1.3500 zone if cleared the pair is free to tackle the 1.3600 barrier and will have formed a very bullish base that could signify a challenge of the all time highs at 1.3682.

Strategy: Until the pattern clears up, we are looking for opportunities elsewhere
USD/JPY

Commentary: USDJPY has broken its most recent trendline sending a bearish signal on the intraday charts as bears have clearly taken control of the oder flow. The nearest support level comes in at 121.00 followed by 119.50 which would represent a substantial free fal for the pair. A break of 122.15 negates the bearish outlook but near term charts show that momentum is with the bears.
Strategy: Bearish on a break below mentioned trendline
GBP/USD

Commentary: GBPUSD has shown the most strength today overcoming resistance at the 1.9900 figure with the critical 2.0000 level now in its sights. Pound strength has been parabolic as it has nearly verticalized from 1.9750 over the past 48 hours. The pair now sees support at three descending levels of 1.9764, 19733 and 1.9677 and only a break of the later completely negates the bullish view
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.9676, targeting 2.0131
USD/CHF

Commentary: Swissie has turned bullish with USDCHF clearly failing at 1.2333 level as pair has drafted a possible double top that now targets 1.2123 as its final destination. Most immediate support can now be seen at 1.2200 but only a brak of the 1.2333 line negates the bearish bias.
Strategy: Bearish now, against 1.2333, targeting break below 1.2123
USD/CAD

Commentary: As Jamie Saettele has frequently discussed, the USDCAD continues to drop below every measured objective for the end of large larger wave 3. The last of these was the 161.8% of 1.1168-1.0965/1.1061 at 1.0733. The next measurement for wave 3 is where wave v of 5 of 3 would equal wave i of 5 of 3 at 1.0666. We have refrained from trying to catch this bottom because there is no evidence that a bottom is in place. The most aggressive trader may look to establish a long position on a rally through the 5/30 high at 1.0756.
Strategy: None
AUD/USD

Commentary: The break through short term trendline resistance following the 3 wave correction from .8390 sets the stage for a re-test of .8390 (and likely break above in a 5th wave). Support should be strong at .8211 and price must remain above .8162 in order for us to remain bulls. We’ll watch the form of the advance and publish bullish targets when price action dictates.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8162, targeting a break above .8390
NZD/USD

Commentary: Kiwi looks just like the AUDUSD. The 3 wave correction that ended at .7237 is bullish and Kiwi is breaking through a resistance line drawn off of the 4/26 and 5/15 highs. Support should be strong at .7343 and price must remain above .7237 in order for us to remain bulls. Similar to the Aussie, we are expecting a break above .7491 in a 5th wave.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .7237, targeting a break above .7491


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:56

EURUSD

Commentary: Repeat - the decline from 1.3680 has been choppy and certainly appears corrective. However, the series of lower highs and lower lows is, by definition, a downtrend and could be either a series of 1st and 2nd waves lower or a diagonal (labels not shown) in the 1st wave position. Short term, reward/risk favors longs since it remains possible that an A-B-C correction (shown on chart) ended at 1.3403, but watch potential resistance in the 1.3509/74 zone (38.2% - 61.8% of 1.3680-1.3403) for a reversal.

Strategy: Until the pattern clears up, we are looking for opportunities elsewhere
USDJPY

Commentary: Coming under the confluence of the trendline drawn off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows near 121.20 would signal a reversal. In this case, we would be bearish against the swing high (currently 121.88). The entire rally from 115.14 may be a double zigzag correction. We mentioned yesterday that “our working assumption is that the USDJPY will thrust higher (above 121.88) following more consolidation between 121.29 and 121.75 before a reversal.” This is what has happened, the question is where does the thrust end? The 100% extension of 115.14-119.84/117.60 is at 122.30. This is a possible reversal point.
Strategy: Bearish on a break below mentioned trendline
GBPUSD

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the bullish scenario that we have been focusing on is playng out. The 2nd wave dropped to 1.9732 and our working assumption is that wave 3 (higher) is underway.” 1.9676 must hold in order for the bullish scenario to remain intact. A drop under 1.9676 exposes the 4/9 low at 1.9589. Preferably, 1.9732 holds for bulls.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.9676, targeting 2.0131
USDCHF

Commentary: With the USDCHF holding trendline support and with the decline from 1.2329 unfolding in a clear 3 wave correction, we are bullish against 1.2197 and looking for a break above 1.2329 and eventual test of channel resistance. The upper end of the channel is currently at 1.2402 and increases about 12 pips per day.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.2197, targeting break above 1.2329
USDCAD

Commentary: The USDCAD continues to drop below every measured objective for the end of large larger wave 3. The last of these was the 161.8% of 1.1168-1.0965/1.1061 at 1.0733. The next measurement for wave 3 is where wave v of 5 of 3 would equal wave i of 5 of 3. This is at 1.0666, virtually where yesterday’s low is. We have refrained from trying to catch this bottom because there is no evidence that a bottom is in place. The most aggressive trader may look to establish a long position on a rally through the 5/30 high at 1.0756.
Strategy: None
AUDUSD

Commentary: The break through short term trendline resistance following the 3 wave correction from .8390 sets the stage for a re-test of .8390 (and likely break above in a 5th wave). Support should be strong at .8211 and price must remain above .8162 in order for us to remain bulls. We’ll watch the form of the advance and publish bullish targets when price action dictates.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8162, targeting a break above .8390
NZDUSD

Commentary:  Kiwi looks just like the AUDUSD.  The 3 wave correction that ended at .7237 is bullish and Kiwi is breaking through a resistance line drawn off of the 4/26 and 5/15 highs.  Support should be strong at .7343 and price must remain above .7237 in order for us to remain bulls.  Similar to the Aussie, we are expecting a break above .7491 in a 5th wave.
Strategy:  Bullish now, against .7237, targeting a break above .7491
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:57

EURUSD

Commentary:  The EURUSD has gone nowhere since 5 pm (NY) yesterday, trading between 1.3423 and 1.3446.  This is usually the type of price action we see prior to the release of the employmwent situation.  Where do we go from here?  The decline from 1.3680 has been choppy and certainly appears corrective.  However, the series of lower highs and lower lows is, by definition, a downtrend and could be either a series of 1st and 2nd waves lower or a diagonal (labels not shown) in the 1st wave position.  Short term, reward/risk favors longs since it remains possible that an A-B-C correction (shown on chart) ended at 1.3403, but watch potential resistance in the 1.3509/74 zone (38.2% - 61.8% of 1.3680-1.3403) for a reversal.

Strategy:  Until the pattern clears up, we are looking for opportunities elsewhere
USDJPY

Commentary:  No change from yesterday: “It looks like the USDJPY may be in a small triangle (wave iv of Y) that will give lead to a terminal thrust above 121.88 before the reversal.  Coming under the confluence of the trendline drawn off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows / 5/25 low at 120.85 would signal a reversal.  In this case, we would be bearish against the swing high (currently 121.88).  The entire rally from 115.14 may be a double zigzag correction. Our working assumption is that the USDJPY will thrust higher (above 121.88) following more consolidation between 121.29 and 121.75 before a reversal.  This remains the outlook unless the trendline is broken.“
Strategy:  Bearish on a break below mentioned trendline
GBPUSD

Commentary:  No change from yesterday: “The bullish scenario that we have been focusing on is playng out.  We wrote two days ago that a second wave is currently unfolding that could draw price back to the 61.8% of 1.9676-1.9898 at 1.9761.  This would allow us to align with the bull trend.  The 2nd wave dropped to 1.9732 yesterday.  Our working assumption is that wave 3 (higher) is underway.  A rally through former support at 1.9790 would confirm the bullish count.  1.9676 must hold in order for us to be proved correct.  A drop under 1.9676 has bearish implications that we’ll address if price action dictates.”
Strategy:  Bullish if 1.9791 trades before 1.9676, against 1.9676 (we’ll publish targets if price action confirms our bias)
USDCHF

Commentary:  With the USDCHF holding trendline support and with the decline from 1.2329 unfolding in a clear 3 wave correction, we are bullish against 1.2197 and looking for a break above 1.2329 and eventual test of channel resistance.  The upper end of the channel is currently at 1.2402 and increases about 12 pips per day.
Strategy:  Bullish now, against 1.2197, targeting break above 1.2329
USDCAD

Commentary:  The USDCAD continues to drop below every measured objective for the end of large larger wave 3.  The last of these was the 161.8% of 1.1168-1.0965/1.1061 at 1.0733.  The next measurement for wave 3 is where wave v of 5 of 3 would equal wave i of 5 of 3.  This is at 1.0666, 19 pips below yesterday’s low at 1.0685.  We have refrained from trying to catch this bottom because there is no evidence that a bottom is in place.  The most aggressive trader may look to establish a long position on a rally through yesterday’s high at 1.0756.
Strategy: None
AUDUSD

Commentary:  The break through short term trendline resistance following the 3 wave correction from .8390 sets the stage for a re-test of .8390 (and likely break above in a 5th wave).  Support should be strong at .8211 and price must remain above .8162 in order for us to remain bulls.  We’ll watch the form of the advance and publish bullish targets when price action dictates.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .8162, targeting a break above .8390
NZDUSD

Commentary:  Kiwi looks just like the AUDUSD.  The 3 wave correction that ended at .7237 is bullish and Kiwi is breaking through a resistance line drawn off of the 4/26 and 5/15 highs.  Support should be strong at .7299 and price must remain above .7237 in order for us to remain bulls.  Similar to the Aussie, we are expecting a break above .7491 in a 5th wave.
Strategy:  Bullish now, against .7237, targeting a break above .7491

*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend.  JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data.  JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data.  An example is below.  Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend.  The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:58

EURUSD

Commentary:  The drop below 1.3420 destroys the short term impulse pattern that we thought was unfolding.  This leaves 3 waves up from 1.3410, which is corrective.  One of two scenarios is likely to play out from here.
1.) A drop below 1.3410 leads to a test of trendline support near 1.3360.  A drop under there indicates additional bearish potential.
2.) The EURUSD rallies without first dropping under 1.3410 and traces out either a flat (in which case resistance is at 1.3526) or a triangle (in which case resistance is at 1.3480).  The flat scenario is more bearish.
The scenarios proposed above are all bearish and we are looking lower as long as price remains below the potential resistance line drawn off of the 4/30 and 5/16 highs.  Price remains trapped below the 55 day SMA as well (on a daily closing basis).

Strategy:  Until the pattern clears up, we are looking for opportunities elsewhere
USDJPY

Commentary:  It looks like the USDJPY may be in a small triangle (wave iv of Y) that will give lead to a terminal thrust above 121.88 before the reversal.  Coming under the confluence of the trendline drawn off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows / 5/25 low at 120.85 would signal a reversal.  In this case, we would be bearish against the swing high (currently 121.88).  The entire rally from 115.14 may be a double zigzag correction. Our working assumption is that the USDJPY will thrust higher (above 121.88) following more consolidation between 121.29 and 121.75 before a reversal.  This remains the outlook unless the trendline is broken.
Strategy:  Bearish on a break below mentioned trendline (in bold)
GBPUSD

Commentary:  The bullish scenario that we have been focusing on is playng out.  We wrote yesterday that “a second wave is currently unfolding that could draw price back to the 61.8% of 1.9676-1.9898 at 1.9761.  This would allow us to align with the bull trend.”  The 2nd wave dropped to 1.9735 this morning.  Our working assumption is that wave 3 (higher) is underway.  A rally through former support at 1.9790 would confirm the bullish count.  1.9676 must hold in order for us to be proved correct.  A drop under 1.9676 has bearish implications that we’ll address if price action dictates.
Strategy:  Bullish if 1.9791 trades before 1.9676, against 1.9676 (we’ll publish targets if price action confirms our bias)
USDCHF

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “we would like to see the pair touch channel support and hold before getting bullish against 1.2124.  If the support line fails to hold, then we’ll reassess the situation.” The confluence of the 61.8% of 1.2124-1.2230 / channel support near 1.2203 has held and we are bullish against 1.2197 targeting a break above 1.2329.
Strategy:  Bullish now, against 1.2197, targeting break above 1.2329
USDCAD

Commentary:  The USDCAD continues to drop below every measured objective for the end of large larger wave 3.  The last of these was the 161.8% of 1.1168-1.0965/1.1061 at 1.0733.  The next measurement for wave 3 is where wave v of 5 of 3 would equal wave i of 5 of 3.  This is at 1.0666, 19 pips below today’s low at 1.0685.  We have refrained from trying to catch this bottom because there is no evidence that a bottom is in place.  The most aggressive trader may look to establish a long position on a break above former support at 1.0776.
Strategy: None
AUDUSD

Commentary:  We maintain that a C wave decline is underway towards the 100% extension of .8390-.8168/.8349 at .8127.  Bears are in control as long as .8265 remains intact.  .8127 would be where wave C would equal wave A.  A break under .8168 would support our view.  The AUDUSD is testing resistance right now from a short term trendline drawn off of the 5/15 and 5/23 highs.
Strategy: Bearish against .8265 targeting .8127
NZDUSD

Commentary:  We maintain that a C wave lower is also unfolding from .7403 in Kiwi.  Wave C would equal wave A at .7161.  .7314 is short term resistance but the bearish structure remains intact below as long as price is below .7403.  In the 5 wave rally from.6719 to .7491, the 5th wave is extended.  5th wave extensions are sometimes fully retraced so there is the possibility that Kiwi does not find solid support until .7082 (close to the 50% of .6719-.7491).
Strategy:  Bearish against .7403 targeting .7161 and .7082.


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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-15 15:59

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “with the decline from the top looking corrective (as opposed to impulsive), and with the a and c legs of the correction close to equal (218 and 199 pips), there is potential for a sizeable rally as long as price turns higher from close to current levels. Although reward to risk favors longs here in the short term, we are wary of getting too aggressively bullish longer term due to the extreme sentiment (USD bearishness/Euro bullishness), as evidenced by the COT report. The favored wave count does indicate one more high above 1.3680 in a 5th wave before an impulsive decline occurs. We are willing to take a bullish stand against the swing low (1.3410) for an eventual retest of 1.3680. Intraday bullish divergence with oscillators on the hourly favors a turn higher as well.” Short term support should be strong at 1.3460/70 and we can raise our stop to 1.3420. The 161.8% extension of 1.3410-1.3470/1.3420 at 1.3517 could offer short term resistance.
Strategy: Bullish against 1.3420, targeting 1.3680

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that, “we expect a new high (above 121.86) followed by a reversal.” The USDJPY pushed to 121.88 Friday before coming off 70 pips. There is no sign of a reversal but coming under 121.18 before touching 121.59 would make the decline from 121.88 impulsive (5 waves down) and signal that lower prices lie ahead. The entire rally from 115.14 may be a double zigzag correction. We wish to get bearish on a decline below 121.18. Risk is 121.88 and we’ll have to watch how the decline unfolds before we can ‘limit’ profits.
Strategy: Bearish if 121.17 prints before 121.59, against 121.88, target TBD

Commentary: The bullish scenario that we have been focusing on is playng out as Cable pushed above 1.9892 this morning. The push is either a small degree 5th wave or the beginning of a larger 3rd wave. Either way, the outlook is bullish as long price remains above 1.9676. In the former scenario, a second wave is currently unfolding that could draw price back to the 61.8% of 1.9676-1.9898 at 1.9761. This would allow us to align with the bull trend. Short term support is also at today’s low of 1.9817. The pattern is not as clear as the EURUSD, therefore we think that the EURUSD offers better opportunities.
Strategy: Waiting for correction to get bullish against 1.9676 targeting a retest of 2.0131.

Commentary: We have continually stated that “potential support is at the confluence of the 61.8% of 1.2124-1.2230 / channel support near 1.2203. Former resistance at 1.2221 could act as support also. In fact, the decline from 1.2329 would equal the 1.2329-1.2239 decline at 1.2222. This intersects with channel support early next week. High reward/risk bullish opportunities come to the forefront at channel support.” The USDCHF is just above the cited levels now and we would like to see the pair touch channel support and hold before getting bullish against 1.2124. If the support line fails to hold, then we’ll reassess the situation.
Strategy: Establishing bullish position between 1.2200 and 1.2230 following tag of channel support, against 1.2124, targeting new highs (above 1.2329)

Commentary: The USDCD is close to putting in an intermediate term low. A measured objective for the end of this small degree 5th wave is at the 161.8% extension of 1.1168-1.0965/1.1061 at 1.0733 but a rally through 1.0869 would suggest that a low is in place at 1.0776. Expectations are for a larger 4th wave to bring price back near 1.1000/1.1168. Without concrete evidence of a low in place, and the fact that the upside is countertrend, we prefer to watch how the correction unfolds and look to get bearish for the eventual 5th wave decline to a new low. The corrective move higher is likely to unfold as a flat or a triangle (since the 2nd wave was a sharp correction).

Strategy: None

Commentary: We maintain that a C wave decline is underway towards the 100% extension of .8390-.8168/.8349 at .8127. Bears are in control as long as .8265 remains intact. .8127 would be where wave C would equal wave A. A break under .8168 would support our view. The AUDUSD is testing resistance right now from a short term trendline drawn off of the 5/15 and 5/23 highs.
Strategy: Bearish against .8265 targeting .8127

Commentary: We maintain that a C wave lower is also unfolding from .7403 in Kiwi. Wave C would equal wave A at .7161. .7314 is short term resistance but the bearish structure remains intact below as long as price is below .7403. In the 5 wave rally from.6719 to .7491, the 5th wave is extended. 5th wave extensions are sometimes fully retraced so there is the possibility that Kiwi does not find solid support until .7082 (close to the 50% of .6719-.7491).
Strategy: Bearish against .7403 targeting .7161 and .7082.


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