一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the decline from 1.4279 has unfolded as a correction (zigzag).  With the larger trend remaining up (as it has for some time), be sure to keep risk tight if dedicated to the bear side.  On the other hand, a cautious bullish bias is warranted against 1.4188 for a break of 1.4349.  A large ending diagonal might be unfolding in the 5th wave position within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3360.”  At this point the diagonal may be unfolding or the EURUSD may be about to turn lower from a double top.  So, if long, keep risk to 1.4188.  Coming under there would make us bearish (showing a possibly bearish count here).      
   
Strategy:  Remain bullish, against 1.4188, Target TBD.


Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the decline from 1.4279 has unfolded as a correction (zigzag).  With the larger trend remaining up (as it has for some time), be sure to keep risk tight if dedicated to the bear side.  On the other hand, a cautious bullish bias is warranted against 1.4188 for a break of 1.4349.  A large ending diagonal might be unfolding in the 5th wave position within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3360.”  At this point the diagonal may be unfolding or the EURUSD may be about to turn lower from a double top.  So, if long, keep risk to 1.4188.  Coming under there would make us bearish (showing a possibly bearish count here).      
   
Strategy:  Remain bullish, against 1.4188, Target TBD.


Commentary: Cable has been treacherous lately.  The pattern from an EW perspective is not clear in our mind, but the series of lower highs from 1.9651 indicates that the trend remains up.  Still, the overlapping nature of the rally from that point (unless these rallies are a series of 1st and 2nd waves) does not inspire confidence in the bull trend.  Be careful is short against the range high (2.0547) since consolidation can give way to a brutal move.

Strategy: Flat


Commentary:  We maintain that the drop below 1.1623 completed 5 waves down from 1.2468 and that a large rally is underway.  Wave c within an a-b-c decline from 1.1785 may be complete (or close to it) as price bounced from the 78.6% of 1.1599-1.1785 at 1.1639.  A rally through 1.1785 instills confidence in the larger bullish outlook.

Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD


Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the rally from .9623 is a textbook correction (in 3 waves), and suggests that the USDCAD will continue to drop…”  Wave 5 (v) within a 5 wave decline from 1.0095 (which is wave 5 within a 5 wave cycle from 1.0866) is underway and is likely to probe a bit lower.  Look for resistance in the .9616/88 zone (weekly pivot zone).

Strategy: Flat


Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “it looks rather clear that the AUDUSD requires one more high (above .9077) before ‘topping’ potential’ comes to the forefront.”  The pair registered that high today and the internal structure suggests that this break could extend for some time.  If wave 5 from .8750 equals wave 1 (.7673-.8333), then price would extend to .9410.

Strategy: Flat


Commentary: We are tracking two counts now in the Kiwi.  Once treats the decline from .7785-.7394 as wave 1 within a larger  bearish cycle.  The other count treats the decline from .7785-.7365 as an a-b-c decline.  Under the first count, price is likely to top soon (maybe near the 61.8% of .7785-.7394 at .7635).  Under the latter count, a rally is likely to accelerate in small 3rd wave.  Price above .7467 keeps the trend pointed higher.  Coming under this level triggers the bearish count.
  
Strategy:  Exit bearish position (at a loss)

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the EURUSD decline looks like a clear 5 wave affair, therefore we are treating 1.4349 as a significant top.  The advance has unfolded in a corrective manner as well, probably a double zigzag.”  However, the decline from 1.4279 has unfolded as a correction (zigzag).  With the larger trend remaining up (as it has for some time), be sure to keep risk tight if dedicated to the bear side.  On the other hand, a cautious bullish bias is warranted against 1.4188 for a break of 1.4349.  A large ending diagonal might be unfolding in the 5th wave position within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3360.      
   
Strategy:  Flip to bullish, against 1.4188, for a break above 1.4349.

Commentary:  There is no change to the USDJPY as we believe that a larger correction is unfolding from  113.24.  It is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is due unless the decline is extending.  Look for resistance at 115.93 (100% extension of 113.24-115.04/114.13) and the 61.8% of 117.93-113.24 at 116.14.  Once we see evidence of a top, we will be getting aggressively bearish (and we’ll let you know here).  Very short term traders might try and trade this small c wave higher with risk at 114.13.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Cable has been treacherous lately.  The pattern from an EW perspective is not clear in our mind, but the series of lower highs from 1.9651 indicates that the trend remains up.  Still, the overlapping nature of the rally from that point (unless these rallies are a series of 1st and 2nd waves) does not inspire confidence in the bull trend.  Be careful is short against the range high (2.0547) since consolidation can give way to a brutal move.
Strategy: Remain Bearish, against 2.0547, target TBD (below 2.0258) (LOW CONFIDENCE)

Commentary:  We maintain that the drop below 1.1623 completed 5 waves down from 1.2468 and that a large rally is underway.  Potential support is at the 61.8% of 1.1599-1.1785 at 1.1670 and the pair looks ready to test that level now in a c wave lower within an a-b-c correction from 1.1785.  A rally through 1.1785 instills confidence in the larger bullish outlook.
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD

Commentary: The rally from .9623 is a textbook correction (in 3 waves), and suggests that the USDCAD will continue to drop unless a more complex correction is unfolding (in which case the trend is still down, but just postponed).  If a complex correction is unfolding, then potential resistance is at the 61.8% of .9825-.9623 at .9748.         
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  Back to basics.  We tried getting bearish yesterday and were proved wrong.  Taking a look at a daily chart, it looks rather clear that the AUDUSD requires one more high (above .9077) before ‘topping’ potential’ comes to the forefront.  Potential support for short term bullish entries are at .8907 and and .8864.  

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: We maintain that the .7785-.7394 decline was an impulse.  This means that at least one more leg lower will take place.  The up, down, up scenario that has unfolded since .7394 looks like an a-b-c expanded flat correction.  The correction may be complete at .7569 since exceeding .7556 satisfies minimum expectations.  See our special report from Friday at NZDUSD Top.
  
Strategy:  Get bearish now, against .7785, targets TBD

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  The EURUSD decline looks like a clear 5 wave affair, therefore we are treating 1.4349 as a significant top.  The advance has unfolded in a corrective manner as well, probably a double zigzag.  The rally has stalled at the 61.8% of the 1.4349-1.4125 at 1.4364 and the 78.6% is potential resistance at  1.4301.  We advocate an aggressive bearish stance against 1.4349.  As the decline unfolds, we will be better able to determine bearish targets.   
   
Strategy:  Bearish now, against 1.4349, target TBD (below 1.4125)

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “it is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is due unless the decline is extending.  Under the extension scenario, 114.59 is the 100% of 113.24-114.32/113.51 and a rally to there would potentially complete a correction.  This level is also just above the gap open from this weekend.  If a larger correction is playing out, then look for resistance at 115.02 (38.2% of 117.93-113.24).”  The larger correction appears to be unfolding, so look for resistance closer to the confluence of the former 4th wave / 50 % retrace level of 117.93-113.24 at 115.58/72.  The 61.8% at 116.14 is also a potential end point for this rally.  Once we see evidence of a top, we will be getting aggressively bearish (and we’ll let you know here).  
   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Cable has been treacherous lately, with the break above 2.0494 proving temporary and with yesterday’s decline almost fully retraced.  The rally to this point has stalled at the 78.6% of 2.0547-2.0258 and a second wave rally could be nearing completion (also in a double zigzag….like the EURUSD rally).  A bearish bias is warranted against 2.0547.  The next leg lower could be vicious.     

Strategy: Bearish now, against 2.0547, target TBD (below 2.0258)

Commentary:  We maintain that the drop below 1.1623 completed 5 waves down from 1.2468 and that a large rally is underway.  Potential support is at the 61.8% of 1.1599-1.1785 at 1.1670.  A rally through 1.1785 instills confidence in the larger bullish outlook.
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD

Commentary: The USDCAD turn yesterday appears to have been a fakeout as all of yesterday’s gains were completely reversed.  Once thing that has led us to suspect that a larger turn is due is COT positioning.  The difference between speculative and commercial positioning is the largest that it has ever been (specs are long CAD and commercials short CAD).  This sentiment extreme is often a strong indication that a turn will occur soon.  Of course, sentiment extremes can last for some time so until we see evidence of a bottom, we will refrain from taking action in the USDCAD.  The count above shows a possible diagonal in the iii of v position.  This is against Elliott’s rules but rules are made to be broken.     
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  There are two counts that we are tracking.  One has a 3 wave correction ending at .8750 and the other has a series of 1st and 2nd waves unfolding from .9077.  In the former scenario, price will exceed .9077 before a larger correction.  In the latter scenario, this rally will reverse before .8993 and a larger decline will take place.  We are favoring the bearish count due to the weight of evidence that calls for a dollar bottom.     
Strategy: Remain bearish, move risk to .8993 (from .9077), target .8580

Commentary:  Kiwi is in a similar position to the AUDUSD.  We maintain that the .7785-.7394 decline was an impulse.  This means that at least one more leg lower will take place.  The up, down, up scenario that has unfolded since .7394 looks like an a-b-c expanded flat correction.  The correction may be complete at .7569 since exceeding .7556 satisfies minimum expectations.  See our special report from Friday at NZDUSD Top.
  
Strategy:  Get bearish now, against .7785, targets TBD

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  The EURUSD has made a significant reversal.  The decline from 1.4394 appears to be in an extended 3rd wave.  A 4th wave correction and drop to a new low in a 5th wave should lead to a larger upward correction.  That is the opportunity that we will use to get bearish against 1.4349.            
   
Strategy:  Flat  

Commentary:  It is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is due unless the decline is extending.  Under the extension scenario, 114.59 is the 100% of 113.24-114.32/113.51 and a rally to there would potentially complete a correction.  This level is also just above the gap open from this weekend.  If a larger correction is playing out, then look for resistance at 115.02 (38.2% of 117.93-113.24).  
   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: The reversal in Cable looks exactly the same as in the EURUSD.  The decline is currently in an extended 3rd wave lower and some consolidation in a small 4th wave should happen soon and give way to a 5th wave decline before a larger upward correction in wave 2.  That correction will offer is the opportunity to get bearish against the high (2.0547).

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  We wrote Friday that “the USDCHF is headed below 1.1623 to complete the larger decline (which is a terminal thrust from a triangle).  A drop below 1.1623 would possibly complete 5 waves down from 1.2468 and give way to a reversal and much larger rally.”  After dropping to 1.1599, the USDCHF has skyrocketed nearly 200 pips higher.  It is our contention that the pair is headed back to at least the 1.2200 level and possibly much higher.
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD

Commentary: The USDCAD has finally turned higher.  The short term pattern is the exact same as the EURUSD and GBPUSD (but the inverse of course).  That is, a small 4th wave correction is unfolding now and once 5 waves up are completed, we expect a deeper correction (lower).  This would allow bulls to get aggressive.  Given the extreme sentiment extreme in place, this reversal may prove to be the most vicious of all.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  We wrote last week that, “the AUDUSD is approaching a confluence of Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% of .9077-.8822 is at .8979 and the 100% extension of .8822-.8972/.8838 is at .8988.  These are potential reversal levels.  From a short EW perspective,  the rally from .8822 is clearly corrective and a bearish stance is warranted against .9077.”  Wave 3 (or c) is underway now and the pair is approaching the 100% ext of .9077-.8822/.8893, which is potential support.  A short term bearish objective is at the 161.8% at .8580.  
   
Strategy: Remain bearish, move risk to .8993 (from .9077), target .8580

Commentary:  Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUSUSD (although the pair has held up a bit better).  We wrote Friday that “a wave 2 appears to be nearing completion as price has stalled at the 38.2% of the .7785-.7394 decline at .7543.”  Wave 2 did end at .7555 and the break below .7394 confirms that wave 3 (or c) lower is underway.  Weakness should continue until at least.7164 (100% of .7785-.7394/.7555), although we contend that a longer term bear market is underway.  See our special report from Friday at NZDUSD Top.
  
Strategy:  Get bearish now, against .7500, target 1 at .6930

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  The EURUSD is trading at all-time highs and appears to have more upside potential.  The rally from 1.4144 is either wave 3 in the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4015 or just part of wave 3.  Either way, we expect some additional consolidation to be followed by new highs.  Potential support is the 38.2% of 1.4144-1.4319 at 1.4253.  A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 1.4144.           
   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “a short term bearish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 117.93-116.17/117.18 at 114.33.  Longer term, we are very bearish and expect a drop below 111.59 in the next few weeks.”  The decline from 117.18-114.84 is either wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93 or the first part of wave 3.  The rally that unfolded this morning to 115.72 stalled right at the 38.2% of 117.18-114.84 (and former 4th wave).  That rally is either completes a 3 wave rally or is just the first part of a larger 3 wave rally.  Either way, the longer term structure is bearish and potential resistance is at the 61.8% of 117.18-114.84 at 116.28.     
   
Strategy: Look to get bearish near 116.28, against 117.18, target TBD

Commentary: We are showing the same chart as yesterday because the wave count near term is not very clear.  The GBPUSD is breaking through a consolidation that has lasted since 10/1.  This as well as the intact trend channel suggest that Cable is likely to test at least 2.0654 soon.  A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 2.0285.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The USDCHF is headed below 1.1623 to complete the larger decline (which is a terminal thrust from a triangle).  A drop below 1.1623 would possibly complete 5 waves down from 1.2468 and give way to a reversal and much larger rally.  Near term, a small 4th wave may be complete at 1.1724.  The short term bearish structure is strong as long as price is below 1.1785.
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary: The USDCAD has broken down…again.  The next objective now is .9616, which is the 161.8% extension of .9820-.9721/.9776.  A decline to there would possibly complete wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from .9820.  Consolidation in wave 4 followed by yet another bear leg would then be expected.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The AUDUSD is approaching a confluence of Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% of .9077-.8822 is at .8979 and the 100% extension of .8822-.8972/.8838 is at .8988.  These are potential reversal levels.  From a short EW perspective,  the rally from .8822 is clearly corrective and a bearish stance is warranted against .9077.   

Strategy: Bearish, against .9077, target below .8822

Commentary:  Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUSUSD.  A wave 2 appears to be nearing completion as price has stalled at the 38.2% of the .7785-.7394 decline at .7543.  The 50% and 61.8% levels at .7589 and .7635 are potential resistance levels.  The reward/risk ratio is not as good with Kiwi (if bearish) since the pair has only retraced 38.2% of the recent decline.      
  
Strategy:  Flat

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  At this point, there are a number of patterns that may be playing out.  A large correction may be playing from the 1.4281 high, perhaps a flat or a triangle.  Under this scenario, price is likely to top soon and head lower - below 1.4015 in the case of the flat.  However, the 3 wave correction from 1.4241-1.4144 suggests that upside potential remains.  In summary, the count is not too clear at this point.           
   
Strategy:  Flat  

Commentary:  We were wrong yesterday in claiming that the correction higher had further to go.  That obviously was not the case as the USDJPY has broken significantly lower.  Wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93 is underway.  A short term bearish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 117.93-116.17/117.18 at 114.33.  Longer term, we are very bearish and expect a drop below 111.59 in the next few weeks.  
   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Bigger picture, the count is not too clear but Cable is testing the upper end of its range near 2.0494.  A break through this level may give way to a big breakout.  We are showing the daily chart today with the trend channel that dates to May 2006.  A breakout could lead to a push much higher.  However, be careful because the pair may be in a larger correction from 2.0654 (similar to the EURUSD).

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  We were wrong to turn bullish as it looke like the USDCHF is headed below 1.1623 to complete the larger decline (which is a terminal thrust from a triangle).  A drop below 1.1623 would possibly complete 5 waves down from 1.2468 and give way to a reversal and much larger rally.
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary: Although the USDCAD did drop below .9743, the .9706 low remains in place.  It is possible that a larger correction is underway from .9706 as the decline from .9820 does not look like an impulse.  Under this scenario, the rally should accelerate.  The next level of chart resistance is .9894.
Strategy: Bullish, against .9706, target TBD

Commentary:  Yesterday, we wrote that “the decline does look like a 5 and it also appears that an expanded flat is unfolding now.  Potential resistance is at the 50% and 61.8% of .9077-.8822 at .8950 and .8980.  Look for a top and reversal near there.  The Aussie reversed at .8972 yesterday but a larger more complex correction appears to be underway.  Still, a cautious bearish bias is warranted against .8972.  

Strategy: Bearish, against .8972, target below .8822

Commentary:  Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUSUSD.  A wave 2 may be complete at .7555 and a cautious bearish bias is warranted against that level.  However, a more complex correction could also be unfolding which has the potential to reach the 61.8% of .7785-.7394 at .7635.   
  
Strategy:  Flat

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  No change to the EURUSD.  There are two counts that we are tracking closely.  One treats the decline from 1.4281 as wave A on a larger correction.  The subsequent rally would be wave B and wave C would be underway now.  Under this scenario, the decline is likely to extend to at least 1.3978 (100% extension of 1.4281-1.4015/1.4243).  This count is favored due to the sentiment readings from the COT report which strongly suggests that the US Dollar is nearing a bottom.  The alternate count treats the rally from 1.4015 as wave i of a new bull cycle with a smaller a-b-c correction unfolding now.        
   
Strategy:  Flat  

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “if the decline from 117.93 unfolds in 5 waves, then we will look to get bearish on the pullback.”  A 5 wave decline may have unfolded but the decline could also be a correction within larger wave C.  The USDJPY is fairly close to the 61.8% of the 117.93-116.17 decline but the rally off of the low is sharp (doesn’t look corrective).  If a decline unfolds in 3 waves and ends near 116.71, then look to buy for the next leg up.  A break of 116.17 favors the bearish scenario.  
   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Bigger picture, the count is not too clear but one scenario that we have focused on is that the GBPUSD is declining in a big correction from 2.0654.  Under this scenario, 2.0438 should remain intact and price would be on its way to below 1.9651.  The potential bearish count from 2.0438 (shown on the chart today) favors a bearish stance.  The 61.8% of 2.0438-2.0285 at 2.0380 is potential resistance.
Strategy: Bearish near 2.0380, against 2.0438, target below 1.9651

Commentary:  The terminal thrust from the longer term triangle may be complete as a 3 wave decline (Y wave) and a bottom may be in place at 1.1623.  Given the possibility that the rally from 1.1623 is an impulse and that the decline from 1.1894 looks corrective, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.1623.  The 61.8% of 1.1623-1.1894 at 1.1726 is potential support.
Strategy:  Get bullish near 1.1726, against 1.1623, target TBD

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a 5 wave rally did occur and was followed by a clear 3 wave setback to .9743.  Our working assumption is that the rally is extending higher in wave iii as long as price is above .9743.”  The rally did extend but not in wave iii.  The USDCAD has either traced out a series of 1st and 2nd waves or has completed an a-b-c correction at .9820.  A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above .9743.  Confidence in the bull scenario increases on a rally through .9820.  
Strategy: Remain Bullish, against .9743, target TBD

Commentary:  Yesterday, we wrote that “if the decline unfolds in 5 waves, then we will look to get bearish on the pullback.”  The decline does look like a 5 and it also appears that an expanded flat is unfolding now.  Potential resistance is at the 50% and 61.8% of .9077-.8822 at .8950 and .8980.  Look for a top and reversal near there.

Strategy: Look to get bearish near .8950/.8980, against .9077, target below .8822

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday to “expect some additional consolidation in small wave iv before a drop to a new low in wave v, which would complete a 5 wave bear cycle from the top (.7785).  A larger pullback should follow, which would present an opportunity to get bearish against the high.”  That pullback is underway  now and should face resistance in the .7543 area, which is the 38.2% of .7785-.7394 and just above the former 4th wave.
  
Strategy:  Flat

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  There are two counts that we are tracking closely.  One treats the decline from 1.4281 as wave A on a larger correction.  The subsequent rally would be wave B and wave C would be underway now.  Under this scenario, the decline is likely to extend to at least 1.3978 (100% extension of 1.4281-1.4015/1.4243).  This count is favored due to the sentiment readings from the COT report which strongly suggests that the US Dollar is nearing a bottom.  The alternate count treats the rally from 1.4015 as wave i of a new bull cycle with a smaller a-b-c correction unfolding now.        
   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the risk of a reversal is high as the USDJPY closes in on 118.00.  118.12 is the 100% extension of 111.59-117.12/112.59.  A rally to 118.12 would possibly complete larger wave 2 within a 5 wave bear cycle that began at 124.13.”  If the decline from 117.93 unfolds in 5 waves, then we will look to get bearish on the pullback.  At this point, the decline appears to be in wave iii of 1.  A bearish bias is warranted against 117.46.      
   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the count is not as clear as the EURUSD due to the overlapping waves within the rally from 1.9651.  It is possible that the overlapping waves are a series of 1st and 2nd waves.  In this instance, Cable should accelerate higher with 2.0245 remaining intact.  The other possibility is that the pair is stuck in a larger correction from 2.0654.”  The count is still not clear although the quick decline does favor the larger correction scenario.  Under this scenario, 2.0477 should remain intact and price would be on its way to below 1.9651.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The decline from 1.1894 is clearly not an impulse so we are standing down from the bearish bias against 1.1894.  The terminal thrust from the longer term triangle may be complete as a 3 wave decline (Y wave) and a bottom may be in place at 1.1623.  Given the possibility that the rally from 1.1623 is an impulse, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.1623.  
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary: We were expecting a bottom to form and wrote yesterday that  “a sharp rally in 5 waves would signal that a tradeable low is in place.”  That 5 wave rally did occur and was followed by a clear 3 wave setback to .9743.  Our working assumption is that the rally is extending higher in wave iii as long as price is above .9743.   
Strategy: Bullish now, against .9743, target TBD


Commentary:  Yesterday, we wrote that “the overlapping nature of the rally from .8794 is suggestive of an ending diagonal in the Aussie as well.  A drop below .8951 would be the first signal of a top.”  The drop below .8951 led to a drop to .8831 very quickly.  The decline from the top (.9077) looks just like the USDJPY decline.  As such, the analysis is the same.  If the decline unfolds in 5 waves, then we will look to get bearish on the pullback.  

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The Kiwi decline is taking on an impulsive look.  Expect some additional consolidation in small wave iv before a drop to a new low in wave v, which would complete a 5 wave bear cycle from the top (.7785).  A larger pullback should follow, which would present an opportunity to get bearish against the high.
  
Strategy:  Flat


Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Startegist for DailyFX.com

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  Near term, the EURUSD is bullish as long as price is above 1.4154.  We expect price to exceed 1.4281 while 1.4154 remains intact.  The decline from 1.4241-1.4154 is clearly a 3 wave correction and may be wave 2 within a new 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4015.  In this case, the rally should accelerate in wave 3 in the next day or 2 and is expected to exceed at least 1.4380 (where the rally from 1.4154 would equal the 1.4015-1.4241 rally).  
   
Strategy:  Bullish against 1.4154, target TBD

Commentary:  The risk of a reversal is high as the USDJPY closes in on 118.00.  118.12 is the 100% extension of 111.59-117.12/112.59.  A rally to 118.12 would possibly complete larger wave 2 within a 5 wave bear cycle that began at 124.13.  Still, there is no sign of a top yet and a rally much beyond 118.00 would suggest that the USDJPY is headed to the next potential resistance closer to 120.00 (119.34/84).  
   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: The corrective nature of the decline from 2.0494-2.0245 strongly suggests that the GBPUSD will exceed 2.0494 near term.  The same can be said for 2.0654 since the decline from 2.0654-1.9651 is also corrective.  The count is not as clear as the EURUSD due to the overlapping waves within the rally from 1.9651.  It is possible that the overlapping waves are a series of 1st and 2nd waves.  In this instance, Cable should accelerate higher with 2.0245 remaining intact.  The other possibility is that the pair is stuck in a larger correction from 2.0654.  With the count in the EURUSD very bullish, we will favor the more bullish interpretation in Cable as well.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The USDCHF is playing out as expected.  We wrote last week that “a new low (beneath 1.1623) remains very much a possibility as long as price is below 1.1960 since the rally from 1.1623 could be a 4th wave.”  Favor a new low to complete the terminal thrust from the triangle (shown on the daily chart) before a significant bottom is in place.  

Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.1894, target TBD

Commentary: The USDCAD continues to chop lower although it does appear that the decline from 1.0866 is nearing an end.  We are treating the decline from 1.0094 as wave 5 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.0866.  Under this count, wave 5 of 5 began at .9894 and may be close to complete as an ending diagonal.  A sharp rally in 5 waves would signal that a tradeable low is in place.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The overlapping nature of the rally from .8794 is suggestive of an ending diagonal in the Aussie as well.  A drop below .8951 would be the first signal of a top.  Until then, there is no reason to fade multi-decade highs.

Strategy: Look to get bearish following a rally through .8966, against .9032, target TBD

Commentary:  The rally from .6824 is either wave 3 within a bull cycle from .6639 or wave C within an A-B-C correction from the same level.  A measured objective for the end of the rally is the 161.8% extension of .6639-.7272/.6824 at .7845.  A new high above .7785 satisfies minimum expectations for the end of the rally from .7501 (wave 5).      
  
Strategy:  Flat

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  Euro  constinues to consolidate. Yesterday’s intra-day reversal keft a nasty wick on top and unless proce action is able to take out 1.4240 high the most immediate trend is down.
  
Strategy:  Look to establish shorts against 1.4240 stop

Commentary: After testng the lower bounds of the Upper Bollinger Band channel USDJPY resumed its upward trend. The price action shows hesitation on the part of both bulls and bears and as wenoted yesterday only a clear break of the symtrecial triangle will resolve the directional bias.
  
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Yestreday’s fall from grace, as GBPUSD broke the buy zone support at the Upper Bollinger Band changed the momentum form the bulls ot the bears and the pair now sees downside bias which will be negated only id the 2.0230 high is taken out to the upside.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The Swissie range continues to narriow as volatility compressed to a mere 40 points in the last 24 hours. Volatility far more than price is mean reverting suggesting that a breakout may be very close at hand. A  break below 1.1800 target 1.1700 while a take out of the 1.1840 level opens the way to 1.1900.
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  Canadian price action is following a clearly defined pattern of bear flags although the consolidate nature ofteh most recent downmove suggests that momemtum may be waning. For now the price action remains inconclusivce, but a break above 9800 puts the bulls back in control while a break of muliti decade lows at 9735 extneds the downtrend
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  Having barely extended the prior 9032 high Aussie continues to churn away in the 9050-8950 zone. The are has clearly become a strong level of resitance and unless it can take out the most recent high wioth convinction, Aussie looks ready to a turn. A break of 8950 would open the way to a test of 8800.

Strategy: Short on a break of 8950 against 9060 stop target 8800

Commentary:  The price action in the kiwi is continues to look constructive for the bulls as the pair remains within the Bollinger Band buy zone. A clearing of the 7746 high from yesterday opens the way to a probe of 7900 Upper Bollinger Band level..     
  
Strategy:  Flat

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  While the near term picture for the  EURUSD clearly looks bullish as the pair reneters the buy zone, the upleg may be limited in scope momemtum has turend negative. The pair looks to be in process of setting a double top and only a clear break of the all time highs at 1.4283 would suggest further upside action. Thus while longs are favored they should be monitored closesly.
  
Strategy:  Look to establish bull position near 1.4070/90, against 1.4015, target above 1.4281

Commentary:  USDJPY continues to grind away in a consolidative fashion with price action compressing into an apex of a symmetrical triangle. A resolution of proce action to the upside open the possibility of 119.00 target, but failure to the downside would suggest a possible intermediate term top has been put in place.
  
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: The hesitation in the pound action which has seen the the pair essentially hug the 2.0400 figure for the past week has frustrated both bulls and bears. For the time being however, the doji candles suugest the bias remains to the upside with the pair likely to test all time highs near the 2.0600 zone but for the bullish scenario to be confiormed it must close above 2.0450 on the dailies.  

Strategy: Look to establish bull position near 2.0360/80, against 2.0256, target 2.0593

Commentary:  The Swissie continues to be bounded by 1.1900 to the topside and 1.7000 to the downside as the pair grinds away in directionless trade. At present the failure at 1.1850 auguirs a test of the 1.11700 lows but the price action remains inconclusive neyond that point  
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  Overnight the loonie set new multi-decade highs as USDCAD slipped below 9770. However downside momentum has clearly slowed and only a break of the 9950 level would suggest a recacceleration of the downside trend. Buying USDCAD has been an exercise in frustration as the pair continued to drip lower over the past month, however given the deeply oversold nature of the move a turn should be in the offing soon.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  Aussie has taken out the 9032 prior high in overnight trade and appears ready to stage an assault on the 9100 figure. The strong upside move in priceis confirmed by a shift in momentum to the same direction and a breach of the 9050 opens the way for the bulls to ruin the unti to the big bigure. Only a reversal below the breakout level of 8970 negates the upside bias.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The price action in the kiwi is nearly as constructive as the move in the Aussie. Havong treseatlished its bulish bias by strongly re-entring the buy zone, the kiwi can now target the Upper Bollinger Band at 7820 before finding any meaningful resitance only a close below the 1 standard deviation BB band would reverse the upside bias.     
  
Strategy:  Flat

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  Ok, the EURUSD count has finally cleared up (we think) and we feel comfortable stating a directional bias for the first time in weeks.  We can confidently say that the decline from 1.4281 is a correction (a-b-c) because the advance from 1.4015 is impulsive (5 waves).  What should prove to be wave 1 in a new bull cycle from 1.4015 is nearing an end and price is likely to fall, albeit correctively in wave 2, towards 1.4070/1.4090 before the next leg up.           
   
Strategy:  Look to establish bull position near 1.4070/90, against 1.4015, target above 1.4281

Commentary:  We still expect a rally to at least 118.00 (maybe 119.00) prior to a reversal.  Recent weakness is viewed as a consolidation/correction in a 4th wave, which is either complete at 116.80 or will not end until 116.27 (latter view favored).  A drop under 116.80 satisifies minimum expectations for wave iv and a rally above 117.61 would complete wave v and therefore larger wave 3 of C.  Yet another setback should then occur in larger wave 4 before wave 5 completes the entire rally from 111.59.  In summary, we expect the USDJPY to trade with a bullish bias from little if any under 116.27.  A top and reversal is then expected.  Objectives for the end of the advance are 118.12 and 119.34.  It is reasonable to assume that this topping process will take at least a week, if not 2.      
   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Near term (this week), it looks like Cable is likely to exceed 2.0494 but we maintain that everything from 2.0654 is part of a larger correction such as a triangle or a flat.  A potential reversal point is where the advance from 1.9879 would equal the 1.9651-2.0366 advance, at 2.0593.  That would compete what we are treating as wave B within the large correction.  Very short term traders may wish to trade from the bull side against 2.0256.  Support is at 2.0360/80 and the objective is the mentioned 2.0593.
   
Strategy: Look to establish bull position near 2.0360/80, against 2.0256, target 2.0593

Commentary:  We favor a new low (beneath 1.1623) in order to complete the terminal thrust from the longer term triangle.  As such, the rally from 1.1623-1.1894 is viewed as wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from 1.2468.  Coming under 1.1623 satisfies minimum expectations but we will be better able to determine bearish objectives as the decline unfolds.  The bearish case is strong as long as price is below 1.1960 on a daily closing basis.

Strategy: Flat


Commentary: Much like the USDJPY is undergoing a topping process in the next few weeks, the USDCAD is undergoing a bottoming process.  Wait for price chop lower in a series of 4th and 5th waves before thinking about fading this bear trend.  A rally back to 1.0095 would possibly complete wave 4 in the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.0866.  A subsequent decline would still be expected to register a new low though in wave 5.  Things could change but at this point, upside potential looks limited to about 1.0100 and there is no point of reference from which to place a stop (for longs).  

Strategy: Flat
\
Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “near term resistance is at the 61.8% of .9032-.8917 at .8988.  A rally to there would complete either wave 2 or b and lead to a larger decline.”  This scenario may still be playing out as the Aussie has rallied to .9011 and stalled.  .9032 is critical to the very short term bearish bias.  If short, keep risk tight if price drops below .8912 (that could signal the end of an a-b-c correction from .9032).     

Strategy: Remain bearish, against .9032, target TBD

Commentary:  There is no change to the Kiwi (the pattern is not as clear as the AUDUSD pattern).  “With 5 waves already up from .6824, the decline from .7668 could be wave a of a larger correction, likely a flat.  b waves in flats often test the origin of wave a and it is not uncommon for the b wave to exceed the origin of a.”  With price remaining below .7672, it is our contention that price is rolling over in wave c that should come under .7501.   
  
Strategy:  Flat


Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  EURUSd may be finaly in the process of putting in a near term top as momentum on hourlies begins to fade with RSi dipping below 50. 1.4277 swing high now asserts itself as resistance with near term  target at 1.4050
Strategy:  Short now, against 1.4277 swing high, target TBD

Commentary:  USDJPy continues to push higher but is essentially rangebound on the 30 day hourly charts as it faces a series of resistance points at  116.50 and 117.00. The bias in the pair remains up but it may be tough going from this point on.
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 113.99, target 118.00

Commentary: Having taken out the near term resistance at 2.0300 the pound now faces an overhang at the 2.0500 level  an dhaving extended itself significantly above the 20 SMA may now retrace back to the moving average. A break higher however opens the way to a test of the yearly high at 2.0642.
Strategy: Move to flat (from bullish)

Commentary:  USDCHF may be in the process of setting a near trem bottom as the pair tries to inch its way above the 1 SD Bolliger band. A close above 1.1720 on the daily would be constructive to the longs but for now the price action remains indeterminate.
Strategy:  Remain bullish, move risk to 1.1676 (from 1.1637), target TBD

Commentary:  USDCAD remains in a strong bearish pattern but the pirce action may be trying to trace out a ner term bottom     at the 9930 level. Still call a bottom at this point is pure speculation as price has provoded no indication of upside momentum.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The AUDUSD is at a critcal point as it appears to have broken upside resistance but must now hold those levels in order for the bullish pattern to continue. On the opposite side, a failure here could signal adouble top which  could open the way to a correction all the way to 8600.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Much like the Aussie the kiwi finds itself now at the moment of truth. The pair has cleared the 61.8% Fibo retrace of the 8103-6700 Bear wave but now find key resiatance at the 7700 level. A failure here would suggest a move back to 7300 level but we will need to see more clues from price action before determining the most likely path
  
Strategy:  Flat

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “an ending diagonal may be unfolding in wave 5 from 1.4040.  This remains a possibility as long as price is above 1.4061.  One more high may complete the larger advance near 1.4200.  The upper diagonal line is close to 1.4200.  A rally to there may complete the advance from 1.4041 and possibly a larger rally.  A drop below 1.4111 signals a short opportunity against the high.”  There is no change to the call for a top and reversal that brings the EURUSD back to at least 1.4040.  The area surrounding 1.4200 should provide strong resistance.  
   
Strategy:  Short now, against 1.4205, target TBD

Commentary:  “We have continued to state that we expect a return to 118.00 in order to complete wave C of the A-B-C from 111.59 and that this count remains favored unless price drops under 112.59.”  This count is now favored as long as price is above 113.99.  Near term, the subdivisions are not especially clear but there is no reason to change the outlook for a rally to exceed 117.12 (minimum) before a reversal opportunity presents itself.
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 113.99, target 118.00

Commentary: 2.0136 was our line in the sand for the bullish count and Cable has rewarded patience, pushing to 2.0326 this morning.  Risk of a reversal outweighs the reward of gain in the near term as the pair trades at the upper end of its range.  Also, given the possible ending diagonal pattern in the EURUSD that calls for a reversal, GBPUSD weakness seems probable. Also, the overlapping nature (yellow circle) of the rally from 2.0084 does not inspire confidence.  The more bullish pattern that we thought was playing out is still valid but there is too much evidence to the contrary right now, which will keep us from being aggressive.     
   
Strategy: Move to flat (from bullish)

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “it is possible to count a 5 up from 1.1637 that may be complete at 1.1720.  This is either wave A of a correction that has more room to the upside or wave 1 of a new bull cycle.  Either way, near term support is at 1.1677 and a bullish bias is warranted against 1.1637.”  After dropping to 1.1676, the USDCHF rallied higher in what may be wave i of 3 (or C).  The pair is setting up for a strong rally as long as price is above 1.1676.  
Strategy:  Remain bullish, move risk to 1.1676 (from 1.1637), target TBD

Commentary:  We have favored a larger correction to 1.0173 (former 4th wave) to unfold as wave iv of 3 before a drop to a new low in order to complete wave 3 and give way to a larger correction.  Given the corrective nature of the advance from .9936, it is possible that wave iv of 3 is already complete so a drop to a new low may happen soon.  There is no reason to get bearish now though, as we still expect a drop to a new low to be fully retraced since the decline would complete wave 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.0866.  Again, a larget wave iv would likely end near 1.0175.         
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The AUDUSD is completing larger wave 3 in the 5 wave bull cycle from .7673.  We are expecting a correction could test .8610 before a rally to a new high in larger wave 5 (above .8870).   The path is towards higher prices until the 5 wave advance from .7673 is complete so there is no reason to fade the strong bull move just yet.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: With the appearance of 5 waves higher from .6824, we are expecting a correction back to at least .7468 and possibly .7304.  The rally from .6824 is either the end of a correction (wave C) or wave 3 within a 5 wave bull cycle from .6639.  Price has stalled at the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547.
  
Strategy:  Flat
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.  An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “an ending diagonal may be unfolding in wave 5 from 1.4040.  This remains a possibility as long as price is above 1.4061.  One more high may complete the larger advance near 1.4200.”  The upper diagonal line is close to 1.4200.  A rally to there may complete the advance from 1.4041 and possibly a larger rally.  A drop below 1.4111 signals a short opportunity against the high.  
   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  “We have continued to state that we expect a return to 118.00 in order to complete wave C of the A-B-C from 111.59 and that this count remains favored unless price drops under 112.59.”  This count is now favored as long as price is above 114.02.  An a-b-c correction appears to be unfolding from 115.73.  A drop below 115.29 is expected before the correction is complete.  Estimated support from Fibonacci is at 115.08 and 114.68.  Those not yet long that wish to get long for a test of 118.00 can use dips to these levels to get bullish against 114.02.
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 114.02 (from 112.59), target 118.00

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a bullish bias is warranted against 2.0084, targeting a rally through 2.0366.”  Risk can be moved to 2.0136 now as Cable is in a small third wave higher towards 2.0366.  2.0204 is near term support.  A drop below 2.0136 would negate the call for a rally through 2.0366 and suggest that price will drop below 2.0084.
      
Strategy: Remain Bullish, move risk to 2.0136 (from 2.0084), target TBD

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “after dropping to 1.1637, the USDCHF has rallied in an impulsive fashion (5 waves), so favor the upside at least in the near term for a rally to 1.1771.”  It is possible to count a 5 up from 1.1637 that may be complete at 1.1720.  This is either wave A of a correction that has more room to the upside or wave 1 of a new bull cycle.  Either way, near term support is at 1.1677 and a bullish bias is warranted against 1.1637.  
Strategy:  Remain bullish, against 1.1637, target TBD

Commentary:  We have favored a larger correction to 1.0173 (former 4th wave) to unfold as wave iv of 3 before a drop to a new low in order to complete wave 3 and give way to a larger correction.  Given the corrective nature of the advance from .9936, it is possible that wave iv of 3 is already complete so a drop to a new low may happen soon.  There is no reason to get bearish now though, as we still expect a drop to a new low to be fully retraced since the decline would complete wave 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.0866.  Again, a larget wave iv would likely end near 1.0175.         
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The AUDUSD continues to push higher and is likely in a 5th wave within a 5 wave bull cycle from .8171.  The completion of wave v from .8610 would most likely complete a larger 3rd wave as well and give way to a correction that could test .8610 before a rally to a new high in larger wave 5 (above .8870).   The path is towards higher prices until the 5 wave advance from .7673 is complete.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: With the appearance of 5 waves higher from .6824, at least a correction is due.  The rally from .6824 is either the end of a correction (wave C) or wave 3 within a 5 wave bull cycle from .6639.  Near term support is at .7304.  The pair is approaching the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547, which is a potential reversal point.  
  
Strategy:  Move to flat (from bullish)
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.  An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the rally from 1.3360 appears to be in 5 waves and may very well be complete or close to complete.  A correction of this rally is expected to unfold soon and bring price back to at least 1.3828.  The decline from the top is not yet impulsive so we see little reason to be bearish at current price.  An ending diagonal may be unfolding in wave 5 from 1.4040.  This remains a possibility as long as price is above 1.4061.  One more high may complete the larger advance near 1.4200.  
   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  We have continued to state that we expect a return to 118.00 in order to complete wave C of the A-B-C from 11.59 and that this count remains favored unless price drops under 112.59.  Near term, waves i and ii of C may be complete at 113.99.  The rally to 115.85 and subsequent decline to 114.02 would then be smaller waves i and ii of iii of c.  A rally through 115.85 instills confidence in the bullish bias.
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, risk at 112.59, target 118.00

Commentary: After reviewing the charts, it is too difficult to ignore the 3 wave structure from 2.0366, which suggests that price will exceed that level.  As such, the price action from 1.9879 may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves.  A bullish bias is warranted against 2.0084, targeting a rally through 2.0366.
   
Strategy: Bullish now, against 2.0084, target TBD

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “price never exceeded 1.1771 to complete a flat so a triangle may be unfolding as wave 4.  If this is the case, then additional consolidation will be followed by a new low (below 1.1677) before a larger recovery.”  After dropping to 1.1637, the USDCHF has rallied in an impulsive fashion (5 waves), so favor the upside at least in the near term for a rally to 1.1771.
Strategy:  Bullish now, against 1.1637, target TBD

Commentary:  We have favored a larger correction to 1.0173 (former 4th wave) to unfold as wave iv of 3 before a drop to a new low in order to complete wave 3 and give way to a larger correction.  Given the corrective nature of the advance from .9936, it is possible that wave iv of 3 is close to complete (or already complete), so a drop to a new low may happen in the next few days.  There is no reason to get bearish now though, as we still expect a drop to a new low to be fully retraced since the decline would complete wave 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.0866.         
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The AUDUSD continues to push higher and is likely in a 5th wave within a 5 wave bull cycle from .8171.  The completion of wave v from .8610 would most likely complete a larger 3rd wave as well and give way to a correction that most likely tests .8610 before a rally to a new high in larger wave 5 (above .8870).   The path is towards higher prices.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that the decline to .7304 was wave iv within the 5 wave rally from .6824 (which is either larger wave 3 or C) and that “it is our working assumption as long as price is above .7185 (top of wave i of C)…a push through .7486 could lead to a sharp reversal.”  Remain bullish but keep risk tight on a rally through .7486.  
  
Strategy:  Remain bullish, against .7185 target .7547/89
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.  An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the rally from 1.3360 appears to be in 5 waves and may very well be complete or close to complete.  A correction of this rally is expected to unfold soon and bring price back to at least 1.3828.  However, from a trading perspective, there is no reason to fade this move until we see a clear decline in 5 waves followed by a corrective setback.”  The decline from 1.4130 to 1.4061 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave a of an a-b-c correction.  The bounce looks like an expanded flat as wave b.  A very short term bearish bias is warranted against 1.4130.  Support may be strong at 1.4040 (former 4th wave).  As mentioned, a deeper correction would possibly test 1.3828.  The structure of the decline will alert us to the bearish potential.        
   
Strategy:  Very short term idea….bearish now, against 1.4130, targets at 1.4040 and 1.4000

Commentary:  We have continued to state that we expect a return to 118.00 in order to complete wave C of the A-B-C from 11.59 and that this count remains favored unless price drops under 113.99.  113.99 is awfully close to being breached so please keep the alternate that we proposed last week in mind.  The triangle scenario would most likely lead to weakness below 114.00 that proves marginal before a small bounce in wave e completes the triangle.  This is the pattern we are showing today.  
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 113.99 (from 112.59), target 118.00

Commentary: The decline from 2.0317 appears impulsive (5 waves), therefore any bounce offers a chance to get bearish against 2.0317.  Bigger picture, there are a few patterns that may be unfolding from 2.0366.  A triangle may be underway or a large flat.  In the latter scenario, price should come under 1.9879 before the decline is complete.  The most bearish count has the decline from 2.0366 to 1.9879 as a 5 wave impulse followed by a 3 wave countertrend advance that ended at 2.0317.  In this instance, the decline underway now is wave 3.  In any case, allow for a bounce before getting bearish as all three of the mentioned patterns are at least near term bearish.   
Strategy: Exit longs (small profit), bearish on a bounce to 2.0170, against 2.0317, target TBD

Commentary:  Remember that the larger pattern has the USDCHF thrusting lower from a triangle and thrusts from triangles are terminal.  We wrote yesterdat that “the decline from 1.1922 does not look complete.  Allow for a rally through 1.1771 to complete wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from 1.1922 before wave 5 registers a new low (below 1.1677).  That would possibly complete the thrust lower from the triangle.”  Price never exceeded 1.1771 to complete a flat so a triangle may be unfolding as wave 4.  If this is the case, then additional consolidation will be followed by a new low (below 1.1677) before a larger recovery.
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  We have favored a larger correction to 1.0173 (former 4th wave) to unfold as wave iv of 3 before a drop to a new low in order to complete wave 3 and give way to a larger correction.  Given the corrective nature of the advance from .9936, it is possible that wave iv of 3 is close to complete (or already complete), so a drop to a new low may happen in the next few days.  There is no reason to get bearish now though, as we still expect a drop to a new low to be fully retraced since the decline would complete wave 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.0866.         
Strategy: Move to flat (from bullish…small gain)

Commentary:  We wrote testerday that “the correction unfolding from .8702 is either complete at .8605) or the decline from .8702 is just the first leg in a more complex correction.  In the latter case, price should drop below .8605 (marginally) before the next bullish leg gets underway.  We favor this scenario because the rally from .8605 is not an impulse.”  The Aussie has dropped close to .8605 but has yet to drop beneath.  We still expect a drop below .8605 to complete the correction from .8702.   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Although bullish, we have warranted caution because the first bullish objective (the 100% ext. of .6639-.7272/.6824 at .7456) was already hit.  It is possible that the sharp decline from .7486 is wave iv of wave c but 4th waves are rarely sharp.  Still, this is our working assumption as long as price is above .7185 (top of wave i of c).  A psuh through .7486 could lead to a sharp reversal.  
  
Strategy:  Remain bullish, against .7185 target .7547/89
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.  An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  The rally from 1.3360 appears to be in 5 waves and may very well be complete or close to complete.  A correction of this rally is expected to unfold soon and bring price back to at least 1.3828.  However, from a trading perspective, there is no reason to fade this move until we see a clear decline in 5 waves followed by a corrective setback.      
   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  There is no change in the call for a return to 118.00.  We proposed an alternate count last week that has a triangle unfolding but our favored count calls for an advance in wave C of the A-B-C correction from 111.59 (wave C began at 112.59).  The A-B-C is expected to complete larger wave 2 in a 5 wave bear cycle that began at 124.13.  118.12 is the 100% ext. of 111.59-117.12/112.59 (where C would equal A).  We are comfortable with this count as long as price is above 113.99.  
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 113.99 (from 112.59), target 118.00

Commentary: The bullish count continues to track well and is favored as long as price is above 1.9951.  “The decline from 2.0366 is a 3 wave decline and the rally from 1.9879 can be labeled an impulse so that places Cable in a 3rd wave rally now.”  A bullish objective is at the 161.8% ext. of 1.9879-2.0172/1.9951 at 2.0425.
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 1.9951, target 1 at 2.0425

Commentary:  Remember that the larger pattern has the USDCHF thrusting lower from a triangle and thrusts from triangles are terminal.  Still, the decline from 1.1922 does not look complete.  Allow for a rally through 1.1771 to complete wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from 1.1922 before wave 5 registers a new low (below 1.1677).  That would possibly complete the thrust lower from the triangle.
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  Last week, we wrote to “a drop below 1.0004 to complete 5 waves down from 1.0173 would potentially lead to a larger corrective rally back to 1.0173 (former resistance) before a drop to yet a new low.”  There is no change to this outlook.  A rally back to 1.0173 (the 38.2% of 1.0591-.9936 is at 1.0186) would be wave iv of larger wave 3 in the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.0866.  A more significant rally is possible and we will assess bullish potential as the advance unfolds.      
Strategy: Remain bullish, against .9936, target 1 is 1.0173, target 2 is TBD

Commentary:  We maintain that a short term top is in place at .8702 as 5 waves are complete there from .8274.  The correction unfolding from .8702 is either complete at .8605) or the decline from .8702 is just the first leg in a more complex correction.  In the latter case, price should drop below .8605 (marginally) before the next bullish leg gets underway.  We favor this scenario because the rally from .8605 is not an impulse.  
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: The Kiwi structure is unfolding as expected.  Be careful here though because the first bullish objectives (the 100% ext. of .6639-.7272/.6824 at .7456) has already been hit.  The next potential resistance levels are the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547 and  .7589, which is the 161.8% ext. of .6824-.7185/.7005.  .7325 is near term support.  A deeper correction would potentially test .7227.
  
Strategy:  Remain bullish, move risk to .7185 (from .7005), target .7547/89
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.  An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   

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hefeiddd

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the EURUSD has advanced as suggested and a rally above 1.4065 would possibly complete wave 5 that began at 1.3828.  The risk of a reversal increases with every tick higher but, as always, we will wait for a 5 wave decline and 3 wave setback before turning bearish.”  A top is in place at 1.4119 but the degree of that top is unclear.  A decline to at least 1.4023 is expected but a deeper decline would likely test a former 4th wave at 1.3936.  A rally in 3 waves presents an opportunity to get bearish against the top (1.4119)
   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  There is no change in the call for a return to 118.00.  We proposed an alternate count yesterday that has a triangle unfolding but our favored count calls for an advance in wave C of the A-B-C correction from 111.59 (wave C began at 112.59).  The A-B-C is expected to complete larger wave 2 in a 5 wave bear cycle that began at 124.13.  118.12 is the 100% ext. of 111.59-117.12/112.59 (where C would equal A).  
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 112.59, target 118.00

Commentary: We presented the bullish count yesterday and it is tracking well.  “The decline from 2.0366 is a 3 wave decline and the rally from 1.9879 can be labeled an impulse so that places Cable in a 3rd wave rally now.  A push through 2.0172 strengthens the bullish bias and would likely lead to a push through 2.0366.  1.9879 is critical to the bullish case.”
Strategy: Bullish now, move risk to 1.9951 (from 1.9879), target above 2.0366 (add to position on a rally through 2.0172)

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that  “a drop below 1.1793 would potentially complete 5 waves from 1.1922 and give way to either a corrective rally or an outright reversal.  Remember that the larger pattern has the USDCHF thrusting lower from a triangle and thrusts from triangles are terminal.  It looks like one more low is needed before potential for a bigger bounce comes to the forefront.  That is, a drop below 1.1711 would make the decline from 1.1878 5 waves and gives scope to at least a corrective rally.”  That drop may have ended at 1.1677.  Similar to the EURUSD, an opportunity presents itself on a 3 wave setback.   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  The USDCAD dropped to .9936 to complete 5 waves down from 1.0173.  We wrote yesterday to “look for consolilation in a 4th wave correction before a drop to a new low (below 1.0004).  A drop below 1.0004 to complete 5 waves down from 1.0173 would potentially lead to a larger corrective rally back to 1.0173 (former resistance) before a drop to yet a new low.  That would possibly complete the entire decline from 1.1825.”  This scenario is playing out as the USDCAD has rallied over 100 pips from the low this morning.  Look for at least a rally back to 1.0173.  We willl be able to better assess the situation as the form of the advance unfolds.
Strategy: Bullish now, against .9936, target 1 is 1.0173, target 2 is TBD

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the rally from .8274 is likely nearing an end.  The rally is in its 5th wave, so the trend is towards higher prices but not before a substantial correction.”  That correction is either complete at .8605 as the decline from the top (.8702 is in 3 waves) or the decline from .8702 is just the first leg in a more complex correction.  If that is the case (that the decline is just the first leg), then a deeper decline may very well test .8492 before an advance.  
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: The Kiwi structure is unfolding as expected.  Be careful here though because the first bullish objectives (the 100% ext. of .6639-.7272/.6824 at .7456) has already been hit.  The next potential resistance levels are the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547 and  .7589, which is the 161.8% ext. of .6824-.7185/.7005.  .7325 is near term support.  A deeper correction would potentially test .7227.
  
Strategy:  Remain bullish, move risk to .7185 (from .7005), target .7547/89
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.  An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   

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hefeiddd

      
Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “wave 5 is indeed underway from 1.3828 and is appears that one more high (above 1.3988) is required before a more significant top is in place.  This 15 minute chart shows the structure of wave 5 from 1.3828 and suggests that it is close to complete.  A rally above 1.3988 satisfies minimum expectations for the end of wave 5.”  The EURUSD has advanced as suggested and a rally above 1.4065 would possibly complete wave 5 that began at 1.3828.  The risk of a reversal increases with every tick higher but, as always, we will wait for a 5 wave decline and 3 wave setback before turning bearish.        
   
Strategy:  Flat (exited longs at 1.3988)

Commentary:  There is no change in the call for a return to 118.00 but we are proposing an alternate count today (because it is always a good idea to do so).  The count that we have favored for weeks treats the advance from 111.59 as wave a within the a-b-c correction that is larger wave 2.  Wave b of that correction ended at 112.59 and we have favored the idea that wave c is underway now towards 118.00.  This count remains favored at the current juncture but the alternate that we propose today is that a triangle is unfolding from 111.59 as large wave B within an A-B-C decline from 124.13.  In this triangle alternate, expect weakness towards 113.50/114.30 in wave d of the triangle before a small bounce in wave e, which will be followed by a terminal thrust that ends well below 111.59.  Again, the count that calls for a return to 118.00 is favored.        
   
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 112.59, target 118.00

Commentary: The inability of Cable to drop below 1.9879 in a 5th wave forces us to favor the bullish count, which is fairly bullish.  The decline from 2.0366 is a 3 wave decline and the rally from 1.9879 can be labeled an impulse so that places Cable in a 3rd wave rally now.  A push through 2.0172 strengthens the bullish bias and would likely lead to a push through 2.0366.  1.9879 is critical to the bullish case.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.9879, target above 2.0366 (add to position on a rally through 2.0172)

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that  “a drop below 1.1793 would potentially complete 5 waves from 1.1922 and give way to either a corrective rally or an outright reversal.  Remember that the larger pattern has the USDCHF thrusting lower from a triangle and thrusts from triangles are terminal.”  Similar to the EURUSD, it looks like one more low (high in the case of the EURUSD) is needed before potential for a bigger bounce comes to the forefront.  That is, a drop below 1.1711 would make the decline from 1.1878 5 waves and gives scope to at least a corrective rally.   
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  PARITY.  The USDCAD dropped to 1.0004 this morning and lower prices lie ahead.  The vertical drop from 1.0132 is undoubtedly a 3rd wave in a 5 wave decline from 1.0173.  As such, look for consolidation in a 4th wave correction before a drop to a new low (below 1.0004).  A drop below 1.0004 to complete 5 waves down from 1.0173 would potentially lead to a larger corrective rally back to 1.0175 (former resistance) before a drop to yet a new low.  That would possibly complete the entire decline from 1.1825.  We are showing the 25 min chart this morning.         
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The rally from .8274 is likely nearing an end.  The rally is in its 5th wave, so the trend is towards higher prices but not before a substantial correction.  Within the 5 wave rally from .8274, the 5th wave from .8486 is likely to trace out a wave 4 correction that ends near .8605 before a new high in wave 5 of 5.  The path is shown on the chart above.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: The Kiwi structure is unfolding as expected.  We wrote yesterday that  “a correction is likely complete at .7005 and we expect the rally to accelerate in the next few hours in a 3rd wave.  The rally accelerated and the pair has exceeded the wave a high of .7272.  Bullish objectives are the 100% ext. of .6639-.7272/.6824 at .7456 and the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547.  We would like to update the bullish objectives to .7547/89.  .7589 is the 161.8% ext. of .6824-.7185/.7005.  Near term support is at .7323 and .7227.
  
Strategy:  Remain bullish, keep risk at .7005, target .7547/89
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data.  An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.   

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