一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

We maintain that the decline from the November 2007 high at 1.4966 is the wave 3 top within a 5 wave advance from the June 2007 low at 1.3261. Since 1.4966, the EURUSD has either completed a flat as wave 4 or a triangle is still unfolding as wave 4. Either way, higher prices are expected in the coming weeks with objectives in the mid 1.50s. This could complete larger wave 3 within the 5 wave advance from the November 2005 low at 1.1638.

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Wave d of the triangle is underway now. We wrote yesterday to “expect wave e to end near 1.4589/1.4659; this is the 61.8% to 50% of 1.4365-1.4953.” Price is at the upper end of this zone now but we would like to see this leg of the triangle continue for at least two more days. Therefore, look for a long entry near the bottom of this zone (1.4589) and maybe even near the 1/23 low at 1.4511.  

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

STRATEGY: Long in halves at 1.4595 and 1.4520, against 1.4359, target mid 1.50s

Longer term, we maintain that a 12 year triangle ended at 124.13 in June 2007 and that the USDJPY is headed lower for a test of its 1995 low at 81.12. Since 124.13, the USDJPY has traced out a series of 1st and 2nd waves. The decline should accelerate in the next month in wave 3 of 3. This forecast remains intact as long as price is below 114.65.

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

We maintain that the strong rally from 104.97 is a c wave that will complete a larger second wave as an expanded flat. Price is expected to exceed 107.92 and resistance should be strong in the 108.33/50 area. Look for a top and reversal near there. This count is intact as long a price is below 110.11.

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

For the first time in months, the GBPUSD daily count is clear. The pair has declined in 5 waves from 2.1160, indicating that a significant top is in place. The 5 wave decline is viewed as either wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A in a 3 wave bear cycle. In other words, longer term bearish potential is great. The rally underway now is either wave 2 or B and we will look for a top in the 2.0033-2.0463 zone. This corrective rally probably lasts for weeks if not most of this month.

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

The rally from 1.9337 to 1.9957 is a 5 wave advance and is probably wave A within the A-B-C corrective rally. It is possible that a B wave low is in place at 1.9626. However, B waves are notoriously tricky and usually not as clear as the drop from 1.9957 is now. This has us thinking that a triangle or larger flat will occur before the wave C advance towards 2.00.

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

A corrective 4th wave rally may be underway now within the 5 wave decline from the October 2006 high at 1.2768. The USDCHF will likely trade in a choppy manner for the next month or so, but with an upside bias before a decline in a 5th wave completes the entire decline from the October 2006 high and gives way to a multi-year low.

A triangle could be in its early stages right now in the USDCHF.  The decline from the 1/22 high at 1.1122 is in 3 waves and the rally from the 2/1 low at 1.0728 is also in 3 waves (to this point).  Legs of triangles unfold in 3 waves so if a triangle is underway from the 1/22 high, then expect the next move to look something like what the arrows show on the chart above.

The pattern in the USDCAD since the November low at .9055 is either an A-B-C rally that will lead to a new low (under .9055) or a 1-2 (expanded flat) base that will lead to a strong rally to new highs (suggesting that a multi-year USDCAD low is in place).
Either way, price will come below .9755.
Potential support from Fibonacci is at .9652 and .9511.


Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

The short term picture is clear. The decline from 1.0378 is clearly a 5 wave decline and an a-b-c corrective rally is underway now towards 1.0117. The next level of resistance is Fibonacci resistance at 1.0184. Look for a top and reversal near these levels in order to position for a drop below .9755.

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

STRATEGY: Short in halves at 1.0119 and 1.0179, against 1.0385, target TBD (below .9755)

As long as the AUDUSD rallies in 5 waves and declines in 3 waves, there is no reason to adopt a bearish outlook. The rally from .8512 is expected to exceed .9400 in the coming weeks. Objectives are near 1.00.

The spike low on 1/30 at .8817 may have completed a small 2nd wave within a 5 wave advance from .8512. As such, wave 3 is probably underway now. Wave i of 3 is complete at .9100 and a wave ii pullback is underway towards the .8925-.8992 zone (this is the 61.8%-50% of .8817-.9100).

STRATGY: Long in halves at .8995 and .8935, against .8815, target mid .90s and 1.0000

The drop on 1/22 to .7383 completed a large correction that had been underway since November. Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD trend remains up and an upside breakout will probably lead to a test of the July 2007 high at .8108.

The NZDUSD short term pattern is not clear. Still, given the daily count and the bullish AUDUSD count, it is reasonable to adopt a bullish stance against the 1/30 spike low (.7751). Potential support prior to that is .7869 (current price) and .7800.
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

We maintain that the decline from the November 2007 high at 1.4966 is the wave 3 top within a 5 wave advance from the June 2007 low at 1.3261.  Since 1.4966, the EURUSD has either completed a flat as wave 4 or a triangle is still unfolding as wave 4. Either way, higher prices are expected in the coming weeks with objectives in the mid 1.50s. This could complete larger wave 3 within the 5 wave advance from the November 2005 low at 1.1638.  
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

This is a close up view of what we are treating as wave d and expected wave e of the triangle (mentioned above).  One reason to favor the triangle scenario is that the rally from 1.4365 is not an impulse and can be counted as a 3 wave rally, which fits as wave d of the triangle. Expect wave e to end near 1.4589/1.4659; this is the 61.8% to 50% of 1.4365-1.4953. Expect the correction to take the better part of the week, if not the entire week.

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Longer term, we maintain that a 12 year triangle ended at 124.13 in June 2007 and that the USDJPY is headed lower for a test of its 1995 low at 81.12.  Since 124.13, the USDJPY has traced out a series of 1st and 2nd waves.  The decline should accelerate in the next month in wave 3 of 3.  This forecast remains intact as long as price is below 114.65.  

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

We maintain that the strong rally from 104.97 is a c wave that will complete a larger second wave as an expanded flat. Price is expected to exceed 107.92 and resistance should be strong in the 108.33/50 area. Look for a top and reversal near there. This count is intact as long a price is below 110.11.

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

For the first time in months, the GBPUSD daily count is clear. The pair has declined in 5 waves from 2.1160, indicating that a significant top is in place. The 5 wave decline is viewed as either wave 1 in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A in a 3 wave bear cycle.  In other words, longer term bearish potential is great. The rally underway now is either wave 2 or B and we will look for a top in the 2.0033-2.0463 zone. This corrective rally probably lasts for weeks if not most of this month.  

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

The rally from 1.9337 to 1.9957 is a 5 wave advance and is probably wave A within the A-B-C corrective rally. It is possible that a B wave low is in place at 1.9626. However, B waves are notoriously tricky and usually not as clear as the drop from 1.9957 is now. This has us thinking that a triangle or larger flat will occur before the wave C advance towards 2.00.

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

A corrective 4th wave rally may be underway now within the 5 wave decline from the October 2006 high at 1.2768. The USDCHF will likely trade in a choppy manner for the next month or so, but with an upside bias before a decline in a 5th wave completes the entire decline from the October 2006 high and gives way to a multi-year low.

The short term count in the USDCHF is not clear.  The bigger picture suggests that a larger 3rd wave could be complete and that the USDCHF is entering a multi-week corrective pattern that will give way to lower prices. Very short term, it is possible to count 5 waves up from 1.0728 to 1.0919. A corrective decline that ends below 1.0875 presents a short term bullish opportunity against 1.0728.   

The pattern in the USDCAD since the November low at .9055 is either an A-B-C rally that will lead to a new low (under .9055) or a 1-2 (expanded flat) base that will lead to a strong rally to new highs (suggesting that a multi-year USDCAD low is in place). Either way, price will come below .9755. Potential support from Fibonacci is at .9652 and .9511.

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


The short term picture is clear. The decline from 1.0378 is clearly a 5 wave decline and an a-b-c corrective rally is underway now towards 1.0117. The next level of resistance is Fibonacci resistance at 1.0184. Look for a top and reversal near these levels in order to position for a drop below .9755.

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


As long as the AUDUSD rallies in 5 waves and declines in 3 waves, there is no reason to adopt a bearish outlook.  The rally from .8512 is expected to exceed .9400 in the coming weeks. Objectives are near 1.00.

The spike low on 1/30 at .8817 may have completed a small 2nd wave within a 5 wave advance from .8512. As such, wave 3 is probably underway now. Look to get long on pullbacks. Potential support is at .8969 and .8941. Risk should be kept to .8817.

The drop on 1/22 to .7383 completed a large correction that had been underway since November. Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD trend remains up and an upside breakout will probably lead to a test of the July 2007 high at .8108.

The NZDUSD short term pattern is not clear. Still, given the daily count and the bullish AUDUSD count, it is reasonable to adopt a bullish stance against the 1/30 spike low (.7751). Potential support prior to that is .7869 and .7800.

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: The EURUSD did hit triangle resistance at 1.4900 (if a triangle is unfolding).  The next leg of the triangle will be lower in wave e in order to complete larger wave 4 before the thrust higher in wave 5 through 1.50.  Look to get bullish near 1.4575/1.4600 (the 61.8% of 1.4362-1.4910 is at 1.4571), against 1.4310, for a run at the mid 1.50’s.  The time sequence of the triangle favors the idea that wave d is complete.  The first leg of the triangle took 20 days, the next leg 17 days, this leg would be 6 days today…so a top today or tomorrow seems reasonable.  This time sequence would lead to a low that we look to buy in wave e sometime late next week.        
   
Strategy:  Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We still maintain that the strong rally from 104.97 is probably a c wave that will complete a larger second wave as an expanded flat.  If this count is correct, then price is expected to exceed 107.92 and resistance should be strong in the 108.33 area.  We will look to return to a bearish bias following a rally through 107.92 (against 110.11) for a drop to our objectives that are below 100 (near 97).  Near term, the pattern is not all that clear but this is what one would expect in a corrective sequence.  The path could be lower prices and a test of the mid 105s before a thrust higher to complete the correction.  Another reason to favor one more advance before the next big down leg is that the short term pattern resembles an inverse head and shoulders.  
  
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary: Yesterday we wrote that “a top for wave A might be in place at 1.9949.  Wave 5 of A appears to take the form of a diagonal (overlapping waves) and diagonals are usually fully retraced.  In this case, the origin of the diagonal is close to the 38.2% of 1.9337-1.9949 at 1.9715.  The next move is towards this level -- we will look to buy this dip.”  Look for the decline to accelerate in the next few days.  
      
Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.9960, target 1.9600
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We have continued to state that “the bias is bearish as long as price is below 1.1122…Bigger picture, the decline from 1.1122 is probably a 5th wave (of larger 3) and an objective is where wave 5 equals 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 -- at 1.0553.”  The USDCHF has broken lower and 1.0550 is in sight.
Strategy:  Flat (unfortunately we got out yesterday….too soon apparently)

Commentary:  The scenario that we have described recently is playing out.  Expectations are for a corrective rally that we will look to sell into.  Look for the rally from .9872 to face strong resistance in the 1.0125/84 zone.  This is the 50%-61.8% of 1.0378-.9872.  Former resistance is also at 1.0117.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  5 waves up from .8512 is complete at .9014 so expectations are for a decline to unfold over the next week or so that brings price back to the .8763/.8704 zone (this is the 50%-61.8% of .8512-.9014).  The pattern is the exact same as the USDCAD (but in the opposite direction).   
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The NZDUSD is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD and GBPUSD and USDCAD (but inverse).  Given that the GBPUSD, USDCAD, and AUDUSD all show clear 5 wave moves towards dollar weakness -- and that a countertrend 3 wave dollar rally is expected across the board, it is reasonable to expect a NZDUSD drop to at least .7648 (50% of .7383-.7913) or .7588 (61.8%) before the next advance.   
  
Strategy:  Bearish, against .7933, EXIT .7650

MONTHLY, WEEKLY and DAILY TRENDS are determined by rolling pivots (4 month, 4 week, and 5 day). When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      


Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: The triangle is playing out as expected.  The rally from 1.4365 is viewed as wave d within the a-b-c-d-e triangle and could be complete.  Potential resistance is at 1.4820 and 1.4900 (triangle resistance), although it is possible that wave d of the triangle is complete now at 1.4819.  The next leg of the triangle will be lower in wave e in order to complete larger wave 4 before the thrust higher in wave 5 through 1.50.  Look to get bullish near 1.4500, against 1.4310, for a run at the mid 1.50’s.  The time sequence of the triangle favors the idea that wave d is complete or very close to complete.  The first leg of the triangle took 20 days, the next leg 17 days, this leg would be 6 days today…so a top today or tomorrow seems reasonable.  This time sequence would lead to a low that we look to buy in wave e sometime late next week.        
   
Strategy:  Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We still maintain that the strong rally from 104.97 is probably a c wave that will complete a larger second wave as an expanded flat.  If this count is correct, then price is expected to exceed 107.92 and resistance should be strong in the 108.33 area.  We will look to return to a bearish bias following a rally through 107.92 (against 110.11) for a drop to our objectives that are below 100 (near 97).  
  
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: Yesterday we wrote that “we view the entire decline from 2.1160 as wave 1 or A in a 5 or 3 wave bear cycle.  Therefore the rally from 1.9337 is viewed as wave A of the 3 wave countertrend rally.  Look for price to come into the 1.9563/1.9702 zone before another rally completes the correction sequence from 1.9337.”  A top for wave A might be in place at 1.9949.  Wave 5 of A appears to take the form of a diagonal (overlapping waves) and diagonals are usually fully retraced.  In this case, the origin of the diagonal is close to the 38.2% of 1.9337-1.9949 at 1.9715.  The next move is towards this level -- we will look to buy this dip.        
Strategy:  Flat
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  The bias is bearish as long as price is below 1.1122 but it is possible that we see a push through 1.0988 in order to complete an expanded flat.  Bigger picture, the decline from 1.1122 is probably a 5th wave (of larger 3) and an objective is where wave 5 equals 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 -- at 1.0553.
Strategy:  Exit bearish position

Commentary:  The scenario that we have described recently is playing out.  Expectations are for a corrective rally that we will look to sell into.  The drop below 1.0012 does complete 5 waves down from 1.0378 and the mentioned corrective advance is expected to begin soon and bring price back to at least 1.0117 in what is either a 2nd wave or B wave.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  5 waves up from .8512 are very close to complete so expect a multi-day corrective decline to begin soon that brings price back to the .8750 level.  This will present a buying opportunity for the run to the mid .90s.  
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  The NZDUSD is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD and GBPUSD and USDCAD (but inverse).  Given that the GBPUSD, USDCAD, and AUDUSD all show clear 5 wave moves towards dollar weakness -- and that a countertrend 3 wave dollar rally is expected across the board, it is reasonable to expect a NZDUSD drop to at least .7639 (38.2% of .7383-.7796) or .7663 (structural support) before the next advance.   
  
Strategy:  Bearish, against .7933, EXIT near .7700
MONTHLY, WEEKLY and DAILY TRENDS are determined by rolling pivots (4 month, 4 week, and 5 day). When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      


Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: The triangle is playing out as expected.  The rally from 1.4365 is viewed as wave d within the a-b-c-d-e triangle.  Look for resistance in the 1.4740 area for this leg of the triangle.  The next leg of the triangle will be lower in wave e in order to complete larger wave 4 before the thrust higher in wave 5 through 1.50.      
   
Strategy:  Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  The strong rally from 104.97 is probably a c wave that will complete a larger second wave as an expanded flat.  If this count is correct, then price is expected to exceed 107.92 and resistance should be strong in the 108.33 area.  We will look to return to a bearish bias following a rally through 107.92 (against 110.11) for a drop to our objectives that are below 100 (near 97).   
  
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the drop to 1.9337 might have formed a tradeable bottom.  One count in the GBPUSD suggests that a multi-week low is in place as there are 5 waves down from 2.1160.  Under this count, the decline from 2.1160 is either wave A or 1 in a 3 or 5 wave bear cycle.  The pair is expected to rally in either wave B or 2.”  Cable has rallied nicely and resistance is not until 1.9791 although bullish potential is much greater.
Strategy:  Bullish, move risk to 1.9462 (from 1.9337), target TBD
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We still favor the idea that the USDCHF decline is extending as long as price is below 1.1122.  The advance from 1.0836 to 1.1122 is clearly in 3 waves, indicating that the move is countertrend and that a new low will be registered.  Be aware that the decline from 1.1122 is probably a 5th wave (of larger 3).  An objective is where wave 5 equals 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 -- at 1.0553.
Strategy:  Bearish, from 1.1122, target 1.0560

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “weakness is expected to at least 1.0124 (1/15 low) -- which is defended by the 38.2% of .9755-1.0378 at 1.0140.  We’ll look for an opportunity to get long near this support.”  Well, the USDCAD has come into the mentioned support level.  The decline from 1.0378 is probably a second wave and second waves are usually deep.  Given that we expect USD weakness with other pairs, price coming down towards the 61.8% at .9993 seems reasonable.  For now, stand aside.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  Please see our special report on the AUDUSD from last week.  The near term picture has been a mess recently….very choppy and difficult to manage risk.  On the daily chart, the decline from .9400 could be the beginning of something much bigger (as discussed in the special report).  This short term bearish count shown above is valid as long as price is below .8880.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary:  Our contention remains that the decline is not complete.  Price needs to come at least under .7365 (wave A) before we can begin looking for a bottom.  Also, the decline from .7933 is wave iii of C so even a corrective rally in wave iv will give way to lower prices.  A potential terminus for the decline is the 61.8% of 6639-.7891 at .7118.  The bearish is bias as long as price is below .7933.
  
Strategy:  Bearish now, against .7933, target TBD
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆: Slope of the 200 day SMA

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about

hefeiddd

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “bigger picture, we remain bullish due to the count that treats the rally from 1.4310 as wave 5 in the 5 wave rally from 1.3261.  At this point, we are unsure of the correct count from 1.4310 but this is one that we are working with now.  One reason that we think this one correct is that the decline stopped in the area of the former 4th wave (as it is counted here).”  Evidence on the short term charts (15 minute) suggests that the structure remains bullish -- a rally through 1.4715 would instill confidence in the bullish bias.  
   
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.4610, target TBD (probably near 1.52/53)
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  It seems likely now that a larger correction is unfolding from 105.91.  Corrections unfold in 3 waves (A-B-C) and wave C is underway now.  Resistance should be strong in the 108.35/50 area; which is the confluence of the 61.8% of 110.11-105.91, 100% extension of 105.91-107.92/106.35, and 1/15 high.  We will look for a top and reversal near there.   
  
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “given the shelf of support just below 1.9500, the rally this morning makes it possible that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 1.9483.  As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.9524 for a rally to at least the 2.0100 level (former resistance).  We do not know yet of course whether or not the decline from 2.1160 will complete 5 waves -- so far the decline is in just 3 waves.  Recent COT data argues for a significant GBP low to form.”  We stand by this analysis and expect the Pound to continue gaining.
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.9524, target TBD
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the high tonight was at 1.1087 and reward to risk is now favorable for bears.  The pair should drop below 1.0836 in the next few days.”  Similar to the EURUSD (but inverse), a drop below 1.0953 would instill confidence in the bearish bias.  This decline could accelerate near term since the decline from 1.1063 is probably a 3rd wave.
Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.1190, target below 1.0836

Commentary:  See yesterday’s analysis for the longer term chart and analysis.  Near term, the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves and is either wave C of an A-B-C rally from .9055 or is just wave 1 of either a larger C or 3.  Given that the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves, weakness is expected to at least 1.0124 (1/15 low) -- which is defended by the 38.2% of .9755-1.0305 at 1.0094.  Aggressive traders can look to get short against 1.0305 for a drop to mentioned support.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We maintain a bullish bias above .8682 but the decline from just above .9000 has us a bit worried.  “Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway.  Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001.  Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone.”  We will reconsider if proved wrong; which requires a drop below .8682.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8682, target TBD

Commentary:  NZDUSD continues to confound.  The daily count that we were working with treats the rally from .7365 as an ending diagonal as wave 5 within the 5 wave rally from .6639.  However, wave v within the diagonal never exceeded wave iii of the diagonal.  If the diagonal has already topped, then wave v would be considered truncated; which is rare.  For this reason, our confidence in any count right now is not high.  A drop below the support line (shown on the chart) would warrant a breakout strategy.
  
Strategy:  Flat
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆: Slope of the 200 day SMA

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: So much for the EURUSD being in the buy zone as we wrote yesterday.  Bigger picture, we remain bullish due to the count that treats the rally from 1.4310 as wave 5 in the 5 wave rally from 1.3261.  At this point, we are unsure of the correct count from 1.4310 but this is one that we are working with now.  One reason that we think this one correct is that the decline stopped in the area of the former 4th wave (as it is counted here).  Another possibility is that the EURUSD remains in a large complex correction from 1.4966.  Be sure to check FXCMTR and Top/Bottom updates throughout the day…we are watching the short term pattern closely.   
   
Strategy:  Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “If you wish to take advantage of this bear leg that we expect to drop below 100 (objectives are near 97.50), then resistance should be strong at 107.22 and the bias is bearish as long as price is below 108.33.”  Price has remained below 108.33 and risk can be moved to 107.88 at this point.   
  
Strategy: Bearish, against 1107.88, target below 100
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “given the shelf of support just below 1.9500, the rally this morning makes it possible that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 1.9483.  As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.9524 for a rally to at least the 2.0100 level (former resistance).  We do not know yet of course whether or not the decline from 2.1160 will complete 5 waves -- so far the decline is in just 3 waves.  Recent COT data argues for a significant GBP low to form.”  We stand by this analysis and expect the Pound to continue gaining.  For more on Cable, see Pound Explosion.
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.9524, target TBD
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “we still expect a rally but the corrective advance unfolding from 1.0884 is probably an expanded flat.  The flat would be complete following a rally through 1.0948.  Resistance is in the 1.0978/1.1046 zone and the bias is bearish as long as price is below 1.1190.”  The high tonight was at 1.1087 and reward to risk is now favorable for bears.  The pair should drop below 1.0836 in the next few days.
Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.1190, target below 1.0836


Commentary:  As mentioned yesterday, our previously alternate count is now the favored one; and the bullish potential is great.  The next level of resistance is the 200 day SMA at 1.0364, but the next level of chart resistance is not until 1.0866.  A measured objective is at 1.0915 (extension).  The rally from .9755 is the first wave in a larger 5 wave advance so we are waiting for a setback in order to get bullish against .9755.

Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We maintain a bullish bias above .8682 but the decline from just above .9000 has us a bit worried.  “Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway.  Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001.  Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone.”  We will reconsider if proved wrong; which requires a drop below .8682.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8682, target TBD

Commentary:  Strategy has remained flat recently and that is because we have honestly had no idea what is going on with NZDUSD.  Yesterday’s violent drop is from the top.  Typically, violent declines occur in the middle of moves, not at the beginning.  This is why we find this quick decline suspect.  That, and that other counts are dollar bearish.  In looking at the decline at close range (15 min chart), the drop is actually corrective (3 waves), and is probable a second wave zigzag.  As such, a bullish bias is warranted.  

Strategy:  Bullish, against .7641, target TBD
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆: Slope of the 200 day SMA

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the EURUSD is likely to drift lower near term into a support zone from 1.4762 to 1.4818.  Still, the EURUSD is very bullish as long as price is above 1.4639.  As we have mentioned recently, objectives are in the 1.5200/1.5300 area.”  The pair has come right into this zone and has bounced.  Again, the bias is bullish as long as price is above 1.4639 and our target is above 1.5200.      
   
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.4639, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  The break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy.  We did mention that we “favored a rally to exceed 110.11 as an expanded flat (shown as a-b-c) before the next bearish leg.”  That obviously did not happen as the pair broken below 106.00 this morning.  If you wish to take advantage of this bear leg that we expect to drop below 100 (objectives are near 97.50), then resistance should be strong at 107.22 and the bias is bearish as long as price is below 108.33.  
  
Strategy: Get bearish near 107.20, against 108.40, target below 100
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “given the shelf of support just below 1.9500, the rally this morning makes it possible that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 1.9483.  As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.9524 for a rally to at least the 2.0100 level (former resistance).  We do not know yet of course whether or not the decline from 2.1160 will complete 5 waves -- so far the decline is in just 3 waves.  Recent COT data argues for a significant GBP low to form.”  We stand by this analysis and expect the Pound to continue gaining.     
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.9524, target TBD
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  Near term, we still expect a rally but the corrective advance unfolding from 1.0884 is probably an expanded flat.  The flat would be complete following a rally through 1.0948.  Resistance is in the 1.0978/1.1046 zone and the bias is bearish as long as price is below 1.1190.  We do not have any clear targets at this point.  Given the unfavorable reward/risk ratio at the current juncture, we advocate pursuing opportunities elsewhere.         
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  We have mentioned the last few days that our confidence in the USDCAD bearish structure was low.  This morning’s push through 1.0248 negates the bearish outlook.  Our previously alternate count is now the favored one; and the bullish potential is great.  The next level of resistance is the 200 day SMA at 1.0364, but the next level of chart resistance is not until 1.0866.  A measured objective is at 1.0915 (extension).  We are waiting for the short term pattern to offer a lower risk bullish entry.   
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248 BUT look to exit near 1.0050 if given the chance
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We maintain a bullish bias above .8682 but the decline from just above .9000 has us a bit worried.  “The AUDUSD is in the same position as the EURUSD.  Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway.  Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001.  Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone.”  We will reconsider if proved wrong; which requires a drop below .8682.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8682, target TBD

Commentary:  Strategy has remained flat recently and that is because we have honestly had no idea what is going on with NZDUSD.  Yesterday’s violent drop is from the top.  Typically, violent declines occur in the middle of moves, not at the beginning.  This is why we find this quick decline suspect.  That, and that other counts are dollar bearish.  The count on the above chart is one that we had showed in previous months and at this point is favored…but confidence is too low for us to commit at this point.  
  
Strategy:  Flat
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: We were correct in flipping to a bullish stance on Friday near 1.4650.  There is still a slight possibility that a triangle is unfolding as larger wave 4 from 1.4966 but the surge from 1.4640 is characteristic of a 3rd wave.  In this case, the advance would be a 3rd of a 3rd wave (of larger 5).  The bullish bias is strong as long as price is above 1.4569.  Measured objectives are near 1.5200/1.5300.
   
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.4569, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We must respect the bearish potential, which is great  because the decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13.  A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy.  Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to exceed 110.11 as an expanded flat before the next bearish leg.  If the decline from 110.11 unfolds in 5 waves, then we will get bearish on the setback.      
  
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: Near term price action does suggest that Cable decline extending.  “The decline from 2.0101 is in its 3rd wave and has the potential to 1.9119, which happens to intersect with the March lows of 2007 at 1.9182.  This bearish bias holds as long as price is below 1.9848.”  A drop below 1.9483 would possibly complete a diagonal from 2.0101 and give way to a violent upward reversal.  See our special report from Friday at Cable.
Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.9848, move target to 1.9450
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  The USDCHF count is the same as the EURUSD count, but flipped over.  That is, the decline from 1.1594 is viewed as wave 1 within a 5 wave bear cycle and wave 2 is the rally to 1.1190.  Wave 3 lower is underway now and a bearish bias is warranted as long as price is below 1.1190.  Wave 1 of 3 is possibly complete at 1.0884 and a corrective rally could test the former 4th wave congestion at 1.0975/1.1047 before a more pronounced decline unfolds.         
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  We are not too confident in the bearish USDCAD bias right now.  Previously, we wrote that “either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080.  Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500.  The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.”  The alternate bullish count treats the rally from .9841 as wave 3 instead of c, which means that the rally could accelerate.   

Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway.  Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001.  Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone.  We wrote Friday that “support should be strong near .8900.”  The low Friday was at .8890 and the pair has vaulted higher.  Again, resistance should be strong near .8890…the bullish bias is strong as long as price is above .8682.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8682, target TBD

Commentary:  Kiwi has simply exploded higher and is on the verge of taking out the December high at .7937.  Our bearish bias was proved wrong but we are not comfortable adopting a bullish bias at the current juncture as the pair presses against resistance.  One count treats the entire rally from .7365 as an ending diagonal -- which would be considered complete following a rally through .7937.      
  
Strategy:  Flat
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆: Slope of the 200 day SMA

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: The short term bearish stance did not work out too well.  There is still a slight possibility that a triangle is unfolding as larger wave 4 from 1.4966 but the surge from 1.4640 is characteristic of a 3rd wave.  In this case, the advance would be a 3rd of a 3rd wave (of larger 5).  Support should be strong near a former congestion area of 1.4723/51 (this is also the 38.2%-50% of 1.4642-1.4813.
   
Strategy:  Not stopped out of bearish position yet….but looking to flip bullish at 1.4750, against 1.4642
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  As mentioned every day this week, we must respect the bearish potential, which is great  because the decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13.  A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy.  Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to the 111.50 area (about the 50% retrace of 114.65-108.22 and former congestion) in order to complete wave 2 before the next bear leg begins.  Near term, aggressive traders may adopt a bullish bias above 108.58 but look to flip near 111.50.  
  
Strategy: Looking for a bearish entry near 111.50
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary: We are sticking to our count that is suggestive of the Cable decline extending.  “1.9530 has been our bearish target as the 161.8% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 is at 1.9525.  Still, the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete.  The decline from 2.0101 is in its 3rd wave and has the potential to 1.9119, which happens to intersect with the March lows of 2007 at 1.9182.  This bearish bias holds as long as price is below 1.9848.”      
Strategy:  Bearish, move risk to 1.9848 (from 2.0101), target 1.9150
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  The USDCHF count is the same as the EURUSD count, but flipped over.  That is, the decline from 1.1594 is viewed as wave 1 within a 5 wave bear cycle and wave 2 is the rally to 1.1190.  Wave 3 lower is underway now and a bearish bias is warranted as long as price is below 1.1190.  Resistance should be strong near 1.1075/98 (50%-61.8% of 1.1172-1.0978).         
Strategy:  Flat

Commentary:  We are not too confident in the bearish USDCAD bias right now.  Previously, we wrote that “either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080.  Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500.  The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.”  The alternate bullish count treats the rally from .9841 as wave 3 instead of c, which means that the rally could accelerate.
   
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We were wrong to favor the idea that a larger more complex flat was unfolding.  Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway.  Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001.  Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone.  Support should be strong near .8900.
Strategy: Get bullish near .8900, against .8682, target TBD

Commentary:  Kiwi has simply exploded higher and is on the verge of taking out the December high at .7937.  Our bearish bias was proved wrong but we are not comfortable adopting a bullish bias at the current juncture as the pair presses against resistance.  One count treats the entire rally from .7365 as an ending diagonal -- which would be considered complete following a rally through .7937.      
  
Strategy:  Flat
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆: Slope of the 200 day SMA

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: There is no change to the call for a decline to come under 1.4569.  Preferably price remains below 1.4742 (yesterday’s high) but the bias is bearish as long as price is below 1.4824.  “The rally to 1.4823 is now viewed as wave b of an expanded flat within larger wave 2 of the 5 wave rally that began from 1.4310.  Minimum expectations are for the decline to come under 1.4569 before the next bull leg begins.  Very near term resistance should be strong at 1.4720.  A bearish target is 1.4480.  There is the possibility that the decline does extend much lower (given the strong pessimism surrounding the USD).
   
Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.4823, target 1 at 1.4480 (hold on to half though)
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  As mentioned every day this week, and we must respect the bearish potential, which is great  because the decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13.  A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy.  Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to the 111.50 area (about the 50% retrace of 114.65-108.22 and former congestion) in order to complete wave 2 before the next bear leg begins.  Near term, aggressive traders may adopt a bullish bias above 108.58 but look to flip near 111.50.  
  
Strategy: Looking for a bearish entry near 111.50
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: 1.9530 has been our bearish target as the 161.8% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 is at 1.9525.  Still, the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete.  The decline from 2.0101 is in its 3rd wave and has the potential to 1.9119, which happens to intersect with the March lows of 2007 at 1.9182.  This bearish bias holds as long as price is below 1.9848.      
Strategy:  Bearish, move risk to 1.9848 (from 2.0101), move target from 1.9530 to 1.9150.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We maintain that the USDCHF will continue to rally in wave 2 (within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.1594).  Expect this rally to test the 1.1375 area (former 4th wave is at 1.1371 and 61.8% of 1.1594-1.1018 is at 1.1374).  This fits with a EURUSD decline to the 1.4500 area before the next leg of dollar bearishness gets underway.         
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.1018, target 1.1370

Commentary:  We are not too confident in the bearish USDCAD bias right now.  Previously, we wrote that “either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080.  Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500.  The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.”  The alternate bullish count treats the rally from .9841 as wave 3 instead of c, which means that the rally could accelerate.
   
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We have favored recently that wave 3 within a 5 wave bull cycle from .8549 is underway but given the strong signs that the dollar will strengthen across the board for at least the next few days, we are abandoning the bullish bias (for now).  Instead of wave 3 higher being underway, the recent top at .8859 could be a b wave top within a larger wave 2 correction.  This means that wave c will bring the Aussie below .8682 (if only slightly) before the real bull leg begins.
Strategy: Exit bullish position

Commentary:  We maintain that NZDUSD is about to drop below .7435 to complete a large C wave.  The decline from .7937 to .7507 is a 5 wave decline and is either  wave 1 down in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A down in a 3 wave bear cycle (either way…a drop below .7507 is expected).  The rally to .7791 is best counted as a 3 wave advance and the 61.8% retrace of .7937-.7507 has held twice.     
  
Strategy:  Bearish, from .7791, target below .7435

JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆: Slope of the 200 day SMA
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: There is no change to the call for a decline to come under 1.4569.  In fact, price action from yesterday reinforces our near term bearish bias.  Price seems to have put in a ceiling just below 1.4750.  “The rally to 1.4823 is now viewed as wave b of an expanded flat within larger wave 2 of the 5 wave rally that began from 1.4310.  Minimum expectations are for the decline to come under 1.4569 before the next bull leg begins.  Resistance should be strong near 1.4750.”
   
Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.4823, target TBD

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  The argument is strong that the decline from 114.65 is in 5 waves, and we must respect the bearish potential, which is great.  The decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13.  A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy.  Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to the 111.50 area (about the 50% retrace of 114.65-108.22) in order to complete wave 2 before the next bear leg begins.  Near term, aggressive traders may adopt a bullish bias above 108.58 but look to flip near 111.50.  
  
Strategy: Flat

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary: We have continued to mention that “the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete.  If the decline from 2.0101 is a 5th wave, then the fall should divide into 5 waves itself.”  Still, the decline from 2.0101 is not in 5 waves.  Also, the short term EURUSD bearish bias favors additional GBPUSD losses.  Measured objectives are at 1.9525 (161.8% extension) and 1.9450 (wave v = wave i).  
  
Strategy:  Bearish, against 2.0101, target 1.9530

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  We maintain that the USDCHF will continue to rally in wave 2 (within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.1594).  Expect this rally to test the 1.1375 area (former 4th wave is at 1.1371 and 61.8% of 1.1594-1.1018 is at 1.1374).  This fits with a EURUSD decline to the 1.4500 area before the next leg of dollar bearishness gets underway.         

Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.1018, target 1.1370  



Commentary:  Either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080.  Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500.  The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.  
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  We have favored recently that wave 3 within a 5 wave bull cycle from .8549 is underway but given the strong signs that the dollar will strengthen across the board for at least the next few days, we are abandoning the bullish bias (for now).  Instead of wave 3 higher being underway, the recent top at .8859 could be a b wave top within a larger wave 2 correction.  This means that wave c will bring the Aussie below .8682 (if only slightly) before the real bull leg begins.  

Strategy: Exit bullish position



Commentary:  We maintain that NZDUSD is about to drop below .7435 to complete a large C wave.  The decline from .7937 to .7507 is a 5 wave decline and is either  wave 1 down in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A down in a 3 wave bear cycle (either way…a drop below .7507 is expected).  The rally to .7791 is best counted as a 3 wave advance and the 61.8% retrace of .7937-.7507 has held twice.     
  
Strategy:  Bearish, from .7791, target below .7435


JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.  When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.  When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.  If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆:  Slope of the 200 day SMA

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: There is no change from yesterday.  “Based on the structure of the decline from 1.4824, we favor what was an alternate scenario, which is in red on the chart.  The rally to 1.4823 is now viewed as wave b of an expanded flat within larger wave 2 of the 5 wave rally that began from 1.4310.  Minimum expectations are for the decline to come under 1.4569 before the next bull leg begins.  Resistance should be strong near 1.4750.”
   
Strategy:  Bearish, against 1.4823, target TBD

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  The argument is strong that the decline from 114.65 is in 5 waves, and we must respect the bearish potential, which is great.  The decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13.  A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy.  Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to the 111.50 area (about the 50% retrace of 114.65-108.22) in order to complete wave 2 before the next bear leg begins.  Near term, aggressive traders may adopt a bullish bias above 108.58 but look to flip near 111.50.  
  
Strategy: Flat

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary: We maintain that “the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete.  If the decline from 2.0101 is a 5th wave, then the fall should divide into 5 waves itself.”  At this point, the decline from 2.0101 is not in 5 waves.  Also, the short term EURUSD bearish bias favors additional GBPUSD losses.  A measured objective is at 1.9525.  Cable may need to spike above 1.9889 before the next decline begins (this would complete an expanded flat).   

Strategy:  Bearish, against 2.0101, target 1.9530

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  After reviewing the charts, we favor the idea that a rally in wave 2 within a 5 wave bear cycle from 1.1594 is underway.  Expect this rally to test the 1.1375 area (former 4th wave is at 1.1371 and 61.8% of 1.1594-1.1018 is at 1.1374).  This fits with a EURUSD decline to the 1.4500 area before the next leg of dollar bearishness gets underway.   

Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.1018, target 1.1370  



Commentary:  Either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080.  Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500.  The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.  

Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  Last week, we wrote that “the correction from .9400 is either complete at .8749 or close to complete.  We expect the next advance to exceed .9400 and possibly test 1.0000 in order to compete a large A-B-C advance of Cycle degree that began in 2001.  Near term, the last part of wave 1 is ending as a diagonal which began at .8709.  A decline to this level would complete wave 2.”  The pair dropped to .8697 Friday before reversing higher.  Wave 3 higher may be underway now.  If not, then the next level of potential support is at .8664 (Fibonacci).

Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400




Commentary:  Contiuing with our theme that the AUD and NZD may have diverged, we maintain that NZDUSD is about to drop below .7435 to complete a large C wave.  The decline from .7937 to .7507 is a 5 wave decline and is either  wave 1 down in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A down in a 3 wave bear cycle (either way…a drop below .7507 is expected).  The rally to .7791 is best counted as a 3 wave advance and the 61.8% retrace of .7937-.7507 has held twice.     
  
Strategy:  Bearish, from .7791, target below .7435




JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.  When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.  When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.  If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆:  Slope of the 200 day SMA Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

hefeiddd

Commentary: We presented the very bullish count on Friday; that had the rally from 1.4569 as wave 3 within the 5 wave advance from 1.4310.  However, based on the structure of the decline from 1.4824, we favor what was an alternate scenario, which is in red on the chart.  The rally to 1.4823 is now viewed as wave b of an expanded flat within larger wave 2 of the 5 wave rally that began from 1.4310.  Minimum expectations are for the decline to come under 1.4569 before the next bull leg begins.  Resistance should be strong near 1.4750.
   
Strategy:  Exit bullish position and get bearish near 1.4730, against 1.4823, target TBD

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  The count that we were focused on late last week had the USDJPY rallying higher; through 114.65 in order to complete a larger more complex correction from 107.20.  However, with the argument strong that the decline from 114.65 is now in 5 waves, we must respect the bearish potential, which is great.  The decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13.  A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy.  It is also possible that a small second wave correction is complete at 107.72.  Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to the 111.50 area (about the 50% retrace of 114.65-108.22) in order to complete wave 2.  
  
Strategy: Flat

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary: We maintain that “the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete.  If the decline from 2.0101 is a 5th wave, then the fall should divide into 5 waves itself.”  At this point, the decline from 2.0101 is not in 5 waves.  Also, the short term EURUSD bearish bias favors additional GBPUSD losses.  A measured objective is at 1.9525.  

Strategy:  Bearish, against 2.0101, target 1.9530

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  The bearish bias remains strong as long as the USDCHF is below 1.1371.  The decline from 1.1371 is not especially clear itself but we are treating it as the beginning of the wave 3 decline within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.1594.  Very short term, the rally from 1.1018 is in 5 waves, so we do expect a bit more USDCHF strength (much like we expect short term EURUSD weakness).  Look for resistance near 1.1300 (weekly pivot and Fibo resistance) in order to sell against 1.1371 for a drop to new multi decade lows.  

Strategy:  Flat  



Commentary:  Either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is probably complete at 1.0080.  We wrote Friday that “ptential resistance is at the 61.8% of 1.0248-.9755 at 1.0060.  Look for a top and reversal in that area.  The next bearish leg should challenge .9500.”  The decline to at least .9500 is underway now.

Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  Last week, we wrote that “the correction from .9400 is either complete at .8749 or close to complete.  We expect the next advance to exceed .9400 and possibly test 1.0000 in order to compete a large A-B-C advance of Cycle degree that began in 2001.  Near term, the last part of wave 1 is ending as a diagonal which began at .8709.  A decline to this level would complete wave 2.”  The pair dropped to .8697 Friday before reversing higher.  Wave 3 higher may be underway now.  If not, then the next level of potential support is at .8664 (Fibonacci).

Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400



Commentary:  The NZDUSD may be about to fall…and hard.  The decline from .7937 to .7507 is a 5 wave decline and is either  wave 1 down in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A down in a 3 wave bear cycle (either way…a drop below .7507 is expected).  The rally to .7791 is best counted as a 3 wave advance and the 61.8% retrace of .7937-.7507 has held twice.     
  
Strategy:  Bearish, from .7791, target below .7435


JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.  When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.  When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.  If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆:  Slope of the 200 day SMA

hefeiddd

Commentary: The EURUSD may have entered wave iii of 3 of larger 5.  If this is the case, then the rally will accelerate in the next few days.  Wave 3 higher is considered underway as long as price is above 1.4569.  From a bigger picture perspective, the FX market is being driven right now by fear (fearing the US dollar).  Fear is powerful and is the emotion that typically leads to parabolic moves.  
   
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.4687, target 1.5300
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  As long as price is above 107.20, we are sticking with the ‘larger correction scenario’.   “One possibility is that a larger more complex correction is unfolding and that this decline is just wave X.  Potential support is at 111.31 and 110.09 (100% and 161.8% extensions of 114.65-112.67/113.29).  The decline from 114.66, although sharp, is best counted as a triple zigzag (corrective).  We expect wave Y to end above 114.66 (probably near the 78.6% of 117.93-107.20 at 115.63.)”  Even if the decline from the 114.66 is an impulse, then a larger corrective advance is expected; which would offer the opportunity to get bearish.  
  
Strategy: Exit bearish position
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “additional losses seem likely near term as the form of the decline from 2.0101 looks far from complete.  1.9515 (161.8% of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0821) is potential support.”  After slipping to 1.9672 this morning, Cable has enjoyed a strong bounce, but the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete.  If the decline from 2.0101 is a 5th wave, then the fall should divide into 5 waves itself.  
Strategy:  Bearish, against 2.0101, target 1.9530
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We wrote yesterday that “the 1.1594-1.1226 USDCHF decline completed wave 1 within a 5 wave bear cycle and the rally to 1.1371 most likely completed wave 2.  Weakness since then is the beginning of wave 3 lower, which we expect to extend, possibly to the 161.8% extension of 1.1594-1.1226/1.1371 at 1.0779.  The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.1371.”  There is no change to this outlook.  
Strategy:  Bearish, move risk to 1.1163 (from 1.1371), target TBD

Commentary:  Near term, the USDCAD is completing wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse).  Potential resistance is at the 61.8% of 1.0248-.9755 at 1.0060.  Look for a top and reversal in that area.  The next bearish leg should challenge .9500.
Strategy: Get bearish bear 1.0060, target .9500
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  There is no change to the AUDUSD call for a dip to at least .8709 before a big move higher.  “The correction from .9400 is either complete at .8749 or close to complete.  We expect the next advance to exceed .9400 and possibly test 1.0000 in order to compete a large A-B-C advance of Cycle degree that began in 2001.  Near term, the last part of wave i is ending as a diagonal which began at .8709.  A decline to this level would complete wave ii.”
Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400

Commentary:  The NZDUSD may be about to fall…and hard.  The decline from .7937 to .7507 is a 5 wave decline and is either  wave 1 down in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A down in a 3 wave bear cycle (either way…a drop below .7507 is expected).  The rally to .7791 is best counted as a 3 wave advance and the 61.8% retrace of .7937-.7507 has held twice.     
  
Strategy:  Bearish, move risk to .7791 (from .7937), target below .7435

hefeiddd

Commentary: The larger trend remains bullish but we would still like to see a larger setback in wave 2.  An expanded flat might be unfolding from 1.4747.  If this is the case, then the EURUSD will dip below 1.4569 before the next leg higher begins; which we expect to challenge 1.5200/1.5300.     
   
Strategy:  Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  We Monday that “one possibility is that a larger more complex correction is unfolding and that this decline is just wave X.  Potential support is at 111.31 and 110.09 (100% and 161.8% extensions of 114.65-112.67/113.29).”  The USDJPY dipped to 108.23 this morning in what is probably the end of wave X.  The decline from 114.66, although sharp, is best counted as a triple zigzag (corrective).  We expect wave Y to end above 114.66 (probably near the 78.6% of 117.93-107.20 at 115.63.)  
  
Strategy: Exit bearish position
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary: We wrote on Monday to “expect a top and reversal in the 2.0069-2.0166 area.  This area is the 38.2%-50% level of 2.0576-1.9755.  The rally from 1.9755 should complete wave iv of C within the A-B-C correction from 2.1160.  We will be looking for a significant bottom to form in the 1.9500 area.”  After reversing at 2.0101 on Monday, the GBPUSD has come under the 12/24 low of 1.9755.  Additional losses seem likely near term as the form of the decline from 2.0101 looks far from complete.  1.9515 (161.8% of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0821) is potential support.   
Strategy:  Bearish, move risk to 2.0101 (from 2.0195), target 1.9530
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  The 1.1594-1.1226 USDCHF decline completed wave 1 within a 5 wave bear cycle and the rally to 1.1371 most likely completed wave 2.  Weakness since then is the beginning of wave 3 lower, which we expect to extend, possibly to the 161.8% extension of 1.1594-1.1226/1.1371 at 1.0779.  The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.1371.  
Strategy:  Get bearish near 1.1233-1.1287, against 1.1371, target TBD

Commentary:  Near term, the USDCAD is completing wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse).  Potential resistance is at the 61.8% of 1.0248-.9755 at 1.0060.  Look for a top and reversal in that area.  The next bearish leg should challenge .9500.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

Commentary:  The correction from .9400 is either complete at .8749 or close to complete.  We expect the next advance to exceed .9400 and possibly test 1.0000 in order to compete a large A-B-C advance of Cycle degree that began in 2001.  Near term, the last part of wave i is ending as a diagonal which began at .8709.  A decline to this level would complete wave ii.
Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400

Commentary:  We wrote last week that “wave i of C looks complete.7507.  As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity. “  As long as the pair is below .7794, a bearish bias is warranted.   
  
Strategy:  Bearish, against .7937, target below .7435

hefeiddd

Commentary: Larger wave 4 is complete at 1.4310 and wave 1 of the next larger degree is close to complete at 1.4750.  Wave 2 is likely to bring price back to the 1.4600 area (former 4th is at 1.4592).  A deeper correction is possible since this decline is a second wave (and second waves are usually deep).  The next leg higher will be a third wave and is expected to challenge 1.5200/1.5300 (but not before a dip to 1.4600).  Be sure to check out the Elliott Wave forum for intraday updates to the count.
   
Strategy:  Exit bullish position

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.




Commentary:  We wrote on Thursday that “the USDJPY hit 114.65 today and has reversed lower in what could be the start of the next bearish leg in a 5 wave bear sequence that began at 117.93.  A resistance line drawn off of the June and October highs supports a bearish bias.”  The bearish bias remains intact at this point.  One possibility is that a larger more complex correction is unfolding and that this decline is just wave X.  Potential support is at 111.31 and 110.09 (100% and 161.8% extensions of 114.65-112.67/113.29).  
  
Strategy: Bearish, move risk to 113.29 (from 114.65), target 110.20

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.




Commentary: Expect a top and reversal in the 2.0069-2.0166 area.  This area is the 38.2%-50% level of 2.0576-1.9755.  The rally from 1.9755 should complete wave iv of C within the A-B-C correction from 2.1160.  We will be looking for a significant bottom to form in the 1.9500 area.     

Strategy:  Bearish, against 2.0195, target 1.9530

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.




Commentary:  The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (but as the inverse).  Wave 1 down is close to complete at 1.1226.  Although a test of 1.1200 is possible, the next larger move will be in a wave 2 correction towards the 1.1400 area (much like the next EURUSD move is likely back to the 1.4600 area).  This bounce will present the next bearish opportunity.

Strategy:  Exit bearish position




Commentary:  Near term, expect a bounce in small wave iv of A towards the 38.2% of 1.0140-.9746 at .9902.  The USDCAD should roll over near this level and drop below .9755 in order to complete larger wave A from 1.0248.  A larger wave B bounce is then expected.  In summary, the USDCAD will likely trade in a choppy manner for the next several weeks.  

Strategy: Flat

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.




Commentary:  The correction from .9400 is complete and wave i of larger 5 is close to complete at .8825.  We expect the next advance to exceed .9400 and possibly test 1.0000 in order to compete a large A-B-C advance of Cycle degree that began in 2001.

Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400





Commentary:  We wrote last week that “wave i of C looks complete.7507.  As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity. “  The rally ended today at .7791 and the pair has come off nearly 100 pips.  The bearish bias remain intact.
  
Strategy:  Bearish, against .7937, target below .7435

hefeiddd

Commentary: Larger wave 4 is complete at 1.4310 and wave 1 of the next larger degree is close to complete at 1.4750.  Wave 2 is likely to bring price back to the 1.4600 area (former 4th is at 1.4592).  A deeper correction is possible since this decline is a second wave (and second waves are usually deep).  The next leg higher will be a third wave and is expected to challenge 1.5200/1.5300 (but not before a dip to 1.4600).  Be sure to check out the Elliott Wave forum for intraday updates to the count.
   
Strategy:  Exit bullish position

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.




Commentary:  We wrote on Thursday that “the USDJPY hit 114.65 today and has reversed lower in what could be the start of the next bearish leg in a 5 wave bear sequence that began at 117.93.  A resistance line drawn off of the June and October highs supports a bearish bias.”  The bearish bias remains intact at this point.  One possibility is that a larger more complex correction is unfolding and that this decline is just wave X.  Potential support is at 111.31 and 110.09 (100% and 161.8% extensions of 114.65-112.67/113.29).  
  
Strategy: Bearish, move risk to 113.29 (from 114.65), target 110.20

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary: Expect a top and reversal in the 2.0069-2.0166 area.  This area is the 38.2%-50% level of 2.0576-1.9755.  The rally from 1.9755 should complete wave iv of C within the A-B-C correction from 2.1160.  We will be looking for a significant bottom to form in the 1.9500 area.     

Strategy:  Bearish, against 2.0195, target 1.9530

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (but as the inverse).  Wave 1 down is close to complete at 1.1226.  Although a test of 1.1200 is possible, the next larger move will be in a wave 2 correction towards the 1.1400 area (much like the next EURUSD move is likely back to the 1.4600 area).  This bounce will present the next bearish opportunity.

Strategy:  Exit bearish position



Commentary:  Near term, expect a bounce in small wave iv of A towards the 38.2% of 1.0140-.9746 at .9902.  The USDCAD should roll over near this level and drop below .9755 in order to complete larger wave A from 1.0248.  A larger wave B bounce is then expected.  In summary, the USDCAD will likely trade in a choppy manner for the next several weeks.  

Strategy: Flat

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  The correction from .9400 is complete and wave i of larger 5 is close to complete at .8825.  We expect the next advance to exceed .9400 and possibly test 1.0000 in order to compete a large A-B-C advance of Cycle degree that began in 2001.

Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400



Commentary:  We wrote last week that “wave i of C looks complete.7507.  As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity. “  The rally ended today at .7791 and the pair has come off nearly 100 pips.  The bearish bias remain intact.
  
Strategy:  Bearish, against .7937, target below .7435



JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.  When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.  When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.      

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.  If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.  

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.  The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.  The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.  If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆:  Slope of the 200 day SMA

hefeiddd

Commentary: We wrote last week that “a potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “
The low last week was at 1.4310 and the EURUSD has rallied through 1.4600 already this week.
This is the beginning of a 5th wave rally that will exceed 1.5000 and likely test the mid 1.5000’s over the course of the next several months.

   
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.4309, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.






Commentary:  We wrote last week that the “USDJPY should rally from here into the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83 with 112.73 remaining intact.
A support line drawn off of the 11/26 and 12/11 lows reinforces the bullish bias.”
The USDJPY hit 114.65 today and has reversed lower in what could be the start of the next bearish leg in a 5 wave bear sequence that began at 117.93.
A resistance line drawn off of the June and October highs supports a bearish bias.

  
Strategy: Bearish, against 117.93, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.





Commentary: We wrote last week that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down and that the next objective is 1.9525.”
Wave iii of either C or 3 ended at 1.9755. A bounce in wave iv is underway now and should face resistance in the 2.0050/2.0100 area (near the 38.2% of iii).
Look for a top and reversal near there.


Strategy:
Flat
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.



Commentary:  We have been expecting a reversal at the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.
This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.
The high last week was at 1.159.
We wrote last week that “aggressive bears can consider getting bearish against 1.1594.”
A bearish bias is warranted against 1.1594.

Strategy:  Bearish against 1.1594, target below 1.0886  



Commentary:  We wrote last week that “the USDCAD is setting up for a big decline.”
Near term, the decline is in a 3rd wave lower.
Once 5 waves down are complete, we will look to get bearish on the corrective advance that is expected to occur.
Bigger picture, the decline is likely wave B of a large A-B-C corrective advance.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary:
Last week, we wrote that “it is possible that the correction is over at .8549, which is just shy of the 50% retrace level of .7673-.9400 and the 200 day SMA at .8532.
A cautious bullish bias is warranted against .8549.”
The AUDUSD has soared and is near .8800.
Like the EURUSD, this could be the beginning of a 5th wave that carries the pair near 1.0000.

Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400



Commentary:
Our favored count is thatwave c of a flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.  Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507.
As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity.
The alternate count has an ending diagonal unfolding from .7365 with the rally from .7507 as the beginning of wave 5 within the diagonal.
This count is gaining traction so be cautious on the bear side.
  
Strategy:  Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435

JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.
When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.
When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.


DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.
The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.
The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.
If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.
The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.
The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.
If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ∆:
Slope of the 200 day SMA

hefeiddd

Commentary: We wrote last week that “a potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “
The low last week was at 1.4310 and the EURUSD has rallied through 1.4600 already this week.
This is the beginning of a 5th wave rally that will exceed 1.5000 and likely test the mid 1.5000’s over the course of the next several months.

   
Strategy:  Bullish, against 1.4309, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We wrote last week that the “USDJPY should rally from here into the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83 with 112.73 remaining intact.
A support line drawn off of the 11/26 and 12/11 lows reinforces the bullish bias.”
The USDJPY hit 114.65 today and has reversed lower in what could be the start of the next bearish leg in a 5 wave bear sequence that began at 117.93.
A resistance line drawn off of the June and October highs supports a bearish bias.

  
Strategy: Bearish, against 117.93, target TBD
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary: We wrote last week that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down and that the next objective is 1.9525.”
Wave iii of either C or 3 ended at 1.9755. A bounce in wave iv is underway now and should face resistance in the 2.0050/2.0100 area (near the 38.2% of iii).
Look for a top and reversal near there.


Strategy:
Flat
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:  We have been expecting a reversal at the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594.
This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.
The high last week was at 1.159.
We wrote last week that “aggressive bears can consider getting bearish against 1.1594.”
A bearish bias is warranted against 1.1594.

Strategy:  Bearish against 1.1594, target below 1.0886



Commentary:  We wrote last week that “the USDCAD is setting up for a big decline.”
Near term, the decline is in a 3rd wave lower.
Once 5 waves down are complete, we will look to get bearish on the corrective advance that is expected to occur.
Bigger picture, the decline is likely wave B of a large A-B-C corrective advance.

Strategy: Flat

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.


Commentary:
Last week, we wrote that “it is possible that the correction is over at .8549, which is just shy of the 50% retrace level of .7673-.9400 and the 200 day SMA at .8532.
A cautious bullish bias is warranted against .8549.”
The AUDUSD has soared and is near .8800.
Like the EURUSD, this could be the beginning of a 5th wave that carries the pair near 1.0000.

Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400


Commentary:
Our favored count is thatwave c of a flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom.  Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507.
As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity.
The alternate count has an ending diagonal unfolding from .7365 with the rally from .7507 as the beginning of wave 5 within the diagonal.
This count is gaining traction so be cautious on the bear side.
  
Strategy:  Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot.
When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish.
When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.



DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend.
The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60.
The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40.
If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.


DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend.
The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70.
The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30.
If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ∆:
Slope of the 200 day SMA