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发表于 2008-1-28 21:50
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4H MACD交易策略的心脏
我做外汇半年多了，深感交易策略的重要，心中没有完整的对趋势、节奏的把握，常常两面挨耳光，没几下本金就损失殆尽。在http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14630看到一篇好贴，介绍4H下的MACD交易策略，发现简单、实用，适合许多上班业余玩外汇的人士，4小时看一次盘，可以很好的安排工作和学习，也不影响家庭生活，尤其是作者思路清晰，将市场节奏、指标设置、资金管理、止损设置、止损形态、趋势线、费那滋回调结合在具体交易中，多看几遍，就可以初步掌握该策略。
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这样的好文好方法，忍不住想介绍给大家，介绍给许许多多，在外汇市场搏杀的新手老手，新手是很好的入门课程，高手也可以抛砖引入。
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全面介绍4H MACD之前，我要感谢作者Phillip Nel，感谢他的大公无私将这么好的思路全面公开给大家。http://www.fx998.cn! |4 F: f5 R- i8 t" L
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计划将该贴重要部分连载在火线，中英文版希望大家喜欢，多多顶贴，鼓励我发完，最好加为精华，以便更多的朋友看到。http://www.fx998.cn/ y/ B. e" y9 v3 F
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原贴请到上面的连接看。
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首先发布的是：
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The Heart of This Systemhttp://www.fx998.cn1 B9 M2 v& d. }/ t6 m. a
4H MACD交易策略的心脏
．4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy 到这里看 http://bbs.fx998.com/thread-33842-1-1.html
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剩下的根据需要，选择翻译。http://www.fx998.cn
The Heart of This System
4H MACD交易策略的心脏
黄色：200 SMA
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Right, I’m going to do that market rhythm once again, just for the new people coming in. I’m going to put in on Post number 1 as the #1 important file they have to go to, apart from reading the original .pdf file. FOR THIS IS THE HEART OF THIS SYSTEM. http://www.fx998.cn G; n+ j: B+ x# W
对的，我准备将那个市场的节奏再讲一遍，为这些新来的人。我准备将他放到第一贴的位置，作为他们要看的不得不看的最重要的文件，出了阅读4H MACD交易策略原始版之外的最重要的文件。因为这是4H MACD交易策略的心脏。http://www.fx998.cn' [$ f' b- ~1 L
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Now if you look at the picture above, on the graph. On the left hand side the price come down below the 89 and 200 and came down to point number 2. Then there’s a pull back to the 21EMA. Then the price closes above the 21EMA and then it back below the 21EMA and point number 3. And then it closes back up at the 89. That is the rhythm at the end of either a down move or an up move. http://www.fx998.cn3 ~7 y# {+ N# u# A( h& {/ E
现在只要看看上面的图形，在图形上，左边从89和200均线跌下来，跌到2位置。这时发生了一个拉回到21EMA。然后价格紧紧靠着21ema之上，然后又跌到21ema之下到达位置3，然后又向89均线上涨。这种上上下下的价格运动就是市场节奏。http://www.fx998.cn5 @& u! s, n4 ], H% f/ o2 K1 `! }
cnWhat I included here is if you look between the yellow line (the 200 SMA) and the blue line the (89SMA). Look at that rectangle that I’ve drawn there. The price has been confined in between the two moving averages, which is very important to notice that it oscillates between them before it gets direction. Now look at the MACD at the bottom. People trading just the MACD are going to get burned there. You HAVE TO KNOW the Rhythm of the Market. Between the confined spaces like that, those two moving averages, the market is oscillating between them. So if you want to get involved there in trading, you have to trade off the edges. Because the market is not in a trend, it is flat. You don’t need an indicator to tell you the market is flat now, you see it within those two moving averages. The moment the price went in between those two moving averages at point 4, crossing the 89 upwards and it didn’t go through the 200. And then it came down to the 89 again, it means it’s between those two moving averages. It did not go through the 89 coming down again. So now we either have to trade from the edges, taking them as support and resistance, or you have to wait for it to show direction. http://www.fx998.cn c+ `2 O, k1 N2 `- _, A
这里你看到的包括黄色的200SMA线和蓝色的89SMA线，你看我画的方框里面，价格被限制在两条均线之间，注意到市场在有方向前，价格在两条均线间振荡很重要。现在看看底部的MACD，人们交易如果仅仅知道MACD，将被市场灼伤。你不得不了解市场的节奏。就象这里限制的空间，市场在这两条均线间震荡。所以日过你准备介入交易，你要不得不在这个边缘以外交易，因为市场没有趋势，是平的。你不需要一个指标告诉你市场现在是平的，你从两条移动均线就看到了。价格在进入两条均线间的4位置，突然穿越89均线向上，但没有穿过200均线，然后又跌到89均线，这意味着价格会在这两均线间运动，他也没有再跌破89均线。所以现在你或者不得不沿着他们的边缘交易，依据他们作为阻力和支撑，或者等待他们选择方向。
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At point 5, that’s where it broke above the 200, and then that huge candle upward that broke upward was on a Friday afternoon, and I won’t get involved there. But just to the left of the number 6, if you look at the MACD on the bottom give you trend continuation pattern, a TC. Beautiful off the 8 EMA to get in there. Look what happens between point 6 and point 7. The price came below the 21, so what were we expecting according to the rhythm of the market? Expect it to go back to the 21 and then come down to the http://www.fx998.cn) P$ C* s- [6 z/ a( O C
89. But it did not! It kept on moving upwards. It just closed below the 21 and then it just carried on. That’s the two scenarios. It’s not to say that it is going to come down to the 89, that’s just the anticipation. And you have to wait until it proves it. If it doesn’t prove it, you don’t trade. It’s as easy as that.
+ S N9 l# i4 S7 V& mhttp://www.fx998.cn在位置5，那里他突破了200均线，突破向上的那个大阳线在周五的下午，我没有介入，在后面6的位置，如果你看下面的MACD，他告诉了你趋势继续的形态，一个TC，漂亮的脱离EMA8进入，看看6和7之间发生了什么，价格回到EMA21之下,，所以我们根据市场节奏期望什么呢？期望他回到EMA21，然后回到EMA89，但没有。市场一直向上， 他仅仅收在EMA21之下，然后继续进行。这是两个情节，这不是说价格将回到EMA89,这仅仅是预料，你不得不等待直到证明了这个预料，如果不能证明，不要交易，就是这样容易。
.cnWhat happened is only when it went up that huge candle. Look at that trend line I have at just above point number 6. The price went above it, it pulled back to it, and the 8EMA, the MACD at the bottom gives you a TC, a trend continuation pattern, you enter there and you’re well away. http://www.fx998.cn, G" @0 ?! e" o0 s4 c
那根向上的大阳线后发生了什么？看看趋势线，我画在6位置上面，价格到了6之上，价格又拉了回来，EMA8和MACD给你一个TC,一个趋势继续的形态，你从那进入，这是正确的方法。http://www.fx998.cn6 x( V0 T% y! t& W6 j' z) q% P
cnPoint number 8, the price starts coming back and closes below the 21. You won’t get it more perfect than that one. It came down below the 21 at point number 9 and pulled back to the 21 at point number 10, coming down to the 89. That’s the rhythm of the market. And that’s exactly where we have found ourselves since Monday morning (Jan. 7, 2008) in the market. We were at the 21 after a bit of an up move through the 89, it wasn’t a very strong up move, but it was an up move. Then the price came and closed below it. It pulled back to it, just above it, then it started coming down towards, well not the 89 in this case, but the reason why is that the 200 is between the 21 and the 89. But the price is still coming down, so there is nothing preventing it from coming down to the http://www.fx998.cn4 G5 V% r5 Q; d C" F
89.
在8处，价格开始往回走，收在EMA21下方，你再没有比这更完美的了，在9处跌到EMA21下方，10处回到EMA21，然后跌到89均线。这就是市场的节奏。这是我们周一早晨前（2008.1.8）所发现的准确市场节奏， 我们在ema21位置，一个向上移动穿过89均线，不是一个强的向上运动，但是一个向上的运动。然后价格到了，收在其下方，折回了。原因是200线在ema21和89均线之间，但是价格继续向下，这样再没有阻挡价格直到89均线。
cnSo for you people that just started this thread, I wanted you to hear this first. And the reason for it, is because this is the Heart of This System. The MACD plays a very important part, but the MACD is not the sole indicator that you use to pull the trigger. If you do that you will get burned. If you want to do that you have to take each and every MACD signal, you can’t miss a one, otherwise random is going to take you out. Or you have to take the good ones. And what I say to new people coming in, take the trend continuation patterns. The TC patterns which are off the 21. Or off the 8EMA if the price is constantly moving the along the 8EMA making those pull backs back to the 8EMA and then moves away. That’s a Trend Continuation pattern on the MACD. http://www.fx998.cn) t( h; }# K1 D6 K
对于刚开始尝试这种交易方法的人来说，我想你先听这个，原因是：这是4H MACD交易策略的心脏，MACD扮演重要的作用，但是MACD不是触发你交易的唯一指标，如果你那么做，很快就会死掉。如果你紧紧依靠MACD，你不得不依赖每个信号MACD，你一个也不能漏掉，或者随机的出场，或者你可能最好的那个。我要对新人说的是，做趋势继续的形态。TC形态（趋势继续形态）就是远离21EMA，或者远离8EMA，如果价格不变的沿着8EMA运动，或者折回8EMA，然后接着运动。这就是MACD上的趋势继续形态。
.cnBe very careful to take Round Tops and Round Bottoms. You got to know a bit more about the market emotions in terms of candles to take Round Tops and Round Bottoms. Unless it’s way over bought or over sold. Let’s say it’s moved above the 45 horizontal line on the MACD. You’ll see on the MACD indicator that there are some horizontal lines, that 15, 30 and 45. The reason they are there is to tell your how much oversold/overbought the pair are. So if it has moved a quite a lot above the 8EMA and your oversold above the 45 horizontal line and it starts giving a nice round top, you can enter on market emotion (on candles) and the MACD confirming the nice Round Top.
对于圆弧顶和圆弧底需要非常小心，你开始按K线了解一点市场特性，形成圆弧顶和圆弧底，无非是超买或超卖，也就是说超过MACD45水平线的时候。这些线你可以在MACD指标上看到这些水平线，还有15和30，他们告诉你这个货币对超卖超买的程度。所以价格运动在8EMA之上相当一阵子，macd 在45水平线上超卖位置，macd开始走出一个漂亮的圆弧顶，你可以按市场的脾气（按K线）进入，MACD确认了这个圆弧顶。http://www.fx998.cn; X4 j, M! N1 A* B# e
cnYou can go counter trend, but you must look at the 8EMA, because it can bounce off the 8EMA continuing or going on with the trend. So you have to take some profit there are cover the rest. With either a Break Even (BE) or use the little profit you’ve made to the 8ema as part of stop loss on the remainder. So that way if you are taken out, you get break even on the deal. Round Tops and Round Bottoms are counter trend and are always more risky than going with a trend. So I would suggest as a start to do your first month or two with only trend continuation patterns. In fact it you only trade Trend Continuation patterns you will succeed with a lot of pips every month. I guarantee you’ll get more than 300 per month on an average. There might me a month where you get only 150, but then there will be months that you get 450 or 500. So that’s what I tell people is to firstly due the trend continuation pattern.http://www.fx998.cn3 d0 \0 V' x2 r8 i4 m' M
你可以反趋势做，但你要看住EMA8，因为价格会试探远离8EMA继续或按趋势继续。所以一旦走出日内K线时，你最好了解一些利润。以打成平手或留下一部分利润作为剩下的头寸止损。所以如果你出来了，你打成平手。圆弧顶和圆弧底是逆势的，比趋势继续形具有更大的风险，所以我建议初学者第一、第二口交易只作趋势继续型。事实上如果你紧紧做趋势继续型，一个月下来你会赚很多点。我保证你平均至少会超过300点每月（EURUSD），这可能是我一个月的盈利，你可能只有150点，但今后你可能达到450点或500点。所以我告诉初学者从趋势继续型开始。
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5 q; f8 U: x) Hhttp://www.fx998.cnThis rhythm that I just showed you, you have to go back and see it for yourself. Go through and do some back testing. Another thing about back testing, in MT4, MetaTrader 4, if you scroll back on your chart and use “F12” (function key f12), you can shift only one candle at a time. Do that and that will help you as you don’t know what’s coming and you can make your decisions based on what you see on the chart. And see how well it goes with you and how well it doesn’t go. Don’t take every MACD signal. You CANNOT DO THAT. MACD is there to help you pull the trigger, yes, IF other things are in place. Like today’s trade (Jan. 9 ,2008), 12:00-16:00 candle you can see there that the MACD has just went through zero above and then pulled back and then gave a red signal/bar below the zero. We call that a zero break. Very slightly above the zero, I would have preferred it to be more visible, but it was there. What I like about it was if you look at the 8:00-12:00 candle, there was an engulfing candle that suggests that the market was coming down. And if even you look at the 1 hour chart, just to make sure about the emotion of the market at that specific point, you will see that there was an evening star that helped me make that decision. http://www.fx998.cn% R- M# A/ |2 T2 N1 S, Q- x
我将市场节奏秀给你看了，你最好回去再好好看看，往前看看复复盘。另一件事是复盘，MT4里，如果你移动你的图形用F12功能键，每次你只可以移动一根K线，这样做可以帮助你在不知道后面将怎么发展的情况根据图形状态来作决定，可以检查你判断的怎样。不要每一个MACD信号都交易，你一定不能那样做，MACD是帮助你触发交易，是的，当然其他条件都具备，当然可以那样交易。象今天的交易（2008.1.9日），12：00－16：00K线,你看到MACD正好穿过0轴，马上发生了一个折回，马上给出了一个红的信号，macd棒又到零以下了。我们叫这种情况是零突破，比0高那么一点，我喜欢更清楚一点的，但他不是我喜欢的这样。我喜欢这种的，你看8：00－12：00的K线，那是一根吞没K线表明市场马上向下了。如果你紧紧看1H线，正好以看到一个黄昏之星，确认市场转折发生在那一点，帮助你作出决定。
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So don’t just take the MACD itself. Familiarize yourself with the market motion and market rhythm as I’ve discussed it here on the graph that I’ve posted. Because that is the Heart of This System. And if the market is doing anything else in that rhythm you sit on the sidelines. You wait until it shows rhythm again. Not trending, not necessary that it be trending, although the biggest part of the profit lies in the trending market. But you can also see it when it’s coming down at the end of run when it comes down pulling back to under the 21EMA then goes back to the 21 EMA and then comes down to the 89. If there is a major moving average, like today, for example the 200SMA which was above the 89, it most probably only go back to the 200 and stay a little bit there. And if the information or the news, or whatever it is that drives the market is good enough or has some force behind it, it will most probably move through it and come down to the 89SMA.
所以不要仅仅按MACD交易，让你自己习惯按市场脾气和市场的节奏交易，象我贴出来的这个图形上讨论的这样交易。因为这是4H Macd交易策略的心脏。如果市场无所作为，按他的节奏，你就观望。你等待直到再次出现新的节奏。没趋势就不要交易，因为利润来源于有趋势的市场。但你可以看到，这一波的末尾，价格下来的时候折回到21ema，然后又回到21ema，然后跌到89均线，如果这里有个主要移动均线，象今天，例如200均线，在89均线上方，很可能到达200均线呆一会，如果有新闻或消息，市场被足够驱动，可能穿过200均线，然后又回到89均线。
that’s it for this rhythm part, but really you have to get this under belt, for that’s what this system is all about. Don’t take too many trades. Only 8-12 per month per currency pair. I would say 8 per month per currency pair. If you go more than that you start looking for trades. I hope this is going to help you all. If you finished here then you can go back and start reading the thread and then you will now something about the RHYTHM and the Hearth of This System. http://www.fx998.cn2 a1 ?0 |4 @! E0 J7 j
好，这是节奏部分，你不得不被他约束，因为这正是系统主要内容。不要做很多交易，一个货币对8－12单就足够了，我要说的是一个货币对，8单每月。如果你超过这个数，你开始寻找交易，我希望这都能帮上你，如果你完成了这些交易，你可以回头再来看看这个话题，你会更好的理解市场节奏和这个交易策略的心脏。
[ 本帖最后由 hercules18 于 2008-1-12 23:03 编辑 ]
附件 abbr_e7072a0a83ce314a3acea68a7d535f80.jpg (329.98 KB) 2008-1-12 23:03
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