- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2006-7-3
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-1 20:13
|
显示全部楼层
Cause and Effectby Joseph Russo, Elliott Wave Technology | April 1, 2008Print Rarely do circumstances prevail whereby one is compelled to cast aside a natural self-interest in promoting one’s trade, to instead share opinion and perspective on a more broad set of shared observations, beliefs, and convictions, intent upon bringing about vigorous constructive public discourse in serving a purpose much larger than oneself.
Now is such a time, and the following is respectfully our patriotic and dutiful contribution in fostering such endeavors. We yield as much time as we may consume, and reserve the balance of our time remaining.
 We get what we vote, hold to account for, and demand from our public servants/stewards
Until such time as, We The People, demand a brutally honest discourse in revealing the most essential underlying root causes of common denomination for all that continually plagues our economy, Republic, and world at large, we should not expect anything less than a hyper-steroidal-dose of the same-old redundant indiscretions of inequity, and blatant structural policy flaws that perpetually blind and propel largely hoodwinked, multi-generational populaces into the historically repetitive and dire economic malaise in which the present generation suddenly find itself today.
The sooner we expediently embrace swallowing the bitter pill of acceptance, and move toward a collectively informed, patriotic sacrifice in facing perhaps the most challenging, lengthy, and uncertain period of atonement in our nation’s history, the sooner we shall begin to reap the everlasting rewards of such noble endeavor.
Means to an End
Through the means of integrity, sacrifice, and self-determination, each of us individually possesses the inherent personal constitution and fortitude by which to attain the admirable end in cooperatively assuring a sustainable, secure, and equitably prosperous future for ourselves, our neighbors, and collective future generations both at home and abroad.
ONE ROOT-CAUSE clearly exposed upon blatantly Crossing-the-Line in the plain light of day
When a central authority will go to any length to prove to themselves, to all of the world, and those with whom they ally, that they possess, or have the means by which to acquire unlimited resources, power, and capability to control, shape, and direct all facets of wealth, commerce, and trade - both private and public – it should sound a piercing siren of alarm for citizenry of all free nations to immediately become fully engaged, and to begin demanding answers and accountability toward a rather serious and comprehensive line of inquiry as to the nature, and expansive purpose and consequence to such a dynamic evolution toward an infinite concentration of unlimited powers. 
Federal Reserve Building
What Congress and Investors Should Understand About the Bear Stearns Deal
It is our collective patriotic duty to question whether the audacity of recent actions is either legal or constitutional under this particular authority’s questionable mandate. Why is Bear Stearns trading at $6 instead of $2?
Men in the Mirror / Politics / Central Banking Cartels / and other destructive Nation Breaking Hubris
As the fate of the self-contrived financial sphere seemingly hangs in the balance of a coming plethora of lawsuits, deliberations, and hearings as to the cause, remedy, and future prevention of the historically familiar quagmire in which various institutions of dubious record and intent - have over the course of decades –succeeded once again in crippling the state of its nation – the vexing endeavor of politics alongside its intriguing mistress of fractional banking and innovative finance, is likely to become the front and center concern of financial markets, governments, regulatory agents, and populations across the globe.
Clearly failing its veiled mandate by way of engendering severely maligned and excessive concentrations of unchecked power and wealth, and bringing the entire financial system toward the questionable and very well-publicized fear-laden precipice of total collapse – it will be illuminating to observe such powers go through the motions of explanation, discovery, argument, and proposed remedy to matters for which they may or may not admit being party to, nor in possessing the scope, wisdom, or integrity necessary to provide adequate answer or lasting solution.
Unfortunately, those including the quasi government agency of the Federal Reserve, alongside the broken body politic at large to whom it finances - are themselves at the helm, and unequivocal party to the numerous liable institutions to which our nation now sadly depends upon for a cure.
Averting Financial Collapse or the Loss of Imperial Monopoly?
Whether or not allowing a major investment bank to fail would have collapsed the entire financial system, is highly questionable. Quite likely, such a failure may have proved to be nothing more than a long overdue commencement toward a massive rebalancing via the free markets long-repressed natural self-cleansing mechanism, which albeit acutely painful and of reprehensible embarrassment, may have finally led to a better, stronger future in the long run.
They’ve clearly run out of Plate-Spinners to keep the magic scheme of perceived prosperity going
Supposedly, the pressing priority now appears to revolve around keeping home values inflated for the benefit of sacrosanct bondholders, the financial system at large, and lastly - by default and convenience - for the benefit of homeowners. Such accomplishment is a pipe-dream with hyper-inflationary consequence beyond comprehension. More likely, some rendition of classic valuation appraisal formulas will soon be imposed.
Prepare for the classic time-tested formula for Re-Pricing Real Property at 100 X the Rent
How low will home values go? How might one anticipate the level of needed adjustment to local and regional re-pricing of homes both now, and for the foreseeable future? How much of a haircut are those engaged going to take? How much should those in need of purchasing/refinancing a (non speculative) primary residence expect to pay?
History clearly guides us toward a rather simple but highly accurate rule of thumb suggesting that it shall become expediently prudent to re-appraise, and re-price real property at its capitalized fair market rental value. The sooner this is done, the sooner the “housing” malaise will mitigate and correct itself.
Just One of the Many forthcoming effects likely to arise
A new version of the Home Owners Lending Corporation on deck
In past crisis of (thus far) similar magnitude, the historic and notably successful regulatory policies of the HOLC held that the most common basis of capitalization appraisal is to multiply one month's fair market rent by 100; sometimes 120, and in some cases by a figure less than 100 - in order to establish the most accurate fair-market property valuations.
The historical findings of the HOLC concluded that after an examination of several hundred appraisals of properties on which loans were made revealed very few cases—probably less than 1 percent—in which the appraiser sought to modify the result reached using the described rent capitalization formula.
Hence, if one’s house or investment property commands rent on the fair market of $2,000 per month, one would be accurate to estimate that such property will be re-appraised, and re-priced at a fair market value of $200,000.
Likewise, if one is under the perception that their real property is worth an estimated $500,000, one can quickly confirm or negate such estimate by inquiring; is this property rentable on the open market at $5,000 per month?
If after researching comparable rents one can honestly answer yes, then their estimation of a 500K worth would be substantiated.
If however, the answer is no, then by going through the exercise of determining fair market comparable rents for the type of property that one owns, one may then realistically arrive at a more accurate estimated value of one’s property by multiplying a month’s rent by a factor of 100.
The same valuation metrics may be used by those in need of purchasing property both now, and for the foreseeable future, to insure that they do not pay an unreasonable excess for real property in the early stages of a market adjusting downward from artificially inflated levels of incomprehensible magnitude.
We’ll now redirect your attention to what in our opinion, is one of the primary root-causes for all of the historically familiar, and very predictable economic malaise currently upon our doorstep.
Follow the (make believe) Money Trail - brimming with the vexing complexity and intrigue of hollow financial innovations born of the greed and necessity required to protect and veil a perpetual monopoly of fiat-currency, fractional-reserve banking, and a severely flawed credit-based system of quasi capitalism - aka in some circles as authoritarian free-enterprise.
Upon a brief introduction to the history, origin, and common purpose of central banking schemes, one can readily extrapolate similar purpose and intent throughout the historic evolution of such schemes to our present day global version.
Should one lack the required time to meticulously unpack each historical account of dynamic development of these grand schemes, we suspect a ready extrapolation will suffice.
For visual reference, we have provide the chart below, which begins in 1693, three years prior to the emergence of the Central Bank of England, and is comprised from data spliced from the British All Shares Index, London Stock Exchange, Clement Burgess Index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
And yes, we do maintain an illuminating and rather unique proprietary Grand Super Cycle Elliott Wave count for the 300-year data series.
America’s Young Republic –
Usurped by establishment of its 1st Central Bank in 1791?
Calls for a National Bank in England
In England, there was argument for some kind of bank to gather momentum after the Glorious Revolution of 1688 when William of Orange and Queen Mary jointly ascended the throne of England –
The political economist Sir William Petty had recognized from the example of the Dutch, that successful credit- based trading could benefit a nation in many ways and help to enlarge its sphere of influence:
He wrote in 1682:
"What remedy is there if we have too little money? We must erect a Bank, which well computed doth almost double the Effect of our coined Money; and we have in England Materials for a Bank which shall furnish Stock enough to drive the Trade of the whole Commercial World".
Map of English Empire in America
But it took a London-based Scots entrepreneur, William Paterson, to propose the scheme that eventually found favor: his first, proposed in 1691, had been rejected for several reasons. This was partly because, as he wrote in 1695, "Others said this project came from Holland and therefore would not hear of it, since we had too many Dutch things already".
Under his scheme, in return for a loan of £1 million, the bills issued by his company should be made legal tender. This idea proved to be more than a century ahead of its time, and consequently unacceptable to the Parliamentary Committee.
'A Fund for Perpetual Interest': The funded National Debt is Born
After several more rejections, Paterson put forward a plan for a 'Bank of England' and a 'Fund for Perpetual Interest' although this time, bills were not mentioned.
Supported by two powerful personalities - Charles Montagu, Chancellor of the Exchequer, who looked after the Parliamentary lobbying, and Michael Godfrey a leading merchant who ensured the ideas acceptance in the City - it was all but inevitable, given the Government's pressing need for funds, that the scheme should be approved by Parliament.
So Paterson's plan was accepted and the necessary Act passed.
One of the banks first transactions was to loan 1.2 million pounds at 8% interest to William of Orange to help the King pay the cost of his war with Louis XIV of France.
The public were invited to invest in the new project and it was these public subscriptions totaling £1.2 million that were to form the initial capital stock of the Bank of England, and was to be on-lent to Government in return for a Royal Charter.
Paterson said:
"The bank hath benefit of interest on all monies which it creates out of nothing."
Once unveiled, the dominant Cause and Effect as to the current State of Nations is self-evident
Shortly after America’s Declaration of Independence, calls for inquiry and debate apparently failed to be either constitutionally, or equitably resolved in America’s young Republic on three separate occasions spanning the course of its first 137-years.
Firstly, upon the adoption of the first Central Bank of the United States in 1791, then again upon the second such Bank chartered in 1816 - ultimately headed by Nicholas Biddle, which then led to the banking wars of 1832-36, and finally upon enactment of our modern-day Federal Reserve System, which was chartered for unspecified duration in 1913.
The highest honor of intrigue in its historical evolution must go to the grandfather of central banking, one William Paterson (a Scottish trader of dubious background) who was behind the first such scheme in England circa 1691.
One might also argue that second honors of such vexing intrigue could be awarded to America’s very own Alexander Hamilton, the young Republics first Secretary of the Treasury, who was somewhat of a renegade in favor of large centralized government, and also regrettably, one of the original founding fathers.
The above is but a brief introduction as to the origin, intent, and objective purpose of central banking. Its 300+ year history is replete with similar, and at times, much more egregious and deceptive motivations.
President John F. Kennedy,
The Federal Reserve
And Executive Order 11110
Future Headline Prophecy:
Perhaps we are being overly optimistic, however nothing would please us more than to bare witness in our lifetime, to the following headlines:
central bank monopolies abolished
Found responsible for grossly failing Mandates, and engendering Centuries of Inequity, War, and Empire
At some point in our collective history, it shall become another grand holiday, momentous in celebration, of a new - more perfect independence, when the world-over may embrace such headlines across all spheres of modern communication.
Honor, pride, integrity, and unbridled patriotism of sacrifice and productivity shall flow without limit from those whose affiliations, respective stewards, and governing bodies, had expediently elected to legislate a broad array of radically sound policies, at the behest of its citizenry - resonating from the demand for sweeping change, to reconstitute laws of impartial equity - brought about through a comprehensive and learned wisdom of ages, in re-adopting a more perfect adherence to the most practical philosophy of reason and governance, from which only a truly incorruptible Republic can be entrusted to provide.
Long-term sustainable prosperity, peace, innovation, free-trade, preservation, and security will at once become possible in truth, not theory, nor by the drop of bombs or innovative fiat money flows from cartel- supported finance credit schemes.
Illusory dreams of the something-for-nothing past shall be replaced with future bounties of lasting tangible virtue, and enduring abundance of true-wealth resulting from sacrifice, investment, and conviction to redefine our respective cultures, and to inspire and reward practiced principles of durable success. Then, and only then, shall it become truth in the hearts and minds of those who so choose to live and define their destiny by such systems of impartial laws and equity.
Such naturally inherent freedoms of liberty, derived from a reconstitution of incorruptible architecture, shall provide the most practical means by which to settle all matters and affairs of humankind both at home and abroad. The result of which shall allow individuals and nations to evolve and flourish of free will, liberty, and justice for all, under a set of inalienable universal laws of reason, sensibility, prudence, and everlasting utility.
J.W Smith’s Economic Democracy> / Global Trade / Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations
Collectively, we must reconsider the current nature, intent, ultimate consequence, and present outcomes of that which has been institutionally engrained as the ever-essential imposition of our so-called modern-day “global economy.”
Such trade and global commerce has been ongoing for centuries, and has most often resulted in perpetual wars, empire, and the incessant pursuit of highly concentrated elite power and untold wealth for the privileged few whom occupy seats at various docks of receivership either by force, treaty, entanglement, or alliance.
To whom does this particular modern-day brand of global economy and commerce truly benefit, and at what cost? What are the long standing (do-no-harm/greater good) merits and distinct advantages or disadvantages of such trade agreements? Who are the governing (non-sovereign) authorities by which such agreements are crafted, signed, mediated, and enforced? What factions and concentrated interests are further empowered by such treaties and alliances, and which broad factions are most weakened?
Should not such treaties be made to strengthen nations rather than stifle them with inordinately high levels of unsustainable dependency on those with whom they treat?
Should not nations first rise to, and then wholly maintain their optimal sovereign self-sustaining potential prior to casting aside all such autonomous achievements in lieu of allowing behemoth non-sovereign multi-national entities and banking cartels to monopolize, and thus dictate, shape, and direct the fate of all peoples and nations?
The following, is a short list of some prevailing concepts for evaluation in reshaping monetary systems as described principally by proponents of what has been categorized as “Economic Democracy.”
Though we do not agree with them all, if nothing else, such philosophic exercise in pragmatically examining more fundamentally sound economic/political/foreign-policy alternatives, may lay the initial groundwork for vigorous debate in shaping more perfect unions and independence for all nations at some point in our collective future.
Regional Trading Currencies
According to Thomas H. Greco, Jr., author of New Money for Healthy Communities,
"The pinnacle of power in today's world is the power to issue money. If that power can be democratized and focused in a direction which gives social and ecological concerns top priority, then there may yet be hope for saving the world".
In this regard, many proponents of Economic Democracy recommend the regionalization of currencies. Some experts suggest that, "under the Bretton Woods system, the Federal Reserve acted as the world's central bank. This gave America enormous leverage over economic policies of its principal trading partners".
Other analysts add that developing nations are susceptible to exploitation mainly because they have no independent monetary system, using the U.S. dollar instead. This feeds the fractional reserve banking system, operated by the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Japan (imperial-centers-of-capital).
Developing nations pay heavily for this service through market interest rates and because banking profits and property ownership immigrate to financial centers elsewhere.
According to J.W. Smith, "Currency is only the representation of wealth produced by combining land (resources), labor, and industrial capital". He claims that no country is free when another country has such leverage over its entire economy. But by combining their resources, Smith says developing nations have all three of these foundations of wealth:
By peripheral nations using the currency of an imperial center as its trading currency, the imperial center can actually print money to own industry within those periphery countries.
In contrast, by forming regional trading blocs and printing their own trading currency, the developing world has all four requirements for production; resources, labor, industrial capital, and finance capital. The wealth produced provides the value to back the created and circulating money.
Smith further explains that developed countries need resources from the developing world as much as developing countries need finance capital and technology from the developed world. Aside from superior military power of the imperial centers, the undeveloped world actually has superior bargaining leverage.
With their own trading currencies, developing countries can barter their resources to the developed world in trade for the latest industrial technologies. Barter avoids "hard money monopolization" and the unequal trades between weak and strong nations that result.
Smith suggests that barter was how Germany resolved many financial difficulties "put in place to strangle her", and that "World Wars I and II settled that trade dispute".
He claims that their intentions of exclusive entitlement are clearly exposed when the imperial centers must resort to military force to prevent such barters and maintain monopoly control of others' resources.
In sum, let there be no mistaking;
The modern-day collaborative cartel of Global Central Bankers are collectively far more powerful than the individual Governments whom they are assigned to represent and respectively finance - and as such - they currently possess the pinnacle of infinite powers sufficient to quietly RULE THE WORLD in no uncertain terms
We get what we vote, hold to account for, and demand from our public servants/stewards
Understandably, a growing number of Americans are utterly perplexed as to why one of America’s finest Senior Republican candidates for president - Congressman Ron Paul– has yet to be vindicated, and comprehensively recognized by mainstream media forcing widespread debate and exhaustive public discourse, for his strident, visionary, and unequivocally accurate DAY-ONE judgments, assessments, and foreknowledge of cause, effect, and practical remedy to the innumerable matters of crisis and urgency, which currently threaten the present and future State of our Union.
[url=http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=120&winname=addthis&pub=financialsense&s=&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.financialsense.com%2Ffsu%2Feditorials%2Frusso%2F2008%2F0401.html&title=%22Cause%20and%20Effect%22%20by%20Joseph%20Russo%2C%20FSU%20Editorial%2004%2F01%2F2008&logo=&logobg=&logocolor=&ate=AT-financialsense/-/-/3b2551cccea4f1/1/49b44c024eb8e0c7&adt=undefined&content=&CXNID=2000001.5215456080540439074NXC] [/url] Copyright © 2008 Joseph Russo
Editorial Archive
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-2 06:03 编辑 ] |
|
|
[复制链接]
The chart above is not an archived, working analysis chart, but rather a simple graphic summary created to reflect the net effect of our ongoing analysis. Note how four of the five ultimately aborted counter-trend buy-probes were stopped with pursuant “sell-triggers,”
THE BROAD MARKET UPDATE (A WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE)
