一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Even more compelling than IWM is the actual index, the $RUT, which has nicely touched a very important Fibonacci level. This was the same level that got violated in late May and early June (much to my chagrin). Make no mistake, we are on the bulls' side of this level. We need to push beneath it to add more evidence to the bear case. This isn't a slam dunk; the bulls could take the baton away.

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The S&P 500 performed well today for the bears too. One the bearish side, the trendline since July 15th is absolutely broken. On the bullish side, we are resting directly on the important level at 1270. A close beneath the lows of today and August 8th (that is, 1261) is a requirement. End of story.

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You can see this more plainly with a closer view.

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I have a hybrid portfolio at this point, because I have acquired a substantial quantity of calls related to energy and gold. I am counting on a rise in EUR/USD, gold, and oil.

hefeiddd

I have a hybrid portfolio at this point, because I have acquired a substantial quantity of calls related to energy and gold. I am counting on a rise in EUR/USD, gold, and oil.

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Just as Tuesday morning was chock full of economic indicators, Wednesday is wholly devoid of it. There's no doubt it will be an interesting day, but even if the bulls push things higher, it will not undo the damage done in the week so far.

Posted: 04:42 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

八月 18, 2008 - 02:10 下午Tastes Like ChickenIt was a terrific day. But I've said that before, and what often happens is that the giant bag of money that goes into my account one day exits the next. We need a trend; a good, steady trend that lasts more than, oh, say, one day. So I'm not shopping for Lear jets just yet.
I pointed out in this morning's post that there are two schools of thought as to what's next (school 1: July 15 was the low; school 2: we're about to enter a gigantic wave 3 that plunges us into much lower levels). Today's action helps the second postulate to some degree. And Tuesday morning's important economic reports will provide some more direction. But hear this: until we break below 1261 on the S&P 500, we're just flap-jawwing.
I was interested to see FXP had a strong up day. I haven't had a position in China for a while, but looking at $CZH, it looks like the post-Olympic bear market might be shaping up. Do you remember what I was writing back when the Shanghai index was above 6,000? I was talking about how the new, naive middle class was going to get their heads handed to them. Well, that's what happened. But I think there could be lots more heads to come.

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The Dow's 180 point drop today helped the bear case. We need to push below the dark red line you see below, though. The good news is that the ascending wedge was busted. The 7/15 uptrend is no longer intact.

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I still think the Euro is going to bounce pretty strongly, but I'm not inclined to take a position. I don't trade FOREX anymore, but this graph merits watching, since it will have a direct impact on oil, gold, and (to a lesser degree) equities.

hefeiddd

I still think the Euro is going to bounce pretty strongly, but I'm not inclined to take a position. I don't trade FOREX anymore, but this graph merits watching, since it will have a direct impact on oil, gold, and (to a lesser degree) equities.

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I say again: S&P below 1261. Required.

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I've gone a bit diamond-happy lately. I love my ANR puts, takeover efforts be damned.

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The DV diamond I pointed out just a few days ago has already paid off handsomely.

hefeiddd

The DV diamond I pointed out just a few days ago has already paid off handsomely.

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And another similar one that perhaps I didn't mention yet is AMT.

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You can just picture all the malodorous brokers pushing LVS when it was "on sale" at $30, compelling the bulls to double its price. The downtrend now resumes.

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Lastly, on IWM, I sold about 40% of my puts when we hit the retracement level today. The real key is to bust beneath that dotted red line you see at about the 71.70 level. All the same, my index puts did really well today, moving about 35% higher.

hefeiddd

Lastly, on IWM, I sold about 40% of my puts when we hit the retracement level today. The real key is to bust beneath that dotted red line you see at about the 71.70 level. All the same, my index puts did really well today, moving about 35% higher.

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I'll do a quick post in the morning after the big economic releases. I hope to God I don't have to hand this giant sack of money back. I'm sick of doing so. I'd rather keep it, thanks very much.

Posted: 02:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

八月 15, 2008 - 11:57 上午Russell RetracementI was perturbed today when I saw the Russell push above its June 2 high...........

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However, the breakout quickly failed, and as we all know, a failed bullish breakout is a good sign. Out of curiousity, I laid down a Fibonacci retracement spanning October 11, 2007 to March 10, 2008. Lo and behold, today's high nailed the 61.8% line virtually to the penny!

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So I am still in position on my IWM puts, and I've got a nice, clean stop above the retracement.



Posted: 11:57 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

八月 08, 2008 - 09:39 下午The RiskGreetings from the San Francisco Marriott, where the Money Show is taking place. I'm way in the back of the room, waiting to go on stage for a couple of hours to throw charts at Tom Sosnoff. On the way down, a couple of gents recognized me and wanted to say they read my blog. One of them was very friendly and cordial. The other mentioned how he learned from "the mistakes people who write blogs make". Glad to help! :-|
Anyway, today was obviously a really rotten end to an otherwise really cool week. As my prior post stated, it's getting really frustrating dealing with a market that lurches - alternately - up and down. On the whole, it goes nowhere. This is like the third or fourth week that I basically haven't budged in terms of portfolio value, in spite of huge swings up and down. That's a hell of a lot of work to be standing still.
A person actively trading can either (a) take profits daily or (b) play for a trend and work toward much, much bigger profits. I've been focusing on (b), and it's been a dud. Doing (a) is fraught with risk and missed opportunities, but lately, it's been the way to go. I don't get my jollies out of spinning my financial wheels. Although I guess treading water is better than losing money.
Looking closely at $XBD, we need to watch that 165 level closely. Breaking the descending trendline would be bad news, bears.

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The DIA was very disturbing; it had huge volume, the biggest upmove in weeks (if not months), and a clean pierce above the resistance line. Not good. Super-firm resistance isn't in place until 122.

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The IWM is also very disturbing. We're above the Fibonacci and also at risk for cutting above that descending trendline. Next week puts us very "at risk".

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I've drawn a horizontal line on the NASDAQ to suggest one possible demarcation, but let's face it, there's not much holding the market back from pushing above this level. A rally to S&P 1320 might be a cinch for the bulls at this point. It's only 20 points away.

hefeiddd

I've drawn a horizontal line on the NASDAQ to suggest one possible demarcation, but let's face it, there's not much holding the market back from pushing above this level. A rally to S&P 1320 might be a cinch for the bulls at this point. It's only 20 points away.

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Oil has been amazing week the past 30 days. I think the bull's back is broken on this, but I also think we're due for a meaningful bounce higher next week before the downtrend resumes.

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At this point, I'm sitting on a train with a bunch of rowdy baseball fans (it's a long story...........but I was speaking in San Francisco with Tom Sosnoff), so I'm going to end it here. I'm probably going to have a chunk of time in Las Vegas to put together something lengthier, but if not, please understand! I've got a big three-day show I'm doing with thinkorswim, and I'm speaking on four separate occasions, so I'll be pretty tied up. Today was rough, but try to have a good weekend! And to those of you going to Vegas, I'll see you there soon......

Posted: 09:39 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

八月 08, 2008 - 10:48 上午Un-RUT-ing BelieveableWhere did THAT come from?
The day started off with everything soft, and out of nowhere, the market found its strength and exploded higher. The levels of resistance have been breached, and the only bright spot for me is the weakness in energy. Not a good day so far at all!

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 10:48 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

七月 17, 2008 - 04:36 下午Earnings GaloreWell, this is the day we've all been waiting for - - and what terrific results were offered after hours! There are an avalanche of earnings out there - - IBM, Merrill Lynch, Microsoft - - the list is very long, and the vast majority of stocks I follow were either (a) getting hit; or (b) getting destroyed. I was watching Google most carefully after the close, which had closed around 533. I was watching the bid/ask like a hawk. For a moment I saw a bid of 550, but maybe some joker thought it was funny, because a moment later the bids below $500 starting falling in. As of this writing, the bid/ask for GOOG is around $490, which is indicated below with the purple tinted area. It will be interesting to see if we "fill the gap" (marked in green tint) any time soon, given this smack-down.

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So yesterday the Dow was up about 270, and today it was up over 200 again. Fantastic! I love it! It has provided me so many wonderful shorting opportunities. In fact, at this point, I have 100 positions. There are simply so many fantastic stocks out there. My energy shorts have been doing sensationally well, and I loaded up on some issues today that had been hoisted higher by the huge two-day rally in the financials.

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I took some more energy profits off the table today, since I think some of the selling has finished for a little while. But don't get me wrong - - I still have a huge quantity of bearish energy positions. I just got out of simple stuff, like OIH. Here is the Dow Jones index on which DUG is based:

hefeiddd

took some more energy profits off the table today, since I think some of the selling has finished for a little while. But don't get me wrong - - I still have a huge quantity of bearish energy positions. I just got out of simple stuff, like OIH. Here is the Dow Jones index on which DUG is based:

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Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below.

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I have amassed two very large positions on the $RUT (puts) based on the robust retracement to the retracement line you see below. This is the IWM (obviously).

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I was also pleased to see the NASDAQ push its way back to almost precisely the underbelly of the fan line.

hefeiddd

I was also pleased to see the NASDAQ push its way back to almost precisely the underbelly of the fan line.

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I mentioned closing my OIH puts at excellent profits. You can plainly see why here.

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I mentioned 1270 being an important level of resistance for the S&P today. It got close enough to this line today for my satisfaction.

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As for DUG, set aside your knowledge that this is based on energy. Just pretend the chart below is a regular company stock. Don't you think this looks terribly bullish? Look at the surge in volume and the wonderful trendline breakout. Isn't this a gorgeous graph? That's why I own a ton of this (remember, I put 100% of my IRA into this thing when it was about $29, and the gains have been handsome in the short amount of time since then).

hefeiddd

As for DUG, set aside your knowledge that this is based on energy. Just pretend the chart below is a regular company stock. Don't you think this looks terribly bullish? Look at the surge in volume and the wonderful trendline breakout. Isn't this a gorgeous graph? That's why I own a ton of this (remember, I put 100% of my IRA into this thing when it was about $29, and the gains have been handsome in the short amount of time since then).

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Fashion provider to the younger set ANF has a sensational topping pattern. I have taken advantage of the retracement by buying puts.

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XEC has great profits, but I'm hanging on for more.

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CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.

hefeiddd

CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.

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I bought puts on BTU yesterday based on its failed bullish breakout. This is a favorite technique of mine.

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POT was finally smoked today, as was MOS. I think there is still plenty of downside here.

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I re-entered my SOHU short (which I had closed a couple of days ago) since the retracement finished. The neckline isn't as clean as I'd like, but I'm willing to take a chance.

hefeiddd

I re-entered my SOHU short (which I had closed a couple of days ago) since the retracement finished. The neckline isn't as clean as I'd like, but I'm willing to take a chance.

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I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me - - VERY hard - - is to know the right time to exit plays like this.

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It was mentioned in the comments how instructive Friday's action will be, and I agree. If we somehow end with a positive market on the day, that will be a very, very bullish sign, because these earnings are very plainly disappointing. On the other hand, if the market gets smacked down hard, maybe we're in a new era of having to face the reality of weak earnings, which will thus push down valuations farther. We'll know soon! Good luck, stay humble, and stay nimble.

Posted: 04:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

七月 13, 2008 - 08:21 上午Doing What's RightThe market should go up this week.
That's what the charts say. That's what the explosively higher volume on certain ETFs say. That's what most market observers, bull and bear alike, say. Even some of the most wild-eyed armageddon-prepped bears that I read concede that it's time for a bounce.
That's precisely what worries me. Any time most people agree on what should happen next, just the opposite occurs. There's nothing that gives the market more jollies than proving as many people wrong as possible.
All the same, it would be pretty easy to conjure up some things lining up to create a substantial, multi-week push higher, such as:

• FNM and FRE calm down (or get wiped out, IMB-style, by a government receivorship, thus getting them out of the way as a topic altogether)
• The earnings which begin tumbling in this week are judged as Not So Bad (GE-style)
• The sectors that have suffered the worst drubbings (like investment banks) make a particularly large bounce-back, generating "things are cheap!" feelings in other sectors

One other possibility (but certainly not the only other one) would be for a single, one-day shakeout that pushes the $VIX way up into the mid- or high-30s, thus dispensing with the excuse that everyone keeps trotting out for this not being a bottom - - - fear hasn't been high enough.
I've had surprisingly little time this weekend to look at charts, so I decided (here, at 3:30 a.m. on Sunday!) it would be better to put together a short post rather than just having nothing out there. So here goes.
The "one missing piece", as I said, that everyone keeps seeking is a really high $VIX. We are at nearly double the levels seen in mid-May, but people want (to borrow a title from an early 1990s drama) Thirty-Something on the VIX. Paradoxically, people want to see rampant nervousness so that they can rest easy.

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I mentioned recently that I think the Dow is going to make a pretty major bounce at somewhere near the 10,700 area. We are awfully close. Friday put us into the 10,xxx camp, and the huge intraday rally (taking the Dow from -230 to positive territory in less than an hour) indicates to me the pent-up bullishness lurking under the sheets.

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I don't show volume in many of my charts, but this was knocked me over for its statistical weirdness. I noticed that for every day last week, particularly the final four days, the volume on the IWM was almost identical. Not just sort of close. But borderline exact. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all had volume of 131 million and change. It's just weird. It's like walking into a class of students and finding out that half of the boys are named Fred. I don't draw any conclusions from this except for the fact that there is a lot of high-volume churn going on in the market as a base attempts to get hammered out.

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Oh, and then there's the big post-close news of the week: the shuttering of Indymac Bancorp. Just look at this chart - - from the mid 40s to $0. Obviously the elimination of a stock whose market cap was only about $25 million is inconsequential in the numeric scheme of things, but the psychological effects of the third largest bank closing in the U.S. will be seen on Monday.

hefeiddd

If the markets do bounce, I think the Russell will bounce the strongest. That's where I intend to stake out my trades, should strength take place.

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Virtually all my short positions are in energy-land, and in fact I did buy five different call positions on Friday. There are still a handful of interesting charts on the short side, even with the market at these levels. PG is one of them.

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I mentioned the strong ETF volume. Look at UWM, and how strong the volume was at the mid-January and mid-March lows. We can see a similar surge in volume here.

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Even moreso, look at SSO, whose volume was a new record!

hefeiddd

Even moreso, look at SSO, whose volume was a new record!

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I guess I'm most bearish on energy, which is why I've got a ton of DUG. I am delighted at the price behavior above its former resistance trendline.

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And so I'm going to leave it at that. The upcoming week is going to be a barnburner. We've got a slew of major economic reports. Testimony in front of Congress by Bernanke. Earnings from a ton of companies, including a little outfit named Google. And all this with a backdrop of a market battered to pieces over the past 2 months and FRE/FNM on top of it. Hold on to your hats!

Posted: 08:21 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

七月 10, 2008 - 12:03 上午Freude Schoener GoetterfunkenI have two persistent problems in my trading. One is my innate bearish nature. I'm not sure I'll ever be able to fix that. The second is an inability to accept just how far a market can travel. Strangely, this isn't confined to underestimating how high a given stock might go; it also goes the other direction. Even though I've been having a great time in this bear market, I frequently think that there is simply no way a particular stock can go any longer, and lo and behold, it keeps plunging. So, uber-bear that I might be, I don't give the potential for a security to get wiped out enough credit.
Over the past seven trading sessions, the markets have been struggling to make a bottom. The news media have been, on a daily basis, saying that This Is It, but each day It doesn't happen. We just keep grinding away in a trading range. Any meaningful pop lasts only a few hours, or a day at most.
This morning (and I'm referring to Wednesday morning, even though I'm typing this nearly at midnight), I entered the market with a large put position on the Russell 2000, and I was terribly nervous about it. The market was a little bit weak, and I sold out of the position (which had a net positive change for the day, but a net loss for the position), and I felt relieved. I was astonished to see the market continue to be weak, in spite of a mountain of good reasons for at least a short-term bounce, so I re-entered the put position, which was extremely profitable by day's end. As you can see in the DIA chart below, Wednesday created a substantial bearish engulfing pattern, but given the "grind it out" state of the past seven sessions, I wouldn't give it as much creedence as I would had it occured at a market's peak.

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Looking at the $INDU's retracements, it seems that the next target (assuming yet more weakness) would be about 10,700. That seems like a really low number, but it's only about 400 points away. We've already fallen 3,000 points since last October's peak.

hefeiddd

Looking at the $INDU's retracements, it seems that the next target (assuming yet more weakness) would be about 10,700. That seems like a really low number, but it's only about 400 points away. We've already fallen 3,000 points since last October's peak.

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A lot of us here were, until recently, very frustrated with our energy shorts. Not any longer. My agriculture and energy shorts are doing dynamite, and even if the general equity market does turn higher, I'm holding on to those positions. Look at the marvelous breakout of DUG, with beautifully behavior on the trendline.

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People keep talking about a lack of volatility. They're talking about the $VIX, which certainly isn't at panic levels. But for the more basic definition of volatility, we've had it in spades. Just look at the movement of the Russell 2000 over the past six weeks.

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The one remaining bull market is the $CRX, and I am counting on this one to fail. This will be the Last Man Standing.

hefeiddd

The one remaining bull market is the $CRX, and I am counting on this one to fail. This will be the Last Man Standing.

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The S&P is below its retracement, but, just as it did in late May and early June, it may simply be screwing around outside the bounds of its normal trading zone without defining a new range. I've tinted the areas to show you what I mean.

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The SPY, on the other hand, is still neatly within the retracements.

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Even though BX has already fallen a lot, I'm thinking of adding this short position to my portfolio. Man, oh man. I won't even start talking about these clowns.

hefeiddd

Even though BX has already fallen a lot, I'm thinking of adding this short position to my portfolio. Man, oh man. I won't even start talking about these clowns.

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Another cool chart I tripped across tonight is PLCE.

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I sold my CME puts a week ago for terrific profits, but that was hasty. This thing just keeps fallen, having lost over half its value over the course of 2008. Breathtaking!

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I mentioned all the potential profits I think are stored in my energy shorts. This is the kind of chart I am talking about.

hefeiddd

I mentioned all the potential profits I think are stored in my energy shorts. This is the kind of chart I am talking about.

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.........and this one......

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CSX has shaped up very nicely here.

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Oh, and then there's my favorite, ICE. I just love this position. Love it to pieces.