一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

一月 03, 2009 - 06:09 上午CautionHaving gone through all the index charts, it's evident to me that we're at the first test of the Inauguration Rally - - as you will see in the charts below, prices are butting up against Fibonaccis, trendlines, or both.

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Also, the ES (e-mini S&P contract) looks more than a little extended. The breakout from this triangle was very late, and it wouldn't be hard to see this fizzle back to 900; continued strength on Monday and a break above the lines in the aforementioned charts would add confidence to this rally making its way to 1,000.

hefeiddd

Also, the ES (e-mini S&P contract) looks more than a little extended. The breakout from this triangle was very late, and it wouldn't be hard to see this fizzle back to 900; continued strength on Monday and a break above the lines in the aforementioned charts would add confidence to this rally making its way to 1,000.

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My energy call last week was quite good, although (shame on me) I sold my DIG early on Friday for no worthwhile reason. Setting that aside, it seems the prices (having moved from about $66 to $80 very quickly) are due for a softening.

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Added to which, the VIX is back down to "pre-breakout" levels. Although 39.19 was sky-high in 2007, for Q4 2008 it was never that low.

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I continue to hold gold shorts, as well as DZZ (double-bearish gold ETF), and these $XAU and $HUI charts, I think, help bolster my rationale.

hefeiddd

I continue to hold gold shorts, as well as DZZ (double-bearish gold ETF), and these $XAU and $HUI charts, I think, help bolster my rationale.

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So I'm regarding the rally at this point with a dose of skepticism. Monday is when everyone is basically "back to work" after two weeks of holiday, and we'll finally see some real volume. If prices are squishy, it may be time to go to the short side again.

Posted: 06:09 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十一月 10, 2008 - 01:59 下午A Death Worse than FateWell, China (which at least has the decency to be openly Communist, as opposed to our nation, which pretends otherwise) threw $585 billion at its economy, and the AMEX China Index exploded with an amazing 2.36% gain. Whoo hoo! I can tell you one thing. I am through with FXP. It sucks. I am sticking with FXI for either bullish or bearish positions (I own puts as of earlier today). Anyway, does this chart look bullish to you? No, I didn't think so.

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My well-worn hands will be wrung less about the IHS (no, that's not a religious reference; I'm speaking of the inverted head & shoulders) because of the utterly lame-o job the bulls did with it today. The tinted area below represents a formidable amount of crud (there's that word again), and although obviously someday it will be breached, it is currently the bear's best friend. And, as I've said, even a rise above it would represent nothing more than another shorting opportunity.

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The potential for ES and NQ to break out is still there, but the IHS has become really, really sloppy and ugly (by the time you reach this, it might even be moot).

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One of the areas that was sorta-kinda shaping up to be maybe a bit bullish was the SOX. That's going out the window too.

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One of my earliest posts today was to buy DUG. That was, I think, my best percentage gainer for the day. The declining volume and very clean stop-loss level made this a compelling trade.

hefeiddd

十一月 10, 2008 - 01:59 下午A Death Worse than FateWell, China (which at least has the decency to be openly Communist, as opposed to our nation, which pretends otherwise) threw. It sucks. I am sticking with FXI for either bullish or bearish positions (I own puts as of earlier today). Anyway, does this chart look bullish to you? No, I didn't think so.

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My well-worn hands will be wrung less about the IHS (no, that's not a religious reference; I'm speaking of the inverted head & shoulders) because of the utterly lame-o job the bulls did with it today. The tinted area below represents a formidable amount of crud (there's that word again), and although obviously someday it will be breached, it is currently the bear's best friend. And, as I've said, even a rise above it would represent nothing more than another shorting opportunity.

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The potential for ES and NQ to break out is still there, but the IHS has become really, really sloppy and ugly (by the time you reach this, it might even be moot).

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One of the areas that was sorta-kinda shaping up to be maybe a bit bullish was the SOX. That's going out the window too.

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One of my earliest posts today was to buy DUG. That was, I think, my best percentage gainer for the day. The declining volume and very clean stop-loss level made this a compelling trade.

hefeiddd

One of my earliest posts today was to buy DUG. That was, I think, my best percentage gainer for the day. The declining volume and very clean stop-loss level made this a compelling trade.

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Over the weekend, someone was curious why I liked SDP so much. I think the $UTIL is just a super trade with a lot of life left in it. I think it has only realized about 35-40% of its potential drop so far.

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The ETFs have gone from a harami pattern (Thurs/Fri) to a bearish engulfing. Nice. Let's see what tomorrow holds. If we get a hearty up day, it'll just be more confusion all around, which I think we're all tired of seeing.

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I held on to my largish position in EEM. If the market does rally, I don't want to get stuck holding nothing but puts and shorts. My stop on this is pretty obvious, and a breakout would be powerful. This held up quite well today, considering.

hefeiddd

I held on to my largish position in EEM. If the market does rally, I don't want to get stuck holding nothing but puts and shorts. My stop on this is pretty obvious, and a breakout would be powerful. This held up quite well today, considering.

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That's it for me today. Hang in there, everyone!

Posted: 01:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

十一月 08, 2008 - 10:47 上午Pushmi-PullyuThis is such a tough market to read.
On one hand, I am short (or own puts on....) a wide variety of stocks whose patterns are just gorgeous. They have all the markings of equities that are headed much lower.
On the other hand, all the major indexes I am looking out seem to be positioning themselves for an explosive countertrend rally.
So what concerns me is holding on to all these short positions as their patterns get destroyed by a general upsurge in the market. What concerns me just as much is to prematurely close out a bunch of positions out of fear of a big surge that never materializes. As you can read, I'm terribly conflicted about the entire thing.
One might suggest hedging the entire affair by going long index positions, and that's probably where I'm heading. Of course, I've seen what happens with properly hedged portfolios - - they just sit there, even in the midst of a big market move, which begs the question: what's the point of trading in the first place? I suppose non-movement of a portfolio is better than having it get crushed.
What I keep obsessing over is the inverted H&S forming in just about all the big ETFs. Here's one example:

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The power of a breakout from such a pattern could be enormous; in this instance, pushing the IWM right back up to the neckline of the tinted rectangle (at which time you would see me writhing on the floor, trying to control himself from buying the entire world's supply of index puts).

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Looking at the ES, you can see similar basing action; take special note of the dotted red line. This is the level above which prices pushed higher late in October. Notice how this week's plunge did not penetrate that line. I believe that is significant. At the same time, take note of all the overhead supply from 936 up to 1,010. That's a lot of crud to push through.

hefeiddd

The VIX is still pretty high, but if the market strengthens, this is heading much lower. If the market is terrifically strong,I think we'd see a VIX back in the high 20s.

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As a bear, I at least take comfort in the knowledge that any rally is going to be countertrend. I think the likelihood of any rally that begins now representing a new bull market is approximately zero. So, for instance, a rise in the DIA wouldn't get it past the very low 100s.

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There are some intriguing basing events going on. Intuitively, one would think the future of financial stocks in the U.S. is pretty grim, but from the chart perspective, there's some enticing action going on here.

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As conflicted as I am, I do feel somewhat confident that the Euro is about to push higher (and, with it, most commodities). We're at a decent level of support here for a bounce higher.

hefeiddd

As conflicted as I am, I do feel somewhat confident that the Euro is about to push higher (and, with it, most commodities). We're at a decent level of support here for a bounce higher.

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Having said that, crude could potentially slip a few more dollars - - but we're talking about a market that has already gone from $150 to $61. The bottom of this channel is around $54, which is quite close. So the downside at the moment doesn't seem too great.

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Still on the topic of commodities, I would also refer you to the current wheat contract - - that horizontal line of support seems very strong to me, so I'm probably buying calls on the DBA when the week begins.

hefeiddd

As for going long indexes, I guess the best strategy for me will be to buy ultra-long positions in items like those shown below while at the same time holding on to my equity shorts, keeping the stops at sensible levels. This way, even a strong rally will not damage me too badly.

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I wish I could give you more clear direction, but I can't. I promise you, though, if we do rally big-time, and we reach the levels I'm talking about, you won't see any hedging on my part. I'll be my old wild-eyed ursine self. At this moment, though, it pays to be opened minded to the prospect of a rally, no matter how paradoxical that might seem in this disastrous economy of ours.

Posted: 10:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

十月 30, 2008 - 10:45 上午ETF PutsToday has been a very good day for buying puts on liquid ETFs. Favorites now include DIA, QQQQ, and IWM.

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I have trimmed a few items from my many long positions, but by and large I'm going to let the stop prices do their work.


Posted: 10:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 28, 2008 - 09:40 上午Russell Reaches Measured TargetThe classic measured target formula for a head and shoulders pattern is to subtract the peak from the neckline, add that value to the neckline, and voila, you have your target. In the case of the Russell (as viewed here through the IWM), the target was $44, and that has been reached (I've drawn tinted areas for easy viewing).

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As I've pointed out before, the most incredible thing is that only five weeks ago the IWM was at its highest value ever in human history.


Posted: 09:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

十月 27, 2008 - 02:56 下午Despair JonesLooking back to the 19th, it's incredible what has happened, and how fast it has happened. Look at the tinted circle on the left and then the one (much lower) on the right. In the course of just five weeks, this index has lost nearly 50% of its value. Of course, the put options have gone up thousands of percent. But let's not go there.

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In spite of a pretty sucky day (up hugely earlier, down hard later), my disposition toward the market is pretty much the same - - long equities, long energy, long gold, and short the dollar. Things are even more "stretched" to the downside than when I wrote about it this weekend.

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hefeiddd

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I haven't touched anything in Asia, either long or short - - as I mentioned last week, there's really nothing but air at this point.

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As for OIH - - again, this is my "keystone" position, and if/when it does bounce, it's going to fly higher. But we're at a pretty critical juncture. Another weak day tomorrow could completely dash my hopes for a good trade here.

hefeiddd

As for OIH - - again, this is my "keystone" position, and if/when it does bounce, it's going to fly higher. But we're at a pretty critical juncture. Another weak day tomorrow could completely dash my hopes for a good trade here.

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I rarely mention the $SOX, but this is another index which is positioned for a possibly strong bounce. Indeed, it actually went up today a little, which in this market is absolutely extraordinary.

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My dollar short isn't doing well, but I'm hanging on. This rally is going to break Real Soon Now (tm).

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We could all use a little humor. So let's have at it.......

hefeiddd

十月 03, 2008 - 11:20 上午For Crying Out Loud..........I guess the powers that be couldn't let us have a normal close today. The bill is finally out of the way (Thank. You. Jesus.) and the markets are just losin' it. If the IWM breaks yesterday's lows, all hell is going to break lose. Just sayin'.

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Posted: 11:20 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

九月 18, 2008 - 12:27 下午If You Dare - - - IWM Puts

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Posted: 12:27 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

九月 16, 2008 - 04:32 下午A Chartist First; A Bear, SecondWhat's it going to be like when the markets move up or down just a little each day? What are we going to do when the biggest financial event in a quarter is a company bumping up its dividend a little? What will it feel like when a 100 point move on the Dow is pretty big news? We have gone through the looking glass, folks, and entered a totally new world. Someday it will get back to normal.
The reason for the title of tonight's post is that some people were actually ticked off (or "fading" me) since I had "turned bull." (To be clear, I was going long calls on specific sectors). I received a few emails from people, as if I had turned my back on "the cause." I am not here as a representative of the Financial Al Qaida; I don't pray for the destruction of the United States and its assets. I simply want to objectively take advantage of the insights I gain from charts. I may seem like a raving bear sometimes based on the juxtaposition between (a) what I see and (b) what the talking heads are saying; but reality and the charts have gotten a lot closer together lately, so I'm a pretty mellow fellow.
Suffice it to say that it is my life's goal to shake my permabear tendencies and be as dispassionate as possible. My "bullish calls" today are a symptom of my attempt at personal transformation.

The volume on AIG - - just one stock - - was nearly 1.2 billion shares today. It had a multi-hundred percent intraday range. And tonight, after hours, it is getting slammed yet again. I imagine this will be the big story on Wednesday, one way or another.

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Now, a lot of folks have been needling me about a "pledge" to do just one post a day; you misunderstand - - I meant the final three days of this week. I'm going to be very tied up with "normal" work. What I wouldn't give to have three quiet days on the market! But that's not going to happen. What I'll probably do is just write a one-sentence post so that people don't lose their minds posting comments; in other words, I don't want people to have to load 15 charts every time they post a comment; and, at the end of the day, I'll do a regular post (OK, I guess that's two per day).

hefeiddd

Looking back, I think I'd give myself a solid "B+" for my performance today. I dumped a huge number of puts early in the day, most of them at very good prices (although I painfully noticed that CEG, on which I owned puts a few days ago, was plunging like crazy!) I was kind of ham-handed with a few positions, notably RUT and OIH. But on the whole it was a good, profitable day, and I can't fault myself too much given the insanity of (a) the general craziness we're going through (b) Fed day, which is always nuts. The $VIX, not surprisingly, poked into "maybe this is the bottom for now" territory, as you can see below. This is only the 4th such instance pushing above 33 in at least the past five years.

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As for what's next, it's tough to say; as of now (just a few hours after the Tuesday close), the GLOBEX is down mildly hard. As you can see from the DIA below, we bottomed nicely at mid-July levels and covered the entire Fibonacci range today, closing near the highs on huge volume.

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The SPY, also sporting gigantic volume, opened down very hard and created a sizable bullish engulfing pattern (although let's remember last week's similar pattern didn't mean squat).

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And then there's the IWM. It's pretty easy to see in all three of these ETFs how, even if they open stronger tomorrow, they might bump their heads pretty hard at the respecting overhanging Fib levels.

hefeiddd

And then there's the IWM. It's pretty easy to see in all three of these ETFs how, even if they open stronger tomorrow, they might bump their heads pretty hard at the respecting overhanging Fib levels.

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I should note for the record that I have no index options at all right now. I did buy some NDX calls, and I closed those for a few thousand bucks profit (I couldn't stomach the idea of a big call position overnight). I did go long a wide variety of issues, almost all energy- or gold-based, as I described in the prior post.
Looking at the S&P 500 daily chart, it's pretty easy to make a case for today's low being the intermediate low for a while. Just look at January (and, later, March) of this year; it hit that Fib level and spent months climbing higher. I think the culture, if you will, of the market has changed enough to shorten the countertrend. But I have trouble picturing the S&P just slipping right past 1170 and heading down to the next level of 1075. If we did "crash", however, that's where I'd say it was going to fall.

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Another reason for my slight case of bullishness is the NASDAQ and, more specifically, the $MSH. The pattern below is hardly a marvelous long-term hold, but it certainly looks like a decent bounce point; failing Tuesday's lows, however, would really crush this market. The new "oh sh*t!" point in many cases are the lows from Tuesday morning.

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Here we see crude oil (on a continuous basis) spanning back ten years. You can see how it "overshot" its trend very significantly. Likewise, it has "undershot" the trend here. I think that long-term crude oil is going to be bearish, but in the short-term I think it could make a push back to the very low triple digits.

hefeiddd

Here we see crude oil (on a continuous basis) spanning back ten years. You can see how it "overshot" its trend very significantly. Likewise, it has "undershot" the trend here. I think that long-term crude oil is going to be bearish, but in the short-term I think it could make a push back to the very low triple digits.

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I will close by saying this - - I'm tired! This "bear market" stuff is really exhausting. The thing which stinks about the slope of hope (not the blog, but the market) is how it requires such riveted attention. I could have lost a ton of money today if I simply ignored the market. The "wall of worry" (a climbing market) is great because it's plodding, deliberate, and non-volatile. So that's probably the main reason I would love to see us enter a bounce for a little bit; I could really use a break from all this! Something tells me the market doesn't care a whole lot about how rested I feel, though. We need to take it as it comes.....

Posted: 04:32 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

九月 11, 2008 - 04:16 下午Brutal!For a bear, nothing feels better than a day that starts off strong but gets weaker through the entire day, only to completely collapse at the end. Tuesday was a lot like that.
Today was the total opposite. All through the night, the GLOBEX had been very negative, and after the employment figures came out, the S&P was down something like 20 points. The market opened down hard, and it spent most of the day fighting its way higher. Near the end, the climb become frantic, and the Dow wound up over 300 points higher than it had opened. Yuck!
I felt extra bad because I had carefully looked at the OIH and decided it looked pretty bullish. I bought a bunch of it early on, but I sold those calls later in the day for a good profit, declaring that I had lost faith in the longer-term prospects (I had targeted 170 at a level I thought the OIH could reach in the coming days/weeks). Anyway, the OIH also lurched higher, and frankly now it looks more bullish than ever! So it was doubly disappointing.
It also isn't lost on me that the SLIX indicator (that is, the traffic on this blog) spiked dramatically on Monday, and this is often a sign of a major reversal. Shame on me to ignore SLIX, which is something you'd figure I'd be pretty close to respecting! If tomorrow is going to be a big "up" day, I'll be kicking myself even more for not simply going totally into cash on Tuesday, which would be the SLIX-appropriate thing to do.
In spite of Lehman Brothers being at death's door, the $XBD looks like it may have bottomed on July 15th and might be ready to head higher; look at the similar patterns I've tinted below (added to which we didn't come anywhere near the prior low).

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The candlestick pattern on the ETFs is horrifying. Look at the gargantuan bullish engulfing pattern on the DIA.

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The same is try of the IWM (and so many others). This is particularly exasperating since the IWM (and SPY) broke beneath the lows set on September 5th. Indeed, early this morning, it seemed like we would have another sensational multi-hundred-point down day on the Dow.

hefeiddd

The same is try of the IWM (and so many others). This is particularly exasperating since the IWM (and SPY) broke beneath the lows set on September 5th. Indeed, early this morning, it seemed like we would have another sensational multi-hundred-point down day on the Dow.

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The extremely oversold NASDAQ is sporting the same bullish engulfing patterns. I absolutely don't think today broke the bear's back, but a sizeable rally could be in the cards before we resume the downtrend. This is what I'm really concerned about.

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A slightly less scary chart is the minute bar for the Russell 2000, which plainly shows that resistance (represented by the horizontal Retracement line) is still intact.

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All this week, I've been pointing out the bullish potential of gold and energy. The OIH finally caught a bit of fire today, and gold seems to have firmed up on its fan line. I have a handful of bullish positions in gold, and a rally here could push the $XAU back to the mid 130s.

hefeiddd

All this week, I've been pointing out the bullish potential of gold and energy. The OIH finally caught a bit of fire today, and gold seems to have firmed up on its fan line. I have a handful of bullish positions in gold, and a rally here could push the $XAU back to the mid 130s.

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The graph on OIH looks as compelling as it did back in January 2008. I'm angry with myself for not letting the profits on my OIH calls run. This could be a very meaningful move higher.

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It's pretty obvious I'm not feeling as jolly as I was in recent days! It was a rough day overall, including the terrible technical difficulties this morning. I can only hope tomorrow is a better day all around.

Posted: 04:16 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

九月 11, 2008 - 08:20 上午Gap FilledBecause a certain broker that I shan't name (although its 3rd and 4th syllables rhyme with "TradingDistress") can't seem to get their technical act together, it's been a rather perturbing morning. In any event, let's hope the filled gap on IWM and SPY is all the bulls can muster.

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Posted: 08:20 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 10, 2008 - 04:43 下午Disappointment is Job One!Now things are starting to get interesting! A day like Tuesday was almost too easy; not that I'm begging for a challenge or anything. It's been challenging enough being bearish (until recently). But the economic reports that come out Thursday and Friday should help give the market an impetus one way or another.
The reason for the subject of this entry is that bear markets feed off of disappointment. The bulls want a savior - - a white knight - - and what we bears want is for the bulls to embrace that white knight and realize (quickly) that it doesn't make any difference. The latest example (and it's a huge one) was the Monday bailout. The thrill from the largest government intervention in human history last all of one - count 'em, one - trading day. (One a vast smaller scale, the thrill of the LEH strategy, which caused a flood of exciting buying this morning, fizzled away into nothing; after-hours, LEH is plunging to prices now seen since 1998).
I'm really focused on the big ETFs right now, since they yield the best clues as to future direction. Their obedience to the Fibonacci retracements has been amazing. Look at the low on the DIA today, perfectly touching the short-term retracement. From a candlestick viewpoint, this indicates real indecision (but we all knew that already!)

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The same can be said of the SPY; the market is struggling with what to do next. Today's lows got very near the lows witnessed last week (without breaking beneath).

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The IWM was especially interesting, since it is trading below a major and important retracement level; the candlestick of today closely resembles that of last Friday. The tug of war between bulls and bears is getting fierce.

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Looking at a much longer time frame, you can see why I am so bearish. There is still ample room to fall, even if major support is not broken. On the Russell 2000 alone, there are nearly 200 points between current levels and major support.