中国股市现状

野狐禅

对于听得懂鹰语的散仙们，下面这段话还是蛮有意思的：

dozu888 Registered: Apr 2001 Posts: 719

06-24-09 04:00 PM

people keep trading because most of them don't know that edges are hard to get..... the thread you quoted is a perfect example that 95% of the people on this site don't even have the basic knowledge about statistics, and they mistaken things like money management, risk control, discipline etc as an edge.

these are not an edge... an edge is positive expectancy (which is not the same as risk: reward of 1:3 etc, if it's that simple, we set risk/reward ratio of 1:1000 and everybody would be billionaires).

money management, risk control, discipline does not give you positive expectancy.... if you trade a zero to negative expectancy way, these things only guarantee that you die from a thousand small cuts, instead of a sudden blow-up.

So where does positive expectancy come from? For the system trading guys, it's about crunching numbers and taking advantage of a market behavior while it still lasts (nothing last for ever). For the discretionary guys, it's about understanding human behavior in an auction market structure.

Neither approach is easy, the system guys face competition from the big firms with PhDs and super computers; the discretionary guys probably take years to have a reasonably good level of understanding.

Ignorance is bliss - that is why people keep trading.

涨跌A

洗完澡了

野狐禅

看到一些散仙们喜欢练情绪控制法。下面是这样一个棒喝。:*29*:

risktaker Registered: May 2004 Posts: 2076

06-25-09 06:06 AM If you have a solid edge, you don't need psychology stuff. Psychology becomes an issue because you have no edge and your mind begins to question what you're doing as your confidence in your method erodes away. If you have a solid edge/consistently profitable method, psychology rarely enters the realm. Unless, you're a really weak trader to begin with. A trader with a great psychological frame of mind and no edge/losing method just confidently pisses away his entire account. Sort of like a perpetual casino gambler with a permanent smile. No edge=loss of capital & need for psycho shit. Good edge= money making machine & no need for psycho blab. Foolish book authors who say...control your emotions, bla, bla, bla, don't realize that a trader who lack emotional control is someone with no edge. No matter how much 'control' he exerts on himself, he's just going to drain away his account in a controlled manner.

555huli

原帖由 野狐禅 于 2009-7-17 21:23 发表

钱已经在右边了。还有新钱来刺激股市？:*31*:

如果有相对通货膨胀概念的话。俺觉得做庄的玩的就不是钱，而是花样。

蔬菜上的农药太多了。只能吃茄子、土豆。 芸豆吃了一次，啦~~~~~~~~~

555huli

如果你有一个坚实的边缘，你不需要心理的东西。

心理学成为一个问题，因为你没有优势，您的想法开始问你做你信任你的方法削弱了。

如果你有一个坚实的边缘/连续赢利的方法，心理学很少进入境界。除非，你是一个真正薄弱的交易刚开始的时候。

的交易非常心理的心情，也没有边缘/方法只是失去了他的自信pisses的整个帐户。有点像一个永久赌场赌徒与一个永久的微笑。

没有边缘=损失的资本与需要心理GOUSHI。
良好的边缘=金钱使机器不需要心理空话。

愚蠢的书籍作者说...谁控制你的情绪，血乳酸，血乳酸，血乳酸，不知道谁的交易缺乏情绪控制是某人没有优势。不管有多少'控制' ，他发挥自己，他只是要耗费他的帐户控制的方式。

555huli

手掌负责。 P民把权力交给手掌。 要研究心理也是研究手掌的心理。 研究其他P民管DIAO用。

555huli

先了解自己需要什么，在去寻找适合自己的东西。方向正确了，成功应是迟早的事。我

是这样想的，高手门的过程；体会；感悟；经验也是这末暗是的。
=
提高自己首先要学习，像各种伟大的人物学习，例如黄裳同志。 可是，黄裳是不能被俺认识，也不屑被俺理解。为了俺P民的学习，也为了黄裳同志的一桶万年。大假塑造出神。

反正只有鬼才能见得东西，大假们爱怎么说就怎么说。

让领导先走，让故事上万。

555huli

几乎所有经济公司都必须活生生地认识到，偶像与fans之间的关系一切只由细微的情感投入支撑，而这种感情几乎相当于这个时代的男女交往模式——是红果果的市场关系

[ 本帖最后由 555huli 于 2009-7-19 07:06 编辑 ]

野狐禅

原帖由 555huli 于 2009-7-19 06:32 发表
如果你有一个坚实的边缘，你不需要心理的东西。

五狐狸找了一个计算机翻译程序？:*22*:

这里 Edge 是指盈利（不是亏损）能力的大小。那句话是说，如果你知道你的做法一定是净盈利，那你根本不需要所谓的心态控制。

野狐禅

这段也是对散仙们说的，

OddTrader Registered: Mar 2003 Posts: 4442

07-16-09 09:42 AM We build dreams, hence we keep on trading! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...der#post1223643 "38-Steps To Be A Successful Trader by Anonymous 1. We accumulate information--buying books, going to seminars and researching. 2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge. 3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information. 4. We accumulate more information. 5. We switch the commodities we are currently following. 6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge. 7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in. 8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders. 9. We go back into the market and continue to donate. 10. We switch commodities again. 11. We search for more information. 12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress. 13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us. 14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated. Most People Will Give up at this Point as They Realize Work Is Involved. 15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology. 16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing. 17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology. 18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules. 19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute. 20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules. 21. We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading. 22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology. 23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules. 24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rips and our results are still erratic. 25. We know we are close. 26. We go back and research our rules. 27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade. 28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules. 29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them. 30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better. 31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves. 32. We master our methodology and trading rules. 33. We begin to consistently make money. 34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us. 35. We continue to learn our lessons. 36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size. 37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible. 38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of."

野生动物

没几个明白那些的.或者说明白的人都不吭声,闪了.这还是有网络,没有网络的时候,流传的"民间传说"更是如跳大神一般可爱:*29*:

野狐禅

原帖由 野生动物 于 2009-7-19 17:53 发表
没几个明白那些的.或者说明白的人都不吭声,闪了.

我想也是。:*27*:

淡泊赚了就跑

:*22*: :*22*: 看不懂·

野狐禅

原帖由 淡泊赚了就跑 于 2009-7-19 21:24 发表
看不懂·

得天天到山上去听鸟叫，时间长了，就懂鹰语了。:*29*:

涨跌A

鸟开叫了....

color24

:*22*: 看得出，五狐狸的某种情感非常强烈。现在的情况，不知是棒喝太少，还是吃过芸豆的太多 :*31*:

555huli

原帖由 野狐禅 于 2009-7-19 07:16 发表

五狐狸找了一个计算机翻译程序？:*22*:

这里 Edge 是指盈利（不是亏损）能力的大小。那句话是说，如果你知道你的做法一定是净盈利，那你根本不需要所谓的心态控制。

俺知道吸烟有害健康，可还是一天一盒。

英文的心态和古民的心态还不一样。吵股好像做事，成了职业或者习惯。又塔玛的是业余选手。

似乎英文的逻辑性很强，钻石就是钻石，跟钻石想干嘛无关。

P民就是P民，得靠近钻石才显得自己靓一点。

555huli

原帖由 color24 于 2009-7-19 22:20 发表
:*22*: 看得出，五狐狸的某种情感非常强烈。现在的情况，不知是棒喝太少，还是吃过芸豆的太多 :*31*:

老哥隐蔽的很好很好

*d:1*

555huli

原帖由 野生动物 于 2009-7-19 17:53 发表
没几个明白那些的.或者说明白的人都不吭声,闪了.这还是有网络,没有网络的时候,流传的"民间传说"更是如跳大神一般可爱:*29*:

也不见得。 网络这玩意说白了也是同志工具。 本身汉文就有多重意思。再加上纸民同志的需要。

俺就是看老师们想表达什么态度。具体的办法或者对错还是自己走自己路。

相对论的绝对性和绝对的相对论似乎又是一个问题。

各位晚安。

相对论的决定性。:

野狐禅

老和尚帮五狐狸翻译一下鹰语，免得总是鸟对兽讲。:*22*:

If you have a solid edge, you don't need psychology stuff.
如果你能稳地地赢利，你不需要那种心态控制的把戏。

Psychology becomes an issue because you have no edge and your mind begins to question what you're doing as your confidence in your method erodes away.
心态控制登堂入室，是因为你没有确实赢利的做法。因而开始质疑你自己的交易方法，同时对自己的交易方法越来越没有信心。

If you have a solid edge/consistently profitable method, psychology rarely enters the realm. Unless, you're a really weak trader to begin with.
如果你有确实赢利的做法，那几乎没有可能发生需要心态控制的事。除非你确实是一个非常差劲的新手。

A trader with a great psychological frame of mind and no edge/losing method just confidently pisses away his entire account. Sort of like a perpetual casino gambler with a permanent smile.
如果一个交易人员的心理素质非常好，但没有赢利的做法，那他只不过会稳稳定定地把全部钱都尿掉而已，就像那种无可救药，但总是微笑着的赌徒。

No edge=loss of capital & need for psycho shit.
Good edge= money making machine & no need for psycho blab.

没有确实赢利的方法 = 亏钱 + 需要心态控制
有稳定赢利的方法 = 印钱机 + 不需要心态控制

Foolish book authors who say...control your emotions, bla, bla, bla, don't realize that a trader who lack emotional control is someone with no edge. No matter how much 'control' he exerts on himself, he's just going to drain away his account in a controlled manner.
那些说你需要控制心态等乱起八糟的东西的作者，他们不知道那些心态不稳的交易人员是那些没有赢利方法的人。无论那些人怎么控制他自己，他也只会是稳稳地把钱都亏出去。