Introduction
At the moment the wave picture in the main currency pairs remains uncertain.
On the one hand wave patterns on the bigger time frames ma be considered almost completed and ready for the beginning of a new long term trend in favor of the dollar.
On the other hand – the expected strengthening of the dollar hasn’t been confirmed yet as most economic indicators are against it, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar. In this case it isn’t ruled out that the current Forex market sentiment will be reflected in the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29925_8092.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The completion of upward impulse isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If further price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29925_8093.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Relative sizes of the supposed wave flat that has been forming since the middle of January don’t rule out that wave B of a large downward zigzag A-B-C is completed. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29925_8094.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
The completion of downward impulse isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29925_8095.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The completion of downward impulse isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
<P class=“clear If further price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant possible (it is plotted at top of the chart).Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 12, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
At the moment the wave picture in the main currency pair remains uncertain.
On the one hand wave patterns on the bigger time frames ma be considered almost completed and ready for the beginning of a new long term trend in favor of the dollar.
On the other hand – the expected strengthening of the dollar hasn’t been confirmed yet as most economic indicators are against it, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar. In this case it isn’t ruled out that the sentiment of the Forex market participants will be reflected on the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8106.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8107.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward impulse may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8108.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8109.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
An updated wave counting doesn’t rule out that wave B of a big downward zigzag A-B-C, which is assuming the shape of a wave flat, is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8110.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 30 min chart.
Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8111.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward impulse may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this. In case price breaks through the critical level at 98.65 (refer to the Figure below) the current scenario will have to be changed.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8112.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.
In the supposed impulse C wave of C is shorter than wave of C. In this case one should expect that the fifth wave of impulse of C will be the shortest and won’t exceed the 98.65 mark.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8113.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29928_8114.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Downward impulse may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 13, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
At the moment the wave picture in the main currency pair remains uncertain.
On the one hand wave patterns on the bigger time frames ma be considered almost completed and ready for the beginning of a new long term trend in favor of the dollar.
On the other hand – the expected strengthening of the dollar hasn’t been confirmed yet as most economic indicators are against it, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar. In this case it isn’t ruled out that the sentiment of the Forex market participants will be reflected on the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8122.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8123.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward impulse must be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8124.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8125.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The current wave counting doesn’t rule out that wave B of a big downward zigzag A-B-C which is assuming the shape of a wave flat is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8126.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 30 min chart.
Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8127.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward impulse may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this. In case price breaks through the critical level at 98.65 (refer to the Figure below) the current scenario will have to be changed.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8128.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.
In the supposed impulse C wave of C is shorter than wave of C. In this case one should expect that the fifth wave of impulse of C will be the shortest and won’t exceed the 98.65 mark.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8129.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29941_8130.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Downward impulse may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 14, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
The worst fears concerning the US dollar expressed in the forecasts last week are coming true (refer to Introduction in Daily-140308).
Most economic indicators are against the dollar, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar.
Such a sentiment of the Forex market participants is reflected on the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29956_8149.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The ending wave (v) of upward impulse may be assuming the shape of an extension.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29956_8150.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Among the main European currencies at the moment only the pound is declining against the dollar and consequently against the other currencies under consideration (for example refer to the charts of EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29956_8151.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) breaks through one critical level after another each time making us reconsider the wave picture. So far scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 remain actual (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29956_8152.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The ending wave (v) of the downward impulse may be assuming the shape of an extension.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 17, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
Today at 21:15 (Msc) FOMC is expected to announce its new fed funds rate. But negative expectations of the market participants have already weakened the dollar considerably which is reflected in the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29968_8169.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave (v) of upward impulse may be assuming the shape of an extension. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves is needed for its completion.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29968_8170.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Among major European currencies at the moment only the pound is declining against the dollar and consequently against the other currencies under consideration (for example refer to the charts of EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY).
The updated counting doesn’t rule out that the supposed wave B has assumed the shape of a double zigzag and may continue developing in a zigzag mode.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29968_8171.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) breaks through one critical level after another each time making us reconsider the wave picture. So far scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 remain actual (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29968_8172.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave (v) of downward impulse of Y may be assuming the shape of an extension. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves is needed for its completion.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29968_8173.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave (v) of downward impulse may be assuming the shape of an extension. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves is needed for its completion.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 18, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
The Fed’s interest-rate cut yesterday was expected by the Forex market participants. Their expectations were reflected in the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels. That’s why it isn’t ruled out that the decline of the dollar will stop at that having left a little bit crumpled top of impulse in the chart and a phase of its strengthening at least local will begin.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29982_8187.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD) будет закрепление цены ниже границы трендового канала и ниже подтверждающего уровня.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29982_8188.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29982_8189.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29982_8190.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29982_8191.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 19, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
The wave structure of the last days doesn’t rule the completion of the dollar’s decline and the beginning of its strengthenin(local? global?).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 20 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8208.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 20 min chart. Variant 1.
The downward structure of the last days can be easily represented as a forming wedge (i)?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8209.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition about a downward wedge is true it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave is completed. If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8210.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Price fell below the border of the upward trend channel which supposes its further decline.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 20 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8211.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 20 min chart.
The upward structure of the last days can be easily represented as a forming impulse (i)?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8212.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
If the supposition of a forming upward impulse is true it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave of Y is completed. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8213.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 7 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 10 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8214.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 10 min chart. Variant 1.
The upward structure of the last days can be easily represented as a forming impulse (i)?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/29992_8215.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of an upward impulse is true it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave is completed. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 20, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
1) Investors from the European Union (EUR), Great Britain(GBP), Switzerland (CHF), Australia (AUD), Canada (CAD) and New Zealand (NZD) are away from 21st till 24th March due to Easter holiday.
2) The wave structure of the last days doesn’t rule out the completion of the dollar’s decline and the beginning of its strengthening. At the moment it is premature to say whether it will be a long-term trend or a local correction before another stage of the dollar’s weakening.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30006_8230.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition about a downward wedge is true it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave is completed. If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30006_8231.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Price fell below the border of the upward trend channel which supposes its further decline.
But if the supposed wave B decides to continue its zigzag forming the downward zigzag of the last days may prove to be wave of B (refer to the alternate counting at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30006_8232.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
If the supposition of an upward impulse is true it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave of Y is completed. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30006_8233.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30006_8234.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of an upward impulse is true it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave is completed. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 21, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
1) Investors from the European Union (EUR), Great Britain(GBP), Switzerland (CHF), Australia (AUD), Canada (CAD) and New Zealand (NZD) are away from 21st till 24th March due to Easter holiday.
2) The wave structure of the last days doesn’t rule out the completion of the dollar’s decline and the beginning of its strengthening. At the moment it is premature to say whether it will be a long-term trend or a local correction before another stage of the dollar’s weakening.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8239.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Downward structure of the last days may be represented as a completing impulse (i)?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8240.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If this is the case the completion of the supposed wave isn’t ruled out. If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 40 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8241.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 40 min chart. Variant 1.
Downward structure of the last days may be represented as a completing impulse ?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8242.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Price fell below the border of upward trend channel that supposes its further decline.
But if the supposed wave B decides to continue its zigzag forming the downward structure of the last days may prove to be wave of B (refer to the alternate counting at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8243.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 30 min chart.
Upward structure of the last days may be represented as a completing impulse (i)?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8244.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
If this is the case the completion of the supposed wave of Y isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8245.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8246.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward structure of the last days may be represented as a completing impulse (i)?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30014_8247.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of an upward impulse is true it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave is completed. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 24, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
The wave structure of the last days doesn’t rule out the completion of the dollar’s decline and the beginning of its strengthening. At the moment it is premature to say whether it will be a long-term trend or a local correction before another stage of the dollar’s weakening.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8249.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.
The downward structure of the last days may be represented in the form of a completing impulse (i)?. If this is the case the ending decline of price (the supposed wave v of (i)?) may be used for opening short positions.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8250.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of the downward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave isn’t ruled out. If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8251.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.
The downward structure of the last days may be represented in the form of a completing impulse ?. If this is the case the ending price decline (the supposed wave (v) of ?) may be used for opening short positions.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8252.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Price fell below the border of the upward trend channel that supposes its further decline.
But if the supposed wave B decides to continue its zigzag forming the downward structure of the last days may prove to be wave of B (refer to the alternate counting at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8253.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 60 min chart.
The upward structure of the last days may be represented in the form of a completing impulse (i)?. If this is the case the ending price rise (the supposed wave v of (i)?) may be used for opening long positions.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8254.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave of Y isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8255.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8256.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.
The upward structure of the last days may be represented in the form of a completing impulse (i)?. If this is the case the ending price rise (the supposed wave v of (i)?) may be used for opening long positions.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30025_8257.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 25, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
The wave structure of the last days doesn’t rule out the completion of the dollar’s decline and the beginning of its strengthening. At the moment it is premature to say whether it will be a long-term trend or a local correction before another stage of the dollar’s weakening.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8280.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.
Unfortunately the supposed further forming of wave (i) wasn’t confirmed (it’s better to close opened short positions).
As price has considerable moved away from the borders of the trend channel we may suppose the development of correction (ii) or its first wave a of (ii).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8281.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of the downward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave isn’t ruled out. If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8282.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Unfortunately the supposed further forming of wave in the form of an impulse wasn’t confirmed (it is better to close opened short positions).
The current wave picture accepts that the downtrend is assuming the form of a large diagonal triangle C, in which the first zigzag (refer to the Figure below) is completed, or wave is assuming the shape of an incomplete wedge.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8283.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Price fell below the border of the upward trend channel that supposes its further decline..
But it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave B will decide to continue its zigzag forming (refer to the alternate counting at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8284.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 60 min chart.
Unfortunately the supposed further forming of wave (i) hasn’t been confirmed, (it is better to close opened long positions).
As price has considerably moved away from the border of the trend channel we may suppose the development of correction (ii) or its first wave a of (ii).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8285.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave of Y isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8286.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8287.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.
Unfortunately the supposed further forming of wave (i) hasn’t been confirmed, (it is better to close opened long positions).
As price has considerably moved away from the border of the trend channel we may suppose the development of correction (ii) or its first wave a of (ii).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30041_8288.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 26, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
The wave structure of the last days doesn’t rule out the completion of the dollar’s decline and the beginning of its strengthening. At the moment it is premature to say whether it will be a long-term trend or a local correction before another stage of the dollar’s weakening.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart..
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8313.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 60 min time frame. Variant 1.
As price has approached the critical level it questions forming of downward impulse (i). If price crosses this border scenario v.1-2, considered in Monthly-0308 will become the most probable. But some sub-variants are also possible (refer to Figures 2 and 3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8314.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 20 min time frame. Variant 1-2-1.
An upward and rather proportional zigzag may be forming. In case price crosses the critical level (refer to Figure 1) this zigzag may prove to be wave (b) of . But as usually there is an alternate variant (refer to Figure 3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8315.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 20 min time frame. Variant 1-2-2.
It is also possible that the upward structure of the last days is a forming impulse. In this case this impulse may be wave or its first subwave (i) of .
As the phrase goes find 10 differences in Figures 2 and 3 ;)
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8316.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min time frame. Variant 1.
As long as the critical level isn’t broken I will keep to scenario v.1 which is most synchronous with the other currency pairs under consideration. If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8317.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min time frame. Variant 1.
The current wave picture supposes that the downward trend is assuming the shape of either a large diagonal triangle C, in which the first zigzag is completed (refer to the Figure below), or wave is assuming the shape of an incomplete wedge.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8318.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min time frame. Variant 1.
Price fell below the border of the upward trend channel that supposes its further decline. But it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave B will decide to continue its zigzag forming (refer to the alternate counting at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8319.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 60 min time frame.
As price has moved away from the borders of the trend channel it supposes developing of correction (ii) or (b).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8320.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min time frame.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true it the completion of the supposed wave of Y isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8321.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8322.gif
Figure 10. Wave counting on 60 min time frame. Variant 1.
As price has considerably moved away from the borders of the trend channel it supposes developing of correction (ii) or (b).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30048_8323.gif
Figure 11. Wave counting on 480 min time frame. Variant 1.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 27, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
1). The wave structure of the last days doesn’t rule out the completion of the dollar’s decline and the beginning of its strengthening. At the moment it is premature to say whether it will be a long-term trend or a local correction before another stage of the dollar’s weakening..
2). Forecast for April 2008 will be released at the weekend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30057_8338.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.
As price has approached the critical level it questions forming of a downward impulse (i). Possible alternate scenario v.1-2 was considered in Monthly-0308 and yesterday in Daily-270308.
At the same time the completion of correction (ii) or (b) isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30057_8339.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
As long as the critical level isn’t broken I will keep to scenario v.1 which is most synchronous with the other currency pairs under consideration. If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30057_8340.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The current wave picture allows that the downward trend is assuming the shape of either a large diagonal triangle C, in which first waves and are completed (refer to the Figure below), or wave is assuming the shape of an incomplete wedge.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The price fell below the border of the upward trend channel that supposes its further decline. But it isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave B will decide to continue its zigzag forming (refer to the alternate counting at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30057_8342.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 60 min chart.
Correction (ii) or (b) may be completed. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30057_8343.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true it the completion of the supposed wave of Y isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 60 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30057_8344.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.
Correction (ii) or (b) may be completed. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30057_8345.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition of the upward impulse is true the completion of the supposed wave isn’t ruled out. If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008 [*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 28, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out that the price prefers scenario v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008)).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30080_8379.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out that the price prefers scenario v.3. If this is the case we can expect developing of corrective wave (iv) of till the second half of April.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30080_8380.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Survey counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out further forming of leg (C) of a large upward zigzag and forming of its ending wave 5 of (C), which may assume the shape of an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle. If this is the case corrective wave (ii) (or ) may be developing till the second half of April.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30080_8381.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out that the price prefers scenario v.3. If this is the case we may expect developing of corrective wave 4 of (3) till the second half of April.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart..
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30080_8382.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out that the price prefers scenario v.3. If this is the case we may expect developing of corrective wave (iv) of till the second half of April.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008 )[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 31, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out that the price prefers scenario v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008)).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8398.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
If the supposition about scenario v.3 is true we may expect forming of corrective wave (iv) of in the shape of a flat or some combination of threes till the second half of April.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8399.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting supposes in the nearest future the beginning of a downward local trend in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle c of (iv) with the target in the area of the 1.53 mark.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8400.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out further forming of leg (C) of a large upward zigzag and forming of its ending wave 5 of (C), which may assume the shape of an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle. If this is the case corrective wave (ii) (or of the diagonal triangle) may be developing till the second half of April.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8401.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
If we consider the price movement synchronously with other currencies we should expect further developing of downward impulse c of (ii). But almost completed impulse ? May prove to be the ending point of the whole correction (ii).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8402.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
If the supposition about scenario v.3 is true we may expect forming of corrective wave 4 of (3) in the shape of an upward zigzag till the second half of April.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8403.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting supposes in the nearest future the beginning of an upward local trend in the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle of 4 with the target in the area of the 104 mark.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8404.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
If the supposition about scenario v.3 is true we may expect forming of corrective wave (iv) of in the shape of an upward zigzag till the second half of April.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30090_8405.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting supposes in the near future the beginning of an upward local trend in the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle c of (iv) with the target in the area of the 1.03 mark.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008 )[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 1, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out that the price prefers scenario v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008)).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8420.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The sharp decline in EUR/USD yesterday supposes the completion of wave flat a-b-c in the nearest future. Further developing of wave picture will show whether it will be wave (iv) in whole or only its first part.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8421.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting supposes the completion of wave flat (iv) in the nearest future. It isn’t ruled out that this pattern will assume the shape of a running flat with the ending in the area of the 1.55 mark and not the 1.53 mark as it was expected previously (refer to Daily-010408).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8422.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out further forming of leg (C) of a large upward zigzag and forming of its ending wave 5 of (C), which may assume the shape of an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle. If this is the case corrective wave (ii) may complete in the nearest future. If the correction lasts until the second half of April most probably it will be wave of a diagonal triangle.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8423.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Almost completed downward impulse ---- supposedly is the ending point of the whole correction (ii).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8424.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The sharp rise in USD/JPY yesterday supposes the completion of zigzag -- in the nearest future. Further developing of wave picture will show whether it will be wave 4 of (3) in the whole or only its first part.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8425.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting supposes the completion of zigzag 4 in the nearest future. It isn’t ruled out that the second leg of the zigzag will be shorter than the first one with the ending in the area of the 103 mark and not 104 as it was expected previously (refer to Daily-010408).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8426.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The sharp rise in USD/CHF yesterday supposes the completion of zigzag a-b-c in the nearest future. Further developing of wave picture will show whether it will be wave (iv) in the whole or only its first part.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30100_8427.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting supposes the completion of wave flat (iv) in the nearest future. It isn’t ruled out that this pattern will assume the shape of a (truncated) zigzag with the ending in the area of the 1.02 mark and not 1.03 as it was expected earlier (refer to Daily-010408).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008 )[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 2, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Learn more[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Introduction
In the framework of scenario v.3 a volatile wave picture in the currencies under consideration has formed. On the one hand GBP/USD and USD/JPY formed quite proportional corrective patterns and don’t rule out immediate beginning of a new stage of the dollar’s weakening (the rise of GBP/USD and decline of USD/JPY). On the other hand corrective patterns of EUR/USD and USD/CHF look incomplete at the moment (a running flat and a truncated zigzag correspondingly), that doesn’t rule the continuation of their forming, i.e. price movement in favor of the dollar.
In this situation it is better to close positions in favor of the dollar with total profit of more than 400 pips or to trail protective stop orders to the maximum (refer to Daily-010408).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8450.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
To form a full-fledged wave flat (or extended horizontal correction) the price must fall to the 1.53 mark. But the strength of the upward trend may form wave (iv) of in the shape of a running flat (refer to the Figure below and section 3.6 of my book).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8451.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting doesn’t rule out that the running wave flat (iv) is completed. At the same time if the price breaks the 1.5531 level a deeper downward developing of wave (iv) isn’t ruled out.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8452.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Survey wave counting on the bigger Time Frames doesn’t rule out that leg (C) of a large upward zigzag continues forming and at the moment its ending wave 5 of (C) is forming which may assume the shape of an upward impulse of a diagonal triangle.
The price has reached the lower border of the trend channel having formed a rather proportional zigzag (ii). It is natural to expect an upward reversal of the local trend and further forming of upward wave 5 of (C).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8453.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
A completed downward impulse ---- supposedly is the ending point of the whole correction (ii). At the same time if price breaks the 1.9739 level a deeper developing of wave (ii) isn’t ruled out.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8454.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The price has reached the upper border of the trend channel having formed a quite proportional zigzag 4 of (3). It is natural to expect a downward reversal of the local trend and further forming of downward wave (3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8455.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of the counting doesn’t rule out the completion of zigzag 4. At the same time if price breaks the 103 level a deeper upward developing of wave 4. isn’t ruled out
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8456.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
To form a full-fledged zigzag the price must rise to the 1.03 mark. But the strength of the downward trend may form wave (iv) of in the shape of a truncated zigzag (refer to the Figure below and section 3.6 of my book).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30115_8457.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting doesn’t rule out the completion of truncated zigzag (iv). At the same time in case price breaks the 1.0162 level a deeper upward developing of wave (iv) isn’t ruled out.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008 )[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 3, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
Wave counting at the moment doesn’t rule out further strengthening of the dollar in the framework of scenario v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30125_8472.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
To form a wave flat (or extended horizontal correction) the price must fall to the 1.53 mark (refer to Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30125_8473.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants doesn’t rule out forming of downward zigzag c of (iv) with wave of c of (iv) in the shape of a flat.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30125_8474.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
As an accepted variant of counting we may suppose that wave (ii) is assuming the shape of a double zigzag. In this case price movement of the pound will be synchronous with the other European currencies.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30125_8475.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
If the supposition of a double zigzag is true it is better to close long positions with a little profit (refer to Daily-030408) and probably to «reverse», i.e. to open short positions in favor of the dollar.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30125_8476.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The price has reached the upper border of the trend channel having formed a rather proportional zigzag 4 of (3). It is natural to wait for a confirmation of its completion and a downward reversal of the local trend.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30125_8477.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
To form a full zigzag the price must rise to the 1.03 mark (refer to the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30125_8478.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
One of the possible variants of counting doesn’t rule out further forming of an upward impulse c of (iv) with wave of c of (iv) in the shape of a flat.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008 )[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 4, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
At the moment the wave counting doesn’t rule out completion of USD local strengthening in the framework of scenario v.3 and its new fall (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30140_8496.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The horizontal correction may be an almost completed triangle (iv), which is characteristic of the fourth waves of the impulse.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30140_8497.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
If the supposition of the horizontal triangle is correct then quite good perspectives for long positions are possible.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30140_8498.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
As a possible variant of counting, synchronous with the other European currencies, we may suppose that forming of the horizontal triangle (iv) of , which may be the last but one wave in the pattern of the higher level, is almost completed.
If the supposition of the horizontal triangle is true it is a forming wedge rather than wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 as it was supposed before.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30140_8499.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The price has reached the upper border of the trend channel having formed a proportional zigzag 4 of (3). It is natural to wait for a confirmation of its completion and a downward reversal of the local trend.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30140_8500.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The horizontal correction may be an almost completed triangle (iv), which is characteristic of the fourth waves of the impulse.
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
If the supposition of the horizontal triangle is correct then quite good perspectives for short positions are possible.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008 )[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 7, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
At the moment the wave counting doesn’t rule out completion of USD local strengthening in the framework of scenario v.3 and its new fall (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
Supposedly wave (iv) of is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the horizontal triangle (iv), which is characteristic of the fourth waves of the impulse.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30144_8515.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting triangle (iv) may keep forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
As a possible variant of counting, synchronous with the other European currencies, we may suppose that forming of the horizontal triangle (iv) of , which may be the last but one wave in the pattern of the higher level, is almost completed.
If the supposition of the horizontal triangle is true it is a forming wedge rather than wave sequence 1-2, 1-2 as it was supposed before.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30144_8517.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting triangle (iv) may keep forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30144_8518.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
The price has reached the upper border of the trend channel having formed a proportional zigzag 4 of (3). It is natural to wait for a confirmation of its completion and a downward reversal of the local trend.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30144_8519.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting zigzag 4 may keep forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0408. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30144_8520.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.
Supposedly wave (iv) of is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the horizontal triangle (iv), which is characteristic of the fourth waves of the impulse.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/9/30144_8521.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting triangle (iv) may keep forming.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008 [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]System of equations with an endless number of solutions [*]USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008 )[*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 8, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.