Introduction
An extreme point was formed on July 5. It may be the starting point for the long-term USD strengthening for the European currencies FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007]. At the same time it is not confirmed yet that current USD weakening has completed. That is the above mentioned extreme point may be adjusted many times.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Currently we observe either wave XX forming in the shape of some horizontal correction (this is the most preferable variant 3) or scenario 2 development Annual-07(2) ].
Supposedly, wave or forming is completed, though it is not confirmed yet.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
According to scenario 2 the price has reached the projected area having formed zigzag of Y. If this variant is confirmed current ending of supposed wave (B) or (X) will be its critical level. Confirmatory levels are given in the chart.
Alternatively according to this scenario simple zigzag of Y may transform into the double/triple zigzag.
GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Currently we observe either wave XX forming in the shape of some horizontal correction (this is the most preferable variant 3) or scenario 2 development Annual-07(2) ].
Supposedly, wave or forming is completed, though it is not confirmed yet.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
According to scenario 2 the price has reached the projected area having formed zigzag of Y. If this variant is confirmed current ending of supposed wave (B) or (X) will be its critical level. Confirmatory levels are given in the chart.
Alternatively according to this scenario simple zigzag of Y may transform into the double/triple zigzag.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly, JPY has completed wave xii and it keeps forming upward wave xiii.
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Figure 6. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
At the same time scenario v.1 may come into force.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly, currently some horizontal correction is forming Annual-07(2) ]. To remain a triangle the price should not fall below the critical level at 1.1993 or rise above 1.2466.
Supposedly, wave (d) of forming is completed, though it is not confirmed yet.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
At the same time it may be scenario 2 Annual-07(2) ]. The price has reached the projected area having formed zigzag of Y. If this variant is confirmed current ending of supposed wave (B) or (X) will be its critical level. Confirmatory levels are given in the chart.
Alternatively according to this scenario simple zigzag of Y may transform into the double/triple zigzag and horizontal triangle Y of (B) into the triple three.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007) [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for July 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 6, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Yesterday's fear that the trend against the dollar is not completed has been justified as the dollar was losing its position against the pairs under consideration (see Daily-100707). Moreover, now we see an interesting wave picture, we are just in several steps from the moment of the preferable scenarios change and it depends only on the price which senario it will choose in the nearest future (see the details in the correspondent parts).
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposed double zigzag or has not broken the optimum proportions for the main waves of correction XX and scenario v.3 is still valid. But the fact that the upward movement is impetuous allows us to treat it as an incomplete impulse, turning the balance in favor of scenario v.2 Annual-07(2) ].
In fact, if price transforms the last zigzag a-b-c of (y) of or into an impulse (for it several additional waves of Micro-1 degree are required), shift to scenario v.2 will be reasonable Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27445_3917.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Price may form such an impulse (a) of of Y in the nearest future. In this case chances of scenario v.2 will increase significantly Annual-07(2) ].
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Figure 3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
According to scenario v.2 the price has reached the projected area completing impulse (a) of of Y of (B). To confirm such a variant the price should complete zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of of Y of (B) forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposed double zigzag or of GBP has not broken the optimum proportions for the main waves of correction XX and scenario v.3 is still valid. But the fact that the upward movement is impetuous allows us to treat it as an incomplete impulse Annual-07(2) ].
In fact, if price transforms the last zigzag a-b-c of (y) of or into an impulse (for it several additional waves of Micro-1 degree are required), shift to scenario v.2 will be reasonable Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27445_3920.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Price may form such an impulse (a) of of Y in the nearest future. In this case chances of scenario v.2 will increase significantly Annual-07(2) ].
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Figure 6. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
According to scenario v.2 the price has reached the projected area completing impulse (a) of of Y of (B). To confirm such a variant the price should complete zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of of Y of (B) forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 720 min chart.
Supposedly, JPY has almost completed wave xii. Though RSI has reached its resistance level, supposing that uptrend is possible in the nearest future, the price is too near the critical level, if the latter is broken the preferred scenario may change (given in the chart).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposed double zigzag (d) has not broken the critical level yet and scenario v.3 is still valid. The price may disturb the shape of the triangle. Moreover, the fact that the downward movement is impetuous allows us to treat it as an incomplete impulse (see the next picture).
In fact, if price transforms the last zigzag -- of y of (d) into an impulse (for it several additional waves of Micro-1 degree are required), shift to the alternate scenario will be reasonable (see the next picture).
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Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Price may form such an impulse (a) of of Y in the nearest future. In this case chances of scenario v.3-alt will increase significantly (see the next picture).
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Figure 10. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
According to scenario v.3 wave of Y of (B) may be assuming the shape of the double three rather than horizontal triangle as supposed before. By its external shape the double three is like the first waves of the contracting triangle (the so-called variant of the truncated triangle).
According to this alternate variant (let's call it v.3-alt because of slight differences from variant v.3) the price completes impulse (a) of of Y of (B) forming. Price should complete zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of of Y of (B) forming to confirm this variant.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)[*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for July 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 11, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Price of the European currencies did not change the direction of the trend yesterday. Supposedly, it has started correction forming, which signals that the dollar may keep falling. Moreover, CHF has broken the critical level, that is why the scenario of continuous horizontal correction becomes less probable. This increases chances of the scenarios considered yesterday. Thus, if the trend becomes valid and yesterday's supposition of impulse forming is confirmed (see Daily-110707) change of the preferred scenarios will be inevitable.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly, upward impulse (a) of of Y is forming, several additional waves of Micro-1 level are required for its completion. In this case chances of scenario v.2 will increase significantly Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27458_3935.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27458_3936.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Just like EUR GBP may be forming upward impulse (a) of of Y, several additional waves of Micro-1 level are required for its completion. In this case chances of scenario v.2 will increase significantly Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27458_3937.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart.
RSI method did not fail us yesterday (see Daily-110707) — price rebounded upwards, it did not break the critical level. Though the wave pattern and direction of other dollar pairs supposes that downward movement may continue in the shape of the zigzag structure according to scenario v.1 Annual-07(2) ].
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
If the supposition is correct downward impulse c of (w) is not completed yet, in spite of the fact that correction of c of (w) is unusually deep for the fourth waves.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
If price does not break the critical level at 115.14 then it is more probable that for further movement it has chosen scenario v.1.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward impulse (a) of of Y may be forming, several additional waves of Micro-1 level are required for its completion. Yesterday price has broken the critical level at 1.1993, the scenario with the horizontal triangle becomes doubtful. This increases chances of scenario v.3-alt Daily-110707 and Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27458_3942.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)[*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for July 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 12, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Price is forming correction which signals that the dollar may keep falling. Moreover, CHF has broken the critical level, that is why the scenario of continuous horizontal correction becomes less probable. This increases chances of the considered scenarios (see Daily-110707).
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27472_3952.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly, upward impulse (a) of of Y is forming, several additional waves of Micro-1 level are required for its completion. In this case chances of scenario v.2 will increase significantly Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27472_3953.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27472_3954.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Just like EUR GBP may be forming upward impulse (a) of of Y, several additional waves of Micro-1 level are required for its completion. In this case chances of scenario v.2 will increase significantly Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27472_3955.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart.
Judging by the wave structure and direction of other dollar pairs downward movement may continue in the zigzag mode in accordance with scenario v.1 Annual-07(2) ].
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
If the supposition is correct downward impulse c of (w) is not completed yet, in spite of the fact that correction of c of (w) is unusually deep for the fourth waves.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27472_3958.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward impulse (a) of of Y may be forming, several additional waves of Micro-1 level are required for its completion. Yesterday price has broken the critical level at 1.1993, the scenario with the horizontal triangle becomes doubtful. This increases chances of scenario v.3-alt Daily-110707 and Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27472_3959.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)[*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for July 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 13, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
1) Supposedly, for the European currencies local USD falling in the shape of the impulse (a) is almost completed, it may be the first leg of the final zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) Annual-07(2) ]. If the supposition is correct correction in the shape of the tricky wave (b) of this zigzag may be in store for us till the end of July .
2) Daily wave analysis won't be released from July 23 till August 12 as I will be on vocation.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3982.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly, upward impulse (a) of of Y is forming, completion of the last wave of Micro-1 level is required for its ending.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3983.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3984.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Just like EUR GBP may be forming upward impulse (a) of of Y, completion of the last wave of Micro-1 level is required for its ending.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3985.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3986.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart.
Judging by the wave structure and direction of other dollar pairs USD/JPY nearest fall is possible in the shape of the zigzag structure in accordance with scenario v.1 Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3987.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
If the supposition is correct downward impulse c of (w) is not completed yet, in spite of the fact that correction of c of (w) is unusually deep for the fourth waves.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3988.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward impulse (a) of of Y may be forming, completion of the last wave of Micro-1 level is required for its ending.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27494_3989.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)[*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for July 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 16, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
1) Supposedly, for the European currencies local USD falling in the shape of the impulse (a) is almost completed, it may be the first leg of the final zigzag Annual-07(2) ]. If the supposition is correct correction in the shape of the tricky wave (b) of the zigzag may be in store for us till the end of July.
2) Daily wave analysis won't be released from July 23 till August 12 as I will be on vocation.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4001.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly, upward impulse (a) of of Y is forming, completion of the last wave of Micro-1 level is required for its ending.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4002.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4003.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Just like EUR GBP may be forming upward impulse (a) of of Y, completion of the last wave of Micro-1 level is required for its ending.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4004.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 720 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4005.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart.
Judging by the wave structure and direction of other dollar pairs USD/JPY nearest fall is possible in the shape of the zigzag structure in accordance with scenario v.1 Annual-07(2) ].
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4006.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
If the supposition is correct downward impulse c of (w) is not completed yet, in spite of the fact that correction of c of (w) is unusually deep for the fourth waves.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0707. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4007.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward impulse (a) of of Y may be forming, completion of the last wave of Micro-1 level is required for its ending.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4008.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting of supposed impulse (a) current weakening of the dollar is not completed yet.
5. USD/CADIn article Possible CAD Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) three possible variants of USD/CAD downtrend completion were considered. Supposedly the price has chosen the alternate scenario, considered in details in this article. In accordance with this scenario global impulse is almost completed. Great chances of this scenario were based on the wave structure, waves correlation and impetuous price fall.
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Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Impulse may be almost completed. The basis of this supposition is shown on the next chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27500_4010.gif
Figure 10. Wave counting on 240 min chart.
May be wave 5 (or wave of 3 of the possible alternate variant) has assumed the shape of the diagonal triangle with the longest first wave of 5. If the supposition is correct it provides us with the limit level at 1.0394 which should not be broken by the price (wave should not be the shortest one). Otherwise, the current wave counting will be adjusted.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)[*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for July 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 17, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
The final waves of correction (b) for the European currencies decided to form an extension. Well, the deeper the falling the higher the rebound. If the supposition is correct in the nearest future we should expect correction (b) completion and beginning of the mid-term trend against the dollar in the shape of the second leg (c) of the final zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) Annual-07(2) ].
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0807. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27770_4467.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave of c of (b) extension keeps forming, it approaches the critical level. I expect correction (b) completion confirmed and new uptrend start forming in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (c) of .
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0807. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27770_4468.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave (5) of of y of (b) extension approaches the critical level. I expect correction (b) completion confirmed and new uptrend start forming in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (c) of .
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0807. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27770_4469.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward impulse of C is supposed to be forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Месячном-0807. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27770_4470.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave of c of (b) extension overcame wave a of (b) ending, that's why we may consider supposed flat (b) to be extended. I expect correction (b) completion to be confirmed and new downtrend to start forming in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (c) of .
4. USD/CHFUnfortunately, anticipation of possible incompleteness of downward zigzag for EUR-JPY and GBP-JPY, described in article EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, has been proved. Supposed (and possible) ending of zigzag has turned out to be just the first wave of the final impulse of this zigzag. The only thing to do now is to wait for downward correction completion to be confirmed. Adjusted wave counting markings are given below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27770_4471.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart of EUR/JPY.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27770_4472.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 720 min chart of GBP/JPY.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)[*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for August 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 16, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Yesterday JPY reached the projected area having confirmed supposed scenario v.2 Annual-07(2) ]. The European currencies keep forming the final waves of supposed correction (b). If the supposition is correct in the nearest future we should expect correction (b) completion and beginning of the mid-term trend against the dollar in the shape of the second leg (c) of the final zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) Annual-07(2) ].
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0807. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27789_4495.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave of c of (b) extension keeps forming, it approaches the critical level. I expect correction (b) completion confirmed and new uptrend start forming in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (c) of .
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0807. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27789_4496.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave (5) of of y of (b) extension approaches the critical level. I expect correction (b) completion confirmed and new uptrend start forming in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (c) of .
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0807. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27789_4497.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
The price has entered the projected area for 25 points confirming the accepted scenario v.2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27789_4498.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
According to the adjusted variant of the wave counting downward impulse of C may be forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0807. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27789_4499.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave of c of (b) extension overcame wave a of (b) ending, that's why we may consider supposed flat (b) to be extended. I expect correction (b) completion to be confirmed and new downtrend to start forming in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (c) of .
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY (+EUR/JPY)[*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for August 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 17, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
1.EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27993_4863.gif
Scenario v.3 hasn’t been annuled yet. The latest uptrend may be interpreted as a double zigzag (iv).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07(2) и Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27993_4864.gif
The pound practically replicates the euro’s “moves”. Scenario v.3 hasn’t been annuled yet. The latest uptrend may be interpreted as a double zigzag (iv).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of the JPY refer to Annual-07(2) и Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27993_4865.gif
Admittedly in the context of the scenario v.2 of the JPY a downward impulse C is forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of the CHF refer to Annual -07(2) и Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart..
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27993_4866.gif
Possibly the wave (y) of has started already
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 03, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Last week the price moves in a rather narrow range, increasing the number of variants of probable wave counting. This bifurcation point was mentioned in the Monthly-0907. I hope in the nearest future it will become clear which of two scenarios the price will prefer. Up until that time I will have to consider both variants.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of the EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28002_4881.gif
Scenario v.3 hasn’t been annuled yet. The latest uptrend may be interpreted as a double zigzag (iv). If the supposition is true the wave (v) of must develop in the shape of downward (double) zigzag, having reached all the confirming levels and without breaking the critical level.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28002_4882.gif
At the same time practically horizontal pattern of the last week may be interpreted in the form of incomplete correction iv of (a) of the scenario v.3-alt. If it is so, the final upward impulse or diagonal triangle may reach the 1.38 mark.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of the GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28002_4883.gif
The pound practically replicates the euro’s “moves”. Scenario v.3 hasn’t been annuled yet. The latest uptrend may be interpreted as a double zigzag (iv). If the supposition is true the wave (v) of must develop in the shape of downward (double) zigzag, having reached all the confirming levels and without breaking the critical level.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28002_4884.gif
At the same time practically horizontal pattern of the last week may be interpreted in the form of incomplete correction iv of (a) of the scenario v.3-alt. If it is so, the closing upward impulse or diagonal triangle may reach the 2.04 mark.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of the JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28002_4885.gif
Admittedly in the context of the scenario v.2 for the JPY a downward impulse C is forming, and at the present time the correctional wave of C is forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of the CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28002_4886.gif
Probably the wave (y) of has started already, but the price fails to break out of the consolidation area 1.20-1.21, giving the possibility to interpret differently this section of the chart (see the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28002_4887.gif
As long as there is no confirmation of the wave ending, there is always a possibility of its development.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 04, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Last week the price moves in a rather narrow range, increasing the number of variants of probable wave counting. This bifurcation point was mentioned in the Monthly-0907.
Wave picture practically hasn’t changed and remains widerange. But taking into consideration the fact that after price consolidation the trend continues, then scenarios with the dollar’s weakening in the near term slightly outweigh others.
I hope in the nearest future it will become clear which of two scenarios the price will prefer. Up until that time I will have to consider both variants.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of the EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4901.gif
Scenario v.3 hasn’t been annuled yet. The latest uptrend may be interpreted as a double zigzag (iv). If the supposition is true the wave (v) of must develop in the shape of downward (double) zigzag, having reached all the confirming levels and without breaking the critical level.
At the moment the wave picture on the smaller charts doesn't give any saving hint (see the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4902.gif
Lately as you see there have been only zigzags with increasing amplitude. Such picture easily fits both scenarios under consideration (see the Figure below). However in the near term the preferred price movement is upward.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4903.gif
At the same time practically horizontal pattern of the last week may be interpreted in the form of incomplete correction iv of (a) of or (x) of of the scenario v.3-alt. If it is so, the final upward impulse or diagonal triangle may reach the 1.38 mark.
The wave picture on smaller wave levels doesn’t contradict this supposition (see the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4904.gif
Possibly an extended horizontal correction is forming (see the tables 3-1 and 3-2 in my book). If the supposition is true in the near term preferred price movement is only upward.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of the GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4905.gif
The pound practically replicates the euro’s “moves”. Scenario v.3 hasn’t been annuled yet. The latest uptrend may be interpreted as a double zigzag (iv). If the supposition is true the wave (v) of must develop in the shape of downward (double) zigzag, having reached all the confirming levels and without breaking the critical level.
At the moment the wave picture on the smaller charts gives a small hint in favor of the alternative variant (see the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4906.gif
The stockade from zigzags with decreasing amplitude speaks most likely in favor of alternative variant, i.e. the dollar will continue its decline (see the Figures below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4907.gif
Practically horizontal pattern of the last week may be interpreted in the form of incomplete correction iv of (a) of or (x) of of the scenario v.3-alt. If it is so, the closing upward impulse or diagonal triangle may reach at least the 2.04 mark.
The wave picture on the smaller wave levels confirms this supposition (see the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4908.gif
An extended horizontal correction may be forming (refer to the tables 3-1 and 3-2 in my book). If the supposition is true in the near term the preferred price movement is only upward.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of the JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4909.gif
Admittedly in the context of the scenario v.2 for the JPY a downward impulse C is forming, and at the present time the correctional wave of C is forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of the CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 10 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4910.gif
Probably the wave (y) of has started already, but the price fails to break out of the consolidation area 1.20-1.21, giving the possibility to interpret differently this section of the chart (see the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28014_4911.gif
As long as there is no confirmation of the wave ending, there is always a possibility of its development.
Taking into consideration the expected trend direction for other European currencies this scenario at the moment is the most probable.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 5, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
The pairs under consideration are still in the quite narrow price range. Though suppositions that the US dollar may start falling begin to confirm (see Daily-050907).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4929.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Zigzags keep forming an extended correction confirming my yesterday's supposition (see Daily-050907). It is not so important what pattern will form in the long run. The most important thing is what place in the pattern of the higher degree it takes (see the text at table 3-2 of my bookand the next chart).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4930.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
If the supposition about forming of the horizontal extended correction is confirmed further uptrend, which will finish wave , should be expected after its completion.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4931.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
The pound practically replicates the euro’s moves. Elementary corrections keep forming an extended correction confirming my yesterday's supposition (see Daily-050907). It is not so important what pattern will form in the long run. The most important thing is what place in the pattern of the higher degree it takes (see the text at table 3-2 of my bookand the next chart).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4932.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
If the supposition about forming of the horizontal extended correction is confirmed further uptrend, which will finish wave , should be expected after its completion.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4933.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
Admittedly in the context of scenario v.2 for JPY a downward impulse C is forming, and at the present time corrective wave of C is forming. I can hardly say what shape it will take though judging by uncertainty of the current movement we are in wave (b) of .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4934.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 2.
According to a possible variant of the wave counting downward local trend of wave (b) of may continue.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4935.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt2.
Price still continues its corrective movement within 1.20-1.21 channel. It gives rise to a variety of the marking variants and does not allow a scenario to be chosen (see the next charts).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4936.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt2.
Wave (x) of may be assuming a more complicated shape than it was expected.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28022_4937.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Though downward wave of X may keep forming.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 6, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Local horizontal correction, which trapped the currencies within quite a narrow price range, is almost completed. Suppositions that USD may weaken soon are confirmed. Though the size of this movement may be different. Two main variants of this trend are considered here.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4955.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Zigzags keep forming an extended correction. It is not so important what pattern will form in the long run. The most important thing is what place in the pattern of the higher degree it takes (see the text at table 3-2 of my bookand the next chart).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4956.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
If the supposed triangle (Picture 1) is an opposite corrective wave then it is most probable that after its completion a local uptrend will continue in the shape of the double zigzag, completing wave .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4957.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
If the supposed triangle (Picture 1) is an active final wave of the global correction then after its completion a global uptrend will keep forming in the shape of the double zigzag Z of (B) Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction].
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4958.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
The pound practically replicates the euro’s moves. Elementary corrections keep forming an extended correction. It is not so important what pattern will form in the long run. The most important thing is what place in the pattern of the higher degree it takes (see the text at table 3-2 of my bookand the next chart).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4959.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
If the supposed skewed triangle (Picture 4) is an opposite corrective wave then it is most probable that after its completion a local uptrend will continue in the shape of the double zigzag, completing wave .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4960.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
If the supposed skewed triangle (Picture 4) is an active final wave of the global correction then after its completion a global uptrend will keep forming in the shape of the double zigzag Z of (B) Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction].
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4961.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 2.
It is quite possible that from the mid of August JPY has been forming a horizontal triangle.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4962.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
If the supposition is correct this triangle may be the fourth wave (iv) of impulse . In this case after completion of the horizontal correction downtrend should be expected to continue in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, completing impulse .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4963.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
According to the wave picture the fourth wave of C may be forming and expected price fall may be more significant than in case of the scenario shown in Picture 8.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 10 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4964.gif
Figure 10. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Price still continues its corrective movement within 1.20-1.21 channel. It gives rise to a variety of the marking variants. According to one of them a horizontal extended correction may form, e.g. a triangle. It is not so important what pattern will form in the long run. The most important thing is what place in the pattern of the higher degree it takes (see the text at table 3-2 of my bookand the next chart).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4965.gif
Figure 11. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
If the supposed triangle (Picture 10) is an opposite corrective wave then it is most probable that after its completion a local downtrend will continue in the shape of the (double) zigzag, completing wave .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28034_4966.gif
Figure 12. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt2.
If the supposed triangle (Picture 10) is an active final wave of the global correction then after its completion a global downtrend will keep forming in the shape of the double zigzag Y of (B) Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction].
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 7, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Taking into consideration the latest changes of the wave pictures we may suppose that USD local weakening, which is the last but one wave of the current half-a-year correction for the European currencies, is forming (see Daily-070907).
Those traders who have opened positions against the dollar last week (see Daily-050907), may close them in the short-term perspective and open positions in favor of the dollar or take some profit intending to accumulate positions in the mid-term plan.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4987.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Zigzags keep forming an extended correction. Supposedly, this is an expanding horizontal triangle. The final (double) zigzag e of (x) should form for it to complete.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4988.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Once the expanding triangle completes local uptrend should continue in the shape of the zigzag, finishing wave . Projections of wave ending should be better built once the triangle completes.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4989.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
The survey picture of the supposed half-a-year extended correction XX may look as it is shown in the picture.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4990.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
The pound practically replicates the euro’s moves. Zigzags keep forming an extended correction. Supposedly, this is a skewed triangle. The final (double) zigzag e of (x) should form for it to complete.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4991.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Once the skewed triangle completes local uptrend should continue in the shape of the zigzag, finishing wave . Projections of wave ending should be better built once the triangle completes.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4992.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
The survey picture of the supposed half-a-year extended correction XX may look as it is shown in the picture.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4993.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 2.
Due to the fact that the price has left the supposed horizontal triangle we may suppose that either a downward diagonal triangle (v) of is forming or wave (iv) of continues. The first variant seems to be more preferable for me as it coincides with the current scenarios of the European currencies.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4994.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
The so called Elliott's double retracement (see picture 2-8 of my book) will complete the ending of the supposed diagonal triangle (v) of .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4995.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
The survey picture of the supposed wave of C may look as it is shown in the picture.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 10 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4996.gif
Figure 10. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Due to the fact that the price has left the horizontal channel we may suppose that either a downward diagonal triangle is forming as the final leg of the zigzag (see the next charts) or the correction continues as a part of wave . The first variant seems to be more preferable for me as it coincides with the current scenarios of the European currencies.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4997.gif
Figure 11. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Supposedly, zigzag (y) of is almost completed with approximately equal legs. If the supposition is correct once wave of c completes local downtrend should keep forming in the shape of the (double) zigzag finishing diagonal triangle c of (y) of .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/28055_4998.gif
Figure 12. Wave counting on the daily chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
The survey picture of the supposed a-year-and-a-half extended correction X in the shape of the skewed triangle is given in article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction. In Figure 12 only its supposed wave in the shape of the double zigzag is given.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 10, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
The supposition, mentioned in Daily-100907, describes possible nearest perspective of the pairs under consideration. The only thing we should do is to follow it expecting the current scenario to be either confirmed or cancelled.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5016.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Once the supposed expanding triangle completes local uptrend should be expected to continue in the shape of the zigzag, completing wave . Projections of wave ending should be better built once the triangle completes.
Impetuous and narrow wave d of (x) in the shape of the zigzag of this counting makes me uneasy. It may turn out to be an impulse, which makes me keep in hand some alternate scenarios.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5017.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposedly an extended horizontal correction is forming in the shape of the expanding triangle. The final (double) zigzag e of (x) should form for it to complete.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5018.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Once the skewed triangle completes local uptrend should be expected to continue in the shape of the zigzag, completing wave . Projections of wave ending should be better built once the triangle completes.
The last zigzag d of (x) may become an impulse, which makes me keep in hand some alternate scenarios.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5019.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposedly an extended horizontal correction is forming in the shape of the skewed triangle. The final (double) zigzag e of (x) should form for it to complete.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5020.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
Supposedly, the final wave (v) of impulse is forming in the shape of the diagonal triangle. The so called Elliott's double retracement (see picture 2-8 of my book) will complete the diagonal triangle.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5021.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 2.
According to the wave structure on the smaller wave degrees downward diagonal triangle (v) of may be forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5022.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Supposedly, zigzag (y) of is almost completed with approximately equal legs. If the supposition is correct, once wave of c completes local downtrend should be expected to continue in the shape of the (double) zigzag, completing diagonal triangle c of (y) of .
Impetuous and narrow wave of c of (y) of this counting makes me uneasy. Moreover, the whole horizontal correction, which has been forming from the mid of July, may be treated as a single alternate correction.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28072_5023.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
According to the wave structure on the smaller wave degrees downward diagonal triangle may be forming.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 11, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
On the whole, expectations remain the same (see daily charts in Daily-100907). Though we can look at the current marking from a bit different point of view due to EUR steady rise.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28082_5042.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Yesterday's expectations were confirmed. Falling headily the price reached the historical maximum of the euro. Supposedly, ending of wave of skewed triangle XX starts forming. We should wait for it to be confirmed.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28082_5043.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
The euro rise pulled GBP. May be the ending of wave of the running triangle XX starts forming. Let's wait for it to be confirmed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28082_5044.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
Supposedly, the final wave (v) of impulse is forming in the shape of the diagonal triangle. The so-called Elliot's double retracement will complete the ending of the diagonal triangle (see picture 2-8 of my book).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28082_5045.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate scenario of variant 3-alt2.
Supposedly, zigzag (y) of is almost completed with approximately equal legs. If the supposition is correct, once wave of c completes, local downtrend should be expected to continue in the shape of the (double) zigzag, completing diagonal triangle c of (y) of .
Narrow and impetuous wave of c of (y) worries me in this marking. Moreover, the whole horizontal correction, forming from the mid of July, may be treated as a single alternate correction.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 12, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
On the whole, expectations remain the same (see daily charts in Daily-100907). Though we can look at the current marking from a bit different point of view due to EUR steady rise.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5077.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Rising headily the price reaches new historical maximums. Supposedly, ending of wave of skewed triangle XX is forming. We should wait for it to be confirmed.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5078.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Seven one-rank upward waves from the beginning of September may be either a completed correction or an incomplete impulse. Taking into consideration an impetuous rise and a narrow trend channel the second variant is more logic. Then several final waves should form for impulse (c) of to complete.
In this case wave may be presented in the shape of a simple zigzag with almost equal legs, which followed the alternation guidelines for zigzags (see page 140 of my book).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5079.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
The euro rise pulled GBP. Supposedly, the ending of wave of the running triangle XX is forming. Let's wait for it to be confirmed.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5080.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Forming of diagonal triangle (c) of zigzag may be almost completed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5081.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
Supposedly, the final wave (v) of impulse is forming in the shape of the diagonal triangle. The so-called Elliot's double retracement will complete the ending of the diagonal triangle (see picture 2-8 of my book).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5082.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 2.
One of possible variants of this area marking is given in the chart.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5083.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Because of the impetuous fall of CHF we should look for more appropriate variants of marking. The ending of wave of skewed triangle X may be forming.
In this case wave (y) of may be depicted as a simple zigzag with correct proportions, which followed alternation guidelines for zigzags (see page 140 of my book).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28105_5084.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Seven one-rank downward waves from the beginning of September may be either a completed correction or an incomplete impulse. Taking into consideration an impetuous fall and a narrow trend channel the second variant is more logic.
Then several final waves should form for impulse c of (y) of to complete.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 13, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
The wave ending, formed yesterday by the pairs under consideration, may be the ending of the last but one wave of the many-month correction. Of course, this supposition should be confirmed.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5099.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
According to the wave picture, wave may be completed or will complete in the nearest future.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5100.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposed wave is a simple zigzag with almost equal legs which followed alternation guidelines for zigzags (see page 140 of my book).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5101.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposedly, wave of the skewed triangle XX is completed. Let's wait for it to be confirmed.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5102.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
According to the wave picture, wave may be completed or will complete in the nearest future.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5103.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposed wave is a simple zigzag with correct proportions.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5104.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposedly, wave of the running triangle XX is completed. Let's wait for it to be confirmed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5105.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 2.
According to the wave picture, wave iv of (v) of may be completed or will complete in the nearest future.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5106.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
Supposedly, final wave (v) of impulse is forming in the shape of the diagonal triangle. The ending of the diagonal triangle will be completed by the so-called Elliott's double retracement (see picture 2-8 of my book).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5107.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
According to the wave picture, wave may be completed or will complete in the nearest future.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5108.gif
Figure 10. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Supposed wave is a simple zigzag with almost equal legs which followed alternation guidelines for zigzags (see page 140 of my book).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28116_5109.gif
Figure 11. Wave counting on the daily chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Supposedly, wave of the skewed triangle X is completed (see article Let's analyze zigzag wave construction). Let's wait for it to be confirmed.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 14, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
Supposedly, the last but one wave of the many-month correction of the European currencies is completed. Though this supposition should be confirmed.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5134.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
According to the wave picture on smaller wave-degrees, wave may be completed or will complete in the nearest future.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5135.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposed wave is a simple zigzag with almost equal legs which followed alternation guidelines for zigzags (see page 140 of my book). This supposition should be confirmed.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5136.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposedly, wave is completed, final wave of the running triangle XX is forming (see the next chart).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5137.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposed wave is a simple zigzag with correct proportions. Though according to the alternate variant wave is not completed yet.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5138.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 2.
According to the wave picture on smaller time-frames wave iv of (v) of may complete in the nearest future.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5139.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
Once wave iv of (v) completes diagonal triangle (v) of impulse may be expected to complete. The ending of the diagonal triangle will be completed with the so-called Elliott's double retracement (see picture 2-8 of my book).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5140.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
According to the wave picture on smaller time-frames wave may be completed or will complete in the nearest future. Supposedly, uptrend may start with a wedge or a sequence of waves 1-2, 1-2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28140_5141.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Supposed wave may be a simple zigzag with correct proportions which followed alternation guidelines for zigzags (see page 140 of my book). Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 17, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Some recent uncertainty of the market participants in respect of the dollar may be triggered by expectations of a new interest rate of the US FRS (22:15 Moscow time).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28157_5165.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposed wave of skewed triangle XX is a simple zigzag with almost equal legs. This supposition should be confirmed. According to the wave picture on smaller time-frames, wave may be completed or will complete in the nearest future.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and Monthly-0907. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28157_5166.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
Supposed wave of skewed triangle XX is a simple zigzag with correct proportions. Supposedly, the final wave of this triangle is forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28157_5167.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
Once wave iv of (v) completes diagonal triangle (v) of impulse may be expected to complete. According to the wave picture on smaller time-frames wave iv of (v) of may complete in the nearest future.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -07(2) and Monthly -0907. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/6/28157_5168.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.
Supposed wave (y) of may be a simple zigzag with correct proportions. According to the wave picture on smaller time-frames wave may be completed or will complete in the nearest future.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
[*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)[*]Nearest Projections of GBP/JPY [*]CAD Possible Weakening till the Mid of 2009 (USD/CAD) [*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY[*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction [*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Wave Analysis for September 2007[*]Wave analysis [*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA Forecasts
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 18, 2007 When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory