AUD/USD 120min and JPY/USD 30min charts on Feb 25, 2008.
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JPY/USD 60MIN, AUD/USD 60MIN, CHF/USD 30MIN, CAD/USD 60MIN CHARTS ON March 03, 2008
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MAR 04, 2008
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MAR 06, 2008
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Mar 10, 2008
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EUR/USD 240min on MAR 11, 2008
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Mar 12, 2008
CHF/USD 120min and GBP/USD 120min
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Mar 13, 2008
AUD/USD 60min
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Mar 14, 2008
AUD/USD 60min
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April 17, 2008
Aud/usd 120min, Gbp/usd 60min, and Chf/usd 30min charts.
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April 22, 2008
Aud/usd 120min chart.
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May 05, 2008
AUD/USD 60min chart.
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April 25, 2008
EUR/USD 30min, CHF/USD 30min, GBP/USD 30min and JPY/USD daily charts
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May 05, 2008
AUD/USD 30min, JPY/USD 90min charts.
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May 15, 2008
AUD/USD 30min, JPY/USD 90min charts.
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May 20, 2008
AUD/USD 60min chart.
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May 22, 2008
AUD/USD 60min, JPY/USD 90min, EUR/USD 60min and GBP/USD 120min charts.
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Daily Technical Outlook On Eur/usd
Updating time : 05/02/2008 00:05 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4828...Yesterday was a relative quiet day for the single
currency after Friday's 'volatile' moves (euro spiked to its highest since Nov
23 at 1.4956 b4 falling sharply 1.4786 following the release of the U.S. jobs
report) n price staged a rebound fm 1.4793 (Asian low) to 1.4850 b4 easing n
then moving sideways for the rest of the day.
Friday's selloff fm 1.4956 signals recent upmove has formed a temp. top n
despite the nr term consolidation abv 1.4786/93, reckon 1.4871 (50% r of 1.4956-
1.4786) wud cap upside n yield decline, below said sup wud bring retracement
twd 1.4730/37, being min. 38.2% r of 1.4365-1.4956 n Jan 29 low, however, reckon
1.4710 (prev. minor res) shud limit weakness.
Therefore, whilst trading euro fm short side is recommended today, readers
shud be prudent n take profit on next decline (note that the ECB is expected to
keep rates unchanged on Thursday). Abv 1.4890 wud risk stronger gain to 1.4915
but only a breach of 1.4956/1.4968 (Friday's top n '07 record high resp) wud
signal MT uptrend has 'finally' resumed...
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Today, selling on recovery is favoured but readers should be prudent n take profit on next decline (note that the ECB and BOE interest rate decisions are due out tom). Above 1.9715/18 (minor res n 61.8% r of 1.9788-1.9605) would signal low is in place n risk retrace. to 1.9764 but 1.9825 (prev. sup) should hold...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
USD/JPY - 106.45...The greenback remained under pressure y'day on active cross buying in the Japanese currency (unwinding of carry trades due to risk aversion casued by slumps in Nikkei & Hang Seng) n price hit an intra-day low of 106.18 b4 staging a rebound to 106.80 after the close of European markets.
Dlr's retreat fm o/n NY high at 106.80 indicates consolidation with down-side bias remains for the decline fm 10.75 (Tuesday's high) to extend to 106.00 n possibly twds 105.71/76 sup area, however, as price is expected to stay inside the established range of 104.95-107.90, reckon previous low at 104.95 (Jan '08) shud remain intact n yield further 'choppy' sideways trading. Therefore, selling dlr on intra-day recovery is favoured but readers shud not get over-bearish once dlr falls below the 106.00 lvl.
Abv 107.13/15 (minor res n 61.8% r of 107.75-106.18, adjust latter lvl if necessary) wud abort this near term bearish scenario n risk stronger gain to 107.40 but only abv 107.90 wud signal 'upside break' of 104.95-107.90 has taken place, yield correction of MT decline to 108.20/30...
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Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 11/02/2008 00:05 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4524...Despite the early rise to 1.4956 (Feb 1 high), euro fell sharply last week in line dlr's broad-based rally (on concerns that the eurozone wud be negatively affected by the U.S. economic woes n hence lead to a rate cut in the future by the ECB) n also cross unwinding vs gbp n chf, with price declining to its lowest since January 22 at 1.4440 on Thursday b4 staging a recovery.
Looking at the daily chart, euro continues to 'gyrate' inside the broad established range of 1.4310-1.4968 n below 1.4440 wud extend weakness twd 1.4365 but breach of key sup at 1.4310 is needed to confirm downside break has finally taken place n bring correction MT uptrend to 1.4164/65 (50% r of 1.3360-1.4968 n 38.2% r of 1.2865-1.4968) later this month. On the upside, abv 1.4672 wud bring correction of the fall fm 1.4956 to 1.4759 (61.8% r of 1.4956-1.4440) but only breach of 1.4850/55 wud yield re-test of 1.4956/68 res area.
Today, as long as 1.4548 holds, trading fm short side in anticipation of another fall is favoured. Abv 1.4548/50 risks retrace. twds 1.4592 (prev. sup)..
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Daily Technical Outlook On EUR/USD
Updating time : 12/02/2008 00:03 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4510...The single currency initially rose to 1.4578 y'day b4 falling to 1.4482 on the back of cross selling vs yen n sterling (on increased
speculation that the ECB wud cut interest rates later this year), however, price recovered in N.Y. afternoon on carry trade demand in tandem with the rebound in U.S. stocks.
Although y'day's retreat fm 1.4578 suggests correction fm last Thursday's low at 1.4440 has ended, a firm break of 1.4482 is needed to bring re-test of said sup n a breach there wud confirm the decline fm 1.4956 has resumed, yield further weakness twds 1.4400, however, price is expected to remain inside the broad established range of 1.4310-1.4968 n sup at 1.4365 shud remain intact.
On the upside, abv y'day's high at 1.4578 wud yield another corrective rise to 1.4592 (prev. sup) n then twds 1.4637 (min. 38.2% r of 1.4956-1.4440) but res at 1.4672 shud remain intact (one can use such upmove as a selling opportunity as per our weekly outlook). We will stand aside for day trade but readers shud look out for any special daily updates...
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Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 13/02/2008 00:14 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4583...Although the single currency fell fm 1.4550 to 1.4496 in European morning y'day ahead of the release of eurozone n German ZEW index, euro then rose as the data turned out to be not as weak as market rumours suggested n price rallied to 1.4616 later in the day on the back of cross buying vs yen n chf (carry trade demand in line with the strg showing in U.S. stocks).
Y'day's rally abv 1.4578 (Monday's high) indicates the rise fm 1.4440 (Feb 8) to retrace the decline fm 1.4956 is likely to extend to 1.4637 (38.2% r of 1.4956-1.4440) n then twds 1.4672 after consolidation, however, hourly oscillators are likely to be in o/bot territory on such move n 1.4698 (50% r of 1.4956-1.4440) shud hold, yield retreat later.
Therefore, buying euro on dips in anticipation of one more rise is favoured but readers shud be prudent n take profit on next upmove. Below 1.4549/50 (38.2% r of 1.4440-1.4616 n prev. res) wud defer this near term bullish scenario but break of 1.4528 (50% r of 1.4440-1.4616) is needed to signal top is made n yield stronger pullback twds 1.4482 (Monday's low)...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
Updating time : 13/02/2008 23:44 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.15...Dlr rallied fm 106.99 to 108.38 y'day on active cross selling in yen on renewed carry trade demand n also stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data which calmed fears of a U.S. recession. Y'day's breach of 107.90 signals breakout of the broad range fm 104.95-107.90 has finally taken place n the erratic upmove fm 104.95 to retrace MT downtrend shud extend to 108.66 (min. 38.2% r of the intermediate fall fm 114.66-104.95 n equality proj. of 104.95-107.90 fm 105.71) n then twd 108.95/109.06 (1.618 times ext. of 106.33-107.54 fm 106.99 n present lvl of the 55-day ema), however, hourly oscillators are likely to be in o/bot territory on such move n risk has increased for a pullback later today or tom.
Therefore, buying on dips is favoured but readers shud be prudent n take profit on next rise. Below 107.69 (50% r of 106.99-108.38, adjust latter lvl if necessary) wud signal a temporary top has been formed y'day n yield correction to 107.36 (50% r of 106.33-108.38) n then twd 106.99 (y'day's low) b4 prospect of a rebound...
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Daily Technical Outlook On USD/CHF
Updating time : 15/02/2008 00:46 GMT
USD/CHF - 1.0975...Dollar fell sharply y'day after failing to penetrate
Wednesday's high at 1.1108 as active cross buying in chf (unwinding of carry
trades) in the dovish testimony from Fed chief Bernanke, the bearish cross-over
of the 21-hr n 55-hr emas signals the upmove fm 1.0729 has formed a temp. top
at 1.1108 n correction to 1.0946 (Feb 11) n then twds 1.0902 (1.618 times ext.
of 1.1108-1.1007 fm 1.1065) cannot be ruled out, however, bullish convergences
on 15-min oscillators shud prevent steep fall below there n reckon 1.0864/74
(sup n 61.8% r of 1.0729-1.1108) wud limit downside, yield a rebound later today
or next week.
Therefore, we will not chase this move for day trade instead, stand
aside for now (readers should keep an eye out for any special daily updates).
Abv 1.1031/34 (50% r of 1.1108-1.0954 n prev. minor sup) would signal intra-day
low is made n bring rebound to 1.1065 (y'day's reaction high in U.S. session)
but break there is needed to signal correction fm 1.1108 has ended n yield
re-test of this res later...
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Daily Technical Outlook On USD/CHF
Updating time : 15/02/2008 00:46 GMT
USD/CHF - 1.0975...Dollar fell sharply y'day after failing to penetrate
Wednesday's high at 1.1108 as active cross buying in chf (unwinding of carry
trades) in the dovish testimony from Fed chief Bernanke, the bearish cross-over
of the 21-hr n 55-hr emas signals the upmove fm 1.0729 has formed a temp. top
at 1.1108 n correction to 1.0946 (Feb 11) n then twds 1.0902 (1.618 times ext.
of 1.1108-1.1007 fm 1.1065) cannot be ruled out, however, bullish convergences
on 15-min oscillators shud prevent steep fall below there n reckon 1.0864/74
(sup n 61.8% r of 1.0729-1.1108) wud limit downside, yield a rebound later today
or next week.
Therefore, we will not chase this move for day trade instead, stand
aside for now (readers should keep an eye out for any special daily updates).
Abv 1.1031/34 (50% r of 1.1108-1.0954 n prev. minor sup) would signal intra-day
low is made n bring rebound to 1.1065 (y'day's reaction high in U.S. session)
but break there is needed to signal correction fm 1.1108 has ended n yield
re-test of this res later...
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Weekly Technical Outlook On Eur/usd
Updating time : 18/02/2008 00:01 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4674...The euro rose last week to 1.4710 on the back of dlr's
weakness against other European currencies n also cross buying vs yen (carry
trade demand) n as the erratic upmove fm this month's low at 1.4440 has already
retraced over 50% of the decline fm 1.4956-1.4440 at 1.4698, consolidation with
upside bias remains for further gain twds dynamic res at 1.4759 (61.8% r of
1.4956-1.4440) later.
Looking at the daily chart, euro is now trading around the mid-point of
the broad established range of 1.4968-1.4310 n as the price action fm '07 record
high at 1.4968 is possibly developing into a triangle, only abv 1.4956 res wud
confirm upside break has taken place n bring resumption of MT uprtrend to the
'psychological' 1.5000 lvl 1st.
On the downside, below 1.4574 wud signal temp. top has been formed at
1.4710 n yield weakness to 1.4530, however, break of 1.4482 is needed to signal
the decline fm 1.4956 has resumed, bring re-test of 1.4440 n then 1.4400 but
pivotal sup at 1.4365 shud remain intact...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 19/02/2008 00:50 GMT
USD/CHF - 1.1020...Dlr moved sideways in Asia y'day b4 rallying in Europe as traders covered short positions entered last week n also active cross selling in chf, price hit an intra-day high of 1.1048 b4 retreating as U.S. markets were closed for the President's Day holiday.
Dlr's rebound fm 1.0886 (Friday's low) suggests the pullback fm last wk's top at 1.1108 has ended n as price is trading abv both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, upside bias remains for a re-test of said res but a break there is needed to confirm the upmove fm this month's record low at 1.0729 has resumed. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's rise fm 1.0729 is viewed as a correction of MT decline n abv 1.1108 wud extend gain to 1.1124 n then 1.1164, being 50% r of the intermediate fall fm 1.1598-1.0729.
Today, trading fm long side is favoured but readers shud be prudent n take profit on subsequent rise as anticipated o/bot readings on the hourly stochastics shud prevent strg move beyond 1.1124. Below 1.0966 (50% r of 1.0886-1.1048) wud prolong 'choppy' trading n risk pullback to 1.0910/20...
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Daily Technical Outlook On USD/CHF
Updating time : 20/02/2008 00:50 GMT
USD/CHF - 1.0945...The dlr fell sharply y'day to 1.0909 in part due to
cross unwinding in chf n the breach of 1.0930 signals erratic decline fm last
week's high at 1.1108 has resumed n re-test of prev. sup at 1.0886 (Feb 15 low)
wud be seen after consolidation.
Therefore, selling on intra-day recovery in anticipation of another fall
is recommended n below 1.0886 wud bring retracement of the rise fm this month's
record low at 1.0729 to 1.0864 n then 1.0826/40 (equality proj. of 1.1108-1.0886
fm 1.1048 n 70.7% r of 1.0729-1.1108), however, hourly oscillators are likely to
display o/sold readings on such fall n risk has increased for a rebound later.
Looking ahead, a daily close below 1.0864 sup is needed to indicate the
correction fm 1.0729 has ended, bring resumption of MT downtrend for re-test of
said low in late Feb/early March.
On the upside, abv 1.1012 (prev. minor sup) wud prolong 'choppy' trading
n risk gain twds 1.1048 (Monday's high) but break of latter res is needed for
another rise to 1.1108...
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Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 21/02/2008 00:13 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4718...Euro fell sharply to 1.4614 y'day (just 3 ticks abv Feb 18 low of 1.4611) on cross unwinding (comments fm a German politician that state-backed banks were in crisis also put pressure on the single currency) b4 rebounding strongly to 1.4720/25 on renewed carry trade demand on the back of the rise in U.S. stocks as well as release of Jan.'s dovish FOMC's minutes.
Although y'day's cross-inspired rally suggests the correction fm Tuesday's high at 1.4757 has ended n consolidation with upside bias is seen, a break abv said res is needed to confirm the recent upmove fm 1.4440 has resumed n yield further headway to 1.4786 (prev. sup), however, hourly stochastics are likely to display o/bot readings on such rise n reckon 1.4805/10 (70.7% r of 1.4956-1.4440 n 61.8% proj. of 1.4440-1.4757 fm 1.4614) shud limit gain, bring retreat later.
Below 1.4663/70 (prev. minor res n 50% r of 1.4614-1.4726) wud indicate further 'choppy' trading below aforesaid res at 1.4757 is in store n yield another fall to 1.4611/14, however, break there is needed to bring stronger correction of upmove fm 1.4440 to 1.4574 later...
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Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Updating time : 22/02/2008 00:47 GMT
USD/CHF - 1.0903...Despite y'day's rise fm 1.0963 to 1.1034 ahead of U.S.
opening, dlr turned south after the release of the U.S. Philadelphia Fed survey
which came in well below expectations n the greenback nose-dived to 1.0866
with active cross buying in chf also putting pressure on price.
Y'day's selloff below 1.0886 signals the erratic decline fm 1.1108 has
resumed n as this move is viewed as a retracement of the rise fm 1.0729, further
weakness to 1.0826 (equality proj. of 1.1108-1.0886 fm 1.1048) is envisaged
after consolidation but anticipated o/sold readings on hourly oscillators shud
prevent steep fall below 1.0801 (80.9% r of 1.0729-1.1108) n risk has increased
for a bounce later.
Looking ahead, breach of this month's record low at 1.0729 wud confirm MT
downtrend has 'finally' resumed n extend weakness to measured obj. at 1.0674
(50% proj. of 1.1598-1.0729 fm 1.1108).
On the upside, abv 1.0963 (prev. sup) wud indicate a temp. low has been
formed instead n risk correction to 1.10990/00 but 1.1034/48 res area wud hold..
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Weekly Technical Outlook On Eur/usd
Updating time : 25/02/2008 00:13 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4836...The single currency rose over 250 points fm 1.4611 to
1.4863 last week on dollar's broad-based weakness n also cross buying vs yen n
sterling as eur/jpy n eur/gbp hit one-month high (on speculation that the ECB
wud be less likely to cut rates).
Looking at the daily chart, although euro's upmove fm 1.4440 is likely to
extend marginally, a break abv 1.4956 is needed to signal an upside break of the
broad sideways consolidation fm 07' record high at 1.4968 has taken place (price
action fm there is possibly developing into a triangle) n bring resumption of MT
uptrend to the 'psychological' 1.5000 lvl 1st n then measured obj. at 1.5162
(50% proj. of 1.3264-1.4968 fm 1.4310) next month. Below 1.4702 wud signal afore
said rise has formed a top n bring correction to 1.4602/14 (61.8% r of 1.4440-
1.4863 n sup) but reckon 1.4530 shud remain intact.
Today, one more rise to 1.4880/85 cannot be ruled out but the 'prominent'
bearish divergences on hourly oscillators shud prevent strg further gain n bring
correction twds 1.4789/92 n then 1.4757 (prev. res)...
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Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Updating time : 26/02/2008 00:05 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4833...The single currency dipped to 1.4794 in European morning y'day b4 bouncing to 1.4845 (after failing to take out the stops around 1.4785/90) n despite a brief retreat due to the release of better-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data, cross buying esp vs yen n chf supported the pair n price moved back up to 1.4830/35.
Although price has continued to 'gyrate' inside the range of 1.4792-1.4863 n further sideways trading is in store in Asia, recent erratic upmove fm 1.4440 shud resume after consolidation n abv 1.4863 wud extend gain to 1.4880/85 but anticipated bearish divergences on hourly oscillators shud cap price below 1.4915/17 (res n 50% proj. of 1.4614-1.4863 fm 1.4792), yield correction later.
Today, adopting a flexible strategy of buying on dips for one more rise or selling on next upmove is favoured. Below 1.4789/92 brings retrace. to 1.4760/68 (prev. res n 38.2% r of 1.4614-1.4863) but 1.4702 shud hold n yield rebound.
On the bigger picture, only a breach of 1.4956 wud indicate 'upside break' of the MT broad consolidation fm 1.4968 ('07 record high) has occured, 1.5000...
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