Definitely
Definitely in trouble, the pound has already sliced through key long-term support levels like a hot knife through peanut butter. On a weekly basis the pound is currently testing support that extends all the way back to the beginning of 2005. Further troubles in the U.K. economy will keep selling pressure on the pound until it returns to a more fair value versus the buck.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11332&stc=1&d=1202842347 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11333&stc=1&d=1202842360 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11334&stc=1&d=1202842374
The above chart of euro futures shows price and volume. I’ve circled notable price bars and corresponding volume bars. When the volume on a particular day is high you’ve got lots of activity. These particular bars tell me that when traders have been most active in the last two months the bias has been towards selling the euro. You can see that the relatively high levels of volume correspond to considerable sell-offs or significant lows.
You’ll also notice that the euro seems to be holding above the 14300 -14400 range. At this point we want to see high volume on a break below this level to confirm a downtrend. Once that happens, I’m sure you’ll love us!
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11390&stc=1&d=1202994223 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11391&stc=1&d=1202994230
We are warming to the idea that it might be lights out for gold for a while; but then again, only if the step-sister of currencies is invited to the dance. If all things China and all things commodities and all things risk can’t muster the force to drive gold to a new all-time high, it could likely mean that everyone who wants to own gold owns it.
Disclaimer: Keep in mind when you consider our rather agnostic gold view that we only missed about $200 or the last $200 rally in prices.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11552&stc=1&d=1203516909 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11553&stc=1&d=1203516915
We are warming to the idea that it might be lights out for gold for a while; but then again, only if the step-sister of currencies is invited to the dance. If all things China and all things commodities and all things risk can’t muster the force to drive gold to a new all-time high, it could likely mean that everyone who wants to own gold owns it.
Disclaimer: Keep in mind when you consider our rather agnostic gold view that we only missed about $200 or the last $200 rally in prices.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11555&stc=1&d=1203517134 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11556&stc=1&d=1203517152
There seems to be little disagreement on the long-term outlook for the pound. British pound sentiment has taken on an overwhelmingly bearish feel. Maybe it actually will take on the role of the U.S. dollar for all of 2008.
And unless you can change direction like John Kerry, you probably haven’t had much fun trying to trade the Canadian dollar lately. Despite surging commodity prices – gold and oil, particularly – and relatively stable Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Canadian dollar hasn’t done much but make a lot of noise.
Those are some serious intra-day whipsaws that you can only hope to steer clear of.
Good luck out there.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11593&stc=1&d=1203603982 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11594&stc=1&d=1203603991 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11595&stc=1&d=1203604004
Hmmm…So many questions and so few crystal balls! The St. Kitts beach beacons once again.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11689&stc=1&d=1203945040 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11690&stc=1&d=1203945045
Our policymakers seem to have made it clear they prefer inflation to deflation—always politically more palatable, with the huge caveat that said inflation is “controlled.” And as we’ve said before, controlling Mr. Market, in a world where massive amounts of capital can cross boarders in a keystroke, makes herding cats look like kindergarten.
Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11770&stc=1&d=1204116442
We may see a pullback to end the week, but the damage is done. If traders keep ganging up on the buck, the euro now has uncharted territory to roam freely.
John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan CapitalAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11833&stc=1&d=1204213020
The ECB will most likely stay put on interest rates as well. But there’s no telling where these currencies might finish when the day ends. Good luck navigating these markets today and tomorrow.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12146&stc=1&d=1204813733
It is jobs Friday; that marvelous day when anything can and will happen in the markets.
Stay tuned. Take care. And enjoy your weekend.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12202&stc=1&d=1204899089
As of yesterday’s close, technical analysis showed the S&P 500 sitting right near huge chart support corresponding to its January lows. Had the S&P 500 dropped below this level it could have very easily collapsed under a thunderclap of selling pressure.
But never fear, the central banks are here; and just in the nick of time!Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12348&stc=1&d=1205247291
Does our monthly Elliott Wave chart of the US $ Index make sense with a target of 6750; we are beginning to believe it looks too optimistic for dollar bulls?
Who is John Galt?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12376&stc=1&d=1205325964 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12377&stc=1&d=1205325971 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12378&stc=1&d=1205325978
And one more thing, correlations have been changing lately. Now we see the dollar moving in line with the stock market. And we do know the dollar is a bit oversold.
<<chart2>>Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12528&stc=1&d=1205845218 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12529&stc=1&d=1205845224
So, yesterday afternoon things were looking good for a two-day dollar rally. (Reminds me of the baseball player who told his coach he was in the midst of a hitting streak. His last two times at the plate he was hit by a pitch and had a foul tip.) Both stocks and dollar are bidding lower. Is the bloom off the Fed rose already?
The path of the dollar over the near-term seems very much tied to the boys on the Street. Let’s hope for at least a foul tip today; that is if you decided to peck at yesterday’s move.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12559&stc=1&d=1205932790
Above is a cross-rate chart of Australian dollar compared to the Japanese yen. It shows the Aussie peaked at around 108 against the yen back in October 2007 and has been losing ground since, now trading near 91. Maybe it’s a decent risk/reward setup. Key word there is, as usual, “maybe.”Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12767&stc=1&d=1206536658 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12768&stc=1&d=1206536674
<<chart3>>
Surprising price action in these markets of late is becoming a 24-hour affair!Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12825&stc=1&d=1206625954 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12826&stc=1&d=1206625969 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12827&stc=1&d=1206625976
We are still liking AUDJPY long, but hoping the JPY side of the fence will get into gear soon….
<<chart8>>Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12863&stc=1&d=1206710631 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12864&stc=1&d=1206710639 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12865&stc=1&d=1206710648 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12866&stc=1&d=1206710655 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12867&stc=1&d=1206710663
continuedAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12868&stc=1&d=1206710707 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12869&stc=1&d=1206710720 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12870&stc=1&d=1206710733
<<chart2>>
Of course if this proves wrong, the next extension low for the dollar index is near 6800. But if this proves right, a US$ index move to 7800 (or +7.8% from current levels) equates to a euro-$ of around 14400. Now that would be quite a head fake indeed!Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12980&stc=1&d=1207142332 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12981&stc=1&d=1207142378
5/09/08 Bank Flow Weekly Wrap Up
USDCHF Update
As you can see in chart below, the level posted earlier on the USDCHF at the 1.0387 area has held and the pair has now moved to our intraday target levels and beyond for a minimum of 40 pips. If you continue to hold this trade, be sure to lock in profit to avoid margin risk and market exposure over the weekend.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/CHF050908.jpg
GBPUSD
As we begin a new week new Bank Flow levels begin to emerge. The first level I would like to post this week is on the GBPUSD at the 1.9723 to 1.9735 area for sells. As seen in the chart below this area should provide some resistance for an intraday target of 40 -80 pips. For those traders that can afford to hold a trade longer I might suggest to take partial profit for 40 pips on a portion of the trade and lock in for a further target back down towards the 1.9630 area.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/GBP051208.jpg
/13/08 Bank Flow Update USDCAD
Yesterdays posted level on the CAD of the 1.0019 area, give or take 5 to 10 pips, for buys has paid out nicely. The low yesterday was around 1.0023 and made a recovery back to the 1.0090’s. This combo can be a tricky pair to trade and congratulations on those that took advantage of this level and profited the 40 pip intraday target. If you continue to hold this trade I would suggest locking in profit to protect your margin.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/CAD051308.jpg
5/14/08 Bank Flow Update
USDCAD
At the time of this post .9970 seems to be holding this pair from a push lower. If we get a break of .9970 the next level I will be looking to add buys is around the .9920 area. As with all postings on this combo I will stress caution and measured risk as it tends to spike through a level very rapidly.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/CAD051408.jpg
5/16/08 Bank Flow Weekly Wrap Up
USDCAD
The CAD has made a nice effort to make it down to my previously posted level at the .9920 area. While .9970 gave it a tough battle for a while it was able to squeeze lower to .9940 missing the lower buy area by 20 pips. The .9920 area still remains valid but I will be cautious with new buys before the weekend.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/CAD051608.jpg
GBPUSD
As in the previous post the buy zone for the GBP was 1.9370 to 1.9425. Several attempts at this area have provided good intraday bounces for 40 pips, 80 pips and the last bounce going all the way to 1.9597 3 pips from my target at 1.9600. Traders that held from buys around the 1.9378 area were able to capture a 200 pip move on this pair this week.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/GBP051608.jpg
5/20/08 Bank Flow Update
I don’t have any specific new buy or sell levels this week yet. However I wanted to pass along some ranges to watch.
On the AUDUSD I continue to look for sells around the .9600 area. I would like to be able to find the top on this pair and hold for a run down to .9000’s.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/AUD052008.jpg
Both the EURUSD and USDCHF seem to be ranging at the moment. My focus will be to look for levels for sells on the EURUSD and buys on the USDCHF.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/CHF052008.jpg
The EURJPY has found strong resistance between 163.00 and 163.25. I am hoping to find a top on this combo for a move back to the 160’s.
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/images/EURJPY052008.jpg
Ascending Broadening Formation on EUR/USD. Watch for a partial rise
by Ryan Teeples
Like everyone else, I've been watching the EUR/USD lately wondering what to do with it. Today I noticed an interesting pattern that makes for a great lesson on a lesser-known and more uncommon bearish pattern, and it will be interesting to see if it plays out by the book.
In this case, the book is Thomas Bulkowski's "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns," a must have resource for any technical trader.
The pattern I speak of emerging on the EUR/USD (below) is called a "right-angled and ascending broadening formation." It's a bearish pattern that occurs when a pair has a rising resistance level and a horizontal support level. The price must hit the top at least twice, and the bottom at least twice. The EUR completed that a couple days ago. But that's not the entire pattern yet.
http://www.pfxglobal.com/images/stories/EUR-USD-5-6.png
Next, you have notice to watch for a "partial rise." After the bounce off support in this pattern, the price will sometimes rise partially, then take a down-turn and break through the horizontal resistance level. According to Bulkowski's research, once it broke resistance, it declined an average of 18%. (Here's a link to an excerpt from Bulkowski from Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine: http://www.traders.com/Documentation...wski/bulk.html)
So you look for confirmation at the point the pair pushes through the support level, and once it does, the odds are it will continue to decline for a while, on average, about 18%. And as of a couple days ago, we are looking for a possible partial rise, and a quick push through support on the EUR/USD. But remember, if we don't get the downturn to support after a partial rise, the pattern doesn't indicate bearishness.
Now, I'm not advising anyone to trade this pattern on my advice, or in the short-term at all, actually. I'm merely offering this as a technical indication that there may be bearish movement on the EUR/USD, and a break from the current channel. And certainly we get the same indication from a breakthrough on the fib study, but it's just a nice confirmation on our fib analysis, and vice versa, and kind of fun.
Before I trade anything (I'm a long-term trader) I wait for a new trend to emerge, which may be a while on this pair. But that doesn't mean I don't keep tabs on it in the mean time.
Here's an example of an ascending broadening formation and partial rise that played out on the SPX late last year:
http://www.pfxglobal.com/images/Ryan/SPXPartialRise.png
By the way, for more analysis on the EUR/USD, check out our daily and weekly charts here:
http://www.pfxglobal.com/eur-usd/eur...g-2.html#step3
__________________
*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on this site
Good Hunting!
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Founder
Second Skies LLC
2ndSkies.comAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11401&stc=1&d=1202999497 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11402&stc=1&d=1202999510 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11403&stc=1&d=1202999521
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Founder
Second Skies LLC
& the 2S Sniper System
2ndSkies.comAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12607&stc=1&d=1206018802
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Founder
Second Skies LLC
2ndSkies.com
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=12834&stc=1&d=1206638257
Other notables;
-Watch AUD up at 95handle for potential reversal or strong break and move towards 99fig
-EURUSD has bounced nicely off of 38.2 fib at 1.54handle and is wanting to retest the 20EMA at 1.5640 but 20EMA is pointing downward and we have our first breach in over 2 months so bears are in control for the short term
-EURGBP also below 20EMA for first time in about 3mos so watch for retest for potential sell
-GBPAUD also under further pressure and upside break for AUDUSD above 95 (strong sustained break) suggests this pair will head further downward towards 2bucks which it has not approached since 97 and a great downside target.
That is all for now. Good Hunting!Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14303&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1210077577
May 2nd
BOTTOM LINE ::: The Dollar looks healthy….for now!
In the previous update I brought to your attention that completion of a diagonal triangle / falling wedge going into the 71.05 low invited at a cautiously bullish stance against that low in the USDollar Index. The greenback has been able to capitalize on that setup and currently inches higher in what should be the initial leg up of a multi-month trading range meant to consolidate the 10 months of sharp losses that had passed since the 83.01 Mid June 2007 highs.
The immediate uptrend is currently defended against 72.66 / 73.29 supports. We count on those levels to hold for now as this little rally continues into the next objectives @ 74.06-45-92. Selling under 72.66 / 73.29 on the other hand will temporarily shift focus lower for a retest of 72.15 / 71.57 before anything else happens. Even if the Dollar is unable to sustain the immediate uptrend the most bears can hope for at this point in time is a more severe retest of the 71.10-72.10 area before a more vigorous rally attempt takes place. In all fairness you should know that the wave pattern and the accompanying indicators hint that a retest of the 71-72 area will not take place before we move closer to / deeper within the 74.45-92 range, but then again we project the larger structure as being a 4th wave situation that is typically about wasting everybody’s money in time consuming trading range environments. At some point this big range should – and likely will – become rather choppy,,,,,,,
I wish you all a great week-end,,,,,,,,,,,
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=14281&stc=1&d=1210004267
Eur/usd Feb 14, 2008
EUR/USD On April 22nd, 2006 we recommended a buy position at $1.2638, price closed higher after testing and retesting the support (the small blue dots below the bars.) eASCTrend uses colors to indicate market directions; blue for buy and red for sell. The color of the bars would be all green without using eASCTrend. Currently the price moved up, we suggest that you move your stop up to 1.4043. eASCTrend provides timely dynamic stop and exit points. We will keep you informed.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11415&stc=1&d=1203018926
Gbp/usd Feb 21, 2008
GBP/USD AbleTrend uses colors to indicate market directions; blue for buy and red for sell. The color of the bars would be all green without using AbleTrend. AbleTrend provides timely dynamic stop and exit points. We will keep you informed.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=11618&stc=1&d=1203622077