Pro Commentary Lite … 20th February 2008 … USDCAD02 20th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.0151
Resistance:1.01751.02121.02361.0258Support:1.01451.01181.00751.0047http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CAD60mFeb20.gif
Bias:Cautiously, while 1.0118-34 supports look for further gains to 1.0236 – max 1.0258-85Daily Bullish:Gains reached into the 1.0166-94 area as expected. There is no sign of a peak as yet. Thus, while the internal structure is a bit clouded, watch the 1.0118-34 area. While this supports there is still risk of further gains that should move back above yesterday’s 1.0175 high but should then stall at 2.0212 minimum with a small risk of 1.0236. Care as this could cause a further pullback. Only above extends to 1.0258-85 which I feel should cap for losses.MT Bullish:The sharp reversal higher is raising the chance of a large sideways consolidation which would imply a target at 1.0258-85 which should cap. Only breach extends back to 1.0316 and 1.0376. (19th February)Daily Bearish:Gain seen which have stalled at 1.0175. I still feel there should be additional gains so any bearish stance will require a break below the 1.010-20 area. Only if seen will this generate stronger losses that would allow a move through the 1.0070-80 pivot area and to 1.0047 minimum and at most 1.0016. MT Bearish:It is looking more and more that we are seeing continued sideways trading. Thus only below 0.9918 would re-open the possibility of a drop to 0.9750-55 again. (19th February)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CADEWFeb20.gif
19th February
The sharp recovery from 0.9918 appears to suggest that the decline was merely a Wave –x- and thus we should see gains back to the 1.0258-85 area in an irregular triangle.
Only below 0.9918 now would re-open the bearish structure for a retest of the 0.9755 low in Wave efc of an expanded flat.
Pro Commentary Lite … 19th February 2008 … EURJPY02 19th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 158.55
Resistance:158.95159.46159.67159.97Support:158.10157.75157.50157.10http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EJP60mFeb19.gif
Bias:Care – until the 158.95 resistance is cleanly broken there is still risk of losses in a triangleDaily Bullish:Gains were seen as expected which stalled just a few points below the 158.95 resistance. There is no obvious reversal signal and thus we should still be aware of the risk of additional gains. While this is possible directly I’d like to see the 157.78-158.10 area support. A move then above 158.95 would extend gains to the 159.46 high and probably further towards 160.23-34 at least. Further resistance is seen at 160.88 and at most 161.30-41. MT Bullish:Price has expected to the low end of the 158.59-95 resistance and may well see the high end. However, only cleanly above means we shall see a stronger move higher to 161.41 at least. (15th February)Daily Bearish:Gains have stalled just a few points below 158.95 and as such the risk of losses remains. There is support between 157.78 and 158.10 and only a clean break below here would cause losses through yesterday’s 157.50 low and suggest losses to 156.80 and probably 156.48 which should hold. Next support is at 155.50-80. MT Bearish:I suspect a potential triangle in this section of the wave structure and thus while 158.95 caps we should see weakness re-emerge but stall at 154.85-12 and bounce before larger losses are seen. (15th February)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EJPEWFeb19.gif
14th February
This is beginning to look more bullish. The decline to 154.04 seems too shallow for a triangle but note the possible retracement to 158.59-95 that could support such a pattern.
On a larger scale a break back above 156.46 would be more bullish and suggest a wave equality target at 161.41.
A break back below 154.04 should lead back to the 152.09 low but the structure doesn’t yet look strong enough to suggest direct breach in Wave (v).
Long Term Report - EURUSD02 15th, 2008
The Dollar is likely to recover over the course of 2008 In my last report in October last year I identified that weekly cycles were due to find a high around the end of the year to give way to a more bullish Dollar picture for 2008. I identified a target somewhere between 1.4800 and 1.5000.
The Euro saw a high of 1.4966 on the 23rd November and from there we have seen a sideways consolidation.
Let’s just recap on the cyclic position. Please note these charts are inverted and thus cycles lows actually represent price highs.
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/Long%20Term%20Reports/EURUSD-Feb08Weeklycycles.gif
It can be seen that the low came in right around the predicted time frame, maybe just a few weeks earlier than anticipated but this was identified in the Pro Commentary daily report on the 24th November, the day following the 1.4966 high.
Since then we have seen a rather choppy sideways move but this has also performed according to the daily cycles:
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/Long%20Term%20Reports/EURUSD-Feb08Dailycycles.gif
Note how the recent price high at 1.4953 came right on cue with the first daily cycle high following the November weekly cycle high. It does suggest that there is risk of further losses to price.
The weekly cycle suggest quite a sustained pullback that should last for the majority of this year. It is a little difficult to identify cycle lows in the Euro and for that we shall have to judge through the structure of the decline.
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/Long%20Term%20Reports/EURUSD-Feb08Weeklychart.gif
The weekly chart shows that we have reached a peak in Wave (iii) and thus we should be talking about a decline in Wave (iv). There is a rather stretched bearish divergence but as yet the move lower has not really confirmed a price reversal.
However, note how the RSI has dropped below its support line which normally forewarns of a price break.
Potential targets for the Wave (iv) decline are at:
38.2% => 1.2919
41.4% => 1.2747
50.0% => 1.2287
Given the Wave (b) of Wave (iii) was a deep complex correction it would tend to suggest that Wave (iv) should be quite shallow so I think we’re probably talking about either the 38.2% retracement at 1.2919 or the 41.4% at 1.2747. Indeed, this falls into the area of the Wave (b) consolidation between 1.25 and 1.30.
Next we need to consider how this decline may develop.
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/Long%20Term%20Reports/EURUSD-Feb08Dailychart.gif
Note in the daily chart how the 1.4966 peak was accompanied by a bearish divergence and confirmed once price broke below the steep uptrend line marked in orange. The pullback to 1.4953 also saw the RSI move back to retest the divergence line.
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/Long%20Term%20Reports/EURUSD-Feb088hourchart.gif
The problem with corrections is that they can develop in several different ways and this is the challenge over the year. I have included an 8 hour chart on this occasion to show how the first move lower developed in three waves.
Pro Commentary Lite … 14th February 2008 … GBPUSD02 14th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.9621
Resistance:1.96401.96721.96941.9739Support:1.95901.95481.95161.9492http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/GBP60mFeb14.gif
Bias:We have either seen, or are close to, a major high and thus the larger risk remains lowerDaily Bullish:No high seen on Tuesday with gains managing to climb to 1.9663 – just below the 1.9672 major resistance. There is a minor bearish divergence but no real confirmation of reversal lower. There is support at 1.9590-95 and 1.9548 and while these hold there is still chance of seeing a little more on the upside. Back above 1.9640 would then see 1.9672 – max 1.9694. Look for a stronger bearish divergence. Next resistance is at 1.9739. MT Bullish:While the correction didn’t quite meet the 1.9672 target I suspect it is over. Thus still, if we are to see any stronger rally, we need a break above 1.9672-00 to see 1.9739 and 1.9785-00. (13th February)Daily Bearish:We got pretty close to the 1.9672 target resistance and the downside does seem imminent. There is support at 1.9590-95 and if this breaks then a move below the 1.9548 corrective lower would appear to confirm the minor bearish divergence. Next support is at 1.9516 while below there does seem to suggest a move all the way back tot eh 1.9386-00 lows and possibly the 1.9335 low. MT Bearish:With the deeper pullback to just under 1.9672 there does seem risk of resumption of the downtrend. Below 1.9386 will cause losses through 1.9335 and then much lower towards an eventual 1.85-1.87 target. (13th February)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/GBPEWFeb14.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 13th February 2008 … EURUSD02 13th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.4570
Resistance:1.45931.46131.46421.4677Support:1.45541.45251.45041.4480http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUR60mFeb13.gif
Bias:While 1.4554-64 support holds the risk is to 1.4642 at leastDaily Bullish:MT Bullish:Daily Bearish:MT Bearish:
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUREWFeb13.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 13th February 2008 … EURUSD02 13th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.4570
Resistance:1.45931.46131.46421.4677Support:1.45541.45251.45041.4480http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUR60mFeb13.gif
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUREWFeb13.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 12th February 2008 … USDJPY02 12th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 106.84
Resistance:107.20107.46107.88108.28Support:106.65106.33106.03105.88http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPY60mFeb12.gif
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPYEWFeb12.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 8th February 2008 … USDCAD02 8th, 2008
An excerpt fromFX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.0089
Resistance:1.01051.01261.01551.0188Support:1.00741.00301.00030.9986http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CAD60mFeb8.gif
Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaksDaily Bullish:The break of 1.0101 has complicated the picture. While it does seem to suggest upside risk we have not broken through the key 1.0132 resistance and there is a bearish divergence. Thus before getting too bullish we’ll need to see a break back above 1.0126-32 and if seen then the picture will confirm follow-through to 1.0155 and probably to the 1.0212 level at least. Take care there. Further (stronger) resistance is found at 1.0262-85. MT Bullish:I had though the break above 1.01 would be directly bullish but conditions aren’t 100% bullish. Above 1.0132 would see 1.0262-85 at least. Only breach would extend back to 1.0376. (8th February)Daily Bearish:I want to still keep an open mind here as there is a bearish divergence and I see resistance at 1.0132 – although I had thought the wave structure would look unbalanced if we saw this deep a correction. To re-instate the bearish stance we’ll need to see a break below 1.0030-42. If seen then watch for follow-through to 0.9986 at least. Next support is found at 0.9916-20.
MT Bearish:The 1.0126 high is stretching the bearish structure. Back below 1.0030 and then 0.9986 would suggest a move down to 0.9871 and later towards the 0.9730-55 area. (8th February)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CADEWFeb8.gif
Using Divergences to Identify Market Reversals02 7th, 2008
Using divergences correctly can help spot key market turns Many traders and analyst use price-momentum divergence to identify trend reversals. For those of you who are not familiar with this term divergences may be defined as follows:
[*]Bullish divergence: When price lows are lower in a trend but momentum lows are higher[*]Bearish divergence: When price highs are higher in a trend but momentum highs are lowerBasically what this is effectively saying is that momentum, that is the pace of the trend, slows then the underlying momentum indicator will not confirm the new price extremes by making new momentum extremes.
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/Articles/Usingdivergences1.gif
For example, it is easy to see from this chart that there has been a strong uptrend.
Below the price chart is a form of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) customized in Dealbook’s Chart Studio.
Note how the RSI is showing a bearish divergence. As you can see price highs are still rising but the RSI peaks have begun to fall. This is a feature that often accompanies a stronger reversal in the trend.
Is this a confirmed reversal signal?
Let’s see what happened next:
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/Articles/Usingdivergences2.gif
In fact the uptrend continued in spite of the divergence.
While this special version of RSI provides better divergence signals it is vital that price also confirms a reversal. This can be done using several methods.
Firstly, by considering the definition of an uptrend:
Pro Commentary Lite … 7th February 2008 … EURJPY02 7th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 155.34
Resistance:155.75156.11156.52156.99Support:154.94154.55154.17153.82http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EJP60mFeb7.gif
Bias:Care – there are two possibilities here but overall I still remain bearishDaily Bullish:Losses developed as expected but stalled just above the 154.94 target and caused a firm pullback. While the 154.94-155.13 area remains intact I still can’t rule out a second corrective move higher though I have my doubts. Thus for this second correction wait for a break back above 155.70-75. If seen it should provide some upside gains towards 156.11 and 156.52 en route a maximum 156.99 resistance. MT Bullish:The downside still looks the more likely direction. Only now back above 156.99-157.31 would provide relief for gains back to 157.43-80 and 158.44-60. (7th February)Daily Bearish:While the levels haven’t been totally accurate the downside has developed and I still feel there are further losses to be seen. Until the 154.94-13 area breaks I still can’t rule out a deeper pullback to around 156.99. While this holds – or we see a direct break below 154.94 (which I tend to favor) the downside can extend further to 153.82-89 which I think will hold. Next support is at 153.04. MT Bearish:The rejection just below the 159.36 highlights the risk of additional losses. Below 157.10 would open up 155.53-83 and 154.62 en route the 152.09 low once again where a correction is again possible.(30th January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EJPEWFeb7.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 6th February 2008 … AUDUSD02 6th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 0.8975
Resistance:0.89950.90190.90380.9061Support:0.89250.89000.88750.8856http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/AUD60mFeb6.gif
Bias:While 0.8990-95 caps the downside can continue else risk for a move back to 0.9061-99 againDaily Bullish:Loss of 0.9046 triggered much stronger losses and given the risk that we have seen a complete correction at 0.9099 we should wait for confirmation of any further gains. We will need the 0.8925-30 area to support and for a break back above the 0.8995 resistance. If seen it would put the bullish stance back in play. We should then watch 0.9019 but above there will be suggesting a move right back to 0.9061 at least and quite possibly the 0.9099 high. MT Bullish:We have either seen the high at 0.9099 or if this breaks then the 0.9189-98 area becomes implied but should provide a final cap in this rally. (5th February)Daily Barish:The break of the 0.9046 low was the key level and did cause losses down to the targeted 0.8969-85 area and also down to 0.8939. While 0.8990-95 caps and we see losses back below 0.9025-30 it should imply stronger losses to 0.8870-80 at least. Take care there as this could cause consolidation. Breach extends the downside to 0.8805-15. MT Bearish:With the move to 0.9099 we should wait for confirmation of losses. I do feel these will come but the rally has extended much higher than anticipated. Below 0.8969 would provide more impetus. (5th February)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/AUDEWFeb6.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 5th February 2008 … USDJPY02 5th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 106.74
Resistance:106.85107.07107.45107.88Support:106.57106.15105.75105.40http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPY60mFeb5.gif
Bias:While 106.57 continues to hold the emphasis should remain higher to 107.45Daily Bullish:Price did rally but stalled at 107.07. It doesn’t cause great problems for the upward preference but we need price to remain above this morning’s 106.57 low. A break then above 107.07 would extend the upside to 107.45 which should cap for a pullback. Next resistance is at 108.77-88. MT Bullish:Recent trading has been messy but has remained above the 104.95 low as suggested and thus I remain cautiously bullish for 107.88, 108.60-96 and 109.74 at the very least. (4th February)Daily Bearish:Price gains stalled lower than expected but the support between 106.50-75 has yet to break. Indeed, before getting too bearish we shall need this break to confirm losses which would then imply a drift down to 106.10-20. Below there extends the downside back to 105.75 and possibly 105.40. I still feel the 104.75 low should remain intact.
MT Bearish:We are seeing the expected correction from the 104.95 target and this should last for a while. Selling opportunities should be considered around 109.80-110.11. Below 104.95 sees losses to 103.44. (25th January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPYEWFeb5.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 4th February 2008 … EURUSD02 4th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.4794
Resistance:1.48251.48531.48891.4920Support:1.47851.47691.47311.4704http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUR60mFeb4.gif
Bias:The 1.4731-69 area should now support for a move back towards 1.4953Daily Bullish:Price bounced nicely from the 1.4950 target to generate a solid correction. This should reach the 1.4731-69 area which should hold and cause a reversal higher. There are two ways the next rally can occur – the first as a sideways consolidation with a peak around 1.4913-20 which would then be followed by a final rally above 1.4966. Alternatively we could see this rally develop directly and this would imply breach of 1.4920 to reach the 1.4950-66 area again from where a correction should develop.MT Bullish:The break above 1.4832 means we need to be aware of a possible follow-through but take care at 1.4955-76 and then 1.5025 and 1.5075. Only beyond signals 1.5210 at least. (31st January)Daily Bearish:The reversal from 1.4953 was just about perfect. We are due a cycle high this week but we should take care. While I do expect a final new high we must be aware that the downside is due to begin very soon. Current support which I feel will hold today is at 1.4731-69. Thus before getting too bearish look for breach of the lower 1.4731 level which, if seen, would push price lower through 1.4704 for 1.4659. This could well hold so be careful. Next support is at 1.4560-89 & 1.4503-09.MT Bearish:I do feel a major high is due soon but we could have to wait for a test of the 1.5210 area. Only an earlier cap below 1.4966 that subsequently breaks 1.4700-30 would suggest earlier losses. (4th February)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUREWFeb4.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 1st February 2008 … USDCHF02 1st, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.0810
Resistance:1.08201.08381.08581.0874Support:1.07781.07561.06981.0673http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CHF60mFeb1.gif
Bias:While 1.0858 caps the risk still looks lower back to 1.0756 and later to 1.0698-1.0713Daily Bullish:With the 1.0795-11 support giving way and the 4-hour FXS-RSI pushing lower we have to look more to the downside. There is now resistance at 1.0858 and while this caps the emphasis is lower. Thus only an earlier break above 1.0860 would provide greater relief for a move above 1.0900 for 1.0930 minimum and possibly 1.0966 & 1.1010. This higher resistance should cause a correction lower.MT Bullish:The 1.0806-11 target has been breached and suggests we should be patient for the next buying signal which should be lower. Only an earlier break above 1.0900 and then 1.0966 would imply earlier gains. (1st February)Daily Bearish:The dip below 1.0795 to 1.0756 caused 4-hour momentum to push lower and favor the downside still. Thus while 1.0858 caps the downside does look stronger. A move below 1.0778-87 would retest the 1.0756 low and then extend towards the 1.0698-1.0713 area. This should cause a correction higher again. Any breach would extend losses to 1.0652 minimum and probably lower.
MT Bearish:Loss of 1.0806 implies we should see lower in a full extension of the decline from 1.1594. A minimum target is at 1.0652 but we should watch for 1.0615 and at most 1.0542 before a larger recovery. (1st February)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CHFEWFeb1.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 31st January 2008 … GBPUSD01 31st, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.9834
Resistance:1.98661.99051.99572.0006Support:1.98151.97751.97501.9727http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/GBP60mJan31.gif
Bias:I suspect we may have seen the top but take care and watch for a break below 1.9810 & 1.9727Daily Bullish:We saw a peak right in the middle of the 1.9954-62 resistance with bearish divergences in hourly and 4-hour charts. I suspect at the very least we shall see a correction lower. Therefore only consider the chance of additional gains if we see a move back above the 1.9890-12 area. If seen we should find the rally move back to the area of yesterday’s high but should then see a correction lower. It would imply overall that there is room for a test of the 2.0083 Fibonacci retracement.MT Bullish:I’ll take the 1.9335 low as the end of this part of the decline and this should lead to a week or so of upward correction towards 1.9954 and at most 2.0083. However, that area should cap. (23rd January)Daily Bearish:The reversal from the 1.9954-62 range amid bearish divergences is encouraging. It should mean that at the very least we get a correction lower and may well imply stronger losses. There is resistance at 1.9890-12 and while this caps we should see loss of the 1.9810-20 area which would then extend losses down to the 1.9850-80 congestion and probably further to the 1.9727 corrective low. Take care there as this may cause a pullback. Next support is seen at 1.9645. MT Bearish:We are now approaching the preferred resistance at 1.9954-62 and while this caps we will either see a sideways correction and possibly the resumption of the downtrend to below 1.9335 – target around 1.85-87. (30th January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/GBPEWJan31.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 30th January 2008 … EURJPY01 30th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 157.83
Resistance:158.30158.51158.85159.36Support:157.40157.10156.91156.37
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EJP60mJan30.gif
Bias:I suspect that while 158.30-50 (max) caps we should see losses develop to 155.83
Daily Bullish:The 158.50 peak was not even tested and I somehow feel we have lost the window of opportunity to see any further gains. Thus I’d only reconsider the upside should we see a break above this morning’s 158.30 high and then 158.51. Only if seen would I expect follow-through to the 159.11-36 area but would watch this carefully as this could provide a larger cap. Next resistance is then found at 160.08-40.MT Bullish:I suspect we could be seeing some sideways trading. Thus a break higher will need a move above 159.11-36. Only if seen would the upside be possible to 160.40-90 at least. (29th January)Daily Bearish:Mainly sideways trading yesterday doesn’t really inspire the upside. However, if there are to be losses (as I suspect) we really do need a quick break below 157.40 and yesterday’s 157.10 low. If seen it should cause additional losses down to 156.37 and probably 155.53-83 where a correction is possible. Below extends to 155.16 and possibly 154.62. MT Bearish:The rejection just below the 159.36 highlights the risk of additional losses. Below 157.10 would open up 155.53-83 and 154.62 en route the 152.09 low once again where a correction is again possible.(30th January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EJPEWJan30.gif
Pro Commentary Lite .. 29th January 2008 … AUDUSD01 29th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 0.8868
Resistance:0.88980.89280.89550.8983Support:0.88500.88310.88000.8766http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/AUD60mJan29.gif
Bias:There is still no obvious topping pattern - while 0.8850-60 supports look for 0.8928 possibly higherDaily Bullish:We only saw 4 points below the 0.8770 support and from there we saw gains all the way to the 0.8898 resistance. This is a retracement target but hourly momentum has not developed a bearish divergence (although 4-hour has.) Thus while 0.8850-60 supports we could see another attempt higher. Break of 0.8898 would cause follow-through to 0.8928. Take care as this could force a pullback at the very least. Only above 0.8930 extends the gains to 0.8950-60 and 0.8983.MT Bullish:Nothing has really been convincing but before getting too bullish I’d like to see a break above 0.8900 and only then would the 0.9018 peak appear a possible target again.(28th January)Daily Bearish:While there is no obvious short term momentum reversal signal we should be aware of the key supports. The first is at 0.8850-60 and only below suggests the risk of follow-through. If seen then look for losses to extend to 0.8790-10 followed by 0.8766 and 0.8745. If this is seen it would suggest the 0.8895 peak formed a key high and would open the downside for further tests.MT Bearish:I remain bearish in the longer term but the pullback higher has been quite persistent. We need a break back below 0.8725 then 0.8586-09 to keep the downside structure intact for 0.8511 again. (25th January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/AUDEWJan29.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 25th January 2008 … GBPUSD01 25th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.9780
Resistance:1.97821.98101.98501.9889Support:1.97351.96861.96571.9610http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/GBP60mJan25.gif
Bias:While 1.9782 caps there should be a pullback to around 1.9678-86 before higher to 1.9889-00Daily Bullish:The break above 1.9550 and then 1.9590 high triggered gains all the way to 1.9771 and just above with resistance also at 1.9782. Take care here as this could cause a pullback all the way back to the 1.9678-86 area (max 1.9657) from where I feel we should see further gains back to the 1.9782 high and follow-through to 1.9889-00 which again should cause a pullback. Only a direct move above 1.9782 would see a test of 1.9889-00 directly. Stronger resistance is at 1.9954. MT Bullish:I’ll take the 1.9335 low as the end of this part of the decline and this should lead to a week or so of upward correction towards 1.9954 and at most 2.0083. However, that area should cap.(23rd January)Daily Bearish:Gains have been seen as expected from the 1.9335 low which have progressed well to target. A selling opportunity should come before too long. In fact, where price is right now while I’m writing the 1.9782 area has a good chance of causing a pullback below 1.4740 and 1.4705 towards the 1.9678-86 area. I suspect this will support – at the most 1.9657. Therefore, any further losses will require breach of 1.4650 and if seen would suggest room for follow-through to 1.9558 and possibly 1.9463-95.MT Bearish:I am taking the 1.9335 low as the base for the correction higher – even though the relationships are a bit loose. Thus only below 1.9335 directly would extend losses to 1.9254 and 1.9188. (23rd January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/GBPEWJan25.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 28th January 2008 … USDCAD01 28th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.0100
Resistance:1.01091.01331.01581.0196Support:1.00701.00451.00110.9974http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CAD60mJan28.gif
Bias:While 1.0133-53 caps the larger picture remains bearish for 0.9844-71Daily Bullish:Slow progress was seen on Friday with price testing the lower resistance area at 1.0104 with minor breach. While 1.0065-70 continues to support we should see direct gains to the next major resistance at 1.0153-64 which should cap for further losses. Thus any stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.0170 and if seen would cause a retracement back to 1.0215 and 1.0237-54. MT Bullish:The downside looks more likely now. Thus only a break back above 1.0170 would encourage back higher to 1.0237-54, 1.0290 and then 1.0376 high. (25th January)Daily Bearish:The upside has developed without being convincing and thus I remain bearish. We should find a good selling opportunity between 1.0133-64 from where I’ll be looking for losses to develop back below 1.0065-70 and then follow-through to the 1.0011 low. This may well cause a minor pullback but the larger picture suggests further losses through 0.9974 and 0.9936 to 0.9871 which should cause a pullback. MT Bearish:The downside has developed as expected and this should continue to the 0.9936 and probably 0.9871 levels before the next pullback. The eventual target will be back at 0.9755 and possibly a touch lower. (25th January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/CADEWJan28.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 24th January 2008 … USDJPY01 24th, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 106.45
Resistance:106.80107.08107.40107.79Support:106.20106.07105.65105.42http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPY60mJan24.gif
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPYEWJan24.gif
Pro Commentary Lite … 23rd January 200801 23rd, 2008
An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 1.4633
Resistance:1.46611.46831.47121.4742Support:1.46251.45951.45551.4524http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUR60mJan23.gif
Bias:We are in mid-range thus work with breaks – max upside 1.4772-00 and downside 1.4486-1.4524Daily Bullish:How frustrating… Price dipped to 1.4364 before seeing the recovery I had been looking for. However, this does give us two scenarios to play with. The first would be a straight pullback that should stall close to the 1.4712 area but then send price lower. Thus we need a break above there to suggest follow-through to the favored 1.4742-72 resistance (maybe a little above.) If we see direct losses then look at the 1.4486-1.4524 area which, while the 1.4742-72 area is possible, should hold. MT Bullish:The dip to 1.4390 came in 3 waves and thus I suspect we’ll see this higher – watch 1.4590, 1.4666-96 while an eventual target should develop in the 1.4770-00 area. This should see a move back lower in range. (22nd January)Daily Bearish:Loss of the 1.4385-90 area annoyed and with two possible scenarios, one calling for continued sideways ranging and the other suggesting after this correction we see direct losses below 1.4309 we need to be aware of the downside risk (though I feel it’s a bit too early.) There is resistance around 1.4712 and if this holds and we see a break below 1.4486-1.4524 followed by 1.4439 I would expect a retest of 1.4309. In the meantime First watch the 1.4625 support and then 1.4595-00 – loss would take us lower.MT Bearish:The downside has been much stronger than anticipated but only breach of 1.4385 would threaten the 1.4309 low and then again this needs to break to suggest follow-through to 1.4182 and possibly 1.4134. (22nd January)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUREWJan23.gif