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Shine's Eye ：是什么让Peter Lynch老人家昨日也来评论可再生能源股票
Shine2008 2006.6.20
"既然来了短期内难免卵石俱下，但是金子最终会发光"(见Shine's Eye:世界杯期间聊聊PV 2006.6.12）。
Peter Lynch昨日评Green stock： “far closer to a bottom in the correction than people realize.”“there are no buyers for the stocks. It could not “look” more negative.” “it is always darkest before the dawn” “Don’t all the “legendary” investors say that they buy when everyone else is selling?” “it is an excellent time to be buying “GREEN” stocks, when there is panic in the streets and everyone else is selling”。老人家是牛人，这时候出来讲哲学，如他自己所说，“interesting”：）
Solar Renewable Stock Sector “Ice Cold”
By Peter Lynch
June 19, 2006
With the Green Energy Virtual Stock Challenge starting on Monday the 19th of June, I thought it would be an ideal time to take a look at the renewable solar stock sector (see Note at end) and see how it is doing as of the close today - 16 June 2006.
As I have mentioned previous articles, 2005 was certainly the “Year of the Solar Stocks” and hopefully the beginning of the Renewable Energy age.
As you can see from the table below 2005 was an incredible year for “solar stocks”. The stocks with zero dollar change, PBW, STP and SPWR were not public in 2005.
However, as we all know, the market moves in cycles both up and down and usually going to extremes in both cases.
For those of you who have not been watching, the renewable energy sector of the market has had poor 2006 to date, especially when compared to 2005, and a terrible past SIX weeks. It has been in a severe correction phase, not just in the U.S. market but in the German solar market as well. The market as a whole has not been doing too well either, but compared to the “ice cold” renewable sector of 2006, it is doing fine.
Looking at the same stocks from a technical point of view, you can see that they are ALL below their 50 day moving average and most are below their 200 day averages. So there is obviously wide spread damage being done to the sector, most of which occurred in the last 6 weeks.
The same magnitude of correction can be seen in the German PV market. All of the stocks are below their 50 day moving averages and most are also below their 200 day moving averages.
These numbers, in both markets, certainly reflex the widespread damage in the hottest stock sector of the stock market in 2005. But once again the market works its unfathomable “wisdom” and all the great stocks in 2005 are totally unpopular in 2006. What has transpired in the few short months since the end of 2005?
Probably nothing, at least in the long term has fundamentally changed, but what about the short term? Are we at another extreme, where the market has taken things too far?
My guess it that we are far closer to a bottom in the correction than people realize.
Everyone is afraid, the “blood is running in the street”, and there are no buyers for the stocks. It could not “look” more negative.
But what else is there to consider? How about the likelihood that there are ALSO no more sellers? Isn’t there an old saying: “it is always darkest before the dawn”?
Don’t all the “legendary” investors say that they buy when everyone else is selling?
This is certainly interesting to consider and maybe, just maybe, it is an excellent time to be buying “GREEN” stocks, when there is panic in the streets and everyone else is selling.
Note: most of the public companies in the renewable sector are involved in Photovoltaics. There are obviously a number of other companies in other areas and a number of smaller companies. However, due to availability of data and an effort to focus, I have decided to focus on the largest area.
J. Peter Lynch has worked, for 29 years as a Wall Street analyst, an independent equity analyst and private investor, and a merchant banker in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977and is regarded as an expert in this area. He is currently a financial and technology consultant to a number of companies He can be reached via e-mail at Solarjpl@aol.com.
Disclaimer
Peter Lynch is an independent columnist for this web site and may hold long or short positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this article and those positions can change at any moment. InvestorIdeas.com Disclaimer: www.InvestorIdeas.com/About/Disclaimer.asp, InvestorIdeas is not directly affiliated or compensated by the companies mentioned in this article. Nothing in the articles should be construed as an offer or solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any specific products or securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. |
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发表于 2006-6-19 22:41