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 楼主| 发表于 2006-5-16 16:51 | 显示全部楼层

The Coming Boom in Photovoltaic Power

What is most amazing is that the worldwide photovoltaic industry is still so small.

In our feature ”Photovoltaics - The Ultimate Renewable” we demonstrate why photovoltaics are a compelling long-term investment even at 2006 prices. In short, the reason you would pay a lifetime cost of $.20 per kilowatt-hour to install a photovoltaic system is because once you’d absorbed that initial installation cost, your annual cost to replace photovoltaics at the rate they degrade is well below the market price of conventional electricity, under $.02 per kilowatt-hour. For this reason, even at today’s high prices, photovoltaic manufacturers are selling them as fast as they can make them.

So why isn’t there more photovoltaic manufacturing capacity? Why is the installed base of photovoltaics in the world barely over 10 gigawatts?

Most photovoltaics are manufactured using polysilicon, the same semi-conductor substrate used for integrated circuits. For years, the photovoltaic manufacturers have bought their polysilicon from manufacturers who primarily produced this product for the computer industry. But in 2005, photovoltaic manufacturing output rose to over 1.6 gigawatts, and for the first time, the solar energy industry was competing with the computer industry to buy polysilicon. Photovoltaic panels consumed about one-third of the 30,000 tons of polysilicon produced worldwide in 2005, about 10,000 tons. Some people think there’s going to be a shortage of polysilicon, and in the short run, they’re probably right.

The economics of polysilicon production, however, rule out the possibility of a long term shortage. Currently polysilicon costs $60 per kilogram. According to an excellent report authored by Jesse Pichel and Ming Yang, Research Analysts with Piper Jaffray, posted on the website Renewable Energy Access, it costs $200 million to build a manufacturing plant capable of outputting 3,000 metric tons of polysilicon per year. That means that at $50 per kilogram, such a factory would gross $150 million every year. Considering the raw material, unprocessed silicon, is one of the most abundant materials on earth, the margins must be pretty good. When the photovoltaic industry only consumed 10% of the world’s polysilicon manfacturing capacity, manufacturers were reluctant to build new plants since the integrated circuit industry - their primary customer - is cyclical and experiences booms and busts. But now the solar cell manufacturers are consuming over 30% of worldwide polysilicon manufacturing capacity, with no end in sight. Demand from the photovoltaic segment is significant, sustainable, and growing fast.

This changes things. Look for the major polysilicon manufacturers – Hemlock, Tokuyama, Wacker, REC, and MEMC - to ramp up production significantly by 2008, and expect many new entrants.

Why, for example, aren’t the major solar customers for polysilicon – BP Solar, Energy Conversion, Evergreen Solar, Kyocera, Mitsubishi, Motech, Q-Cells, Sanyo, Sharp, Sunpower, Suntech, and Shell Solar - investing in their own polysilicon manufacturing?

For $200 million these value-added photovoltaic manufacturers can build their own polysilicon plants to create 3,000 tons of polysilicon per year, which at $50 per kilogram would have a market value of $150 million. When one considers that a kilogram of polysilicon can then be turned into a photovoltaic panel with an output of about 125 watts, then at a price of $2.00 per watt (much lower than today’s prices), another $750 million in revenue is possible per year per plant, or $600 million in margin after purchasing the polysilicon - plenty of money to cover the cost of the value-added processes to turn the polysilicon ingots into photovoltaic panels.

What is most amazing is that the worldwide photovoltaic industry is still so small. The entire world output of polysilicon for photovoltaic panels could be doubled with an investment of $600M for three plants producing 3,000 tons per year each. World energy consumption from all sources, last year, topped 20,000 gigawatts - and only 10 of these 20,000 gigawatts (that’s 0.05% or one-twentieth of one percent) were supplied by photovoltaics - the ultimate renewable. This industry is going to take off in a very, very big way.

好啦,今天基本面的资料不发了,自己留着看看吧。

[ 本帖最后由 qinjiayu 于 2006-5-16 16:53 编辑 ]
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发表于 2006-5-16 17:02 | 显示全部楼层

眼前对天威的走势影响最大的是定向增发的问题。

哪位消息流通人士说几句?
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发表于 2006-5-16 17:06 | 显示全部楼层

还真有这么个事情

原帖由 zhuyl88 于 2006-5-16 13:05 发表
据有关专家言,如果中美两国的电网联网,中美的电力供应可以实现互补,可以节约大量能源投资。相信未来关于新能源的生产、存储、联网技术会快速发展。天威现在的发展是正确的,希望有一天成为爱克森美孚、bp一样的 ...


兄弟,但不是美国,是从俄罗斯.不信?一搜就有这方面的报道
正所谓南水北调,北煤南运.西气东输,西.南电东.南变.呵呵搞的不小喽
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发表于 2006-5-16 17:10 | 显示全部楼层
调查公司JStar警告:07年多晶硅供应缺口将达1万吨!

http://www.newenergy.com.cn  2006-5-16 9:23:00  日经BP社报道

  调查公司日本JStar日前公布一项预测,半导体和太阳能电池所使用的多晶硅材料供应今后将更为紧张,2007年的供应缺口将超过1万吨。有可能阻碍半导体产业和太阳能电池产业的发展。为了满足半导体产业和太阳能电池产业的需求,今后至少需要近2000亿日元的设备投资来提高多晶硅材料的产量。

  多晶硅材料之所以供应不足,一是其传统应用领域半导体需求正在稳步增长,二是太阳能电池的需求也在急剧增长。据JStar公司推算,2005年太阳能电池所消耗的多晶硅材料约为1万吨,在当年生产的约3万吨多晶硅总量中相当于1/3左右。太阳能电池对多晶硅的需求自2001至2005年一直在以平均45%的年增长率持续提高,假如这种趋势继续下去的话,2007年将达到约2万吨。这几乎等于2005年用于半导体的多晶硅产量。

  JStar公司预测,半导体领域对多晶硅材料的需求今后也将保持强劲增长。因为平板电视、手机和笔记本电脑等领域对半导体的需求将继续看涨。WSTS(全球半导体市场统计)预计2006年和2007年全球半导体市场的规模增长分别为8%和10.6%。如果照此发展下去,半导体领域对多晶硅的需求2007年将超过2万5000吨。加上上面所说的太阳能电池领域的需求,2007年对多晶硅材料的总需求就将达到约4万5000吨。

  而多晶硅产量的增长率自2001年至2005年平均增幅只有6%。如果今后仍维持现有水平,2007年多晶硅总产量预计将达到3万6000吨左右。根据以上数据综合分析,2007年多晶硅的供应缺口总计在9000吨~1万1000吨之间。业界普遍认为,每增加1000吨多晶硅材料,需要约200亿日元的设备投资。也就是说,为了增产约1万吨,总计将需要约2000亿日元的设备投资。(记者:大石 基之)
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发表于 2006-5-16 17:35 | 显示全部楼层

顶!!!招商这种黑心报告也敢出???看看这个吧

QUOTE:
原帖由 trustking 于 2006-5-16 15:42 发表
..............
3. 4 月份形成35 兆瓦电池片产能
控股子太阳能科技公司30 兆瓦电池片生产线按照计划安装调试完毕,4 月份开始投入生产,目前形成35 兆
瓦电池片,超过80 兆瓦电池组件的年产能。我们预计全年业 ...

原帖由 yhohnsm 于 2006-5-16 16:13 发表

我就奇怪了.为什么此人不对600550预测目标位!看来现在的所谓研究报告也是替庄稼抬轿的!这样的话也许过不了多久,机构研究报告会像现在的股市咨询公司一样如过街老鼠,人人喊打!黑,真黑!!!!!!


      航天机电--太阳能毛利率太低       2006年04月06日 17:09 昆仑证券

    航天机电(600151)(行情,预警,轨迹,资讯)公布2005年报,每股收益0.138元,主营业收入18亿元、增长2.58%;净利润6458万元、下降38.24%;拟10转6股10派2元(含税)。

    评析:乍一见到航天机电的业绩居然是下降的,还真不敢相信,不过,公司也解释原因之一
是:公司参股的国泰君安和国泰投资管理公司计提了长期减值准备,合计减少年度收益1491万元。但是公司的太阳能产品的毛利率却实在太低,仅有15.67%,甚至还不如公司生产的汽车空调(毛利率17.78%),虽然来自太阳能的主营业收入较上年增加了176%,但成本增加更快、达231%,以至于太阳能毛利率同比下降了13.45%。公司持股70%的上海太阳能科技有限公司(最新注册资本1亿元),在2004年实现净利润1113万股,在2005年实现净利润2861万元,若增长速度,也够猛的,但若与无锡尚德(2005年净利润3062万美元)、天威英利(2005年实现净利润8480万元人民币)这两家国内公认的太阳能龙头相比,规模还差很多。不过,在股改停牌期间,它推出转6股的分红方案,也算是用心良苦。
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发表于 2006-5-16 17:36 | 显示全部楼层

顶!!!招商这种黑心报告也敢出???看看这个吧

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发表于 2006-5-16 18:22 | 显示全部楼层

研究员开始搏傻的时候,说明了什么?

看看最近的研究报告,我只能说现在连研究员都开始搏傻了,,,,,,
所以,"金属"变成"今输"的可能性极高
所以,多晶硅就变成了都是龟.
所以,一跌,还是要回归基本面的.
千万别认为别人比自己知道的少,比自己傻.
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发表于 2006-5-16 21:39 | 显示全部楼层
明天可以买了吗?
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发表于 2006-5-16 21:46 | 显示全部楼层
疑问:此多晶硅是彼多晶硅么?

本报讯(记者 于婷 王鑫)成都高新区四川超磊实业股份有限公司日前正在筹备新的多晶硅生产工厂:今年8月工厂正式动工,将实现年产太阳能多晶硅2000吨,预计年销售额达24亿元。该公司高级工程师李长生透露,一年后,国内最大的太阳能多晶硅生产厂将在四川广元正式投产,届时四川生产的多晶硅将推动国内电子行业的整体发展。
百姓生活离不开多晶硅
    “到2007年,全国对于多晶硅的需求量预计将达到10000吨。”李长生说,目前,95%以上半导体器件都是由硅材料制造,从计算机到电子通讯系统、汽车产品、家用电器等与百姓生活、航天科技等有关的一些物品,都离不开多晶硅。长期以来,国外部分多晶硅生产企业实行技术封锁,限购和禁购多晶硅材料,导致国内多晶硅供应市场有价无货。
    据有关专家分析,2010年,光伏级多晶硅年需求量将达到4200吨左右。为解决制约信息产业和光伏产业的发展瓶颈,满足国内材料需求,未来5年建设2~3条千吨级多晶硅生产线十分必要。目前,国内只有3家企业有生产多晶硅的技术,其中两家还无法正式投入生产。专家指出,如果多晶硅产业受制于国际市场的状况无法改变,将危及集成电路、半导体器件和光伏产业。
对成都半导体生产有益
    “今年8月,我们的生产工厂就正式动工,预计一年后可以建成投产。”该公司董事长罗凡介绍,“新工厂的生产设备分别从德国、日本、俄罗斯等国进口,投资近10亿元,再加上我们自发研究加工的设备10亿元。”
    李长生说,尽管新工厂建成投产后,仍无法完全解决国内市场对多晶硅的需求,但重要的是技术上的突破。目前全国大部分半导体生产企业都是花费巨资从国外采购生产所需的多晶硅材料。
    “如果企业正式投产达到年产2000吨多晶硅,无疑对成都乃至全国的半导体生产是个福音。”业内专家分析,由于目前国内多晶硅生产企业技术、资金有限,市场对多晶硅的需求量日益增加,一个年产量实现2000吨的工厂落户四川,很多四川、成都的半导体企业都可以就近选择材料了。
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发表于 2006-5-16 22:49 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 pingxianren666 于 2006-5-16 21:39 发表
明天可以买了吗?


取决于你怎么判断550的价值
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发表于 2006-5-16 22:59 | 显示全部楼层
Cheaper Solar Comes Closer


Solar startup Stellaris wins MIT competition, says it will launch
low-cost, high-efficiency solar modules in 2007.
May 15, 2006

Solar startup Stellaris, which won first place in the MIT Enterprise Forum’s clean energy business plan
competition this year, said Monday that it expects to launch its low-cost, high-efficiency solar modules next year.

The company has a concentrating solar technology that it said will cut the cost of solar modules by
40 percent and convert 20 percent more sunlight into electricity, compared with current solar
energy systems.

Stellaris won first place in MIT’s Ignite Clean Energy Business Presentation Competition on Thursday,
netting $15,000 in cash, office space worth $25,000, and legal services worth $7,500.

“Winning this competition will greatly increase our visibility with potential investors on both coasts,
and for this we are grateful,” said Stellaris President Jim Paull. “It’s rewarding when a team of
industry experts from energy technology companies, venture capital firms, and academic technology
experts confirm that you are on the right track.”

Jonathan Klavens, chair of the judging committee and an attorney with Bernstein,Cushner & Kimmell
in Boston, said judges were impressed by Stellaris’s “strong and varied” management group, among
other things.

“The team did not just come in with an idea from the lab,” he said. “The team has already
developed a prototype and presented a viable business plan, showing strong market need from a
range of customers, from manufacturers of building materials to end-use consumers.

“Stellaris presented compelling evidence that the strong market for solar technology, coupled with
shortages of quality silicon, were such that the business could take off and thrive in a reasonable
time period,” he added.

The judges were also impressed with the visual aspects of the technology, and the fact that it could
fit into buildings to improve the quality of life while providing energy, said Mr. Klavens.

Clean Energy in Competition

Aside from Stellaris, other Ignite winners included Solasta, another solar team; Feed Resource
Recovery, which makes biomethane and fertilizer from organic waste; NatEl, which has technology
to make hydropower using small dams; and Synergetic Power Systems, another concentrating
solar firm.

The Ignite competition is solely intended for clean energy business plans. But clean energy
technologies have also been winning accolades at other,more generalized, business plan competetion
Earlier this month, for example, Aurora BioFuels won first prize at the UC Berkeley Business Plan
Competition.

“I think the penny is finally dropping,” said Nicholas Parker, chairman of the Cleantech Venture
Network, a cleantech industry monitor. “You’re seeing the transformation of a multitrillion-dollar
market, and seeing 20 years of stuff in the lab starting to come out.”

He has noticed a parallel trend occurring as well.

“People are also seeing a social transformation, a generation of entrepreneurs who not only want
to make the big pot of gold, but also want to provide a major solution to a major problem,”
added Mr. Parker. “There’s a combination of zeal, savvy, engineering prowess, and a sense of
being on a mission. It’s bringing out a lot of people currently in campuses, and that’s very exciting.”

Solar Concentration

Solar concentrators enhance the amount of sunlight that can be converted into electricity by solar
photovoltaic cells. Most use mirrors that track the sun and direct more light into solar panels (
see Solar May Get Cheaper, Energy Innovations Gets Cash, and Tech Pioneer: Bill Gross).

But there are challenges. Many concentrators have moving parts that can make
them unreliable. Still, concentrating technologies have the potential to drastically reduce the cost
of solar, which could help grow the market quickly once a worldwide shortage of polysilicon ends.


Formed in April 2005, Stellaris says its technology is distinguished by a lack of mirrors or moving parts.

Instead, the glazing technology uses tiny cone-shaped polycarbonate lenses to direct light into
smaller amounts of photovoltaic material. A number of these lenses are combined into solar tiles,
which look black when viewed straight on, but appear to be clear when viewed from an angle.

Because they are translucent, the solar panels can be used not only on rooftops, but in windows,
curtain walls, and skylights, said Tom Ward, vice president of marketing and sales at Stellaris.

“Architects have been extremely interested in the architectural advantages that
we have,” he said.He noted that some Boston architects are considering using the panels in school
buildings.


Cost and Efficiency

With Stellaris’s technology, solar-power systems can produce the same amount of electricity as
other systems, using only one-third of the photovoltaic material, according to Mr. Ward. He predicts
the technology will result in an overall cost savings of about 40 percent.

Instead of crystalline solar photovoltaic cells, the concentrators use thin-film solar cells. Thin-film
cells contain little or no costly polysilicon, which is especially advantageous during a polysilicon
shortage (see Solar’s Going Thin).

Stellaris’s technology is compatible with any thin-film technology, according to Mr. Ward.

Mr. Parker of the Cleantech Venture Network said the technology is interesting, but added that
there is a lot of competition in the space. One challenge will be getting warranties for the new
technology, as thin-film cells have historically degraded more quickly than crystalline cells, he said.

“It’s a matter of taking a lab test and proving it out in the real world,” he said. “Degradation has
been a problem with thin film. It’s got to be plug and play. A concentrator adds a whole new level
of complexity, depending on how it’s embedded in the product.”

He believes it may take some time for Stellaris to capitalize on its recent triumph.

“It’s one thing to win a business plan competition, but there’s a lot of pilot work that’s got to be
done before this is a successful company,” said Mr. Parker. “There’s a long way to go.”

Seeing Green

But Mr. Ward said Stellaris plans to bring its panels to market next year, and to be profitable by
the end of 2008.

The company is now looking to raise $1.5 million in venture capital funding to “perfect” its
manufacturing process, he said.

In 2007, Stellaris plans to raise another $8.5 million to commercialize its panels. The company
intends to seek another $10 million or so in 2008, said Mr. Ward, to ramp up production and
grow the business to full capacity.
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:06 | 显示全部楼层
明天可以进了。
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:08 | 显示全部楼层
(600151)“G航天”公布董监事会决议公告

    上海航天汽车机电股份有限公司于2006年5月15日召开三届十七次董、监事
会,会议审议通过关于对全资子公司上海航天新能源发展有限公司(下称:航能
发展)增资的议案:董事会拟用自筹资金向航能发展首次增资4亿元。该议案需提
交股东大会批准。
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:14 | 显示全部楼层

看到的关于天威的报道!top大师求救!!!

中国注册会计师协会某负责人透露,纽约股票交易所委托普华永道会计师事务所在审计“保定天威保变电气股份有限公司”(以下简称天威保变)的上市资料过程中,提出天威保变在存货计价,坏账准备计提,无形资产估价,以及关联方交易的会计处理和信息披露方面,不符合国际惯例,出具了带有说明段的保留意见的审计报告,可能对英利的海外上市产生影响。(转自大中华网站)
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:15 | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 shine2008 于 2005-11-6 10:38 发表
原创:简单谈谈天威的变压器业务是负担吗?

    关于天威的变压器业务,市场多半把它作为天威业绩的负担,但没有看到其有利的一面,故我不这么看。
天威英利今后要作大作强,势必要向全方位的太阳能光伏一揽子供应商发展,其产业链应该从多晶硅一直到全套太阳能光伏电站设备提供及安装并网,包括太阳能光伏并网电站和太阳能光伏独立电站、太阳能照明工程、太阳能建筑一体化(BIPV)工程等,请注意产业链最后的这几个项目实际上和输变电设备制造(即变压器)在技术上是同源的。……

原帖由 shine2008 于 2005-11-28 09:39 发表
原创:天威英利还值不值钱?
......
最后,从来没有人提过“YINGLI”这个牌子有没有价值。只要这个牌子不断地以自身品牌出现在国外主流市场,这个牌子就会有价值。华为现在在欧洲开始吃香了,不也正是多年前以其自身品牌在欧洲打拼的结果,虽然刚开始做的是欧洲小国的小单。......


原帖由 shine2008 于 2006-2-10 22:52 发表
……
英利现在这个起步,比起当年华为中兴在欧洲的起步,已经好了不知多少了,不是吗



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Shine's Eye:天威+英利的优势:有感Yingli Solar在德国的扩展超过想象

Shine2008    2006.5.16

与早期Yingli Solar只是在德国卖组件不同,最近据媒体报道,英利在德国作了个世界杯足球场的光伏电源工程,即凯泽斯劳滕足球场。另外还有一个山坡PV电站项目。Yingli Solar在德国市场的运作幅度和成果可以说是超出先前的想象,一个世界杯赛场的PV电源,对企业市场形象的提升是难以估量的!德国的世界杯网站也认为采用太阳能的凯泽斯劳滕球场是这次环保世界杯的一个突出例子(World Cup host city Kaiserslautern will be an outstanding example of German technological expertise in solar technology……,http://www.wm2006.rlp.de/Englisc ... 1-7129-c3cf5a06189a) 。PV Fans在分析苗说的德国合作伙伴选“小”的问题时,就指出这是Yingli Solar要进入PV电站工程(系统集成)这块肥肉的意图表现,所以选“小”要话语权。实际上这两个德国合作伙伴的“小”也是相对的,关注PV国际市场的人对他们都不会陌生。正如我去年文中提出,天威保变在输变电领域的工程优势和PV电站系统集成在技术上是同源的,可以说天威+英利在这方面是难得的天仙配,是天然的优势。反过来看国内几个,尚德按老施的想法重点只作熟悉的那块,在产业链方面暂时难有突破;特变虽然有输变电优势,但他的PV不是同一个档次的;航天就更不要提了。在英利的干货价上,以后看来也要加上系统集成这块。希望Yingli Solar在系统集成上再接再厉,PV Fans(威迷)幸哉。



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发表于 2006-5-16 23:16 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 小散户1 于 2006-5-16 23:08 发表
(600151)“G航天”公布董监事会决议公告

    上海航天汽车机电股份有限公司于2006年5月15日召开三届十七次董、监事
会,会议审议通过关于对全资子公司上海航天新能源发展有限公司(下称:航能
发展)增资的议案 ...

看来151收购新光股权是真的了。。
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:42 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 268853964 于 2006-5-16 23:14 发表
纽约股票交易所委托普华永道会计师事务所在审计“保定天威保变电气股份有限公司”(以下简称天威保变)的上市资料过程中,提出天威保变在存货计价,坏账准备计提,无形资产估价, ...



1. 中國註冊會計師協會某負責人>>> 一個小小的“天威”不用驚動這樣的高層
    而且0550 關這位高層什麼事呢?他也是0550 的 FANS ??
2. PWC 自己在中國的官司纏身,又想陷入“會計”門?
3. 走漏消息對四大行簡直是“恥辱”,就好象有關中國銀行壞帳的內部統計數字被曝光,
    安永要馬上出來道歉並承擔全部責任
4. 現在有關0550 的負面消息的確不少,但真與假還是可以鑒別得到的
5.  對於“別有用心”的人,一句話--- 出來混,是要還的
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:45 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 268853964 于 2006-5-16 23:14 发表
中国注册会计师协会某负责人透露,纽约股票交易所委托普华永道会计师事务所在审计“保定天威保变电气股份有限公司”(以下简称天威保变)的上市资料过程中,提出天威保变在存货计价,坏账准备计提,无形资产估价, ...


完全造谣!!小心你的狗头!!!!

[ 本帖最后由 心中无股真豪杰 于 2006-5-16 23:51 编辑 ]
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:48 | 显示全部楼层
shine是不是徐?
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发表于 2006-5-16 23:48 | 显示全部楼层
我真的希望編“消息”的人再專業D
直接說美國人懷疑天威做假帳就好,何必搞那麼複雜
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