第一次买进

trustking

..............
3. 4 月份形成35 兆瓦电池片产能
控股子太阳能科技公司30 兆瓦电池片生产线按照计划安装调试完毕，4 月份开始投入生产，目前形成35 兆
瓦电池片，超过80 兆瓦电池组件的年产能。我们预计全年业务收入超过12 亿元，为G 航天贡献净利0.98
亿元，较去年2003 万元取得390%的增长。
4. 受地方政府重点支持
上海市市政府“航天闵行”规划占地5 平方公里。公司成为三家受政府支持的重点企业之一，已经成立全资
子公司“上海航天新能源发展公司”，将成为太阳能产业发展重要平台。规划中07 年达到电池片、电池组件
双100 兆瓦产能，近5 年内总产能达500-1000 亿元。
5. 控股收购成功可能性提高
公司控股收购某国内硅晶体原料厂可能性增加，预计最迟6 月份正式公告的可能性非常大。一旦收购成功，
公司就为完善产业链奠定坚实基础，依托空间能源研究所的技术力量，将成长为国内光伏发电产业龙头企业。

业绩预测与投资评级
预计06 年全年主营业务收入同比增长75.5%。其中汽配业务预计贡献每股收益0.12 元。太阳能科技公司收
入12 亿，为上市公司贡献利润0.98 亿元（每股收益0.209 元），考虑05 年记提国泰君安投资减值准备1491
万元的回冲，保守预计全年EPS0.36 元。
目前股价17.51 元，考虑收购的可能，保守预计07 年整体业绩增长75.62%，每股收益0.84 元。无锡尚德（STP纽交所）目前股价32$，相对于06 年收益58 倍、07 年收益40 倍动态市盈率。公司成长性优于尚德，参照尚德估值，07 年公司汽配业务等按10 倍、太阳能业务按40-45 倍动态市盈率估算，未来12 个月内目标价格在29.7-33.5 元区间，我们继续维持强烈推荐的投资评级。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
汪刘胜
0755-25310137
wangls@ccs.com.cn
招商的研究员
－－－－－－－－－－“可能性提高”
基于一个可能性，“未来12 个月内目标价格在29.7-33.5 元区间，我们继续维持强烈推荐的投资评级”
那基于天威的若干确定性呢？
得出的数字，让国内的研究员自己都无法相信！

qinjiayu

Peterborough, NH [RenewableEnergyAccess.com] Travis Bradford of the Cambridge, Mass. based Prometheus Institute informs "Inside Renewable Energy" this week that the much-feared silicon shortage will not have a major impact on the production of PV solar. Silicon-based technology is too entrenched for rapid conversion to other methods, and silicon is in better supply than previously thought, says Bradford. Conventional solar cell operations will continue to do brisk business despite ongoing attempts to market new low-silicon or silicon-free technologies, he says.

In the Tech Spotlight segment of this week's podcast, David Muchow, CEO of Skybuilt Power, tells us why his Mobile Power Station addresses an overlooked area of energy needs. The MPS is a modular system than accommodates all forms of renewable technology and is designed to the customer's specifications for use in remote areas. Muchow explains how the U.S. Army and any number of undeveloped countries could benefit from his company's product.

As always, "Inside Renewable Energy" will deliver the latest renewable energy news.

qinjiayu

Mark LaPedus   
EE Times
(05/08/2006 3:33 H EDT)  


SAN JOSE, Calif. — Prices for silicon wafers have quietly jumped twice in the past six months amid capacity and material shortages in the marketplace, according to analysts.
Leading silicon wafer suppliers — including MEMC, Siltronic, Sumco and Shin-Etsu Handotai — have reportedly raised their respective prices on at least two occasions according to analysts.

Suppliers of silicon wafers first increased their prices by 5-to-6 percent in December of last year, said Rich Winegarner, president of Sage Concepts Inc. (Healdsburg, Calif.), a market research firm.

Then, last month, suppliers quietly raised their prices another 5-to-6 percent due to perceived polysilicon material shortages and lack of 200-mm capacity, Winegarner said.

“People are worried about not getting enough material,” he said. “Besides that, 200-mm silicon wafer capacity is tight, because no one wants to invest in 200-mm production.”

Silicon wafer makers are scrambling to expand their 300-mm capacities amid strong demand in the market. The average selling price for a 200- and 300-mm silicon wafer is about $45 and $200 right now, respectively, he added.

Material shortages are a major concern. Prices for polysilicon are expected to see further increases this year and next amid ongoing shortages for the materials due to huge demand from the solar industry. Ongoing shortages of polysilicon is expected to restrict the growth rates in the worldwide solar photovoltaic (PV) market to just 10 percent in 2006, according to Solarbuzz LLC.

In total, the silicon wafer industry is expected to grow 5-to-6 percent this year terms of area shipments. In terms of revenues, the silicon wafer market will grow 12-to-15 percent in 2006 over 2005, according to Sage Concepts.

硅片价格再次上涨。

[ 本帖最后由 qinjiayu 于 2006-5-16 16:14 编辑 ]

yhohnsm

原帖由 trustking 于 2006-5-16 15:42 发表
..............
3. 4 月份形成35 兆瓦电池片产能
控股子太阳能科技公司30 兆瓦电池片生产线按照计划安装调试完毕，4 月份开始投入生产，目前形成35 兆
瓦电池片，超过80 兆瓦电池组件的年产能。我们预计全年业 ...

我就奇怪了．为什么此人不对600550预测目标位!看来现在的所谓研究报告也是替庄稼抬轿的!这样的话也许过不了多久,机构研究报告会像现在的股市咨询公司一样如过街老鼠,人人喊打!黑,真黑!!!!!!

法家

持有到英利上市再说嘛!

yjg0133

招商的这个研究员,比我勇敢,这几天鼓了鼓勇气,说了说自己一直心里的观点.就是英利2年内比stp强,没有想到有人认为,0151比stp强.
用这个可能性的方法在去年这个时候研究0550,估计就没有什么云信的事情了，全是他们招商的了-----那个时候招商不是没有0550,是做波段做丢了----权当招商证券和基金是一家了,不一定对.
现在研究PV没有点确定性,靠可能性,容易犯去年相反的错误.
该可能不可能
该确定不确定
非也

qinjiayu

The world’s largest chip equipment maker bought Applied Films for $464 million to enter the solar cell market.May 4, 2006

Chip equipment maker Applied Materials said Thursday it’s buying Applied Films for $464 million, a purchase that will enable Applied Materials to enter the growing solar cell market.

Applied Materials, which develops million-dollar machines for chip manufacturing, wants a piece of the fast-growing solar market. Aside from solar cells, Applied Films’ thin-film deposition equipment is used to produce flat panel displays, flexible electronics, and energy-efficient glass.

“The acquisition of Applied Films expands our flat panel business to offer color filter products, and opens the fast-growing solar market for us,” said Mike Splinter, CEO of Applied Materials.

Applied Materials, based in Santa Clara, California, will pay $28.50 for each outstanding share of Applied Films and assume the company’s outstanding stock options. The deal represents a 25 percent premium over Applied Films’ closing price of $22.76 on Wednesday.

Applied Films’ shares jumped 22.03 percent to close at $28.03 per share. Applied Materials’ shares rose 2.71 percent to $18.55 per share.

Thin-film solar cell technology is hot because it promises to be a good alternative to conventional solar cells, which use silicon as one of their main ingredients. In recent years, makers of conventional solar cells have run into silicon shortage. Thin-film solar cells have a size and flexibility that make them suitable for a variety of electronics devices.

Several startup companies such as HelioVolt have developed thin-film coating materials and methods that promise to create better-performing and cheaper solar cells.

Applied Films, which was formed in 1976, created a solar division just two months ago to better focus on the market.

Applied Materials expects to close the deal during its third quarter.

硅片切薄是一种热门的技术来应付多晶硅的短缺。

trustking

东方证券 能源分析师 袁XX
川投能源
新光注入明确旗舰地位，成长预期兑现开始
􀁺 川投集团拥有较多的优质水电以及其他产业
资产，是实力雄厚的投资控股形公司。四川省
投资集团目前拥有新光硅业为38.80%的股
权，多晶硅在光伏产业链中的战略地位目前极
为突出，在国内最为成熟的多晶硅项目新光硅
业即将在07 年进入收获期的情况下，将一定
比例的新光硅业注入上市公司，形成电力、多
晶硅冶炼的上下游产业链。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
都是新光惹得祸！
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
另外，文中多处提到“英利”预测
－－－让人唏嘘

卡布里的月光

原帖由 yjg0133 于 2006-5-16 16:21 发表
招商的这个研究员,比我勇敢,这几天鼓了鼓勇气,说了说自己一直心里的观点.就是英利2年内比stp强,没有想到有人认为,0151比stp强.
用这个可能性的方法在去年这个时候研究0550,估计就没有什么云信的事情了，全是他们 ...

赞老哥。

此报告观点既否定了该类研究员以往对于600550的报告，也使人对其现在的报告产生了多重的怀疑。

在诸多的不确定性中，600550的确定性值得我们期待。

qinjiayu

Tue May 9, 2006 8:30 AM ET
   
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent
OSLO (Reuters) - Shares in Norwegian solar power firm Renewable Energy Corp (REC) (REC.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) soared on their debut on Tuesday, giving one of the world's leaders in exploiting the sun as an alternative to oil a value of $9.3 billion.

Buoyed by prospects for stellar growth, REC shares traded at 115.75 Norwegian crowns ($18.79) per share by 1153 GMT, up 22 percent from an initial public offering (IPO) at 95 crowns which was already at the top of an indicated range.

REC said the offering, Norway's largest since oil group Statoil (STL.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) was listed in 2001 and among the top 10 IPOs in the world so far this year by raising $1.08 billion, was 15 times oversubscribed.

"We've seen very great interest for REC, as for the entire solar energy business," chief Executive Erik Thorsen told a presentation at the Oslo bourse, beside two REC solar panels.
Founded in 1996 and with 1,100 staff, REC calls itself the world's biggest integrated solar power group. It says it is the biggest maker of solar-grade silicon and of multi-crystalline wafers, and among the top 20 makers of solar cells and modules.

Thorsen said other wafer and panel makers were hindered by a lack of access to solar-grade silicon. "We are not dependent on other suppliers to generate growth," he said.

Rivals include SolarWorld (SWVG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), Q-Cells (QCEG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), Suntech (STP.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Sunpower (SPWR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and ErSol (ES6G.DE: Quote, Profile, Research).

Among specialist silicon producers are Hemlock, Wacker Chemie (WCHG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), with a market capitalization of $6.3 billion, and MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR.N: Quote, Profile, Research), worth $10.2 billion.

"The position of REC is probably the best in the industry with its upstream integration," said Ottar Haugerud, an analyst at SEB Enskilda. "Others will follow but for the next three to five years, REC is probably uniquely placed."

GROWTH OUTLOOK "FORMIDABLE"

"The solar market offers formidable growth prospects," Thorsen said, projecting that solar energy could be the main source of power by 2100, eclipsing fossil fuels and other renewable energies such as wind or hydropower.   

He said REC was aiming to outstrip growth in the overall solar market and cut costs by 50 percent over five years. Solar stocks have been popular with oil prices above $70 a barrel.

President George W. Bush has spoken of breaking a U.S. addiction to oil and many other rich nations are seeking to cut use of fossil fuels to reach goals under the UN's Kyoto Protocol to restrict emissions of heat-trapping gases.

In 2005, REC had revenues of 2.5 billion Norwegian crowns, up 93 percent from 2004, and net profit of 3.9 million crowns.

Norway's DnB NOR Markets recently projected REC's net profit would soar to 1.12 billion crowns in 2007, giving a price/earnings ratio of 47 -- far above an average 13.7 for big companies on the Oslo bourse.

"REC'S received a strong reception," said Bruce Diesen, a strategist at Handelsbanken Markets. REC is the sixth biggest stock on the Oslo bourse, behind food-to media group Orkla (ORK.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) and ahead of cruise group Royal Caribbean (RCL.OL: Quote, Profile, Research).

Thorsen said that solar power was becoming competitive with other energy in Japan, where electricity is expensive, but lagging in major markets such as Germany and the United States. "We believe it will be competitive in five to six years," he said.

REC is based in sun-starved Norway partly because the Nordic nation has long traditions in producing metals -- including silicon -- thanks to abundant hydropower built a century ago.

REC sold 73 million new shares in the IPO, giving gross proceeds to REC of 6.91 billion crowns. In addition, 1.6 million existing shares were sold by shareholder Rebelijo Invest AS. REC has 494 million shares outstanding.     

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.



全产业链的太阳能公司  shines !!!

[ 本帖最后由 qinjiayu 于 2006-5-16 16:36 编辑 ]

hyswlzb

原帖由 trustking 于 2006-5-16 15:42 发表
..............
3. 4 月份形成35 兆瓦电池片产能
控股子太阳能科技公司30 兆瓦电池片生产线按照计划安装调试完毕，4 月份开始投入生产，目前形成35 兆
瓦电池片，超过80 兆瓦电池组件的年产能。我们预计全年业 ...

能否将整个报告原版放上来让大家见识见识.151今年产能80MW.不知实际产销量多少.干嘛不长天威及英利直接比较而要用尚德进行对比呢?相同市场对比不是更容易吗.明年PE达40.那天威该值多少钱呀!

qinjiayu

www.chinaview.cn 2006-04-21 08:18:14

    BEIJING, April 21 -- Solar energy is powering a new wave of overseas listings hopefuls from China, with up to five firms aiming for initial public offerings (IPOs) in the next 12 months as they bank on strong global demand for alternative energy sources.

    The surge in new offerings would come on the heels of the highly successful listing of Suntech Power Holdings Co., whose shares have more than doubled since it raised US$396 million in a New York listing last December.

    Since then, China's top semiconductor firm, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., has said it will manufacture solar cells as a sideline using recycled silicon from its primary operations.

    The current pipeline of Chinese IPO candidates includes Canadian Solar Inc., based in Suzhou near Shanghai, and Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co., based in the northern city of Baoding.

    Canadian Solar, also known as CSI, has hired an investment bank and could make its first public filing within weeks, with plans to raise at least US$100 million this summer, according to two sources.

    Yingli is a little further behind, but has already picked an investment bank, one source said.

    All the companies are cashing in on soaring global demand for energy, which has helped push oil prices to record highs and has made alternative energy sources more economically viable.

    At the same time, technological improvements have also helped raise the efficiency and lower the costs of solar technology. Many governments are also offering tax and other incentives to promote alternative energy sources.

    "Alternative energy always looks better when fossil fuel is expensive," said Kurt Berney, a China-based attorney at the law firm of O'Melveny and Myers.

    "These businesses are addressing a very real need. There's a chance you could see three to five of these guys coming out (with IPOs) by the end of the year."

    In the last few weeks alone, a handful of fast-growing solar cell makers in China have raised about US$250 million in venture capital, attesting to the sector's attraction, according to one source in the investment community.

    Based in the city of Wuxi, about a two-hour train ride from Shanghai, Suntech is the company that many of the listing candidates hope to follow.

    In its first quarterly earnings report since its listing, the company, whose founder became one of China's richest men based on his holdings, said its revenue last year nearly tripled to US$226 million from US$85 million in 2004.

    But despite the gain, its profits were flat in the fourth quarter due to rising silicon prices, a factor likely to create uncertainty and risk for the sector in the future.

    (Source: Shenzhen Daily/ Agencies)

oliveguy

原帖由 trustking 于 2006-5-16 15:42 发表
..............
3. 4 月份形成35 兆瓦电池片产能
控股子太阳能科技公司30 兆瓦电池片生产线按照计划安装调试完毕，4 月份开始投入生产，目前形成35 兆
瓦电池片，超过80 兆瓦电池组件的年产能。我们预计全年业 ...

公司成长性优于STP，一派胡言。

qinjiayu

What is most amazing is that the worldwide photovoltaic industry is still so small.

In our feature ”Photovoltaics - The Ultimate Renewable” we demonstrate why photovoltaics are a compelling long-term investment even at 2006 prices. In short, the reason you would pay a lifetime cost of $.20 per kilowatt-hour to install a photovoltaic system is because once you’d absorbed that initial installation cost, your annual cost to replace photovoltaics at the rate they degrade is well below the market price of conventional electricity, under $.02 per kilowatt-hour. For this reason, even at today’s high prices, photovoltaic manufacturers are selling them as fast as they can make them.

So why isn’t there more photovoltaic manufacturing capacity? Why is the installed base of photovoltaics in the world barely over 10 gigawatts?

Most photovoltaics are manufactured using polysilicon, the same semi-conductor substrate used for integrated circuits. For years, the photovoltaic manufacturers have bought their polysilicon from manufacturers who primarily produced this product for the computer industry. But in 2005, photovoltaic manufacturing output rose to over 1.6 gigawatts, and for the first time, the solar energy industry was competing with the computer industry to buy polysilicon. Photovoltaic panels consumed about one-third of the 30,000 tons of polysilicon produced worldwide in 2005, about 10,000 tons. Some people think there’s going to be a shortage of polysilicon, and in the short run, they’re probably right.

The economics of polysilicon production, however, rule out the possibility of a long term shortage. Currently polysilicon costs $60 per kilogram. According to an excellent report authored by Jesse Pichel and Ming Yang, Research Analysts with Piper Jaffray, posted on the website Renewable Energy Access, it costs $200 million to build a manufacturing plant capable of outputting 3,000 metric tons of polysilicon per year. That means that at $50 per kilogram, such a factory would gross $150 million every year. Considering the raw material, unprocessed silicon, is one of the most abundant materials on earth, the margins must be pretty good. When the photovoltaic industry only consumed 10% of the world’s polysilicon manfacturing capacity, manufacturers were reluctant to build new plants since the integrated circuit industry - their primary customer - is cyclical and experiences booms and busts. But now the solar cell manufacturers are consuming over 30% of worldwide polysilicon manufacturing capacity, with no end in sight. Demand from the photovoltaic segment is significant, sustainable, and growing fast.

This changes things. Look for the major polysilicon manufacturers – Hemlock, Tokuyama, Wacker, REC, and MEMC - to ramp up production significantly by 2008, and expect many new entrants.

Why, for example, aren’t the major solar customers for polysilicon – BP Solar, Energy Conversion, Evergreen Solar, Kyocera, Mitsubishi, Motech, Q-Cells, Sanyo, Sharp, Sunpower, Suntech, and Shell Solar - investing in their own polysilicon manufacturing?

For $200 million these value-added photovoltaic manufacturers can build their own polysilicon plants to create 3,000 tons of polysilicon per year, which at $50 per kilogram would have a market value of $150 million. When one considers that a kilogram of polysilicon can then be turned into a photovoltaic panel with an output of about 125 watts, then at a price of $2.00 per watt (much lower than today’s prices), another $750 million in revenue is possible per year per plant, or $600 million in margin after purchasing the polysilicon - plenty of money to cover the cost of the value-added processes to turn the polysilicon ingots into photovoltaic panels.

What is most amazing is that the worldwide photovoltaic industry is still so small. The entire world output of polysilicon for photovoltaic panels could be doubled with an investment of $600M for three plants producing 3,000 tons per year each. World energy consumption from all sources, last year, topped 20,000 gigawatts - and only 10 of these 20,000 gigawatts (that’s 0.05% or one-twentieth of one percent) were supplied by photovoltaics - the ultimate renewable. This industry is going to take off in a very, very big way.

好啦，今天基本面的资料不发了，自己留着看看吧。

[ 本帖最后由 qinjiayu 于 2006-5-16 16:53 编辑 ]

oliveguy

哪位消息流通人士说几句？

yjg0133

原帖由 zhuyl88 于 2006-5-16 13:05 发表
据有关专家言，如果中美两国的电网联网，中美的电力供应可以实现互补，可以节约大量能源投资。相信未来关于新能源的生产、存储、联网技术会快速发展。天威现在的发展是正确的，希望有一天成为爱克森美孚、bp一样的 ...

兄弟,但不是美国,是从俄罗斯.不信?一搜就有这方面的报道
正所谓南水北调,北煤南运.西气东输,西.南电东.南变.呵呵搞的不小喽

yywwkkcc

调查公司JStar警告：07年多晶硅供应缺口将达1万吨！

http://www.newenergy.com.cn  2006-5-16 9:23:00  日经BP社报道

　　调查公司日本JStar日前公布一项预测，半导体和太阳能电池所使用的多晶硅材料供应今后将更为紧张，2007年的供应缺口将超过1万吨。有可能阻碍半导体产业和太阳能电池产业的发展。为了满足半导体产业和太阳能电池产业的需求，今后至少需要近2000亿日元的设备投资来提高多晶硅材料的产量。

　　多晶硅材料之所以供应不足，一是其传统应用领域半导体需求正在稳步增长，二是太阳能电池的需求也在急剧增长。据JStar公司推算，2005年太阳能电池所消耗的多晶硅材料约为1万吨，在当年生产的约3万吨多晶硅总量中相当于1/3左右。太阳能电池对多晶硅的需求自2001至2005年一直在以平均45％的年增长率持续提高，假如这种趋势继续下去的话，2007年将达到约2万吨。这几乎等于2005年用于半导体的多晶硅产量。

　　JStar公司预测，半导体领域对多晶硅材料的需求今后也将保持强劲增长。因为平板电视、手机和笔记本电脑等领域对半导体的需求将继续看涨。WSTS（全球半导体市场统计）预计2006年和2007年全球半导体市场的规模增长分别为8％和10.6％。如果照此发展下去，半导体领域对多晶硅的需求2007年将超过2万5000吨。加上上面所说的太阳能电池领域的需求，2007年对多晶硅材料的总需求就将达到约4万5000吨。

　　而多晶硅产量的增长率自2001年至2005年平均增幅只有6％。如果今后仍维持现有水平，2007年多晶硅总产量预计将达到3万6000吨左右。根据以上数据综合分析，2007年多晶硅的供应缺口总计在9000吨～1万1000吨之间。业界普遍认为，每增加1000吨多晶硅材料，需要约200亿日元的设备投资。也就是说，为了增产约1万吨，总计将需要约2000亿日元的设备投资。（记者：大石 基之）

Byrron

QUOTE:
原帖由 trustking 于 2006-5-16 15:42 发表
..............
3. 4 月份形成35 兆瓦电池片产能
控股子太阳能科技公司30 兆瓦电池片生产线按照计划安装调试完毕，4 月份开始投入生产，目前形成35 兆
瓦电池片，超过80 兆瓦电池组件的年产能。我们预计全年业 ...

原帖由 yhohnsm 于 2006-5-16 16:13 发表

我就奇怪了．为什么此人不对600550预测目标位!看来现在的所谓研究报告也是替庄稼抬轿的!这样的话也许过不了多久,机构研究报告会像现在的股市咨询公司一样如过街老鼠,人人喊打!黑,真黑!!!!!!

      航天机电--太阳能毛利率太低       2006年04月06日 17:09 昆仑证券

    航天机电（600151）(行情,预警,轨迹,资讯)公布2005年报，每股收益0.138元，主营业收入18亿元、增长2.58%；净利润6458万元、下降38.24%；拟10转6股10派2元（含税）。

    评析：乍一见到航天机电的业绩居然是下降的，还真不敢相信，不过，公司也解释原因之一
是：公司参股的国泰君安和国泰投资管理公司计提了长期减值准备，合计减少年度收益1491万元。但是公司的太阳能产品的毛利率却实在太低，仅有15.67%，甚至还不如公司生产的汽车空调（毛利率17.78%），虽然来自太阳能的主营业收入较上年增加了176%，但成本增加更快、达231%，以至于太阳能毛利率同比下降了13.45%。公司持股70%的上海太阳能科技有限公司（最新注册资本1亿元），在2004年实现净利润1113万股，在2005年实现净利润2861万元，若增长速度，也够猛的，但若与无锡尚德（2005年净利润3062万美元）、天威英利（2005年实现净利润8480万元人民币）这两家国内公认的太阳能龙头相比，规模还差很多。不过，在股改停牌期间，它推出转6股的分红方案，也算是用心良苦。

Byrron

http://news1.jrj.com.cn/news/2006-04-06/000001464151.html

yjg0133

看看最近的研究报告,我只能说现在连研究员都开始搏傻了,,,,,,
所以,"金属"变成"今输"的可能性极高
所以,多晶硅就变成了都是龟.
所以,一跌,还是要回归基本面的.
千万别认为别人比自己知道的少,比自己傻.