第一次买进

yhohnsm

原帖由 qinjiayu 于 2006-4-4 13:48 发表
还是那句老话：

立足技术面的，要把握涨跌的节奏，当然其中滋味需要敏感的心灵去体会；

立足基本面的，要把握趋势的方向，当然其中的无常需要坚忍的心灵去承受。 ...

我们缺少的可能就是坚忍的心灵,不然主力不会这样嚣张,主力坚信这样做会达到他的目的!

the_top

After some anticipation, we were rather pleased to see the IPO go forward too for thepure-play
solar PV maker SunTech Power (STP) late in the Fourth Quarter of 2005. Like SPWR, this is another
opportunity to add to the Index another unique PV equity and one that helps to capture daily
movement of solar stocks.

SunTech is based in China: they make relatively lower-cost polycrystalline and mono-crystalline
PV products. On the day of their IPO, shares in STP increased about 41%, which by coincidence
was about the same that SunPower saw on its first day of trading. Much like a recent initial offering
for SPWR, this indicates there may be some investor interest in solar. Being a foreign firm,their shares
trade as American Depository Shares: hence adding this non-U.S. company to the WilderHill Index
(ECO) might to some limited extent help also mitigate (U.S.) country-specific risk and further the
non-correlation of ECO with majorindexes.

We’re mindful too that modern portfolio theory holds that diversification beyond just one nation can
reduce risk and assist long-term performance. But most importantly, we’re interested in STP mainly
for its Indexing value in the solar sector.

SunTech is based in the Jiangsu Province of China and although it’s a young company,their growth to
date is strong: in the first nine months of 2005, net revenues increased to $137 million (nearly tripling)
from the year prior. They aim to use IPO proceeds to expand research, manufacturing and to lower
costs. They expect to spend about $100 million from the IPO proceeds to prepay for raw materials
such as silicon, $40 million to expand manufacturing, and $20 million on research and development.

At present their cost per watt is fairly good at $2.30 and they’re especially notable as a PV maker
that has been profitable annually since 2003 (almost since start-up).They’re able to make use of
China’s relatively inexpensive materials and labor, and hope to reduce cost per watt significantly further.
They presently have sizable sales into Germany (and Japan where high retail costs being paid per watt
to utilities have been a boon to PV sales, but government PV subsidies in Japan are going to end).
To some extent,a lack of history contributes to dearth of knowledge about particulars of this company
and their technologies specifically. SunTech was founded in 2001, by Dr. Zhengrong Shi and he has a
scientific background in solar research.The newer holding company “Suntech Power Holdings Co.,Ltd.”
was recently incorporated in the Cayman Islands and it has become the ultimate holding company of
Suntech. One drawback to be sure, is they’re clearly a far less transparent business than say, a
U.S.-based solar manufacturer; there’s real differences stemming from China’s nascent business
regulatory environment, language difficulties, distance, etc. Perhaps to some extent that uncertainty
and hence the greater risk is factored into their stock pricing, yet they have met particular thresholds
to be listed here on U.S. exchanges.

A core question we ask ourselves as an Index provider, is whether STP shares help tocapture and
track clean energy. They should be in a business that stands to benefit substantially from any societal
transition toward cleaner energy and conservation, they should be a significant company for clean
energy, have some technological influence, and be relevant to preventing pollution in the first place.
We’re satisfied that SunTech meets these criteria, though we note issues of transparency, etc.

They’re now a top-10 producer of solar cells — around the fifth largest by capacity — although growth
seems almost the norm lately for many PV makers(chart source: Photon International,and Piper Jaffray).
The company claims its average conversion efficiency rates are 16.5% for its monocrystalline cells, and
15% for its polycrystalline cells. Those rates aren’t as high as those at SunPower for example, but they
are respectable and STP may hold growing promise as a low-cost and high volume pure-play producer,
especially going into the important Japanese, German, and Chinese markets. The company claims it
increased manufacturing capacity by 12-fold the past three years (from a base very near-zero,however)
and that they’re planning to double capacity again by the end of 2006.

A ‘role’ too for SunTech for the Index, is that being a fast-growing PV pure-play, its share price should
(pessimistically) drop robustly — should government solar subsidies be pared back unexpectedly,
oil prices drop dramatically, or other big negative news hit PV. We seek to capture sharp decline,
just as fully as upwards movements. On the other hand, we note that fast-growing China is increasing
its silicon capacity. In Q4 for example, a 100-unit order was placed to purchase DSS multi-crystal silicon
ingot wafer growth furnaces from GT Equipment Technologies.
That will allow ‘LDK Solar Hi-Tech’ based in Jiangxi, China to swiftly ramp their annual wafer fabrication
capacity from 75 MW at present, to 200 MW. LDK aims to expand up to 400 MW by 2008. This
follows on the prior furnace orders from Chinese companies, such as from Baoding.

Finally we note SunTech purports to be a major supplier of PV for China’s government
— a domestic market which may one day conceivably grow much larger than Japan or Germany.
SunTech is involved in China’s ‘Light the West” Program and is PV provider for their foreign aid
program. China has made ambitious claims about their desire to build smart energy-savings,
to grow renewables, and about clean energy in general

[ 本帖最后由 the_top 于 2006-4-4 16:15 编辑 ]

星光黯然

这板块的大哥萎了~~~~~~~小弟们能起来当家吗
你们看600482   600416   0930  明天还得看大哥的脸色吗?

kutn

原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-4 13:01 发表
结论:天威还要继续调整,短期不会大幅上扬!调整周期至少3个星期已上!再局部牛市的情况下,资金成本十分重要,个人建议长线看好可继续持有,但应分仓角逐热点,防止该股长期震荡,挣指数不挣钱!短线可在冲高时出局,等季报 ...

老兄做的如何呢？

guliu123

shine2008真是越来越强了，厉害，佩服！

江恩角度线

没有你们说的这么好!

mdf

也就本周再调整一周,下周又开始拉升了

yjg0133

原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-4 13:01 发表
结论:天威还要继续调整,短期不会大幅上扬!调整周期至少3个星期已上!再局部牛市的情况下,资金成本十分重要,个人建议长线看好可继续持有,但应分仓角逐热点,防止该股长期震荡,挣指数不挣钱!短线可在冲高时出局,等季报 ...

呵呵,又在重复老调了,你怎么想起了2月初,你忘了三月末,这么聪明,17.6以上的时候怎么不来提醒大家?
就算你说的都对.然后哪?

雨下走好路

原帖由 kutn 于 2006-4-4 18:49 发表



老兄做的如何呢？

坦率的讲非常一般,整体收益在这么大的行情下只有60%,因为去年底至今年初相当部分拿天威,虽然14元做了一波高抛,但这一波我也以为该大涨,结果那天跌破17元才跑,在天威上收益只有30%多一点,别的部分仓位收益还可以,所以平均下来只有近60%,也许你认为我60%的收益都不满有点自我表吹嘘的可能,但是我告诉你在2004年我最大收益是200%多,2005主我做的是洪都航空,你说我2005的收益是多少!    我知道这论坛高手很多,藏龙卧虎,我希望和真正的高手通过天威交个朋友,可以互相交流  .但我也知道这个论坛自我吹嘘的人也不少,  为表明本人不是不是吹牛.本人可以提供以下对帐单证明:            1.002002.江苏琼花2004.625买单.价为14.07.注:中小企业板开市头一天介入的人基本全部严重亏损,唯一一只可能不亏的就是买入该股,而且必需在15元以下才有从容拖身的机会,该股最低价14.05.本人从14.5元以下买到14.07,当天最大获利近8元!                        2.2004 9  14   南方汇通  11.52元买单 .注:大盘绵绵下跌后中级反弹的第一天,集和竞价高买南方汇通和达安基因,达安基因 11.80未买到,南方汇通11.52即为当天最低价,令人更为满意的是开盘后在别人犹疑的时候连续买入000920至12.元.           3.2004.10.29 卖南方汇通17.95至17.5元  .注:有条件的人可以看当日分时,  000920当时公布签订30亿大单不久,一片看好,该日低开后走高,下午一直在17.9元一线缩量横盘,从表面看与往日无异,本人却看出感受到深刻危机,2点以后开始小单卖出,果不其然尾市突然跳水,本人只有一路跟卖,最低卖到了跳水最低价17.5元!周一开盘把剩的不足10分之一的仓位17.14跑掉,该股周一跌停,连续暴跌至12元!   该古连续大涨.               4.  2004 11.10  飞乐音响   5.44元.  注:两天后该股连续7个涨停!            5   2005 7 .4 _7.12山东黄金.注:价值投资的理念买入,8.7元,失利与公司治理结构的黑暗!8.34元卖出后该公司第二天业绩修正公告,股价大幅下挫,如果该公司董秘还有记忆,那么7.12日早上我对该公司强烈的质疑他应该记忆犹新!虽然他始终不承认公司业绩出现了问题(这就是中国股市的悲哀,第而天都要发公告了,头一天还死不承认)但我从他的语气中已推断出公司将出现问题!           6.2005.6月开始5.7_6.2元一线买如洪都航空.注:持有该股需要和持有天威一样的耐心,但该股使我或得了远超大盘的收益,但遗撼的是天威使我收益远不如大盘!                                            当然还有很多成功或失利的交易,有的获利更多,但我认为如果你对照k线观察我上面的交易,你回发现这些交易比较能体现一个人综合素质!　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　:*19*:我的本意：我知道这论坛高手很多,藏龙卧虎,我希望和真正的高手通过天威交个朋友,可以互相交流  .但我也知道这个论坛自我吹嘘的人也不少,  为表明本人不是不是吹牛.本人可以提供以下对帐单证明:

multicast

yjg0133

上次你是什么价格买的,那么这次你准备多少价格进来?不坊说说嘛...

yjg0133

我只知道,部分达到100%.平均达到50%可以理解
   部分达到50%.平均达到100%.一定是牛人
或者是短线高手,做了好几个品种,或者有其他的品种一定翻了倍

兄弟,我跟你混了,明天全部卖了天威,你说该买什么?.

雨下走好路

原帖由 yjg0133 于 2006-4-4 20:45 发表


呵呵,又在重复老调了,你怎么想起了2月初,你忘了三月末,这么聪明,17.6以上的时候怎么不来提醒大家?
就算你说的都对.然后哪?

我想你如果看过我的言论你会发现我永远不会言之无物，只是就事论事，如果我记的不错三月末我曾就风险投资投资英利的每股价格对比无锡尚德来说大家想的高的太多提醒过大家，像卡不的１．５亿或其他人的２．５亿，按当时大家认为的２亿股总股本来说每股高达７＿１２元，对现在来说就是风险投资１４＿２４元入股英利，你觉的可能吗？？（英利股本缩小至１亿，业绩提高一倍）风险投资投资是要高赢利的，但当时大家一片看好，谁注意到这件事了？？我们假设发生了风险投资３美元一股入股英利，远低于大家的预期，那么天威回怎么走？？？股市我们看多，就要想到利空可能的发生，看空的同时也要想到利多的可能发生．不知我说的对不？？？

fredfujing

密切关注！！

雨下走好路

原帖由 multicast 于 2006-4-4 20:54 发表

本身也没吹的意思，在这吹对我也没什么好处！我只是抛砖引玉，想结交几个高手而已，我再说一遍我可以提供对帐单，请问哪位敢提供对帐交割单的啊！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！

ylx888

--> 厉害啊！！

the_top

Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co. is preparing for an overseas initial
public offering( IPO) , on the heels of its larger rival Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) based in eastern China.

As the country's second biggest integrated solar cell manufacturer, Tianwei Yingli plans to debut at the
New York Stock Exchange this year with the aim of collecting approximately CNY 3 billion of proceeds,
people close to it said.

The company, based in Baoding, a midsize city in the northern province of Hebei, was founded in 1998.
Presently, it is owned by two local firms, Tianwei Baobian Electric Co. (600550. SH) with a 51 percent
stake and Yingli Group the remaining.

Tianwei Baobian has just become the second largest shareholder in a silicon producer located in
southwestern China with an annual output of more than 1,000 tons, thus providing adequate raw
materials to Tianwei Yingli.

Reportedly, a consortium led by Goldman Sachs may succeed in a bid to acquire
a 25 percent stake in Tianwei Yingli after beating JPMorgan and Warburg Pincus.

The forthcoming IPO is believed to be encouraged by Suntech Power.

Based in Wuxi of Jiangsu Province, Suntech Power last December sold American Depository Shares at
USD 15 a piece and collected as much as USD 400 million at the New York Stock Exchange, thus
becoming China's largest private company listed on the US market.

The shares jumped 41 percent on the first day on investors' strong demands. The price hit a record high
of USD 45.95 on January 23.

Zhengrong Shi, founder and chairman of Suntech Power, has become the richest businessman in China
with a personal wealth of almost USD 2 billion, reports said, as his company continues to perform well at
the big board.

The success is bound to make US investors familiar with Chinese solar companies and willing to pour huge
investments to Tianwei Yingli, they added.

Tianwei Yingli will see the production capacity surge by six times once finishing the Phase 3 construction
of the Multi Crystal Silicon Ingot project in 2008.

The production capacity of solar cell, also called photovoltaic cell,is to jump from the current 70 megawatts
to 570 megawatts, silicon wafer from 60 megawatts to 560 megawatts, as well as piles from 100
megawatts to 600 megawatts.

The project, with an investment of CNY 3.6 million, is scheduled to start construction in the coming April
or May.

Suntech Power, the No. 1 in China, is expected to manufacture 300 megawatts solar cells and 360
megawatts piles in 2007.

Suntech once planned to acquire some stake in Tianwei Yingli through share swaps. But the plan failed
because the latter needs cash only, insiders revealed. The two have joined hands recently, however.

They on January 8 signed an initial agreement, under which Suntech is to participate in the aforesaid
expensive project. They are likely to extend cooperation to the overseas markets.

Chinese PV firms, including the two, sell the lion's share of their products to overseas markets, especially
to Germany.

China's top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission
vows to pour CNY 10 billion over the next five years to promote the solar energy development.

The PV cell installed capacity is estimated to climb to 600 megawatts by 2010.

(USD 1 = CNY 8.0284)

[ 本帖最后由 the_top 于 2006-4-4 22:01 编辑 ]

雨下走好路

我想说的我看空短期的天威，它也不一定要跌，我也不是股神，我想说的是天威的走势会极复杂，不会想想向的那样简单！同时我还想说的是无论前一段或目前以后一定时间里，持有天威远不如持有其他许多股票好！我说的是不是事实我想你会有判断！这是我个人的经验和教训！如过你关注卡布，你会发现卡布很早都挖掘出天威（这我很佩服）．卡布我问你一句从去年初到现在你一直推荐重点天威的的同时恐怕其他做的和推荐的股票也不下百只了吧，哈哈！其他许多人呢？？买进就爱的不得了，看的全都是它的好，听不得一点不同意见，我想如果明天或２个月后股票涨了，谩骂之声铺天而来，其实你看看我说的有道理吗！记住，股票没有绝对涨或跌，股票做的是涨或跌的概率，只要道理对，你对的概率总是大！！！！！！！不知几人能理解！！！！

xintai55

原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-4 21:23 发表

本身也没吹的意思，在这吹对我也没什么好处！我只是抛砖引玉，想结交几个高手而已，我再说一遍我可以提供对帐单，请问哪位敢提供对帐交割单的啊！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！

对帐单现在造假也很多,没有说你的意思,大家可以通过550和大盘交流看法,路遥知马力

我相信能够长线持有550/316等股票的,具备高手的素质,所以这个帖子中确实有很多高手,我相信大家即使做短线也不会差

雨下走好路

原帖由 xintai55 于 2006-4-4 21:57 发表


对帐单现在造假也很多,没有说你的意思,大家可以通过550和大盘交流看法,路遥知马力

我相信能够长线持有550/316等股票的,具备高手的素质,所以这个帖子中确实有很多高手,我相信大家即使做短线也不会差

哈哈，具体的单量当时的盘口走势恐怕不是造假的人说的出来的吧！